The Real Odds of Succeeding as a Podcaster (& How to Beat Them) | Podcast Strategy - Podcast Marketing Trends Explained: Data-Driven Podcast Growth Strategies

Episode Transcript
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Justin (00:00):
Your first podcast is probably your shortest ladder in
terms of its potential. But it'sreally hard when you're at the
top of a ladder to look down atthe ground again and go, I don't
want to get off the top here.

Jeremy (00:13):
When it comes to music albums, one in 10 makes its
money back. The same for venturebacked startups. And it's also
the same for movies. What ifit's gonna take 10 podcasts for
us to get the one that reallyhits it big?

Justin (00:25):
The truth is, almost everybody I know in business, in
podcasting, in creative work, inorder to get where they were,
they got to the top of oneladder and then they looked
around and said, okay, I've madeit as high as I can on this
ladder. I got to start again.

Jeremy (00:43):
So, Justin, have you heard of the novelist Brandon
Sanderson by chance?

Justin (00:47):
Yes. Here's a funny fact. I know he's a popular
author. I've never read any ofhis books, but I was so inspired
by his story during the pandemicthat I supported his
Kickstarter. But I still haven'tconsumed any of his material.
But I just loved his creativityand his outlook on being a
creative person.

Jeremy (01:09):
Yeah. I believe I know he's done a couple Kickstarters,
but he is actually, as far as Iknow, has the Guinness record
for the biggest Kickstarterever, which may have been the
one that you contributed to.It's some ridiculous number like
$40,000,000 or something likethat. And there's a whole
fascinating backstory that youcan look up, and he's talked
about it on podcast. I think theTim Ferriss show.
So he is a fantasy author andprobably the top fantasy author

(01:32):
working today. And he is just,like, absolutely prolific. The
number of books he has written,you look at his Wikipedia, it is
like dozens and dozens anddozens. But like you, not read
his material, but I've beenreally drawn to his outlook on
creativity. And my introductionwas actually listening to a
couple of different podcasts,where I heard his lecture series
referenced and went and checkedit out.

(01:53):
And I've listened through abunch of them so far. And in the
first lecture of the series, hebasically gives people some real
talk on, like, what it takes tosucceed as a writer today. And
so he's saying, like, making aliving as a writer. And he says,
you know, making a living as aprofessional writer, a touring
musician, or a working artist ishard, but it's not one in a
million, which is what, youknow, a lot of creative people's

(02:14):
parents, might put the idea intheir head. He said, if you are
seriously dedicated to this andwilling to invest ten years in
it, you've probably got morelike a one in 20 shot of making
a significant portion of yourincome from writing.

Justin (02:26):
Oh, I love This,

Jeremy (02:28):
I think, very realistic. It's also very daunting. And I
think a lot of times when we'relooking at creative work or kind
of like operating, building anaudience of any kind, it's kind
of like, yes, the odds arestacked against you, but one in
twenty, that starts to feelapproachable. But then he's also
saying, you're seriouslydedicated and you spend ten
years doing it, and you mightmake a significant portion of

(02:50):
your income from writing. So Ithought this was an interesting
thought experiment to bring intothe podcasting world and kind of
just ask the question, is itreasonable for us as creators,
podcasters, business owners,whatever, to expect our shows to
be successful?
And maybe the alternative tothat is, is it reasonable to
expect ourselves to succeed asindividuals in our creative
pursuits? And so I think in thisepisode, it might be useful to

(03:13):
unpack some of the traits ofboth the exceptional podcasts
and the exceptional creators.I'm curious on your take of
Brandon's point of view here,your experience as a creator.
What are your kind of initialthoughts here?

Justin (03:25):
I just love that ten year framing. I think if I was a
young person, I'm going to givethis advice to my kids to say,
Listen, if you just right awaystart your journal right now,
this is year one of my ten yearjourney towards this goal. That
is such an interesting, longterm way of framing your journey

(03:53):
in your career, as a businessperson, or as a creator. When I
started my first podcast in02/2008, well, ten years later,
that all culminated in mestarting a software company that
served podcasters. And sothinking in terms of a decade,
and thinking in terms ofiterations, like I'm not still

(04:17):
doing the same podcast todaythat I was doing ten years ago.
But every iteration, every yearthat has passed, there was this
gradual culmination of where I'mat today. And I think more
creative people should think inthese terms. And for people to
evaluate their progress in thattimeframe, as opposed to, I just

(04:41):
released my first episode threeweeks ago, and I've only gotten
20 downloads. No, this is a longprocess. You've got to look at
this in a bigger time frame thanperhaps you are right now.

Jeremy (04:53):
And I think you've laid out a bunch of threads that
we're probably going to pull onthroughout this episode. But to
start things off, let's go tothe data. And there is a lot of
data both related to podcastingas well as businesses and other
creative platforms more broadly.And I think the interesting
place to start here, we'veactually done an episode back in
season one on the power lawcurb, which was about the

(05:15):
percentage of shows thatreached, you know, 10,000
downloads an episode, which wasmore or less 10%. The percentage
of shows that doubled in sizewas 14%, so very small
percentage of shows.
These are again clearly theexceptions to the rule. It is
not every show that grows to10,000 downloads or doubles in
size from year to year. But thestat that I really like that
clearly shows how much of anoutlier, how much of an

(05:36):
exception these shows that, youknow, do persist and do find
some kind of traction are is thestats around pod fade. And so
this is something that manypeople in podcasting are
preoccupied with. And the statsthat I could find I've heard
this widely reported over theyears, but the most recent ones
that I found were 75 to 80% ofpodcasts are inactive by episode

(05:57):
10.
So most shows, four out of fiveshows that launch do not make it
to episode 10, and then morethan half of those shows don't
make it to episode 20. And sothis is something that I think a
lot of people in the industryfeel like, well, we've gotta
help people reduce pod fade. Idon't know that I see it that
way. I'm curious what yourthoughts are about the this
phenomenon.

Justin (06:16):
Yeah. I mean, what I wish we could actually track is
how many people are stillpodcasting. The creative and
business fields are interestingBecause one way to dramatically
increase your chances is to justkeep going. And this isn't true,

(06:37):
for example, if you wanted toget to, you know, be an NBA
basketball player. If you justcontinued to practice and
practice, the likelihood of, forexample, someone like me being
able to play in the NBA.
I'm 40 I'm almost 45. I'm fivefoot eight. I've got a lot of
things against me. There's justno way. Statistically, chances

(06:58):
are effectively 0%.
But in any sort of creativediscipline or knowledge work
discipline, If I wanted tobecome a world class urban
designer, I could actuallyprobably accomplish that in a
decade if I started right now.That is just an amazing

(07:20):
opportunity. And I think that'swhat these stats kind of reveal
to me is, do you want toincrease your chances of
success? Well, you've got tostay in motion.

