October 24, 2025 • 18 mins
Mike unpacks why the market has felt stuck, then lays out what could spark a real estate upswing: falling mortgage rates, stock market resilience, wage growth outpacing inflation, and a historic wealth transfer. Be sure to find out what his practical savings strategy for renters is!
If you have any ideas for guests, ideas for podcast episodes, definitely send them in as we’re jumping back into this Kestrel Country podcast.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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SPEAKER_00 (00:12):
This is the Testal Country Podcast where we discuss
the people, the places, andevents all around Tesco Country.
So given that it's been a whilesince we've recorded a podcast,
I want to talk a little bitabout what's been happening in
(00:34):
real estate and a little bit ofsome predictions for the future
for coming into next year.
As it is as of today, we'regetting to be late October.
So beautiful fall here on thePalouse, and it really has been
a beautiful fall.
We've had amazing weather andit's been great.
(00:54):
But let's talk a little bitabout what's been going on in
the real estate market.
So last two years, I would saythe uh way to classify it here,
and I'm talking about locally,but it's really been true
nationally too, is a bit ofstagnation.
It's been slow and weird.
(01:15):
Um what do I mean by weird?
Well, it's been uh the market'snot been totally dead, but
there's just been a low numberof transactions overall and a
little bit of a stalemate withboth buyers and sellers being a
little bit more on the fence.
With sellers, a lot of that iscoming from the super low, kind
(01:37):
of artificially low interestrates that we saw post-COVID.
So there are a lot of people whoeither bought or refinanced at
in that time where interestrates got super, super really
artificially low in the twos andthrees, and then obviously shot
back up, got almost to 8%, andhave been kind of hovering
(01:58):
relatively high in the sixes andsevens the last year or two.
What that's done is had thislock-in effect where basically
it's it's hard for people towant to trade up or trade out of
that really low mortgage ratethat they've got fixed for 30
years and buy at this higherrate, especially when prices
(02:19):
haven't come down.
And part of why prices haven'tcome down is because of that low
inventory.
So it's a little bit of a trapcycle there.
And then that's on the sellerside why inventory is low, which
then again keeps pricesrelatively high.
Then we've also seen on thebuyer side, obviously, that
difficulty of high interestrates and stubborn prices
(02:43):
creating a little bit of again,this stalemate.
So you know, homes that arepriced right are still selling
quickly.
We've even seen some recentlywith multiple offers when
they're priced right.
But anything overpriced at allis just sitting on the market.
So that's generally what we'vebeen seeing.
Um, but some promising signsgoing into this later fall as
(03:05):
interest rates have started todrop.
Although what often happens thistime of year is that when people
see those interest rates startto tick down, they think, all
right, they're dropping.
Let's not jump in too soon,let's wait till they drop
further, uh, wait till spring,and maybe there's more inventory
and lower rates, right?
So um that's kind of what we'vebeen seeing in the market.
(03:26):
It's been a weird couple years,but very grateful for um
continued, you know, strongbusiness for us, for our team
here.
And um, and uh I want to getinto a little bit next about why
I'm optimistic for where themarket is headed.
I'm gonna base some of this onan article um is actually it was
(03:48):
an opinion piece from a guynamed Gene Marks at the Hill
publication.
Um and I talked through this uhwith my sales team a couple days
ago at our meeting, but justwanted to bring up some of his
points and then talk about whyum I really think that he's on
to something and that we willsee um a boom or at least a real
(04:10):
uptick in the market coming intonext year.
So his the headline he had herewas a real estate boom is
coming.
Are you ready?
Um and what the author outlines,uh first of all, he acknowledges
a lot of what I was just sayingthat we've had kind of a tough
spot in markets the last coupleyears, both commercial and
(04:30):
residential markets.
Higher prices, low activity,high borrowing costs, um, this
kind of just slow, weird market.
But he predicts it will change,and and his prediction is for a
really significant boom.
Um so a lot of then what followsis him kind of going through
what are the ingredients, um,and then he believes those
(04:52):
ingredients will happen, butkind of what are the triggers in
the market that would uh createthat boom?
The first one is mortgage rateshaving to fall, and his trigger
that he gives is probably belowfive and a half percent.
Obviously, that one's prettyobvious, right?
So uh as I was mentioningbefore, higher interest rates is
(05:12):
part of what's really creatingthis issue.
