November 5, 2025 • 81 mins
What if the cleanest read on market risk isn’t a sentiment index but the dollar itself? We connect the dots from DXY’s slide and rebound to the invisible gears of Eurodollar credit, showing how collateral breathes through trade invoices, repos, and leverage, and how that breath has begun to shorten. From port softness and a reported 17% drop in trucking volumes to tighter haircuts and slower factoring, we map the quiet contraction that can force risk assets to pay a toll in the form of sharp pullbacks.
We dig into why professionals rarely short meme‑charged leaders like Palantir even when valuations look unhinged, and how the “malicious” habit of strong markets is to snap back toward the one‑year moving average before pushing higher. Along the way, we revisit the Supreme Court’s tariff signals, the politics of New York’s vote, and the way those headlines filter into liquidity creation via trade flows. On jobs, we unpack an ADP beat that hides softness in information and professional services while healthcare and utilities carry the print, and we talk frankly about how AI threatens a quarter of tasks, particularly in admin and legal support.
Finally, we ask a contrarian question: is Apple right to avoid an AI capex arms race? Preserving balance sheet flexibility might be the smarter bet if we’re edging toward a collateral recession where financing gets stingier and optionality becomes a moat. Expect volatility, not apocalypse; respect the cadence of liquidity; and plan for violent, normal pullbacks within long trends. If this perspective challenges how you track markets, follow, share with a friend, and leave a quick review. What’s your top stress indicator right now?
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:01):
I'm coughing.
Oh my goodness, that must meanonly one thing is not end
recording.
We are recording.
We're on my blasted notes.
Ladies, ladies and gentlemen, itis I, Hugh Hendry.
I'm sitting outside again.
And it's windy.
(00:22):
I hope I don't mess up thesound.
Anyway, without other ado.
Remember, remember the 5th ofNovember.
Not vom not not vomiting?
Hmm.
Not bonfires.
But even that crafty chap, GuyFox.
Was he a Catholic or was heagainst the Protestants?
(00:44):
I can't remember.
Not a stiff upper ember ormember.
I'm here.
I'm your acid capitalist in thetropics.
With the sparks.
The sparks are divine.
Markets! Markets may flare.
It's been two days.
Since I last spoke.
Two days?
I don't know.
(01:05):
Since I last spoke to you.
Since I last tried tocommunicate with you, my
brothers and my sisters.
Markets flared.
They flared.
They flare up.
They flare down.
Here the rum flows.
I don't like rum, but every poemseems to need rum when you're in
the land of the pirate.
Madness aligns or does it.
(01:30):
Ladies and gentlemen, I am noconspirator.
I am simply your provocateur.
Seeking to light up that inkymind of yours and mine with some
economic fire.
Boom.
I think I should always beginwith a with a poem.
(01:52):
Because again, was Iprocrasticating?
I was, I was delaying action.
But that sounds as if you'redelaying it for a reason.
There was no good reason.
And I always feel like when youare delaying because you're
you're pensive.
But it sounds likeprevaricating.
Pensive.
I am a pensive mind.
(02:14):
I'm hesitant.
Little old me.
Oh my god.
I began like a hare running outof the box, chased by the
greyhounds on the like the frontcover of a blur album and
everything very South London.
(02:34):
I always feel self-confious.
Diffident.
Not to be confused, but defiant.
No, diffident.
Until I get going, I'm lacking alittle bit of confidence.
Not ready to assert myself.
(02:56):
I'm fearful.
I'm temporizing.
I'm cautious because I want it.
Oh my god, I'm taking a timecheck.
Okay, it is it is 26 minutes tonine o'clock in the evening.
Let's keep this going.
I'm cautious because I want itto be so good for you and for
(03:19):
me.
Right, Henry.
Shut up.
I am looking.
Do you know what I'm looking at?
Actually, I'm looking at FinViz.
There's another free F R free insame box.
F-R-E-E.
Speak slowly, Mr.
(03:40):
Henry.
I'm looking at the Dow Jones,the SP, the NASDAQ.
I'm looking at those charts.
And yeah, yesterday, we weren'ttalking yesterday, and markets
were down, but you would thinkit'd been a Z-score day.
It was not.
(04:01):
They were back up today.
And if anything, it just looksas if we had taken out the
enthusiastic grasping to buystocks early on as the weekend
gave over into this splendidweek.
(04:22):
Prices gapped.
There was an interruption inprices.
And they did quite trade atevery level.
And I think I I noted that I amof a generation, or otherwise, I
(04:46):
those with the supposition thatgaps, mind the gap.
They say that on the LondonUnderground.
Mind the gap.
Because the gaps get filled.
Kind of.
That's what it looks like.
The Nikai is one of thosewondrous charts, actually.
I like to look at these Japanesecandlesticks.
(05:10):
It's a representation of themarkets, the high, the low, the
close.
Oh my god, what is it?
High, the highest point of theday, the lowest point.
Oh, the opening and the close.
There, there are four pointswhich define these patterns.
And the practice of looking atthese patterns, daily patterns,
(05:37):
intra-day patterns, goes back, Ibelieve, as far back as I think
the 17th century, and Japaneserice traders.
So here we are looking at theNikkei 225.
And it's it's not a doji.
A doji is inside the day before.
(05:57):
I think is what is that?
Oh my god, I can't recall itsname, but the close was higher
than the opening, and both weresubstantially greater than the
intraday low.
(06:18):
And and so there was a sell-offintraday, which flushed out
sellers and was met by buying, Iguess, every you say his law,
supply creates its own demand.
That is true, but it typicallyhas or it can have price
consequences.
The price consequence the daybefore in Tokyo was modest.
(06:44):
The things you say when youbegin a podcast.
(07:13):
A bearish engulfing pattern.
What's that all about?
I don't think it's a hugeamount.
I think I think I I definitelydo not know, but possibly.
We did, remember, remember, the5th of November.
(07:33):
And we did receive did wereceive or they started?
The Supreme Court started takingnotes and hearing about these
tariffs and the legality.
And there was some nervouschatter that the nature of the
(07:58):
questions from the suprememembers of the highest court may
lead one to suspect that theyare suspicious of the legality
of the president's use of hispower.
And that if they were to ruleagainst, then what happens to
(08:22):
the 30 yards, the thirty billiondollars per month of tariff or
tax revenue that has become animportant fiscal consideration
in taming this out of controlspending by Washington.
(08:45):
Maybe that's what was going ontoday.
But the really, really big thingwas happening up the coastline
from me in New York.
Where they did it.
They did it on a record turnout.
(09:07):
The good citizens of New Yorkwent bonkers.
The first thing I read thismorning was from the new from
what is it called?
Zorb Zorban.
Thank you to those so oftenforgotten by the politics of our
(09:30):
big city.
Those who made this mo thismovement, they made it their
own.
I speak of the Yemeni Bodega.
The Yemeni?
I cannot speak.
Yemeni.
Yemeni.
Not Yosemite, but Yemeni, thebrothers, the Arab African
(09:55):
brothers, the Yemeni Bodegaowners, the Mexican Abulas.
I had to look up Abulas.
I think that means grandmothers.
The Sengales, oh my god, theSengese taxi drivers and the
Uzbekistan nurses.
SPEAKER_00 (10:14):
And more than honorable mention to the
Trinidadian cooks and theEthiopian aunties.
Yes, it's not me saying yes.
Zorban, the mayor, he said yes,the aunties.
SPEAKER_01 (10:32):
May I remind you, this is the citadel of finance,
or maybe I should say pasttense.
The people.
The tyranny of the many.
We complain about deficits, butat the at the polling booth,
it's like spend me the money.
SPEAKER_00 (10:56):
Spend me the money.
And remarkable.
Remarkable.
There's no mention.
There's no mention of theAmerican worker.
Quite astonishing.
SPEAKER_01 (11:09):
Yemeni, Mexican, Sengalese, Uzbekistan,
Trinidadian, Trinadian, andEthiopian.
And I was on the the Twitter.
(11:30):
Not a lot.
I'm trying to get I'm trying to.
It's not healthy the time Ispent on the the Twitter.
But there's a a new, I think anew service.
Code Motivational Quotes of theDay at Q U O D A Y.
An honourable mention.
And and they had me in there.
(11:51):
They had a dreadful, I mean, Ithink I'm quotable.
They had the worst quote from meever.
One that goes along the lines ofyou can take the boy out of
Glasgow, but you can't take theGlasgow out of the boy.
And I I tapped them up and like,thank you.
I mean, you know, I I'mappreciative of any interest.
(12:13):
But I think I I think we coulddo better.
And I gave them what did I givethem.
I don't know if I I I am goingto attempt.
I am going to attempt to press avideo.
I wonder if you will be able tohear it.
Let's go.
(12:33):
No, it would seem I wouldrecommend you panic.
What?
I would recommend you panic.
I'm sorry, what?
I would recommend you panic.
I'm sorry, what?
I would recommend you panic.
Oh my god, who is that guy?
Like, mmm.
The asset capital is on on BBCNews tonight.
(12:54):
A long, long time ago.
Am I recommending you panictoday?
Don't think I am, but I'll comeback to that.
The core day, however, they havethey have a quote from Alan
Watts.
Alan Watts has a remarkable, aremarkable voice, a remarkable
(13:16):
life, a philosopher, kind ofmeditation, and a scholar, I
mean, an enchanting voice, andvery, very clever.
No longer with us, sadly.
Um, but the the quote of the daywas to go out of your mind once
a day is tremendously important.
(13:40):
Because by by going out of yourmind, new majors come to your
senses.
I like it, I love it.
The same, however, I don'tthink, can be said of the New
York decision with their mayor.
Who who am I to say?
(14:01):
I don't live there.
I can't see.
I'm looking through my notesbecause I'm trying to see.
There was so much vitriolwritten, I'm sure.
I because I I take littlepictures of things that I read
so that I can share it with you.
Oh, yeah.
Uh so the Financial Times, theCommie Times, the newspaper, the
(14:24):
newspaper.
Let me do it justice.
The newspaper for the Yemeni,Yemeni bodega owners, for the
Mexican abulas, for the Sengesetaxi drivers, and the Uzbeki
nurses, for the Trinidadian limecooks and the Ethiopian aunties,
(14:47):
we have the pink financialnewspaper, the Financial Times,
and its take on the the Merrillraces last night.
Analysts, analysts saidRepublicans acros across across
(15:07):
the board losses showed voterswere largely dissatisfied with
the president's performance tenmonths into his second term.
Boom, boom, boom.
I don't I I beg to differ.
And I don't think there was anyany great surprise.
(15:28):
Like democratic, like you know,areas that voted, and they went
comp they really went completelybonkers.
Is the country ready to gocompletely bonkers?
I don't know, I don't think so.
And and Trump would be welladvised to be presidential, just
(15:49):
say, yeah, let's just give ittime.
Let's let's see how it how itrolls.
But that was the first thing Iread this morning.
It did make me laugh.
One of the charts I'm lookingat, oh my goodness, I I actually
(16:10):
you're listening to the podcast,but I record this thing and I
put on a shirt, and I'm sittingoutside, and in my fan.
It's too noisy, so I switched itoff.
I'm feeling hot.
Anyway, the dollar was writtenoff by the Financial Times and
(16:34):
written off by the superiorintellectual middle brow, and
was down, I think, at one pointdown about 10, 11, 12% on the
year.
And it is staging something of acomeback.
It is the dollar, the Dixie, theDXY, which is largely the euro
(16:59):
dollar, is just about just above100.
