September 4, 2025 • 38 mins
Welcome to another insightful episode of The Private Equity Experience podcast! In this episode, Emily Sander, Ed Barton, and Rory Liebhart dive into the controversial question: Is private equity too big to fail? As they discuss the parallels between the banking industry's "too big to fail" concept and private equity's massive influence, they explore the implications for investors, companies, and the broader economy.
Key Topics Covered:
- What does "too big to fail" mean for private equity?
- The role of private equity in the economy and employment.
- Historical precedents and lessons from past financial crises.
- Potential triggers for a private equity crisis.
- The intersection of politics, public perception, and private equity.
- Future outlook and actionable insights for investors and stakeholders.
Is Private Equity Too Big To Fail?
The discussion examines whether private equity firms have reached a stage where their failure could trigger a broader economic crisis, similar to the financial norms observed during the 2008 financial crisis.
Historical Context:
Exploration of historical events from the 2008 financial crisis to the recent banking troubles at SVB, providing context for our "too big to fail" discussion.
Interconnections and Stakeholders:
Conversation about private equity’s interconnection with pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and the economy, shaping perceptions and potential government responses during crises.
Risk Management and Disruptions:
Analysis of how private equity navigated the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19, focusing on liquidity and risk premium adjustments.
Potential PE Crises:
Discussion on what might trigger a private equity crisis, touching on the sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and broader macroeconomic shocks.
Optical Challenges and Perception:
The hosts delve into the public and political perception of private equity, touching on its respective public image among sectors such as banking.
Highlights:
Economic Interconnections:
Discuss how private equity, including the PE-backed companies, can influence and be influenced by broader economic downturns.
Join Emily, Ed, and Rory as they delve into the nuances of private equity's resilience and its potential vulnerabilities, all while embracing the excitement of the upcoming football season!
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Who Are We?
Three insiders. One mic. All things private equity — explained. Hi 👋 We’re Ed, Rory, and Emily — a CEO, a CFO, and a Chief of Staff — here to demystify the world of private equity. Between us, we’ve sat in the founder’s chair, run PE‑backed companies, and worked on the deal side, so we know the wins, the pitfalls, and the jargon (and we’ll explain it).
Through the Private Equity Experience Podcast, our book On‑Ramp to Exit, and a library of free tools and templates, we share real‑world stories, practical strategies, and insider insights to help you navigate every stage of the PE journey — whether you’re leading a portfolio company, joining a deal team, considering PE, or just PE‑curious.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (00:34):
We should do some witty banter at
the beginning.
Um,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (00:38):
Well, you normally start with the the
difficult question
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (00:41):
I know, I know I usually start
with the opening question, but,uh, I had back to back to back
to back to back meetings allday.
So we're gonna roll with, it's,it's early August, let's say.
I'm excited and like absolutelythrilled that football season is
upon us.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (00:57):
it
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (00:57):
That makes me a very, very happy
person.
Like just to give you this wholelike seasonal lifecycle, you
know how people have sad or likeseasonal affective disorder when
the days get darker.
Okay, so there's like Christmas,new Year's, my birthday's in
January, and then I take avacation to Hawaii every
(01:18):
February and the Super Bowls inFebruary.
After Super Bowl in February, Ihave like
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (01:23):
Oh.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (01:24):
a FD.
After football disorder.
I have like, I am like a mildlydepressed afterward and when the
days start to get shorter onJune 21st, which is the longest
day of the year.
I get a little sad about thedays getting shorter, but I'm
happy because we're almost thefootball season.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2025 (01:41):
a little taste of that dopamine
with the training caps going onand all
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (01:44):
Yes.
OTAs have started.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (01:46):
Yeah,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (01:47):
Yeah, barn's, the new quarterback for
the Seahawks.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (01:49):
there with the draft and
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (01:50):
Whoa.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (01:51):
you know,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (01:51):
Oh, the draft is amazing.
We have preseason starting nextThursday.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (01:55):
Yeah,
emily-sander_1_07-31- (01:55):
Preseason games for the NFL start this
weekend.
Oh my gosh.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (02:00):
No, I'm,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (02:00):
Oh my gosh.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (02:01):
I'm a college football guy.
Um,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (02:03):
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (02:03):
and that just, kind of runs my life
in the fall, to be honest withyou.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:08):
I used to be more college football
until the NIL made it into likefree agency every year.
And now I, again, I'm a NotreDame grad, so I generally, I had
a, there was a, it was a goodseason last year.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (02:21):
yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:22):
you know, it was one of those, every
year they go sign a newquarterback and, you know,
they're, you know, so it's,it's, college football has
changed enough.
I,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (02:29):
It
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:30):
I definitely am now more of a
Seahawks person than
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (02:33):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:34):
than a college.
And, and I'm excited because Ilike the fact that they've gone
to Clin.
Kubiak is a offensivecoordinator and they're gonna be
running like uh, 22.
you know, so you're gonna havetwo tight ends.
Two, two running backs.
You got a fullback.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (02:53):
Smash mouth.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (02:54):
We drafted a fallback.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (02:56):
Yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (02:56):
at this point.
Yeah.
Which is good.
It's a good place to
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:59):
I was,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (02:59):
you could
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:59):
if you wanna make the playoffs
every year, and Raven
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (03:01):
year.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15 (03:03):
Football
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (03:03):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (03:04):
in the central.
So I mean,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (03:06):
Okay,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (03:06):
behind the, the Seahawks, the Ravens
are my favorite team.
They always have been.
Yeah.
I,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (03:11):
this is, this is before pre-season
starts.
Predictions for the Seahawks.
I'm gonna go,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (03:18):
hmm.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (03:19):
they go like they win 10 to 12 games,
make it to the playoffs bywinning the division and then
lose in their first or secondplayoff game.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (03:29):
Hmm.
So they make it to like thedivisional round.
You think Pass the
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (03:33):
Yes.
Which I think
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (03:34):
the
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (03:35):
good.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (03:35):
in that game
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (03:36):
Yeah.
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (03:36):
if they, they either, they, either
they win their divisional gameor they're, you know,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (03:41):
A wild card.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (03:41):
to the champion NFC or the NFC
championship or they're out.
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (03:46):
Yeah, I, the I, you guys know me well,
so I don't bet.
Ever
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (03:52):
Me
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (03:53):
until this year.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (03:55):
Oh,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (03:55):
the first time I got on drafts, when
they
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (03:58):
no.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (03:59):
the Seahawks over under on wins was
seven and half.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (04:02):
You hit, you hit the over
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:04):
And I was like, was like, I'm
putting three hun down on thisone for the over
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2025 (04:09):
I mean that's
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:09):
and
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (04:10):
like buying another car.
300.
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:12):
it is for me.
Yeah, that's, that'll fund atire, another vehicle.
And then.
They had like, will the Seahawksmake the playoffs?
And I said, yes.
So there's another three, hun.
I was like, look, I, to me thisis like, that one's a little bit
more speculative,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (04:26):
Hmm.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (04:26):
going with a, I'm going with a to 11
win wild card.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (04:32):
Yep.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (04:32):
think
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (04:32):
Okay.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:33):
I actually think the, the Rams
have one last.
last, uh, shot at the, at the,the division.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (04:41):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:42):
I think we make the wild card and
I think we win our first wildcard game and lose in the next
round.
Um,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (04:49):
I'd take that on a parley.
If I were a batting man, I'dlink those together and probably
see what I could get.
Yeah, like that's good.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (04:55):
Wait.
So Ed someone somewhere thinksthe Seahawks won't win seven
games,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (05:00):
won't win eight games.
They, they
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (05:01):
won't win eight games.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:03):
Yep.
That was Vegas.
came out like mid, right afterthe draft.
And, and I was like, I was like,how do I do sports betting?
This is ridiculous.
That's,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (05:14):
is stupid.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:15):
I'm like, I would've taken, I, I
would've really struggled withthat last year.
'cause I'm like,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (05:19):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:20):
new head coach.
You got, you know, but I'm like,all looking at like, the DK
Metcalf left and Tyler Lockettleft,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (05:27):
More trouble than he's worth.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (05:28):
like, I was like, Smith, the, the Sam
Donald's a wash.
I think it's, I think they'reabout the same.
And I'm like, DK Metcalf's aunique talent that never was
able to put it all together andthen was always good for a
personal foul or anunsportsmanlike
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (05:45):
many unnecessary penalties, more
trouble than he's
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:48):
and then lock it is, I, I'm like,
you go lock it to Cooper Cup andI'm like, I, me it's a, that's a
wash.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (05:55):
and in Jake and Jake.
Good.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (05:57):
And as the defense
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (05:58):
Yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2025 (05:59):
I mean,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:59):
he's the same as last year.
And, and I'm like, and then youhad, and I know Rory, you're a
big college football guy, butyou know, fricking it just
didn't work.
It just didn't work with RyanGrub.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07 (06:10):
surprised by that.
Honestly, the guy
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (06:11):
So was I.
But I'm like, okay, now we'regoing to 22 baby, we're gonna
run like K nine behind afullback.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07- (06:18):
Exactly.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (06:19):
then you've got, and then you've got,
you know, blocking tight endsand this other stuff.
I'm like, this is, this could,this could go.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (06:26):
yeah.
No doubt.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (06:28):
We shall see.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (06:29):
cool
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (06:29):
We shall see.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_ (06:30):
Absolutely.
And it's here.
It's
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (06:31):
We're gonna, we'll do some check-ins
here as we go along the season.
Um, let me like watch thissegue.
Here we go.
So the Seahawks might not be toobig to fail, but is private
equity too big to fail?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (06:44):
Hmm.
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (06:45):
That's our, that's our question for the
day.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (06:46):
cases to be made for that.
Yeah.
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (06:50):
I mean, where have we heard this
term before?
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15 (06:53):
Banking.
Yeah.
Bank, I mean, the, the last, thelast time we went through the,
the financial crisis was, youknow, back in the oh 8, 0 9 and
you had the too big to fail andthen it kind of bubbled up again
when you had SVB kind
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (07:09):
Oh.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (07:10):
at the verge of and, and.
