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Pete Newsome (00:00):
Today's job market
headlines include how HR and IT
are teaming up to handle AI'sworkplace disruption, a Chinese
AI researcher's new boldprediction, and China's new
answer to America's H1B visa.
But first, the U.S.
economy is holding up, but theFed sees early signs of a hiring
slowdown.
This is according to Mary Daly,who is president and CEO of the
(00:23):
Federal Reserve Bank of SanFrancisco.
She posted an article todaytitled Policy Making
Amid-Change.
It examines how the U.S.
economy continues to showresilience despite multiple
headwinds, including tariffs,shifts in immigration,
deregulation, tax policychanges, and of course the
AI-driven wave of technologicalinnovation.
(00:43):
Her post highlights that labormarket conditions have weakened
noticeably, which suggestsdemand for workers has fallen.
Immigration declines havesharply reduced labor force
growth from roughly 150,000 inearly 24 to about 50,000 per
month in early 25, but despitethat, wage growth has slowed
rather than risen, and thatsignals that labor demand is
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declining.
And at this point, everyone whoparticipates in the labor
market, from workers to hiringmanagers, in my opinion, just
needs to prepare for continuedvolatility.
I believe that is what we canexpect for the foreseeable
future.
And although anticipatedinterest rate cuts can offer
short-term relief, and the Fedseems to signal that they're
going to continue to do that,that won't solve the structural
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challenges tied to immigrationand labor participation.
And the Fed's tone in thisarticle suggests caution, but
also optimism that policyflexibility, supported by clear
evidence, can help navigate bothinflation and innovation
successfully.
It's easy to criticize them,but that's a challenging task
with what's happening right now.
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It's a moving target.
Everything seems to be a movingtarget.
And as I said, I don't see thatchanging anytime soon.
So interesting article, worthchecking out.
Next, AI is transforming theworkplace so fast that HR and IT
are becoming strategic allies.
Who would have seen thatcoming?
Not me.
But the Wall Street Journalreports that corporate human
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resources and technologydepartments are now
collaborating to manage AI'simpact on jobs.
Companies like Microsoft, Cisco,Moody's, PWC, and indeed are
rethinking org charts to includewhat they call digital workers.
Those are AI agents thatcomplete human tasks.
While these businesses andothers are preparing for AI's
impact, job cuts haveaccelerated.
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U.S.
companies cut 153,000 jobs inOctober, which is nearly tripled
the month before.
And IDC forecasts that by nextyear, 40% of global 2,000 jobs
will require working alongsideAI agents, while also warning
that AI-driven burnout couldreduce productivity by 15% in
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2027.
So as a result of this, HR andIT leaders are focused on
helping employees see AI as acollaborator rather than a
competitor.
I hear that a lot lately.
It's almost constant.
People worried that AI is goingto take their job, so they're
hesitant to adopt it, eventhough it's being forced by
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companies, and rightfully so, itshould, or they'll be left
behind the curve.
So that's happening at a reallyrapid pace right now, and the
workforce is having to figureall of this out.
Moody's chief people officersummarized it by saying AI is
the tool, the people are thepower.
I think that's great, and I buyinto that, but the staff has to
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believe it.
The workers have to believe ittoo.
And I just know that is not avery prevalent thing in many
companies where when AI comesin, the workers are afraid it's
going to take their jobs, andrightfully so.
Who wouldn't be?
So it's definitely worthmanaging, and I understand why
HR is needed now more than everin that regard.
Because this story reallyunderscores how rapidly AI is
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moving from a technicalchallenge to a people challenge.
And the partnership between HRand IT is no longer optional.
I would say it's been less thansmooth over the years and many
times.
And I say this as an ITstaffing company owner who's
often been in the middle ofthose battles, but it's becoming
essential right now forworkforce stability and
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productivity.
And what I just findfascinating is how companies are
treating this AI transformationas both a cultural and
operational issue, and it's notjust a technology upgrade.
So this is going to happen forthe foreseeable future.
So companies are adopting it,the workers have to adapt.
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It's and there's going to bewinners and losers as a result.
So the companies that arefocused on this collaboration, I
think it makes a lot of sense.
Don't leave it to chance.
In other news, a Chinese AIresearcher just said what most
technology leaders won't (04:51):
that
automation could wipe out entire
job sectors within a decade.