And so down about 10% on theyear.
And if we were to go back to theyear 2023 when it peaked at 115,
it's down about 15%.
And I I've certainly had I'veseen chatterings, I've seen
(17:23):
speculative rents, some, notall, not Trader Mike.
Trader Mike is just too busy.
Trader Mike in the last threeyears has made back to back to
back six six to six zero percentgains.
He is not playing in the dollarindex.
(17:44):
I mentioned the dollar perhapsbecause it's talismatic, and I
think is maybe the bestindicator of liquidity.
Wow, I suddenly I think I'veopened a door, and I think I
know the next five or sixsentences.
(18:06):
The talismatic dollar.
I like to look at it because Ifeel it's one of the clearest
indicators of collateral.
And behind every good man therelies collateral, not a lady.
Of course, there's a lady, butyou know, the the the phantom of
(18:29):
liquidity seen everywhere, lotsof hocus pocus financial
services.
There's many a YouTube channel,there's many a guru out there
becoming rich, selling bogusliquidity indicators.
Bogus, that's what I say to you,they're all bogus.
(18:52):
But the dollar's not a badindicator of liquidity.
And no surprise that it's fallenfifteen percent.
So if you were a reverseindicator, the the uh the dollar
is the reserve currency, it isdollars, it is dollars that move
(19:17):
or power asset prices globallyand powers them higher.
When there are more dollarschasing assets, then asset
prices rise.
And what did I say?
(19:38):
We the the the late 22 peakcoincides with you know the the
pro the profound sell-off thatwe saw.
I'm saying profound sell-off,and as always, I'm of the type
that I'm always questioningmyself.
I'm bringing up the the spy, I'mlooking at the SP 500, so in
(20:00):
five years and end of 22.
Yeah, yeah.
So to remind ourselves for yeah,for that that 2021 markets
really tanked, really tanked.
We fell from like 500 to to 350,30 percent.
(20:23):
So dollars were being set onfire, liquidity was contracting.
You know, if the if the marketcapitalization of of stocks is
two times GDP, so s almost sixtysix zero trillion dollars, and
(20:45):
the market the market fallsthirty percent, then the market
capitalization has fallen byeighteen trillion dollars.
Eighteen thousand billion USdollars have vanished.
That's that's the liquidity thatI talk about.
(21:07):
And so dollars have becomescarcer, more valued, more
needed to survive.
People bid for the dollar, notthe asset, not the stock market,
not the private equity, not pronot real estate, but cash
(21:28):
dollars.
So the the bottom of the market,the stock market, kind of first
of October 2022, coincides withpeak dollar.
And the SP or I'm looking, I'musing the the spider, the ETF,
(21:53):
of course, has moved higher from350 to what 680.
And so we've added againprobably 18.
We've added 27 trillion dollars.
So dollars are now plentiful orhave been plentiful, and the
dollar index had has fallen,fallen from 115, and what did I
(22:17):
say?
The low had been oh my god, I'mlooking at Bitcoin.
We'll come back to Bitcoin.
I promise you, remind me if Iforget.
Um yeah, we we'd moved 115 to 9to 95 on the Dixie as dollars
became plentiful.
(22:38):
Now, how did dollars becomeplentiful?
It's worth mentioning againbecause it's very much in vogue.
And and this tiny little risefrom 95 to 100 again in the
dollar index is so if themarket's gonna sell off, stock
(23:03):
market's gonna sell off, you'regonna be destroying dollars
again, and at some pointthere'll be a clamor, a desire
on the part of financialspeculative institutions,
there'll be a need for them tohave more dollars, so they'll
bid for dollars and they'll sellother currencies, and the dollar
(23:23):
will rise once more.
Now, if you're gonna see a25-30% decline in the stock
market, so similar to the year2021.
Um that dollar index is gonna goway higher.
(23:49):
But let's discuss how thathappens.
Liquidity, this damn wordliquidity, is like the wind.
I I mean I've literally toldChat GPT that it is it is banned
from EM dashes.
Do you know what an EM dash is?
(24:09):
EM dash are those things thatnewspapers use, and I think they
come off the old-fashionedAmerican typewriter.
It's a it's a double dashwithout a space, an elongated
dash.
An artificial intelligence andreports crafted from such or
(24:32):
crafted or assisted.
It's become almost like the DNAof AI, the the selfish gene.
And it's the the the our purposeon earth is to propagate, to
receive our DNA and to pass iton to another generation.
The great sin would be ourfailure to pass on our DNA.
(24:56):
And in a similar manner, itwould seem that the machines,
the progeny of the machine, I'mmaking this up, of course, is
the EM dash.
And try as I may, I cannoteliminate the damn EM dash.
Anyway, em dashes and the theglib use.
(25:16):
They've been speaking for 20minutes, the glib use of
liquidity are my bugbears ofmodern life.
And I was telling you, I wastelling you about one of my
great substack or Patreon,patrons, patrons, you know, like
(25:38):
a support someone who supportsmy creative endeavors.
I ask you all to please buy ahat or a membership to the
summer camp or become asubstacker.
Um I turned the transcript theother day into a super essay,
(26:01):
and we expanded further on thetrader mic's option trading.
Today I think he made you knowtoday.
The Solano was up and he's inthe two times, and he he bought
a lot of options yesterday.
Did he say he made$100,000today?
I don't know.
(26:23):
One do you know one of his legsand legs, but one of his delta
long positions in Bitcoin?
And he's not sure about Bitcoinlike any of us today.
Right now.
He's typically very willing toopen himself up to downside risk
(26:45):
in Bitcoin, but less so justnow.
And maybe that has something todo with liquidity.
But yeah, he's running like injust one of his positions, I
think he has four or five.
Bullishly predicated,directionally bullishly
predicated trades in Bitcoin.
(27:06):
One is it, eight million bucks.
I mean, Mike swings work.
Bitcoin Bitcoin, Bitcoin.
Oh yeah, that and I was theidiot.
I'm sure I wrote something.
Let me look in my downloadfolder.
Downloads.
And let me I I should reallyprepare the i idiot.
(27:31):
The idiot, I think, is referringto that famous Damn, there's
nothing there.
Okay, I'm gonna have to.
I'm gonna have to get into theChat GPT.
But you know, it's a it is a isit Dostoyevsky, the idiot.
(27:54):
Tell me more, Mr.
unknown (27:59):
Mr.
SPEAKER_01 (27:59):
Chat GPT, don't let me down.
I did this the other day,actually, but I I used the voice
prompt and then I um I promptlystopped recording, unknown to
me.
The idiot by Fyodor DostoyDostoyevsky.
And it it is a Russian novelthat was conceived and written
(28:23):
one hundred years before I wasborn.
A young man whose innocence, hishonesty, and his compassion.
Oh my god, I feel I feel aconnection.
(28:44):
Maybe not young man, but I'm I'mthe youngest.
Mind you meet.
But and it's true, innocence,more lost than it's I'm I never
lost my innocence.
I'm seeking to lose myinnocence.
Please help me lose myinnocence.
(29:07):
My honesty, I don't you can't betoo honest.
You know, I think my ex-wifewould say to me, you would do
yourself a big favor if youcould keep a few secrets.
Hostage.
Example to the to the jury, likementioning the coconut oil is a
sexual lubricant.
We don't need to know that.
(29:28):
Why are we talking about it now?
And compassion, I hope I'mcompassionate.
I'm tough, but I mean, toughknow is tough.
But I'm not I'm definitelypassionate.
Compassion?
I want to say I I havecompassion.
And and put it all together, andand definitely people people
(29:52):
call me an idiot all the time.
And I don't even exist in thecynical high society of St.
Petersburg.
So it's a book exploring themoral purity in a corrupt world.
I mean, I feel like I'm a kid ina corrupt world.
The tension between idolism andrealism, don't know what that
(30:15):
means.
Love and obsession.
Love and obsession.
Love is an obsession.
Obsession is a love, surely.
The clash between faith andmodern modernity.
I'm definitely into that.
Modernity.
Why does the idiot matter?
(30:35):
Because Mishkin.
Mishkin is God.
Oh my god, was I comparingmyself to God?
I'm too good for this world.
I'm too good for you all.
Can pure goodness survive in aflawed society?
Wow.
I mention all of that.
(30:58):
There's no I don't know why Imentioned all of that, but I can
take that further.
I can vibe with that.
So Mishkin and his M Y, M Y ifyou're French.
S-H K-I-N.
But there was a former, Ibelieve he was a former Fed
(31:18):
governor.
And back in the day, it wouldhave been 2007.
I was what was I?
I was I was I was honest andcompassionate and innocent, and
I had amassed a monstrouslypreposterous short position in
(31:43):
the Icelandic cod krona.
And I was long both the euro andthe dollar, the Dixie.
And I think I had amassed one ofthe most pro preposterously
large uh positions ever seen.
(32:06):
What is the talk amongstyourselves?
What is the GDP of Iceland?
And let me hint to you is not alot.
Yeah.
It's 33 yards.
(32:28):
33 yards.
I mean, what is that?
One percent of Amazon?
And I think I was at one pointtwo hundred million dollars
long, and and therefore theequivalent short, the the
corona.
And and I hope you know thebackground and the reason it um
(32:49):
it it became a thefinancialization, it was the
Russian money actually, butcoming in uh so a tiny little
satellite country.
Uh why would you ever hold cashin the Icelandic krona?
(33:09):
It's preposterous.
But here we were in 2004, five,six, seven.
We were in the years followingthe NASDAQ crash when Alan
Greenspan had taken interestrates in America on the dollar
down to one percentunprecedented.
(33:30):
And a carry trade of what it wascreated by Iceland paying you
five, six, seven percent.
Hmm, okay, and and so itattracted capital inflow, and
that money resided as depositswith the banks.
(33:54):
There weren't that many moneymarket funds, it was deposits,
and a deposit for a bank is aliability, and the bank will
take the the the inflow and itfeels compelled to create an
asset, which is a loan.
And there's just so much moneycoming in that again unsupply
(34:15):
overwhelms the census.
And God, I didn't think I'd betalking about this, and and so
the banks were fundingeverything, uh, lots of idiotic
things, and it it wasn't gonnalast.
(34:35):
And as the drama and the cry andthe the suspense and the
realization that the world wason a precipe, Iceland was
raising interest rates becausethe atr the the principle, the
only attraction of Iceland wasthis high carry.
(34:58):
But then the Fed was raisinginterest rates.
Remember, oil in 2007 got toalmost$150,$150 more than twice
its level today, and and sointerest rates really had to be
high, punishingly high inIceland, 15%.
And so it was like it was justeasy, it was gonna fall over.
(35:23):
And they kind of knew that, butthe the central bank of Iceland
contracted, consulted with thisegghead, this renowned economist
who had had the premature ofhaving sat on the Federal
Reserve Interest Rate SettingCommittee and an academic
taboot.
(35:44):
And he got paid$100,000.
They didn't really advertisethat, they didn't really promote
that in the front page of theFinancial Times, but they took
his name and they said, Crisisproblem, Iceland's amazing.
And 907.
Wow, 30 minutes I've beenspeaking to no end.
(36:05):
That cost me a lot of money thatday.
Michigan, I call, I think ofhim, and forgive me, I'm sure
he's a charming and a wonderfulindividual, but nah.
Shame on him was was what Ithought.
I definitely thought of him asbeing an idiot when the ultimate
crisis befell Iceland.
(36:32):
The idiot, not Dostoevsky, butmy my my uh my my wonderful
substacker or Patreon wrote tome saying that he had I think
he's German.