And I say high, but really it'shigher than they were at those
artificial lows.
Historically, the rates we're atnow, you know, around six
percent are pretty pretty goodrates, really.
Um, but he does predict theywould need to drop and probably
in that five and a half range.
Um indications seem to be thatthat is what's happening.
(05:36):
Um, the Fed, which again, theFed rate and mortgage rates are
two completely different things,although they do have some
relationship um in the marketforces.
But the Fed has indicated thatthey predict that they'll
continue to lower rates.
Um, we do expect that themortgage rates will drop.
Um, and one of the things thatthat's gonna do is not only help
(06:00):
those buyers out and get off thefence, um, but also help free up
some of that inventory.
So a couple of interestingstatistics from that article.
Um he says 14.3% of outstandingmortgages have rates at or above
six percent.
So those are people who aredefinitely gonna benefit, right?
I mean, if all of a sudden yourrate goes down to five and a
(06:23):
half, then there's a realmotivation to make that move or
refi, right?
It could be refi, um, but it'sgonna at least free you up to be
more attractive to moving.
Um, and then two-thirds have aalmost two-thirds of mortgage
holders are between three andsix percent.
So those are the ones wherelet's say they're at four and a
(06:44):
half, let's say they're at fivepercent, let's say they're in
that range, it's still lowerthan what the rates will be.
That gap closing is gonna helpfree them up and maybe allow
some of the other motivationsthat they would have to move to
um to win out over just rate.
So I think that he's right onthere.
And the trend is heading in theright direction.
(07:06):
If inflation expectations arecurtailed, uh bond market
yields, which that's really whatdrives mortgage rates, is the
bond market.
Uh, if they decline a bit more,we could see um getting into
those rates here in the nextyear, five and a half or less.
And I think that really willfree up um free up some things
in the market a lot.
(07:28):
And then the other side of thatis commercial.
Um, we don't maybe talk quite asmuch about that, but there has
been quite a bit of talk about apotential crisis in the
commercial real estate world anduh particularly these ARM, these
adjustable rate mortgages thatuh are on generally five-year
terms, um, coming due, uh notnecessarily due, but adjusting
(07:51):
the rate.
Well, that adjustment seemedsuper dramatic when rates were
really high.
Um, but the Fed's rate cut umwere kind of uh affecting prime
um and that will can and thatcontinuing to come down really
could save that from happeningand even increase some buying uh
(08:13):
on the side of commercial.
So I think that that reallycould help kind of preserve the
commercial uh market and eveneven help grow it, particularly
if the economy continues togrow, right?
One of President Trump'sinitiatives with tariffs and
other things he's doing isreally to grow U.S.
industry, U.S.
(08:33):
manufacturing, U.S.
commercial sector.
If those things start to happenand the rates are a little bit
more attractive, really couldsee um some growth there in the
commercial sector.
So rates are kind of that firsttrigger, right, that he talks
about.
Second um is the stock market.
Uh, this is something that'sbeen obviously in the news a lot
(08:54):
and um and is high.
I mean, as of today, I just sawa headline this morning saying
that the stock market hitanother all-time high.
So despite a lot of the feararound what are Trump's tariffs
gonna do, he's gonna tank theeconomy, all these things, we're
actually seeing that um thestock market's been performing
very well.
Now, the author's point in thearticle that we're talking about
(09:17):
is that the market will need tohold or grow, right?
So if we saw a crash in thestock market, that would
obviously um affect the housingmarket.
So um that is a that is aningredient to watch.
Um a lot of people might thinkthat, yeah, we're at this
all-time high of more of uh thestock market, it's ready to
(09:38):
crash, maybe that's gonnahappen.
That's something that's totallyoutside of my area of expertise.
I don't know, but just somethingto watch because of course all
these other forces um could bevery strong.
But if we saw a huge downturn inthe stock market, that's gonna
affect everybody, including thehousing market.
People's confidence goes down,all of that kind of thing.
(09:59):
So something to watch.
Um, but again, I think that uhmy opinion, uh some of what
Trump's doing, some of what'shappening in the market um
should keep that relativelystrong for a while.
That's my opinion.
Um so we've talked about rates,talked about the market.
Third thing is income.
(10:19):
And this is where they're youknow, the job market has been a
little weaker.
