July 14, 2024 • 55 mins
Former Chicago Bears player turned trading guru Jon Najarian joins us to share his unique journey from the chaos of open outcry trading floors to the precision of modern digital trading. Feel the rush of the pits as Jon recounts the electrifying highs and lows, and learn why he believes female traders often have the upper hand, thanks to their cautious and disciplined risk management strategies. This episode is packed with eye-opening insights into the realities of trading, both past and present.
We tackle the turbulent world of market disruptions and volatility, analyzing historic events like the 2010 "fat finger" trade and the impact of social media influencers like Roaring Kitty. Jon dissects the current challenges in the cannabis sector, despite legalization. Discover why cannabis stocks have struggled and why some investors still see potential in this risky market. This isn't just about trading; it's about understanding the forces that shape financial markets and the importance of staying informed.
Dive into advanced options trading strategies and market analysis with us. Jon shares notable trades in companies like Lyft, Vornado Realty Trust, and QuantumScape, emphasizing the value of spotting significant options activities. We explore why disciplined trading and diversification are crucial, especially when volatility is high. Plus, get an update on Market Rebellion's expansion and new ventures. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just getting started, this episode is packed with practical advice and expert insights you won't want to miss.
The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
my name is michael.
Guy at publisher of the leadlag report.
Join me for the rough hour ismr john nigerian.
Uh, john, I I often find that alot of people who see guys like
you in the financial media theyfeel like they know you, but I
don't know how much theyactually know about your actual
background.
Right?
So let's let's reset the tablefor those that are not familiar.
Who is John Deere?
Who are you?
What have you done throughoutyour career?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
All right and I won't belabor the earlier parts of my
career, but basically I came toChicago, happy to be here, was
lucky enough to play footballfor the Chicago Bears, which was
always a dream of mine to playpro football but also to play
for the Bears, because DickButkus was one of my favorite
(00:51):
players when I was growing up,and he, of course, and Walter
Payton and Gail Sayers werepeople that I grew up watching,
even though the first 12 yearsof my life were in San Francisco
, and I grew up walking to KezarStadium those of you who
remember that.
And then, as we moved toMinnesota, my dad became chief
(01:15):
of surgery.
I adopted other teams, like theMinnesota Vikings and like the
Chicago Bears.
But so I came out of college,played football for the Bears,
got cut after four games, waslucky enough to be in a city
that was proudly the center ofopen outcry, trading and open
(01:37):
outcry.
What does that mean?
Instead of pointing andclicking with one of these folks
, we literally would stand inthe pits and scream and shout at
each other, probably like youdo at presidential debates.
I sat there in the pits for1981 until 2004.
(02:00):
So for those 23, almost 24years, I was one of those men in
the pits.
They're men and women, of course.
Only about 5% of the floor waswomen, though, probably because
men can be disgusting.
They think it's good luck towear the same clothes that they
(02:20):
wore yesterday if they mademoney.
You know a lot of superstitions, a lot of bad eating choices at
lunch and things like that madethe floor pretty rank but
nonetheless, obviously a womancan be as good a trader as a man
.
But floor trading is a physicalsport.
(02:40):
It is bumping, at times hittingand buy, sold, you know, as
fast as you can.
Whoever's first gets the tradegets as much of the trade as
they want.
Sometimes they'll share it withtheir friends, other times not.
And it is sort of like intrading places when Eddie Murphy
(03:03):
and Dan Aykroyd go down intothe pits of the Comex, I think
it was, and they go down ontothe floor and they're trading
and Dan tells him you know theWorld Series, super Bowl, they
have nothing on this.
Well, of course they do.
The World Series, the SuperBowl, nba, nhl playoffs, those
(03:23):
are athletes.
There are some athletes andsome former pro athletes on the
trading floor, but for the mostpart it's adrenaline junkies
like me that figured out.
If I'm fast and I can do somemath quickly in my head, I can
make a lot of money trading head.
I can make a lot of moneytrading and it was the most fun
(03:46):
until about 2004 when I left,because very, very quickly this,
the mouse took over and now weall trade that way.
Even traders on the floor arepointing and clicking a lot more
than they're doing open outcry.
But that's what open outcry is.
(04:06):
A broker says I want to buythese, what's your offer?
And people compete for sellingat the lowest offer or not the
lowest offer.
I'm sorry.
They compete for selling at thehighest offer or buying at the
lowest offer, and we're allcompeting in a pit with, in some
(04:26):
cases, dozens of people, inother cases hundreds of people.
So anyway, long-windedexplanation, but that's what I
did for about 23, 24 years.
Then I moved upstairs.
Since then I trade just likeyou, just like Michael.
I trade pointing and clicking.
I try to use the sameindicators I used when I was on
(04:48):
the floor, but of courseupstairs it's silent.
I mean, there's not a sound andfor the most part, traders need
that sound to understand fearand greed in the markets.
That certainly helps and wehaven't had that since open
outcry.
Pretty much died.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So I find it interesting that you mentioned
women traders, because there's alot of interesting studies that
show that female hedge fundmanagers tend to actually have
better longer-term performancethan their male counterparts.
I'm not too proud, right, andthe thinking there is that they
don't blow up, they don't takejust in general, men because of
testosterone, they take on morerisk, women obviously not as
(05:31):
much, and, from a riskmanagement perspective, women
are more careful than men whenit comes to trading and
investing.
So I want to transition that toa discussion around risk
management, because whereeverybody is using a mouse and
very quickly trading with theclick of a button, risk happens
fast when it happens.
So obviously there's a lot ofcreative ways that you can
(05:54):
manage risk from an optionsperspective, but I want you to
lay a framework for how to thinkabout risk, and the real risk
is the risk of ruin, not just aregular drawdown.
So lay out sort of how youthink about risk, especially
when you're in a cycle like thiswhere there's so many
divergences.
Sure.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Well, it's one of the reasons that I absolutely love
options is their ability tomitigate risk.
Now you could also enhance risk.
You could take it to the nextlevel.
You could also enhance risk.
You could take it to the nextlevel.
But that's not really my goal.
Most people like Michael, orlike any of you that are trying
to make a living or build upyour retirement account,
(06:37):
whatever it might be, usingoptions.
They are a great tool for that,because options allow you,
allow me, to define my risk whenI enter the trade.
If I, for instance, jump in andbuy Nvidia today and or Tesla
even better example becauseTesla early in the day today was
(06:59):
up strong, it was up, you know,very strong in the morning.
You look at the range it openedat 263 and changed $263.
It traded up as high as $271.
Right now it is $242.
So that is a big open jump to271, sell off hard If you buy
(07:24):
the stock and if you set a stoploss, which I'm sure most of you
know becomes a market order ifit is triggered.
Now there are various forms ofstop losses.
I do understand that.
But if you say I'm going to buythe stock here on the opening
at 263, and I am going to set astop loss at 262 or 260.
(07:48):
If we trade there, one sharetrades at that level boom.
Your stop order will liquidateall the shares you bought at 263
at that level.
Whatever you picked as the stoporder 262, 261, 260, whatever
you picked as the stop order 262, 261, 260, whatever it might be
(08:10):
that's somewhat open-ended riskto me.
And yet, with options, I couldbuy an option that controls that
stock for a week, for instance,until next Friday, the regular
expiration.
What would that be then?
Let's see.
It's the 12th Friday, so the19th of July.
I could be in that trade untilthe 19th of July.
(08:30):
I've defined my risk on entrybecause all I could possibly
lose on that trade is theinitial amount that I paid,
which is much smaller than the$263 that Tesla's trading for.
Why is that?
Because it's only for a week.
It's a limited amount of time.
Options are a wasting asset, soall of you who have traded them
(08:54):
know that time decay is yourenemy when you're a buyer of an
option.
Conversely, if you're a sellerof an option, you're rooting for
that time decay.
So those of us that own thestock and sell upside calls
against it, as I have done inTesla, in Apple, in NVIDIA, in
(09:14):
Supermicro, in Micron Tech, inArm Holdings, any of these
stocks.
I am trying to enhance my yieldby selling an option, usually
with one or two weeks into thefuture.
Why?
Because that's very fast timedecay.
Somebody has just moments beforethat option is nothing and, on
(09:37):
the other hand, if I'm buying anoption, I tend to want a little
more time to be right.
So these are mistakes thatrookies, newbies, make all the
time.
They see something that lookscheap or they look at a daily
option, something that they buyin the morning and it's going to
be something or nothing by theafternoon.
(09:57):
Most cases, people losewhatever they paid for that
option by the end of the day.
Now, not everybody, however,because some of us again,
michael John, my brother, pete,people that know what they're
doing will trade daily options.
But it is not the bulk of whatI do.
It enhances what I do, but itis by far not my main focus.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
I want to expand on that point about selling options
for that yield.
I do a lot of writing onseeking alpha right.
I've seen your stuff.
I'm always blown away at thenumber of products that have
come out that are ETFs that havean option selling call strategy
to enhance yield and some ofthese home families have just
(10:43):
like insane yields right, justdoing that all day long and it's
profitable, but it's profitableuntil it isn't right.
Going back to that point aboutrisk, is there any evidence to
suggest that we've gotten to apoint in the cycle where that
options writing is so prevalentthat it could cause a
dislocation?
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Certainly it could.
The dislocation would primarilybe for a very, very
undercapitalized clearing firm,perhaps somebody that was on the
edge.
It wouldn't be for a GoldmanSachs.
It wouldn't be for a MorganStanley or Schwab or Fidelity or
(11:26):
our brokerage Sogo Trade.