This was at the World InternetConference in Wu Zin, China,
where Deep Seek seniorresearcher Chendelli issued a
warning that artificialintelligence could replace most
jobs within the next 10 to 20years.
I mean, 20 years is anincredibly long amount of time
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in the AI space.
So is 10.
I mean, so is five, quitefrankly.
So I don't think it's thatgroundbreaking of a statement.
I believe we should be focusedon a much sooner time frame than
that.
But nonetheless, he was thererepresenting uh DeepSeek, which
really doesn't make many publicstatements or appearances, but
good for him.
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He called on technology firmsto act as guardians of humanity
by protecting human safety andhelping society navigate the
upheaval AI may cause.
He also said that the world iscurrently in an AI honeymoon
phase.
I find that an interesting wayto say it, and I tend to agree
with him, where people are usingit to enhance productivity, but
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still requiring humanoversight.
He cautioned this balance willshift as AI systems become
increasingly autonomous with thepotential to create widespread
job displacement.
He said technology companiesshould serve as whistleblowers,
warning society of potentialrisks.
That's happening in some cases,but at the same time, other AI
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companies specifically arefast-forwarding towards creating
mass adoption of AI.
And as automation accelerates,it's not hard to imagine in the
not too distant future whereroutine work is handled largely
by machines.
And many people are stillskeptical of that.
I think that's what scares mein this because I'd much rather
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be overly cautious here.
And it sounds like that's astance he's taken too.
So I'm really glad to see anarticle like this because it
captures what I consider to bean important and growing truth
that AI transcends borders.
This is not about US and China.
This is about what it could doto the world.
And AI's biggest challengeisn't technical, it's human.
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So this call for technologycompanies to behave really with
looking out for humanity as awhole, I think makes a lot of
sense.
It should resonate not onlywith business leaders, but
hopefully political leaderseverywhere.
And finally, for today, Chinajust launched its version of the
U.S.
H1B visa, and it's coming forglobal technology talent.
Their new program is aimed atattracting foreign professionals
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in AI, robotics, andsemiconductors.
And unlike existing visas, itdoesn't require a job offer
before applying.
And this move follows U.S.
restrictions under PresidentTrump, including raising H 1B
visa fees to $100,000, whichcould push global talent to
explore alternatives.
But despite that, China facesobvious hurdles from censorship
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and language barriers todomestic tension.
And this is happening whilethere's currently 18% youth
unemployment over there, andthat's ages 16 to 24, excluding
students.
So massive unemployment amongyoung people.
Sound familiar?
We're not nearly that extremeover here with our entry-level
job hiring challenges right now,but it's not a coincidence
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either.
That what's we're seeing inChina is similar in many ways to
what we're experiencing overhere in the U.S.
Um, and look, there's noquestion that the US remains
more attractive for countlessreasons, but China is clearly
trying to seize on this momentwith all the uncertainties
around visa visas happening hereright now, and they're trying
to attract the best talent onthe planet in the technology
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space.
So my take on our visas remainsthe same as it has been for
more than a decade.
It serves an incredibly valuablepurpose, but only when it's
used as intended.
And the the best thing we cando is shut down the abuse and
make sure that we're focused onbringing in the talent it's
intended for.
And maybe now more than ever,since China's trying to do the
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same thing.
It's not something they'vehistorically done.
The Trump administration hastaken a step, a very necessary
step, in the right direction.
But we need to not take ourfoot off the gas with this
either.
And I'm sure I have no doubtthat they will pay close
attention to what exactlyChina's doing with their
programs right now.
So that will be interesting tomonitor over time.
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Before we close today, thoseare your headlines.
Here's a fun fact, maybe not sofun fact, but the most common
reason for an employee to quittheir job is a bad relationship
with their boss.
You might think it's money orcommute or difficulty at work,
but if it is, if there's someonewho's having a challenge at
work, it can almost always besolved or exacerbated by their
(09:28):
relationship with their boss.
And so if you're a manager outthere, pay close attention to
that, treat your team well, andodds are they'll probably stay
with you a really long time.
So those are your headlines fortoday.
Thank you for listening.
Please like, subscribe, sharewith anyone who you think might
be interested, and I lookforward to talking to you
tomorrow.