That's obviously why interestrates have come down.
Um, but the while unemploymenthas a little bit been a little
bit higher, again, prompting theFed to drop rates, um the uh the
growth in um in wages hasactually been pretty strong.
(10:43):
So ADP, they're a um you knowpayroll processing company, um
they reported that over the lastmonth wage gains among job
stayers was 4.5% and among jobleavers 6.6%.
So people moving on to a new jobor staying in their job.
Again, 4.5, 6.6.
So in the middle there,somewhere around 5%, right?
(11:05):
Um job uh wage gains.
And that's real kind ofreal-time accurate data from a
payment processor.
Um inflation, however, iscurrently running around 2.9%.
I think there was a headlinetoday, 3%.
So um again, a little ticking upa little bit, which could be
(11:25):
concerning, but that wage growthis definitely outpacing by a
fair bit that inflation, whichagain is good news.
And um this is gonna allow,particularly maybe first-time
home buyers, the ability to savemore, the ability to um not just
save more, but maybe then affordmore of a monthly payment as
(11:49):
their wage growth outpacesinflation and get off the fence
and move in to the market.
Um, another headline that uhthat got a lot of attention is
how the first-time home buyeraverage age has gone all the way
up to 39.
Um, that's a topic that I'd loveto talk about more, probably uh
another podcast we need to do.
(12:09):
But um this may be somethingthat can help some of those
younger home buyers as wagegrowth does uh does occur and
inflation temps down a littlebit, might get some of that.
And more buyers is obviouslygoing to help the market.
Um, so maybe moving from rentersto ownership in the next few
years, really uh another goodheadwind for the market.
(12:34):
Now, number four, so he had fourpoints again.
We have interest rates, um, uhstock market, um, income growth,
and then the last one isinteresting.
This is more of a demographicchange of the wealth transfer
from baby boomers to the nextgeneration.
So this was kind of anastounding number.
(12:55):
Um, he talks about agenerational transfer of nearly
$124 trillion in assets over25-year period.
Now, again, I know 25-yearperiod is a long period, uh, but
we're entering into that, andthat's a huge number.
So um, wealth transfer um fromthat generation to the next
(13:17):
generation, basically olderAmericans to you know their
heirs, um, to their spouses, tocharities, um, they're they're
predicting a huge amount ofwealth transfer coming in the
next few years, um, which willgenerate activity again.
I mean, uh some people willmaybe just pass down their their
(13:38):
real estate uh and have it stillheld, but some of that will come
available, and more importantly,a lot of that wealth moving to
the next generation is going toallow them to invest in real
estate, to move up into biggerhouses, all those kind of
things.
And so that that shift thatwe're gonna see here with that
wealth transfer is prettysignificant and should again
(14:00):
provide some big headwinds uh tothat.
So um in conclusion, um, thisgentleman says everything is a
cycle for the last few years.
Real estate industry has beenmoving downward.
Um, we just talked about thatkind of in Moscow, it's been
more like stagnation rather thanmoving downward.
But as all these things arecycles, um, it will change, it
(14:24):
will be a boom.
Um, we don't know exactly whenthat'll happen, but again, it is
coming.
It will, those things willchange.
Um, and I think that we need tobe ready.
And uh obviously for us in realestate, that's an important
thing, but for home buyers aswell, uh, whether you're an
investor, first-time home buyer,getting all of your ducks in a
(14:47):
row and being ready for thatshift is is gonna be really
important.
Because one of the things thatsome people often say is like,
well, I'm just gonna wait tillinterest rates come down and
there's more inventory, maybeprices will drop, it'll be that
may be true, but generallyspeaking, as those rates drop,
as more buyers enter the market,again, markets are supply and
(15:09):
demand, you're gonna increasethe demand side as well, and
it's gonna be tough.
There's gonna be competition.
And so getting your house inorder now, getting your ducks in
a row, getting ready for thosethings, um, is I think really
what behooves you to speak tomaybe especially those younger
first-time home buyers or peoplewho are renting, getting ready
(15:32):
to buy.
Um, I thought I'd share thiskind of interesting strategy
that some one of my buyers umhad that I thought was super
smart.
