Breaking Job News: Job Postings Hit a 4-Year Low as Worker Confidence Falls

Headlines suggest a cooling job market, but the story becomes more interesting once you delve into the data and consider its implications for your next move. Host Pete Newsome opens with the latest numbers on job postings sliding toward pre-pandemic levels and wage growth lagging inflation, then uses regional snapshots: California, Washington State, and DC vs. Idaho and Tennessee, to frame where the pain is sharpest and where resilience still shows up. 

Along the way, Pete tackles the debate everyone keeps having: is AI driving layoffs, or is it a convenient cover for cost-cutting? You’ll hear where he lands and why the answer probably isn’t binary.

Conflicting reports make the job market murky: Indeed points to slower wage growth, while Glassdoor shows a stronger pace and an uptick in “layoff” mentions across reviews. Pete explains how source differences influence conclusions and how declining employee confidence shifts the balance of power back in favor of employers. That shift shows up in offer acceptance behavior and negotiation dynamics, with a practical lens on what’s real versus what’s a data quirk. If you hire, you’ll get a candid take on how to reduce early turnover, be radically honest about the most complex parts of the job, and set clear expectations so new hires don’t bail at day 89.

There is momentum in flexible and independent work. Pete spotlights a surge in contract and freelance hiring, especially in customer support, e-commerce, creative, and technical roles. He also shares the top AI-linked skills employers want right now, including Python, machine learning, AI-generated video, design tools, JavaScript, and content writing, proving that human creativity, paired with innovative tools, beats automation alone. For candidates, we make the case for contract-to-hire as a strategic path to stable roles and faster impact. For leaders, he offers a playbook for hiring better in a tight, uncertain market: align pay to reality, move faster, and present the full picture of the role.

News Articles:
1. Upwork Monthly Hiring Report: https://www.upwork.com/research/monthly-hiring-report-october-2025
2. October jobs report: Glassdoor data during the shutdown: https://www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdoor-alternative-jobs-report-october-2025/
3. Job Postings Erode as Government Shutdown Continues: https://www.hiringlab.org/2025/11/06/job-postings-erode-as-government-shutdown-continues/

 💬  What do you think: Is this the start of a long-term shift toward freelance and contract work?

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Episode Transcript

Pete Newsome (00:00):
Happy Friday, everyone.
Today's job market headlinesare all about data, and unless
you just haven't been payingattention at all, you won't be
surprised to hear that the newsisn't the best, but at least
there's a bright spot out there.
First up, as the governmentshutdown drags into record
territory, the U.S.
job market continues to slowdown.
According to new data fromMendeed's hiring lab, job

(00:21):
postings in October fell to thelowest level since 2021, coming
in at just 1.7% abovepre-pandemic levels.
Nearly half of all the sectorsthey measured now sit below
where they were before COVID.
Wage growth slowed to 2.5% yearover year, and that is
especially concerning sinceinflation is clearly outpacing

(00:42):
wages, and that just cuts intoworkers' income and creates a
cycle of consumers being able tospend less, which means
companies won't need to hiremore, which means they won't pay
more, and it's just a badcycle.
Now, the regions that are hitthe hardest uh by layoffs are
also seeing the steepestdeclines in job postings, and
that's California, WashingtonState, and DC.

(01:05):
DC was down 35% below pre-COVIDlevel, so that's just a massive
decline right now.
I mean, no surprise with what'sgoing on in that area.
Um, but states like Idaho andTennessee, they're holding up
better with postings well above2020 number, so that's a good
sign.
The report also notes thatwhite-collar layoffs,
particularly in technology,media, and marketing, may be

(01:27):
linked to automation and AIadoption, but those aren't the
sole causes of the currentslowdown.
And that's a debate thatcontinues to escalate and from
one article to the next, onestudy to the next, survey to the
next, I just see it such socontradictory right now.
And I think there's two campswhere half the people believe

(01:48):
that AI is causing all the joblosses, and the other camp is
not convinced of that at all,but think that it's just a
cover-up uh as a way ofexplaining layoffs for other
reasons, just downsizing ingeneral.
I tend to sit right in themiddle.
I think it's both.
I do believe AI is taking jobsright now, but it also makes
sense to me that certaincompanies, especially some of

(02:10):
the big uh massive enterpriseorganizations, are using that as
an excuse.
That is going to play out overtime.
I see contradictions from majoreconomists too.
I mean, just at a conferenceearlier this week, one of the uh
economists who spoke said thathe doesn't think AI is really
going to displace jobs at all.

