Fed’s 50% Recession Warning: What the Beige Book Just Revealed!

In today’s episode of The Daily Windup, we break down what the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is really saying — and why it’s sending a chilling warning most investors are ignoring. According to the Fed’s own field reports, economic activity has “declined slightly” across three-quarters of the U.S., with only a handful of districts showing modest growth. The tone of this Beige Book is weaker than December 2007 — the start of the Great Recession. Even the Fed’s internal staff now estimates a 50% chance of recession, while the market continues to price in 0% risk. In short: the data is flashing red, but Wall Street’s acting like it’s business as usual.

Key Takeaways:

• The Fed’s Beige Book reveals that ¾ of the U.S. economy is stagnating or contracting in real time.

• The report’s tone is weaker than the Beige Book from the start of the 2008 crisis.

• Even the Fed staff pegs recession odds at 50%, yet the market is still pricing in zero risk.

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