Does the phrase "Subjective Probability Estimation" make you feel uncomfortable? If you're a data-driven professional, you're likely wary of each of those terms on their own, let alone combining them into one thing.
But we sometimes need to do it. And we can practice to get better at it.
In this episode, we emphasize the importance of subjective probability estimations in decision-making, especially in situations where concrete data may be unavailable or impractical.
We talk about:
• Exploring the discomfort of subjective probability estimations
• Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations for complex systems analysis
• Addressing bias and improving estimation accuracy
Inspired by Douglas W. Hubbard's "The Failure of Risk Management," we uncover strategies to sharpen our estimation skills. Consistent practice leads to improvements. Whether it's by imagining you're betting money, breaking down complex estimations, or engaging in true-false trivia, this episode emphasizes regular practice in refining these skills.
I invite you to participate in a collaborative endeavor tailored for engineers—creating a shared database of estimation questions—to foster a community of learning and improvement.
- Choose a true/false question (with answer).
- Or ask for a value (e.g. distance in air travel from LAX to PHL) (with answer).
Share it with Dianna to add to a database for sharing. Either leave a message through the link at the top of these show notes or respond in email to Dianna's newsletter.
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ABOUT DIANNA
Dianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.
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