The Fed came in and basicallysaid, and the, and the Treasury
came in and said, no, we're notgonna let them fail.
We're gonna orchestrate the saleof those banks.
And, you know, and we talkedabout that, I think last pod
before, you know, the s.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (07:24):
the sale or take a direct e equity
investment in it, or, you know,put together like bad asset
facilities and stuff, which alot of that stuff could easily
be applicable to private equity,private credit, you know, all of
that stuff.
The point is, there's 13trillion of assets under
management in these theseinstitutions now.
So I would make the case thatthey're pretty critical to the,
(07:46):
you know, money movement andoverall, uh, kind of fueling of
the economy.
I think one in 10 out there is,uh, is working for a company
that's private equity backed,which tracks to me for sure.
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (07:57):
What's the tip?
What, what makes something toobig to fail?
Or what's the tipping pointwhere it's like, Hey, this is a
thing in the market, but it'snot too big to fail now.
Oh, we gotta save it.
We gotta bail it out.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (08:07):
I,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (08:07):
so it's really, it's a, that's a
political question.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (08:10):
was just gonna
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (08:11):
With a political answer.
So it's how many workers orworkers or depositors are gonna
get impacted by the failure.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (08:19):
Ah,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (08:19):
when you go back to, and I'll, and
I'll go to the classic and Royalwill appreciate this'cause he is
a bankruptcy guy.
So I go back to 2008 financialcrisis and the automakers
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (08:30):
yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (08:31):
now Ford, God bless him, had gone
out prior to the financialcrisis, raised capital.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (08:36):
that's
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (08:36):
Just, I, it was almost dumb luck from
my perspective,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (08:40):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_1512 (08:40):
raised capital so they didn't have to
go through the federalgovernment thing, but the two
big automakers, so and, and, uh,GM basically had to file for
bankruptcy.
Well, they were too big to fail,so the government bailed them
out, but they bailed them out bybasically going get her file
bankruptcy.
But.
We're gonna reorder.
(09:00):
In order to do that, you'regotta follow our rules, which
are, because you're gonna layoff too many folks and it's
gonna screw up the pensionplans, and it's gonna screw up
the unions.
And so you're gonna have tohonor your union pension
contracts.
Even though those should nothave been honored in the
bankruptcy, they should havegone to erisa.
You're gonna have to keepcertain levels of employment,
even though normally youwouldn't.
You're gonna have to keepcertain plants open and you're
(09:22):
gonna have to shutter others.
You're gonna have to do, and soI Too big to fail is really like
a, and so they up, theyoverturned.
What would be the normalbankruptcy preference process?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (09:33):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (09:33):
order for pay for payment, in order
to, so they wiped out bondholders.
They wiped out secured creditorsand they kept unsecured
creditors in.
And, but it depended on who itwas.
And I think private equity's inthe same boat where you've got,
like Rory said, one out of every10 employees works for private
equity backed business.
That's a lot of votes.
And so I think it's one of thosewhere, you know, the, the issue
(09:54):
on private equity being too bigto fail is really.
Is the private equity is a waythat they've structured their
portfolio companies such thatthey cannot withstand kind of an
economic crisis.
'cause they have too muchleverage, they've got too much
in the way of covenants, whichthen cascades down to the banks.
So now you have private equityhas created the failure because
(10:16):
of how they've financiallyengineered the
emily-sander_1_07-31-20 (10:18):
They're so intertwined with the banks.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (10:20):
It's so intertwined with a bank's
private credit and, and one outof every 10 employees.
That there's an opportunity thatthe government will not let
private equity.
Now, they might take the, youknow, the, the equity general
partners.
Those guys are gonna pay theprice.
But the limited partners who arepension funds and college
(10:41):
endowments and state, you know,state pensions, they'll probably
be, we're gonna help take careof you.
The employees.
We're not gonna let y'all getoutta work.
And the banks, you know, theycan't let the banks fail.
So I think it's, the GP will getexposed.
Everybody else is, there's a lotof political capital there that
they're not gonna want to.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (11:00):
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (11:00):
but.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (11:01):
that too.
what, what's different now thatwe've seen, you know, going even
more recently to five years agowhere the government had stepped
in with stimuli of some sort islike, there seems to be a move
more towards directly, you know,supporting the consumer and
letting the, you know,surrounding.
and things like that, you know,wither and stuff, maybe a little
(11:23):
bit differently than, you know,basically propping up banks and
businesses in the past.
That being said, private equityis a, just a overall, um, kind
of industry.
it's, it's, there are many,many, many firms out there, so I
don't think it'd be a uniformthing.
We, you know, every privateequity group would be too big to
fail or, you know, But therewould be some, you know, it, it,
(11:47):
there, there would be some thatwould be left to die.
There would be some that wouldprobably be supported, you know,
like the Blackstones of theworld and you know, uh, you
know, Apollo and some of thebiggest ones out there.
I think there's probably a caseto be made that there's some
major institutional risk ifsomething like that tanked.
But, but not sort of middlemarket perhaps, you know?
(12:09):
So
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (12:10):
Well.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (12:11):
not so black and white, I guess in
that respect.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (12:13):
Well, you said major institutional
risk, and I'm wondering like.
There, is there a thresholdwhere this thing is so
intertwined?
This thing has so many workersinvolved or so many downstream
impacts that it, it just reachesa tipping point and then there's
maybe a question of how do we doit?
(12:34):
What conditions do we put onthis thing?
All these different, maybepolitical aspects, but is there
just a fundamental, this thingis so entrenched and
foundational now that we can'tnot do anything.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (12:46):
Hmm.
Some of it really does come downto the sector coverage.
I mean, I think there's probablysome pretty big private equity
funds out there.
Even even ones where Ed and Ihave like worked for their
operating companies that are,you know, basically.
Buy distressed businesses and,you know, distressed assets.
I don't think that that'snecessarily what the kind of
(13:08):
business, you know, PE groupwould be to prop up.
But it's, you know, others thatare exposed to, you know, uh,
manufacturing and, and othersort of, you know, kind of, uh,
healthcare, things like that.
I think it, it, it's not gonnabe a blanket approach, um, any
stretch.
And I think there, there has tobe a.
(13:28):
Probably a careful view as to,you know, what constitutes, you
know, uh, risk as we say.
You know, um, what does it meanif, if you let a big PE fail,
like you're going to, you'regonna affect a lot of pension
funds and endowments and otherLP institutions, but, um, but
maybe that's, maybe that's not,uh.
(13:52):
Maybe that's contained to sortof domestic LPs do, I mean, I'll
just put it out there.
Does, does the US care whether,know, a sovereign wealth fund
from the Middle East suffers thefate?
I don't know.
This is hypothetical, but theseare things that come to mind
when I think about how do youparse through, who you let you
know kind of stay, and who youlet die.
emily-sander_1_07-31-20 (14:15):
There's also, I mean, you mentioned
political, there's just opticsand sentiment where when the
automakers were in trouble andObama went in and saved them,
but also put these conditionsaround, you know, uh, emissions
and ev and all this stuff, therewas a sentiment of it.
You can't let Ford just die.
That's, that's not
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (14:36):
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (14:37):
okay.
That's not American.
Is there a sense of, you know,there's a different, uh, tone
when it comes to PE versus someof these other.
Industries, is there optics toit?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (14:48):
Well, I would argue they're definitely
not in the same, you know,political view as Ford per se,
right?
Like that's institution.
Uh, I think, I think there's aperception of private equity out
there that there, you know,it's, it's, it's not, it's, it's
a, it's opportunistic and, youknow, uh, you know, basically,
(15:10):
you know.
Can be harmful as much asanything in some ways for
vis-a-vis those otherinstitutions like banks and
stuff, you know, and, and othertra more traditionally viewed
sources of funding, call it.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (15:24):
Yeah, I think as Rory noted, the there
is a real dynamic of theperception of of the private
equity.
Again, the GP is gonna be theone that's vilified.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (15:37):
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (15:37):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (15:38):
when, when things are going bad,
politicians like to be able topoint to somebody or something
and go, it's your fault.
It's not my fault.
Even though I structured a bunchof things that made this as an
incentive for you.
Um, but it's not my fault.
It's your fault gp.
And therefore you're gonna endup with, you know, kind of
getting the, getting the hit.
(15:59):
And, you know, to your point,Emily, the, the, you know, it
was sad, it was sad for a carguy like me to see Pontiac die.
I mean, that was, and that wasrequired by the government.
The government said, Pontiac,you're dead.
Saturn, you're dead.
Sob.
You're dead.
Now, sob, less, less of aconcern for me, but the, know,
(16:19):
but they basically killed up,like with gm, they basically
said, you're gonna, they had aspecial working group from the
government who was here to helplook at all this stuff and say,
as a condition, you're gonnahave to kill off these
underperforming areas, etcetera, et cetera, et cetera.
But it's General Motors a asRory noted, that's a, that's a,
a icon going back to, you know,Alfred Sloan days and now
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07- (16:43):
industry in a
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (16:44):
Yeah.
And then, and then you go overto, and I think you've run on
the same thing with steel andyou're running into the same,
especially with the currentadministration who's kind of got
a fixation
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (16:51):
gonna say, yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (16:52):
realm manufacturing.
Um, but I don't think you'regonna get that same, you're not
gonna get that same feelingabout BlackRock.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (17:01):
Right, right.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (17:02):
No.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_0 (17:03):
BlackRock, the, the group that, you know,
again, this is fact, you know,buys up tracks of residential
homes and in massive swaths and,you know, is able to sort of
flip that to a pro.
I mean, like there's aperception, I'm not saying it's
correct or not correct.
About private equity that, uh,is, you know, vulture like, uh,
you know, um, uh, it's opticallynot the same thing as, you know,
(17:27):
saving, uh, you know, a, abanking system, for example,
even, you know, bank of Americawhere everyone, you know, goes
to, know, deposit theirpaychecks and, you know, take
out little loans for, you know,automobiles and things like
that, you know, whatever.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (17:43):
It is, it's almost like pe as a, as
a, as a group should hire like,um, like a PR firm to rebrand
themselves or to have a newimage.
