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April 26, 2021 62 min

PART 01: Government stimulus seems to work sometimes (e.g. US recessions after WW2). Other times it clearly fails: 1970s USSR, 1980s S. America and Africa, 1990s Japan, and USA post-2008. Presidents Bush (ECA 2008), Obama (ARRA 2009) and Trump (TCJA 2017) tried and failed. Will Biden be any different?

PART 02: When public debt rises to around 90% of GDP economic growth falls by 1% each year. A review of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's study and a look at global debt levels in 2008, 2011 and 2020.

PART 03: US Treasury Securities are the financial system's best collateral. But quantitative easing pulls Treasuries out of the system! In response market participants are 'forced' to repledge the SAME security more and more and more and more and more and more (and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more)!


---------SPONSOR----------
The motion picture event of the summer: (Con)Tango & Cash. When an international smuggling ring uses the local commodity exchange to send gold into backwardation, two macroeconomists take matters into their own hands... and onto the spot market. 

Starring Travis 'the President' Kimmel as Contango, "You can take delivery of lead -- punk."  

And Steven 'the Monarch' Van Metre as Cash, "You know how I promised to let you close out that trade?" 

"Yeah man, you did Cash!  You did promise!"  

"I lied."

With Grant Williams as the polite British guy, “Well chaps, you put the mockers on, didn’t you?”  

This motion picture will never be rated. Available only on-demand at Real Vision.


---------SEE IT-----------
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/


---------HEAR IT----------
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--------REFERENCES--------
Neither Keynes, Trump, Pumps Nor Priming: https://bit.ly/3gBbE39

The Economist: America’s extraordinary economic gamble https://econ.st/3xiGkwf

The Durable Hibernating of Vigilantism: https://bit.ly/3esvtaf
Growth in a Time of Debt: https://bit.ly/2S3COpl
BIS Total credit to the government sector: https://bit.ly/2Pl3UHB
The QEnundrum: https://bit.ly/2QuMJDY
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7


---------WHO-----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the Sir Ian Wilmut of the color pipette David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Amber Lights" by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound.

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