September 4, 2023 • 26 mins
A tough but honest look at the current state of hollywood and what it REALLY means for writers looking to build a career in the film industry.
In this episode we explore the prospects for an industry screenwriting career given:
- The WGA strike which is already beyond 100 Days
- The reality that AI is everywhere and GROWING
- The strike which is taking food off of the plates of hardworking creatives
- The WGA said the AMPTPs proposal was playing games and they are NOT with it
Sounds to me like the Hollywood we know is dead in the water and it’s only going to get worse. In this episode, I dive into why then share my predictions and what ACTIONS you can an take to protect your career dreams IMMEDIATELY.
Click the link for the FREE position paper mentioned in this episode:
FREE State of Hollywood Report
Powered by The WordSmith Writer's Lab and the PWR Writer App, the world's first end-to-end screenwriting process that fits in your pocket.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Unknown (00:00):
Another thing I want you to think about is that not
(00:02):
every rider just like not everybelow the line employee is going
to come back to Hollywood, whenthe strike is over, some won't
be invited back, because one ofthe things that happens is when
we flatten organizations, wetend to get rid of those that we
didn't really want to have inour fold in the first place. But
maybe we didn't have a clear wayto cut ties, right. So those
(00:23):
people might not be invitedback, then you've got some
people who might have beeninvited back, but they got a
sour taste in their mouth, sothey don't want to come back.
And then you got those fewpeople that might actually come
back, right. So that means theremight be a few opportunities for
new writers, then you've gotwriters who aspire to be in
Hollywood, and can afford totake less. Those writers are the
(00:45):
ones that are going to be givenopportunities. One of the things
I want you to understandthe big question is this. How do
screenwriters like us connect tothe people, the resources, and
information that allow us totell our stories, make powerful
movies and leave the legacy thatour community deserves? These
(01:06):
are the burning questions thatI'm going to explore week after
week. And I want to welcome youto the script, your success
podcast,Writers have been asking me
offline what I think about thewriter strike AI and the future
of the industry. Well, here'sthe thing, what I'm about to
tell you might make you mad, butI would rather see you mad than
(01:29):
left behind. So I'm going togive it to you straight. Some of
what I'm going to tell you isgoing to feel uncomfortable to
hear, but I'm giving you theinformation that you absolutely
need if you are an aspiringblack writer who wants to work
in Hollywood.
Based on current information, weare beyond 100 days of the WGA
strike. That's the Writers Guildof America. Beyond that, we know
(01:51):
that AI is everywhere fromgrocery stores and emails and
copywriting, art, medicine,finance, right so nobody is safe
from the reaches of AI. Thethird thing is that insiders
have been telling me thatHollywood studios, and even the
major streamers that we thinkare making big bucks are
literally hemorrhaging money.
Now, I don't know how true thatis. But this is just information
(02:14):
that I'm hearing on the streetshow. Okay, then beyond that,
and I know this for a fact to betrue. Below the line workers I'm
talking gaffers and grips andhair and makeup. All the support
crew members that it takes todevelop a television show or
feature film have been put inthis holding pattern, because of
both the WGA strike as well asthe SAG-AFTRA strike. Because
(02:39):
both writers and actors are onstrike for the first time in
more than 15 years. And becauseboth groups have gone on strike,
production has pretty muchhalted. Now there are some
smaller productions that arestill being allowed. But the for
the most part, everything thatwill be done on a major level
that these people use for theirbread and butter has been wiped
(03:01):
away. And there's no tellingwhen it's going to come back.
Then just as late as August 22of this year, the AMPTP which is
the alliance of motion picture.
And television producers putforth a proposal to the WGA. Now
the WGA immediately shut it downsaying it was disingenuous and
(03:24):
employ for from the studios toget writers to to cave to their
demands, as opposed to it beinga sincere attempt to compromise
and bring this strike to an end.
I say all that to say, Hollywoodas we know it is dead in the
water, and it's gonna get a lotworse before it gets better. And
(03:45):
here's why. Now, this isn'teverything that the WGA is
concerned about and trying tonegotiate with a MPTP. But these
are the biggest hot buttontopics.
The number one topic of the WGAstrike is residuals. So the WGA
is saying that studios havechanged the residual model. And
writers are making pennies onthe dollar, as opposed to what
(04:07):
they really should be gettingfor their hard work.
The second thing, which isprobably a major concern for a
lot of people these days, isthat writers don't want to be
replaced by AI. Now they're notcompletely opposed to the use of
AI. But they will likeartificial intelligence to be
used as a tool to support theirwriting efforts, not as a
(04:27):
replacement for their work andcreativity.
The third thing that the guildis looking to do is they want
mandatory staffing andtelevision writers rooms, and
they are looking forwardduration of employment
guarantees because this is howwriters make their bread and
butter.
And lastly, the WGA is reallyadvocating for riding teams to
(04:50):
receive pension and health carebenefits. Now those things don't
seem unreasonable. Now, thatmight not be an exhaustive list
of concerns that the WGA has,but I can promise you. If those
particular concerns are notaddressed, I don't see the
writer strike ending anytimesoon. And that's really
unfortunate for a lot ofdifferent reasons.
