Breaking Job News: Job Growth Is Flat, Tenure Shakeups, & Tri-State Job Cuts Deepen

The hiring headlines don’t match the reality, and that mismatch tells the real story. ADP’s latest data shows negative net job growth, yet the share of new hires is rising. How? Host Pete Newsome breaks down the hidden engine behind today’s labor market: a shrinking labor force, rapid retirements among workers 55+, and a wave of replacement hiring that keeps companies running in place rather than expanding. Even as roles refill, new-hire wage growth is the slowest on record, reshaping leverage for job seekers.

Pete also dug into the New York Fed’s newest read on the Northeast service economy, where the employment index has fallen to its lowest level in years. Three consecutive months of job cuts, modest wage gains, and near-flat expectations reveal a defensive hiring posture: leaders trimming at the margins, freezing pay bands, and backfilling only the essentials for candidates, which translates to slower offers, tighter compensation, and a hiring process that feels stickier than the topline numbers suggest.

Then he turns to tenure data from Indeed. Sixteen percent of new hires start applying elsewhere within three months, and the shortest stays cluster in frontline roles with lower pay, demanding hours, and limited advancement. Meanwhile, the longest tenures show up in credentialed, creative, or specialized work, where skills compound, relationships deepen, and career paths are clear. The message for employers is straightforward: reward depth, invest in training, fix scheduling pain points, and build visible mobility if you want people to stay.

News Articles:
1. The Long and Short of Job Tenure: https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/11/18/the-long-and-short-of-job-tenure/
2. ADP's The NER Pulse: https://www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-is-sluggish-but-new-hires-are-on-the-upswing-how/
3. NY Fed Business Leaders Survey: https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview#tabs-2

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Episode Transcript

Pete Newsome (00:00):
Today's job market headlines include an update
from the New York Fed and abreakdown on employee tenure
from Indeed.
But first, we're losing jobswhile new hires are increasing.
How is that possible?
According to ADP's NationalEmployment Report released this
morning, private employersreduced jobs by an average of
2,500 a week for the four weeksending November 1st.

(00:22):
Net job growth is negative, yetin October, new hires made up
4.4% of all employees, which isup from 3.9% a year earlier.
That's counterintuitive.
Hiring has accelerated comparedwith the prior year, while new
hires are a larger share of theworkforce.
And that's happening becausethe U.S.
labor force is shrinking.

(00:43):
Participation dropped, whichmeans fewer people are working
or looking for work.
With more workers retiring andexiting, employers have to
backfill roles even whenbusiness demand isn't rising.
As ADP's chief economist pointsout, 36% of the workforce is now
55 or older.
And that was less than 25% just10 years ago.

(01:04):
So boomers are retiring, seatsare opening up, and companies
have to scramble just to replacethem and stay at the same level
they were.
So unfortunately, it'sreplacement hiring, not
expansion hiring.
Also, new hire pay isstagnating.
Annual gross pay for new hiresrose only 1.7% year over year,
which is down from 2.8% the yearprior.

(01:27):
That is a huge dip.
Median hourly pay is held at$18 for 16 straight months.
It hasn't moved in that long.
I mean, that is just a reallybad thing for the economy.
And seven of ten major sectorsshow flat or negative annual pay
gains.
And all of this tells us,unfortunately, that the labor
market has just stalled, whileinflation certainly has not.

(01:50):
Now on Thursday, we're going toget the first jobs report from
the government we've seen inmore than a month since the
shutdown started.
And while I would love to seegood news, unfortunately, I'm
just expecting more of the same.
And the next headline, I'lljust keep the bad news going for
the moment.
Northeast service firms justposted their worst employment
reading in years, and they don'texpect it to get better.

(02:12):
The November New York Fedbusiness leader survey clearly
shows that labor marketconditions in the region's
service sector continue toweaken.
Employment declined for thethird straight month, wages grew
only modestly, and the firmsreported little optimism about
future hiring.
The employment index fell tonegative 8.6, which is a

(02:33):
three-point drop from Octoberand the lowest reading in
several years.
The negative index level meansmore firms reported cutting
staff and adding it.
The survey notes that this is amulti-year low, which
underscores how widespread thepullback has become across
service firms in New York,northern New Jersey, and
southwestern Connecticut.

