Episode Transcript
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Pete Newsome (00:00):
Today's job market
headlines provide insight into
where work is heading over thenext year.
JP Morgan Chase reveals incomegrowth is stalled.
YouTube's voluntary buyoutsshow how AI is quietly rewriting
job descriptions in tech, andGartner tells us what they say
are the four biggest trends HRleaders must prepare for.
But first, what if your nextcoworker isn't a person, but an
(00:22):
AI agent with its own HR record?
If that sounds like sciencefiction, it's not.
It's in Corn Ferry's forecastfor 2026.
Their annual talent acquisitiontrends report showed 84% of
hiring leaders plan to use AInext year, while also warning
that the rush to automate couldcreate a future leadership
pipeline crisis.
(00:42):
The report found that 52% ofleaders intend to add AI agents
to their teams.
So roughly half.
And that's not a surprise.
But what is a surprise to me, ashock, is that some intend to
create HR records for the AIagents.
That's just bizarre.
I don't get it at all.
But at the same time, they'resaying that there aren't enough
(01:06):
leaders who possess the skillsneeded to manage human AI
collaboration effectively.
Only 11% of the surveyrespondents said their
executives are prepared to leadthrough the AI transition.
Now that is to be expected,isn't it?
We're all living through thisexperiment in real time.
So who is qualified to manageAI human collaboration?
(01:27):
I mean, we are making it up aswe go.
And if anyone says otherwise, Iwould question their sanity.
So we'll have to see how thatplays out.
But what's I found probablymost interesting in the survey
is that it showed 43% ofcompanies plan to replace roles
with AI.
Let me say that again.
43% of companies are going toreplace positions with AI.
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So for anyone who still thinksthat's not happening, it is
happening, it has happened, andit's only going to happen on an
increasing basis.
Now, the roles primarily areback office and operations and
entry-level jobs.
And Cornferry's take on that isthat there's temporary cost
savings that you're going toachieve, but by not hiring young
(02:12):
workers, there's going to be along-term cost of losing
tomorrow's managers anddirectors before they even
start.
Now, I understand that logic,but my belief is that AI will
reduce all levels of positionsequally, or at least relatively.
So since there will be fewerentry-level positions, and we
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know that's happening, well,we're going to need fewer people
to manage them and lead them.
So that is a trend that hasleft the station.
I don't see that uh turningaround at this point.
But despite AI's prominence,the survey indicated that human
skills remain critical.
Nearly 73% of talent leadersrank critical thinking as their
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top hiring priority.
Nearly every survey stressesthat these days.
So it's almost a contradiction,and like whether it's a company
announcing changes and re-orgsor surveys where AI is super
important, AI is happening, AI'staking jobs, but human skills
are more important now thanever.
I I don't know.
(03:14):
I mean, I think that'sinteresting to say the least,
and yes, somewhat of acontradiction.
So, but that's what the surveyis telling us.
In the next story, here's astat that should catch the
attention of everyone who wasearly in their career.
According to new data from theJP Morgan Chase Institute, real
income growth in 2025 is at itslowest level in a decade, and
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young workers are feeling it themost.
Here's what they found afteranalyzing millions of anonymized
pay deposits.
First, real income growthweakened through 2025, reaching
its lowest sustained pace sincethe early 2010s.
For prime age workers, which iseveryone who's 25 to 54, real
income growth sits around 2%.
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There was a big post-COVIDincrease, but then an even
bigger dip, and now it'strending down again as the year
goes on.
Also, the decline in incomegrowth is most pronounced among
young workers in the 25 to 29age group.
The report attributes this to asofter labor market, slow
hiring, and low quit rates,which makes job switching
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difficult.
And job switching is typicallywhat young professionals rely on
to advance their careers andincrease their earnings.
What this data really tells usis there's a less dynamic job
market right now, and thatdoesn't just slow down pay, it
slows down potential,compounding other financial
pressures like housing andslower wealth accumulation.
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And unfortunately, young peoplemissed the bull market that
we've been in for the pastdecade.
So it's really a compoundingeffect that's that's hurting
young professionals right now.
And the institute warns thatreduced mobility and weaker
early career wage growth couldhave lasting implications.
And I think that's true.
I mean, if you can't have thatsuccess early, you're just gonna
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be behind what has been thetraditional curve.
And it just seems to me thatyoung people have had had it
really rough.
And as a father of four, I'mseeing this play out firsthand.