Uh, I don't know if it was theiridea or if it was given to them
by somebody else, but whatthey're doing is uh, I guess one
of the reasons why we're seeingum those home buyers, especially
(15:53):
first-time home buyers, delayingso much and maybe holding out is
because right now it is on amonthly basis definitely a lot
cheaper to rent than it is tobuy.
That's just the reality.
Um and so, you know, I'll usesome real round numbers.
Uh, let's say it costs youfifteen hundred dollars a month
(16:14):
in rent right now, and you'relooking at a mortgage to buy a
house, you know, you want to uhyou want to get a decent house,
whatever, you're looking at$3,000 a month.
Again, just throwing out roundnumbers.
So twice as much in mortgagepayment than you're paying in
rent.
Well, a lot of people just can'tstomach that.
And sure, there there are timeswhere you just can't afford it,
(16:34):
right?
And of course, go talk to alender, get pre-qualified,
figure out what you actuallycan't afford.
But if it's just that strength,uh that that preparation for
like, man, how are we gonna goto paying twice as much a month
for our housing costs than weare now?
What this um what this young uhcouple is doing is actually
(16:55):
basically already budgeting forand um quote unquote, I guess,
paying out that higher amount,again, using fictitious numbers,
but say it's$3,000 a month.
So they've got$1,500 a month inrent, and then that other$1,500,
they're putting away into asavings account that's kind of
hidden, right?
It's like almost out of touchthat they're putting away every
(17:18):
month.
So what that does is not only umprepares them for it, but really
also builds up that nest egg,builds up that cash for either
reserves for repairs and thingsin the future once they're
homeowners or for that downpayment.
But I think more importantly,again, it's just creating your
monthly budget around it so thatit's not this big scary leap.
(17:40):
You're already used to it andyou know, man, we know we can
afford 3,000 a month becausethat's what we're putting away
now.
Um, so I think it's a it's acool idea, um, something that
could really be a big benefitand would encourage other young
uh home buyers to be doingsomething similar.
So um, yeah, that's about all Ihave today.
Shorter podcast, you just getme, um, but wanted to jump back
(18:03):
into it.
And uh, we've got some some funepisodes um planned now with
some guests and and working tohave more.
So if you have any ideas forguests, ideas for podcast
episodes, definitely send themin as we're jumping back into
this Kestrel Country podcast.
So hope you have a great day anduh enjoy this beautiful fall.
(18:26):
Thanks for joining us.
Like, share, subscribe.
We'll see you next week.
This is the Testal Country Podcast where we discuss
the people, the places, andevents all around Tesco Country.
So given that it's been a whilesince we've recorded a podcast,
I want to talk a little bitabout what's been happening in
(00:34):
real estate and a little bit ofsome predictions for the future
for coming into next year.
As it is as of today, we'regetting to be late October.
So beautiful fall here on thePalouse, and it really has been
a beautiful fall.
We've had amazing weather andit's been great.
(00:54):
But let's talk a little bitabout what's been going on in
the real estate market.
So last two years, I would saythe uh way to classify it here,
and I'm talking about locally,but it's really been true
nationally too, is a bit ofstagnation.
It's been slow and weird.
(01:15):
Um what do I mean by weird?
Well, it's been uh the market'snot been totally dead, but
there's just been a low numberof transactions overall and a
little bit of a stalemate withboth buyers and sellers being a
little bit more on the fence.
With sellers, a lot of that iscoming from the super low, kind
(01:37):
of artificially low interestrates that we saw post-COVID.
So there are a lot of people whoeither bought or refinanced at
in that time where interestrates got super, super really
artificially low in the twos andthrees, and then obviously shot
back up, got almost to 8%, andhave been kind of hovering
(01:58):
relatively high in the sixes andsevens the last year or two.
What that's done is had thislock-in effect where basically
it's it's hard for people towant to trade up or trade out of
that really low mortgage ratethat they've got fixed for 30
years and buy at this higherrate, especially when prices
(02:19):
haven't come down.
And part of why prices haven'tcome down is because of that low
inventory.
So it's a little bit of a trapcycle there.
And then that's on the sellerside why inventory is low, which
then again keeps pricesrelatively high.
Then we've also seen on thebuyer side, obviously, that
difficulty of high interestrates and stubborn prices
(02:43):
creating a little bit of again,this stalemate.
So you know, homes that arepriced right are still selling
quickly.