(02:53):
While the forward employmentindex was slightly positive up
3.6, the survey commentarystates that firms expect little
employment growth in the monthsahead.
Business activity expectationsalso stayed negative, indicating
that many firms simply don'tsee the conditions necessary to
justify expanding their staff.
The survey paints a picturewe've come to expect when

(03:16):
economic momentum starts tosoften.
Employers don't stop hiringentirely, but they become much
more cautious.
And that shows up in threeplaces headcount, wages, and
expectations.
The three straight months ofemployment declines tells us
that service sector firms aretrimming rather than growing.
And when business climatereadings are this negative,

(03:37):
companies often pause hiringaltogether unless a role book is
just essential and has to bereplaced.
And unfortunately for theNortheast, it's just more of the
same that we're seeing acrossthe country right now.
In today's final headline, 16%of newly hired workers apply for
another job within their firstthree months.
That's a stat that jumped outat me from Indeed Hiring Lab's

(03:58):
new report on tenure.
Here are the other highlights.
The median job seeker on Indeedin the U.S.
has been with their currentemployer for two years and three
months.
That number varies greatly byjob.
Here are the titles with theshortest tenure.
Front of House team member infood prep, marijuana bud tender.
I did not know that was atitle.

(04:18):
And seeing it, quite frankly,I'm surprised that it is one of
the shortest tenures.
Thought that would be a happyplace to work.
Behavior technicians,restaurant hosts and hostesses,
and lube technicians.
Fair enough.
Okay, now the titles with thelongest tenure are school
principal.
I guess that makes sense,right?

(04:39):
Once you get up into that role,it's kind of a cushy gig.
I think it's probably alsoreally stressful.
I'm saying that in jest thatit's cushy, um, really a
thankless job, probably.
But once you're in, you'regonna stay because where else
are you gonna go?
That's the pinnacle of um ofthe profession.
Freelance photographer,freelance designer, owner
operator drivers, and creativedirector.

(05:00):
So interesting seeing thefreelance titles in there.
That tells me that once you'reon your own, as a photographer,
a designer, an owner-operator,driver, you're there to stay,
right?
Get that taste of freedom.
It would be really hard to goback to corporate America.
Across every major jobcategory, the longest tenured
positions typically involve moreresponsibility, greater

(05:22):
specialization, or higherbarriers to entry, from owners
and presidents in management tosolo practitioners in legal
fields, about eight and a halfyears to eight years in tenure
for those.
Frontline service roles turnover faster because the jobs are
physically demanding, the payis lower, and schedules are very
unpredictable.

(05:42):
And when the core fundamentalsof what people value in a job
aren't there, people are goingto move on.
No one should be surprised bythat.
But on the other hand, rolesthat reward experience or
require significant trainingtend to keep people longer.
If it takes years to becomeeffective, or if you're building
influence, relationships, orspecialized expertise, it makes
sense to stay put.

(06:03):
Workers value stability whenthe work feels meaningful and
the career path is clear.
How is that for a shock toabsolutely no one?
So, employers, give youremployees a reason to stay and
reward them because if employeesare rewarded and they feel
valued and they feel likethey're doing something
meaningful, they will stay.

(06:23):
That's a win-win.
So before we close today, thoseare your headlines, but I will
leave you with a fun fact.
The first modern labor union inthe United States was a group
of shoemakers founded inPhiladelphia in 1792.
1792, as a long time ago.
Shoemakers, I love it.
We don't have those anymore,not like we used to.

(06:45):
Yes, people still make shoes,but I don't see that group
unionizing anytime soon.
I think they probably couldbenefit from it with
unfortunately how many of ourshoes are made in other parts of
the world, but that is adiscussion for a different
podcast, that's for sure.
So thanks for listening today.
Please like, subscribe, sharewith anyone who you think might

(07:05):
be interested, and I welcomeyour feedback.
Talk to you soon.