Now, one of the first questionsthat a lot of people have been
(05:11):
asking is, how did residualsbecome a part of the process in
the first place? Well, based onthe research that I did, in
1953, writers went on strike andwon the contractual right to be
paid residuals in place ofownership of scripts that they
have written. Now, I'm reallycurious to know, what was the
(05:33):
state of affairs before that1953 writer strike. But what
this did is this gave writersthe contractual right to be paid
a residual, meaning a portion ofthe monies earned every time a
television program or made forTV movie was rebroadcast. So
what that means in today's worldis if I worked on something in
(05:56):
1963, and they decided to do areboot of it, and I don't mean
by by reboot, I don't mean rereshoot and all that. I mean,
they decided to re air it. Andit's exactly the episode that I
wrote, I get paid from that. Andevery other writer that worked
on that show would also get paidfor it every single time. So
(06:17):
think about shows like friends,Seinfeld, living, single movie
show, right, all thosefavorites. The writers that
worked on those shows will getpaid every single time. Those
shows are rebroadcast.
Then, we've got AI and techadvancements. I have writer
friends that have createdtrailers, full feature length
(06:38):
films, they've created conceptshort films in a matter of one
or two days, using different AItools. The point of this is, AI
is really changing the way thatcreativity happens. And I don't
know that we're gonna get awayfrom that. But like I promised,
the reasons that Hollywood won'tsurvive like it is our this.
(07:01):
First and foremost, I talkedabout those below the line
workers that are heavilyaffected by the WGA and sag
AFTRA strikes. Now I'm notblaming actors or writers, I
want to be really clear aboutthat. What I'm saying is that,
because actors and writers havedemanded that they be treated
better and gone on strike,everybody else down the road,
(07:21):
below the line employees have nowork to do, because there can be
no production without a script.
And there can be no productionwithout an actor. So be really
clear about that. That meansthat there's upstream activity,
and downstream impacts. So shitrolls downhill, everybody is
affected by this strike, inshort, right? Okay, but here's
the reality, people have to finda way to put food on the table,
(07:43):
pay the rent, pay the lights,keep the car, no pay all this
thing, right. So that's aneconomic disaster, my heart goes
out to anybody that's affectedby this strike.
Below the line workers aresuffering, they can't do
anything to affect the outcome.
And that means a lot of peopleacross a lot of functions of our
current Hollywood model aregoing to be forced to leave
(08:06):
Hollywood, so that they can findwork to take care of themselves
and their families. Now, some ofthose people might choose to go
the indie film production route,but I can guarantee you, a lot
of that talent is gonna go intoregular Degler corporate jobs,
or they'll do something elsefreelance, and they won't touch
(08:27):
another movie so long as theylive, because this is this
strike. And the length of timethat is taken, is really leaving
a sour taste in a lot ofpeople's mouths. In fact, to
that end, even consumers arewondering when new say New
Seasons of series are comingout. And then they're realizing,
Oh, shit, they're not comingout. Because until the strikes
have been addressed, and they'rein, nobody can produce another
(08:50):
TV show, they can't produceanother movie. So now content is
also going to be affected right.
Now, the second reason thatHollywood as it is is not going
to survive, is because AI is notgoing anywhere, anytime soon.
And I think both writers andstudios know this. But what's
(09:12):
happening is that while writersare fighting for the right to
not be replaced by AI, we've gotthe major players in the game,
one of them being Netflix,gearing up to make AI a major
part of their business model.
One of the things that Netflixdid while they were in the midst
of this strike, is they boasteda $900,000 ai specialist
position. Now, you don't evenwant to imagine what that means
(09:36):
in terms of how much contentthey can they can crank out and
how quickly they can crank itout. Right. But the reality is
this, if you doubt the impact oftechnology and the advances of
AI, think about how we used tohave cashiers in every retail
store. There was no such thingas online shopping. And now
(10:00):
90% of what we purchase wepurchase online. And when we go
into physical stores, the brickand mortar stores, now we're
checking ourselves out there. Soscanners, Amazon has methods
where you don't even have to gothrough anything, you just kind
of scan, scan, scan, and youwalk out and then your your card
is charged. So my point is thatcashiers also at one point
(10:20):
thought that they wereirreplaceable, right? Nobody can
do what a human can do when itcomes down to doing these
calculations, so forth and soon. And then technology prove
them wrong. Now, I'm not sayingthat AI can or should replace
writers, but we need to berealistic about the power of
technology. And not just thetechnology itself. But how
(10:40):
people in positions of power arechoosing to use technology, to
save money to streamlineprocesses, and so forth. And
here's the thing.
Oh, that's a lot, y'all. Evenwithout AI as a tool. One thing
we have to keep in mind, andDisney showed us this is that
(11:00):
directors and producers, arestorytellers, just the same as
writers are. Now they may not beas good as we are. But one of
the things that I haverecognized is that nobody's
actually looking for the greatAmerican story anymore. People
just want content to consume. Sothey can go about their day and
feel entertained, right. Soremember, if they if it doesn't
(11:22):
necessarily take a writer tocreate a show, that means it
doesn't necessarily take awriter to make money we saw that
was one division produced byDisney. And they were taught
there was talk inside theirstudios about having director
lead writers rooms, if you will,okay. Now, here's the other part
about it that I don't want youto lose sight of is a really
(11:44):
touching point, especially forblack writers and aspiring
screenwriters.
Even when the strike ends,Hollywood is going to be a mere
shell of what it used to be. Butmy question, then I want you to
think about is, is that all bad.
And where I'm going with this isthat we know that for every
(12:06):
issue, the general rightistpopulation faces, it's a little
bit tougher for writers of colorfor black writers. Right now,
we've been seeing some recentsuccesses. But by and large,
there's a McKinsey study thatcame out in 2020, that shows
that black people still are whokeeps movie theaters and
Hollywood afloat because wesupport movies, we support TV
(12:30):
shows, but we are not in thoseboardrooms, we are not in
positions of power, we are notmaking the main decisions. And
that's going to be an evenbigger issue, once Hollywood has
collapsed, to address thechanges that come out of the
strike. And right now we don'teven know how far reaching those
changes are going to be. Right.