Jeremy (07:33):
So this is interesting that I have also thought in the
past that, you know, we are bothpeople who've created multiple
shows. And this is actually apretty common thing in
podcasting. You know, it used tobe a bit of a red flag for me
when a client would come to me.They'd got one show that's not
really doing that well, and thenthey would wanna launch a second
show. And this was specificallyback when I had the production
agency, which should be a goodthing for me.

(07:54):
If they wanna launch a new showand bring in more business, it's
like, great. But it almostalways felt like now their
attention's getting split inhalf on two shows that are not
gonna be done that well. And Inever really saw that work out
well for anybody. But I thinkthat there is something to this
idea of launching multipleshows, maybe not concurrently,
but iterating on something goingforward over time as your own

(08:15):
taste change as you learn andyou grow. And so I'm curious,
like, how many shows have youcreated and why did you quit
them?

Justin (08:21):
Oh, man. I I've probably created at least 10 separate
shows, I think. Mhmm. Theoriginal show I created was
called Podcast Champion. Thatwas just me learning how to
podcast.
It was a way of interviewingexperienced podcasters. And then
I had product people. And thereason I moved on from product
people is I was tired of theinterview format. I wanted to

(08:43):
try a solo show. I did maybe twoor three solo shows.
And in the midst of that, I wastrying out all sorts of other
really creative out thereformats, like a podcast where
all of the episodes were sixseconds long. Each time, I
think, I was just interested inanother iteration. Maybe it was

(09:04):
a play on what I'd seen workbefore. Maybe it was an
observation. Like, oneobservation I made was a show
like what we're doing right now,where you have a consistent co
host, is a thousand times easierthan a show where you have
guests.
Guests makes it so much moredifficult. A show where you

(09:25):
consistently need to run ads isa lot more of a grind than a
show that is monetized adifferent way or has a different
benefit. I just found so manyepisodes. Was like, I've got to
get this episode out. And Idon't think it's a good episode.
But I've already signed thecontract with the advertiser, so

(09:46):
I have to get it out. So, yeah,there's a number of reasons that
I, you know, I kept tryingdifferent formats.

Jeremy (09:53):
I think I've created, by my count, seven, and some of
those have been private podcaststhat have been a part of, like,
a product that I made. Some ofthem have been I've been hired
to create a show for somebodyelse, but did all the ideating
show development, episoderecording, all of that. So I'm
on, like, seven. I think rightnow have another one or two that
I might launch this year. So I'minching up to that 10 mark as
well.
So this makes me think that backwhen I was in, audio school for

(10:16):
sound engineering and recordproduction in our music business
class, the instructor talkedabout how when it comes to
record labels releasing musicalbums, one in 10 makes its
money back. Mhmm. And one in 10is basically the same for
venture backed startups, makestheir money back. So just break
even. This is not like hugepayday.
It's like make back theinvestment, and it's also the

(10:36):
same for movies, roughly thesame numbers. And it got me
thinking, like, what if the samedynamics operate for us as
creators where it's gonna take10 podcasts for us to get, like,
the one that really, like, hitsit big? And, I mean, here we're
talking, like, this is only, youknow, making our investment back
for some of these. But I thinkthat that's not necessarily a
bad assumption to make, thatit's actually the extreme

(10:57):
outliers who the first thingthat they launch is the thing
that takes off. And actually,going back to Brandon Sanderson,
he talks about in this lectureseries where he recommends your
first five books, do not expectto sell those.
Those are you working onyourself. He calls it like, you
are the piece of art at thispoint. You are look looking to
refine your voice, to hone this.And you think about, like, how

(11:18):
much time goes into writing onebook, let alone five books.
Mhmm.
Like, that is probably years ofyour life. And he is basically
saying, do not expect to haveany kind of payoff before that.
That process is about refiningyourself, and then comes the
business process after that. Andso these these kind of numbers,
this kind of, like,exceptionalism, you can look at
this almost as like, well, it'seither me or it's somebody else,

(11:40):
and I'm in the minority. Or youcan, I think, start to stack the
deck in your favor and say,well, if I take more swings, I
actually get to turn the odds inmy favor?

Justin (11:48):
I think the other thing is that people think in their
minds that this 10 journey isjust linear. But now that you've
presented that image fromSanderson, I think it's actually
a hill. The first three, four,five years are just you climbing
the hill, working on your craft,getting better, honing in on

(12:08):
what you're good at, developingrelationships, exploring the
territory. And then the nextfive years after that are really
executing on what you'velearned, what you've gained in
that first part of the process.We're so impatient.
I am, too. I think one of theother great things about
podcasts is you can just releaseit, But you don't have to expect

(12:33):
it's going to be a hit. You justlike, I'm just gonna do this.
I'm gonna do the best I can. AndI actually like putting out
things in public just becausethere's something about that
process that you get thatimmediate feedback or lack of
that is helpful.
But to think about this, thinkof your life in terms of

(12:55):
iterations and in terms of thisidea of like, you know what?
Right now I'm in hill climbingmode. Right. I am just working
on myself, on the craft, onbecoming a better speaker, a
better communicator, in terms oforganizing my thoughts, in terms
of be being a better writer, youknow, all of those things that

(13:17):
you can work on in that firstperiod and then start to execute
on the other side of that.

Jeremy (13:22):
And, you know, I'll say for myself, like, most of the
projects that I have started, Ihave quit at some point, either
because I didn't feel alignedwith it anymore or it wasn't
working or the world moved onfrom it or whatever it might be.
And as a creative person who hasa lot of ideas, I have a lot of
shows I could create. I have alot of projects I could create.
And my feeling was that aftergetting over the hump of

(13:43):
quitting some projects. And so Istarted a show in 2020 called
Build A Better Wellness Biz.
And so essentially, our podcastproduction agency, through
word-of-mouth referrals, hadessentially 90% of our client
base was health and wellnessbusiness owners. Mhmm. And so I
was I'd resisted niching foryears. And eventually, I was
like, okay. If we're alreadygrowing this way, like, what

(14:03):
would happen if I just doubleddown and branded and said, okay,
we are a podcast productioncompany for health and wellness
businesses.
So I created this show. Andwithin 10 episodes, I was proud
of the content, totally detachedfrom it personally. I I didn't
care about it at all. And ittook me till episode 30 for me
to, like, shut it down, produce30 episodes, and quitting that

(14:24):
show was the most freeing thingI have ever experienced. And
actually, like, one of the mostlife changing decisions because
I realized, oh, I can startsomething and I can invest 6
months or nine months intodeveloping the show, and it
cannot feel right, and I canquit it, and then I can move on
to something I'm more excitedabout.
And the thing that's kind ofstuck with me is that life is

(14:44):
too short to work on projectsthat don't have traction and
don't feel like they're goinganywhere. And when I have a list
of projects, knowing that, like,to make any one of these things,
like, real and successful willrequire me to invest years of
time into it. But usually, youwill find that personal
alignment and some form ofexternal traction for the
projects that end up working.There is something at the

(15:06):
beginning where you're like,okay. There's something here.
I can feel it. There's momentum.I'm getting 20 downloads an
episode right now, but I feelgood about it. I'm getting great
feedback from it, and this isgonna grow if I, you know, pour
more fuel on the fire. Yeah.
So I think that mindset ofthinking like, there are other
projects out there that wouldwork better, and let's not pour
years of our life into somethingthat is not getting us where we

(15:26):
wanna go.