And I think we can all agreethey're due for a change in
luck.
But my advice is for anyoneyoung, don't just wait for the
market to improve.
We don't know when that's gonnahappen.
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Build your skills, expand yournetwork, and as important as
anything, right now, perhapsmost important, stay ahead of
the curve with AI.
Next up, YouTube's latestreorganization might sound
routine until you realize it'sfueled by AI and could quietly
reshape thousands of jobs.
In an internal memo linked tothe HR Digest, CEO Neil Mohan
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told employees that the nextfrontier for YouTube is AI.
The company is launchingvoluntary buyouts for U.S.
staff as part of a broaderrestructure that creates three
new product divisions (05:54):
viewer,
creator, and community, and
subscription.
Mohan insists there are no roleeliminations.
They always say that, don'tthey?
But the buyout suggests YouTubewants to reduce headcount as it
reallocates resources towardsAI-driven products.
Now this move comes as Google,who is of course YouTube's
parent company, doubles down onAI through Gemini and other
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tools.
And my take is that this isjust the new blueprint for big
tech.
Lead with innovation, do lotsof great things, and then follow
up with a reorganization,always claiming that you're not
really getting rid of people,you're just shuffling them
around.
Now, the voluntary buyouts arealso a bit of a prelude to
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automation, in some ways similarto return to office.
So if I'm an employee of one ofthese massive companies, really
any massive company right now,I'd have two predominant
thoughts.
First, I'm just a number, andI'll always just be a number.
There's just no way aroundthat.
But if I'm going to be anumber, I better be one who's
knee-deep in implementing andleveraging AI for the company,
(07:00):
not in a role that is likely tobe replaced by it.
So very different depending onwhich side of that equation
you're on.
And in today's final headline,there are four trends talent
leaders must prepare for in2026.
This is according to Gartner.
Now, I question these, so let'sgo through them one at a time.
First, entry-level roles aredisappearing, putting more
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pressure on HR to rebuild theearly career pipeline.
Well, I don't know why we needmore pressure on HR to build a
pipeline that's disappearing.
Now you can change that if youwant to, and in many cases, I
think companies should, butisn't that old news at this
point?
I mean, we know that earlycareer opportunities have
diminished over the past year,maybe two years.
(07:45):
So that is not a trend for 2026or me.
Um, we don't have to wait tosee if that's going to happen.
Number two, HR will turnone-third of its recruiting
inward, focusing on internalmobility and redeployment.
Now, I fully agree thatemployees will need to be moved
around and redeployed ifpossible, but that's to
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accommodate AI displacement.
So let's keep in mind this isthe same organization that just
recently, maybe even last week,said that AI will only replace
1% of jobs over the next fewyears.
So, why do you need internalmobility and moving employees
around if AI is not replacingthe jobs?
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Wouldn't that be the catalystfor it?
They didn't seem to say whythat's going to be necessary,
just that it is.
So a bit of a contradictionthere.
I would expect they would willwalk back at some point or at
least revise their statementthat AI is only expected to
replace 1% of jobs.
I think it was over the nextfive years.
But number three, regrettableretention.
(08:49):
I like that phrase.
Keeping low-performingemployees will become the top
productivity barrier.
But again, hasn't that alwaysbeen a top productivity barrier?
I mean, that's not new.
Keeping employees that aredragging the organization down
is not a good thing.
That's news to no one.
Number four, performancemanagement.
Performance management willbecome both less and more human
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as AI automates reviews, butmanagers must still bring
empathy and judgment.
That sounds like more of thesame to me.
Yes, we're going to use moreAI, but people are so much more
important as a result.
I question that.
I do think it's contradictory.
Um, but yes, I do agree thatthere are certain things that AI
(09:33):
just can't replicate that onlya human can bring.
And so let's hope that we canhold on to that as long as
possible.
So there you go.
Gartner's new or maybe not sonew, things that AHR leaders
need to prepare for in 2026.
Sometimes when I read thesethings, I just think
organizations are making thingsup to say because they want the
(09:56):
content, but that's where weare.
And before we close, here'syour fun fact today: adding
plants to a workplace, sorry,adding plants to a workspace can
increase productivity by asmuch as 15%.
I don't have any plants.
I have dogs, they're not hereright now, they're usually in
the picture behind me.
Um I think I don't know ifthose increased my productivity,
(10:18):
they certainly increase myhappiness, but plants can
increase productivity by as muchas 15%.
I don't see how.