Episode Transcript
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Pete Newsome (00:00):
Today's job market
headlines include Glassdoor's
work-life trends for 2026, agloomy take on holiday hiring,
and President Trump'sinteresting comments on American
talent.
But leading off, small businessowners are staying cautious as
profits shrink and hiring planscool.
The optimism that fueled lastyear's growth has started to
fade.
Here's what the NFIB SmallBusiness Optimism Index tells
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us.
Optimism came in at 98.2 inOctober, which is a 0.6 drop
from September.
We're heading in the wrongdirection.
32% of the owners surveyedreported job openings they
couldn't fill, which isunchanged from last month.
15% plan to create jobs overthe next three months, which is
down a point, and 49% reportedfew or no qualified applicants
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for their openings.
Labor quality rose to the topbusiness problem at 27%.
I see this survey every monthand I just don't get it.
The entire time I've beenmonitoring this data, it
consistently shows that businessowners, specifically small
business owners, are claiming tohave jobs they can't fill to a
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significant degree.
49% reported that they're notreceiving qualified applicants.
It just doesn't align with whatI know is happening in the job
market, with what I know at avery intimate level of who is
looking for jobs right now andtheir inability to find them.
So there's a huge disconnect.
And the only thing I canconclude is that if you're one
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of those NFIB members takingthis survey and claiming you
can't find talent or strugglingwith the quality of what you uh
the people you are finding onthe job market, you're doing
something very wrong.
So call me.
I'll refer you to the rightstaffing company if it's not
going to be mine, and thatproblem can be solved very
quickly, I assure you.
Next up, the trust gap betweenemployees and leadership is
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widening, and the data showsit's not just a vibe, it's
measurable.
Glassdoor just released theirwork-life trends for 2026.
Let's go through them one at atime.
Trend one, the employee leaderdisconnect.
Glassdoor found ratings ofsenior leadership remain well
below pandemic highs.
Mentions of disconnect inreviews are up 24%,
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miscommunication is up 25%,distrust up 26%, and
misalignment skyrocketed 149%year over year.
The steepest declines appear inconsulting, media, technology,
and other industries that arehistorically seen as innovation
leaders.
So not good right now at allwith what's happening there.
And I think it's justindicative of a stale labor
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market.
Things aren't moving.
And with that, a lot ofemployees are staying at their
jobs.
We know that.
That's also been a trend.
And as such, I think there'sjust a lot of dissatisfaction
because if employees can't move,a lot of them are feeling stuck
where they are, and that's notgood for anyone.
Trend two, the forever layoffsets in.
Small layoffs under 50 now makeup more than half of all
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warrings, and that is a federalrequirement that employers
announce layoffs in advance.
And that's up 38% from a decadeago.
And these rolling cuts, theydon't grab headlines, they don't
get a lot of attention, butwhat they do is create lasting
anxiety and severe damage toemployee morale.
Mentions of layoffs and jobinsecurity and reviews are
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higher than they were at theheight of 2020's cuts.
So again, just bad sentimentright now among a lot of
workers.
Trend three is the slow-mo RTOwill continue.
Career opportunity ratings forremote and hybrid workers fell
from 4.1% in 2020 to 3.5 in2025.
And so while work-from-homerates have stayed about the
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same, the workers who are remotefeel left behind in recognition
and advancement.
That makes sense, out of sight,out of mind.
So if you're an employee, maybetake some of that ownership on
yourself and make sure thatyou're present, make sure that
you're saying you have to tootyour own horn.
I would recommend doing thatanyway if you're in corporate
America.
But for employers, it'sincumbent upon you.
If you're going to have aremote workforce, if you've made
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that decision, you can't leavethose employees lagging.
You have to make sure thatyou're recognizing them for the
work they do and seeking it out.
It is not as easy, but that'sjust the deal.
Remote work has changed a lotof how we need to operate, and
you have to keep up with that.
Trend four, AI isn't bringingemployees down yet.
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So jobs like translators,software engineers, and
copywriters have showed bigdrops, although I did see some
data last week indicating thatcopywriting hiring, I think this
was an upwork report, is backon the rise.
So as companies realize AI'slimitations, they're going to
make adjustments.
I think that pendulum isswinging back in the employees'
favor, at least for now.
Um, but at the same time, AI isbecoming more prevalent.
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Companies are increasing theirinvestments.
They are looking to do more withless as a result of AI and
create efficiencies and yes,potentially replace jobs.
So it hasn't really kicked inyet.
I'm not so confident that thatwill last.
I think as 2026 unfolds, we'regoing to see a lot more jobs
lost to AI.
I just do.
I might be wrong.
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I hope I'm wrong, but that'sthe trend that I'm personally
seeing from what I touch andhave exposure to every day.
Trend five, job seekers willtake what they can get.
Candidates are accepting jobsthat they once uh would have
passed on due to marketconditions.
That's happening.
We know that pendulum swingsbeing what they are, they're in
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favor of the employer right now.
I think once we see somestability in the market, that
will swing back the other way.
I believe that, but it hasn'thappened yet.
Let's hope that the um thefederal government stops moving
the goal line on us constantly.
But again, acceptance rates umare roughly through for roughly
three out of four offers werereported on Glassdoor.
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So I still find that datasurprising every time I see
Glassdoor report it.