'cause then they'll have somedifferent sentiment.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (17:57):
well,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (17:58):
to do that.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (17:59):
Love.
Yes, yes, yes, yes.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (18:01):
You know, maybe if that were the
case, like if Mitt Romneywould've be become president
back in the day, like that couldhave been a thing.
'cause he, he was, he came fromthe private equity space.
One thing that's clear though,you know, is like the whole
foundation of private equity isthat it's not a bank, right?
Like.
banks have been propped up, becabecause they're so close to, um,
(18:21):
you know, our, our, ourgovernment in a lot of ways.
You know, they're highly, highlyregulated.
Just the private equity model isa highly regulated set of
entities.
Would just, wouldn't be the samething.
It would be completelydifferent.
It would be, know, lower yieldand you know, much more, uh.
know, uh, narrow in, in what itcan do and can't do as a, as a
(18:41):
result of having thosegovernmental protections.
That's what the banks give up isbeing able to be competitive
with, you know, groups likeprivate credit, private credit
funds, and, and PE because haveto have a certain level of
capital bank.
Banks have to, you know, adhereto certain regulations that came
out of that financial crisis asa result of having to be propped
(19:02):
up, you know?
So, um, PE would become morebank-like if they were in that
scenario, probably.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (19:07):
How did PE do for the 2008 financial
crisis for COVID?
Like were they resilient or werethey at the edge of.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (19:15):
Well, I would, I would make an
argument.
Certainly the PE group that Roryand I were working with, they
actually helped the governmentin the 2008 financial crisis.
'cause they went
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (19:22):
Ah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (19:23):
to the, to the, like, and, and even
prior, they went to R tc.
They've got, they, they gottheir start like in the RTC
world back in, you know, kind ofbuying up bank assets.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (19:34):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15 (19:34):
they're, you know, the, they, they
provided liquidity for illiquid.
Illiquid elements so that thegovernment could get'em off
their balance sheet.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (19:44):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (19:44):
they made a small fortune, large
fortune
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (19:48):
I am sure they did.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (19:49):
Um, but that was, that was part of
the, that was they privateequity in large part bailed out,
helped bail out the 2008financial crisis for a profit.
Of course, it was not analtruistic thing, but you know,
they provided the liquidity.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (20:05):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (20:06):
The COVID.
I think COVID, we talked aboutthis a lot.
I think COVID actually is gonnaprove to be a disruptor.
The other direction where assetprices went way up.
Um, you know, the, the discountrate came way down and they
ended up overpaying for a bunchof stuff.
And I think there's gonna be akind of a reckoning as to what
(20:28):
the returns are gonna be onthose, on those.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (20:30):
risk premium should have been higher
for sure.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (20:33):
Oh yeah, it should have.
And, and the challenge therewas, you know, when you've got
everybody cha, when you've got alot of liquidity chasing too few
deals, the, the concept, thoseconcepts start going, it becomes
a, a supply and demand thing.
And you move off of yourspreadsheet where you've gone,
okay, what's the beta, what'sthe risk premium?
(20:53):
What's the risk free rate?
And you go, well, the risk freerate's now zero because they.
Or negative'cause they'vebasically cut interest rates
down to nothing.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (21:01):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (21:02):
they try and keep the economy moving
and so, you know, you overpay inthat moment.
But that now that we've got arisk-free rate sitting up at
like 4%, which the Fed chose notto make any changes to interest
rates.
You know that what's changed isthat that risk, that risk return
component has gone up by 4%, andso you're now, now when you're
(21:24):
doing your discount rate, the,the, even if the risk premium
has not changed, so it's, youknow, 4% or 5% over rate, the
risk-free rates changesubstantially.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (21:35):
Yeah, that's right.
and then off offset by that is,of course, you know, the
benefits one got if you'reinvested in the company, uh,
from all the stimulus and, andPPP and all the, all the loans
that were forgiven, uh, youknow, during that time, you
know, like basically.
US Treasury was, uh, an ATMmachine rather than
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151 (21:55):
Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (21:56):
out actual loans that you had to pay
back.
So, yeah, I mean there's, it wasan interesting time for sure.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (22:01):
So you both got in the risk premium
quota.
Ding.
DD ding for the episode.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (22:05):
times.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (22:06):
can you explain like in normal human
language what Ed was just sayingwith like the risk premium and
the 4% and the dah, dah, dah.
Like what does that mean in reallife?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (22:15):
It just means that at a point in
time, the price for assets wasartificially low relative to the
intrinsic value and should havebeen reflected with higher,
higher pricing based on the riskthat is
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (22:29):
Okay.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (22:30):
and come to bear.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (22:32):
Okay.
And is making a face, like, howcould you not have understood
me, but.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (22:37):
I was just sad that I wasn't the
one asked to explain my owndefinition of, because I teach
this.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (22:43):
I, yeah.
Yeah.
I'm, I'm, uh, yeah.
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (22:47):
What Ed meant to say was, um, okay.
Double barrel question for you,what would cause a legitimate PE
crisis, and then what do youthink would happen?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (23:00):
Gosh, that's a wonderful question.
Uh, I think.
A shock to the capital marketswhere, you know, somehow the, if
there's variable interest ratedebt on the books and, and
interest rates moved upmassively in a shock scenario
(23:21):
that you couldn't reallyforecast or hedge for.
Then that would create a problembecause I'd say the biggest
inherent risk with the privateequity business model, as we've
talked about in our book andeven on this podcast, is the use
of leverage.
You know, just lever leverage.
Leverage.
Leverage just means when the,when the, when the, know, when
the merry-go-round stops,somebody's gotta pay the bill,
(23:42):
and if it stops in a place whereyou can't afford to pay the
bill, then there's problems, youknow?
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (23:48):
Yeah, it's, it is gonna be, it's gonna
be a liquidity issue, and thatliquidity is gonna be driven by,
you know, as Rory said, it's ashock to the capital market.
So when you end up with, withdecreased liquidity, so
basically banks aren't willingto loan at certain rates order
to refinance debt.
The interest rates start to goup.
(24:08):
Essentially, it's a supply anddemand issue.
And so if you've got a, ifyou've got a supply of money and
there's a high demand for it.
From a liquidity perspective,that's when interest rates rise.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (24:17):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (24:17):
so that, that becomes, even if they
do have the ability to refinancethe existing debt, the, the
issue will then be one of,they've either gotta go back out
to their limited partners andgo, Hey, I need more money'cause
I've gotta now dele the theseinvestments, so I need to put in
equity, which is gonna impactyour return significantly.
Or I'm refinancing, but I'mrefinancing at a higher interest
(24:40):
rate, which has higher debtservice.
Which is gonna impact theperformance of the underlying
asset.
Now again, most of thesecompanies trade on an EBITDA
multiple, so you don't have tofactor in interest.
So they're gonna, you know,arguably a private equity
sponsor's gonna go, yeah, I'mgonna prefer to do that because
I still get the same ebitda.
But the leverage is still thereand a cashflow is now going out
(25:03):
to the bank.
And if you don't, if you've gota larger financial crisis, your
ability to be able to cover thatdebt service is gonna be
limited.
Because you're likelyexperiencing top line, top line
pressure as well at theportfolio company.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (25:16):
The fact of the matter is that the
private equity is, is probablynever gonna be like the direct
bailout because the system isbased on their borrowing.
So banks effectively, if youwill, and other, other more
regulated sources.
So like is the bailout would beto the banks to, to backstop
(25:37):
what?
what the obligation from pe,when I say pe meaning PE
operating companies and all the,like, there would be a, there
would be a direct bailout moreto the banks than the PE sector
itself.
Now, there may be some, as Edtalked about, you know, some
sort of, um, retribution or not,that's not the right word, but
like there, there would be some.
(25:59):
Some means to go after thegeneral partners in these
businesses to basically try tomake the, the government whole,
if it's gonna ba, you know, bailout the banks that would then
support the private equity, youknow, businesses and stuff.
Um, it, it would just be, Idon't think that I, I just think
it would be somehow, some way,not a direct, Hey, we're gonna,
(26:20):
we're gonna bail out, um, youknow, BC private equity group.
I just don't see that happening.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (26:26):
So you said shock to the system.
So is this an acute, is this adrastic increase in interest
rates and or over a short periodof time, or is what, what
trigger it?
That would trigger it?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (26:38):
Yeah.
And again, I don't know thelikelihood of that something
like that happens.
We're talking in bigTheoreticals Hall here,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (26:43):
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (26:44):
um,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (26:44):
But theoretically that like if that
somehow.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (26:47):
cause that, ed?
What do you think?
Like what would be, what wouldresult in like, just a spike
like that,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (26:52):
I, I think it would be a combination.
Yeah, it would be.
Well, yeah, an invasion ofTaiwan.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (26:58):
That's exactly Good point.
I was gonna say
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (27:01):
so.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (27:02):
Yeah,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (27:03):
Yeah, so an invasion of Taiwan would
probably have a significantspike in in, and then the other
one would be a sovereign debtcrisis like US sovereign debt
crisis where we fail to raise adebt ceiling.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (27:15):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (27:15):
And so now all of a sudden you've,
the risk on the, again,risk-free rate is generally
driven by the US Treasury,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (27:22):
Yes.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (27:22):
by the, by the, in theory it's the
US Treasury bill, 30 daytreasury bill is the, is the
risk-free rate proxy.
And so if the, there's a USsovereign debt crisis, the val,
then the interest rates on thoseare gonna spike.
As a result, you're gonna seethat cascade all the way through
the the system, and that's onethat you know, if it's a debt
(27:46):
ceiling issue, you may not knowuntil the day that vote's taken
whether it actually is increasedor decreased, although the mark
will price in a probability, butit could go opposite of what you
expect.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (27:57):
I'm trying to remember like the last
time that happened to a countryin the world.