It wouldn't be for any of thosebecause they have enough
capital, they have great riskcontrol measures in place and
these days, more and more ofthem are doing as we are doing
employing AI, artificialintelligence, to keep an eye on
(11:47):
the risk that people are taking,because if you're a brokerage,
you are taking on the risk ofeverybody that clears through
that brokerage, meaning that youknow there are people that are
trading at, for instance, schwaband they feel that their money
is safe at Schwab I would feelmy money was safe at Schwab and
(12:11):
there are people that clear at ano-name brokerage somewhere
where they don't have nearly thefull faith and credit of, you
know, the trillions of dollarsof deposits that Schwab might
have.
So in normal times it doesn'tseem that that risk of
(12:31):
dislocation of one of thoseprime brokers or brokerages is
that big a risk.
But could they become the tailthat wags the dog on a given day
, for instance, a day like insome cases today, michael, where
you have again the S&P 500opened higher, the NASDAQ opened
(12:53):
higher and now they're bothnegative and fairly robustly
negative.
Not crazy, not like 1987negative, but the S&P is down 46
points.
It was positive earlier in theday, so we're talking about at
least a 50 some odd point swingto the downside.
The NASDAQ was positive.
(13:14):
It's now down 325 points.
Again, that's only 1.7%, but doI think we could see somebody
take on too much risk and causethat dislocation that Michael
talked about there?
Folks, yes, we could see that,but it's not usually the sort of
thing that, for instance, I'llthrow one out, michael, back in
(13:37):
2010,.
Many of us remember that fatfinger trade where all of a
sudden, the markets fellmultiple percents like that, why
Somebody accidentally enteredan order that was far larger
than they intended.
I don't believe it was done onpurpose, but that caused that
disruption that you're talkingabout.
(13:59):
Could that happen in an option?
Sure, somebody could enter fartoo many options to buy or to
sell and drive the stock up ordown.
I mean, you don't need to looka lot further than Chewy just
over a week ago, when RoaringKitty put out that picture of a
puppy.
And was that option driven?
(14:20):
No, it was probably stockdriven, but nonetheless the
stock popped by over 24% as soonas he put out that picture of a
puppy, or an animated pictureof a puppy, and people began
thinking, oh, is he talkingabout Dogecoin?
Is he talking about Shiba Inu?
Is he talking about Chewy?
(14:40):
Well, it turned out it wasChewy that he was focused on,
but it went up and down likethat and they had to halt it
because of that.
So again, michael's point iswell taken.
You could see dislocations frominformation that gets
disseminated, right or wrongly,and options could be part of
(15:02):
that, because, again, you getleverage with options.
It's not just that you'recommitting that 1,000 shares of
NVIDIA at $132,000.
So, $132,000 position.
Instead, what if you're trading10,000 call options?
That represents a millionshares, because every option's
(15:24):
for 100 shares that wouldrepresent a million shares.
You can certainly swing somestocks with million share
positions and people routinelytrade 10,000 contracts, mainly
institutions in the likes ofNVIDIA, supermicro, tesla and so
forth.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
So you mentioned Chewy, which of course makes me
think of food chewing.
I'm on my second day of myseven-day fast.
I'm trying hard to get to sevendays, Seven days.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
I'm trying hard man.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
I'm trying hard, but I always try to find a
transition, right?
So it's like you're mentioningChewy and a question from
YouTube, from Rob, was what doyou think about the marijuana
sector?
And I'm relating that to Chewy,because if you smoke, you're
going to be hungry, right?
Yeah, all right.
So let's go through that.
As far as any thoughts on themarijuana, sector Boy.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
I have a cabin or a house in Michigan and Michigan
has just approved more overlaysof a map, meaning that they've
at least six new dispensariesbrand new, built from the ground
(16:53):
up.
You would think that, giventhat cannabis is legal in so
many states, for medical as wellas recreational, that these
stocks would have been greatinvestments Most of them if you
weren't in at the seed round.
You are not making money.
There's a whole host of reasonsyou know.
(17:16):
The prohibition against movingclass A or whatever drugs off of
between states and things likethat across state lines
certainly plays into it.
But I haven't seen a lot ofmoney being made in the cannabis
sector for quite a long time.
(17:38):
That doesn't mean you can'tmake money in there and in fact
if you own some cannabis stocksand you're selling calls, you're
probably a very happy camperbecause you're enhancing yield
dramatically with that.
But yeah, I have been involvedin the sector.
I even helped with innovationshares, come up with an ETF for
(18:01):
that for cannabis stocks.
But quite frankly, I don'tthink anybody's unless they were
in on seed round stuff, michael.
I don't think anybody's unlessthey were in on seed round stuff
, michael I don't thinkanybody's making money in the
cannabis space, buying thesestocks.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
I'm a fan and friend of Todd Harrison and I've done a
number oh, I love Todd.
I've done on marijuana and Ifeel the struggle because it's
been very hard.
You can believe in a sector, anindustry, but, man, that's been
a brutal space to invest in.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
Yeah, it certainly has, and Todd's as bright a guy
as anybody understanding both.
That issue I addressed aboutdistribution as well as some of
the other things.
But I mean you know from 2020till today that the one that
they put up on our screen just aminute ago Michael Advisor,
(18:56):
shares, pure Cannabis, msos,that thing was, you know, a $50
stock in 2020.
Now it's seven bucks.
I mean, these are incredibledisruptions of wealth, not
creators of wealth.
Again, unless you got in at theearly stage, I'm sure people
(19:17):
continue to take shots andsaying, okay, now that it's down
here at seven, it's got to goup from here.
Right, you'll look at the PEsof these stocks and they're
still kind of high, at least inmy opinion.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
The real play there would be NVIDIA acquires the
entire sector, because thereality is, with generating AI,
there's going to be a lot oftime for people to smoke.
I think that's sort of the wayto think about it.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Well and, by the way, I'm not saying you stumbled
upon it at all, but you bring upa great point.
I was just talking with myfriend Scaramucci and we were
both talking about AI and I saidcan you imagine how many jobs
are going to be lost because ofAI?
And we both just shook ourheads because it's going to be
(20:15):
incredible.
I know just from the roboticsside Michael robotics meaning
that so I helped raise over $100million for a company called
Miso Robotics.
And if you look up MisoRobotics folks you'll see and
I'm not trying to pump up, Idon't believe it's publicly
(20:38):
traded, so I have no reason topump it up, other than I worked
with them.
I like them, I know they'resmart people and they build a
burger flipping machine.
Turns out it also flips steaksand about 18% of steaks get sent
back not destroyed, but getsent back.
Oh, you know this isn't cookedto my liking.
(20:58):
I needed a little more, towardsmedium well or whatever.
But if it's cooked too far,they got to throw it out because
they can't use it unless theyturn it into a steak salad for
somebody the next day orsomething.
So that's an expensive thing tothrow those things out.
And then you couple that withthe idea that at a fast food
(21:20):
franchise that's paying $20 plusan hour for people to work
there, for instance, that's thelaw in California that is
pushing more and more of theserobotics for burger flipping
machines, for fry machines wecall it fry guy for sippy.
(21:41):
You know the drink machine, andthey know exactly how long
we'll wait at a drive-through,michael, before we'll say nope,
not going to go here.
I'm either going to go insideor find another McDonald's,
hardee's, whatever it might be,wendy's, if they can get.
With these robotics, the burgeris done, fries are done, the
(22:03):
drink is ready, all at the sametime because it's all being done
by the robots and they're alljust passing it down the line.
That's manna from heaven forthese guys.
Versus the 22 bucks an hourthey have to pay a person to be
there, and yet AI is going todisrupt far more than that.
So imagine how many jobs aregoing to be lost.
(22:26):
I think what we hit during thelowest employment rate that
we've recorded on record.
We won't come close to thatagain.
We will be going the oppositedirection, no matter who's
president.
It's not a political comment,it's just more jobs are going to
be lost due to AI than createdbecause of AI.
Speaker 1 (22:52):
Another question, this one from X from GoToWork.
Let's hear some unusual options, except he plays for today.
To me, everything looks unusualtoday.
I mean, we referenced it alittle bit earlier, but yeah,
you mentioned the entryturnaround on the S&P and the
NASDAQ small caps up three pluspercent.
That smells and feels a littlebit like some hedge funds that
(23:12):
were doing spread trades gettingblowed out Right.
A little bit like August of2008, 2007, rather.
But yeah, let's go through someunusual options please here.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
OK, well, I'll throw out a couple.
So, for instance, smh that's Slike Sierra, m, like Mary H,
like Harry.
Smh is the semiconductorholders ETF.
We have bearish activity inthat one.
A lot of September puts beingbought under where the market is
trading.
The market was $273 a share forthe SMH.
(23:46):
They were buying the September260 puts.
Let's see what's.
Another one here.
I just did my three at threejust a little bit ago, where I
look at stocks that are.
So let me give you those, let'sdo there we go.
(24:07):
Lyft, l-y-f-t this one.
The stock was $13.79.
They were buying upside callsat the $14.50 strike that expire
next Friday.
So that's Lyft, l-y-f-t.
V-n-o this one, august 29 callsbeing bought.
(24:30):
They bought them in one print4,998 contracts.
So that's nearly 5,000 options.
5,000 options at 100 shares peroption, because that's what you
control folks.
That's a half a million shareposition in VNO and it's at the
August 29 strike.
(24:51):
So not July, but August.
Third week in August theseexpire.
They paid a buck 35 for those.
And I'll throw out one more aspart of that.
Three at three EQX EQX $6 stock.
They're buying the 750 callsand I'll emphasize, as I usually
do on that show, michael, thatI do three at three.
(25:14):
I don't like buying way out ofthe money calls.
I will hit for singles anddoubles all day.
I don't need to move my handall the way down to the grip on
the golf club or on the bat andtry to swing as hard as I can to
hit a home run.
I don't need to do that.
(25:35):
That's not me bragging, that'sjust me saying that I have a
large account that I trade formyself.