That means, in addition todealing with the disparities
(12:51):
that black writers already face,we're going to have a landscape
that's going to be even morecompetitive, which means they're
going to be even morelimitations is going to feel
like even more of a crabs in thebarrel kind of inexperience to
figure out how to rise to thetop and be seen, right. And
another part about this wholeHollywood model, when it comes
(13:12):
down to residuals, we alreadytalked about the originals of
residuals that came from anearlier strike, taking it out of
Hollywood, and this is whereyou're probably gonna get mad,
especially if you're a currentwriter in the WGA. I mean, no
disrespect, I just like to tellthings like they are.
If I work for Nike, and I make ashoe design,
(13:39):
residuals would be theequivalent of me expecting to
get paid every time somebodybuys that shoe, even though I
was paid a salary to design it.
Now, I'm not saying that's rightor wrong. What I am saying is
that that's the equivalent ofwhat we're dealing with when we
talk about riders and residuals,right. So every time so here's
(13:59):
an even better example. Everytime they relaunched the
Jordans, right, because Jordans,it's a classic shoe, they they
relaunch it with new colors, butthe design is the design is the
design. That would mean thatevery time they relaunched
Jordans, the person whooriginally designed them should
get paid again. I don't know ifyou agree with that model or
(14:20):
not. But that's what residualsmeans. And that's what Hollywood
is really kind of grinding to ahalt about that. Like that's the
major piece for writers. What wehave to realize is that and this
is my take this is maybe notwhat you think, but this is what
I feel about it. Our bargainingpower diminishes over time when
we think about all thechallenges that we're up
(14:41):
against. Now, that doesn't meanthat it can't happen. But here
what here's what it does mean,when the right solution isn't
the easy solution. those inpositions of power will find a
way to make things happen. Wesaw that in the steel industry
when a lot of American steeljobs went overseas, we saw that
with offshore work in the ITindustry where a lot of
(15:04):
engineering jobs and a lot ofjobs that we thought could not
be taken from Americans weregiven to those in Slovakia and
Mumbai and other countries wherelabor costs was a lot lower. We
even have virtual assistantsthat are in the Philippines and
Indonesia, because the cost ofthat work inside the United
States is more expensive. Now,I'm not saying it's right. What
I am saying is that history hastaught us what those in
(15:27):
positions of power will do whenthey are pushed against the
wall, and they need to makethings happen. Okay, so here's
the other part about it.
Like I said, we got a lot ofwriters who would love to be in
a position where they can writeand just create and see their
name on credits, right. Oneparticular Facebook group that
I'm a part of there are morethan 20,000 writers in just that
(15:53):
one group. And there are varioustalent levels. I'm talking some
that have been in the industryfor years, some that just wrote
their first logline and don'teven know how to really write a
script yet. And all all levelsof talent in between. Now,
imagine this.
What if all of those writers hada chance those who are already
(16:15):
in Hollywood, right? What if allthose writers had a chance to go
take jobs to be writing instudios or getting their feature
films read and produced? Right?
Do you think they jumped at thatchance? Or would they say no,
because someone that they don'tknow, is disgruntled about how
they've been treated inHollywood? That's the real
question that we've got to startthinking about because, and by
(16:36):
the way, I'm not telling anybodyto cross picket lines, I'm not
telling anybody to become ascammer. But this is the reality
that we're dealing with.
Because, truthfully, speaking,I've heard many writers
complained over the years thatpeople who have gotten into the
WGA, people who have made it tothe top in Hollywood, kind of
(16:57):
treat them like they're lessthan worthy of those same
opportunities. And the writerstrike first started happening,
a lot of communication startedcoming out, especially on social
media saying, support the WGA,don't cross the picket line,
don't meet producers, don't sellyour scripts, don't put your
scripts. And if you do, then youwon't be eligible for WGA
(17:18):
membership in the future. Andstand with your brothers because
we're doing this for yourfuture.
heart goes out to thoseindividuals, because we
understand that unity is power.
What I'm saying is that many,many people have had an
experience where they weretreated unkindly by writers who
(17:38):
had made it. And then so thesentiment is, where's that
energy that you would give mewhen you were on top of the
world when you were getting paidthe way you want to, you want to
get paid when you were gettingthe writing assignments, you
treated me like I didn't deserveyour time a day. And they're
saying things like, keep thatsame energy. I'm not saying I
agree or disagree, I'm simplypointing out that this is what
(18:00):
we are dealing with, in today'sclimate. Right. Another thing I
want you to think about is thatnot every writer just like not
every below the line employee isgoing to come back to Hollywood,
when the strike is over, somewon't be invited back, because
one of the things that happensis when we flatten
organizations, we tend to getrid of those that we didn't
(18:20):
really want to have in our foldin the first place. But maybe we
didn't have a clear way to cutties, right. So those people
might not be invited back, thenyou got some people who might
have been invited back, but theygot a sour taste in their mouth,
so they don't want to come back.
And then you got those fewpeople that might might actually
come back, right. So that meansthere might be a few
(18:41):
opportunities for new writers,then you've got writers who
aspire to be in Hollywood, andcan afford to take lists. Those
writers are the ones that aregoing to be given opportunities
for one of the things I want youto understand that's not an
abnormal business model. Whathappens in the corporate arena,
after riffs or layoffs, is thatwhen they began to restart the
(19:02):
organization, they bring a fewexperienced people back. And
they might negotiate a lowersalary in a lot of cases because
the market dictates that theycan, that's capitalism, right?