I mean, I'm sure it actuallyhappens more than I think and
gets headlines for, but one thatcomes to my mind, many, you
know, maybe like 15 years ago orsomething like that was like
Iceland, where it really like itcompletely, failed in that
regard.
Um, yeah.
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (28:18):
else do people need to know about PE
being too big to fail or not?
I guess we've assumed that.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07- (28:23):
takeaway here is, uh, you know, PE is, is
and I'll throw private credit inthere too, but basically,
sources of financing thataren't, aren't banks and things
like that.
Um, it's just, it's so integralto the economy.
There's so muchinterconnectedness as, I mean,
again, you talk about it fromthe standpoint of assets under
management, meaning, you know,uh, companies that are owned,
(28:45):
which then employ people forwhich, you know, one in 10
people work for private equityback.
It's really integral.
It's, uh, it's not a, not like asmall part of the economy.
It's massive, you know, and it'sglobal too.
So, um, yeah.
So I think anything, um, know,hitting the economy hard is
gonna affect.
You know, private equity just asmuch as it does, you know, any
(29:07):
other or, or source offinancing, basically, banks, et
cetera, they're all tiedtogether.
It's all
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (29:13):
Yeah.
I, I think,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (29:14):
It's like it's all truly tied
together.
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (29:18):
yeah, I think the, the private equity
situation, you know, as, as bestI could analogize it would be,
it is not the gonna be the firstdomino that falls.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07- (29:28):
Correct.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (29:29):
Um, but it's gonna be one of the
dominoes and it's portfolio, soit's not likely to cause the
problem, but it is likely to getimpacted by like where he said,
like, by any macroeconomic issueand a dominoes may be falling
this way or they may be fallingthis way.
And in 2008.
They may have been follow bothdirections.
The private equity was actuallythe domino where stuff fell and
(29:50):
it propped it up on both sides,you know, in the case of some of
the, the toxic assets.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (29:55):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (29:57):
you know, you may, and again, that
was my experience'cause I was inthe financial services sector,
but the other way, you know,it's, it's likely to get
cascaded and because of theleverage and because of the
ownership structure.
They're likely to have amplifieddownstream impacts to the
portfolio.
The portfolio companies arereally what gets impacted,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (30:16):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (30:17):
and that's where your, that and the
limited partners are gonna bethe ones that are impacted most.
And they're also gonna be theones, if there's a bailout, if
there's a too big to fail, it'sgonna be because of pension
funds.
So you got ERISA and thegovernment will pull, will pull
themselves into the processbecause of erisa.
Or it's gonna be because youhave a lot of workers getting
(30:38):
displaced and there's a lot ofleverage, and then they'll
overreact and put a bunch ofregulation in place to
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (30:44):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (30:44):
fix the problem.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (30:46):
It reminds me of those plants that
you see the plant above theground and then there's this
huge interwoven root systemwhere if you try to pull this
thing up, you're pulling up likeyour entire yard and you just
don't see all these connectionsuntil something horrible
happens.
Um, just outta curiosity, isthere a PE firm, I mean I think
of like US-based PE firms, isthere a significant PE firm?
(31:12):
Headquartered in another part ofthe world where if something
happens to that one forgeopolitical reasons or
something else, it'll have a, arebound effect to us, or are we
kind of the center of things andthen it'll go the other
direction?
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (31:26):
Um, no, there's PE firms worldwide.
Um, but I actually think yourgeopolitical impacts are gonna
be more sovereign wealth funds
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (31:34):
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (31:34):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (31:35):
fund to oversee.
So a sovereign wealth fund, youknow, like your, a lot of your
petro states.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (31:40):
Yep.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (31:40):
The Scandinavia countries, they have
sovereign wealth funds, and ifsomething happens there where
they need to get liquid, that's,and that's gonna be an, a
geopolitical impact.
And they've got investmentincluding investment in private
equity that could cascade downthrough, um, cascade through the
system.
So I think it's, you know, you,you have the Saudi.
(32:01):
Sore fund, which is one of thelargest in the world, or may the
largest in the world, andsomething happens in the Middle
East because it's the MiddleEast.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (32:09):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (32:09):
be a.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (32:11):
Big time.
Yep.
emily-sander_1_07-31-20 (32:12):
Gotcha.
How likely do you think this isI.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (32:15):
Hmm.
How, how likely do we think a a,you know, a 2008 level crisis is
at this point in time?
I kind of put it on the samelevel.
I mean, it'd just be a, have tobe a systematic failure.
And I guess I just, never failedto be surprised by stuff.
Happening like that.
I think we watched that
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (32:34):
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-3 (32:35):
unfold, you know, like, um, running into
an iceberg, you know, likepeople could see what was
happening to the averageconsumer being over leveraged,
and, yet, you know, the systemwas still just propagating, you
know, debt.
So, again, I think that commonthread is debt, right?
Like it's, I think these thingsare gonna be, it's all about,
(32:55):
you know, can be sustained as,as far as.
service go, and as soon as thatcollapses, then the whole system
kind of collapses.
You
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (33:04):
Yeah, historically, about every 10 to
15 years, there's a significantcrisis.
As Rory noted, it's normallydriven around debt and the
thought process going into itjust prior to it is this time's
really different because, andit's.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (33:22):
humans are different because,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (33:23):
Yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (33:24):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (33:24):
it was, it was one of, there's some
classic joke that was like assoon as the barber, as soon as
the barber started givinginvestment advice, that's when
like Warren Buffet's, like I'm.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (33:33):
yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (33:34):
yeah.
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (33:35):
that movie.
Oh my gosh.
It's a famous movie where.
It has Jeremy Irons in it and heand like Demi Moore and all
these people.
And there's this famous scenewhere Jeremy Irons is like this
head honcho, hedge fund manageror whatever, and he is eating,
uh, like dinner at a really nicehotel.
And this guy's freaking outlike, aren't you scared that
this big thing is gonna, isgonna happen again?
(33:57):
And he is like, of course itwill.
It's like, what do you meanhumans are humans?
This is gonna happen again.
This whole cycle that everythingeveryone thinks is the most
traumatic thing ever, it'llhappen again.
I'm counting on it and it wasjust like,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (34:08):
but I mean,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (34:10):
oh my gosh.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (34:11):
in life seems to be cyclical in, in
most cases.
You know, NA in nature and allof those things.
So.
maybe that's a human trait.
Uh, I'm
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (34:20):
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (34:20):
but you know, like, yeah, it seems
to be we're old enough now wherewe've been through a few of
these things
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (34:27):
Jesus.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (34:27):
back to it and say.
Wow, this seems like it wasbefore, you know?
Um, it, but yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (34:34):
Yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (34:34):
Um, and I guess humans are a hopeful
species of, of, of beings where,to Ed's point, it's gonna be
different in the future, it'sgonna be different, it's gonna
be different.
With ai, it's, it's all good,you know, like, no worries.
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (34:48):
humans are a hopeful species.
Um, let's round out, what do wehope for, uh, Seahawks preseason
first game against the Las VegasRaiders?
With the new quarterback GinoSmith.
Not quite the official gameopener between Gino Smith and
Russell Wilson.
Remember that one when it openedour season, right when we traded
(35:09):
Russell and then the first gamethey came to.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:12):
It wrote me off, but I didn't write
back.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (35:14):
Oh my gosh.
And at that point I like I was.
Hating Russell Wilson Prettyhard.
I was like, I wanna see you getsacked so many times, bro.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (35:24):
man.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (35:25):
You left in a got too big for your
Britches
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (35:27):
gotta stay
emily-sander_1_07-31 (35:28):
Unlimited.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (35:29):
is
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (35:29):
I'm unlimited.
Who do you think is gonna winour preseason game?
I gotta vote for the hawks.
Come on.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:36):
I, I actually.
I actually think the Raiders aregonna win because
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (35:42):
No.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_1 (35:42):
Carroll's gonna wanna win.
And Mike McDonald, so PeteCarroll's got, Pete Carroll and
Gino Smith have a reason to comein here
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (35:51):
True.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:51):
show that they made a mistake.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (35:52):
True,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:53):
The folks that are here have a
reason to not get injured and
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (35:57):
yes.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:57):
that we kind of play that.
So I think I, I think it's gonnabe the Raiders.
I think Pete Carroll is, he'slike one of the finest coaches
of that.
I've of.
and I've been exposed to anumber of coaches firsthand as
well as, you know, kind of beena, a student of the game for a
long time.
He is one of the classiest,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (36:16):
He is.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025 (36:18):
exceptional coaches.
The only time I didn't like himwas'cause I'm a Notre Dame guy,
was when he was a Southern Cal.
So I was glad he left, um,Southern Cal.
But, you know, I, I would notmind seeing Pete Carroll go
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (36:29):
I,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (36:29):
with a, with a win at the end of the
season or see the hawks and theRaiders in the Super Bowl.
I'd like to see Pete Carrollsuccessful.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (36:36):
cool would that be?
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (36:37):
that would be awesome.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (36:38):
but I, I can't root against the
hawks, but I, I think Vegaspulls this one
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (36:43):
I met Pete Carroll once, did I
tell you that?
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (36:46):
No.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (36:46):
No.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (36:47):
So we were at the, it was actually
during G two and we were at oneof the, our baseball games, like
the work baseball thing, and wewere playing against the.
Like the facilities people ofthe stadium and to support the
facilities people.
Pete Carroll came and justplayed like one inning, and I
like actually tagged him out andhe was like, good ball, good
(37:08):
job.
And he like tapped me on theback and I was like, okay.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (37:11):
Hang.
Wow.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (37:12):
Yeah.
And he was just, he was justdoing that to support his
people.
He played like one inning, hitthe ball, ran and then left, but
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (37:18):
65 at that time
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (37:19):
Oh yeah.
No, he was, I mean he was, youknow,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (37:22):
so impressive.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (37:23):
but I was like.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (37:24):
the only guy I ever met was the one
at, at, it was at G two and itwas Mike Holmgren at the QFC in
Bellevue.