And he's very knowledgeable, hehas a great base level of
understanding of the financialsystem.
Is he one of the mysteriousfive?
(36:54):
I mean, who knows?
But he was saying that he he hadwatched, and well done him.
He'd watched one of these uhFrench television channels,
Arte, I'm sure you don'tpronounce the E, but A-R-T-E.
And it actually had a programdedicated to the Euro dollar,
(37:16):
the Euro dollar offshore dollarmoney printing, gig, business,
empire, and according to ARTE,the French channel, and you the
presumption must be it's RT, no,but they were making claims
(37:37):
which I would absolutely uphold,which is that you know, so we're
talking money, forgive me, thisis laborious, we're talking
money, or the creation of money,and what is money, and we're I'm
trying to frame it in thecontext of liquidity.
(37:57):
The popular conception of moneyis that it's created, and I
alluded to it in the instance ofIceland, that money rushes into
deposits, and the banks seekcorresponding, which is that
which is a liability of thebank, the private bank, private
sector bank, and therefore theledger must balance, and so it
(38:17):
has a a need to find assets, andthere are only really two assets
for a bank, and we can lend tothe government, so it would buy
a bond, or it would lend to youand I and corporations and
mortgages and the like, andthat's this kind of money
printing, and so in America, M0is high-powered money.
(38:44):
What is high-powered money?
High-powered money is a form ofbanking collateral.
Collateral, there's a word.
I'm gonna expand upon that, butit's very much at the women
controlled by the FederalReserve.
Um, and it's the and it'smatched by it.
(39:07):
The reserves are like thekryptonide of the financial
system, which allow banks andtheir fractional reserve
reserves, fractional reserves,they turn those reserves and
into much larger pools of money,which we call M2.
And so the high-powered money orM0 in America today is like four
(39:30):
and a half trillion dollars, andbroad money is$22 trillion.
So it's being magnified byprivate sector banks lending,
and as they lend that createsdeposits and then reserves and
is circular and it expands.
But what the idiot was pointingout from the the French TV show
(39:56):
was more money, and I definitelyI've said this before, so wow,
to be the corroboration comes atyou from very distant and and
and not so obvious places.
More money is created by theEurodollar system, and that
money does not reside or is notcaptured in high-powered M0 or
(40:18):
M2, and because those aredomestic measures, and and and
the dollar today is largelycreated outside the jurisdiction
of the Federal Reserve andoutside the sovereignty of the
United States.
It's an invisible liquidity.
(40:43):
It's the liquidity that comes,like I said, we we tend to think
of mutual funds or hedge fundsas like a billion-dollar mutual
fund, and it would spend abillion dollars on equities.
It does not.
It pledges the billion dollarsas collateral and it gets
leverage and it buys many moreequities.
(41:05):
There's no bank accountmovement, there's no ledger
movement that is captured by theFederal Reserve.
Federal Reserve does not know.
That's what the point of ARTE inFrance was making.
Wow, the Federal Reserve doesnot know the magnitude of dollar
creation.
Think about that.
(41:27):
Now, within that long, was itcomplex or waffly statement of
mine?
I I I hesitated there becausethere was a gust of wind and it
it lifted the protective coverfrom the sunbed, and I now see
(41:51):
it floating less than elegantlyin my beautiful swimming pool.
I mentioned collateral, andthere's been there's a lot of
talk about collateral, andthere's a lot of talk about the
plumbing of the of the onshoreAmerican financial
(42:12):
establishment, and it hasimplications for onshore money
creation, and and very neat thatso collateral we mentioned the
collateral of your billiondollar mutual fund that's an
equity mutual fund.
(42:37):
But a collateral is being formedhere, there, and everywhere.
The you have an Americanimporter and a Chinese exporter.
There is an invoice, a dollarinvoice to be paid to the
Chinese exporter.
(42:58):
The invoice in the last fewyears onshore, private equity
companies and the like, they'relike, wow, facting, that's an
asset.
We can sell that.
And we can sell that as anasset, a lot, an asset then
creates liabilities likedeposits in the banks.
The facturization of the invoiceis like a bank deposit, but a
(43:21):
non-recorded bank deposit.
But it creates dollar creation.
And remember, we're talkingabout the last few years where
the the spider, the ETF of theSP, what did we say had gone
from 350 at the end of 2021,going into 2022?
(43:43):
From 352 to 670, 680, stockprices have gone up because
there's been a lot of dollarcreation.
And and the Dixie, the DXY has,to repeat myself, has fallen 20
points.
Um and think about what wasgoing on.
(44:04):
I mean, the Chinese tradesurplus has just positively
exploded.
You know, there was the what wasI saying in the last podcast
that Besints got Bescent and thesubtitle machine, if it's
listening, is B, is it B-E-S-SE-N-T or is it A N T.
(44:27):
I'm no good at subtitles.
We're saying 42% of theinflation of COVID was egregious
overproduction of US governmentspending.
But it un it unlocked once we rewe reopened the international
(44:47):
supply system, which was veryrapid, a tsunami of
imports-exports, facturization,phantom or otherwise, but
collateral being created, andcollateral that has its own
fractional reserve system,whereby a hundred dollars of
facturization might give riseto, I don't know, a hundred
(45:09):
might give rise to a thousanddollars of of new money.
And and and of and of verylatest chapter, so it's a
chapter that began late 2021four years ago.
(45:29):
So in the last year, of course,there'd been really an
acceleration in invoicingAmerican imports, Chinese and
otherwise exports into theUnited States.
Gasping to take a glass of uhdrink of water, an acceleration
on the basis of beating the damntariff.
(45:52):
Beating the damn tariff.
So trying to land and getexports, dollar side, American
site, um, created a surge in ininvoicing, which just one
element of dollar creation andliquidity.
(46:13):
We now have the tariffs.
I I I think I've seen I mean theUS.
The import bill from the Chinesehas fallen has fallen
considerably.
Considerably, and these are bignumbers.
I think I'm 40 minutes into thisthing.
I'm hoping that if I keep timingmyself, I may there will not be
(46:38):
well, maybe there's lucidity,but you know, brevity.
Brevity, please.
Less invoicing.
Less invoicing means uh month onmonth, quarter on quarter, year
over year.
Liquidity and and theacceleration.
There's no acceleration,contraction, perhaps.
(47:02):
Um I saw something.
Where are my notes?
This was all just like made upoff the top of my head.
Where are my notes?
There was an article that I sawtoday that came from an
interview on CNBC tracking thefreight market.
(47:22):
Apparently, freight, you know,the transport intermediate or
finished goods, US truckingvolumes.
Interstate flat.
Out of state, so kind of comingin from the ports on the west
coast and then being put intothe to be distributed across the
(47:45):
landmass of the United States.
Uh no, this is a CMBC headlineuh from Craig Fuller.
Freight waves, these are CEO.
According to him, truckingvolumes drop 17% year over year.
(48:05):
I mean, think of that as a 17%correct correction, contraction,
it may be in liquidity.
And and we've seen some somehairy we well, we've seen credit
failures.
In the in the high yield world.
(48:26):
And then we're beginning to seethings going on in terms of
regional banks that have beenweak.
Um, so there's the the murkyhidden world of dollar creation,
which has been on a pump higherand has taken equity prices
(48:48):
higher and higher, is straininga little bit.
So we're watching that.
The dollar index itself still ashitty chart.
Shitty, I don't know how to callit.
I I would not commit my life andmy reputation to the the Dixie,
the dollar index.
(49:10):
Marcus felt very weak yesterday,and there was a lot of people
rushing to call the top.
And I don't know.
I I did, it it made me laugh.
(49:32):
Laugh.
I don't know if I laughed.
I'm not the giggling type.
I may have been supercilious.
A great word, and my eyebrowsmay have twitched.
When I read about the CEOs ofthe big Wall Street investment
(49:57):
banks, and they were at aconference somewhere, and and
they were all saying, and thethe headline was stock bills get
wake up call from Wall StreetCEOs, the CEO of Goldman Sachs
and Morgan Stanley predicting a10 to 20% equity drawdown in the
next 12 to 24 months.
Goldman CEO and DJ David Solomonuse the irrational exuberance.
(50:24):
Now, apart from the irrationalexuberance.
Was I not saying to you that forthe market to continue melting
up, it would be normal, and Iwould say more than normal, it
(50:49):
would be a prerequisite almostthat we should witness 15 to 20%
violent pullbacks back to theone-year moving average.
And again, I I was in the DAM,the chat GPT, and I do have a a
(51:11):
Hugh Hendry GPT, and I was gonnasay to my superphones.
Who are my superphones?
But um, I feel like I'd I'd wantto share my I I could how would
I do that?
I want to share my GPT.
So this has all of my it's apretty groovy GPT.
(51:32):
It has all of my investmentletters, and it has my
mysterious memoir that I'vewritten, but for um for
frustrating reasons, the uhdisturbance in the universe with
the ghostwriter.
(51:53):
I don't want to say anythingmore about the ghostwriter.
I'm just I just want to yeah, Ihaven't really put it out, but I
and I was telling you about theTwitter quote of the day people.
So I was like, oh, you know, Iwent to my GPT.
I was like, I'm a quotable guy.
(52:14):
Give me some quotes, and let mesee if I can find it, but well,
let me share what it came upwith.
Number one on the list wasyou're all fucking idiots, which
you described as the purestopener in modern financial
literature, punk biblical,instantly recognizable as HH.
(52:36):
My response to that was reallyyou are you're not a fucking
idiot, you're fucking lazy, Mr.
GPT.
SPEAKER_00 (52:43):
You've just taken the first quote from my book,
the first literally the firstpage, and you're trying to serve
that to me as that's it.
You you get in, you get stuckin, and you find me more.
SPEAKER_01 (52:59):
Second one was I like the second one.
See, you tell me I'm a financialliberace, but the musical notes
that I play are concocted fromthe price charts of stocks,
bonds, and currencies.
Yippy D, yippy dah.
I like that one.
That's peak me.
(53:19):
Macro delirium.
I like that one.
I was like a shaman.
No, I was a guard dog ofcapitalism.
I like that one.
Anyway, I was searching for, andit comes from my investment
letter of December 2004.
(53:40):
The malicious, this is me.
I am Michigan, I am the idiot.
The malicious nature of marketsis that they have a tendency to
pull stocks back periodically totheir one year moving average.
(54:01):
Such price price violencecauses, I wrote, causes much
unease.
You bet it does, and it'sdesigned to weaken one's
intellectual determination.
Boom, boom.
Macro Zen master vibing, fearand discipline in one breath.
(54:24):
And I think again, that's kindof what I was saying the other
night that bull markets havethese profound draw drawdowns.
And we're all apostles.
We think we've seen the AIfuture and we've seen the
profits at the end of therainbow.
But somewhere, somewhere in that20.
I mean, if the index moves 25%,you know, your Solana is gonna
(54:46):
be down 60, your salt, your twotimes leverage is gonna be
eviscerated.
And somewhere along thatcapricious journey, you're like,
well, Jesus, well, the guy withthe beard, the funny shoes,
yeah, I don't know him.
Don't know him, don't know him.
Shut up, me right so we've donethat.
I'm gonna I'm going back to mynotes.
This is meant to be a programwhere we talk about economic
(55:09):
data.
Now, I I have to tell you, aTritomite was like, he's really
obsessed by this, and rightly sothat AI and the the coming
implosion in jobs.
And he sent me a Goldman Sachspiece of research.
It's a bar chart.
Exhibit five.