Justin (15:27):
Something we've explored in past episodes is this idea of
what I usually call foundermarket fit and founder product
fit. And in this case, would bepodcaster market fit and
podcaster podcast fit. You haveto have alignment in here, in
these contexts. And it suckssometimes. Because it's like,

(15:50):
wow, here's a great opportunity.
There's a big appetite. There'sa big market for this. And then
you have to evaluate your ownpassion and your own energy. And
you're like, I just can't wakeup every day making podcasts for
garbage dump operators. Youknow?
Just it doesn't fire me up. Andthat honesty, that self

(16:13):
reflection, and being able toquit something like that is much
different than quitting thepractice of the craft. You and I
talk about writing all the time.I just continue to struggle with
writing. I want to be a betterwriter.

(16:34):
And I'm just not going to quit.I'm not going to quit my whole
life. Because I just want tocontinue to try to get better at
writing. And if I pulled backfrom that and said, Okay, well,
now I'm not then that'squitting. But it's okay for me
to try multiple different themesfor my blog.

(16:55):
It's okay for me to try multipleiterations of my newsletter.
That makes sense because thereneeds to be creator market fit
and creator content fit. And ifthat's not there, yeah, find
something else because it'sgoing to be your energy in those

(17:15):
moments that drive you. Thecreator market fit piece, I
think, is both your audience,but also whatever you're trying
to get out of this monetarily orfor your business or whatever.
If that's not fitting either,then Yeah.
Yeah. You should look atsomething else.

Jeremy (17:34):
One of my favorite newsletters that I ever wrote,
and it actually is a it's a pageon my site and the you can
search for it. It's called YouShould Quit Your Podcast. And
so, basically, I wrote thenewsletter, put this page up,
and it's basically just a listkind of a listicle almost of,
like, however many reasons thatyou should quit your show. And
there's all kinds of, like, goodreasons that you should quit.
And I was trying to almost,like, play a little bit into the

(17:56):
stages of grief a little bit inmy sequencing of it where I was
like, there's this denial,there's this anger because
things aren't working, whatever.
And then coming to this note ofacceptance at the end that, hey,
it's actually there's many goodreasons to quit. So I kinda
wanted to work through all thesereasons that you might wanna
quit your podcast. And a coupleof people emailed me back to
that, and they were like, youshouldn't be sending this
message to people. We need more,like, motivation, whatever. And

(18:17):
a couple other people were like,I love this.
Yes. Thank you for writing this.And my thought was and still is
is that if I some randomnewsletter writer can convince
you to quit your podcast throughthis, you know, 200 word blog
post, you are never gonnasucceed. Like, if some random
person on the Internet can say,hey. You should quit your
podcast.
And you're like, yeah. Maybeyou're right. Then probably that

(18:39):
show does not have what ittakes. You are not excited about
it to see it through all theinevitable struggles and
challenges and all of the stuffthat comes with growing
something successful. Mhmm.
And so probably you're betteroff, you know, you should quit
your podcast because there arebetter ideas out there that are
going to be a better fit foryou. And it's like, yes. When
you're in one of those, if youread that and you're like, yeah.
Actually, I'm working on thewrong show, then I think it is a

(19:01):
wise decision to move on tosomething else that you actually
have that enthusiasm for to kindof power through the inevitable
dips. And, you know, this is abook we have to shout out, The
Dip by Seth Godin.
If you find yourself in thisquestioning phase of do I keep
going or do I quit, that is thedefinitive book on the topic.
Those exist for every everyshow, every creative project.
You get in, you're excited. Andthen once you're, you know, one

(19:22):
month, two months in, yourealize, oh, man, this is way
harder than I thought it was.And it's gonna take way longer
than I thought it was.
And, you know, what do I do withthat?

Justin (19:30):
Yeah. This whole conversation brings up this blog
post that my friend Nathan Barrywrote called The Ladders of
Wealth Creation. The reason Ilike this metaphor though, is
he's got this sequence ofladders. And there's a really
short ladder on one side, andthen a taller ladder, and then
another taller ladder, and thenthe tallest ladder on the far
right. And the the idea here isthat what's hard is that your

(19:57):
first podcast is probably yourshortest ladder in terms of its
potential for everything.
Your creative output, theaudience, the money you can make
from it, all that stuff. Butit's really hard when you're at
the top of a ladder to look downat the ground again and go, I
don't want to get off the tophere. I made it to the top of
this ladder. And what's hard isthat to go down to an adjacent

(20:23):
ladder that could actually bringyou up higher means you have to
start over again. That's hard.
The truth is, almost everybody Iknow in business, in podcasting,
in creative work, doesn'tmatter. In order to get where
they were, they got to the topof one ladder and that was like

(20:44):
the ceiling. And then theylooked around and said, Okay,
I've made it as high as I can onthis ladder. I've got to start
again. And it's painful.
But then you bring everythingyou learned from that first
ladder to the second one. Andthen hopefully that one gets you
up a bit higher. And then youlook around and go, You know
what? This is great. But there'san adjacent possible right next

(21:05):
door.
So I'm going to start overagain. And that willingness to
continually be like, okay, hereI am. But is it time to start
over?

Jeremy (21:19):
Yeah.

Justin (21:19):
Maybe it is.

Jeremy (21:20):
I think we've kind of laid out a bunch of traits that
we're going to dig into in moredepth about creators who tend to
have success and almost feellike success is inevitable for
them at some point. But beforewe dig into those in more depth,
I think we should look at someof the traits of exceptional
podcasts. So there are theseshows. You know, we had 14% of
shows in the last report thatdoubled in size, and then we had

(21:42):
10% of shows that were over10,000 downloads an episode.
These are specifically withinthe report pool.
And so that is it's gonna be asmaller percentage of all shows
that have ever been created, amuch smaller show. And I think
if you look at the listen notestats, maybe if you're at that
1% mark, you're getting, like,maybe one to 2,000 downloads an
episode. And so if you'relooking at, like, the big shows
in the global pool, like, it'sprobably point 5%, point 2%,

(22:06):
point 1% of shows are getting10,000, 50 thousand. A hundred
thousand is, like, point zeroone or less, I think. And so
very small percentage of showsactually really hit it big.
Obviously, that's one form ofsuccess that is mass appeal, but
it's something that a lot ofpeople aim for. So I would be
curious when you think about,like, exceptional shows either
in terms of audience size ormaybe financial, even if it's

(22:29):
not, like, huge audience driven,but it drives a lot of income.
Like, what are some of thethings that you see when it
comes to these exceptions?