(02:30):
I was a little surprised tohear that.
Uh, his conviction about thatwas very strong.
And the next keynote speakerpretty much said the opposite.
So, look, this is very much awork in progress.
We are living this experimentin real time.
I say that often, and we'regoing to have to see how it
plays out.
But what I care about right nowis the job uh market is not in

(02:53):
great shape.
Um, and as long as thisshutdown lingers, it is only
going to get worse for everyone.
And not to pile on, but ifyou're feeling less confident
about your job right now,unfortunately, you're not alone.
Glassdoor's October Jobs reportcame out and it shows that
employee confidence fellsharply, down from 47.8% to only

(03:13):
45.7%, which is the lowestlevel since June.
Travel, transportation, andpublic sector employees, they
all saw the biggest drops.
And of course, they've beenheavily affected by the
government shutdown.
Now, salaries were only downslightly month over month, but
still showed a year-over-yeargrowth of 5.2%.
Now that is much different thanIndeed's report in the same

(03:37):
timeframe showing 2.5% wagegrowth.
That's a massive discrepancy.
And that's common to see indata, and I always try to step
back and figure out why.
Why would those numbers be sodifferent?
And Indeed is showing their databased on job postings.
Glassdoor is, of course, anemployee review site.
And when I see employee reviewsites, there's always a lot of

(03:59):
fives if it's a one out of fiverating, a lot of ones, and
really nothing in between.
So you really only see theextremes.
And I always kind of laugh atthat and think, was no company
ever just okay or good enough?
You know, it's always awful orterrible.
And so that's always a caveatto me when I see Glassdoor data,

(04:20):
because it is only coming fromthose who choose to go on and do
a review, right?
Of their interview of thecompany they work for.
And so keep that in mind withthe rest of these numbers.
Glassdoor also measures afrequency of the word layoff
being mentioned in reviews, andthat came in 22% higher than a
year ago.
So that is a very strongsignal.

(04:40):
No matter how subjective thisdata is, it tells us really what
is happening in the job market.
So that one jumped off the pageat me.
Um it's it just indicative ofthe trend that we see reported
on a weekly basis, almost adaily basis, it seems lately.
So that wasn't good to see.
Also, from the report, joboffer rejection rates fell in

(05:02):
October.
They came in at 18%.
So 18% of candidates whoreceived job offers declined
them.
And that was down 23% from 23%a year earlier.
And I really struggle withthese numbers.
And I'll tell you why in asecond, but the Glassdoor
analysts they say it's a sign ofreduced worker leverage where
employees are more willing toaccept offers that they

(05:23):
otherwise wouldn't because ofeconomic uncertainty and slower
wage growth.
And I believe that is happening,that makes sense.
But what doesn't make sense tome as a staffing company owner
who's been doing this a longtime is that one out of five
candidates currently aredeclining job offers, or one out
of four candidates weredeclining job offers a year ago.
It just doesn't work that way.

(05:45):
The hiring process is flawed tosay the least, but that would
just be indicative of acompletely dysfunctional
interview process that a massivenumber of candidates would, or
employers rather, would have tobe facilitating.
And I just know that's not thecase.
And no staffing company couldbe in business with those kind

(06:06):
of numbers.
I wouldn't work with anycompany where for whatever
reason candidates were turningdown their job offers at such a
significant rate.
I mean, it's rare when acandidate turns down a job
offer.
So that's what they'rereporting.
I scratch my head over that alittle bit.
I mean, the only conclusion Ican draw is that a lot of
companies are lowballingcandidates when they make the

