Most budgets don’t survive past Q1. They collapse because they aren’t built on cash flow, they don’t roll into the balance sheet, and they aren’t tied to owner goals. In other words, they’re not budgets — they’re wish lists.
Watch on YouTube
That’s why Part 2 of our Budget Season 2026 Series is all about the model itself. I sat down with Pat Hobby, who’s spent decades building financial models, to break down how owners can create a budget file that actually runs the business.
We dig into how to structure assumptions, link them to drivers, and roll everything into financials you can trust. We talk about Base, Upside, and Downside scenarios, how to keep the model simple but powerful, and how to set a monthly cadence so the budget stays alive all year.
This isn’t about Excel tricks. It’s about having one system that tells you when to hire, when to invest, when to pull back — and the confidence to make those calls from the boardroom.
In this episode, Pat and I screen-share and walk through an actual model. If you want to see the file in action, check out the video version on YouTube or Spotify.
What We Covered:
- Why most budgets fail (and how to avoid building a wish list)
- The structure of a usable model: assumptions → drivers → financials → outputs
- How to build Base / Upside / Downside scenarios without breaking the file
- The importance of linking P&L, cash flow, and balance sheet together
- How to set a monthly cadence so budget vs. actuals drives real decisions
- How to keep the model “living” without turning it into a science project
Pat Hobby is a seasoned CFO, CPA, and the founder of The CFO Advantage, a fractional CFO firm that helps business owners gain true financial clarity and use their numbers to drive long-term value. He was also the cofounder of Ryan Tansom’s former business, where they built a fractional CFO model serving dozens of clients across multiple industries. Pat has guided companies through ESOPs, private equity transactions, and complex financial transitions, always bringing an investor mindset and operational discipline to the finance function. He’s known for making complex financials simple, actionable, and aligned with ownership strategy.
Chapters:
- (0:00) Introduction to budgeting fundamentals and three statement modeling approach
- (4:59) Why budgeting starts with sales and revenue forecasting methodology
- (21:04) Building the complete three statement model and end result overview
- (26:32) Creating detailed monthly payroll budgets with full burden calculations
- (38:55) Understanding cash flow statements and the owner operator bridge
- (53:16) Forecasting balance sheet and working capital management levers
- (1:09:35) Managing distributions, debt, and capital allocation decisions
- (1:31:34) Implementing monthly budget reviews and ongoing financial management
- Rate, comment, and share with the owner/operators you know!
Chapters
- (00:00:00) - What Good Budgeting Looks Like
- (00:02:56) - Budgeting With a Three-Step Model
- (00:06:47) - Budgeting for the Owner
- (00:13:31) - The Owner-Operator Process
- (00:17:46) - CFO Talk: The Cash Flow Statement
- (00:25:16) - The Income Statement and Balance Sheet
- (00:26:39) - Projecting Cash Flow From Operations
- (00:30:55) - Cash Flow from Operations and Capital Expenditure
- (00:38:24) - The Business of Budgeting
- (00:44:55) - Trump on the GOP
- (00:45:08) - Accelerating Budget Calculations
- (00:50:20) - Operations
- (00:52:14) - Income Statement, Fully burdened Tax Form 4
- (00:56:40) - Compensation and the Budget
- (01:03:28) - Cash is the Plug
- (01:10:22) - Cash Flow Forecasting, Lever Analysis
- (01:17:11) - normalized EBITDA and cash flow statement
- (01:22:18) - Return on Rev
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