It tells me that there's biasin their reporting because if
only three out of four joboffers are being accepted, if if
that's just way too low, Idon't see that ever happening in
the job market normally.
So my working theory is thatwhat happens is employees will
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go uh on the site uh and talkabout why they didn't accept the
job offer, but the ones who do,they just go to work, right?
They just start working.
They're not thinking of goingon Glassdoor and giving a
positive review.
So I think that's why thenumbers are a lot skewed always
from a review site, generalstatement.
Um, but then the final trend isbetter pay for the new grads
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who can land a job.
Real wages for early careerworkers are projected to surpass
2020 purchasing power in 2026after years of lagging behind
inflation.
Jobs for new grads are few andfar between.
That's the problem.
But the ones that are gettingoffers seem to be getting uh
paid at the right rate now.
And I have seen dataindependent of Glassdoor
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indicating the same.
So some good news, generallybad for um for recent grads.
We know that the market's justsuper tight.
And um that I don't seechanging anytime soon,
unfortunately.
But it's good to see that theones who are getting offers are
getting paid at the right rate.
So there we have it.
Glassdoors 2026 work lifetrends report, and some good,
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mostly not great, as we headinto the new year.
Next, this year's holidayhiring season is shaping up to
be the leanest in more than adecade.
The Wall Street Journal reportsthat retailers and logistics
firms are pulling back sharplyon seasonal hiring.
Large employers announced justunder 373,000 seasonal job
openings through October, whichis down from 660,000 last year.
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So that is a giant drop.
And it's the fewest since uh2012 that have been announced.
On indeed, job searches forholiday work are 27% higher than
they were a year ago, butpostings are 15% lower.
So not a good sign there.
More people looking forseasonal work, fewer companies
hiring.
Major companies like UPS,Target, and Macy's haven't
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released their usual hiringtargets after cutting full-time
staff earlier this year.
Also, not good to see.
This year's results showemployers holding the line as
they wait for signals ofstronger demand.
So that is such a recurringtheme, the hurry up and wait
that companies are going throughright now.
And I believe that everyone justwants stability.
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We need that stability from thetop, from the federal
government.
Stop moving the goal line onus, stop doing crazy things with
all the infighting, and Iexpect what we that we will see
hiring start to pick up again.
Now, before we close, PresidentTrump made some really
interesting comments in aninterview with Laura Ingram.
(08:47):
She was asking about hisintentions with the H1B visa
program.
And she started off by saying,if you want to raise wages for
American workers, you can'tflood the country with hundreds
of thousands of workers from theoutside.
And he said, I agree, but youhave to bring in talent.
And her response to that was,we have plenty of talented
people here.
And his immediate responsewithout hesitation was, no, you
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don't.
You don't have certain talents,and people have to learn.
You can't take people off anunemployment line and say, I'm
going to put you into a factorywhere we're going to make
missiles.
You have to teach them.
Okay, there's so much in this.
I understand what Trump's pointwas, and I agree that we do
need to bring in the best talentfrom around the world where it
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is lacking in the US.
But we also know that the H1Vvisa program has been abused to
a significant degree.
There are many H1 uh visaholders over here who aren't
supplying talent that we don'talready have or providing talent
we don't already have.
Far from it.
And so that needs to stopfirst.
And I believe that Laura'spoint is that we should be
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teaching our young people tofill the jobs that are needed,
right?
Not just young people, butdisplaced workers as well.
We should be aligning that withthe needs that actually
actually exist in our in ourmarket.
And we're not doing that.
Our current education systemdoesn't allow for that at all.
We are encouraging everyone togo to college, having them earn
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degrees that there's just nodemand for in the market.
Most of the jobs that are openright now don't require college
degrees.
That's a fact.
Most college degrees right nowdon't qualify the uh person who
earned it to do anything in theprofessional world, right?
So, look, my my last commentthere is President Trump's gonna
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have to be accountable to whathe said.
He upset a lot of people withit, rightfully so.
Um, but I also think we shouldhold colleges more accountable
to their graduate success.
If you're gonna take someone'smoney and give them a degree,
have them earn a degree underthe expectation there will be a
job on the other side of it, andthere's no job because there's
no demand for the the what thatperson holds as a degree, well
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it seems like we should holdthose organizations accountable.
And we just don't today.
We just continue to promotethis cycle of going to college
with no real plan, no idea ofwhat's really going to be on the
other side of it.
It's broken, it needs to befixed.
But I'll get off that soapboxfor now and wrap up with today's
fun fact.
The Fair Labor Standards Act of1938 established the 40-hour
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work week and the first nationalminimum wage.
It's not really that fun.
It is interesting.
So uh it was Wild West beforethat.
You could argue that it's stillin many cases wild west today,
but that 40-hour week standardwas established.
I know a lot of people arguethat's too many hours.
I see a lot of tech companiesright now saying it's not nearly
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enough.
So federal government weighingin, established a baseline, and
there we have it.
And obviously, we've seen a lotof changes to minimum wage
since then, and now at the statelevel, that continues to um
vary greatly depending on whereyou live.
So there we are.
A lot of rambling from metoday, but thank you for
listening.
If you've stuck this far,please like, subscribe, share
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with anyone you think might beinterested, and I'll talk to you
tomorrow.