(55:30):
One fourth.
One fourth.
That was a funny word.
One why don't they just say aquarter of current work tasks
could be automated by thedreaded AI in the United States
and Europe?
A quarter.
Most at risk, with a rate ofalmost 46%.
(55:50):
One in two of all tasks I ammending to read this thing.
Office and administrationsupport, gone.
Lego, 44% of those tasks gone.
Architecture and engineering,37% gone.
I tell you, the damn architectsdrive me crazy.
At the other end of thespectrum, only 4% of the tasks
(56:15):
at risk in the installation,maintenance, and repair.
I had 25 such individuals at myhouse today.
There were eight white vans Iparked in the exterior to have
some flexibility.
1% of all tasks in the buildingand ground clearing and
(56:37):
maintenance profession.
Become a plumber, people.
Become a plumber.
SPEAKER_00 (56:45):
And did I again forgive me?
SPEAKER_01 (56:51):
Am I using the same notes from the other night?
Maybe.
So far this year, job cuts arejust shy of a million job cuts,
946,000.
The highest in five years,pandemic, there were just over 2
million job cuts announced.
It's up 55% from last year.
So it kind of feels kind offunky.
(57:12):
And again, people getting alittle bit shifty, a little bit
nervous.
And the fifth highest in the 36years of Challenger.
So kind of something'shappening.
Probably the main thing that'shappening is um is more like
(57:35):
companies just are not willingto commit to new hires.
I think that's the biggest issuejust now.
So people don't know.
And they they feel like ifyou're a corporation, but what I
want to say is two-thirds of oureconomy is made up of you and I,
(57:56):
wages, and the return to us ofour efforts.
And it gives rise to an economicterm which is called the fallacy
of composition.
And so it seems like a really,really smart thing at the
granular level, at the corporatelevel.
I'm a bit worried about theeconomy.
(58:17):
I'm going to let some people go.
And that might be good for yourprofits.
But if every company does that,then you're effectively firing
the ultimate consumers of yourcollective goods and services.
And so you are actually thearchitect of voluntary revenue
(58:38):
contraction.
And companies are leveraged,they've got a lot of fixed cost
components, which they have tomeet, regardless of revenues
being down, flat, or higher.
And so any movement in revenueis typically double, triple
leveraged via profits.
So fallacy of composition iswhat makes sense at the single
(59:00):
company level or the singleconsumer level when you elevate
it to the macro.
It can be bad news.
So all of these tasks that canbe eliminated.
And remember, we're talkingabout a damn system that cannot
calculate compound annual growthrates, that struggles with
(59:21):
documents where the number ofwords are greater than 6,000.
I mean, it's a damn computer.
Why is it struggling with 6,000word documents?
Why can it not calculatecompound annual growth rates?
But apparently it can eliminateabout 50% of all legal
administrative services.
Go figure.
But if you were to lay off allthose people at the economic, at
(59:44):
the at the macroeconomic level.
The utility, the utility offeredby all these redundant legal
(01:00:05):
paralegals, maybe they'll becomemusicians and they write books
and they sing songs and theyentertain us.
Anyway, the day before today wasTuesday, and you know, we're
barren with regard to economicstatistics, but the the big one,
which is normally just ignored,but you know, in a in a day of
(01:00:29):
uh nothing going on, thestandout was the RCM.
The TIPP, the economic optimismindex for November.
I've never heard of it.
And it's notable, notablebecause I will not use the
decimal points, but it was justshy of 44, and it was well below
(01:00:52):
the expected, just above 48, andit was down from the prior
reading of 48.
And and it's a consumerconfidence type index.
So, you know, people gettingpeople getting a little bit
itchy.
And then yesterday, MichaelBury, Bury, Bury, Bury, Bury.
(01:01:17):
I didn't realize he was managingso much money.
And he revealed in his hedgefund they'd taken a billion
dollars short in Palantir.
Which Alex Carp was describingas like batshit crazy.
Why would you do that?
(01:01:40):
Maybe you would do that becausePalantir.
Palantir, Palantir, Palantir.
I mean, I love Alex, but hisstock is really hard.
It's really, really come on,Alex.
It's really, really hard.
I damn, I didn't take a snapshotof this, so again, I'm gonna
have to speak to you and try anddo this.
But let's do Palantir P A L E.
(01:02:05):
Was it A Palan?
What is I think Palantir meanssomething like profoundly Greek
and preposterously.
What is your price?
I mean it's gone from five bucksto two hundred and thirty bucks,
but uh the the key statistics onbar chart, bar chart should
(01:02:30):
sponsor me.
I'm giving them shout-outs allthe time.
I mean it's it was a half atrillion dollar company and
revenue revenue with withoutgiggling historically was just
(01:02:50):
shy of three billion, half atrillion for three billion and
and of course are growingrapidly.
So let's say next year revenuesare are are six trillion.
You know, like half a trilliondollars for that.
But but you should note thatwhen they say Burry had a
(01:03:15):
billion dollar short position,yeah.
Liar, liar, pants on fire.
We have no idea the net positionhe had he had on.
They they they were quotingelements of an option strategy,
but you don't know what the netposition.
Well done, Michael.
He got a lot of headlines, andthe I mean, well done.
I he probably doesn't want theheadline, but beware of
(01:03:37):
headlines like that, they don'tmean much.
And I I have to say, I would beprofoundly suspicious of how
great a short position, if any,Michael Burry had actually
adopted because there is a proway of doing things.
He is obviously the pros pro.
(01:03:59):
And you don't short charts likePalantir.
Palantir reg.
We we live in a in a new world.
This decade is different fromprevious decades.
The proliferation of themeritocracy, the the
(01:04:22):
accessibility of stock tradinghas given rise to meme stocks,
stocks and and asset classeslike gold and bitcoin.
And don't go into Twitter orother echo chambers and try and
argue with people.
This is religion, and Palantiris a meme.
(01:04:46):
You don't go from five bucks to230 bucks in the space of what?
Whoa, there you go.
From remember what we we weresaying, we were saying that huge
drawdown, which I may havealluded to 21, and I probably
meant to say 2022, that 30%contraction in the spider index.
That the bidding up of the USdollar as liquidity shrunk as$18
(01:05:10):
trillion of equity valuation waseviscerated, extinguished, and
then on the other side, thedollar creation, the collateral
from dollar invoicing and andfacturization et al.
and many, many other things.
The the the two trillion dollarsa year of fiscal uh treasury
(01:05:36):
deficits et al.
Stock goes from five bucks to230.
That is meme, and you as aprofessional investor, you you
do not short that.
You do not short anything whereyou you could never, never
envisage or or or create anargument that that would say
(01:05:58):
Palantir, as wonderful as carpis, as wonderful as that company
is going to become, would go toa half a trillion dollar market
capitalization.
And having done so, it makesredundant any expectation that
you you have of calling what itdoes next.
The only point I would make isis like where is my telephone?
(01:06:23):
It is 188.
God, now I'm into an hour.
I'm gonna have to do I startspeaking more rapidly.
This this episode is brought toyou, however, by my lack of
imagination.
I've I paid a little bit more tothe podcast platform, Buzz
Sprout, and and I believe I'mgonna get chapters, so you can
(01:06:44):
just choose your chapters.
But I was saying that theprincipal issue is price is
about one eight eight movingaverage, one year is 127, 61
divided by 188.
I can all hear you saying it'sabout 30, 33 percent above its
one-year moving average, um, andit will pull back.
(01:07:04):
Palantir, meme or no meme, I'mvery confident in saying that
Palantir will have a 40 to 50percent drawdown and will
probably make new highs.
Boom.
Is Apple right?
Where'd that come from?
I put that in huge, unromantic,very, very high font size, so
(01:07:26):
I'd I would see it.
Is Apple right?
Again, this was kind ofsomething that Trader Mike was
just saying in passing.
What is Apple not doing?
It is not plowing hundreds ofbillions of dollars into opening
(01:07:46):
data centers.
It's just not there with AI.
SPEAKER_00 (01:07:49):
It's like, yeah, you you you want you we we will we
will partner with you.
You spend the money, we gotcustomers, we're over here.
Let us know how it works.
SPEAKER_01 (01:07:59):
No AI spend, let the others do it.
Is Apple right?
SPEAKER_00 (01:08:05):
I mean, I don't know, but I think that's an
interesting question, and thestock's kind of been flat this
year.
SPEAKER_01 (01:08:21):
Is Apple the new consumer?
What is what do we call thesethings?
Are they discretionary andnon-discretionary?
Staples.
Mr.
Levinson.
Was it Levinson or was it hisyoung progeny?
Was it was it Ben Ben Bray?
Um or maybe both sent me a Ychart a chart package, which was
(01:08:45):
a ratio of the XLP, which is theconsumer staples ETF, versus the
spider, the SP.
And this is, I mean, the XLP isone of those charts.
As I say this, I'm I mean, I'mnot proving it to myself, but
(01:09:07):
yeah, I'm spitting it in.
What was I saying about MartinMarietta materials?
What was I saying aboutanthenol?
What was I saying?
The definition of a wonderfulasset is you go, well, I go, I
move it from daily, I goquarterly, and I say, you know
(01:09:30):
what?
Show me everything, max it out,baby.
What have you got?
And you find that the the stockprice series goes from the
bottom left-hand side of the ofyour screen to the top right
hand side, and and XLP is one ofthem.
Um this goes back to 1999, itwas trading at call it 25.
(01:09:53):
And 25 years later, it's tradingat 75.
Being a three-bagger.
Another great one, which wentsideways for 12.
It went sideways for the bestpart of nearly 15 years.
You is as late as 2012, you werestill able to buy this thing for
(01:10:13):
like under 30 bucks, and thenyou know, ceiling becomes the
trampoline floor, and boom,you're up threefold.
Anyway, so consumer staples aretypically a rich rewarding area
if you're passively accumulatingstocks.
But when you get thesetechnology surges, the these
(01:10:39):
boring stocks get left behind.
And so it had a taught Torahtime in it, and it troffed
versus the SP in March 2000.
The the high in NASDAQ.
And and it had massiveoutperformance.
Like it went from a ratio of 0.1to a ratio of 0.25 in the course
(01:11:01):
of 10 years, and then in thecourse of the last 15 years,
it's gone from 0.25 back to 0.1.
And Mr.
Levinson was saying, I thinkhe's alluding to the notion it
double bottoms here, and it'smore evidence of a peak in US
equity prices.
Ah, I don't know.
I don't I don't think so.
(01:11:21):
I will be shading that chart anddiscussing that chart in the
Substack and the Patreon.
Again, I I I hope more of youwill join me there.
I did, didn't I?
I was meant I am meant to betalking about data and data
releases, and I did mention thisvery obtuse.
(01:11:44):
Oh my god, I was going to talkabout obtuse indicators again
and again, and I'm not going to.
Today, of course, we had the bigone was did we have ISM non-man
manufacturing?
I'm worried about hallucinationfrom the chat GPT.
I do know.
I do know we had an ADP, we hada private sector jobs report.
(01:12:07):
I know that it it beat, and Iknow we got a very robust,
better than expected, ISMservices expansion.
So I know those things are good.
I've been newly enjoying thework on Twitter.
I'm going to give him a goodshout out.
Look up Endgame Macro.
(01:12:29):
I think this kid, probably itcould be my father, I don't
know.
Could be my father, it could bemy son.
But he he is writing well, buthe was saying at the granula,
maybe that's something I'm meantto be providing.
The granular detail of theseeconomics, that's just that's
not something I do.
