Footfall Insights May 2025

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Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat about footfall trends and shopping behaviours from March to April 2025. Consumer confidence has taken a hit as Easter trading results reveal ongoing caution, with the GFK Index dropping from -19 in March to -23 in April 2025. Despite footfall increasing by 7.2% in April year-on-year, the combined March-April period showed minimal growth of just 0.2% when accounting for Easter timing differences.

• Consumer confidence dropped across most age groups except 25-34 year olds
• Retail parks saw 2.7% footfall increase while shopping centres declined by 0.7%
• High street sales dropped 2.2% over the March-April period
• Fashion sales down 5% in the first four months of 2025
• Clothing and footwear prices decreased 0.4% in April, suggesting retailer discounting
• Overall inflation rose to 3.5%, driven by housing, utilities and communication costs
• National Living Wage and NI increases took effect end of April, adding pressure to retailers
• Recent cyber attacks on retailers highlight security vulnerabilities and potential additional costs
• PWC research suggests declining consumer sentiment typically precedes behavioural changes by six months

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Productivity Podcast.
We're back for our monthly chat.
Diane world return, CEO andfounder at Rendell Intelligence,
and we are now in April 2025,which covers Easter.
Hi, Diane.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Hi Simon, how are you ?

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Yeah, good, thank you All good.
So we're in what should be oneof the key trading periods of
the year now shouldn't itoutside of Christmas?

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Absolutely.
This year was a bit strangebecause obviously last year, in
2024, Easter was at the tail endof March and this year it's in
the middle of April, so thatoffset has caused some
distortion.
But to get over that, quite alot of the data houses have put
an average out for March andApril which sort of gives that

(00:45):
balances that out a little and Iwish I could say it was
fabulous news.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
That's not good.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
Well, it's not fantastic and it's a bit of a
holding pattern really.
I think the data on consumerconfidence which I think is
probably maybe where I'll startwith actually is saying that
consumers are nervous.
The latest GFK data so theyproduce Consumer Confidence
Index each month and theyproduce it fairly early in the

(01:12):
month, so about the same time asjust after Easter showed that
their consumer confidencedropped by four points on their
index score, so from minus 19 inMarch to minus 23 in April on
their index score, so from minus19 in March to minus 23 in
April.
Consumers are definitelyfeeling more nervous and that

(01:34):
was reinforced by the recent PwCconsumer sentiment report.
And they showed that consumersof all ages were feeling less
positive.

Speaker 1 (01:40):
Apart from the 25 to 34 year olds, which is probably
fueled by increased wageincreases, consumers are
generally quite nervous and thatimpacted what occurred in april
and spending in april that's sothat 25 age band I suppose
that's people who are againcoming out of uni, almost isn't
it and then in in their firstjobs and starting at a junior

(02:03):
level and then maybe gettingbigger, bigger pay increases, et
cetera.

Speaker 2 (02:06):
Absolutely.
And of course you know the wagemarket, you know the employment
market is quite tight.
People are looking for goodpeople and we've seen some good
pay rises over the last coupleof years and I think that's
flowing through into that 25 to34-year-old age group.
And of course they haven'tprobably yet tied themselves
down to mortgages as much andmany of them haven't got
families, so they aren'tincurring those fixed costs that

(02:28):
a lot of older people are.
So they're sitting therelooking at wage increases and
feeling quite positive really,but what's the rest of us who
are slightly older, laboringunder increased costs?

Speaker 1 (02:40):
Indeed.
I mean, we've talked about thisnow for quite a while, haven't
we?
In terms of kind of thisturbulent, turbulent air and
treacherous water, so it feelsagain still unstable.
What were some of the otherdetails that you've seen in this
time period?