Justin (22:35):
I love this quote from my friend Dax, who says, The
things that go the most viralare the things that are
contrarian in a shallow way. AndI was thinking, man, podcasts
are really the opposite of that.So like, you see something go
viral on TikTok or Instagram.It's like, oh, yeah. This is
contrarian in a shallow way.
Podcasts, on the other hand, theones that are exceptional, are

(23:00):
almost always very deep. Right?They're long form deep dives
into maybe unpacking achallenging topic, nuanced
discussion, lots of expertise.Let's talk to experts about this
and really unpack something thatwould be difficult to to unpack

(23:21):
in a tweet or an Instagram Reelor a YouTube video even. We're
going to spend thirty minutes oran hour or three hours on this.
And those are the shows Ipersonally love. Not these quick
hits like, This Week in theNews, I'm going to give you high
level, five second clips on allthe news stories. No. I want to

(23:45):
dive deep on a particular topicin that episode or over the
course of a series and reallyunderstand all of the details
and the nuance. And I want youto bring in people who know what
they're talking about, and we'regoing to unpack this together.
That is what feels exceptionalabout podcasts that I listen to.

Jeremy (24:07):
And, you know, that gets to something that a lot of
exceptional shows, a lot of bigshows, a lot of popular shows, I
think a lot of small creatorslook at them and they're like,
well, I'm covering the samecontent. Why haven't I broken
through? And I think there are alot of other things. We talked
about some of these in theprevious episode related to,
like, having something justperfectly packaged for the

(24:28):
moment in a way that isintuitive. And so the creator
usually has been in the spacelong enough that they just have
their finger on the pulse ofwhat's gonna work from a visual
design perspective, audio formatperspective, who the guests are.
Like, that creator is probablythinking about these things to
some extent strategically, butthey also just have this knowing
that, like, yes, this is thething that is going to resonate

(24:50):
now, which I I love that phrasethat you introduced in the past
episode. But the other thingthat I think this kind of depth
speaks to is that a lot of showsthat are successful, they may be
done by first time podcasters,but they're often done by people
who have a breadth and a depthof experience in media, in their
field, whatever that might be.And so they bring this deep

(25:12):
expertise, but they also happento be polished speakers. They
happen to know media. Theyhappen to know marketing.
And so I think a lot of thosethings are not visible on the
surface. And so you do get thisfirst time podcaster who has
this, like, great idea for ashow and breaks through, but you
see, oh, they used to be aproducer in the television
industry or a writer orsomething else or journalist.

(25:32):
And so it's like, oh, they arebringing this sensibility about
presenting content and tellingstories and hooking and engaging
people, and they know how to usetheir voice, and they have
connections. Like, there's allthese things that they're
bringing to the table. And Ithink that that's one of the
things where that has to beearned over a career, over a
decade, over many years whereit's like they have done the
thinking and the honing and therefining, and now it's just

(25:54):
being packaged in a podcast.
You know, you as a a creatormight feel like, well, I'm in
this category too, and why arethey getting 25,000 downloads an
episode and I'm getting 25? Andit's like, well, they brought
this kind of depth and nuanceand of experience that is only
achieved after having done thiswork for a long time previously.

Justin (26:11):
Yeah. And that goes back to that ten year time frame.
Like, you can tell somebodywho's been in motion for ten
years, improving, developingtheir skills, developing their
taste, all those things, andsomeone who's just starting out.
Just night and day. If youhaven't put in the work yet,
it's going to be difficult.

(26:31):
Right? You've got to put in thework. You've got to wake up
every day and show up in someform and project that forward
ten years and be able to lookback and go, oh, yeah. Like, I
sure did a lot of things thatgot me where I'm at today.

Jeremy (26:47):
A couple other things that come to mind for shows that
feel like they just breakthrough and grab and command
attention in a way that youalmost couldn't put your finger
on exactly why one show doesbetter and the other doesn't.
But I feel like the ones, theexceptional shows often just
have this kind of like freshness to them that you're like,
you can't describe why.Something about it just feels
refreshing. And it's likepackaged slightly differently.

(27:07):
It's like a little bit of adifferent note than the current
conversation in the space is.
And another part of that is italmost feels obvious in
hindsight, Like, this showneeded to exist. And it was
like, who was gonna create it?That was up for grabs. But it's
kind of like, when you see it,you're like, well, of course,
the show needed to exist. Ithink about a show like
Acquired.
Like, what they've done is justdeep dive storytelling related

(27:29):
to businesses. Yeah. And they'vekind of applied this lens. How
do they how do they talk aboutit? Like, bringing, like, the
ancient, like, storytelling of,like, history to business or
something like that?

Justin (27:37):
Yeah. Just like, you know, all of these ancient
legends that we tell about,like, King Arthur and Robin
Hood. Well, who are the modernversions of that? Well, it's
founders. It's CEOs.
We talk about Bill Gates andSteve Jobs in the same way that
we talk about King Arthur andall of these characters from the
past. And so they just recognizelike, oh, this is the modern

(27:59):
version of that. And we're goingto tell their stories for this
context. The other show thatcame to mind, like, this was
just perfect for this time wasTed Lasso during the pandemic.
Yeah.
It's like Mhmm. Maybe theydidn't even plan it. But in this
case, it was just like we neededthat uplifting, fresh, just no

(28:22):
one had really seen a show likethat before. And it just felt so
good and so perfect for thatmoment we were in. Is the show
we needed for this time.
And I think the only way you canreally develop that taste and
that intuition is over time.You're just like, what do we
need right now? And what I seeso many podcasters do is they're

(28:46):
recycling something that workedfive years ago. So, you know,
I've seen some that work fromReforlio, for Tim Ferriss or
whatever. I'm going to recyclethat format or that whatever.
It's like, no, no, no. What'sgoing to what is just under the
surface right now that couldspring up, that could grow in
this soil that we have rightnow. That's kind of how you have

(29:07):
to be thinking. What does thismoment require?

Jeremy (29:11):
The other thing that I think we can't avoid when
talking about this is theinfluence and the impact of luck
Mhmm. That I think many showsjust were in the right place at
the right time. And so Ted Lassowas a perfect example. Like,
they did not know the pandemicwas coming. Knowing what we know
about the show now, it's like,okay.
It's a great show, but there areplenty of great pieces of

(29:31):
content, TV, podcast, books,whatever, that the moment is
wrong and it doesn't gaintraction even though the quality
was great or it gets a mutedreaction. And so this is
something you you know, we weretalking about this episode a
month ago or when we startedmapping this out, and you had
this quote about, like, there'sa certain type of person who
buys better lottery tickets morefrequently. And the idea is that

(29:52):
I think a lot of creators whoare successful understand deeply
that there is always a hugeamount of luck that you can kind
of influence or you can helptake more lottery tickets out,
but it's kind of out of yourcontrol.