(06:27):
offer, and the candidates feelcompelled to go on Glassdoor and
make a make a point of sharingthat.
So I think that is probablyhappening.
Again, the data here is alwaysa little biased to me on
Glassdoor or any review site,but it still gives us a trend,
and that's why I'm willing totalk about it.
So, look, regardless of its ofits flaws, it's indicative of

(06:48):
where the pendulum is right now.
And the pendulum is in favor ofemployers when it comes to
leverage in the job market.
And I do believe it's not amatter of if, it's just a matter
of when it will swing back.
But with the tariffs being anever-moving target, the
government shutdown, when isjust anybody's guess right now.
So I'll continue to monitor andtalk about it.
For some slightly better news,full-time hiring has slowed

(07:11):
down, but flexible work isstarting to take off, at least
according to Upwork's Octoberhiring report.
They found that 78% ofbusinesses plan to hire flexible
or independent workers in thenext three months.
That's great to see.
It's the highest number of theyear.
And it's primarily due toseasonal hiring.
We know that, but a win is awin.
We will take it, it's a step inthe right direction.

(07:31):
Customer facing roles are up30%, especially in e-commerce
and tech support.
So love seeing it.
And also creative and technicalroles are starting to surge.
Game design is up 38%,branding's up 19%, and marketing
and PR overall, they're up 14%.
So my take on that is we'reseeing that companies really
just can't rely fully on AI,ChatGPT, LLMs.

(07:55):
We need humans to collaborateand work aside the AI tools.
But AI hiring, that's not goingaway.
That's up to here are the top10 roles that are in demand with
AI skills.
So pay attention to these ifyou want to work in that space.
Graphic design, Python, videoediting, machine learning,
AI-generated video, chat GPT, ofcourse, that's in there.

(08:17):
Uh Adobe Photoshop, JavaScript,Adobe Illustrator, and content
writing.
I really like seeing contentwriting in there.
There was such a trend to getaway from copywriters when
ChatGPT came out.
And seeing that go back theother way, I love it.
A win for humanity.
Robots, you don't have a speatyet.
And so the message I want topass along to job seekers also

(08:40):
with this, uh, this is comingfrom Upwork, right?
They're a freelance site.
And I know many people who havefound themselves unemployed
through no fault of their own.
They didn't intend it for thatto happen.
You are looking for a permanentjob.
You want the security of that.
But keep in mind there's nosecurity in that really.
If you found yourself laid off,that should be enough to prove

(09:01):
the point.
And so don't look past theseshort-term opportunities,
seasonal, contract work.
I'm slightly biased, of course,because I own a contract
staffing company.
We place people in direct rolesright from the start, but the
majority of what we do startsoff as contract positions.
And historically, in our 20years in business, about half of

(09:22):
those positions convert to adirect employee of our client.
So you start as a contractor,you do a great job, and they
will find a way to keep you.
It happens over and over.
And when I say I have hundredsand hundreds of stories to back
that up, I'm not exaggerating.
It's maybe in the thousands atthis point.
So don't turn those down.

(09:43):
Don't consider them or refuseto consider them just because
they're not ultimately what youwant.
If you get in and prove thatyou're you're worthy of being
there, they will find a way tokeep you.
At least most of the time.
So those are our headlines forthe day.
And I'll close with your funfact, maybe not so fun fact in
this one, but it was somethingthat I heard at a conference

(10:05):
earlier this week, and that isthat one-third of all new hires
will quit within the first 90days of starting a new job.
I think it's high.
But I think any of thesenumbers, while not perfect,
they're still indicative of theoverall state of things.
And so that is a lot.
Companies, interview as bestyou can, screen.

(10:25):
But here's my advice in doingso.
Tell your candidates the worstparts of the job.
Don't try to convince anyone tocome work for you.
If anything, talk them out ofit before you get to that point,
right?
Tell them what the worst thingsare that they can expect.
And then you won't have so manypeople quitting your job when
they start.
You can fix that stat if youwant to, if you're an employer.

(10:47):
So thanks for listening today.
Please like and subscribe,share with anyone who might be
interested.
And um, thanks for listening.
I'll talk to you next week.