Footfall Insights March 2025

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Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat about footfall trends and shopping behaviours

Consumer spending remains cautious as footfall stays flat across UK retail channels, rising just 0.2% in February compared to last year. Retail sales grew by only 1.1% while in-store non-food sales actually declined by 1%, revealing continued economic uncertainty despite some positive indicators.

• Retail parks performed best with a 2% footfall increase, while high streets and shopping centres saw just 0.1% growth
• All five major high street sectors (fashion, food/drink, general retail, grocery, health/beauty) experienced sales declines in February
• Fashion continues struggling with a 7.4% sales drop, while household goods showed improvement with 4.7% growth
• Fewer people are shopping (transactions down 8.1%, customer numbers down 6.7%), but those who do spend are spending more per visit (ATV up 2.9%)
• Consumer caution likely driven by lingering economic uncertainty, interest rates, upcoming National Living Wage increases, and global political factors
• Savings rates reached 10% - highest since the pandemic - despite wage growth of 5.9% outpacing inflation
• Upcoming holiday season may further impact retail spending as consumers prioritize leisure experiences over material purchases

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Productivity Podcast.
Diane Whirl, ceo and founder ofRendell Intelligence, is back
for another chat about how we'refaring on the high streets and
shopping centres.
January to Feb 2025, di.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Yep, simon, that's it .
That's where we are.
We're coming up to the secondmonth of the first quarter Feels
like we're whizzing through theyear already and as we record,

(00:35):
the sun's shining.
So it does feel like we'veturned the corner from winter
into spring, stroke summer.
So that's the key indicators offootfall and sales, of course.
So footfall was static inFebruary.
Largely it was flat on lastyear.
So it rose by 0.2% across allretail channels.
So that's high streets, retailparks and shopping centres, and

(00:57):
this is footfall into stores.
So it's a good indicator ofwhether people are spending or
not.
The biggest increase, albeitjust two percent, was in retail
parks and that's probablybecause they're convenient and,
um, they've got supermarkets onthem.
So you have to buy food um just0.1 percent increase in high
street and shopping retailers,so pretty flat.

(01:19):
Month on on footfall um, thebrc reported sales um of 1.1
percent up on feb 2024 andthat's a similar, that's the
same, increase as happened.
Annual increase happened in feb2024, so 1.1.
But non-food in-store salesactually fell by one percent.

(01:39):
So whilst overall sales andthat includes online and offline
rose, in-store sales on thenon-food side declined and
really that probably reflectswhat's happening in the high
street and Beauclair reports onhigh street sales, specifically
in-store high street sales, andin January in-store high street
sales on the high street droppedby 5.4%, so a fairly big drop.

(02:04):
And that drop really occurredacross all sectors other than
household, funnily enough, whichrose by 4.7 percent.
But households hada prettytorrid time across the last 12
months, so it's coming from alow level.

Speaker 1 (02:19):
What do we class as household?
What's in that category?

Speaker 2 (02:21):
So that's, you know anything that sells furnishings,
soft furnishings, um, all thosesorts of things.
You know, um, anything that'svaguely associated with
household really.
So you know it's.
It's sort of a mixed bag ofthings, but if we think about
our homes, it would be any ofthose sorts of things that we

(02:41):
would um, and we would findlighting, linens, that sort of
stuff, yeah, and then, of course, the big thing was the
challenging time that fashionwas having and that's still
having a challenging time.
So five sectors account foraround 85% of all sales in the

(03:04):
high street.
So they're fashion, food anddrink and drink, general retail,
which is department stores, anddiscount retailers, so mixed
bag retailers, grocery andhealth and beauty, and all five
saw a drop in their sales infebruary.
Um, and the biggest drops werein fashion still, uh, 7.4

(03:26):
percent, and food and drink um,but what separates fashion and
food and drink is, though theyboth saw a drop in their sales,
the atv and food and drink.
The average transaction valuerose by 3.3 percent, so those
people who were spending on foodand drink were spending more.
Likewise, in general retail,the drop in sales of 2.9 percent

(03:48):
, but the atv rose by 4.7percent.
So those who were going intodepartment stores, um were
spending more.
And in health and beauty, thesame picture 4.7 percent drop in
total sales but a three percentincrease in atv.
So some sectors, whilst youknow facing fairly challenging
terms overall, actually seeingsome light at the end of the

(04:09):
tunnel, really so we're back tothe conversation we've had in a
few of these previous chatsaround.

Speaker 1 (04:14):
You've got to be maximizing the ability to sell
to your existing customersbecause it's it's hard to get
new ones or even retain, soyou've got to be selling more to
the same or slightly lessabsolutely.