Justin (30:06):
Yeah. I mean, the thing about a normal lottery is every
time you show up to buy aticket, your odds don't really
change that much. There'snothing you can personally do to
buy a better ticket than thelast time. But certainly, if
every time you show up and buy aticket, even for a normal
lottery, you are increasing yourchances just marginally because

(30:29):
anyone who stayed home isguaranteed not to win the prize.
But you are at least improvingyour chances marginally.
Now with creative endeavors,this is quite different. Because
not only can you show uprepeatedly and increase your
chances and increase what wecall luck surface area, but you
can also buy better tickets. Youcan look around and go, Okay,

(30:51):
what am I willing to make a beton right now? Like I said, in
this moment. What does thismoment require?
Sanderson says, this is not likeone in a million chance. If you
are consistently showing up Andevery time you show up, you can
just think of that as I'm buyinga lottery ticket. Every time you

(31:12):
publish your work, you're buyinga lottery ticket. And then How
can I buy a better lotteryticket the next time? And this
is within our grasp.
And even Sanderson is sayingit's one in twenty. That means
nineteen people are going tolose in that scenario. But those
are great odds.

Jeremy (31:31):
It actually makes me think there's this, framework
that I heard Sean Puri, he's thecohost of My First Million, talk
about this, but he actually saidthat he first heard about it
from Marc Andreessen, theventure capitalist, who may have
quoted it from some booksomewhere. So this goes down the
chain, but he says there's fourtypes of luck. And so the first
type of luck is blind luck. Andso this is just pure random
chance that, you know, youhappen to be born in a country.

(31:54):
You know, we were fortunate tobe born in Canada.
We grew up speaking English.There are huge, big, lucky
breaks in our lives. You youthink about your family that you
grew up into, the access thatyou had to computers or, you
know, whatever it might be.Mhmm. This is all just pure
blind luck that we don't haveany ability to influence.
The second is called fortunefavors the bold. And so this is
about the luck that you cancreate by going out and making

(32:14):
noise and doing things. And soyou are meeting more people. And
so you're kind of increasingthat exposure and just creating
luck for yourself through sheerkind of hustle to some extent.
The third is chance favors theprepared mind.
And so this is all aboutdeveloping that expertise, that
knowledge to be able to spotthose better lottery tickets.
And so when you're out in theworld and something, you know,

(32:35):
comes across your field of viewand you're like, oh, there's
something there that nobody elseis seeing. You have done the
research. You have been able toprepare yourself to take
advantage of the luck thatappears on your doorstep that
most other people pass by. Andthen the fourth type of luck is
luck that finds you.
And so this is the form of luckthat when you become known for
something, people bringopportunities to you. And so if

(32:57):
you are known as the best in theworld at something, and the
example that Sean uses is, let'ssay you are the best deep water
scuba diver in the world. Andsome people, they find a
shipwreck, and there's a bunchof treasure that's supposed to
be there. And they come to youbecause you're the best, and
they say, hey, can you help usrecover this? And you'll get 25%
of whatever we get.
It's like you have built a namefor yourself as the go to person

(33:17):
for this thing, and now theopportunities start to come to
you. Mhmm. And so this is areally interesting framework for
it's again this latter ideawhere, you know, everybody
starts out with some amount ofblind luck, and that actually is
always going to impact everyoneall the time. But then there's
these steps that you can take bydoing things, by preparing
yourself, by studying bothbroadly and deeply, and then
becoming known for somethingthat you actually get more and

(33:38):
more luck that begins tocompound around you.

Justin (33:42):
Jason Roberts blogged about this. In his equation,
luck equals doing times telling.So do things, and then you tell
people. Do things, and then youtell people. And that sequence
is how you get those three typesof luck at the end there.
Fortune favors the bold, chancefavors the prepared mind, and

(34:03):
luck that finds you. Itincreases your chance of, Hey,
I'm going to do something, andthen I'm going to tell people
about it. And you think there'sa lot of people that do things,
they create things, they makethings, they never tell anybody
about it.

Charles Duhigg (34:17):
They never promote their work. They don't
get it out there. They're notdistributing it

Justin (34:21):
to the world and making it available. And obviously,
then you can't experience it. Ifyou hide what you've created,
then you're not going get any ofthat luck surface area. There's
no surface there. Right?
And so multiplying this doing,that's the engine. And then the
telling is that that's whatactually creates that surface
area so that people can discoveryou and know you, and the luck

(34:45):
can kind of come to you. There'sa better chance that luck will
hit you because there's agreater surface area there.

Jeremy (34:52):
I wrote a newsletter article maybe six months ago,
nine months ago, something likethat. And I was thinking about
discovery, which, you know, is alittle bit different than lucks,
thinking specifically aboutpodcast discovery. And I was
also thinking about it in theterms of surface area. Mhmm. And
so I was thinking about, okay,what do we got here?
We got height, and we got width,and we got depth. So height,
this is kind of your, like,rankings or your visibility. So
how high are you showing up inthe charts? Are you coming up

(35:13):
when somebody searches yourkeyword? Do you come up there?
Mhmm. So that's kind of like theheight of your discoverability
or your findability of yourshow. Then we've got width,
which is kind of like how widelycan people find you. So you're
on all the podcast distributionplatforms. Your pod show is
linked in your LinkedIn profileand your Instagram profile on
your website so people can findit wherever they find you.
And and maybe even there's likelists, top 10 podcasts on this

(35:34):
topic. And so you are increasingthe width of your
discoverability. Mhmm. Thenwe've got depth, which I kind of
labeled as perceived legitimacyor substance. So when people
come across it, it seemsintriguing.
It seems like there's somethingthere that's gonna pull them in.
And then the last one that I wasthinking about is like the
fourth dimension, time, and justthinking about how long are you
active and and are you activelydoing things and talking about

(35:56):
it? This comes back to this ideathat talking about, you know,
the ten year time span or thecareer long time span or
whatever that is. Mhmm. And thenthe more I started thinking
about that, the image that cameto mind is that there is a,
like, pool of people, a circleof people right now who are
interested and looking for ashow on your topic.
And so like that, let's justcall it, there are a thousand
people right now who are lookingfor a show like yours. But over

(36:19):
the next ten years, there mightbe a hundred thousand people who
begin looking for a show likethis. And if I am not currently
active and in motion andproducing the show over those
next ten years, those people arenot gonna find it. And so I
think that this is a reallyuseful lens to think about as
well in that, like, we canincrease that surface area in
all these different dimensions,one of which is time that just

(36:39):
like there are always new peoplecoming into and out of any
medium, into any topic area. Andthe longer that we are kind of
active there ourselves, the morepeople are going to almost just
randomly stumble across us.
And then if you think aboutincreasing our luck surface area
and all those other ways, maybemore of those people start to
seek us out as well.

Justin (36:56):
Mhmm. Yeah. I really like that framework. And I think
also thinking about all thosevariables you mentioned and just
realizing your time in motion,which is the last variable, you
need to spend your time workingon those other three. Height,
width, and depth.
Right? Like, okay, how do I getmore higher in the rankings?
Okay. Well, some of that isgonna be by having more depth.