But then the other thing thathappens is they start to bring
in junior level talent, right?
And then they build those peopleup, because those people
costless, and those people arehungry for the opportunities. So
(19:25):
they're open and willing to tryit out and give their careers a
chance. Right. This again, iswhat happens in the corporate
arena. So my guess is thatsomething very similar is going
to happen in Hollywood. If youstill with me, you might get
really, really mad at me aboutthis part. This is what a lot of
people think about this is whatI've heard in private
(19:47):
conversations, but a lot ofpeople don't say it out loud.
The fact of the matter is thatwe don't get to decide how
somebody pays us what happens isIs we see an opportunity that's
presented face value.
Either that opportunity worksfor us, or it doesn't. If it
(20:09):
doesn't work for us, we move on,we find something that is a
better alignment with our goalswith our financial needs, so
forth and so on. The WGA has puta lot of those elements in
place. So what happens is, onceyou're eligible to join the
union, you automatically aremoved into this different
echelon of earnings and rightsand contractual benefits and
(20:35):
things of that nature. Thereality is that there are so
many probably too many skilledwriters, and filmmakers, for
anybody to dig their heels in,as opposed to thinking about the
long game. Right. So one of thethings about negotiations is
that I, I personally, have foundnegotiations always work better
(20:57):
when we can find a win win,right? Does the state of the
economy and the environment andall these things, all these
things that I've been talkingabout, for the last few minutes,
support? The WGA? Gettingeverything they want it exactly
like they want? Maybe, maybenot? Does the environment and
all these different factorssupport the ANP, TP and studios
(21:20):
and all that, getting exactlywhat they want, and not giving
it all to the writers and theactors?
Probably less so. But the answerhas to be somewhere in the
middle. Otherwise, one side isalways going to be fighting. And
then we're going to findourselves in this contract
(21:40):
negotiation strike polls overand over and over right. Now, my
prediction is that there will besome adjustments to the
residuals model, the use of AIis definitely going to be
considered it has to be becausewe already recognize for better
or worse, it's not goinganywhere. And then benefits when
(22:03):
it comes down to healthcarebenefits.
And PTP, give those writers somebenefits. Everybody deserves
healthcare, right? writers roomrequirements will be reviewed.
And I don't think the strike isgoing to end unless these things
are absolutely addressed. Butwhat it will also mean if we
look at trickle down economicsand history and other
industries, is the end usersthat's us, the consumers, we are
(22:28):
going to face highersubscription costs for the
streaming services and theplatforms that we want to see
our content on. Why is that anissue because the traditional
model of television was that wehad 32nd spots 62nd spots where
commercial ads were sold. Thatmeans major corporations, Nike,
(22:49):
for Cadillac, you name it, theysold, they purchased rather, at
spots, so that they could sharetheir products and services with
the with the American public orthe public at large. With
streaming services. Many ofthose platforms have commercial
free models, which means you wemust be willing to pay that
(23:12):
premium to not see those ads,right. But my guess is that ads
are gonna be coming into play.
More and more. We've alreadystarted seeing it on peacock on
Hulu, on Apple TV, so forth andso on on Macs, we're starting to
see subscription cost pluscommercials. Now, my guess my
question is, how long willconsumers accept that they have
(23:33):
to pay to see TV and watchcommercials because we've been
spoiled with Netflix, you get toturn on the on the app, watch
what you want to watch, no ads,binge and enjoy yourself. But
Netflix and Paramount andpeacock and NBC and ESPN and
Disney. They can't afford tokeep going at that rate. Right.
(23:55):
The next thing that I'mimagining is going to happen
though, is that movie theatercosts are going to continue to
rise. We already know that movietheaters are closing down we see
the box office numbers aretumbling and there doesn't seem
to be an end in sight. Thattells me that movie goers are
tired of cookie cutter moviesthat don't really hit the spot
(24:15):
anymore. They're not really asengaging. They're predictable.
They're, you know, in a box,kind of sad. The cat monitor
right? Yes, pun was intended.
So here is the opportunityfor individuals that still have
a desire to become a successfulfilmmaker or screenwriter.
(24:37):
We can look at all of this andsee that there's a silver lining
to this cloud. There's a way tobe made, despite the obstacles
that we can see in theenvironment, all the things
outside of our control, right.
And the reason that there's anopportunity is because depending
on how you look at the world,you can kind of see where you
might be able to slide in again.
(24:58):
I'm not telling you to go onBe a scammer and break the
strike break the union lies. I'mnot telling you to do that. But
what I am saying is that thereis yet an opportunity to do
things like creating a brand foryourself, learning how to live
beyond just on the page, right?
If you can develop powerfulcontent and learn how to market
(25:20):
that content to an audience thatloves you and becomes loyal to
your shows, you can create anempire, just like Tyler Perry
did, because of the businessmodel that he created over the
last 20 years, right.
And others have also blazed atrail just like Tyler Perry, you
can look up there dozens anddozens of examples. But this is
(25:40):
not about those other writers.