Near
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (37:31):
Oh, no
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (37:31):
the office.
Mike and Kathy Holmgren
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (37:34):
Who is hard to miss?
He's a big man.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (37:36):
dude.
Yeah, he is a big dude.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (37:38):
guy.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (37:38):
he's a large man.
Okay.
All right.
So we're going with, um, theRaiders are gonna win the
preseason game, but the Seahawksare gonna play it safe and
smart, not get injured so we canrock and roll in the official
season.
That's where we're, that's whatwe're landing with.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (37:53):
I think it was Consensus Sea go to
the playoffs with the three ofus.
Right?
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (37:57):
Yep.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (37:57):
Rory
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (37:58):
we go.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (37:59):
No, I was on the, I was on the, I
was on the bandwagon for sure.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I won't
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (38:05):
there.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (38:06):
the, I won't, I won't saddle this
conversation with.
Prognostications on theWashington.
No ski.
So we can, I'll keep that tomyself, but yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (38:13):
We'll do that next time.
We'll do.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (38:17):
Yeah.
See you guys.
Bye-Bye.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15 (38:19):
Doodles.
We should do some witty banter at
the beginning.
Um,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (00:38):
Well, you normally start with the the
difficult question
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (00:41):
I know, I know I usually start
with the opening question, but,uh, I had back to back to back
to back to back meetings allday.
So we're gonna roll with, it's,it's early August, let's say.
I'm excited and like absolutelythrilled that football season is
upon us.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (00:57):
it
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (00:57):
That makes me a very, very happy
person.
Like just to give you this wholelike seasonal lifecycle, you
know how people have sad or likeseasonal affective disorder when
the days get darker.
Okay, so there's like Christmas,new Year's, my birthday's in
January, and then I take avacation to Hawaii every
(01:18):
February and the Super Bowls inFebruary.
After Super Bowl in February, Ihave like
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (01:23):
Oh.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (01:24):
a FD.
After football disorder.
I have like, I am like a mildlydepressed afterward and when the
days start to get shorter onJune 21st, which is the longest
day of the year.
I get a little sad about thedays getting shorter, but I'm
happy because we're almost thefootball season.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2025 (01:41):
a little taste of that dopamine
with the training caps going onand all
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (01:44):
Yes.
OTAs have started.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (01:46):
Yeah,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (01:47):
Yeah, barn's, the new quarterback for
the Seahawks.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (01:49):
there with the draft and
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (01:50):
Whoa.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (01:51):
you know,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (01:51):
Oh, the draft is amazing.
We have preseason starting nextThursday.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (01:55):
Yeah,
emily-sander_1_07-31- (01:55):
Preseason games for the NFL start this
weekend.
Oh my gosh.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (02:00):
No, I'm,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (02:00):
Oh my gosh.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (02:01):
I'm a college football guy.
Um,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (02:03):
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (02:03):
and that just, kind of runs my life
in the fall, to be honest withyou.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:08):
I used to be more college football
until the NIL made it into likefree agency every year.
And now I, again, I'm a NotreDame grad, so I generally, I had
a, there was a, it was a goodseason last year.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (02:21):
yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:22):
you know, it was one of those, every
year they go sign a newquarterback and, you know,
they're, you know, so it's,it's, college football has
changed enough.
I,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (02:29):
It
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:30):
I definitely am now more of a
Seahawks person than
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (02:33):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:34):
than a college.
And, and I'm excited because Ilike the fact that they've gone
to Clin.
Kubiak is a offensivecoordinator and they're gonna be
running like uh, 22.
you know, so you're gonna havetwo tight ends.
Two, two running backs.
You got a fullback.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (02:53):
Smash mouth.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (02:54):
We drafted a fallback.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (02:56):
Yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (02:56):
at this point.
Yeah.
Which is good.
It's a good place to
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:59):
I was,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (02:59):
you could
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (02:59):
if you wanna make the playoffs
every year, and Raven
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (03:01):
year.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15 (03:03):
Football
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (03:03):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (03:04):
in the central.
So I mean,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (03:06):
Okay,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (03:06):
behind the, the Seahawks, the Ravens
are my favorite team.
They always have been.
Yeah.
I,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (03:11):
this is, this is before pre-season
starts.
Predictions for the Seahawks.
I'm gonna go,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (03:18):
hmm.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (03:19):
they go like they win 10 to 12 games,
make it to the playoffs bywinning the division and then
lose in their first or secondplayoff game.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (03:29):
Hmm.
So they make it to like thedivisional round.
You think Pass the
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (03:33):
Yes.
Which I think
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (03:34):
the
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (03:35):
good.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (03:35):
in that game
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (03:36):
Yeah.
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (03:36):
if they, they either, they, either
they win their divisional gameor they're, you know,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (03:41):
A wild card.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (03:41):
to the champion NFC or the NFC
championship or they're out.
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (03:46):
Yeah, I, the I, you guys know me well,
so I don't bet.
Ever
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (03:52):
Me
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (03:53):
until this year.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (03:55):
Oh,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (03:55):
the first time I got on drafts, when
they
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (03:58):
no.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (03:59):
the Seahawks over under on wins was
seven and half.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (04:02):
You hit, you hit the over
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:04):
And I was like, was like, I'm
putting three hun down on thisone for the over
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2025 (04:09):
I mean that's
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:09):
and
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (04:10):
like buying another car.
300.
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:12):
it is for me.
Yeah, that's, that'll fund atire, another vehicle.
And then.
They had like, will the Seahawksmake the playoffs?
And I said, yes.
So there's another three, hun.
I was like, look, I, to me thisis like, that one's a little bit
more speculative,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (04:26):
Hmm.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (04:26):
going with a, I'm going with a to 11
win wild card.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (04:32):
Yep.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (04:32):
think
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (04:32):
Okay.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:33):
I actually think the, the Rams
have one last.
last, uh, shot at the, at the,the division.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (04:41):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (04:42):
I think we make the wild card and
I think we win our first wildcard game and lose in the next
round.
Um,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (04:49):
I'd take that on a parley.
If I were a batting man, I'dlink those together and probably
see what I could get.
Yeah, like that's good.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (04:55):
Wait.
So Ed someone somewhere thinksthe Seahawks won't win seven
games,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (05:00):
won't win eight games.
They, they
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (05:01):
won't win eight games.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:03):
Yep.
That was Vegas.
came out like mid, right afterthe draft.
And, and I was like, I was like,how do I do sports betting?
This is ridiculous.
That's,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (05:14):
is stupid.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:15):
I'm like, I would've taken, I, I
would've really struggled withthat last year.
'cause I'm like,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (05:19):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:20):
new head coach.
You got, you know, but I'm like,all looking at like, the DK
Metcalf left and Tyler Lockettleft,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (05:27):
More trouble than he's worth.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (05:28):
like, I was like, Smith, the, the Sam
Donald's a wash.
I think it's, I think they'reabout the same.
And I'm like, DK Metcalf's aunique talent that never was
able to put it all together andthen was always good for a
personal foul or anunsportsmanlike
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (05:45):
many unnecessary penalties, more
trouble than he's
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:48):
and then lock it is, I, I'm like,
you go lock it to Cooper Cup andI'm like, I, me it's a, that's a
wash.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (05:55):
and in Jake and Jake.
Good.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (05:57):
And as the defense
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (05:58):
Yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2025 (05:59):
I mean,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (05:59):
he's the same as last year.
And, and I'm like, and then youhad, and I know Rory, you're a
big college football guy, butyou know, fricking it just
didn't work.
It just didn't work with RyanGrub.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07 (06:10):
surprised by that.
Honestly, the guy
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (06:11):
So was I.
But I'm like, okay, now we'regoing to 22 baby, we're gonna
run like K nine behind afullback.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07- (06:18):
Exactly.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (06:19):
then you've got, and then you've got,
you know, blocking tight endsand this other stuff.
I'm like, this is, this could,this could go.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (06:26):
yeah.
No doubt.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (06:28):
We shall see.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (06:29):
cool
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (06:29):
We shall see.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_ (06:30):
Absolutely.
And it's here.
It's
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (06:31):
We're gonna, we'll do some check-ins
here as we go along the season.
Um, let me like watch thissegue.
Here we go.
So the Seahawks might not be toobig to fail, but is private
equity too big to fail?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (06:44):
Hmm.
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (06:45):
That's our, that's our question for the
day.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (06:46):
cases to be made for that.
Yeah.
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (06:50):
I mean, where have we heard this
term before?
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15 (06:53):
Banking.
Yeah.
Bank, I mean, the, the last, thelast time we went through the,
the financial crisis was, youknow, back in the oh 8, 0 9 and
you had the too big to fail andthen it kind of bubbled up again
when you had SVB kind
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (07:09):
Oh.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (07:10):
at the verge of and, and.
The Fed came in and basicallysaid, and the, and the Treasury
came in and said, no, we're notgonna let them fail.
We're gonna orchestrate the saleof those banks.
And, you know, and we talkedabout that, I think last pod
before, you know, the s.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (07:24):
the sale or take a direct e equity
investment in it, or, you know,put together like bad asset
facilities and stuff, which alot of that stuff could easily
be applicable to private equity,private credit, you know, all of
that stuff.
The point is, there's 13trillion of assets under
management in these theseinstitutions now.
So I would make the case thatthey're pretty critical to the,
(07:46):
you know, money movement andoverall, uh, kind of fueling of
the economy.
I think one in 10 out there is,uh, is working for a company
that's private equity backed,which tracks to me for sure.
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (07:57):
What's the tip?
What, what makes something toobig to fail?
Or what's the tipping pointwhere it's like, Hey, this is a
thing in the market, but it'snot too big to fail now.
Oh, we gotta save it.
We gotta bail it out.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (08:07):
I,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (08:07):
so it's really, it's a, that's a
political question.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (08:10):
was just gonna
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (08:11):
With a political answer.
So it's how many workers orworkers or depositors are gonna
get impacted by the failure.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (08:19):
Ah,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (08:19):
when you go back to, and I'll, and
I'll go to the classic and Royalwill appreciate this'cause he is
a bankruptcy guy.