I only trade for myself.
But when I'm doing those tradesI'm just trying to hit singles
and doubles.
I am not swinging for thefences.
Every once in a while you getone that works out like that
because, shoot, what was ittoday?
(25:56):
I know Delta, we had some Deltaunusual activity paid off today
when Delta announced bad or itwasn't horrible earnings but
they basically had loweredguidance.
Um, but let me see what I'mjust going to pull up real quick
.
What?
What was the?
Uh?
Let's see.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
Okay, Um quantum scape.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
So Q S is quantum scapecape.
We had it for unusual activity.
Volkswagen Group did a dealwith them for their lithium
metal battery tech.
Volkswagen is probably amongall the car manufacturers that
are the old school manufacturersversus Tesla, the new kid on
(26:48):
the block or Lucid or any ofthose.
But obviously Tesla makes moreEVs than any company but BYD in
China and Volkswagen saysbecause of this deal they did
with QuantumScape, they're goingto be able to basically do a
million cars, a million EVs ayear at some point in the future
(27:11):
.
Meanwhile I'm just going to hitQuantumScape here and see what
were they buying.
They were buying calls justrecently in QuantumScape and
those calls let me see where isthat it's posting up now.
Sorry, I had too many screensopen at the same time.
So, with the stock at $5, justbefore the 4th of July, july 3rd
(27:39):
, they were buying the 550 calls.
So that gives them the right tobuy the stock at 550.
They paid two or three centsfor each of those.
Well, today QuantumScape shotthrough.
I think it went all the way toseven today and as it did, let's
(27:59):
see QS traded all the way up.
It opened at 714.
It traded up to 728.
(28:21):
So the right to buy it at 550was worth nearly $2.
Let's call it $1.70 orsomething like that.
You paid two cents forsomething that went to $1.70.
That's a lot more than 10x.
So that was our big winnertoday, quantumscape.
But we did okay with, you know,a number of those unusual option
(28:43):
activities.
I'd say, michael, right nowthere is more unusual activity
than I have ever seen.
Don't know why.
You know, is it all Pelosi?
And you know the members ofCongress?
I'm sure the Republicans do ittoo.
By the way, I'm not sure thatit's Mitch McConnell, but some
smart Republicans are probablydoing it too, because guess what
(29:04):
they can do legal insidertrading.
Now they're trying to yet againpass some sort of bill to back
off of that and say, look, theAmerican public's getting pretty
pissed at us trading on thisinsider information.
But right now they still can,and they do on a daily basis, I
guarantee it.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
Unfortunately, I think a quarter of the American
public still thinks Greenspan ishead of the Fed.
You've got to be careful withthat line of thinking on that.
Markets obviously have a biasto go higher.
The number of days goes upversus down.
I'm not big on the optionsspace but I'm going to make the
assumption that from an optionsperspective, you probably
(29:46):
naturally want to be long bias,call bias more often than not,
aside from doing certainstrategies to manage Probably
about 70% of the time, I'd say70, I'm in calls, maybe 30% of
the time I'm in puts, as youknow, the old expressions stocks
take the steps up and theelevator down.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
uh, stocks take the steps up and the elevator down.
Those, those down moves happenfast.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
but you got to be just as disciplined to the
downside as the upside, exceptin 2022 where it was a staircase
down, which was unusual, rightin both stocks and bonds, as we
know.
But but okay, so let's talkabout that that 30 of the time.
Um, is there something from abig picture tech analysis market
movement perspective that makesyou say I need to bias the
(30:35):
positions to be more on the putside, or is it more just feel?
Speaker 2 (30:42):
I trade very little on feel.
These days, michael, I try tomake over 80, 85% of my trades
based on the unusual activity.
And what makes it so?
What makes unusual activitysomething that stands out to me?
Somebody buys a lot of options.
(31:03):
So if the open interest meetingfrom the time that option was
listed until today, it's got anopen interest of 500 contracts,
okay, what if it trades 5,000contracts tomorrow?
Number one I know those areopening trades.
They're not just flipping the500 in and out 10 times, they're
buying 5,000 contracts throughthe offer.
(31:26):
I want to be on that trade.
Sometimes that happens on theput side Frequently in fact, it
happens on the put side biggerthan the call side, and I'm more
than happy to follow rightalong with whoever that smart
money is.
Again, there are so many waysthat people can obtain
(31:49):
information that is not illegal.
In some cases it is, but inmost cases it's just that.
Well, john is in Puerto Rico.
That's where I live most of thetime.
John's in Puerto Rico, that'swhere I live most of the time.
John's in Puerto Rico.
He can't be at this supermicrocomputer investor day in
(32:10):
Las Vegas and at the same time Ican't be at the FDA awaiting a
drug approval and so forth andso on.
But I guarantee you somebody,just like the show Billions,
somebody at Axe Capital, is atthe FDA waiting to hear if that
(32:30):
drug sounds like it's going tobe approved or not.
It's really, you know, we'renot seeing as much.
In fact, the placebo is doingjust as well as that drug, in
which case, of course, it's notgoing to pass phase one, phase
two or phase three trials.
There are people that will be atall of those things.
(32:51):
Some of those people work forthe likes of Axe Capital, the
fictional firm, but the rest ofthem are working with Andreessen
Horwitz, even though they're aPE or a venture capital firm.
They're working with Blackstone, blackrock, you know, any of
(33:12):
the biggest hedge funds on earth, citadel, because that's going
to be alpha, that's going to besomething that allows them to
outperform the markets.
So they are going to havepeople there to garner as much
of that information as possibleand then, when they give it to
their you know the PMs on thedesks those guys are going to
(33:34):
guys and gals are going to betrading it.
And, by the way, back toMichael's point and mine about
women, I think sometimes,michael, men have too much ego
in the trade.
That's not to say that womendon't have ego, but for some
reason they're able to push itaside better in many cases.
Bryn Talkington, great example.
(33:55):
She runs shoot that big firm.
It's a multi-billion dollarfirm, she trades a lot of
options out of Houston, texas,and she will routinely cut her
losses I think faster than mostguys and she will then have less
(34:16):
of those drawdowns that guyshave saying I know I'm right.
I know I'm right and then againyou're not.
I know I'm right and then againyou're not.
Speaker 1 (34:27):
So on the unusual options activity, I am curious.
You mentioned Tesla and NVIDIAand others, the bag seven.
Is there anything to suggestthat you have better returns or
better risk, just whatever youwant to frame it with stocks
that are not in the media, thathave unusual options activity,
right Sort of?
Speaker 2 (34:51):
the things which are not getting attention, which
maybe it's a biotech company asan example.
Yeah, in fact, the best trades,I think quite frequently are
exactly like QuantumScape, whereit wasn't in the news until it
was.
Quantumscape moved 31, 32%today.
And why?
Because of that Volkswagen deal, of course.
(35:12):
But when you see somethingmoving and unusual activity like
what we cited in QuantumScape,that somebody bought a lot of
these calls a lot more thanusual, so, again, unusual that
without a known catalyst, knowncatalyst might be earnings.
So it didn't have earnings.
(35:33):
That's not why.
Was it a new productintroduction?
No, was it a lawsuit beingsettled?
No, but many of those might bethings that are known about a
certain stock that is likely tohave one of those catalysts.
If it doesn't have a catalyst,if it's not in the news, I like
that move all the better becausethere are a lot of amateurs,
(35:56):
even if they're not hedge funds,but they might have a lot of
money.
I know regular investors thattrade 5,000 contracts, that's
half a million shares, like wediscussed.
But I know investors that swingthat kind of bat.
I don't.
I trade 100 to 300 contracts ata clip.
I don't trade 5,000 contracts,but there are those that do, and
(36:21):
when would they do those tradeswhen they have insider
information?
Maybe, but most of them aredoing it because, hey, earnings
are tomorrow and I think AI isblowing it out, so I'm going to
buy some NVIDIA upside calls.
Well, I'd rather buy it becauseI saw unusual option activity.
I'd rather buy it when I don'tknow that they have earnings
(36:42):
tomorrow, but instead it's likeand I don't know that they have
earnings tomorrow, but insteadit's like why am I seeing all
this unusual activity over hereright now If there's no known
catalyst?
Maybe somebody really knowssomething that's not public.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
I'm jumping on that trade.
So you mentioned you do morethan just the options, obviously
.
So diversification is not justabout timeframes, about asset
classes, and more than just thenumber of stocks, number of
strategies.
So, with that in mind, I gotanother question from YouTube,
from Chris Sinclair, which sayswhat do you suggest to invest in
for 20 years, steady forretirement?
(37:18):
Now, I will caveat this bysaying who the hell knows what's
going to happen in 20 years,right?
I mean, it could either be anAI-driven world where we're all
getting fed or we're all goingto be fighting with sticks and
stones.
And if you know the quote thatI'm referencing, you know what
I'm referring to there, right?
It's a nuclear play for thewrong reasons, but any thoughts
of sort of just very long-term,outside of the options world
(37:48):
what's interesting to you.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
The most interesting thing right now that everybody
talks about, of course, is AI.
And then the next thing theytalk about, the things that
Michael writes about and soforth are okay, but is it priced
in?
Because, you know, whateverAmazon and a number of other
stocks 98 to 99, had thoseexplosive moves and then many of
(38:10):
them became dot bombs not dotcoms, dot bombs and some
survived, like Amazon.
It went down to single digitsbut obviously turned it around
and survived and thrived.
Obviously turned it around andsurvived and thrived.
So what with a 20-year timehorizon?
(38:33):
I would say energy, becauseright now AI is so important.
So many people are bettingbillions, perhaps trillions of
dollars on AI-related things andGod bless you if you have
invested in AI early.
