Episode 12: Should Developers Sell or Hold

In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tim and Tom Dosch share real-time insights from the frontlines of the Texas land market, diving deep into the strategies developers are using to navigate the current economic cycle.

From suburban land values rebounding to urban infill sites facing longer hold times, they break down how market cycles, interest rates, and buyer behavior are shaping land deals across Texas. Whether you’re sitting on land, trying to decide when to sell, or actively developing, this episode gives clear advice based on hundreds of live deals and decades of brokerage experience.

They also unpack the psychology behind why some developers hold too long when a JV might make sense, and why waiting too long might be the biggest mistake of all.

Whether you're a developer, landowner, or real estate investor, this is a must-listen if you're trying to decide what to do next in this market.

Key Takeaways

• How the market has shifted in Q1 2025—and why suburban land is seeing new highs

• The danger of procrastinating: why holding too long can quietly kill your return

• Sell or hold? The three buckets developers fall into and what strategy fits each one

• How to use joint ventures or co-GP structures to recover value in a challenging deal

• The emotional side of land ownership—and how it gets in the way of good decisions

• Why some developers are exiting now and still turning a profit

• How DMRE uses live market activity, not comps, to evaluate land pricing

• Appraisals vs. reality: why developers should be cautious relying on old valuations

• What makes a good seller—and how that impacts deal velocity and pricing

• Why indecision is the biggest mistake in land strategy today

  
  

  In this episode:

  • [00:00:00] Podcast intro and behind-the-scenes technical issues

  • [00:01:52] The growing audience and why the podcast is resonating

  • [00:03:08] Plans to bring on guests and industry voices

  • [00:06:27] Comparing developer activity in Dallas vs. Houston

  • [00:10:21] Repositioning land: switching uses to unlock more value

  • [00:13:24] Why developers hesitate to sell—especially to competitors

  • [00:15:09] The “hold vs. sell” debate and emotional attachment to land

  • [00:17:01] 3 common situations developers face with land assets

  • [00:20:08] When JV or co-GP deals make more sense than a clean sale

  • [00:22:24] Lessons from deals held 10+ years and sold for a loss

  • [00:34:40] Appraisal gaps and developer expectations vs. market reality

  • [00:36:24] Why Q1 2025 is seeing renewed buyer demand

  • [00:39:20] Final advice for developers: make a move while you have options

  • [00:43:54] Q1 recap and closing

  
  Resources and Links

  Texas Land Guys Podcast

  • https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/welcome-to-the-texas-land-guys-podcast-the-art/id1788566687?i=1000682586353

  
  

  Tom Dosch

  • https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/

  • https://dmre.com/

  • https://ascentinv.com/

  • .css-j9qmi7{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;font-weight:700;margin-bottom:1rem;margin-top:2.8rem;width:100%;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:start;justify-content:start;padding-left:5rem;}@media only screen and (max-width: 599px){.css-j9qmi7{padding-left:0;-webkit-box-pack:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;justify-content:center;}}.css-j9qmi7 svg{fill:#27292D;}.css-j9qmi7 .eagfbvw0{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;color:#27292D;}