(37:17):
Okay.
I'm gonna work on the depth. Howdo I get more distribution?
Well, okay. I gotta do thesethings. So you're just showing
up every day and kind of workingon all three of those at the
same time.
And just as you do that,gradually you build up
proficiency. You gradually getmore visible, higher rankings,
better distribution, more deepand well formed thoughts and

(37:37):
creative output. And over time,as you're doing that, yes, it it
kind of lifts everything.

Jeremy (37:43):
So these are kind of some of the traits talking about
shows that break through thatare exceptional in some way,
either in results or quality orwhatever. But there's also,
obviously, the creators behindthose shows. A lot of times, the
creators of exceptional showsare exceptional people in many
ways, and that is what powersthe shows to be interesting and
exceptional in their own right.I think there's often a mix of
traits that are good andhelpful, but also have these,

(38:06):
like, corresponding dark sides.And maybe dark sides is too
strong, but it can bedestructive in some ways.
Mhmm. And, like, some of thesethings that come to mind for me
is oftentimes almost this kindof, like, masochism where they
almost, like, love thepunishment of, like, showing up
every day and things notworking, but living for those
highs. Yeah. I think there'salso a bit of a gambler's
mentality here, thisobsessiveness where it's like

(38:27):
you talk to a lot of creatorswho are exceptional at their
craft, and they are obsessed tothe point of it kind of, in the
extreme case, ruins their lifein other ways where they just
neglect friendships,relationships, other life
experiences, but they becometruly world class at their
craft. I'm curious if you haveexperiences with people like
this or what your generalthoughts are on, like, some of

(38:48):
the traits exceptional creatorshave, good or bad?

Justin (38:51):
Yeah. I think you've named a lot of it. There has to
be this willingness to dothings. I'm going to not sit at
home. I'm gonna go out.
You really see this when you goto a conference. So when you go
to a conference, like, even forme, an extroverted person who
loves those things, there's abig part of me that just wants

(39:13):
to stay in my room. My room issafe. I'm not gonna get feel
awkward in my room. But all ofthe potential is out of the
room.
As soon as I step out of theroom, and as soon as I start
walking around, as soon as Iexpose myself in a vulnerable
way, unless I do that, I'm notgoing to get any of the
potential benefits. I'm notgoing to grow. I'm not going to

(39:36):
meet people, etc. I have thismemory in high school. I really
wanted to put on a rave in myhometown.
And I'd been going to raves withmy friends. And we had started
DJing. And so we rented a venue.And so even that was like
putting ourselves out there. Werented a venue.
We did all this stuff. But thenthere was a school dance. I was

(39:58):
still in high school. Andafterwards, the dance, everyone
was kind of in the lobby justlike standing around. And my
friend was like, you gotta standup and like tell them that
you're running an event.
That your event's coming up. Andthere's like, every part of me
did not want to do that. Thatwas like this completely

(40:20):
vulnerable. Like, as a grade 12student, I'm going to get up on
a table. And they just keptpushing me.
Like, you got to do this. Inthis particular moment, I think
that willingness for me to juststand up and say, hey, guys, I'm
putting on an event. It's goingto be our town's first rave.
It's happening at this time. Igot tickets.

(40:41):
Just that had a profound effecton me, had a profound effect on
the event. You know, it setthings in motion that I
benefited greatly from. And so Ithink people that are willing to
make those kinds of decisions.Like, I am gonna stand up. I'm
gonna put myself out there.

(41:03):
I'm gonna take a risk. The thedownside here is that I stand up
on the table and I getembarrassed.

Jeremy (41:09):
It's interesting. My wife, Kelly, is putting on an
event, and it's kind of asoftware developer and founder
matchmaking event in the no codespace. Mhmm. And she has been a
freelance software developer fora number of years, and she's
been a freelancer much longerthan And she's very active on
Twitter and social media, butnone of it is promotional in any
way or self promotional, Ishould say. And now she's going

(41:32):
through this event, and sheneeds to market it and is
confronting this discomfort.
And it's bringing back all thesememories that I had totally
forgotten about of how hard itwas for me to ever talk about
anything I had made, whether itwas just a blog post or a new
product or something like thatin a public setting. And it's
interesting looking back just onhow far I've come because I
unlike you, I am very much anintrovert, even more like the

(41:54):
person who wants to stay in theroom at the conference, would
never have gotten up on thetable. But it's interesting that
over time, there is this hugeinitial hurdle in that if you
can get over that in the firstplace, it becomes easier and you
start to build the skill. Andthis is both for, like, putting
yourself out there and promotingyour work. But I think it's also
for me, I I've noticed a hugeshift when I look back at about

(42:16):
making assertions and expressingmy opinion on something and
saying, like, I don't have anyproof to back this up, but this
is how it feels to me.
And I can make a compellingargument as to why we should be
thinking about this topic thisway. I think I used to always
hide behind, well, I don't havethe data. I don't have the
research. May maybe somebodyelse knows something that I
don't. And I think that this is,again, one of those things that
when you're in a space a longtime, you realize, well, nobody

(42:38):
has made a compellingcounterargument to my thinking
here.
And so, like, maybe it doesn'texist. And that is something
that I think too, a lot ofsuccessful creators get over
that initial hump, and theybuild this confidence in
themselves and their opinion andthe efficacy of their lived
experience that they're like,this means something, that it
doesn't need to be quote,unquote true. I don't have to

(43:00):
have proof of this, but I havelived this. This is how I've
interpreted these events. Thisis how I can make a compelling
case or argument around this.
Maybe people would agree withit. Maybe people will disagree.
Maybe some of those people whodisagree will actually start an
interesting conversation thatwill improve my thinking on it.

Justin (43:15):
Mhmm.

Jeremy (43:15):
And so so many people get stuck at that first hurdle,
and they never get over that orthey do it really neatly, and
they have a negative experienceor they hear crickets, and so
they never do it more fully. Butif you can get over that and you
can start to actually build somemomentum around it, I think
that's where so many of the winsdown the line come. And I think
we look down on self promotionbecause we see poor versions of

(43:37):
self promotion. I always saythis, like, related to
marketing. A lot of us havenegative internalized beliefs
about marketing because when wethink of marketing, we think of
used car salesman and, like,personal injury lawyers and,
like, the loudest worstmarketing.
It's like so obvious that thisis quote unquote marketing, but
the good marketing, the stuffthat actually gets us to buy is
like subtle and we don't evenrecognize it's there and it

(44:00):
feels, you know, resonant withus. We relate to it. It's
emotional in some way. And youthink about like, I mean, look
at Ted Lasso. This is marketingfor Apple, and it's a show that
is beloved by many people.
Yeah. And you look at all theshows that are on Apple. Like,
this is a form of marketing thatwe can appreciate as consumers,
and we may or may not be awarethat we're being marketed to,
but it's that's kind of whatwe're doing with our podcast and

(44:20):
creative work as well, iscreating something that's
beneficial to people thatthey're going to enjoy. They
want us to tell them about itbecause it will make their life
better. And when you start tothink about it that way, I think
there almost becomes more of anobligation to say like, hey.
I made this, and I think youwould benefit from this. And no
pressure, but it's here if youwant it.