I wish I invested in it earlier, but I've been in a number of
(38:54):
these stocks that I've talkedabout already MU, arm, nvidia,
supermicrocomputer, all of thosekinds of things, even Intel,
microcomputer, all of thosekinds of things, even Intel,
which was not a winner for me,but I think it will be.
(39:14):
I think the place to investwith at least a five-year time
horizon is energy, because thesedevices or these technologies,
I'll say it's not a devicebecause it's in the cloud, it's
in the data centers, but thosedata centers are putting up
mind-blowing numbers in terms ofelectricity demand pull, if you
(39:37):
will.
So EVs were already putting astrain on our grid and grids
around the world.
You couple EVs with AI andwe're in a world of hurt.
We cannot produce enoughelectricity for all of the EV
vehicles that are going to be onthe road along with AI, as more
(40:02):
and more people use it foreverything.
Ai as more and more people useit for everything.
I mean, you know, accenture did$900 million in AI this year or
, I'm sorry, this past quarter.
That's Accenture.
You had SoundHound todaytalking about.
Now they're SoundHound AI andthey're going to, you know,
(40:24):
basically play through Peugeotsand Vauxhall and all of these
vehicles just by me, you know,allowing SoundHound to do that
through that vehicle and provideAI for what I want to know,
what I want to listen to and allthat kind of stuff.
There is going to be so muchdemand on electricity that I
(40:47):
don't think you can lose bettingon energy.
I'm not saying fossil fuels,I'm not saying oil.
I think oil goes higher, by theway, but I'm not saying oil,
natural gas, that is a source ofenergy, instant on power, like
that.
So if you have a coal fireplant and you're at peak demand,
you're going to put on nat gasif you have the ability to,
(41:11):
because it takes a while to getthat water boiling with coal
once you're at peak, I mean, butwith nat gas they can boom,
fire up those additional boilersand get those turbines turning.
So I would say nuclear, whichis one of my top picks.
Ura is an ETF for it.
(41:34):
I'm in that, I'm in CCJ, camco,I'm in UEC, I'm in UU, uu
because I'm a true believer.
I think these go higher, higher,higher.
They were unduly hit by theFukushima disaster and Chernobyl
(41:55):
and people all of a sudden saidthis isn't safe.
We're going to shut down thesenukes, one of the biggest
mistakes Europe made.
France is lucky that theydidn't shut down as many as they
were going to, but a lot ofthese are going to be huge
winners five years from now.
Again, ccj is up seven times.
(42:17):
You put a thousand dollarinvestment, it's $7,000 five
years later.
There aren't a lot of those outthere, other than the AI plays,
but this is going to be one ofthem.
Speaker 1 (42:30):
Speaking of the AI plays another question from a
McMarket rebel Cool.
Why do you think AMD hasn'tgotten the love in the AI space?
Speaker 2 (42:42):
Why do I think what isn't getting love?
Speaker 1 (42:44):
AMD is not getting the love.
Speaker 2 (42:45):
AMD.
Um, yeah, you're right, it'snot getting as much, it's
getting some, but you're right,not as much.
Love, um, I don't exactly knowwhy.
Um, I haven't seen near theamount of unusual activity in
that one either.
So, in in some cases folks, um,like all of you, including
(43:09):
Michael, we can't be experts oneverything.
I can't tell you why, but onceI see something starting to move
and a lot of interest in it,then I can really research that
hard and find out what's there.
I mean, a lot of you are outthere.
I'm sure when you heardQuantumScape you thought lithium
, yeah, but they're not alithium miner.
(43:31):
They're not taking lithium outof the ground in Nevada or in
Afghanistan or whatever.
By the way, kazakhstan is whythose uranium stocks are hopping
, because Kazakhstan has someissues regarding extraction of
uranium from that part of theworld.
But and that just happenedyesterday I think overall the
(43:54):
lack of upside move out of AMDcould be partially on.
The things that Apple has beendoing creating their own chips
certainly hurt Intel over theyears when Apple was getting
deeper and deeper involved inchip development and so forth
for their myriad offerings ofcomputes, whether it's these
(44:20):
kind of computers or whetherit's laptops and desktops and
things like that.
Apple has hurt both of thosecompanies a lot as they've moved
away from chips by AMD andIntel.
Speaker 1 (44:37):
Taking it back to big picture, options traders are
supposed to love volatility.
We have some pretty lowvolatility and you and I both
know volatility can stay low fora long time.
A lot of that will depend uponcredit spreads.
As I keep saying, there's aconnection between credit
spreads and vol and equities.
(44:58):
Is there anything that wouldsuggest that from an options
perspective for example, if theVIX crosses 20 or 25 or 30,
you're changing up your optionsapproach and strategy?
At a portfolio level?
I mean, I know there's plentyof hedge funds that will degross
their leverage at certainlevels.
(45:18):
So when you see certain vollevels getting hit, what do you
do?
Speaker 2 (45:28):
levels getting hit.
What do you do?
I tend to be a bigger seller ofvol as it goes high and a
bigger buyer of vol when it'scheap, like this.
Why is that?
I would rather be in optionspreads or options outright.
When vol is cheap, it means mypremiums are lower.
When vol is high, I likeselling those.
Now, not in every case.
(45:49):
I'm not scanning constantly forwhere's the 300 vol right now.
You and I know, michael, that300 vol is attainable all the
time in biotech stocks, incancer treatment stocks, stocks
that are coming through phasetwo trials, that this is either
going to make or break thatcompany.
(46:09):
Yeah, they deserve 300 vol.
I'm not selling options on that, but if I'm talking about again
NVIDIA, ibm, dell, supermicrocomputer, whatever it might
be, and the vol is moving upbecause people are concerned,
chinese banks, for instance.
(46:31):
Kyle Bass was tweeting yesterdaythat Chinese banks are running
at 340% of GDP to their debt.
We run at one in the UnitedStates, these banks.
We run at one in the UnitedStates, these banks.
So could there be a majorfailure over in China?
Yep, there could be.
(46:52):
Is China completelydisconnected from the rest of
the world?
Nope, not at all.
So if we have something likethat.
Like you mentioned, creditspreads, which is smart because
those were the canaries in thecoal mine for 2008,.
Were those credit spreads?
If these credit spreads startblowing up again now, I'm not
(47:15):
saying they will, but all youhave to do is look at what
happened in March when thosevarious banks, like Signature
Bank, like Silicon Valley Bank,like Republic and so forth, when
their CDSs or credit defaultswaps were blowing up.
Yeah, you had a pretty goodindicator that there was trouble
(47:37):
and some people feasted on that.
Obviously the big four on that.
Obviously the big fourCitigroup, wells Fargo, jp
Morgan Bank of America, merrillfeasted on that because they
(47:58):
absorbed those like that.
But that wasn't the kind ofcredit defaults problem blow up
that we had in 2008, fortunately.
Could there be one of those outthere?
Eh, you know, that's what weall worry about, or we should,
and just as people you knowlooked at, for instance, the
president at the debate havestruggling to sound cogent and
(48:25):
so forth.
I think a lot of us saw some ofthe signs of this a long time
ago.
But how much can you bet onthat?
And I know you can bet onpredict markets and all that
kind of stuff, but the samething's true with bank failures
and things like that.
Until you actually see a lineand a run on those banks, which
(48:48):
we saw in all those that I justnamed, it's just you recognizing
, like Kyle Bass did, thatthere's a problem.
But is that problem going to besolved by just the Chinese
printing more yuan?
Yes, probably, and letting someof that bad debt just go away?
Yeah, probably.
(49:09):
So it's not the same as in theUnited States.
Speaker 1 (49:13):
As we wrap up, maybe talk to the audience a little
bit about market rebellion andsome of the stuff that you're
doing outside of X.
Speaker 2 (49:20):
Sure, well, this hat, the one I'm wearing 10X those
of you out there.
He's got so many companies thatare billion-dollar companies,
(49:49):
and the guy started as a carsalesman and started teaching
people number one how to sell,number two, how to manage their
businesses and things and thenbuilt this huge portfolio of
great businesses.
Well, we partnered with thembecause, as good as we think we
are at marketing to investorslike yourselves, we knew we
(50:11):
needed some more muscle and somemore marketing expertise and
sales, and that's what Grantbrought to us at Market
Rebellion.
So we're doing a big webinartonight.
Believe it or not, this numberwill seem strange almost it's so
big, but we've got 16,000people registered for our
(50:32):
webinar tonight at seven o'clock.
If you go to marketrebellioncom, you can see that, and it's
free, not charging a penny forit.
Are we selling something?
Yes, we're doing instant cashflow real estate portfolio.
You want to know how to makemoney on real estate without
owning any stock?
We'll show you tonight.
So we're doing that, michael,and thank you for letting me say
(50:55):
that we're.
Also, we bought a brokerage firmcalled SoGoTrade that we are
partnering up with those guys.
They've got stock options,futures, as well as
cryptocurrency, and they're in85 countries.
What did they need?
They needed what we needed andnow what we have with 10X.
(51:16):
They needed marketing and we'regoing to get this thing to be
multiple, hopefully 10 timesbigger than TradeMonster, which
we were lucky enough to sell toE-Trade in 2016.
The next time it's going to be10 times bigger and the tools
for traders, the spreads thatare built in it's free trading
(51:41):
we don't charge commissiontrading.
It's going to be big and Ithink you'll hear a lot about it
as we go through the rest ofthis year 2025, 2026.
I think it'll be a great ride.
Speaker 1 (51:55):
I give you a lot of credit, John.
You've been at this a long timeand you know how to communicate
and educate, and that's not aneasy skill, especially in a
world where you made that pointabout.
You're not an expert ineverything, which means you're
not as popular an ex as otherswhich claim to be experts in
everything.