But the the release was ADPnon-farm employment for October,
(01:12:53):
and it printed 42,000 jobsadded.
The consensus was 32,000, so itwas a beat.
And we have to remember that inSeptember that was a negative.
That would job losses of 29,000.
But Mr.
Endgame Macro, I'm sure you'regetting a giggle for.
I hope you're you're listening.
(01:13:13):
Monsieur, well done.
But I was going through yourlittle threads, and excellent,
really, really good.
Most of the gains are comingfrom education, healthcare,
utilities, utilities created47,000.
Is that is that data centers?
I do not know.
But everything that signalshealthy, like discretionary
(01:13:37):
private sector demand,information.
I think information, well, thatwould be like data processing,
administration, down 17,000professional business services,
again, things that could beautomated with AI down 15,000.
So that's not so good.
And then he was saying, hey,look who's hiring large
companies.
They added 73,000.
(01:13:58):
So they're kind of they'rethey're oil tankers, they're
slower to turn.
And he was saying, butmedium-sized businesses that
don't have the luxury of holdingon, saying, Well, let's just
see.
Medium-sized businesses cut acombined 31,000.
And and wage growth, kind of thesame thing.
People are not really gettingpaid more.
(01:14:19):
Very small businesses betweenone less than 20 employees, two
and a half percent annual payrewards.
Yeah, well, what's he called?
Endgame mark.
What is the end game?
The end game is we look in themirror and we say, regardless of
how shitty today is, you say,you, you, my friend, I believe
(01:14:42):
in you.
SPEAKER_00 (01:14:42):
You got this.
SPEAKER_01 (01:14:45):
Where did that come from?
Oh, and I'm seeing more notesabout collateral.
Oh my god, I took lots of notes.
The uh some good chat might mayhave been from Mr.
Endgame Macro again.
But our question, are we in theare we in the early stages of a
collateral recession?
(01:15:07):
If so, then you're gonna behearing all these liquidity nut
jobs talking about theirliquidity indicator being
deteriorating.
When collateral dries up,leverage unwinds.
And it's not panic selling, it'sjust it's that kind of silent
(01:15:27):
tight.
I heard that the the amount ofcrypto that you can buy on
Argent is getting less and less.
I heard that the the the theleverage that they'll offer you
offer you if you if you cedeyour your Bitcoin to your bank.
And like if you present abillion dollars in Bitcoin,
you're like, hey, uh what willyou give me?
(01:15:49):
And like here's my equity, youknow, what kind of loan will you
give me?
It's getting less and less.
That could be a problem forstocks moving forward.
There was also a hallmark oftoday, or was it yesterday?
Or it was probably today, butcaused by yesterday's drop in in
share prices.
Was some really good articles,so um, some very compelling
(01:16:15):
arguments for why, like datacenters, dark fiber, that
there's a that it's railroadsthat we're building too much,
that the the implied profit isoverstated, that it's an arms
race between the US and theChinese, that it will require
(01:16:37):
fiscal deficits until the end ofmankind.
All I can say, and remember, Iam the idiot.
I need more water order.
All I can say to you is you willnot read.
(01:17:00):
I promise you.
You will not read the thenarrative that explains to you
why the stock in the bull marketwill end.
It will become known in theyears that follow.
(01:17:22):
It may be supposition in themonths and the years preceding
the high.
It will be dismissed or ignored.
It will even be dismissed andignored years after the peak in
equity prices.
(01:17:45):
That's all I'm saying.
Again, I'm reading you know,invoices, collateral, collateral
recession, tariffs, portactivity down ten to fifteen
percent, ten to fifteen.
I mean, it's either down ten orit's down fifteen.
These are big numbers, but Iwrote I I copied here down ten
(01:18:07):
to fifteen percent year overyear since late September.
What else have I got for you?
Oh my god, none of that.
Oh, I did have the Palantir.
Ooh, just had to go down andlook at your notes.
(01:18:27):
Yeah, market capitalizationpalantier, half a trillion
dollars.
Oh, it did make me giggle.
The French government.
I mean it gave it it gavepermission to this fashion, fast
fashion retailer, Shane Shine,S-H-E-I-N, gave it the right to
(01:18:48):
operate, to run its own bigdepartment store in Paris.
And they were just about toopen, like, ah, you can't open.
Why?
Because they discovered thatthey offer childlike sex tall
sex dolls on their third-partymarketplace.
I mean, I am not condoningchildlike sex dolls, but do we
(01:19:11):
care?
Uh, I mean, again, did I tell Idid tell you the the the Tokyo
bar that poisoned me, there'sthe strip bar, they did have
those two and they weren'tchildlike, they were very much
um very sexy, but like, youknow, over 20 years old um sex
dolls.
(01:19:31):
Um which I did I mean I Itouched the skin off.
And and the and they really didlook human.
Um apparently you can buy it.
Imagine my cleaning lady cominguh to make up the uh the uh to
make the bed and clean the floorin the master bedroom and and
being introduced to um Lucy theuh the sixth doll.
(01:19:54):
Don't think I can do that.
I found another motivationalquote of the day.
The privilege of a lifetime isto become who you truly are.
And I have to I have I'm I'mthanking you, ladies and
gentlemen, because you'relistening.
(01:20:15):
Um and I'm speaking.
I'm speaking too long.
What's the time though?
What's the time mister?
Oh my god, we're over an hour.
But you listen, I speak.
It's a great privilege.
You're allowing me to becometruly who I want to be.
Um I'm gonna leave you.
I am here, Henry.
(01:20:37):
I did forget to add the thewonderful music to Monday's
show.
Um I will add it tonight.
I'm gonna close before it's 10o'clock.
From the tropics where we haveno winter, to the normal
northern hemisphere where youwill see no light for six
(01:20:58):
months.
Take vitamin D pills.
Um, this is Hugh Henry.
This is Hugh Hendry, the assetcapitalist.
I am signing off.
Uh, until Friday, my friends, becareful.
Good night.
I'm coughing.
Oh my goodness, that must meanonly one thing is not end
recording.
We are recording.
We're on my blasted notes.
Ladies, ladies and gentlemen, itis I, Hugh Hendry.
I'm sitting outside again.
And it's windy.
(00:22):
I hope I don't mess up thesound.
Anyway, without other ado.
Remember, remember the 5th ofNovember.
Not vom not not vomiting?
Hmm.
Not bonfires.
But even that crafty chap, GuyFox.
Was he a Catholic or was heagainst the Protestants?
(00:44):
I can't remember.
Not a stiff upper ember ormember.
I'm here.
I'm your acid capitalist in thetropics.
With the sparks.
The sparks are divine.
Markets! Markets may flare.
It's been two days.
Since I last spoke.
Two days?
I don't know.
(01:05):
Since I last spoke to you.
Since I last tried tocommunicate with you, my
brothers and my sisters.
Markets flared.
They flared.
They flare up.
They flare down.
Here the rum flows.
I don't like rum, but every poemseems to need rum when you're in
the land of the pirate.
Madness aligns or does it.
(01:30):
Ladies and gentlemen, I am noconspirator.
I am simply your provocateur.
Seeking to light up that inkymind of yours and mine with some
economic fire.
Boom.
I think I should always beginwith a with a poem.
(01:52):
Because again, was Iprocrasticating?
I was, I was delaying action.
But that sounds as if you'redelaying it for a reason.
There was no good reason.
And I always feel like when youare delaying because you're
you're pensive.
But it sounds likeprevaricating.
Pensive.
I am a pensive mind.
(02:14):
I'm hesitant.
Little old me.
Oh my god.
I began like a hare running outof the box, chased by the
greyhounds on the like the frontcover of a blur album and
everything very South London.
(02:34):
I always feel self-confious.
Diffident.
Not to be confused, but defiant.
No, diffident.
Until I get going, I'm lacking alittle bit of confidence.
Not ready to assert myself.
(02:56):
I'm fearful.
I'm temporizing.
I'm cautious because I want it.
Oh my god, I'm taking a timecheck.
Okay, it is it is 26 minutes tonine o'clock in the evening.
Let's keep this going.
I'm cautious because I want itto be so good for you and for
(03:19):
me.
Right, Henry.
Shut up.
I am looking.
Do you know what I'm looking at?
Actually, I'm looking at FinViz.
There's another free F R free insame box.
F-R-E-E.
Speak slowly, Mr.
(03:40):
Henry.
I'm looking at the Dow Jones,the SP, the NASDAQ.
I'm looking at those charts.
And yeah, yesterday, we weren'ttalking yesterday, and markets
were down, but you would thinkit'd been a Z-score day.
It was not.
(04:01):
They were back up today.
And if anything, it just looksas if we had taken out the
enthusiastic grasping to buystocks early on as the weekend
gave over into this splendidweek.
(04:22):
Prices gapped.
There was an interruption inprices.
And they did quite trade atevery level.
And I think I I noted that I amof a generation, or otherwise, I
(04:46):
those with the supposition thatgaps, mind the gap.
They say that on the LondonUnderground.
Mind the gap.
Because the gaps get filled.
Kind of.
That's what it looks like.
The Nikai is one of thosewondrous charts, actually.
I like to look at these Japanesecandlesticks.
(05:10):
It's a representation of themarkets, the high, the low, the
close.
Oh my god, what is it?
High, the highest point of theday, the lowest point.
Oh, the opening and the close.
There, there are four pointswhich define these patterns.
And the practice of looking atthese patterns, daily patterns,
(05:37):
intra-day patterns, goes back, Ibelieve, as far back as I think
the 17th century, and Japaneserice traders.
So here we are looking at theNikkei 225.
And it's it's not a doji.
A doji is inside the day before.
(05:57):
I think is what is that?
Oh my god, I can't recall itsname, but the close was higher
than the opening, and both weresubstantially greater than the
intraday low.
(06:18):
And and so there was a sell-offintraday, which flushed out
sellers and was met by buying, Iguess, every you say his law,
supply creates its own demand.
That is true, but it typicallyhas or it can have price
consequences.
The price consequence the daybefore in Tokyo was modest.
(06:44):
The things you say when youbegin a podcast.
(07:13):
A bearish engulfing pattern.
What's that all about?
I don't think it's a hugeamount.
I think I think I I definitelydo not know, but possibly.
We did, remember, remember, the5th of November.
(07:33):
And we did receive did wereceive or they started?
The Supreme Court started takingnotes and hearing about these
tariffs and the legality.
And there was some nervouschatter that the nature of the
(07:58):
questions from the suprememembers of the highest court may
lead one to suspect that theyare suspicious of the legality
of the president's use of hispower.
And that if they were to ruleagainst, then what happens to
(08:22):
the 30 yards, the thirty billiondollars per month of tariff or
tax revenue that has become animportant fiscal consideration
in taming this out of controlspending by Washington.
(08:45):
Maybe that's what was going ontoday.
But the really, really big thingwas happening up the coastline
from me in New York.
Where they did it.
They did it on a record turnout.
(09:07):
The good citizens of New Yorkwent bonkers.
The first thing I read thismorning was from the new from
what is it called?
Zorb Zorban.
Thank you to those so oftenforgotten by the politics of our
(09:30):
big city.
Those who made this mo thismovement, they made it their
own.
I speak of the Yemeni Bodega.
The Yemeni?
I cannot speak.
Yemeni.
Yemeni.
Not Yosemite, but Yemeni, thebrothers, the Arab African
(09:55):
brothers, the Yemeni Bodegaowners, the Mexican Abulas.
I had to look up Abulas.
I think that means grandmothers.