Justin (44:38):
Yeah. And I I think what turns some people off in this is
there is a psychopathic versionof this where

Jeremy (44:43):
Mhmm.

Justin (44:43):
There are some people that just have no filter. The
salesperson that can just like

Jeremy (44:50):
Yeah.

Justin (44:51):
Keep driving forward even though all the signals
they're getting back are like,this is uncomfortable or this is
not right or whatever. I kind ofthink about it in terms of a
couple dimensions. One, I'mtrying to tell my kids and and
have my kids make risks thathave maximum benefit for
yourself and for others, butminimum risk of injury,

(45:15):
basically. So, Yeah. There's abig difference between you
gradually bootstrapping abusiness on the side, and
remortgaging your house, andmaking a big bet on something
that might really not work out.
Minimizing personal risk orinjury and maximizing the

(45:37):
potential benefit for yourselfand for others. That's one
dimension. And then the otherdimension is you want to push
yourself out of your comfortzone. And that is going to
expose you to maybe people won'tlike you. Most of the time,
people just ignore you.

Jeremy (45:56):
Yeah.

Justin (45:56):
And what you are trying to do is push yourself to do
those things more often. And asyou get in motion taking these
little risks and puttingyourself out there, there is
this benefit to it. Because yourealize most of the time, people
don't care. Like most of thetime, you just don't hear
anything from people. They justignore it or whatever.

(46:16):
And to be able willing to get upon a table 10 times and to have
like eight or nine of thosetimes maybe not work out in a
way that was emotionallyedifying is kind of the skill.
Eventually, you do just getbetter at it. Like you're able
to put yourself in a frame ofmind, which is like, it's the

(46:36):
first night of podcast movementconference. There's a mixer, and
I'm gonna go and shake somehands of people I don't know.
I'm gonna like Yeah.
Be around with my drink andbeing like trying to find a
circle to get into. And I'mgonna take like five risks. Hey,
guys. You know? And realize thatfour out of five times, I might

(46:59):
get ignored.
And then maybe on the fifth,you're able to connect with some
people. That's the goal.

Jeremy (47:04):
Yeah. Yeah. There's actually a couple other ideas
related to the comfort zone thatare are interesting. And the
first, I heard a friend talkabout it this way where it's
kind of like you have a log firein the middle of the forest. And
so you're kinda like sittingaround that.
The light only goes so far out,but you're running out of wood,
and maybe you'd like to build abigger fire. So you gotta kinda
like venture out that circle oflight outside of that, expand

(47:26):
your comfort zone a little, gofind some wood, and you bring it
back, you put on the fire. Andnow you've ventured outside,
nothing bad happened. Youbrought back the wood. The ring
of light is now a little bitwider.
And so you've kind of expandedyour comfort zone by venturing
outside of it. And the more youdo that, you actually become
much more competent and muchmore comfortable with anything
that can get thrown at you overtime.

Justin (47:44):
Yeah.

Jeremy (47:44):
And so I think that that's, you know, part of this
expanding your comfort zone. Butthere's a lot of advice you hear
about, like, do you build upyour weaknesses or do you double
down on your strengths? Andthere was a conference that I
was at many years ago now, WorldDomination Summit, and there was
a speaker. His name was OzanVarol. I think it's a Turkish
name.
And he wrote a book calledAwaken Your Genius, and his talk

(48:06):
was on this idea of genius. Andhe had this quote that has just
stuck with me for years now. Itwas something like, a genius is
he who is most himself. And thatjust, like, struck a chord with
me where sometimes we wanna getoutside of our comfort zone in
ways that it holds us back.People who are not successful
are trying to emulate somebodyelse in a way that, like, is

(48:26):
never going to work for them.
And I think that when you lookat the truly exceptional
creators, I think of somebodylike Tim Urban. Like, nobody can
emulate him. He is a one andonly, like, maybe the biggest
blog in the world for a longtime. You look at Tim Ferriss,
so many people have emulatedhim, but you can't. Like, he is
truly in alignment with himself.
He is doing this because this iswhat he wants to do, and it is

(48:48):
not trying to do something thatis successful or emulating
someone else. And this issomething that I've certainly
felt that sometimes you needsomebody else to reflect back to
you. What is it about you that'sinteresting or that you do well?
And I've had this a number oftimes where somebody unlocks
something for me andspecifically with creative work
where I'm like, oh, I do do dothat. My brain does work in that

(49:08):
way.
And as I've gotten those nudges,I've started to embrace those
things more and kind of go morenaturally with my own, like,
mental and creative rhythms. Andit's like, oh, the work gets
better. It gets easier for me tocreate. It resonates more with
other people because it's, like,no longer a filtered signal
coming through. It's like pureJeremy.
I'm not like trying to it's onlylike 60% me and then, you know,
40% trying to be someone else.And that's not to say we don't

(49:30):
take inspiration from otherpeople as well. But I think that
when you have been in a spacefor a long time, you understand
how it works. You know the craftof creating good content. It's
like, actually, you want to leaninward and go into more of that
spark inside you and think like,what what am I drawn to create?

Justin (49:45):
Yeah. Any creator you think of has this
characteristic. It's like SethGodin, he is himself. Oprah, she
is herself. Conan O'Brien, likeYeah.
Completely himself in a way thatwas different than David
Letterman, that was differentthan Jay Leno. These people that

(50:05):
embody the spirit of, wow, theyare really themselves and it's
noticeable. Malcolm Gladwell.Like, we can keep thinking of
creators that kind of embody thespirit. Some of this, I think,
does need to get reflected backto us.
This is why having friends andfamily and a partner who is able

(50:26):
to reflect because often wedon't see this in ourselves.
Yep. And even just going totherapy can help with this.
Like, in asking this question,like, you can go into a therapy
session and say, listen, I'mjust trying to figure out where
am I most myself? Like, can youhelp me figure that out?
And therapists are oftenequipped to do this. And they
can start to give you images andmental photographs that you can

(50:51):
go, man, that that is when I ammost myself. When I'm in that
mode, you know. For most of mylife, I was incredibly shy. And
it took me a while to figure outthat I was shy, but that I had
this natural desire to beoutgoing and to be performing

(51:15):
for an audience.
And realizing that, like, it waslike, oh, my shyness is not
actually a characteristic thatfeels like me. I need to
overcome that because I need tobe this person that I feel like
And sometimes it's just like theperson you desire to be. You
might not even be that yet.Again, back to that ten year

(51:37):
perspective, which is like,okay, how am I going to get
there? What's holding me back?
Well, now, my shyness is holdingme back. And this is a process.
It's going to involve your ownself reflection. It's going to
involve, like we said, mirroringfrom other people, other people
noticing things about you.That's a great gift when people

(51:58):
can accurately observe somethingin you that really is your zone
of genius.