We've even seen some recentlywith multiple offers when
they're priced right.
But anything overpriced at allis just sitting on the market.
So that's generally what we'vebeen seeing.
Um, but some promising signsgoing into this later fall as
(03:05):
interest rates have started todrop.
Although what often happens thistime of year is that when people
see those interest rates startto tick down, they think, all
right, they're dropping.
Let's not jump in too soon,let's wait till they drop
further, uh, wait till spring,and maybe there's more inventory
and lower rates, right?
So um that's kind of what we'vebeen seeing in the market.
(03:26):
It's been a weird couple years,but very grateful for um
continued, you know, strongbusiness for us, for our team
here.
And um, and uh I want to getinto a little bit next about why
I'm optimistic for where themarket is headed.
I'm gonna base some of this onan article um is actually it was
(03:48):
an opinion piece from a guynamed Gene Marks at the Hill
publication.
Um and I talked through this uhwith my sales team a couple days
ago at our meeting, but justwanted to bring up some of his
points and then talk about whyum I really think that he's on
to something and that we willsee um a boom or at least a real
(04:10):
uptick in the market coming intonext year.
So his the headline he had herewas a real estate boom is
coming.
Are you ready?
Um and what the author outlines,uh first of all, he acknowledges
a lot of what I was just sayingthat we've had kind of a tough
spot in markets the last coupleyears, both commercial and
(04:30):
residential markets.
Higher prices, low activity,high borrowing costs, um, this
kind of just slow, weird market.
But he predicts it will change,and and his prediction is for a
really significant boom.
Um so a lot of then what followsis him kind of going through
what are the ingredients, um,and then he believes those
(04:52):
ingredients will happen, butkind of what are the triggers in
the market that would uh createthat boom?
The first one is mortgage rateshaving to fall, and his trigger
that he gives is probably belowfive and a half percent.
Obviously, that one's prettyobvious, right?
So uh as I was mentioningbefore, higher interest rates is
(05:12):
part of what's really creatingthis issue.
And I say high, but really it'shigher than they were at those
artificial lows.
Historically, the rates we're atnow, you know, around six
percent are pretty pretty goodrates, really.
Um, but he does predict theywould need to drop and probably
in that five and a half range.
Um indications seem to be thatthat is what's happening.
(05:36):
Um, the Fed, which again, theFed rate and mortgage rates are
two completely different things,although they do have some
relationship um in the marketforces.
But the Fed has indicated thatthey predict that they'll
continue to lower rates.
Um, we do expect that themortgage rates will drop.
Um, and one of the things thatthat's gonna do is not only help
(06:00):
those buyers out and get off thefence, um, but also help free up
some of that inventory.
So a couple of interestingstatistics from that article.
Um he says 14.3% of outstandingmortgages have rates at or above
six percent.
So those are people who aredefinitely gonna benefit, right?
I mean, if all of a sudden yourrate goes down to five and a
(06:23):
half, then there's a realmotivation to make that move or
refi, right?
It could be refi, um, but it'sgonna at least free you up to be
more attractive to moving.
Um, and then two-thirds have aalmost two-thirds of mortgage
holders are between three andsix percent.
So those are the ones wherelet's say they're at four and a
(06:44):
half, let's say they're at fivepercent, let's say they're in
that range, it's still lowerthan what the rates will be.
That gap closing is gonna helpfree them up and maybe allow
some of the other motivationsthat they would have to move to
um to win out over just rate.
So I think that he's right onthere.
And the trend is heading in theright direction.
(07:06):
If inflation expectations arecurtailed, uh bond market
yields, which that's really whatdrives mortgage rates, is the
bond market.
Uh, if they decline a bit more,we could see um getting into
those rates here in the nextyear, five and a half or less.
And I think that really willfree up um free up some things
in the market a lot.
(07:28):
And then the other side of thatis commercial.
Um, we don't maybe talk quite asmuch about that, but there has
been quite a bit of talk about apotential crisis in the
commercial real estate world anduh particularly these ARM, these
adjustable rate mortgages thatuh are on generally five-year
terms, um, coming due, uh notnecessarily due, but adjusting
(07:51):
the rate.
Well, that adjustment seemedsuper dramatic when rates were
really high.
