Breaking Job News: America’s Vanishing Jobs, 2025 Pay Trends, & the Federal Pay Freeze

Is the job market really cooling or just recalibrating?

New data from PayScale paints a more complex picture: unemployment is rising, participation is declining, yet wages are still increasing in critical, high-stakes sectors. From energy and electronics to construction and compliance, pay growth now follows scarcity, risk, and reliability. Host Pete Newsome breaks down which roles are leading the charge (think utilization review coordinators, IT project managers, and internal auditors) and what that means for your 2026 planning.

Then we turn to the federal shutdown, now stretching past a month, as more than 700,000 workers face prolonged furloughs and uncertain back pay. Pete unpacks the human and institutional toll, lost morale, eroding retention, and the quiet exodus of top talent, and explores how leaders can make clear, deliberate decisions before dysfunction does it for them.

Finally, Pete zooms out to America’s vanishing jobs, from the farm to the factory to the algorithm. The shift from manual labor to digital leverage isn’t new, but AI is accelerating the cycle. We share practical strategies to adapt, including mapping tasks to automation, measuring outcomes, and upskilling where human judgment still prevails.

Whether you’re managing payroll or navigating your next career move, the message is the same: choose precision over panic and adapt early.
 
👉 What do you think: Are we witnessing a cooling market or a quiet reinvention of work?

News Articles:
1. Pay trends and modern market pricing in the age of AI: https://www.payscale.com/featured-content/pay-trends-report
2. Shutdown furloughs extended to late Nov: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2025/10/feds-told-shutdown-furloughs-extended-to-late-november/
3. The biggest careers that have now vanished, according to data: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/03/what-common-jobs-have-mostly-disappeared-us-heres-data/

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/petenewsome/
Blog Articles: https://www.4cornerresources.com/blog

Episode Transcript

Pete Newsome (00:00):
Today's job market headlines tell us that the
federal government shutdown maystretch deep into November, and
there's a story about jobs thatwere once very common in
American careers, but havealmost vanished entirely.
But first, PayScale's 2025 PayTrends report says the U.S.
labor market is finally coolingafter several red hot years.

(00:21):
Now, we know that at thispoint.
That isn't news, but it's a newreport that just came out.
It shows that job growth isstalling, unemployment is up to
4.3%, and job participation hasdipped to 62%.
And despite that, wages arestill outpacing inflation, at
least in some areas.
High demand sectors likeenergy, electronics, and

(00:43):
construction are seeing thebiggest pay jumps, while lower
wage workers continue to lagbehind.
On average, companies plan 3.5%salary increases for 2026, which
is down slightly from lastyear.
Roles showing the fastest wagegrowth include utilization
review coordinators, IT projectmanagers, and internal auditors.

(01:04):
These are jobs that are alltied to risk, regulation, and
operational reliability.
And the job market is alwaysdriven by supply and demand, but
that's exaggerated right now.
So for employers, be selectivewhen it comes to giving raises,
hires, and of course,terminations.
And for workers, it's importantto be pragmatic right now.

(01:26):
Know where you are in themarket, know your value, if you
will, and stay close with what'shappening.
Because I'd love to tell youthat things are going to get
better, and I'd love to tell youthey're getting going to get
better in the near future.
But I'm just not seeing signs ofthat.
And this report is justindicative of what all the other
data is showing.
There's improvements in someareas, but overall, we're just

(01:49):
stuck in neutral.
And that seems to be themessage that unfortunately will
be around for a while unlessthings turn a little bit worse.
And I want to be optimistic,but it is really important just
to take an honest view of thecurrent situation.
And right now, it's just goodto operate with precision above

(02:10):
all else.
That's probably the best way tophrase it.
In the next headline, thegovernment shutdown is now past
31 days, and agencies arewarning furloughed employees
that it could stretch throughlate November.
Departments like Commerce,Justice, Homeland Security,
NASA, and the GSA have sent newfurlough notices extending
unpaid leave to roughly 700,000workers.