Jeremy (52:04):
It makes me think there's almost there's these two
sides that I see. People whohave are able to get exceptional
results. There is this kind of,like, narcissistic, arrogant,
oblivious kind of person who canjust bulldoze their way in and
shamelessly talk about theirstuff. And to some people, there
is something that can beattractive about that. I think
it it can work for some people.

(52:25):
But then I think there's theopposite side where the other
types of creators who I know whoare successful are extremely
self aware

Justin (52:32):
Mhmm.

Jeremy (52:32):
And self reflective. And there's this example of I wish I
could remember the LinkedInpost. Caitlin Borgoyne had
posted something about, like, AIslop and, like, spammy LinkedIn
comments. And then our friendJay Klaus, he had the perfect,
like, kind of semi trollingtweet that was, like, the exact
basic slop LinkedIn post, but heposted it. And I was like, this

(52:55):
is perfect.
And it's perfect because Jayunderstands who he is and how he
is perceived by thisenvironment. Mhmm. And he knows
who is looking at this, and healso knows his reputation. And
he is so aware of, like, how hefits into this. And I think that
this is an important part ofunderstanding your zone of
genius, what you can do reallywell, but also understanding how
it fits into the environment.

(53:16):
You can't have one without theother. And so part of this is
kinda being able to read theroom. And so this is kind of
what the narcissists do not havethe ability to do. They're just
like going ahead, me, me, me.It's the the Jeremy and Justin
show, you know, regardless ofwhat anybody else cares about.
Yeah. But then there's the otherpeople who understand, like,
what they can bring to thespace, the mood of the space
right now, and how they can fitinto that with their kind of

(53:37):
unique genius. And I think thatthose are the people who are
much more broadly represented inthe creative space. But I think
there is this, like, needing toconstantly be thinking about,
like, yourself and your craftand your work and, like, the
world and all of these things,this kind of, like,
philosophical view almost of allof it and trying to think, like,
how does this all fit togetherhere? What am I doing here?
Why why does this resonate now?What will resonate now? Why is

(54:00):
this other person's thingresonating now? And trying to,
like, pick it apart forthemselves rather than relying
on other people to tell them,hey. This tactic is working now.
You should do this. They're justtrying to figure it out for
themselves and make sense of it,and that then translates through
the work into something thatoften does.

Justin (54:16):
And along with that, I think having this view that
listen. There's a lot of otherpeople out there that I could
get jealous about or that coulddistract me, or I could wonder
how come the luck keeps going tothem and not to me. And I had
this blog post that I wrote along time ago just called focus
on your own shit. Focus on yourown journey. Okay.

(54:38):
I'm in year one of my ten yearjourney. That's all that
matters. And the crazy thingabout getting older is that you
can start to look back ondecades. And you can see all
these people that you're like,man, I wish I could be more like
them. And I wish I had theircharacters.
I wish I wasn't me. You know,wish I could be just more like

(54:59):
that person. And then you justrealize like, oh man, I'm so
glad I wasn't that person, youknow, in a ten year process. Is
it the Roots that plays forJimmy Fallon? Questlove.
I just saw an interview with himwhere he said, you know, like,
when Lauryn Hill's album wasblowing up, they were like,

(55:20):
what? Like when are we going toget our shot? And then Outkast
had their big album the nextyear. But his comment afterwards
was like, but you know what? IfI look back, I wouldn't want to
be anyone else except for us onour journey.
And to be where we are at, wherethat all culminated. Like, I
wouldn't trade places with anyof those folks. You know, like

(55:41):
Lauryn Hill had all those likefinancial problems and all. It's
like he was just like soappreciative of his journey. And
I think this is what we need tobe doing too.
It's just like, I'm on myjourney. I'm trying to
accomplish this. I'm not tryingto accomplish Tim Ferriss fame.
I'm working on my craft. I wantto have a good life.

(56:03):
I want to make good work. I wantto make a living. I want to
connect with interesting people.Like you define your own values
and what you're after. And thenyou just get to be on your own
journey, one step in front ofthe other every single day.
And there's something about thatthat I think can be so healthy
for us. You know, I've realizedthat my career has just had a

(56:29):
lot of line drives. I'm a linedrive kind of guy. I don't hit
very many home runs in terms ofBut you add up all those line
drives and all those base hits.I just I score a lot of points.
Because I'm just always gettingon base. Nothing dramatic.
Nothing crazy. Just workingaround the bases. Run from first
to second, second to third,third to home.

(56:50):
And I'm just trying to scoreruns that way. And maybe one day
I'll get a big home run. Andmaybe that home run will
actually end up being the worstthing that ever happened to me.
Right? So I'm just thankful tobe a base hitter.
I think if you can have thatattitude, I think it'll be
helpful for you as you embark onthis creative journey, this ten

(57:13):
year project.

Jeremy (57:14):
And, you know, this gets back to Brandon Sanderson. And
when he was writing these books,him and his wife were making,
like, $20 a year. Like, theywere scraping by. She was
supporting him in his writing.And he had already made the
decision that he was okay, thathe was just a writer.
He said, I am going to writebooks. This is my life's
vocation. I am totally aware andaccepting that this I may never

(57:37):
get paid for this. I may neversell a book, but I'm gonna write
15 books, 30 books, 50 books,because this is just what I do.
Mhmm.
And so he was already at peacewith the outcome. He was not
doing it to get an outcome. Hewas saying, this is what makes
me happy in life. I would loveto make a career as a writer.
And if it doesn't happen, I knowthe odds are against me, and
that's okay.
You know, going back to thisidea, one in 20 talented,

(58:00):
dedicated people who puteverything they have into the
craft for ten years are gonnamake a living at it. You have to
kind of be okay with it notworking out because the odds are
against you. And I think thatthere is clearly survivorship
bias here where there arecountless people who were
themselves, who did all thesethings, and who did not succeed.
But I think it's hard to achievethat exceptional breakthrough

(58:21):
status without doing thesethings. It's harder to achieve
that kind of success by tryingto emulate somebody else.
It's like the people who dobreakthrough, those are the ones
who do all the right things andget lucky, and they increase
their surface area of luck. Andso I think that to me, that just
goes back to this idea of, like,I wanna enjoy what I do every
day. I don't care if any oneproject is successful. It's like

(58:43):
I want to have a craft that Icare about, whether that's
writing or podcasting orbuilding products or, you know,
marketing or whatever it is, andprobably a bunch of other
interests in life. And it'slike, if I can be satisfied with
never having a big hit, I thinkkind of very similar to you,
it's like, hey, life will havebeen worth living regardless.
And so I think that that is thefirst mindset to take with all

(59:03):
creative work is like, I'm doingit because I want to do it. And
anything that comes out of it, Imight have hopes and aspirations
and dreams, but that's like thecherry on top. And I'm gonna
give it everything that I have,but I'm still gonna be satisfied
and happy and fulfilled if itdoesn't work out.

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}The Real Odds of Succeeding as a Podcaster (& How to Beat Them) | Podcast Strategy