So I go back to 2008 financialcrisis and the automakers
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (08:30):
yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (08:31):
now Ford, God bless him, had gone
out prior to the financialcrisis, raised capital.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (08:36):
that's
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (08:36):
Just, I, it was almost dumb luck from
my perspective,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (08:40):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_1512 (08:40):
raised capital so they didn't have to
go through the federalgovernment thing, but the two
big automakers, so and, and, uh,GM basically had to file for
bankruptcy.
Well, they were too big to fail,so the government bailed them
out, but they bailed them out bybasically going get her file
bankruptcy.
But.
We're gonna reorder.
(09:00):
In order to do that, you'regotta follow our rules, which
are, because you're gonna layoff too many folks and it's
gonna screw up the pensionplans, and it's gonna screw up
the unions.
And so you're gonna have tohonor your union pension
contracts.
Even though those should nothave been honored in the
bankruptcy, they should havegone to erisa.
You're gonna have to keepcertain levels of employment,
even though normally youwouldn't.
You're gonna have to keepcertain plants open and you're
(09:22):
gonna have to shutter others.
You're gonna have to do, and soI Too big to fail is really like
a, and so they up, theyoverturned.
What would be the normalbankruptcy preference process?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (09:33):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (09:33):
order for pay for payment, in order
to, so they wiped out bondholders.
They wiped out secured creditorsand they kept unsecured
creditors in.
And, but it depended on who itwas.
And I think private equity's inthe same boat where you've got,
like Rory said, one out of every10 employees works for private
equity backed business.
That's a lot of votes.
And so I think it's one of thosewhere, you know, the, the issue
(09:54):
on private equity being too bigto fail is really.
Is the private equity is a waythat they've structured their
portfolio companies such thatthey cannot withstand kind of an
economic crisis.
'cause they have too muchleverage, they've got too much
in the way of covenants, whichthen cascades down to the banks.
So now you have private equityhas created the failure because
(10:16):
of how they've financiallyengineered the
emily-sander_1_07-31-20 (10:18):
They're so intertwined with the banks.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (10:20):
It's so intertwined with a bank's
private credit and, and one outof every 10 employees.
That there's an opportunity thatthe government will not let
private equity.
Now, they might take the, youknow, the, the equity general
partners.
Those guys are gonna pay theprice.
But the limited partners who arepension funds and college
(10:41):
endowments and state, you know,state pensions, they'll probably
be, we're gonna help take careof you.
The employees.
We're not gonna let y'all getoutta work.
And the banks, you know, theycan't let the banks fail.
So I think it's, the GP will getexposed.
Everybody else is, there's a lotof political capital there that
they're not gonna want to.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (11:00):
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (11:00):
but.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (11:01):
that too.
what, what's different now thatwe've seen, you know, going even
more recently to five years agowhere the government had stepped
in with stimuli of some sort islike, there seems to be a move
more towards directly, you know,supporting the consumer and
letting the, you know,surrounding.
and things like that, you know,wither and stuff, maybe a little
(11:23):
bit differently than, you know,basically propping up banks and
businesses in the past.
That being said, private equityis a, just a overall, um, kind
of industry.
it's, it's, there are many,many, many firms out there, so I
don't think it'd be a uniformthing.
We, you know, every privateequity group would be too big to
fail or, you know, But therewould be some, you know, it, it,
(11:47):
there, there would be some thatwould be left to die.
There would be some that wouldprobably be supported, you know,
like the Blackstones of theworld and you know, uh, you
know, Apollo and some of thebiggest ones out there.
I think there's probably a caseto be made that there's some
major institutional risk ifsomething like that tanked.
But, but not sort of middlemarket perhaps, you know?
(12:09):
So
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (12:10):
Well.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (12:11):
not so black and white, I guess in
that respect.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (12:13):
Well, you said major institutional
risk, and I'm wondering like.
There, is there a thresholdwhere this thing is so
intertwined?
This thing has so many workersinvolved or so many downstream
impacts that it, it just reachesa tipping point and then there's
maybe a question of how do we doit?
(12:34):
What conditions do we put onthis thing?
All these different, maybepolitical aspects, but is there
just a fundamental, this thingis so entrenched and
foundational now that we can'tnot do anything.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (12:46):
Hmm.
Some of it really does come downto the sector coverage.
I mean, I think there's probablysome pretty big private equity
funds out there.
Even even ones where Ed and Ihave like worked for their
operating companies that are,you know, basically.
Buy distressed businesses and,you know, distressed assets.
I don't think that that'snecessarily what the kind of
(13:08):
business, you know, PE groupwould be to prop up.
But it's, you know, others thatare exposed to, you know, uh,
manufacturing and, and othersort of, you know, kind of, uh,
healthcare, things like that.
I think it, it, it's not gonnabe a blanket approach, um, any
stretch.
And I think there, there has tobe a.
(13:28):
Probably a careful view as to,you know, what constitutes, you
know, uh, risk as we say.
You know, um, what does it meanif, if you let a big PE fail,
like you're going to, you'regonna affect a lot of pension
funds and endowments and otherLP institutions, but, um, but
maybe that's, maybe that's not,uh.
(13:52):
Maybe that's contained to sortof domestic LPs do, I mean, I'll
just put it out there.
Does, does the US care whether,know, a sovereign wealth fund
from the Middle East suffers thefate?
I don't know.
This is hypothetical, but theseare things that come to mind
when I think about how do youparse through, who you let you
know kind of stay, and who youlet die.
emily-sander_1_07-31-20 (14:15):
There's also, I mean, you mentioned
political, there's just opticsand sentiment where when the
automakers were in trouble andObama went in and saved them,
but also put these conditionsaround, you know, uh, emissions
and ev and all this stuff, therewas a sentiment of it.
You can't let Ford just die.
That's, that's not
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (14:36):
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (14:37):
okay.
That's not American.
Is there a sense of, you know,there's a different, uh, tone
when it comes to PE versus someof these other.
Industries, is there optics toit?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (14:48):
Well, I would argue they're definitely
not in the same, you know,political view as Ford per se,
right?
Like that's institution.
Uh, I think, I think there's aperception of private equity out
there that there, you know,it's, it's, it's not, it's, it's
a, it's opportunistic and, youknow, uh, you know, basically,
(15:10):
you know.
Can be harmful as much asanything in some ways for
vis-a-vis those otherinstitutions like banks and
stuff, you know, and, and othertra more traditionally viewed
sources of funding, call it.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (15:24):
Yeah, I think as Rory noted, the there
is a real dynamic of theperception of of the private
equity.
Again, the GP is gonna be theone that's vilified.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (15:37):
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (15:37):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (15:38):
when, when things are going bad,
politicians like to be able topoint to somebody or something
and go, it's your fault.
It's not my fault.
Even though I structured a bunchof things that made this as an
incentive for you.
Um, but it's not my fault.
It's your fault gp.
And therefore you're gonna endup with, you know, kind of
getting the, getting the hit.
(15:59):
And, you know, to your point,Emily, the, the, you know, it
was sad, it was sad for a carguy like me to see Pontiac die.
I mean, that was, and that wasrequired by the government.
The government said, Pontiac,you're dead.
Saturn, you're dead.
Sob.
You're dead.
Now, sob, less, less of aconcern for me, but the, know,
(16:19):
but they basically killed up,like with gm, they basically
said, you're gonna, they had aspecial working group from the
government who was here to helplook at all this stuff and say,
as a condition, you're gonnahave to kill off these
underperforming areas, etcetera, et cetera, et cetera.
But it's General Motors a asRory noted, that's a, that's a,
a icon going back to, you know,Alfred Sloan days and now
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07- (16:43):
industry in a
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (16:44):
Yeah.
And then, and then you go overto, and I think you've run on
the same thing with steel andyou're running into the same,
especially with the currentadministration who's kind of got
a fixation
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (16:51):
gonna say, yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (16:52):
realm manufacturing.
Um, but I don't think you'regonna get that same, you're not
gonna get that same feelingabout BlackRock.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (17:01):
Right, right.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (17:02):
No.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_0 (17:03):
BlackRock, the, the group that, you know,
again, this is fact, you know,buys up tracks of residential
homes and in massive swaths and,you know, is able to sort of
flip that to a pro.
I mean, like there's aperception, I'm not saying it's
correct or not correct.
About private equity that, uh,is, you know, vulture like, uh,
you know, um, uh, it's opticallynot the same thing as, you know,
(17:27):
saving, uh, you know, a, abanking system, for example,
even, you know, bank of Americawhere everyone, you know, goes
to, know, deposit theirpaychecks and, you know, take
out little loans for, you know,automobiles and things like
that, you know, whatever.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (17:43):
It is, it's almost like pe as a, as
a, as a group should hire like,um, like a PR firm to rebrand
themselves or to have a newimage.
'cause then they'll have somedifferent sentiment.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (17:57):
well,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (17:58):
to do that.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (17:59):
Love.
Yes, yes, yes, yes.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (18:01):
You know, maybe if that were the
case, like if Mitt Romneywould've be become president
back in the day, like that couldhave been a thing.
'cause he, he was, he came fromthe private equity space.
One thing that's clear though,you know, is like the whole
foundation of private equity isthat it's not a bank, right?
Like.
banks have been propped up, becabecause they're so close to, um,
(18:21):
you know, our, our, ourgovernment in a lot of ways.
You know, they're highly, highlyregulated.
Just the private equity model isa highly regulated set of
entities.
Would just, wouldn't be the samething.
It would be completelydifferent.
It would be, know, lower yieldand you know, much more, uh.
know, uh, narrow in, in what itcan do and can't do as a, as a
(18:41):
result of having thosegovernmental protections.
That's what the banks give up isbeing able to be competitive
with, you know, groups likeprivate credit, private credit
funds, and, and PE because haveto have a certain level of
capital bank.
Banks have to, you know, adhereto certain regulations that came
out of that financial crisis asa result of having to be propped
(19:02):
up, you know?