Speaker 2 (04:26):
I mean overall um, you know, in terms of what
dropped um, in terms of the um,there's three metrics that make
up sales, transactions,customers and atv.
So you know how many people arebuying, how many transactions
they make and how much theyspend.
And um, you know there were bigdrops in both transactions and

(04:47):
customers transactions droppedby 8.1 percent in february,
customers by 6.7.
So you can see that there arejust fewer people buying um, but
the atv rose by 2.9, as yousaid.
You know, those people who dohave cash uh, probably older, I
would say less um, inhibited byheavy mortgage payments are

(05:08):
still spending Because interestrates, whilst they've come down
a little bit, are still higherthan they were back in,
obviously, 2020 and 2021.
So they're getting a bit ofreturn on their investment.

Speaker 1 (05:18):
So we've got a cautious nation, I suppose,
bracing themselves for, in somedegree, national living wage
stuff, and I, if you're anemployer, we've got spring
statement coming in a week or so, so again people be wondering
what that's going to include.
We've got, hopefully, the endto ukraine in sight and that

(05:41):
that's impacted petrol prices, Ibelieve.
I think they're kind of anall-time low over the last two
or three years at the moment.
And then clearly the madness inin america, which um changes on
a day-to-day basis or an hourto hour basis, doesn't it?
So it it feels like we're stillin this holding pattern.
We again we discussed before ofpeople not quite sure, maybe

(06:02):
saving more, is that a thing?

Speaker 2 (06:04):
it is.
I mean, mean, the latestsavings information from the ONS
isn't out till the end of March, but in the first few months of
the year and up to the end oflast year, you know, savings
were at 10%, which is thehighest they've been since the
pandemic, and I think everyonewas feeling, you know the fact

(06:24):
that people had to dip intotheir savings.
Really because you reallybecause just from the legacy of
very high inflation and peopleare trying to recoup that, I
mean, wage inflation has justcome out the latest wage
inflation information and that'ssitting at 5.9%, which is
clearly higher than inflation,which is great news, but that

(06:46):
doesn't seem to be flowingthrough into retail spend
particularly.
People are being very cautiousand holding back on that.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
Okay.
So similar to what we sawcoming out of Christmas, I
suppose caution, rising costs inmortgages, maybe people still
paying off a bit of the spend oroverspend from the festive
period but also casting forwardinto the uncertainty.
I suppose that existseconomically and in the world
economy.
Economy I know again, at thetime of recording the bank of

(07:16):
england keeping quite close totheir chest, what they're going
to do with interest rates.
Is it up, is it down, is it isit fit, is it stay fixed, which
can have a significant impacteither way absolutely and you
know people aren't.

Speaker 2 (07:29):
You know they don't exist in the bubble.
They know that.
You know their employers aremaking you know arrangements and
changes to their businesses totry and absorb or offset the
increased NI and minimum wage.
And they're seeing thesereorganizations within their
teams.
They're seeing some peopleleave and not replaced, some

(07:50):
people have got a hold onrecruitment, some people are
making redundancies.
So it makes people feel verynervous and that inhibits the
amount they really want to spend.
Sales were up, total sales wereup by 1%, so it's a marginal
increase over the year, butthat's not exciting really.

(08:12):
It's not saying that people aregoing out there and spending.
I mean in.
You know, in january actuallythey're up 2.6 percent and here
in back in february they nowdropped down to 1.1 percent up.

Speaker 1 (08:23):
So you know there's clearly a cautiousness sitting
out there amongst consumers andI assume in the coming months
we'll start to see how that'simpacting holiday bookings, all
that kind of stuff, as peopleagain cast even further forward
into the summer absolutely, andI think you know it's going to
be interesting again to seewhether this, the rush for
holidays, carries on and whetherpeople prioritize holidays and

(08:43):
leisure over things.

Speaker 2 (08:45):
Um, because clearly you know there is some spending
he had when people were cold.
It's because people want, youknow, to upgrade their wardrobes
and to buy some stuff to goaway with.
But, um, generally, if you'respending a fair chunk on a
holiday, you will possibly notspend it as much in the high
street, um, or in store anyway.
So, um, yeah, it's going to bereally interesting to see

(09:06):
whether the trend for, and thedemand for, holidays carries on
this year.
I mean, obviously, the holidayum, adverts are out, the offers
are out, um, so that's temptingpeople already good, we'll pause
there.

Speaker 1 (09:20):
We'll see where we are when we come back and look
at, uh, february to march,because hopefully the spring
statement had been delivered bythen and we'll know about
interest rates and all thoseother things that people will be
um slightly anxious about.
So thanks once again, diet, andwe'll catch up next month
thanks, simon.