The Sengales, oh my god, theSengese taxi drivers and the
Uzbekistan nurses.
SPEAKER_00 (10:14):
And more than honorable mention to the
Trinidadian cooks and theEthiopian aunties.
Yes, it's not me saying yes.
Zorban, the mayor, he said yes,the aunties.
SPEAKER_01 (10:32):
May I remind you, this is the citadel of finance,
or maybe I should say pasttense.
The people.
The tyranny of the many.
We complain about deficits, butat the at the polling booth,
it's like spend me the money.
SPEAKER_00 (10:56):
Spend me the money.
And remarkable.
Remarkable.
There's no mention.
There's no mention of theAmerican worker.
Quite astonishing.
SPEAKER_01 (11:09):
Yemeni, Mexican, Sengalese, Uzbekistan,
Trinidadian, Trinadian, andEthiopian.
And I was on the the Twitter.
(11:30):
Not a lot.
I'm trying to get I'm trying to.
It's not healthy the time Ispent on the the Twitter.
But there's a a new, I think anew service.
Code Motivational Quotes of theDay at Q U O D A Y.
An honourable mention.
And and they had me in there.
(11:51):
They had a dreadful, I mean, Ithink I'm quotable.
They had the worst quote from meever.
One that goes along the lines ofyou can take the boy out of
Glasgow, but you can't take theGlasgow out of the boy.
And I I tapped them up and like,thank you.
I mean, you know, I I'mappreciative of any interest.
(12:13):
But I think I I think we coulddo better.
And I gave them what did I givethem.
I don't know if I I I am goingto attempt.
I am going to attempt to press avideo.
I wonder if you will be able tohear it.
Let's go.
(12:33):
No, it would seem I wouldrecommend you panic.
What?
I would recommend you panic.
I'm sorry, what?
I would recommend you panic.
I'm sorry, what?
I would recommend you panic.
Oh my god, who is that guy?
Like, mmm.
The asset capital is on on BBCNews tonight.
(12:54):
A long, long time ago.
Am I recommending you panictoday?
Don't think I am, but I'll comeback to that.
The core day, however, they havethey have a quote from Alan
Watts.
Alan Watts has a remarkable, aremarkable voice, a remarkable
(13:16):
life, a philosopher, kind ofmeditation, and a scholar, I
mean, an enchanting voice, andvery, very clever.
No longer with us, sadly.
Um, but the the quote of the daywas to go out of your mind once
a day is tremendously important.
(13:40):
Because by by going out of yourmind, new majors come to your
senses.
I like it, I love it.
The same, however, I don'tthink, can be said of the New
York decision with their mayor.
Who who am I to say?
(14:01):
I don't live there.
I can't see.
I'm looking through my notesbecause I'm trying to see.
There was so much vitriolwritten, I'm sure.
I because I I take littlepictures of things that I read
so that I can share it with you.
Oh, yeah.
Uh so the Financial Times, theCommie Times, the newspaper, the
(14:24):
newspaper.
Let me do it justice.
The newspaper for the Yemeni,Yemeni bodega owners, for the
Mexican abulas, for the Sengesetaxi drivers, and the Uzbeki
nurses, for the Trinidadian limecooks and the Ethiopian aunties,
(14:47):
we have the pink financialnewspaper, the Financial Times,
and its take on the the Merrillraces last night.
Analysts, analysts saidRepublicans acros across across
(15:07):
the board losses showed voterswere largely dissatisfied with
the president's performance tenmonths into his second term.
Boom, boom, boom.
I don't I I beg to differ.
And I don't think there was anyany great surprise.
(15:28):
Like democratic, like you know,areas that voted, and they went
comp they really went completelybonkers.
Is the country ready to gocompletely bonkers?
I don't know, I don't think so.
And and Trump would be welladvised to be presidential, just
(15:49):
say, yeah, let's just give ittime.
Let's let's see how it how itrolls.
But that was the first thing Iread this morning.
It did make me laugh.
One of the charts I'm lookingat, oh my goodness, I I actually
(16:10):
you're listening to the podcast,but I record this thing and I
put on a shirt, and I'm sittingoutside, and in my fan.
It's too noisy, so I switched itoff.
I'm feeling hot.
Anyway, the dollar was writtenoff by the Financial Times and
(16:34):
written off by the superiorintellectual middle brow, and
was down, I think, at one pointdown about 10, 11, 12% on the
year.
And it is staging something of acomeback.
It is the dollar, the Dixie, theDXY, which is largely the euro
(16:59):
dollar, is just about just above100.
And so down about 10% on theyear.
And if we were to go back to theyear 2023 when it peaked at 115,
it's down about 15%.
And I I've certainly had I'veseen chatterings, I've seen
(17:23):
speculative rents, some, notall, not Trader Mike.
Trader Mike is just too busy.
Trader Mike in the last threeyears has made back to back to
back six six to six zero percentgains.
He is not playing in the dollarindex.
(17:44):
I mentioned the dollar perhapsbecause it's talismatic, and I
think is maybe the bestindicator of liquidity.
Wow, I suddenly I think I'veopened a door, and I think I
know the next five or sixsentences.
(18:06):
The talismatic dollar.
I like to look at it because Ifeel it's one of the clearest
indicators of collateral.
And behind every good man therelies collateral, not a lady.
Of course, there's a lady, butyou know, the the the phantom of
(18:29):
liquidity seen everywhere, lotsof hocus pocus financial
services.
There's many a YouTube channel,there's many a guru out there
becoming rich, selling bogusliquidity indicators.
Bogus, that's what I say to you,they're all bogus.
(18:52):
But the dollar's not a badindicator of liquidity.
And no surprise that it's fallenfifteen percent.
So if you were a reverseindicator, the the uh the dollar
is the reserve currency, it isdollars, it is dollars that move
(19:17):
or power asset prices globallyand powers them higher.
When there are more dollarschasing assets, then asset
prices rise.
And what did I say?
(19:38):
We the the the late 22 peakcoincides with you know the the
pro the profound sell-off thatwe saw.
I'm saying profound sell-off,and as always, I'm of the type
that I'm always questioningmyself.
I'm bringing up the the spy, I'mlooking at the SP 500, so in
(20:00):
five years and end of 22.
Yeah, yeah.
So to remind ourselves for yeah,for that that 2021 markets
really tanked, really tanked.
We fell from like 500 to to 350,30 percent.
(20:23):
So dollars were being set onfire, liquidity was contracting.
You know, if the if the marketcapitalization of of stocks is
two times GDP, so s almost sixtysix zero trillion dollars, and
(20:45):
the market the market fallsthirty percent, then the market
capitalization has fallen byeighteen trillion dollars.
Eighteen thousand billion USdollars have vanished.
That's that's the liquidity thatI talk about.
(21:07):
And so dollars have becomescarcer, more valued, more
needed to survive.
People bid for the dollar, notthe asset, not the stock market,
not the private equity, not pronot real estate, but cash
(21:28):
dollars.
So the the bottom of the market,the stock market, kind of first
of October 2022, coincides withpeak dollar.
And the SP or I'm looking, I'musing the the spider, the ETF,
(21:53):
of course, has moved higher from350 to what 680.
And so we've added againprobably 18.
We've added 27 trillion dollars.
So dollars are now plentiful orhave been plentiful, and the
dollar index had has fallen,fallen from 115, and what did I
(22:17):
say?
The low had been oh my god, I'mlooking at Bitcoin.
We'll come back to Bitcoin.
I promise you, remind me if Iforget.
Um yeah, we we'd moved 115 to 9to 95 on the Dixie as dollars
became plentiful.
(22:38):
Now, how did dollars becomeplentiful?
It's worth mentioning againbecause it's very much in vogue.
And and this tiny little risefrom 95 to 100 again in the
dollar index is so if themarket's gonna sell off, stock
(23:03):
market's gonna sell off, you'regonna be destroying dollars
again, and at some pointthere'll be a clamor, a desire
on the part of financialspeculative institutions,
there'll be a need for them tohave more dollars, so they'll
bid for dollars and they'll sellother currencies, and the dollar
(23:23):
will rise once more.
Now, if you're gonna see a25-30% decline in the stock
market, so similar to the year2021.
Um that dollar index is gonna goway higher.
(23:49):
But let's discuss how thathappens.
Liquidity, this damn wordliquidity, is like the wind.
I I mean I've literally toldChat GPT that it is it is banned
from EM dashes.
Do you know what an EM dash is?
(24:09):
EM dash are those things thatnewspapers use, and I think they
come off the old-fashionedAmerican typewriter.
It's a it's a double dashwithout a space, an elongated
dash.
An artificial intelligence andreports crafted from such or
(24:32):
crafted or assisted.
It's become almost like the DNAof AI, the the selfish gene.
And it's the the the our purposeon earth is to propagate, to
receive our DNA and to pass iton to another generation.
The great sin would be ourfailure to pass on our DNA.
(24:56):
And in a similar manner, itwould seem that the machines,
the progeny of the machine, I'mmaking this up, of course, is
the EM dash.
And try as I may, I cannoteliminate the damn EM dash.
Anyway, em dashes and the theglib use.
(25:16):
They've been speaking for 20minutes, the glib use of
liquidity are my bugbears ofmodern life.
And I was telling you, I wastelling you about one of my
great substack or Patreon,patrons, patrons, you know, like
(25:38):
a support someone who supportsmy creative endeavors.
I ask you all to please buy ahat or a membership to the
summer camp or become asubstacker.
Um I turned the transcript theother day into a super essay,
(26:01):
and we expanded further on thetrader mic's option trading.
Today I think he made you knowtoday.
The Solano was up and he's inthe two times, and he he bought
a lot of options yesterday.
Did he say he made$100,000today?
I don't know.
(26:23):
One do you know one of his legsand legs, but one of his delta
long positions in Bitcoin?
And he's not sure about Bitcoinlike any of us today.
Right now.
He's typically very willing toopen himself up to downside risk
(26:45):
in Bitcoin, but less so justnow.
And maybe that has something todo with liquidity.
But yeah, he's running like injust one of his positions, I
think he has four or five.
Bullishly predicated,directionally bullishly
predicated trades in Bitcoin.
(27:06):
One is it, eight million bucks.
I mean, Mike swings work.
Bitcoin Bitcoin, Bitcoin.
Oh yeah, that and I was theidiot.
I'm sure I wrote something.
Let me look in my downloadfolder.
Downloads.
And let me I I should reallyprepare the i idiot.
(27:31):
The idiot, I think, is referringto that famous Damn, there's
nothing there.
Okay, I'm gonna have to.
I'm gonna have to get into theChat GPT.
But you know, it's a it is a isit Dostoyevsky, the idiot.
(27:54):
Tell me more, Mr.
unknown (27:59):
Mr.
SPEAKER_01 (27:59):
Chat GPT, don't let me down.
I did this the other day,actually, but I I used the voice
prompt and then I um I promptlystopped recording, unknown to
me.
The idiot by Fyodor DostoyDostoyevsky.
And it it is a Russian novelthat was conceived and written
(28:23):
one hundred years before I wasborn.
A young man whose innocence, hishonesty, and his compassion.
Oh my god, I feel I feel aconnection.
(28:44):
Maybe not young man, but I'm I'mthe youngest.
Mind you meet.
But and it's true, innocence,more lost than it's I'm I never
lost my innocence.
I'm seeking to lose myinnocence.
Please help me lose myinnocence.
(29:07):
My honesty, I don't you can't betoo honest.
You know, I think my ex-wifewould say to me, you would do
yourself a big favor if youcould keep a few secrets.