Now, that's the good, bad andugly when it comes down to why
Hollywood is dead in the waterand why it's never going to look
exactly like it does now or whatwe remember in days past. But if
you are ready to carve your ownfuture, get over the hump, find
the opportunities within thischaos, then I would love to
share with you a position paperthat not only highlights these
problems and what to do aboutthem. But it tells you how you
(26:03):
can build a brand, you can startto monetize your creativity. And
you can do all of this whetheryou decide to be a part of
Hollywood, or you choose to goyour own route. So if you want
that free position paper, clickthe link in my bio if you're
watching this via social media,or if you're listening to this
podcast, then go ahead and clickshow notes. So you can get that
free download to talk about thestate of Hollywood, how it's
(26:25):
dead in the water and how we canstill find success if we are
willing to look beyond the chaosto how we can use our
creativity.
Another thing I want you to think about is that not
(00:02):
every rider just like not everybelow the line employee is going
to come back to Hollywood, whenthe strike is over, some won't
be invited back, because one ofthe things that happens is when
we flatten organizations, wetend to get rid of those that we
didn't really want to have inour fold in the first place. But
maybe we didn't have a clear wayto cut ties, right. So those
(00:23):
people might not be invitedback, then you've got some
people who might have beeninvited back, but they got a
sour taste in their mouth, sothey don't want to come back.
And then you got those fewpeople that might actually come
back, right. So that means theremight be a few opportunities for
new writers, then you've gotwriters who aspire to be in
Hollywood, and can afford totake less. Those writers are the
(00:45):
ones that are going to be givenopportunities. One of the things
I want you to understandthe big question is this. How do
screenwriters like us connect tothe people, the resources, and
information that allow us totell our stories, make powerful
movies and leave the legacy thatour community deserves? These
(01:06):
are the burning questions thatI'm going to explore week after
week. And I want to welcome youto the script, your success
podcast,Writers have been asking me
offline what I think about thewriter strike AI and the future
of the industry. Well, here'sthe thing, what I'm about to
tell you might make you mad, butI would rather see you mad than
(01:29):
left behind. So I'm going togive it to you straight. Some of
what I'm going to tell you isgoing to feel uncomfortable to
hear, but I'm giving you theinformation that you absolutely
need if you are an aspiringblack writer who wants to work
in Hollywood.
Based on current information, weare beyond 100 days of the WGA
strike. That's the Writers Guildof America. Beyond that, we know
(01:51):
that AI is everywhere fromgrocery stores and emails and
copywriting, art, medicine,finance, right so nobody is safe
from the reaches of AI. Thethird thing is that insiders
have been telling me thatHollywood studios, and even the
major streamers that we thinkare making big bucks are
literally hemorrhaging money.
Now, I don't know how true thatis. But this is just information
(02:14):
that I'm hearing on the streetshow. Okay, then beyond that,
and I know this for a fact to betrue. Below the line workers I'm
talking gaffers and grips andhair and makeup. All the support
crew members that it takes todevelop a television show or
feature film have been put inthis holding pattern, because of
both the WGA strike as well asthe SAG-AFTRA strike. Because
(02:39):
both writers and actors are onstrike for the first time in
more than 15 years. And becauseboth groups have gone on strike,
production has pretty muchhalted. Now there are some
smaller productions that arestill being allowed. But the for
the most part, everything thatwill be done on a major level
that these people use for theirbread and butter has been wiped
(03:01):
away. And there's no tellingwhen it's going to come back.
Then just as late as August 22of this year, the AMPTP which is
the alliance of motion picture.
And television producers putforth a proposal to the WGA. Now
the WGA immediately shut it downsaying it was disingenuous and
(03:24):
employ for from the studios toget writers to to cave to their
demands, as opposed to it beinga sincere attempt to compromise
and bring this strike to an end.
I say all that to say, Hollywoodas we know it is dead in the
water, and it's gonna get a lotworse before it gets better. And
(03:45):
here's why. Now, this isn'teverything that the WGA is
concerned about and trying tonegotiate with a MPTP. But these
are the biggest hot buttontopics.
The number one topic of the WGAstrike is residuals. So the WGA
is saying that studios havechanged the residual model. And
writers are making pennies onthe dollar, as opposed to what
(04:07):
they really should be gettingfor their hard work.
The second thing, which isprobably a major concern for a
lot of people these days, isthat writers don't want to be
replaced by AI. Now they're notcompletely opposed to the use of
AI. But they will likeartificial intelligence to be
used as a tool to support theirwriting efforts, not as a
(04:27):
replacement for their work andcreativity.
The third thing that the guildis looking to do is they want
mandatory staffing andtelevision writers rooms, and
they are looking forwardduration of employment
guarantees because this is howwriters make their bread and
butter.
And lastly, the WGA is reallyadvocating for riding teams to
(04:50):
receive pension and health carebenefits. Now those things don't
seem unreasonable. Now, thatmight not be an exhaustive list
of concerns that the WGA has,but I can promise you. If those
particular concerns are notaddressed, I don't see the
writer strike ending anytimesoon. And that's really
unfortunate for a lot ofdifferent reasons.
Now, one of the first questionsthat a lot of people have been
(05:11):
asking is, how did residualsbecome a part of the process in
the first place? Well, based onthe research that I did, in
1953, writers went on strike andwon the contractual right to be
paid residuals in place ofownership of scripts that they
have written. Now, I'm reallycurious to know, what was the
(05:33):
state of affairs before that1953 writer strike. But what
this did is this gave writersthe contractual right to be paid
a residual, meaning a portion ofthe monies earned every time a
television program or made forTV movie was rebroadcast. So
what that means in today's worldis if I worked on something in
(05:56):
1963, and they decided to do areboot of it, and I don't mean
by by reboot, I don't mean rereshoot and all that. I mean,
they decided to re air it. Andit's exactly the episode that I
wrote, I get paid from that. Andevery other writer that worked
on that show would also get paidfor it every single time. So
(06:17):
think about shows like friends,Seinfeld, living, single movie
show, right, all thosefavorites. The writers that
worked on those shows will getpaid every single time. Those
shows are rebroadcast.