Um, but the Fed's rate cut umwere kind of uh affecting prime
um and that will can and thatcontinuing to come down really
could save that from happeningand even increase some buying uh
(08:13):
on the side of commercial.
So I think that that reallycould help kind of preserve the
commercial uh market and eveneven help grow it, particularly
if the economy continues togrow, right?
One of President Trump'sinitiatives with tariffs and
other things he's doing isreally to grow U.S.
industry, U.S.
(08:33):
manufacturing, U.S.
commercial sector.
If those things start to happenand the rates are a little bit
more attractive, really couldsee um some growth there in the
commercial sector.
So rates are kind of that firsttrigger, right, that he talks
about.
Second um is the stock market.
Uh, this is something that'sbeen obviously in the news a lot
(08:54):
and um and is high.
I mean, as of today, I just sawa headline this morning saying
that the stock market hitanother all-time high.
So despite a lot of the feararound what are Trump's tariffs
gonna do, he's gonna tank theeconomy, all these things, we're
actually seeing that um thestock market's been performing
very well.
Now, the author's point in thearticle that we're talking about
(09:17):
is that the market will need tohold or grow, right?
So if we saw a crash in thestock market, that would
obviously um affect the housingmarket.
So um that is a that is aningredient to watch.
Um a lot of people might thinkthat, yeah, we're at this
all-time high of more of uh thestock market, it's ready to
(09:38):
crash, maybe that's gonnahappen.
That's something that's totallyoutside of my area of expertise.
I don't know, but just somethingto watch because of course all
these other forces um could bevery strong.
But if we saw a huge downturn inthe stock market, that's gonna
affect everybody, including thehousing market.
People's confidence goes down,all of that kind of thing.
(09:59):
So something to watch.
Um, but again, I think that uhmy opinion, uh some of what
Trump's doing, some of what'shappening in the market um
should keep that relativelystrong for a while.
That's my opinion.
Um so we've talked about rates,talked about the market.
Third thing is income.
(10:19):
And this is where they're youknow, the job market has been a
little weaker.
That's obviously why interestrates have come down.
Um, but the while unemploymenthas a little bit been a little
bit higher, again, prompting theFed to drop rates, um the uh the
growth in um in wages hasactually been pretty strong.
(10:43):
So ADP, they're a um you knowpayroll processing company, um
they reported that over the lastmonth wage gains among job
stayers was 4.5% and among jobleavers 6.6%.
So people moving on to a new jobor staying in their job.
Again, 4.5, 6.6.
So in the middle there,somewhere around 5%, right?
(11:05):
Um job uh wage gains.
And that's real kind ofreal-time accurate data from a
payment processor.
Um inflation, however, iscurrently running around 2.9%.
I think there was a headlinetoday, 3%.
So um again, a little ticking upa little bit, which could be
(11:25):
concerning, but that wage growthis definitely outpacing by a
fair bit that inflation, whichagain is good news.
And um this is gonna allow,particularly maybe first-time
home buyers, the ability to savemore, the ability to um not just
save more, but maybe then affordmore of a monthly payment as
(11:49):
their wage growth outpacesinflation and get off the fence
and move in to the market.
Um, another headline that uhthat got a lot of attention is
how the first-time home buyeraverage age has gone all the way
up to 39.
Um, that's a topic that I'd loveto talk about more, probably uh
another podcast we need to do.
(12:09):
But um this may be somethingthat can help some of those
younger home buyers as wagegrowth does uh does occur and
inflation temps down a littlebit, might get some of that.
And more buyers is obviouslygoing to help the market.
Um, so maybe moving from rentersto ownership in the next few
years, really uh another goodheadwind for the market.
(12:34):
Now, number four, so he had fourpoints again.
We have interest rates, um, uhstock market, um, income growth,
and then the last one isinteresting.
This is more of a demographicchange of the wealth transfer
from baby boomers to the nextgeneration.
So this was kind of anastounding number.
(12:55):
Um, he talks about agenerational transfer of nearly
$124 trillion in assets over25-year period.
Now, again, I know 25-yearperiod is a long period, uh, but
we're entering into that, andthat's a huge number.
So um, wealth transfer um fromthat generation to the next
(13:17):
generation, basically olderAmericans to you know their
heirs, um, to their spouses, tocharities, um, they're they're
predicting a huge amount ofwealth transfer coming in the
next few years, um, which willgenerate activity again.