Hostage.
Example to the to the jury, likementioning the coconut oil is a
sexual lubricant.
We don't need to know that.
(29:28):
Why are we talking about it now?
And compassion, I hope I'mcompassionate.
I'm tough, but I mean, toughknow is tough.
But I'm not I'm definitelypassionate.
Compassion?
I want to say I I havecompassion.
And and put it all together, andand definitely people people
(29:52):
call me an idiot all the time.
And I don't even exist in thecynical high society of St.
Petersburg.
So it's a book exploring themoral purity in a corrupt world.
I mean, I feel like I'm a kid ina corrupt world.
The tension between idolism andrealism, don't know what that
(30:15):
means.
Love and obsession.
Love and obsession.
Love is an obsession.
Obsession is a love, surely.
The clash between faith andmodern modernity.
I'm definitely into that.
Modernity.
Why does the idiot matter?
(30:35):
Because Mishkin.
Mishkin is God.
Oh my god, was I comparingmyself to God?
I'm too good for this world.
I'm too good for you all.
Can pure goodness survive in aflawed society?
Wow.
I mention all of that.
(30:58):
There's no I don't know why Imentioned all of that, but I can
take that further.
I can vibe with that.
So Mishkin and his M Y, M Y ifyou're French.
S-H K-I-N.
But there was a former, Ibelieve he was a former Fed
(31:18):
governor.
And back in the day, it wouldhave been 2007.
I was what was I?
I was I was I was honest andcompassionate and innocent, and
I had amassed a monstrouslypreposterous short position in
(31:43):
the Icelandic cod krona.
And I was long both the euro andthe dollar, the Dixie.
And I think I had amassed one ofthe most pro preposterously
large uh positions ever seen.
(32:06):
What is the talk amongstyourselves?
What is the GDP of Iceland?
And let me hint to you is not alot.
Yeah.
It's 33 yards.
(32:28):
33 yards.
I mean, what is that?
One percent of Amazon?
And I think I was at one pointtwo hundred million dollars
long, and and therefore theequivalent short, the the
corona.
And and I hope you know thebackground and the reason it um
(32:49):
it it became a thefinancialization, it was the
Russian money actually, butcoming in uh so a tiny little
satellite country.
Uh why would you ever hold cashin the Icelandic krona?
(33:09):
It's preposterous.
But here we were in 2004, five,six, seven.
We were in the years followingthe NASDAQ crash when Alan
Greenspan had taken interestrates in America on the dollar
down to one percentunprecedented.
(33:30):
And a carry trade of what it wascreated by Iceland paying you
five, six, seven percent.
Hmm, okay, and and so itattracted capital inflow, and
that money resided as depositswith the banks.
(33:54):
There weren't that many moneymarket funds, it was deposits,
and a deposit for a bank is aliability, and the bank will
take the the the inflow and itfeels compelled to create an
asset, which is a loan.
And there's just so much moneycoming in that again unsupply
(34:15):
overwhelms the census.
And God, I didn't think I'd betalking about this, and and so
the banks were fundingeverything, uh, lots of idiotic
things, and it it wasn't gonnalast.
(34:35):
And as the drama and the cry andthe the suspense and the
realization that the world wason a precipe, Iceland was
raising interest rates becausethe atr the the principle, the
only attraction of Iceland wasthis high carry.
(34:58):
But then the Fed was raisinginterest rates.
Remember, oil in 2007 got toalmost$150,$150 more than twice
its level today, and and sointerest rates really had to be
high, punishingly high inIceland, 15%.
And so it was like it was justeasy, it was gonna fall over.
(35:23):
And they kind of knew that, butthe the central bank of Iceland
contracted, consulted with thisegghead, this renowned economist
who had had the premature ofhaving sat on the Federal
Reserve Interest Rate SettingCommittee and an academic
taboot.
(35:44):
And he got paid$100,000.
They didn't really advertisethat, they didn't really promote
that in the front page of theFinancial Times, but they took
his name and they said, Crisisproblem, Iceland's amazing.
And 907.
Wow, 30 minutes I've beenspeaking to no end.
(36:05):
That cost me a lot of money thatday.
Michigan, I call, I think ofhim, and forgive me, I'm sure
he's a charming and a wonderfulindividual, but nah.
Shame on him was was what Ithought.
I definitely thought of him asbeing an idiot when the ultimate
crisis befell Iceland.
(36:32):
The idiot, not Dostoevsky, butmy my my uh my my wonderful
substacker or Patreon wrote tome saying that he had I think
he's German.
And he's very knowledgeable, hehas a great base level of
understanding of the financialsystem.
Is he one of the mysteriousfive?
(36:54):
I mean, who knows?
But he was saying that he he hadwatched, and well done him.
He'd watched one of these uhFrench television channels,
Arte, I'm sure you don'tpronounce the E, but A-R-T-E.
And it actually had a programdedicated to the Euro dollar,
(37:16):
the Euro dollar offshore dollarmoney printing, gig, business,
empire, and according to ARTE,the French channel, and you the
presumption must be it's RT, no,but they were making claims
(37:37):
which I would absolutely uphold,which is that you know, so we're
talking money, forgive me, thisis laborious, we're talking
money, or the creation of money,and what is money, and we're I'm
trying to frame it in thecontext of liquidity.
(37:57):
The popular conception of moneyis that it's created, and I
alluded to it in the instance ofIceland, that money rushes into
deposits, and the banks seekcorresponding, which is that
which is a liability of thebank, the private bank, private
sector bank, and therefore theledger must balance, and so it
(38:17):
has a a need to find assets, andthere are only really two assets
for a bank, and we can lend tothe government, so it would buy
a bond, or it would lend to youand I and corporations and
mortgages and the like, andthat's this kind of money
printing, and so in America, M0is high-powered money.
(38:44):
What is high-powered money?
High-powered money is a form ofbanking collateral.
Collateral, there's a word.
I'm gonna expand upon that, butit's very much at the women
controlled by the FederalReserve.
Um, and it's the and it'smatched by it.
(39:07):
The reserves are like thekryptonide of the financial
system, which allow banks andtheir fractional reserve
reserves, fractional reserves,they turn those reserves and
into much larger pools of money,which we call M2.
And so the high-powered money orM0 in America today is like four
(39:30):
and a half trillion dollars, andbroad money is$22 trillion.
So it's being magnified byprivate sector banks lending,
and as they lend that createsdeposits and then reserves and
is circular and it expands.
But what the idiot was pointingout from the the French TV show
(39:56):
was more money, and I definitelyI've said this before, so wow,
to be the corroboration comes atyou from very distant and and
and not so obvious places.
More money is created by theEurodollar system, and that
money does not reside or is notcaptured in high-powered M0 or
(40:18):
M2, and because those aredomestic measures, and and and
the dollar today is largelycreated outside the jurisdiction
of the Federal Reserve andoutside the sovereignty of the
United States.
It's an invisible liquidity.
(40:43):
It's the liquidity that comes,like I said, we we tend to think
of mutual funds or hedge fundsas like a billion-dollar mutual
fund, and it would spend abillion dollars on equities.
It does not.
It pledges the billion dollarsas collateral and it gets
leverage and it buys many moreequities.
(41:05):
There's no bank accountmovement, there's no ledger
movement that is captured by theFederal Reserve.
Federal Reserve does not know.
That's what the point of ARTE inFrance was making.
Wow, the Federal Reserve doesnot know the magnitude of dollar
creation.
Think about that.
(41:27):
Now, within that long, was itcomplex or waffly statement of
mine?
I I I hesitated there becausethere was a gust of wind and it
it lifted the protective coverfrom the sunbed, and I now see
(41:51):
it floating less than elegantlyin my beautiful swimming pool.
I mentioned collateral, andthere's been there's a lot of
talk about collateral, andthere's a lot of talk about the
plumbing of the of the onshoreAmerican financial
(42:12):
establishment, and it hasimplications for onshore money
creation, and and very neat thatso collateral we mentioned the
collateral of your billiondollar mutual fund that's an
equity mutual fund.
(42:37):
But a collateral is being formedhere, there, and everywhere.
The you have an Americanimporter and a Chinese exporter.
There is an invoice, a dollarinvoice to be paid to the
Chinese exporter.
(42:58):
The invoice in the last fewyears onshore, private equity
companies and the like, they'relike, wow, facting, that's an
asset.
We can sell that.
And we can sell that as anasset, a lot, an asset then
creates liabilities likedeposits in the banks.
The facturization of the invoiceis like a bank deposit, but a
(43:21):
non-recorded bank deposit.
But it creates dollar creation.
And remember, we're talkingabout the last few years where
the the spider, the ETF of theSP, what did we say had gone
from 350 at the end of 2021,going into 2022?
(43:43):
From 352 to 670, 680, stockprices have gone up because
there's been a lot of dollarcreation.
And and the Dixie, the DXY has,to repeat myself, has fallen 20
points.
Um and think about what wasgoing on.
(44:04):
I mean, the Chinese tradesurplus has just positively
exploded.
You know, there was the what wasI saying in the last podcast
that Besints got Bescent and thesubtitle machine, if it's
listening, is B, is it B-E-S-SE-N-T or is it A N T.
(44:27):
I'm no good at subtitles.
We're saying 42% of theinflation of COVID was egregious
overproduction of US governmentspending.
But it un it unlocked once we rewe reopened the international
(44:47):
supply system, which was veryrapid, a tsunami of
imports-exports, facturization,phantom or otherwise, but
collateral being created, andcollateral that has its own
fractional reserve system,whereby a hundred dollars of
facturization might give riseto, I don't know, a hundred
(45:09):
might give rise to a thousanddollars of of new money.
And and and of and of verylatest chapter, so it's a
chapter that began late 2021four years ago.
(45:29):
So in the last year, of course,there'd been really an
acceleration in invoicingAmerican imports, Chinese and
otherwise exports into theUnited States.
Gasping to take a glass of uhdrink of water, an acceleration
on the basis of beating the damntariff.
(45:52):
Beating the damn tariff.
So trying to land and getexports, dollar side, American
site, um, created a surge in ininvoicing, which just one
element of dollar creation andliquidity.
(46:13):
We now have the tariffs.
I I I think I've seen I mean theUS.
The import bill from the Chinesehas fallen has fallen
considerably.
Considerably, and these are bignumbers.
I think I'm 40 minutes into thisthing.
I'm hoping that if I keep timingmyself, I may there will not be
(46:38):
well, maybe there's lucidity,but you know, brevity.
Brevity, please.
Less invoicing.
Less invoicing means uh month onmonth, quarter on quarter, year
over year.
Liquidity and and theacceleration.
There's no acceleration,contraction, perhaps.
(47:02):
Um I saw something.
Where are my notes?
This was all just like made upoff the top of my head.
Where are my notes?
There was an article that I sawtoday that came from an
interview on CNBC tracking thefreight market.
(47:22):
Apparently, freight, you know,the transport intermediate or
finished goods, US truckingvolumes.
Interstate flat.
Out of state, so kind of comingin from the ports on the west
coast and then being put intothe to be distributed across the
(47:45):
landmass of the United States.
Uh no, this is a CMBC headlineuh from Craig Fuller.
Freight waves, these are CEO.
According to him, truckingvolumes drop 17% year over year.
(48:05):
I mean, think of that as a 17%correct correction, contraction,
it may be in liquidity.
And and we've seen some somehairy we well, we've seen credit
failures.
In the in the high yield world.
(48:26):
And then we're beginning to seethings going on in terms of
regional banks that have beenweak.