Then, we've got AI and techadvancements. I have writer
friends that have createdtrailers, full feature length
(06:38):
films, they've created conceptshort films in a matter of one
or two days, using different AItools. The point of this is, AI
is really changing the way thatcreativity happens. And I don't
know that we're gonna get awayfrom that. But like I promised,
the reasons that Hollywood won'tsurvive like it is our this.
(07:01):
First and foremost, I talkedabout those below the line
workers that are heavilyaffected by the WGA and sag
AFTRA strikes. Now I'm notblaming actors or writers, I
want to be really clear aboutthat. What I'm saying is that,
because actors and writers havedemanded that they be treated
better and gone on strike,everybody else down the road,
(07:21):
below the line employees have nowork to do, because there can be
no production without a script.
And there can be no productionwithout an actor. So be really
clear about that. That meansthat there's upstream activity,
and downstream impacts. So shitrolls downhill, everybody is
affected by this strike, inshort, right? Okay, but here's
the reality, people have to finda way to put food on the table,
(07:43):
pay the rent, pay the lights,keep the car, no pay all this
thing, right. So that's aneconomic disaster, my heart goes
out to anybody that's affectedby this strike.
Below the line workers aresuffering, they can't do
anything to affect the outcome.
And that means a lot of peopleacross a lot of functions of our
current Hollywood model aregoing to be forced to leave
(08:06):
Hollywood, so that they can findwork to take care of themselves
and their families. Now, some ofthose people might choose to go
the indie film production route,but I can guarantee you, a lot
of that talent is gonna go intoregular Degler corporate jobs,
or they'll do something elsefreelance, and they won't touch
(08:27):
another movie so long as theylive, because this is this
strike. And the length of timethat is taken, is really leaving
a sour taste in a lot ofpeople's mouths. In fact, to
that end, even consumers arewondering when new say New
Seasons of series are comingout. And then they're realizing,
Oh, shit, they're not comingout. Because until the strikes
have been addressed, and they'rein, nobody can produce another
(08:50):
TV show, they can't produceanother movie. So now content is
also going to be affected right.
Now, the second reason thatHollywood as it is is not going
to survive, is because AI is notgoing anywhere, anytime soon.
And I think both writers andstudios know this. But what's
(09:12):
happening is that while writersare fighting for the right to
not be replaced by AI, we've gotthe major players in the game,
one of them being Netflix,gearing up to make AI a major
part of their business model.
One of the things that Netflixdid while they were in the midst
of this strike, is they boasteda $900,000 ai specialist
position. Now, you don't evenwant to imagine what that means
(09:36):
in terms of how much contentthey can they can crank out and
how quickly they can crank itout. Right. But the reality is
this, if you doubt the impact oftechnology and the advances of
AI, think about how we used tohave cashiers in every retail
store. There was no such thingas online shopping. And now
(10:00):
90% of what we purchase wepurchase online. And when we go
into physical stores, the brickand mortar stores, now we're
checking ourselves out there. Soscanners, Amazon has methods
where you don't even have to gothrough anything, you just kind
of scan, scan, scan, and youwalk out and then your your card
is charged. So my point is thatcashiers also at one point
(10:20):
thought that they wereirreplaceable, right? Nobody can
do what a human can do when itcomes down to doing these
calculations, so forth and soon. And then technology prove
them wrong. Now, I'm not sayingthat AI can or should replace
writers, but we need to berealistic about the power of
technology. And not just thetechnology itself. But how
(10:40):
people in positions of power arechoosing to use technology, to
save money to streamlineprocesses, and so forth. And
here's the thing.
Oh, that's a lot, y'all. Evenwithout AI as a tool. One thing
we have to keep in mind, andDisney showed us this is that
(11:00):
directors and producers, arestorytellers, just the same as
writers are. Now they may not beas good as we are. But one of
the things that I haverecognized is that nobody's
actually looking for the greatAmerican story anymore. People
just want content to consume. Sothey can go about their day and
feel entertained, right. Soremember, if they if it doesn't
(11:22):
necessarily take a writer tocreate a show, that means it
doesn't necessarily take awriter to make money we saw that
was one division produced byDisney. And they were taught
there was talk inside theirstudios about having director
lead writers rooms, if you will,okay. Now, here's the other part
about it that I don't want youto lose sight of is a really
(11:44):
touching point, especially forblack writers and aspiring
screenwriters.
Even when the strike ends,Hollywood is going to be a mere
shell of what it used to be. Butmy question, then I want you to
think about is, is that all bad.
And where I'm going with this isthat we know that for every
(12:06):
issue, the general rightistpopulation faces, it's a little
bit tougher for writers of colorfor black writers. Right now,
we've been seeing some recentsuccesses. But by and large,
there's a McKinsey study thatcame out in 2020, that shows
that black people still are whokeeps movie theaters and
Hollywood afloat because wesupport movies, we support TV
(12:30):
shows, but we are not in thoseboardrooms, we are not in
positions of power, we are notmaking the main decisions. And
that's going to be an evenbigger issue, once Hollywood has
collapsed, to address thechanges that come out of the
strike. And right now we don'teven know how far reaching those
changes are going to be. Right.