Speaker 2 (52:12):
That's right, you know if.
What did Bill Maher say?
If Martians showed up, somebodywould show up as an expert on
Martian.
You know skeletal structure orsomething like that, you know
really Appreciate everybodywatching this live stream again.
Speaker 1 (52:27):
This will be an edited podcast under Leadlag
Live.
Check out that webinar if youare watching this live tonight,
and hopefully we'll see you allagain on another edition of
Leadlag Live.
Thank you, john, appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (52:36):
Thank you, michael Best, to you and all the
audience, Thank you.
Speaker 1 (52:40):
Cheers buddy.
my name is michael.
Guy at publisher of the leadlag report.
Join me for the rough hour ismr john nigerian.
Uh, john, I I often find that alot of people who see guys like
you in the financial media theyfeel like they know you, but I
don't know how much theyactually know about your actual
background.
Right?
So let's let's reset the tablefor those that are not familiar.
Who is John Deere?
Who are you?
What have you done throughoutyour career?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
All right and I won't belabor the earlier parts of my
career, but basically I came toChicago, happy to be here, was
lucky enough to play footballfor the Chicago Bears, which was
always a dream of mine to playpro football but also to play
for the Bears, because DickButkus was one of my favorite
(00:51):
players when I was growing up,and he, of course, and Walter
Payton and Gail Sayers werepeople that I grew up watching,
even though the first 12 yearsof my life were in San Francisco
, and I grew up walking to KezarStadium those of you who
remember that.
And then, as we moved toMinnesota, my dad became chief
(01:15):
of surgery.
I adopted other teams, like theMinnesota Vikings and like the
Chicago Bears.
But so I came out of college,played football for the Bears,
got cut after four games, waslucky enough to be in a city
that was proudly the center ofopen outcry, trading and open
(01:37):
outcry.
What does that mean?
Instead of pointing andclicking with one of these folks
, we literally would stand inthe pits and scream and shout at
each other, probably like youdo at presidential debates.
I sat there in the pits for1981 until 2004.
(02:00):
So for those 23, almost 24years, I was one of those men in
the pits.
They're men and women, of course.
Only about 5% of the floor waswomen, though, probably because
men can be disgusting.
They think it's good luck towear the same clothes that they
(02:20):
wore yesterday if they mademoney.
You know a lot of superstitions, a lot of bad eating choices at
lunch and things like that madethe floor pretty rank but
nonetheless, obviously a womancan be as good a trader as a man
.
But floor trading is a physicalsport.
(02:40):
It is bumping, at times hittingand buy, sold, you know, as
fast as you can.
Whoever's first gets the tradegets as much of the trade as
they want.
Sometimes they'll share it withtheir friends, other times not.
And it is sort of like intrading places when Eddie Murphy
(03:03):
and Dan Aykroyd go down intothe pits of the Comex, I think
it was, and they go down ontothe floor and they're trading
and Dan tells him you know theWorld Series, super Bowl, they
have nothing on this.
Well, of course they do.
The World Series, the SuperBowl, nba, nhl playoffs, those
(03:23):
are athletes.
There are some athletes andsome former pro athletes on the
trading floor, but for the mostpart it's adrenaline junkies
like me that figured out.
If I'm fast and I can do somemath quickly in my head, I can
make a lot of money trading head.
I can make a lot of moneytrading and it was the most fun
(03:46):
until about 2004 when I left,because very, very quickly this,
the mouse took over and now weall trade that way.
Even traders on the floor arepointing and clicking a lot more
than they're doing open outcry.
But that's what open outcry is.
(04:06):
A broker says I want to buythese, what's your offer?
And people compete for sellingat the lowest offer or not the
lowest offer.
I'm sorry.
They compete for selling at thehighest offer or buying at the
lowest offer, and we're allcompeting in a pit with, in some
(04:26):
cases, dozens of people, inother cases hundreds of people.
So anyway, long-windedexplanation, but that's what I
did for about 23, 24 years.
Then I moved upstairs.
Since then I trade just likeyou, just like Michael.
I trade pointing and clicking.
I try to use the sameindicators I used when I was on
(04:48):
the floor, but of courseupstairs it's silent.
I mean, there's not a sound andfor the most part, traders need
that sound to understand fearand greed in the markets.
That certainly helps and wehaven't had that since open
outcry.
Pretty much died.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So I find it interesting that you mentioned
women traders, because there's alot of interesting studies that
show that female hedge fundmanagers tend to actually have
better longer-term performancethan their male counterparts.
I'm not too proud, right, andthe thinking there is that they
don't blow up, they don't takejust in general, men because of
testosterone, they take on morerisk, women obviously not as
(05:31):
much, and, from a riskmanagement perspective, women
are more careful than men whenit comes to trading and
investing.
So I want to transition that toa discussion around risk
management, because whereeverybody is using a mouse and
very quickly trading with theclick of a button, risk happens
fast when it happens.
So obviously there's a lot ofcreative ways that you can
(05:54):
manage risk from an optionsperspective, but I want you to
lay a framework for how to thinkabout risk, and the real risk
is the risk of ruin, not just aregular drawdown.
So lay out sort of how youthink about risk, especially
when you're in a cycle like thiswhere there's so many
divergences.
Sure.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Well, it's one of the reasons that I absolutely love
options is their ability tomitigate risk.
Now you could also enhance risk.
You could take it to the nextlevel.
You could also enhance risk.
You could take it to the nextlevel.
But that's not really my goal.
Most people like Michael, orlike any of you that are trying
to make a living or build upyour retirement account,
(06:37):
whatever it might be, usingoptions.
They are a great tool for that,because options allow you,
allow me, to define my risk whenI enter the trade.
If I, for instance, jump in andbuy Nvidia today and or Tesla
even better example becauseTesla early in the day today was
(06:59):
up strong, it was up, you know,very strong in the morning.
You look at the range it openedat 263 and changed $263.
It traded up as high as $271.
Right now it is $242.
So that is a big open jump to271, sell off hard If you buy
(07:24):
the stock and if you set a stoploss, which I'm sure most of you
know becomes a market order ifit is triggered.
Now there are various forms ofstop losses.
I do understand that.
But if you say I'm going to buythe stock here on the opening
at 263, and I am going to set astop loss at 262 or 260.
(07:48):
If we trade there, one sharetrades at that level boom.
Your stop order will liquidateall the shares you bought at 263
at that level.
Whatever you picked as the stoporder 262, 261, 260, whatever
you picked as the stop order 262, 261, 260, whatever it might be
(08:10):
that's somewhat open-ended riskto me.
And yet, with options, I couldbuy an option that controls that
stock for a week, for instance,until next Friday, the regular
expiration.
What would that be then?
Let's see.
It's the 12th Friday, so the19th of July.
I could be in that trade untilthe 19th of July.
(08:30):
I've defined my risk on entrybecause all I could possibly
lose on that trade is theinitial amount that I paid,
which is much smaller than the$263 that Tesla's trading for.
Why is that?
Because it's only for a week.
It's a limited amount of time.
Options are a wasting asset, soall of you who have traded them
(08:54):
know that time decay is yourenemy when you're a buyer of an
option.
Conversely, if you're a sellerof an option, you're rooting for
that time decay.
So those of us that own thestock and sell upside calls
against it, as I have done inTesla, in Apple, in NVIDIA, in
(09:14):
Supermicro, in Micron Tech, inArm Holdings, any of these
stocks.
I am trying to enhance my yieldby selling an option, usually
with one or two weeks into thefuture.
Why?
Because that's very fast timedecay.
Somebody has just moments beforethat option is nothing and, on
(09:37):
the other hand, if I'm buying anoption, I tend to want a little
more time to be right.
So these are mistakes thatrookies, newbies, make all the
time.
They see something that lookscheap or they look at a daily
option, something that they buyin the morning and it's going to
be something or nothing by theafternoon.
(09:57):
Most cases, people losewhatever they paid for that
option by the end of the day.
Now, not everybody, however,because some of us again,
michael John, my brother, pete,people that know what they're
doing will trade daily options.
But it is not the bulk of whatI do.
It enhances what I do, but itis by far not my main focus.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
I want to expand on that point about selling options
for that yield.
I do a lot of writing onseeking alpha right.
I've seen your stuff.
I'm always blown away at thenumber of products that have
come out that are ETFs that havean option selling call strategy
to enhance yield and some ofthese home families have just
(10:43):
like insane yields right, justdoing that all day long and it's
profitable, but it's profitableuntil it isn't right.
Going back to that point aboutrisk, is there any evidence to
suggest that we've gotten to apoint in the cycle where that
options writing is so prevalentthat it could cause a
dislocation?
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Certainly it could.
The dislocation would primarilybe for a very, very
undercapitalized clearing firm,perhaps somebody that was on the
edge.
It wouldn't be for a GoldmanSachs.
It wouldn't be for a MorganStanley or Schwab or Fidelity or
(11:26):
our brokerage Sogo Trade.
It wouldn't be for any of thosebecause they have enough
capital, they have great riskcontrol measures in place and
these days, more and more ofthem are doing as we are doing
employing AI, artificialintelligence, to keep an eye on
(11:47):
the risk that people are taking,because if you're a brokerage,
you are taking on the risk ofeverybody that clears through
that brokerage, meaning that youknow there are people that are
trading at, for instance, schwaband they feel that their money
is safe at Schwab I would feelmy money was safe at Schwab and
(12:11):
there are people that clear at ano-name brokerage somewhere
where they don't have nearly thefull faith and credit of, you
know, the trillions of dollarsof deposits that Schwab might
have.
So in normal times it doesn'tseem that that risk of
(12:31):
dislocation of one of thoseprime brokers or brokerages is
that big a risk.