(02:31):
And the big question currentlyis about retroactive pay.
Some of the letters, includingNASA's, say back pay isn't
guaranteed unless Congresswrites it into the final funding
bill.
That contradicts priorprecedent under the Government
Employee Fair Treatment Act,which previously ensured back
pay after shutdowns.
So we're entering unchartedterritory, not necessarily good.

(02:53):
And there are more than 1.4million federal employees who
missed a paycheck this week,with half of them still working
without pay.
So, regardless of how you feelabout federal workers, many
people out there believe that wehave way too many.
There's too much bloat in thefederal government.
I won't weigh in on that rightnow, but you have to feel

(03:13):
empathy for these workers whocertainly don't deserve this.
No one should be making thatcase, at least I hope not.
And the longer this goes on, themore likely it is that they're
going to start to jump ship.
And many of them, probably themost skilled public servants,
are going to be the ones who dothat first.
And when something like thishappens, morale, retention,
trust, if that exists at allanymore, and then recruitment is

(03:36):
going to take years to rebuild.
So look, Congress needs to act.
We know that.
And again, if you're one ofthose people who think, hey, we
just have too many workers, thisis ultimately a good thing.
This isn't the way to do it.
If cuts are needed, make thecuts.
If there is too much bloat,address that.
But don't do it under thefederal shutdown and using that

(03:59):
as an opportunity to haveworkers just become frustrated
and leave.
It is just a no-win situationright now in that scenario.
So we shouldn't be doing itthis way.
And then finally for today,there's a story in the
Washington Post about jobs thathave vanished.
Now, this is from theirDepartment of Data answering
what's really a fascinatingquestion about which once really

(04:22):
prevalent American jobs havemostly disappeared.
And the winner by a mile isfarmer.
In 1860, about 32% of allAmerican workers worked on
farms.
32%?
I mean, that is unbelievable.
One out of three Americanworkers in 1860 worked on a
farm.
And today that number, just0.3%.

(04:42):
Other lost trades includeblacksmiths, shoemakers,
tailors, and sailors.
Okay, no surprise hearingthose.
Maybe we don't hear those jobtitles anymore.
They're not the same way thatthey used to exist.
And these jobs that shape theearly American economy have been
replaced by industrializationand then later automation, and
that continues to increase.

(05:03):
And miners, who were once 2.5%of the workforce, now only make
up about 0.1%.
Now economists call thisstructural transformation, when
productivity growth pushesworkers into new kinds of jobs,
first factories, then retail,now technology and services.
So we see this happening.
It's a really interestingarticle in Washington Post about

(05:25):
this, so I advise checking itout, because we are living this
right now as a new era rushesforward with AI.
And while history shows us thatevery era thinks its jobs will
last forever until the next waveof innovation arrives, this
shift now is going to be vastlydifferent than when we went from

(05:46):
farms to factories.
This AI evolution is happeningat a rapid pace, unlike anything
we've ever seen before.
And I will continue to bang thegong, sound like Chicken
Little, whatever it might be,and say, don't be surprised by
what's happening and therapidity with which it is
happening, because I don't thinkthis cycle is going to be like

(06:09):
the ones before.
And there will be winners andlosers from this, no doubt about
that.
And those winners are going tobe the ones who adapt early.
So pay attention to what'shappening with AI, be ahead of
the curve if at all possible.
And then in closing, your funfact for today is that before
the Industrial Revolution, workwas often dictated by the

(06:30):
seasons and natural daylight,not the clock.
Not a coincidence that I'msharing that today with daylight
savings having just kicked in.
And people worked shorterwinter days, longer summer ones,
and rested between planting andharvest.
Well, that was a big deal whenthe workforce was at 32%, worked
on farms.

(06:50):
I still can't believe that.
I mean, I know it's true, butthat is hard to believe that
life in 1860 was so different.
And now with remote work andflexible schedules, and you
know, we just daylight justdoesn't matter anymore.
Here we are in the comfort ofour own homes or air conditioned
buildings with lights and Wi-Fiand internet.
Um, just much different than alife of roosters and sundials.

(07:15):
So there's your headlines fortoday.
Thank you for listening.
Please like, subscribe, sharewith anyone you think might be
interested, and I look forwardto talking to you soon.