Cornering The Job Market: Bad News in the BLS 10 Year Employment Projection Released Today

In today's episode, Pete shares the latest U.S. employment projections from the BLS, which reveal a significant slowdown in job growth over the next decade.

Also, discover why some say the monthly BLS job revisions aren't a bad thing, hear the results from Express Employment's job seeker report on job security, and find out the average number of job changes in a worker's career. 

News Articles: 
BLS Employment Projections: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm
Weekly unemployment data: www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20251334.pdf
The case for job revisions: https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/the-hidden-story-behind-bls-jobs-revisions
Job Seeker Report: https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/survey-finds-workers-fear-any-job-could-vanish-in-a-downturn

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
This is Cornering the Job Market.
For August 28th, I'm Pete withFour Corner Resources and here
are all the work-relatedheadlines you need to know today
, beginning with the employmentprojections that came out this
morning from the BLS.
This is their assessment of howwell they think the job market
will do over the next 10 years.
The good news America's jobmarket is still growing, but

(00:24):
over the next decade it's onlyexpected to grow by 5.2 million
jobs, which is far, far slowerthan the last 10 years.
The BLS projections show thatUS total employment will hit
175.2 million jobs by 2034,which is a 3.1% increase, but
that's compared to a 13%increase from 2014 to 2024.

(00:47):
So it is way down from there.
I mean, this is a bad sign forhow things are slowing and we
have to assume or at least I dothat they're giving us their
optimistic view right.
And if that's what they'rereporting and we all know, and
I'll talk more about this in aminute, bls reporting is not
always the most trustworthy thenI think we have cause to feel

(01:10):
nervous about this.
Specifically, office and adminsupport, sales production jobs.
Those are what they're expectedto be hit the hardest and will
actually decline due toautomation and AI cutting demand
for routine tasks.
So that's already happening.
Just project forward 10 yearsand think how's it going to look
then.
I think these estimates are very, very conservative.

(01:32):
But it's not all bad news.
There is growth, healthcare inparticular.
The baby boomers are notgetting younger, far from it.
So that is going to see a lotof growth.
Overall, healthcare is expectedto grow by 8.4%.
If you want to know the fastestgrowing industry, that is
services for elderly anddisabled.

(01:53):
They project that will grow by21%, adding over half a million
jobs, and these are nursepractitioners, pt assistants,
physician's assistants.
Those are some of the fastestgrowing roles that they're
projecting.
I'll link the full release inthe notes so you can see it
there.
Just some more quick BLS news.
The initial unemployment claimsfor the week came out this

(02:15):
morning as well, and they'redown by 5,000.
So that's always a good sign.
It means employers aren'thaving layoffs with any
significance.
Right now Everything's kind ofstill stable.
I'm seeing that in my ownbusiness, in staffing, as well
as what the data is showingright now, and even talking to
my peers around the country.
So we're still kind of in thathurry up and wait mode.

(02:35):
Moving on to our next story, atthis point.
Almost everyone is aware of therecent BLS job revisions, where
they revised down the numbersoriginally reported for May and
June by 258,000.
That is a massive number.
Now, this isn't new, though.
It's been happening for as longas I've been reading the
reports.
It just happened to get a lotof press this time Trump fired

(02:56):
the BLS director.
It's still in the news almostevery day, but the way it works
or it's worked this way for along time at least they'll put
out great numbers.
They'll get lots of press.
Everyone pats himself on theback, but quietly at the bottom
of the report they revise thenumbers from previous months.
So I'm glad that this isgetting exposed, but not

(03:17):
everyone thinks these revisionsare bad and that they happen for
really good reason.
Staffing industry analysts putout an article saying that it's
all because the initial reportsrely on partial data.
Now, that's great, but you needto say it up front.
Don't portray it as beingsomething that it's not.
You know it makes sense, though, right?
These data relies on privatecompanies who have to report

(03:40):
they don't always do it on timeand that these initial results
are always just intended to bepreliminary.
Again, fine, but why not justwait.
I don't know who's benefitingby putting out bad numbers only
to revise them later on.
And again, do it quietly whenthey can get away with it.
Surprisingly, a former BLScommissioner even says that it's

(04:02):
a feature, not a bug, becauseit allows the agency to deliver
timely data.
Well, who cares if it's timely,if it's inaccurate?
So do better government, dobetter BLS.
No one trusts you at this point.
Maybe we never will, but that'swhere we are right now.
And finally, for today, thelatest job seeker report from
Express Employment just came out.
In it, 73% of respondents agreethat no job is secure, no

(04:26):
matter how well they'reperforming.
It's 73%.
I mean, that's a lot.
I think that should be 100%.
No job is fully secure.
Yes, that is absolutely true.
Employees need to be vigilantabout their situation and don't
assume that just because thingsare good today, they're going to
be good tomorrow.
Things change too rapidly forthat.

(04:46):
Also, in this survey, 71% sayjob security is becoming a thing
of the past.
Well, I'd argue that jobsecurity has never really been a
thing.
Perceived, sure, but actual no.
And listen, I don't mean to befully pessimistic about this,
it's just reality.
Be open and honest where youcan, as an employer to your

(05:08):
employees.
I believe very strongly in that.
It's one of the reasons Istarted my own business, so my
employees never had to wonderwhere they stand.
But that is not always apossibility at large companies.
In fact, it's what I hatedabout working for large
companies Someone many levelsabove me, who didn't even know
who I am, was going to be makingdecisions that could affect my

(05:29):
life at any given second, andit's just not something that I
was ever really comfortable with.
So it's good that most of thepeople in this survey aren't
really comfortable, but I wouldtell you no one should fully be
unless you have that kind ofintimate relationship with your
employer so you always knowwhere you stand.
And before I sign off for today,how many times do you think the

(05:50):
average American worker willchange jobs in their career?
Five times, seven times, eighttimes, twelve times is the
number according to a recentsurvey, the most common reason
for switching jobs no surprise,to seek a higher salary.
That number sounds high to meand since I read it I've been
trying to think of all thepeople I know in my personal and

(06:11):
professional life, of how oftenthey've changed jobs.
But when I stop and reallyconsider the individuals and the
number of jobs I know they'vehad.
Yeah, 12 sounds about right.
So where are you on that line?
Are you above, are you below it?
Either way, I hope you're in ajob you like right now.
Just don't get too comfortablewith it.
That's it for today.
Thanks for listening.

(06:31):
I appreciate it.
Like, subscribe, share with afriend and give me any feedback
you have.
I'd love to hear that too.
Thanks.