But could they become the tailthat wags the dog on a given day
, for instance, a day like insome cases today, michael, where
you have again the S&P 500opened higher, the NASDAQ opened
(12:53):
higher and now they're bothnegative and fairly robustly
negative.
Not crazy, not like 1987negative, but the S&P is down 46
points.
It was positive earlier in theday, so we're talking about at
least a 50 some odd point swingto the downside.
The NASDAQ was positive.
(13:14):
It's now down 325 points.
Again, that's only 1.7%, but doI think we could see somebody
take on too much risk and causethat dislocation that Michael
talked about there?
Folks, yes, we could see that,but it's not usually the sort of
thing that, for instance, I'llthrow one out, michael, back in
(13:37):
2010,.
Many of us remember that fatfinger trade where all of a
sudden, the markets fellmultiple percents like that, why
Somebody accidentally enteredan order that was far larger
than they intended.
I don't believe it was done onpurpose, but that caused that
disruption that you're talkingabout.
(13:59):
Could that happen in an option?
Sure, somebody could enter fartoo many options to buy or to
sell and drive the stock up ordown.
I mean, you don't need to looka lot further than Chewy just
over a week ago, when RoaringKitty put out that picture of a
puppy.
And was that option driven?
(14:20):
No, it was probably stockdriven, but nonetheless the
stock popped by over 24% as soonas he put out that picture of a
puppy, or an animated pictureof a puppy, and people began
thinking, oh, is he talkingabout Dogecoin?
Is he talking about Shiba Inu?
Is he talking about Chewy?
(14:40):
Well, it turned out it wasChewy that he was focused on,
but it went up and down likethat and they had to halt it
because of that.
So again, michael's point iswell taken.
You could see dislocations frominformation that gets
disseminated, right or wrongly,and options could be part of
(15:02):
that, because, again, you getleverage with options.
It's not just that you'recommitting that 1,000 shares of
NVIDIA at $132,000.
So, $132,000 position.
Instead, what if you're trading10,000 call options?
That represents a millionshares, because every option's
(15:24):
for 100 shares that wouldrepresent a million shares.
You can certainly swing somestocks with million share
positions and people routinelytrade 10,000 contracts, mainly
institutions in the likes ofNVIDIA, supermicro, tesla and so
forth.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
So you mentioned Chewy, which of course makes me
think of food chewing.
I'm on my second day of myseven-day fast.
I'm trying hard to get to sevendays, Seven days.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
I'm trying hard man.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
I'm trying hard, but I always try to find a
transition, right?
So it's like you're mentioningChewy and a question from
YouTube, from Rob, was what doyou think about the marijuana
sector?
And I'm relating that to Chewy,because if you smoke, you're
going to be hungry, right?
Yeah, all right.
So let's go through that.
As far as any thoughts on themarijuana, sector Boy.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
I have a cabin or a house in Michigan and Michigan
has just approved more overlaysof a map, meaning that they've
at least six new dispensariesbrand new, built from the ground
(16:53):
up.
You would think that, giventhat cannabis is legal in so
many states, for medical as wellas recreational, that these
stocks would have been greatinvestments Most of them if you
weren't in at the seed round.
You are not making money.
There's a whole host of reasonsyou know.
(17:16):
The prohibition against movingclass A or whatever drugs off of
between states and things likethat across state lines
certainly plays into it.
But I haven't seen a lot ofmoney being made in the cannabis
sector for quite a long time.
(17:38):
That doesn't mean you can'tmake money in there and in fact
if you own some cannabis stocksand you're selling calls, you're
probably a very happy camperbecause you're enhancing yield
dramatically with that.
But yeah, I have been involvedin the sector.
I even helped with innovationshares, come up with an ETF for
(18:01):
that for cannabis stocks.
But quite frankly, I don'tthink anybody's unless they were
in on seed round stuff, michael.
I don't think anybody's unlessthey were in on seed round stuff
, michael I don't thinkanybody's making money in the
cannabis space, buying thesestocks.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
I'm a fan and friend of Todd Harrison and I've done a
number oh, I love Todd.
I've done on marijuana and Ifeel the struggle because it's
been very hard.
You can believe in a sector, anindustry, but, man, that's been
a brutal space to invest in.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
Yeah, it certainly has, and Todd's as bright a guy
as anybody understanding both.
That issue I addressed aboutdistribution as well as some of
the other things.
But I mean you know from 2020till today that the one that
they put up on our screen just aminute ago Michael Advisor,
(18:56):
shares, pure Cannabis, msos,that thing was, you know, a $50
stock in 2020.
Now it's seven bucks.
I mean, these are incredibledisruptions of wealth, not
creators of wealth.
Again, unless you got in at theearly stage, I'm sure people
(19:17):
continue to take shots andsaying, okay, now that it's down
here at seven, it's got to goup from here.
Right, you'll look at the PEsof these stocks and they're
still kind of high, at least inmy opinion.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
The real play there would be NVIDIA acquires the
entire sector, because thereality is, with generating AI,
there's going to be a lot oftime for people to smoke.
I think that's sort of the wayto think about it.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Well and, by the way, I'm not saying you stumbled
upon it at all, but you bring upa great point.
I was just talking with myfriend Scaramucci and we were
both talking about AI and I saidcan you imagine how many jobs
are going to be lost because ofAI?
And we both just shook ourheads because it's going to be
(20:15):
incredible.
I know just from the roboticsside Michael robotics meaning
that so I helped raise over $100million for a company called
Miso Robotics.
And if you look up MisoRobotics folks you'll see and
I'm not trying to pump up, Idon't believe it's publicly
(20:38):
traded, so I have no reason topump it up, other than I worked
with them.
I like them, I know they'resmart people and they build a
burger flipping machine.
Turns out it also flips steaksand about 18% of steaks get sent
back not destroyed, but getsent back.
Oh, you know this isn't cookedto my liking.
(20:58):
I needed a little more, towardsmedium well or whatever.
But if it's cooked too far,they got to throw it out because
they can't use it unless theyturn it into a steak salad for
somebody the next day orsomething.
So that's an expensive thing tothrow those things out.
And then you couple that withthe idea that at a fast food
(21:20):
franchise that's paying $20 plusan hour for people to work
there, for instance, that's thelaw in California that is
pushing more and more of theserobotics for burger flipping
machines, for fry machines wecall it fry guy for sippy.
(21:41):
You know the drink machine, andthey know exactly how long
we'll wait at a drive-through,michael, before we'll say nope,
not going to go here.
I'm either going to go insideor find another McDonald's,
hardee's, whatever it might be,wendy's, if they can get.
With these robotics, the burgeris done, fries are done, the
(22:03):
drink is ready, all at the sametime because it's all being done
by the robots and they're alljust passing it down the line.
That's manna from heaven forthese guys.
Versus the 22 bucks an hourthey have to pay a person to be
there, and yet AI is going todisrupt far more than that.
So imagine how many jobs aregoing to be lost.
(22:26):
I think what we hit during thelowest employment rate that
we've recorded on record.
We won't come close to thatagain.
We will be going the oppositedirection, no matter who's
president.
It's not a political comment,it's just more jobs are going to
be lost due to AI than createdbecause of AI.
Speaker 1 (22:52):
Another question, this one from X from GoToWork.
Let's hear some unusual options, except he plays for today.
To me, everything looks unusualtoday.
I mean, we referenced it alittle bit earlier, but yeah,
you mentioned the entryturnaround on the S&P and the
NASDAQ small caps up three pluspercent.
That smells and feels a littlebit like some hedge funds that
(23:12):
were doing spread trades gettingblowed out Right.
A little bit like August of2008, 2007, rather.
But yeah, let's go through someunusual options please here.
Speaker 2 (23:22):
OK, well, I'll throw out a couple.
So, for instance, smh that's Slike Sierra, m, like Mary H,
like Harry.
Smh is the semiconductorholders ETF.
We have bearish activity inthat one.
A lot of September puts beingbought under where the market is
trading.
The market was $273 a share forthe SMH.
(23:46):
They were buying the September260 puts.
Let's see what's.
Another one here.
I just did my three at threejust a little bit ago, where I
look at stocks that are.
So let me give you those, let'sdo there we go.
(24:07):
Lyft, l-y-f-t this one.
The stock was $13.79.
They were buying upside callsat the $14.50 strike that expire
next Friday.
So that's Lyft, l-y-f-t.
V-n-o this one, august 29 callsbeing bought.
(24:30):
They bought them in one print4,998 contracts.
So that's nearly 5,000 options.
5,000 options at 100 shares peroption, because that's what you
control folks.
That's a half a million shareposition in VNO and it's at the
August 29 strike.
(24:51):
So not July, but August.
Third week in August theseexpire.
They paid a buck 35 for those.
And I'll throw out one more aspart of that.
Three at three EQX EQX $6 stock.
They're buying the 750 callsand I'll emphasize, as I usually
do on that show, michael, thatI do three at three.
(25:14):
I don't like buying way out ofthe money calls.
I will hit for singles anddoubles all day.
I don't need to move my handall the way down to the grip on
the golf club or on the bat andtry to swing as hard as I can to
hit a home run.
I don't need to do that.
(25:35):
That's not me bragging, that'sjust me saying that I have a
large account that I trade formyself.
I only trade for myself.
But when I'm doing those tradesI'm just trying to hit singles
and doubles.
I am not swinging for thefences.
Every once in a while you getone that works out like that
because, shoot, what was ittoday?
(25:56):
I know Delta, we had some Deltaunusual activity paid off today
when Delta announced bad or itwasn't horrible earnings but
they basically had loweredguidance.
Um, but let me see what I'mjust going to pull up real quick
.
What?
What was the?
Uh?
Let's see.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
Okay, Um quantum scape.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
So Q S is quantum scapecape.
We had it for unusual activity.