Speaker 2 (02:57):
yeah, so footfall, um , which was produced by
sensomatics, that's footfallinto retail, which is a good
proxy for how many customersstores are attracting went up
significantly in April by 7.2%from April last year.
But of course, don't forget,Easter wasn't in April last year
, so we're looking at a low,comparable Over the two months

(03:18):
up March and April.
So that takes out thedistortion of the offset of
Easter.
Footfall was up by 0.2% lastyear, so not a massive increase
at all and most of that was fromretail parks.
So 2.7% increase in retailparks.
So people were definitely goingout of town to shop Shopping

(03:40):
centres.
Actually, footfall dropped overthe two months by 0.7%.
So the fashion know, thefashion element, the
discretionary element was, youknow, football dropped and
interestingly, BRC also did thistwo-month average as well and
they came out with an average of4.3% increase over the two
months.
But of course that includesstore sales and non-store sales

(04:02):
in town and out of town.
The whole gamut.
Sales did go up in April by 7%,so similar to the Sensomatic
data, but they'd only gone up inMarch by 1.1%, which of course
was non-Easter versus Easterlast year.
So 4.3% up over the two months,which is good, but of course,
as I said, that includes food,non-food and non-store sales.

(04:27):
In terms of sales in the highstreet, measured by Beauclair,
Easter wasn't fabulous, Aprilwasn't fabulous.
It was flat on last year, 0.1%below April last year.
So given that we had Easterthis year in April and we didn't
have it last year, that's notparticularly strong.
And over the two months, Marchand April, high street sales

(04:49):
dropped by 2.2%.
So you know people in highstreets are having a fairly
challenging time.
You know people in high streetsare having a fairly challenging
time.
So not great I mean Sensomaticsaid over the two months.
You know footfall in the highstreets is just 0.2% up.
So it's not surprising thatsales aren't rocketing through
the roof in the high streets.

(05:09):
Footfall's not having, you know, an amazing change either.
So you know, I think people arejust waiting to see what's
happening quite cautious.
You know it was good news inthe previous few weeks with the
reduction in interest rates, butthen inflation came through

(05:35):
during this week, which has goneup to 3.5%, reflecting
increases in housing and utilityprices, which is the main
driver of that and,interestingly, also what the ONS
call communication, which isessentially telephony prices.
That's gone up significantly aswell.
So that's going to pinch a lotof people.
But on the plus side, forretail destinations, clothing

(05:56):
and footwear is actually in aperiod of deflation.
So in april prices drop by 0.4,possibly through discounting um
as people aren't really buyinga lot of fashion I suppose
weather dependency isn't it.

Speaker 1 (06:08):
And then we're in that season now where it's kind
of swimwear and holiday stuff,isn't it so if you've not booked
a holiday abroad, that'll slowdown sales.
If the weather's not good,that'll slow down sales,
although we'll see where it pansout in in may, because we had a
period of nice weather, so that, yeah, fashion's always stuck
in that cycle, isn't it ofweather dependency and, to some

(06:29):
degree, how much we're spendinggoing abroad yeah, absolutely.

Speaker 2 (06:32):
but you know, last april, fashion you know fashion
was did go up, inflation went up, which of course that fed the
reduction in fashion sales andnow of course retailers are
forced to discount a little bitand people, you know I think
fashion's just had a reallychallenging time.
It continues to be challenging.
The Beauclair data has shownthat over the first four months

(06:54):
of the year, fashion sales havedropped by just over 5%, which
is better than last year wherethey dropped over 6%, but it's
still, you know, pulling overallsales in our high streets down
by a long way.
In fact, other people, you knowpeople have also pulled back on
other spending.
You know, food and drink,general retail, which is
department stores, health andbeauty, beauty all of those have

(07:16):
seen bigger reductions overthese four months than the last
four months of the four monthslast year.

Speaker 1 (07:20):
so people are generally quite cautious because
we're just uncertain aboutwhere the future is, what the
future is going to hold for usso kind of same summary as some
previous episodes people arecautious, we're spending less
big tickets tricky if that'swhat you're trying to sell.
I suppose the one thing thatwe've probably not seen come
through yet and it'd beinteresting how and if it does

(07:43):
is april.
End of april was the first timeemployers had to pay the new
national living wage and the niincreased contributions.
So maybe may might be too soonjune, july, august we might see
some impact of that where, ifthis sales and footfall train
continues, that's, that's reallydouble whammy, because costs

(08:03):
have gone up and my sales haveplateaued or gone down
absolutely, absolutely.