That means, in addition todealing with the disparities
(12:51):
that black writers already face,we're going to have a landscape
that's going to be even morecompetitive, which means they're
going to be even morelimitations is going to feel
like even more of a crabs in thebarrel kind of inexperience to
figure out how to rise to thetop and be seen, right. And
another part about this wholeHollywood model, when it comes
(13:12):
down to residuals, we alreadytalked about the originals of
residuals that came from anearlier strike, taking it out of
Hollywood, and this is whereyou're probably gonna get mad,
especially if you're a currentwriter in the WGA. I mean, no
disrespect, I just like to tellthings like they are.
If I work for Nike, and I make ashoe design,
(13:39):
residuals would be theequivalent of me expecting to
get paid every time somebodybuys that shoe, even though I
was paid a salary to design it.
Now, I'm not saying that's rightor wrong. What I am saying is
that that's the equivalent ofwhat we're dealing with when we
talk about riders and residuals,right. So every time so here's
(13:59):
an even better example. Everytime they relaunched the
Jordans, right, because Jordans,it's a classic shoe, they they
relaunch it with new colors, butthe design is the design is the
design. That would mean thatevery time they relaunched
Jordans, the person whooriginally designed them should
get paid again. I don't know ifyou agree with that model or
(14:20):
not. But that's what residualsmeans. And that's what Hollywood
is really kind of grinding to ahalt about that. Like that's the
major piece for writers. What wehave to realize is that and this
is my take this is maybe notwhat you think, but this is what
I feel about it. Our bargainingpower diminishes over time when
we think about all thechallenges that we're up
(14:41):
against. Now, that doesn't meanthat it can't happen. But here
what here's what it does mean,when the right solution isn't
the easy solution. those inpositions of power will find a
way to make things happen. Wesaw that in the steel industry
when a lot of American steeljobs went overseas, we saw that
with offshore work in the ITindustry where a lot of
(15:04):
engineering jobs and a lot ofjobs that we thought could not
be taken from Americans weregiven to those in Slovakia and
Mumbai and other countries wherelabor costs was a lot lower. We
even have virtual assistantsthat are in the Philippines and
Indonesia, because the cost ofthat work inside the United
States is more expensive. Now,I'm not saying it's right. What
I am saying is that history hastaught us what those in
(15:27):
positions of power will do whenthey are pushed against the
wall, and they need to makethings happen. Okay, so here's
the other part about it.
Like I said, we got a lot ofwriters who would love to be in
a position where they can writeand just create and see their
name on credits, right. Oneparticular Facebook group that
I'm a part of there are morethan 20,000 writers in just that
(15:53):
one group. And there are varioustalent levels. I'm talking some
that have been in the industryfor years, some that just wrote
their first logline and don'teven know how to really write a
script yet. And all all levelsof talent in between. Now,
imagine this.
What if all of those writers hada chance those who are already
(16:15):
in Hollywood, right? What if allthose writers had a chance to go
take jobs to be writing instudios or getting their feature
films read and produced? Right?
Do you think they jumped at thatchance? Or would they say no,
because someone that they don'tknow, is disgruntled about how
they've been treated inHollywood? That's the real
question that we've got to startthinking about because, and by
(16:36):
the way, I'm not telling anybodyto cross picket lines, I'm not
telling anybody to become ascammer. But this is the reality
that we're dealing with.
Because, truthfully, speaking,I've heard many writers
complained over the years thatpeople who have gotten into the
WGA, people who have made it tothe top in Hollywood, kind of
(16:57):
treat them like they're lessthan worthy of those same
opportunities. And the writerstrike first started happening,
a lot of communication startedcoming out, especially on social
media saying, support the WGA,don't cross the picket line,
don't meet producers, don't sellyour scripts, don't put your
scripts. And if you do, then youwon't be eligible for WGA
(17:18):
membership in the future. Andstand with your brothers because
we're doing this for yourfuture.
heart goes out to thoseindividuals, because we
understand that unity is power.
What I'm saying is that many,many people have had an
experience where they weretreated unkindly by writers who
(17:38):
had made it. And then so thesentiment is, where's that
energy that you would give mewhen you were on top of the
world when you were getting paidthe way you want to, you want to
get paid when you were gettingthe writing assignments, you
treated me like I didn't deserveyour time a day. And they're
saying things like, keep thatsame energy. I'm not saying I
agree or disagree, I'm simplypointing out that this is what
(18:00):
we are dealing with, in today'sclimate. Right. Another thing I
want you to think about is thatnot every writer just like not
every below the line employee isgoing to come back to Hollywood,
when the strike is over, somewon't be invited back, because
one of the things that happensis when we flatten
organizations, we tend to getrid of those that we didn't
(18:20):
really want to have in our foldin the first place. But maybe we
didn't have a clear way to cutties, right. So those people
might not be invited back, thenyou got some people who might
have been invited back, but theygot a sour taste in their mouth,
so they don't want to come back.
And then you got those fewpeople that might might actually
come back, right. So that meansthere might be a few
(18:41):
opportunities for new writers,then you've got writers who
aspire to be in Hollywood, andcan afford to take lists. Those
writers are the ones that aregoing to be given opportunities
for one of the things I want youto understand that's not an
abnormal business model. Whathappens in the corporate arena,
after riffs or layoffs, is thatwhen they began to restart the
(19:02):
organization, they bring a fewexperienced people back. And
they might negotiate a lowersalary in a lot of cases because
the market dictates that theycan, that's capitalism, right?
But then the other thing thathappens is they start to bring
in junior level talent, right?