Volkswagen Group did a dealwith them for their lithium
metal battery tech.
Volkswagen is probably amongall the car manufacturers that
are the old school manufacturersversus Tesla, the new kid on
(26:48):
the block or Lucid or any ofthose.
But obviously Tesla makes moreEVs than any company but BYD in
China and Volkswagen saysbecause of this deal they did
with QuantumScape, they're goingto be able to basically do a
million cars, a million EVs ayear at some point in the future
(27:11):
.
Meanwhile I'm just going to hitQuantumScape here and see what
were they buying.
They were buying calls justrecently in QuantumScape and
those calls let me see where isthat it's posting up now.
Sorry, I had too many screensopen at the same time.
So, with the stock at $5, justbefore the 4th of July, july 3rd
(27:39):
, they were buying the 550 calls.
So that gives them the right tobuy the stock at 550.
They paid two or three centsfor each of those.
Well, today QuantumScape shotthrough.
I think it went all the way toseven today and as it did, let's
(27:59):
see QS traded all the way up.
It opened at 714.
It traded up to 728.
(28:21):
So the right to buy it at 550was worth nearly $2.
Let's call it $1.70 orsomething like that.
You paid two cents forsomething that went to $1.70.
That's a lot more than 10x.
So that was our big winnertoday, quantumscape.
But we did okay with, you know,a number of those unusual option
(28:43):
activities.
I'd say, michael, right nowthere is more unusual activity
than I have ever seen.
Don't know why.
You know, is it all Pelosi?
And you know the members ofCongress?
I'm sure the Republicans do ittoo.
By the way, I'm not sure thatit's Mitch McConnell, but some
smart Republicans are probablydoing it too, because guess what
(29:04):
they can do legal insidertrading.
Now they're trying to yet againpass some sort of bill to back
off of that and say, look, theAmerican public's getting pretty
pissed at us trading on thisinsider information.
But right now they still can,and they do on a daily basis, I
guarantee it.
Speaker 1 (29:26):
Unfortunately, I think a quarter of the American
public still thinks Greenspan ishead of the Fed.
You've got to be careful withthat line of thinking on that.
Markets obviously have a biasto go higher.
The number of days goes upversus down.
I'm not big on the optionsspace but I'm going to make the
assumption that from an optionsperspective, you probably
(29:46):
naturally want to be long bias,call bias more often than not,
aside from doing certainstrategies to manage Probably
about 70% of the time, I'd say70, I'm in calls, maybe 30% of
the time I'm in puts, as youknow, the old expressions stocks
take the steps up and theelevator down.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
uh, stocks take the steps up and the elevator down.
Those, those down moves happenfast.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
but you got to be just as disciplined to the
downside as the upside, exceptin 2022 where it was a staircase
down, which was unusual, rightin both stocks and bonds, as we
know.
But but okay, so let's talkabout that that 30 of the time.
Um, is there something from abig picture tech analysis market
movement perspective that makesyou say I need to bias the
(30:35):
positions to be more on the putside, or is it more just feel?
Speaker 2 (30:42):
I trade very little on feel.
These days, michael, I try tomake over 80, 85% of my trades
based on the unusual activity.
And what makes it so?
What makes unusual activitysomething that stands out to me?
Somebody buys a lot of options.
(31:03):
So if the open interest meetingfrom the time that option was
listed until today, it's got anopen interest of 500 contracts,
okay, what if it trades 5,000contracts tomorrow?
Number one I know those areopening trades.
They're not just flipping the500 in and out 10 times, they're
buying 5,000 contracts throughthe offer.
(31:26):
I want to be on that trade.
Sometimes that happens on theput side Frequently in fact, it
happens on the put side biggerthan the call side, and I'm more
than happy to follow rightalong with whoever that smart
money is.
Again, there are so many waysthat people can obtain
(31:49):
information that is not illegal.
In some cases it is, but inmost cases it's just that.
Well, john is in Puerto Rico.
That's where I live most of thetime.
John's in Puerto Rico, that'swhere I live most of the time.
John's in Puerto Rico.
He can't be at this supermicrocomputer investor day in
(32:10):
Las Vegas and at the same time Ican't be at the FDA awaiting a
drug approval and so forth andso on.
But I guarantee you somebody,just like the show Billions,
somebody at Axe Capital, is atthe FDA waiting to hear if that
(32:30):
drug sounds like it's going tobe approved or not.
It's really, you know, we'renot seeing as much.
In fact, the placebo is doingjust as well as that drug, in
which case, of course, it's notgoing to pass phase one, phase
two or phase three trials.
There are people that will be atall of those things.
(32:51):
Some of those people work forthe likes of Axe Capital, the
fictional firm, but the rest ofthem are working with Andreessen
Horwitz, even though they're aPE or a venture capital firm.
They're working with Blackstone, blackrock, you know, any of
(33:12):
the biggest hedge funds on earth, citadel, because that's going
to be alpha, that's going to besomething that allows them to
outperform the markets.
So they are going to havepeople there to garner as much
of that information as possibleand then, when they give it to
their you know the PMs on thedesks those guys are going to
(33:34):
guys and gals are going to betrading it.
And, by the way, back toMichael's point and mine about
women, I think sometimes,michael, men have too much ego
in the trade.
That's not to say that womendon't have ego, but for some
reason they're able to push itaside better in many cases.
Bryn Talkington, great example.
(33:55):
She runs shoot that big firm.
It's a multi-billion dollarfirm, she trades a lot of
options out of Houston, texas,and she will routinely cut her
losses I think faster than mostguys and she will then have less
(34:16):
of those drawdowns that guyshave saying I know I'm right.
I know I'm right and then againyou're not.
I know I'm right and then againyou're not.
Speaker 1 (34:27):
So on the unusual options activity, I am curious.
You mentioned Tesla and NVIDIAand others, the bag seven.
Is there anything to suggestthat you have better returns or
better risk, just whatever youwant to frame it with stocks
that are not in the media, thathave unusual options activity,
right Sort of?
Speaker 2 (34:51):
the things which are not getting attention, which
maybe it's a biotech company asan example.
Yeah, in fact, the best trades,I think quite frequently are
exactly like QuantumScape, whereit wasn't in the news until it
was.
Quantumscape moved 31, 32%today.
And why?
Because of that Volkswagen deal, of course.
(35:12):
But when you see somethingmoving and unusual activity like
what we cited in QuantumScape,that somebody bought a lot of
these calls a lot more thanusual, so, again, unusual that
without a known catalyst, knowncatalyst might be earnings.
So it didn't have earnings.
(35:33):
That's not why.
Was it a new productintroduction?
No, was it a lawsuit beingsettled?
No, but many of those might bethings that are known about a
certain stock that is likely tohave one of those catalysts.
If it doesn't have a catalyst,if it's not in the news, I like
that move all the better becausethere are a lot of amateurs,
(35:56):
even if they're not hedge funds,but they might have a lot of
money.
I know regular investors thattrade 5,000 contracts, that's
half a million shares, like wediscussed.
But I know investors that swingthat kind of bat.
I don't.
I trade 100 to 300 contracts ata clip.
I don't trade 5,000 contracts,but there are those that do, and
(36:21):
when would they do those tradeswhen they have insider
information?
Maybe, but most of them aredoing it because, hey, earnings
are tomorrow and I think AI isblowing it out, so I'm going to
buy some NVIDIA upside calls.
Well, I'd rather buy it becauseI saw unusual option activity.
I'd rather buy it when I don'tknow that they have earnings
(36:42):
tomorrow, but instead it's likeand I don't know that they have
earnings tomorrow, but insteadit's like why am I seeing all
this unusual activity over hereright now If there's no known
catalyst?
Maybe somebody really knowssomething that's not public.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
I'm jumping on that trade.
So you mentioned you do morethan just the options, obviously
.
So diversification is not justabout timeframes, about asset
classes, and more than just thenumber of stocks, number of
strategies.
So, with that in mind, I gotanother question from YouTube,
from Chris Sinclair, which sayswhat do you suggest to invest in
for 20 years, steady forretirement?
(37:18):
Now, I will caveat this bysaying who the hell knows what's
going to happen in 20 years,right?
I mean, it could either be anAI-driven world where we're all
getting fed or we're all goingto be fighting with sticks and
stones.
And if you know the quote thatI'm referencing, you know what
I'm referring to there, right?
It's a nuclear play for thewrong reasons, but any thoughts
of sort of just very long-term,outside of the options world
(37:48):
what's interesting to you.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
The most interesting thing right now that everybody
talks about, of course, is AI.
And then the next thing theytalk about, the things that
Michael writes about and soforth are okay, but is it priced
in?
Because, you know, whateverAmazon and a number of other
stocks 98 to 99, had thoseexplosive moves and then many of
(38:10):
them became dot bombs not dotcoms, dot bombs and some
survived, like Amazon.
It went down to single digitsbut obviously turned it around
and survived and thrived.
Obviously turned it around andsurvived and thrived.
So what with a 20-year timehorizon?
(38:33):
I would say energy, becauseright now AI is so important.
So many people are bettingbillions, perhaps trillions of
dollars on AI-related things andGod bless you if you have
invested in AI early.
I wish I invested in it earlier, but I've been in a number of
(38:54):
these stocks that I've talkedabout already MU, arm, nvidia,
supermicrocomputer, all of thosekinds of things, even Intel,
microcomputer, all of thosekinds of things, even Intel,
which was not a winner for me,but I think it will be.
(39:14):
I think the place to investwith at least a five-year time
horizon is energy, because thesedevices or these technologies,
I'll say it's not a devicebecause it's in the cloud, it's
in the data centers, but thosedata centers are putting up
mind-blowing numbers in terms ofelectricity demand pull, if you
(39:37):
will.
