In this episode, Wade Pfau and Alex Murguia review 2024, focusing on the discrepancies between market predictions and actual outcomes. They discuss the impact of prognostications on investment decisions and highlight the unpredictability of markets, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective in financial planning. Their conversation discusses the complexities of investing, emphasizing the futility of forecasting market trends and the importance of capturing market returns. They explore various investment strategies, including the significance of risk tolerance, the role of international investing, and the ongoing debate between value and growth stocks. The discussion highlights the necessity of diversification and maintaining a long-term perspective in investment decisions, especially in light of recent market performances and economic indicators. Listen now to learn more!
Takeaways
- The importance of learning from past market predictions.
- Prognostications can significantly influence investment decisions.
- Historical performance of the S&P 500 shows the unpredictability of forecasts.
- Financial education often contradicts the reality of market forecasting.
- A historical average return may be a more reliable guide than expert forecasts. Successful investing doesn't rely on forecasting.
- Discipline in capturing market returns leads to better long-term outcomes.
- International investing still holds value despite recent underperformance.
- Value stocks have not fundamentally deteriorated despite recent trends.
- Diversification across asset classes is crucial for risk management.
- Recent market highs do not guarantee future downturns.
Chapters
00:00 Year in Review: Lessons for 2025 07:34 Prognostications and Market Predictions 18:07 The Unpredictability of Markets 19:20 The Fallacy of Forecasting in Investing 20:31 The Importance of Capturing Market Returns 22:20 Risk Tolerance and Investment Strategies 25:22 Market Trends and Economic Indicators 28:13 The Role of International Investing 32:28 Understanding Value vs. Growth Investing 36:37 The Future of Small Cap and Value Stocks 48:37 Conclusion: Diversification and Long-Term Outlook
Links
The Retirement Planning Guidebook: 2nd Edition has just been updated for 2025! Visit your preferred book retailer or simply click here to order your copy today: https://www.wadepfau.com/books/
This episode is sponsored by McLean Asset Management. Visit https://www.mcleanam.com/retirement-income-planning-llm/ to download McLean’s free eBook, “Retirement Income Planning”
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com