And then they build those peopleup, because those people
costless, and those people arehungry for the opportunities. So
(19:25):
they're open and willing to tryit out and give their careers a
chance. Right. This again, iswhat happens in the corporate
arena. So my guess is thatsomething very similar is going
to happen in Hollywood. If youstill with me, you might get
really, really mad at me aboutthis part. This is what a lot of
people think about this is whatI've heard in private
(19:47):
conversations, but a lot ofpeople don't say it out loud.
The fact of the matter is thatwe don't get to decide how
somebody pays us what happens isIs we see an opportunity that's
presented face value.
Either that opportunity worksfor us, or it doesn't. If it
(20:09):
doesn't work for us, we move on,we find something that is a
better alignment with our goalswith our financial needs, so
forth and so on. The WGA has puta lot of those elements in
place. So what happens is, onceyou're eligible to join the
union, you automatically aremoved into this different
echelon of earnings and rightsand contractual benefits and
(20:35):
things of that nature. Thereality is that there are so
many probably too many skilledwriters, and filmmakers, for
anybody to dig their heels in,as opposed to thinking about the
long game. Right. So one of thethings about negotiations is
that I, I personally, have foundnegotiations always work better
(20:57):
when we can find a win win,right? Does the state of the
economy and the environment andall these things, all these
things that I've been talkingabout, for the last few minutes,
support? The WGA? Gettingeverything they want it exactly
like they want? Maybe, maybenot? Does the environment and
all these different factorssupport the ANP, TP and studios
(21:20):
and all that, getting exactlywhat they want, and not giving
it all to the writers and theactors?
Probably less so. But the answerhas to be somewhere in the
middle. Otherwise, one side isalways going to be fighting. And
then we're going to findourselves in this contract
(21:40):
negotiation strike polls overand over and over right. Now, my
prediction is that there will besome adjustments to the
residuals model, the use of AIis definitely going to be
considered it has to be becausewe already recognize for better
or worse, it's not goinganywhere. And then benefits when
(22:03):
it comes down to healthcarebenefits.
And PTP, give those writers somebenefits. Everybody deserves
healthcare, right? writers roomrequirements will be reviewed.
And I don't think the strike isgoing to end unless these things
are absolutely addressed. Butwhat it will also mean if we
look at trickle down economicsand history and other
industries, is the end usersthat's us, the consumers, we are
(22:28):
going to face highersubscription costs for the
streaming services and theplatforms that we want to see
our content on. Why is that anissue because the traditional
model of television was that wehad 32nd spots 62nd spots where
commercial ads were sold. Thatmeans major corporations, Nike,
(22:49):
for Cadillac, you name it, theysold, they purchased rather, at
spots, so that they could sharetheir products and services with
the with the American public orthe public at large. With
streaming services. Many ofthose platforms have commercial
free models, which means you wemust be willing to pay that
(23:12):
premium to not see those ads,right. But my guess is that ads
are gonna be coming into play.
More and more. We've alreadystarted seeing it on peacock on
Hulu, on Apple TV, so forth andso on on Macs, we're starting to
see subscription cost pluscommercials. Now, my guess my
question is, how long willconsumers accept that they have
(23:33):
to pay to see TV and watchcommercials because we've been
spoiled with Netflix, you get toturn on the on the app, watch
what you want to watch, no ads,binge and enjoy yourself. But
Netflix and Paramount andpeacock and NBC and ESPN and
Disney. They can't afford tokeep going at that rate. Right.
(23:55):
The next thing that I'mimagining is going to happen
though, is that movie theatercosts are going to continue to
rise. We already know that movietheaters are closing down we see
the box office numbers aretumbling and there doesn't seem
to be an end in sight. Thattells me that movie goers are
tired of cookie cutter moviesthat don't really hit the spot
(24:15):
anymore. They're not really asengaging. They're predictable.
They're, you know, in a box,kind of sad. The cat monitor
right? Yes, pun was intended.
So here is the opportunityfor individuals that still have
a desire to become a successfulfilmmaker or screenwriter.
(24:37):
We can look at all of this andsee that there's a silver lining
to this cloud. There's a way tobe made, despite the obstacles
that we can see in theenvironment, all the things
outside of our control, right.
And the reason that there's anopportunity is because depending
on how you look at the world,you can kind of see where you
might be able to slide in again.
(24:58):
I'm not telling you to go onBe a scammer and break the
strike break the union lies. I'mnot telling you to do that. But
what I am saying is that thereis yet an opportunity to do
things like creating a brand foryourself, learning how to live
beyond just on the page, right?
If you can develop powerfulcontent and learn how to market
(25:20):
that content to an audience thatloves you and becomes loyal to
your shows, you can create anempire, just like Tyler Perry
did, because of the businessmodel that he created over the
last 20 years, right.
And others have also blazed atrail just like Tyler Perry, you
can look up there dozens anddozens of examples. But this is
(25:40):
not about those other writers.
Now, that's the good, bad andugly when it comes down to why
Hollywood is dead in the waterand why it's never going to look
exactly like it does now or whatwe remember in days past. But if
you are ready to carve your ownfuture, get over the hump, find
the opportunities within thischaos, then I would love to
share with you a position paperthat not only highlights these
problems and what to do aboutthem. But it tells you how you
(26:03):
can build a brand, you can startto monetize your creativity. And
you can do all of this whetheryou decide to be a part of
Hollywood, or you choose to goyour own route. So if you want
that free position paper, clickthe link in my bio if you're
watching this via social media,or if you're listening to this
podcast, then go ahead and clickshow notes. So you can get that
free download to talk about thestate of Hollywood, how it's
(26:25):
dead in the water and how we canstill find success if we are
willing to look beyond the chaosto how we can use our
creativity.
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