So, um, PE would become morebank-like if they were in that
scenario, probably.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (19:07):
How did PE do for the 2008 financial
crisis for COVID?
Like were they resilient or werethey at the edge of.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (19:15):
Well, I would, I would make an
argument.
Certainly the PE group that Roryand I were working with, they
actually helped the governmentin the 2008 financial crisis.
'cause they went
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (19:22):
Ah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (19:23):
to the, to the, like, and, and even
prior, they went to R tc.
They've got, they, they gottheir start like in the RTC
world back in, you know, kind ofbuying up bank assets.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (19:34):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15 (19:34):
they're, you know, the, they, they
provided liquidity for illiquid.
Illiquid elements so that thegovernment could get'em off
their balance sheet.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (19:44):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (19:44):
they made a small fortune, large
fortune
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (19:48):
I am sure they did.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (19:49):
Um, but that was, that was part of
the, that was they privateequity in large part bailed out,
helped bail out the 2008financial crisis for a profit.
Of course, it was not analtruistic thing, but you know,
they provided the liquidity.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (20:05):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (20:06):
The COVID.
I think COVID, we talked aboutthis a lot.
I think COVID actually is gonnaprove to be a disruptor.
The other direction where assetprices went way up.
Um, you know, the, the discountrate came way down and they
ended up overpaying for a bunchof stuff.
And I think there's gonna be akind of a reckoning as to what
(20:28):
the returns are gonna be onthose, on those.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (20:30):
risk premium should have been higher
for sure.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (20:33):
Oh yeah, it should have.
And, and the challenge therewas, you know, when you've got
everybody cha, when you've got alot of liquidity chasing too few
deals, the, the concept, thoseconcepts start going, it becomes
a, a supply and demand thing.
And you move off of yourspreadsheet where you've gone,
okay, what's the beta, what'sthe risk premium?
(20:53):
What's the risk free rate?
And you go, well, the risk freerate's now zero because they.
Or negative'cause they'vebasically cut interest rates
down to nothing.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (21:01):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (21:02):
they try and keep the economy moving
and so, you know, you overpay inthat moment.
But that now that we've got arisk-free rate sitting up at
like 4%, which the Fed chose notto make any changes to interest
rates.
You know that what's changed isthat that risk, that risk return
component has gone up by 4%, andso you're now, now when you're
(21:24):
doing your discount rate, the,the, even if the risk premium
has not changed, so it's, youknow, 4% or 5% over rate, the
risk-free rates changesubstantially.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (21:35):
Yeah, that's right.
and then off offset by that is,of course, you know, the
benefits one got if you'reinvested in the company, uh,
from all the stimulus and, andPPP and all the, all the loans
that were forgiven, uh, youknow, during that time, you
know, like basically.
US Treasury was, uh, an ATMmachine rather than
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151 (21:55):
Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (21:56):
out actual loans that you had to pay
back.
So, yeah, I mean there's, it wasan interesting time for sure.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (22:01):
So you both got in the risk premium
quota.
Ding.
DD ding for the episode.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (22:05):
times.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (22:06):
can you explain like in normal human
language what Ed was just sayingwith like the risk premium and
the 4% and the dah, dah, dah.
Like what does that mean in reallife?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (22:15):
It just means that at a point in
time, the price for assets wasartificially low relative to the
intrinsic value and should havebeen reflected with higher,
higher pricing based on the riskthat is
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (22:29):
Okay.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (22:30):
and come to bear.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (22:32):
Okay.
And is making a face, like, howcould you not have understood
me, but.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (22:37):
I was just sad that I wasn't the
one asked to explain my owndefinition of, because I teach
this.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (22:43):
I, yeah.
Yeah.
I'm, I'm, uh, yeah.
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (22:47):
What Ed meant to say was, um, okay.
Double barrel question for you,what would cause a legitimate PE
crisis, and then what do youthink would happen?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (23:00):
Gosh, that's a wonderful question.
Uh, I think.
A shock to the capital marketswhere, you know, somehow the, if
there's variable interest ratedebt on the books and, and
interest rates moved upmassively in a shock scenario
(23:21):
that you couldn't reallyforecast or hedge for.
Then that would create a problembecause I'd say the biggest
inherent risk with the privateequity business model, as we've
talked about in our book andeven on this podcast, is the use
of leverage.
You know, just lever leverage.
Leverage.
Leverage just means when the,when the, when the, know, when
the merry-go-round stops,somebody's gotta pay the bill,
(23:42):
and if it stops in a place whereyou can't afford to pay the
bill, then there's problems, youknow?
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (23:48):
Yeah, it's, it is gonna be, it's gonna
be a liquidity issue, and thatliquidity is gonna be driven by,
you know, as Rory said, it's ashock to the capital market.
So when you end up with, withdecreased liquidity, so
basically banks aren't willingto loan at certain rates order
to refinance debt.
The interest rates start to goup.
(24:08):
Essentially, it's a supply anddemand issue.
And so if you've got a, ifyou've got a supply of money and
there's a high demand for it.
From a liquidity perspective,that's when interest rates rise.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (24:17):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (24:17):
so that, that becomes, even if they
do have the ability to refinancethe existing debt, the, the
issue will then be one of,they've either gotta go back out
to their limited partners andgo, Hey, I need more money'cause
I've gotta now dele the theseinvestments, so I need to put in
equity, which is gonna impactyour return significantly.
Or I'm refinancing, but I'mrefinancing at a higher interest
(24:40):
rate, which has higher debtservice.
Which is gonna impact theperformance of the underlying
asset.
Now again, most of thesecompanies trade on an EBITDA
multiple, so you don't have tofactor in interest.
So they're gonna, you know,arguably a private equity
sponsor's gonna go, yeah, I'mgonna prefer to do that because
I still get the same ebitda.
But the leverage is still thereand a cashflow is now going out
(25:03):
to the bank.
And if you don't, if you've gota larger financial crisis, your
ability to be able to cover thatdebt service is gonna be
limited.
Because you're likelyexperiencing top line, top line
pressure as well at theportfolio company.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (25:16):
The fact of the matter is that the
private equity is, is probablynever gonna be like the direct
bailout because the system isbased on their borrowing.
So banks effectively, if youwill, and other, other more
regulated sources.
So like is the bailout would beto the banks to, to backstop
(25:37):
what?
what the obligation from pe,when I say pe meaning PE
operating companies and all the,like, there would be a, there
would be a direct bailout moreto the banks than the PE sector
itself.
Now, there may be some, as Edtalked about, you know, some
sort of, um, retribution or not,that's not the right word, but
like there, there would be some.
(25:59):
Some means to go after thegeneral partners in these
businesses to basically try tomake the, the government whole,
if it's gonna ba, you know, bailout the banks that would then
support the private equity, youknow, businesses and stuff.
Um, it, it would just be, Idon't think that I, I just think
it would be somehow, some way,not a direct, Hey, we're gonna,
(26:20):
we're gonna bail out, um, youknow, BC private equity group.
I just don't see that happening.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (26:26):
So you said shock to the system.
So is this an acute, is this adrastic increase in interest
rates and or over a short periodof time, or is what, what
trigger it?
That would trigger it?
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (26:38):
Yeah.
And again, I don't know thelikelihood of that something
like that happens.
We're talking in bigTheoreticals Hall here,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (26:43):
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (26:44):
um,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (26:44):
But theoretically that like if that
somehow.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (26:47):
cause that, ed?
What do you think?
Like what would be, what wouldresult in like, just a spike
like that,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (26:52):
I, I think it would be a combination.
Yeah, it would be.
Well, yeah, an invasion ofTaiwan.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (26:58):
That's exactly Good point.
I was gonna say
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (27:01):
so.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (27:02):
Yeah,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (27:03):
Yeah, so an invasion of Taiwan would
probably have a significantspike in in, and then the other
one would be a sovereign debtcrisis like US sovereign debt
crisis where we fail to raise adebt ceiling.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (27:15):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (27:15):
And so now all of a sudden you've,
the risk on the, again,risk-free rate is generally
driven by the US Treasury,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (27:22):
Yes.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (27:22):
by the, by the, in theory it's the
US Treasury bill, 30 daytreasury bill is the, is the
risk-free rate proxy.
And so if the, there's a USsovereign debt crisis, the val,
then the interest rates on thoseare gonna spike.
As a result, you're gonna seethat cascade all the way through
the the system, and that's onethat you know, if it's a debt
(27:46):
ceiling issue, you may not knowuntil the day that vote's taken
whether it actually is increasedor decreased, although the mark
will price in a probability, butit could go opposite of what you
expect.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (27:57):
I'm trying to remember like the last
time that happened to a countryin the world.
I mean, I'm sure it actuallyhappens more than I think and
gets headlines for, but one thatcomes to my mind, many, you
know, maybe like 15 years ago orsomething like that was like
Iceland, where it really like itcompletely, failed in that
regard.
Um, yeah.
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (28:18):
else do people need to know about PE
being too big to fail or not?
I guess we've assumed that.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07- (28:23):
takeaway here is, uh, you know, PE is, is
and I'll throw private credit inthere too, but basically,
sources of financing thataren't, aren't banks and things
like that.
Um, it's just, it's so integralto the economy.
There's so muchinterconnectedness as, I mean,
again, you talk about it fromthe standpoint of assets under
management, meaning, you know,uh, companies that are owned,
(28:45):
which then employ people forwhich, you know, one in 10
people work for private equityback.
It's really integral.
It's, uh, it's not a, not like asmall part of the economy.
It's massive, you know, and it'sglobal too.
So, um, yeah.
So I think anything, um, know,hitting the economy hard is
gonna affect.
You know, private equity just asmuch as it does, you know, any
(29:07):
other or, or source offinancing, basically, banks, et
cetera, they're all tiedtogether.
It's all
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (29:13):
Yeah.
I, I think,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (29:14):
It's like it's all truly tied
together.