I mean, uh some people willmaybe just pass down their their
(13:38):
real estate uh and have it stillheld, but some of that will come
available, and more importantly,a lot of that wealth moving to
the next generation is going toallow them to invest in real
estate, to move up into biggerhouses, all those kind of
things.
And so that that shift thatwe're gonna see here with that
wealth transfer is prettysignificant and should again
(14:00):
provide some big headwinds uh tothat.
So um in conclusion, um, thisgentleman says everything is a
cycle for the last few years.
Real estate industry has beenmoving downward.
Um, we just talked about thatkind of in Moscow, it's been
more like stagnation rather thanmoving downward.
But as all these things arecycles, um, it will change, it
(14:24):
will be a boom.
Um, we don't know exactly whenthat'll happen, but again, it is
coming.
It will, those things willchange.
Um, and I think that we need tobe ready.
And uh obviously for us in realestate, that's an important
thing, but for home buyers aswell, uh, whether you're an
investor, first-time home buyer,getting all of your ducks in a
(14:47):
row and being ready for thatshift is is gonna be really
important.
Because one of the things thatsome people often say is like,
well, I'm just gonna wait tillinterest rates come down and
there's more inventory, maybeprices will drop, it'll be that
may be true, but generallyspeaking, as those rates drop,
as more buyers enter the market,again, markets are supply and
(15:09):
demand, you're gonna increasethe demand side as well, and
it's gonna be tough.
There's gonna be competition.
And so getting your house inorder now, getting your ducks in
a row, getting ready for thosethings, um, is I think really
what behooves you to speak tomaybe especially those younger
first-time home buyers or peoplewho are renting, getting ready
(15:32):
to buy.
Um, I thought I'd share thiskind of interesting strategy
that some one of my buyers umhad that I thought was super
smart.
Uh, I don't know if it was theiridea or if it was given to them
by somebody else, but whatthey're doing is uh, I guess one
of the reasons why we're seeingum those home buyers, especially
(15:53):
first-time home buyers, delayingso much and maybe holding out is
because right now it is on amonthly basis definitely a lot
cheaper to rent than it is tobuy.
That's just the reality.
Um and so, you know, I'll usesome real round numbers.
Uh, let's say it costs youfifteen hundred dollars a month
(16:14):
in rent right now, and you'relooking at a mortgage to buy a
house, you know, you want to uhyou want to get a decent house,
whatever, you're looking at$3,000 a month.
Again, just throwing out roundnumbers.
So twice as much in mortgagepayment than you're paying in
rent.
Well, a lot of people just can'tstomach that.
And sure, there there are timeswhere you just can't afford it,
(16:34):
right?
And of course, go talk to alender, get pre-qualified,
figure out what you actuallycan't afford.
But if it's just that strength,uh that that preparation for
like, man, how are we gonna goto paying twice as much a month
for our housing costs than weare now?
What this um what this young uhcouple is doing is actually
(16:55):
basically already budgeting forand um quote unquote, I guess,
paying out that higher amount,again, using fictitious numbers,
but say it's$3,000 a month.
So they've got$1,500 a month inrent, and then that other$1,500,
they're putting away into asavings account that's kind of
hidden, right?
It's like almost out of touchthat they're putting away every
(17:18):
month.
So what that does is not only umprepares them for it, but really
also builds up that nest egg,builds up that cash for either
reserves for repairs and thingsin the future once they're
homeowners or for that downpayment.
But I think more importantly,again, it's just creating your
monthly budget around it so thatit's not this big scary leap.
(17:40):
You're already used to it andyou know, man, we know we can
afford 3,000 a month becausethat's what we're putting away
now.
Um, so I think it's a it's acool idea, um, something that
could really be a big benefitand would encourage other young
uh home buyers to be doingsomething similar.
So um, yeah, that's about all Ihave today.
Shorter podcast, you just getme, um, but wanted to jump back
(18:03):
into it.
And uh, we've got some some funepisodes um planned now with
some guests and and working tohave more.
So if you have any ideas forguests, ideas for podcast
episodes, definitely send themin as we're jumping back into
this Kestrel Country podcast.
So hope you have a great day anduh enjoy this beautiful fall.
(18:26):
Thanks for joining us.
Like, share, subscribe.
We'll see you next week.
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