Speaker 2 (08:08):
And but the positive thing will be that people will
probably have some feeling, alittle bit more confidence about
the impact of that onthemselves, because I think
that's created a few shockwavesamongst employees.
You know, will their employer,you know, contract the workforce
?
Will they lose their jobsbecause they can't afford to pay
the increase in I?
So if we can get beyond that, Ithink people might feel a

(08:29):
little bit more confident.
Although PWC do say that youknow a low, a lowering of
consumer sentiment actuallyprecursors a change of behavior
six months ahead.
So they say they've typicallyseen that when consumer
sentiment declines we see thatchange of behavior in six months
.
So they seem to say that it wasa precursor to even worse

(08:51):
trading, which doesn't soundparticularly encouraging,
particularly as then we'll bevirtually at christmas yeah,
okay, well, we'll deal with thatwhen we get the figures
hopefully there's some sunshine,bright news in the sky, but
yeah, it'd be interesting to seehow, um the unemployment
figures are tracking as well.

Speaker 1 (09:09):
As we get into kind of three months post national
living wage, I have a a sneakyfeeling that that may start to
rise, because people have tomake difficult decisions based
on trading.

Speaker 2 (09:21):
Yes, absolutely.
You know.
The things like the cyberattacks in retail have created
uncertainty as well.
That's sort of you know, makingthe ground a little bit rocky
for retailers as well.
I mean, the cost for M&S, forexample, is 300 million, I think
, as we speak today.

Speaker 1 (09:38):
Yeah, there's different figures being bandied
around, but I mean, clearly it'sbeen huge from a, I suppose, an
emotional point of view for thecolleagues and all the people
trying to fix it, and then froma hard cash point of view, from
losing sales, and then from acustomer point of view of
there'll be sympathy up to apoint but then people will have
to shop elsewhere if they can'tget the goods yeah, and also, of

(09:59):
course, m&s and other retailerswill be now looking at their
own systems quite critically andthinking do we need to increase
our expenditure oncybersecurity, which, of course,
has to be taken from somewhereelse on their balance sheet?

Speaker 2 (10:13):
So it's, you know, it's robbing Peter to pay Paul,
but they need to make sure theycan trade, and you know this is
a worst-case scenario for M&S,isn't it really yeah?

Speaker 1 (10:24):
it's a shot across the bows for other companies,
isn't it If they've kicked itdown the road?
If it's not important, I'm sureit's important in most
organizations.
But yeah, I suspect there'sbeen some interesting senior
executive conversations in lotsof boardrooms from the IT
department pushing for thosethings to get fast-tracked,
reviewed.
Um, you know, increasing budgetas you say, but there's not not
a bottomless pit.
So, yeah, interesting if, ifthere's any more or how that

(10:49):
pans out, or if this was justreally a wake-up call.
Um, you know they've gotcritical press and the people
that have done it and m&s havegot some relatively good press
in that and some of the co-opside of it.
Yeah, it's whether this is asustained thing or it's really
just a wake-up call and a PRstunt to show no one's safe.

Speaker 2 (11:09):
Absolutely, absolutely.

Speaker 1 (11:11):
We'll pause there.
I always say this at the end ofthese.
Hopefully we'll be back nextmonth with some good news.
We'll see it will have beensunny in May.
We know that at the time ofrecording.
That maybe helps us feel alittle bit better and buy some
slightly different things.
But yeah, I think that again,the sentiment is lots of
uncertainty.
People aren't sure andtherefore they don't spend.

Speaker 2 (11:34):
No, no, I mean it's a no penalty thing to do is hold
back on your spending.
You don't have to incur anypenalty if you just don't spend
any money absolutely great tospeak, as always, and we'll
catch up next month.
Great, look forward to it.