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (29:18):
yeah, I think the, the private equity
situation, you know, as, as bestI could analogize it would be,
it is not the gonna be the firstdomino that falls.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07- (29:28):
Correct.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (29:29):
Um, but it's gonna be one of the
dominoes and it's portfolio, soit's not likely to cause the
problem, but it is likely to getimpacted by like where he said,
like, by any macroeconomic issueand a dominoes may be falling
this way or they may be fallingthis way.
And in 2008.
They may have been follow bothdirections.
The private equity was actuallythe domino where stuff fell and
(29:50):
it propped it up on both sides,you know, in the case of some of
the, the toxic assets.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (29:55):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (29:57):
you know, you may, and again, that
was my experience'cause I was inthe financial services sector,
but the other way, you know,it's, it's likely to get
cascaded and because of theleverage and because of the
ownership structure.
They're likely to have amplifieddownstream impacts to the
portfolio.
The portfolio companies arereally what gets impacted,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (30:16):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (30:17):
and that's where your, that and the
limited partners are gonna bethe ones that are impacted most.
And they're also gonna be theones, if there's a bailout, if
there's a too big to fail, it'sgonna be because of pension
funds.
So you got ERISA and thegovernment will pull, will pull
themselves into the processbecause of erisa.
Or it's gonna be because youhave a lot of workers getting
(30:38):
displaced and there's a lot ofleverage, and then they'll
overreact and put a bunch ofregulation in place to
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (30:44):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (30:44):
fix the problem.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (30:46):
It reminds me of those plants that
you see the plant above theground and then there's this
huge interwoven root systemwhere if you try to pull this
thing up, you're pulling up likeyour entire yard and you just
don't see all these connectionsuntil something horrible
happens.
Um, just outta curiosity, isthere a PE firm, I mean I think
of like US-based PE firms, isthere a significant PE firm?
(31:12):
Headquartered in another part ofthe world where if something
happens to that one forgeopolitical reasons or
something else, it'll have a, arebound effect to us, or are we
kind of the center of things andthen it'll go the other
direction?
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (31:26):
Um, no, there's PE firms worldwide.
Um, but I actually think yourgeopolitical impacts are gonna
be more sovereign wealth funds
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (31:34):
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (31:34):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (31:35):
fund to oversee.
So a sovereign wealth fund, youknow, like your, a lot of your
petro states.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (31:40):
Yep.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (31:40):
The Scandinavia countries, they have
sovereign wealth funds, and ifsomething happens there where
they need to get liquid, that's,and that's gonna be an, a
geopolitical impact.
And they've got investmentincluding investment in private
equity that could cascade downthrough, um, cascade through the
system.
So I think it's, you know, you,you have the Saudi.
(32:01):
Sore fund, which is one of thelargest in the world, or may the
largest in the world, andsomething happens in the Middle
East because it's the MiddleEast.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (32:09):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (32:09):
be a.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (32:11):
Big time.
Yep.
emily-sander_1_07-31-20 (32:12):
Gotcha.
How likely do you think this isI.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (32:15):
Hmm.
How, how likely do we think a a,you know, a 2008 level crisis is
at this point in time?
I kind of put it on the samelevel.
I mean, it'd just be a, have tobe a systematic failure.
And I guess I just, never failedto be surprised by stuff.
Happening like that.
I think we watched that
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (32:34):
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-3 (32:35):
unfold, you know, like, um, running into
an iceberg, you know, likepeople could see what was
happening to the averageconsumer being over leveraged,
and, yet, you know, the systemwas still just propagating, you
know, debt.
So, again, I think that commonthread is debt, right?
Like it's, I think these thingsare gonna be, it's all about,
(32:55):
you know, can be sustained as,as far as.
service go, and as soon as thatcollapses, then the whole system
kind of collapses.
You
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (33:04):
Yeah, historically, about every 10 to
15 years, there's a significantcrisis.
As Rory noted, it's normallydriven around debt and the
thought process going into itjust prior to it is this time's
really different because, andit's.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31 (33:22):
humans are different because,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (33:23):
Yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (33:24):
Yeah.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (33:24):
it was, it was one of, there's some
classic joke that was like assoon as the barber, as soon as
the barber started givinginvestment advice, that's when
like Warren Buffet's, like I'm.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (33:33):
yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (33:34):
yeah.
Yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (33:35):
that movie.
Oh my gosh.
It's a famous movie where.
It has Jeremy Irons in it and heand like Demi Moore and all
these people.
And there's this famous scenewhere Jeremy Irons is like this
head honcho, hedge fund manageror whatever, and he is eating,
uh, like dinner at a really nicehotel.
And this guy's freaking outlike, aren't you scared that
this big thing is gonna, isgonna happen again?
(33:57):
And he is like, of course itwill.
It's like, what do you meanhumans are humans?
This is gonna happen again.
This whole cycle that everythingeveryone thinks is the most
traumatic thing ever, it'llhappen again.
I'm counting on it and it wasjust like,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (34:08):
but I mean,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (34:10):
oh my gosh.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (34:11):
in life seems to be cyclical in, in
most cases.
You know, NA in nature and allof those things.
So.
maybe that's a human trait.
Uh, I'm
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (34:20):
Yeah.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (34:20):
but you know, like, yeah, it seems
to be we're old enough now wherewe've been through a few of
these things
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (34:27):
Jesus.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (34:27):
back to it and say.
Wow, this seems like it wasbefore, you know?
Um, it, but yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (34:34):
Yeah,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (34:34):
Um, and I guess humans are a hopeful
species of, of, of beings where,to Ed's point, it's gonna be
different in the future, it'sgonna be different, it's gonna
be different.
With ai, it's, it's all good,you know, like, no worries.
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (34:48):
humans are a hopeful species.
Um, let's round out, what do wehope for, uh, Seahawks preseason
first game against the Las VegasRaiders?
With the new quarterback GinoSmith.
Not quite the official gameopener between Gino Smith and
Russell Wilson.
Remember that one when it openedour season, right when we traded
(35:09):
Russell and then the first gamethey came to.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:12):
It wrote me off, but I didn't write
back.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (35:14):
Oh my gosh.
And at that point I like I was.
Hating Russell Wilson Prettyhard.
I was like, I wanna see you getsacked so many times, bro.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (35:24):
man.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (35:25):
You left in a got too big for your
Britches
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (35:27):
gotta stay
emily-sander_1_07-31 (35:28):
Unlimited.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (35:29):
is
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (35:29):
I'm unlimited.
Who do you think is gonna winour preseason game?
I gotta vote for the hawks.
Come on.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:36):
I, I actually.
I actually think the Raiders aregonna win because
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (35:42):
No.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_1 (35:42):
Carroll's gonna wanna win.
And Mike McDonald, so PeteCarroll's got, Pete Carroll and
Gino Smith have a reason to comein here
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (35:51):
True.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:51):
show that they made a mistake.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (35:52):
True,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:53):
The folks that are here have a
reason to not get injured and
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (35:57):
yes.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (35:57):
that we kind of play that.
So I think I, I think it's gonnabe the Raiders.
I think Pete Carroll is, he'slike one of the finest coaches
of that.
I've of.
and I've been exposed to anumber of coaches firsthand as
well as, you know, kind of beena, a student of the game for a
long time.
He is one of the classiest,
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (36:16):
He is.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025 (36:18):
exceptional coaches.
The only time I didn't like himwas'cause I'm a Notre Dame guy,
was when he was a Southern Cal.
So I was glad he left, um,Southern Cal.
But, you know, I, I would notmind seeing Pete Carroll go
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (36:29):
I,
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (36:29):
with a, with a win at the end of the
season or see the hawks and theRaiders in the Super Bowl.
I'd like to see Pete Carrollsuccessful.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (36:36):
cool would that be?
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (36:37):
that would be awesome.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (36:38):
but I, I can't root against the
hawks, but I, I think Vegaspulls this one
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_151 (36:43):
I met Pete Carroll once, did I
tell you that?
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (36:46):
No.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (36:46):
No.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (36:47):
So we were at the, it was actually
during G two and we were at oneof the, our baseball games, like
the work baseball thing, and wewere playing against the.
Like the facilities people ofthe stadium and to support the
facilities people.
Pete Carroll came and justplayed like one inning, and I
like actually tagged him out andhe was like, good ball, good
(37:08):
job.
And he like tapped me on theback and I was like, okay.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (37:11):
Hang.
Wow.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (37:12):
Yeah.
And he was just, he was justdoing that to support his
people.
He played like one inning, hitthe ball, ran and then left, but
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (37:18):
65 at that time
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (37:19):
Oh yeah.
No, he was, I mean he was, youknow,
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-202 (37:22):
so impressive.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (37:23):
but I was like.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (37:24):
the only guy I ever met was the one
at, at, it was at G two and itwas Mike Holmgren at the QFC in
Bellevue.
Near
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (37:31):
Oh, no
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (37:31):
the office.
Mike and Kathy Holmgren
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_1 (37:34):
Who is hard to miss?
He's a big man.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15122 (37:36):
dude.
Yeah, he is a big dude.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (37:38):
guy.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (37:38):
he's a large man.
Okay.
All right.
So we're going with, um, theRaiders are gonna win the
preseason game, but the Seahawksare gonna play it safe and
smart, not get injured so we canrock and roll in the official
season.
That's where we're, that's whatwe're landing with.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (37:53):
I think it was Consensus Sea go to
the playoffs with the three ofus.
Right?
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_ (37:57):
Yep.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_151228 (37:57):
Rory
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025_15 (37:58):
we go.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-20 (37:59):
No, I was on the, I was on the, I
was on the bandwagon for sure.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I won't
emily-sander_1_07-31-202 (38:05):
there.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31-2 (38:06):
the, I won't, I won't saddle this
conversation with.
Prognostications on theWashington.
No ski.
So we can, I'll keep that tomyself, but yeah.
emily-sander_1_07-31-2025 (38:13):
We'll do that next time.
We'll do.
squadcaster-f7a4_1_07-31- (38:17):
Yeah.
See you guys.
Bye-Bye.
snuffy_1_07-31-2025_15 (38:19):
Doodles.
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