So EVs were already putting astrain on our grid and grids
around the world.
You couple EVs with AI andwe're in a world of hurt.
We cannot produce enoughelectricity for all of the EV
vehicles that are going to be onthe road along with AI, as more
(40:02):
and more people use it foreverything.
Ai as more and more people useit for everything.
I mean, you know, accenture did$900 million in AI this year or
, I'm sorry, this past quarter.
That's Accenture.
You had SoundHound todaytalking about.
Now they're SoundHound AI andthey're going to, you know,
(40:24):
basically play through Peugeotsand Vauxhall and all of these
vehicles just by me, you know,allowing SoundHound to do that
through that vehicle and provideAI for what I want to know,
what I want to listen to and allthat kind of stuff.
There is going to be so muchdemand on electricity that I
(40:47):
don't think you can lose bettingon energy.
I'm not saying fossil fuels,I'm not saying oil.
I think oil goes higher, by theway, but I'm not saying oil,
natural gas, that is a source ofenergy, instant on power, like
that.
So if you have a coal fireplant and you're at peak demand,
you're going to put on nat gasif you have the ability to,
(41:11):
because it takes a while to getthat water boiling with coal
once you're at peak, I mean, butwith nat gas they can boom,
fire up those additional boilersand get those turbines turning.
So I would say nuclear, whichis one of my top picks.
Ura is an ETF for it.
(41:34):
I'm in that, I'm in CCJ, camco,I'm in UEC, I'm in UU, uu
because I'm a true believer.
I think these go higher, higher,higher.
They were unduly hit by theFukushima disaster and Chernobyl
(41:55):
and people all of a sudden saidthis isn't safe.
We're going to shut down thesenukes, one of the biggest
mistakes Europe made.
France is lucky that theydidn't shut down as many as they
were going to, but a lot ofthese are going to be huge
winners five years from now.
Again, ccj is up seven times.
(42:17):
You put a thousand dollarinvestment, it's $7,000 five
years later.
There aren't a lot of those outthere, other than the AI plays,
but this is going to be one ofthem.
Speaker 1 (42:30):
Speaking of the AI plays another question from a
McMarket rebel Cool.
Why do you think AMD hasn'tgotten the love in the AI space?
Speaker 2 (42:42):
Why do I think what isn't getting love?
Speaker 1 (42:44):
AMD is not getting the love.
Speaker 2 (42:45):
AMD.
Um, yeah, you're right, it'snot getting as much, it's
getting some, but you're right,not as much.
Love, um, I don't exactly knowwhy.
Um, I haven't seen near theamount of unusual activity in
that one either.
So, in in some cases folks, um,like all of you, including
(43:09):
Michael, we can't be experts oneverything.
I can't tell you why, but onceI see something starting to move
and a lot of interest in it,then I can really research that
hard and find out what's there.
I mean, a lot of you are outthere.
I'm sure when you heardQuantumScape you thought lithium
, yeah, but they're not alithium miner.
(43:31):
They're not taking lithium outof the ground in Nevada or in
Afghanistan or whatever.
By the way, kazakhstan is whythose uranium stocks are hopping
, because Kazakhstan has someissues regarding extraction of
uranium from that part of theworld.
But and that just happenedyesterday I think overall the
(43:54):
lack of upside move out of AMDcould be partially on.
The things that Apple has beendoing creating their own chips
certainly hurt Intel over theyears when Apple was getting
deeper and deeper involved inchip development and so forth
for their myriad offerings ofcomputes, whether it's these
(44:20):
kind of computers or whetherit's laptops and desktops and
things like that.
Apple has hurt both of thosecompanies a lot as they've moved
away from chips by AMD andIntel.
Speaker 1 (44:37):
Taking it back to big picture, options traders are
supposed to love volatility.
We have some pretty lowvolatility and you and I both
know volatility can stay low fora long time.
A lot of that will depend uponcredit spreads.
As I keep saying, there's aconnection between credit
spreads and vol and equities.
(44:58):
Is there anything that wouldsuggest that from an options
perspective for example, if theVIX crosses 20 or 25 or 30,
you're changing up your optionsapproach and strategy?
At a portfolio level?
I mean, I know there's plentyof hedge funds that will degross
their leverage at certainlevels.
(45:18):
So when you see certain vollevels getting hit, what do you
do?
Speaker 2 (45:28):
levels getting hit.
What do you do?
I tend to be a bigger seller ofvol as it goes high and a
bigger buyer of vol when it'scheap, like this.
Why is that?
I would rather be in optionspreads or options outright.
When vol is cheap, it means mypremiums are lower.
When vol is high, I likeselling those.
Now, not in every case.
(45:49):
I'm not scanning constantly forwhere's the 300 vol right now.
You and I know, michael, that300 vol is attainable all the
time in biotech stocks, incancer treatment stocks, stocks
that are coming through phasetwo trials, that this is either
going to make or break thatcompany.
(46:09):
Yeah, they deserve 300 vol.
I'm not selling options on that, but if I'm talking about again
NVIDIA, ibm, dell, supermicrocomputer, whatever it might
be, and the vol is moving upbecause people are concerned,
chinese banks, for instance.
(46:31):
Kyle Bass was tweeting yesterdaythat Chinese banks are running
at 340% of GDP to their debt.
We run at one in the UnitedStates, these banks.
We run at one in the UnitedStates, these banks.
So could there be a majorfailure over in China?
Yep, there could be.
(46:52):
Is China completelydisconnected from the rest of
the world?
Nope, not at all.
So if we have something likethat.
Like you mentioned, creditspreads, which is smart because
those were the canaries in thecoal mine for 2008,.
Were those credit spreads?
If these credit spreads startblowing up again now, I'm not
(47:15):
saying they will, but all youhave to do is look at what
happened in March when thosevarious banks, like Signature
Bank, like Silicon Valley Bank,like Republic and so forth, when
their CDSs or credit defaultswaps were blowing up.
Yeah, you had a pretty goodindicator that there was trouble
(47:37):
and some people feasted on that.
Obviously the big four on that.
Obviously the big fourCitigroup, wells Fargo, jp
Morgan Bank of America, merrillfeasted on that because they
(47:58):
absorbed those like that.
But that wasn't the kind ofcredit defaults problem blow up
that we had in 2008, fortunately.
Could there be one of those outthere?
Eh, you know, that's what weall worry about, or we should,
and just as people you knowlooked at, for instance, the
president at the debate havestruggling to sound cogent and
(48:25):
so forth.
I think a lot of us saw some ofthe signs of this a long time
ago.
But how much can you bet onthat?
And I know you can bet onpredict markets and all that
kind of stuff, but the samething's true with bank failures
and things like that.
Until you actually see a lineand a run on those banks, which
(48:48):
we saw in all those that I justnamed, it's just you recognizing
, like Kyle Bass did, thatthere's a problem.
But is that problem going to besolved by just the Chinese
printing more yuan?
Yes, probably, and letting someof that bad debt just go away?
Yeah, probably.
(49:09):
So it's not the same as in theUnited States.
Speaker 1 (49:13):
As we wrap up, maybe talk to the audience a little
bit about market rebellion andsome of the stuff that you're
doing outside of X.
Speaker 2 (49:20):
Sure, well, this hat, the one I'm wearing 10X those
of you out there.
He's got so many companies thatare billion-dollar companies,
(49:49):
and the guy started as a carsalesman and started teaching
people number one how to sell,number two, how to manage their
businesses and things and thenbuilt this huge portfolio of
great businesses.
Well, we partnered with thembecause, as good as we think we
are at marketing to investorslike yourselves, we knew we
(50:11):
needed some more muscle and somemore marketing expertise and
sales, and that's what Grantbrought to us at Market
Rebellion.
So we're doing a big webinartonight.
Believe it or not, this numberwill seem strange almost it's so
big, but we've got 16,000people registered for our
(50:32):
webinar tonight at seven o'clock.
If you go to marketrebellioncom, you can see that, and it's
free, not charging a penny forit.
Are we selling something?
Yes, we're doing instant cashflow real estate portfolio.
You want to know how to makemoney on real estate without
owning any stock?
We'll show you tonight.
So we're doing that, michael,and thank you for letting me say
(50:55):
that we're.
Also, we bought a brokerage firmcalled SoGoTrade that we are
partnering up with those guys.
They've got stock options,futures, as well as
cryptocurrency, and they're in85 countries.
What did they need?
They needed what we needed andnow what we have with 10X.
(51:16):
They needed marketing and we'regoing to get this thing to be
multiple, hopefully 10 timesbigger than TradeMonster, which
we were lucky enough to sell toE-Trade in 2016.
The next time it's going to be10 times bigger and the tools
for traders, the spreads thatare built in it's free trading
(51:41):
we don't charge commissiontrading.
It's going to be big and Ithink you'll hear a lot about it
as we go through the rest ofthis year 2025, 2026.
I think it'll be a great ride.
Speaker 1 (51:55):
I give you a lot of credit, John.
You've been at this a long timeand you know how to communicate
and educate, and that's not aneasy skill, especially in a
world where you made that pointabout.
You're not an expert ineverything, which means you're
not as popular an ex as otherswhich claim to be experts in
everything.
Speaker 2 (52:12):
That's right, you know if.
What did Bill Maher say?
If Martians showed up, somebodywould show up as an expert on
Martian.
You know skeletal structure orsomething like that, you know
really Appreciate everybodywatching this live stream again.
Speaker 1 (52:27):
This will be an edited podcast under Leadlag
Live.
Check out that webinar if youare watching this live tonight,
and hopefully we'll see you allagain on another edition of
Leadlag Live.
Thank you, john, appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (52:36):
Thank you, michael Best, to you and all the
audience, Thank you.
Speaker 1 (52:40):
Cheers buddy.
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