Um, so there's the the murkyhidden world of dollar creation,
which has been on a pump higherand has taken equity prices
(48:48):
higher and higher, is straininga little bit.
So we're watching that.
The dollar index itself still ashitty chart.
Shitty, I don't know how to callit.
I I would not commit my life andmy reputation to the the Dixie,
the dollar index.
(49:10):
Marcus felt very weak yesterday,and there was a lot of people
rushing to call the top.
And I don't know.
I I did, it it made me laugh.
(49:32):
Laugh.
I don't know if I laughed.
I'm not the giggling type.
I may have been supercilious.
A great word, and my eyebrowsmay have twitched.
When I read about the CEOs ofthe big Wall Street investment
(49:57):
banks, and they were at aconference somewhere, and and
they were all saying, and thethe headline was stock bills get
wake up call from Wall StreetCEOs, the CEO of Goldman Sachs
and Morgan Stanley predicting a10 to 20% equity drawdown in the
next 12 to 24 months.
Goldman CEO and DJ David Solomonuse the irrational exuberance.
(50:24):
Now, apart from the irrationalexuberance.
Was I not saying to you that forthe market to continue melting
up, it would be normal, and Iwould say more than normal, it
(50:49):
would be a prerequisite almostthat we should witness 15 to 20%
violent pullbacks back to theone-year moving average.
And again, I I was in the DAM,the chat GPT, and I do have a a
(51:11):
Hugh Hendry GPT, and I was gonnasay to my superphones.
Who are my superphones?
But um, I feel like I'd I'd wantto share my I I could how would
I do that?
I want to share my GPT.
So this has all of my it's apretty groovy GPT.
(51:32):
It has all of my investmentletters, and it has my
mysterious memoir that I'vewritten, but for um for
frustrating reasons, the uhdisturbance in the universe with
the ghostwriter.
(51:53):
I don't want to say anythingmore about the ghostwriter.
I'm just I just want to yeah, Ihaven't really put it out, but I
and I was telling you about theTwitter quote of the day people.
So I was like, oh, you know, Iwent to my GPT.
I was like, I'm a quotable guy.
(52:14):
Give me some quotes, and let mesee if I can find it, but well,
let me share what it came upwith.
Number one on the list wasyou're all fucking idiots, which
you described as the purestopener in modern financial
literature, punk biblical,instantly recognizable as HH.
(52:36):
My response to that was reallyyou are you're not a fucking
idiot, you're fucking lazy, Mr.
GPT.
SPEAKER_00 (52:43):
You've just taken the first quote from my book,
the first literally the firstpage, and you're trying to serve
that to me as that's it.
You you get in, you get stuckin, and you find me more.
SPEAKER_01 (52:59):
Second one was I like the second one.
See, you tell me I'm a financialliberace, but the musical notes
that I play are concocted fromthe price charts of stocks,
bonds, and currencies.
Yippy D, yippy dah.
I like that one.
That's peak me.
(53:19):
Macro delirium.
I like that one.
I was like a shaman.
No, I was a guard dog ofcapitalism.
I like that one.
Anyway, I was searching for, andit comes from my investment
letter of December 2004.
(53:40):
The malicious, this is me.
I am Michigan, I am the idiot.
The malicious nature of marketsis that they have a tendency to
pull stocks back periodically totheir one year moving average.
(54:01):
Such price price violencecauses, I wrote, causes much
unease.
You bet it does, and it'sdesigned to weaken one's
intellectual determination.
Boom, boom.
Macro Zen master vibing, fearand discipline in one breath.
(54:24):
And I think again, that's kindof what I was saying the other
night that bull markets havethese profound draw drawdowns.
And we're all apostles.
We think we've seen the AIfuture and we've seen the
profits at the end of therainbow.
But somewhere, somewhere in that20.
I mean, if the index moves 25%,you know, your Solana is gonna
(54:46):
be down 60, your salt, your twotimes leverage is gonna be
eviscerated.
And somewhere along thatcapricious journey, you're like,
well, Jesus, well, the guy withthe beard, the funny shoes,
yeah, I don't know him.
Don't know him, don't know him.
Shut up, me right so we've donethat.
I'm gonna I'm going back to mynotes.
This is meant to be a programwhere we talk about economic
(55:09):
data.
Now, I I have to tell you, aTritomite was like, he's really
obsessed by this, and rightly sothat AI and the the coming
implosion in jobs.
And he sent me a Goldman Sachspiece of research.
It's a bar chart.
Exhibit five.
(55:30):
One fourth.
One fourth.
That was a funny word.
One why don't they just say aquarter of current work tasks
could be automated by thedreaded AI in the United States
and Europe?
A quarter.
Most at risk, with a rate ofalmost 46%.
(55:50):
One in two of all tasks I ammending to read this thing.
Office and administrationsupport, gone.
Lego, 44% of those tasks gone.
Architecture and engineering,37% gone.
I tell you, the damn architectsdrive me crazy.
At the other end of thespectrum, only 4% of the tasks
(56:15):
at risk in the installation,maintenance, and repair.
I had 25 such individuals at myhouse today.
There were eight white vans Iparked in the exterior to have
some flexibility.
1% of all tasks in the buildingand ground clearing and
(56:37):
maintenance profession.
Become a plumber, people.
Become a plumber.
SPEAKER_00 (56:45):
And did I again forgive me?
SPEAKER_01 (56:51):
Am I using the same notes from the other night?
Maybe.
So far this year, job cuts arejust shy of a million job cuts,
946,000.
The highest in five years,pandemic, there were just over 2
million job cuts announced.
It's up 55% from last year.
So it kind of feels kind offunky.
(57:12):
And again, people getting alittle bit shifty, a little bit
nervous.
And the fifth highest in the 36years of Challenger.
So kind of something'shappening.
Probably the main thing that'shappening is um is more like
(57:35):
companies just are not willingto commit to new hires.
I think that's the biggest issuejust now.
So people don't know.
And they they feel like ifyou're a corporation, but what I
want to say is two-thirds of oureconomy is made up of you and I,
(57:56):
wages, and the return to us ofour efforts.
And it gives rise to an economicterm which is called the fallacy
of composition.
And so it seems like a really,really smart thing at the
granular level, at the corporatelevel.
I'm a bit worried about theeconomy.
(58:17):
I'm going to let some people go.
And that might be good for yourprofits.
But if every company does that,then you're effectively firing
the ultimate consumers of yourcollective goods and services.
And so you are actually thearchitect of voluntary revenue
(58:38):
contraction.
And companies are leveraged,they've got a lot of fixed cost
components, which they have tomeet, regardless of revenues
being down, flat, or higher.
And so any movement in revenueis typically double, triple
leveraged via profits.
So fallacy of composition iswhat makes sense at the single
(59:00):
company level or the singleconsumer level when you elevate
it to the macro.
It can be bad news.
So all of these tasks that canbe eliminated.
And remember, we're talkingabout a damn system that cannot
calculate compound annual growthrates, that struggles with
(59:21):
documents where the number ofwords are greater than 6,000.
I mean, it's a damn computer.
Why is it struggling with 6,000word documents?
Why can it not calculatecompound annual growth rates?
But apparently it can eliminateabout 50% of all legal
administrative services.
Go figure.
But if you were to lay off allthose people at the economic, at
(59:44):
the at the macroeconomic level.
The utility, the utility offeredby all these redundant legal
(01:00:05):
paralegals, maybe they'll becomemusicians and they write books
and they sing songs and theyentertain us.
Anyway, the day before today wasTuesday, and you know, we're
barren with regard to economicstatistics, but the the big one,
which is normally just ignored,but you know, in a in a day of
(01:00:29):
uh nothing going on, thestandout was the RCM.
The TIPP, the economic optimismindex for November.
I've never heard of it.
And it's notable, notablebecause I will not use the
decimal points, but it was justshy of 44, and it was well below
(01:00:52):
the expected, just above 48, andit was down from the prior
reading of 48.
And and it's a consumerconfidence type index.
So, you know, people gettingpeople getting a little bit
itchy.
And then yesterday, MichaelBury, Bury, Bury, Bury, Bury.
(01:01:17):
I didn't realize he was managingso much money.
And he revealed in his hedgefund they'd taken a billion
dollars short in Palantir.
Which Alex Carp was describingas like batshit crazy.
Why would you do that?
(01:01:40):
Maybe you would do that becausePalantir.
Palantir, Palantir, Palantir.
I mean, I love Alex, but hisstock is really hard.
It's really, really come on,Alex.
It's really, really hard.
I damn, I didn't take a snapshotof this, so again, I'm gonna
have to speak to you and try anddo this.
But let's do Palantir P A L E.
(01:02:05):
Was it A Palan?
What is I think Palantir meanssomething like profoundly Greek
and preposterously.
What is your price?
I mean it's gone from five bucksto two hundred and thirty bucks,
but uh the the key statistics onbar chart, bar chart should
(01:02:30):
sponsor me.
I'm giving them shout-outs allthe time.
I mean it's it was a half atrillion dollar company and
revenue revenue with withoutgiggling historically was just
(01:02:50):
shy of three billion, half atrillion for three billion and
and of course are growingrapidly.
So let's say next year revenuesare are are six trillion.
You know, like half a trilliondollars for that.
But but you should note thatwhen they say Burry had a
(01:03:15):
billion dollar short position,yeah.
Liar, liar, pants on fire.
We have no idea the net positionhe had he had on.
They they they were quotingelements of an option strategy,
but you don't know what the netposition.
Well done, Michael.
He got a lot of headlines, andthe I mean, well done.
I he probably doesn't want theheadline, but beware of
(01:03:37):
headlines like that, they don'tmean much.
And I I have to say, I would beprofoundly suspicious of how
great a short position, if any,Michael Burry had actually
adopted because there is a proway of doing things.
He is obviously the pros pro.
(01:03:59):
And you don't short charts likePalantir.
Palantir reg.
We we live in a in a new world.
This decade is different fromprevious decades.
The proliferation of themeritocracy, the the
(01:04:22):
accessibility of stock tradinghas given rise to meme stocks,
stocks and and asset classeslike gold and bitcoin.
And don't go into Twitter orother echo chambers and try and
argue with people.
This is religion, and Palantiris a meme.
(01:04:46):
You don't go from five bucks to230 bucks in the space of what?
Whoa, there you go.
From remember what we we weresaying, we were saying that huge
drawdown, which I may havealluded to 21, and I probably
meant to say 2022, that 30%contraction in the spider index.
That the bidding up of the USdollar as liquidity shrunk as$18
(01:05:10):
trillion of equity valuation waseviscerated, extinguished, and
then on the other side, thedollar creation, the collateral
from dollar invoicing and andfacturization et al.
and many, many other things.
The the the two trillion dollarsa year of fiscal uh treasury
(01:05:36):
deficits et al.
Stock goes from five bucks to230.
That is meme, and you as aprofessional investor, you you
do not short that.
You do not short anything whereyou you could never, never
envisage or or or create anargument that that would say
(01:05:58):
Palantir, as wonderful as carpis, as wonderful as that company
is going to become, would go toa half a trillion dollar market
capitalization.
And having done so, it makesredundant any expectation that
you you have of calling what itdoes next.
The only point I would make isis like where is my telephone?
(01:06:23):
It is 188.
God, now I'm into an hour.
I'm gonna have to do I startspeaking more rapidly.
This this episode is brought toyou, however, by my lack of
imagination.
I've I paid a little bit more tothe podcast platform, Buzz
Sprout, and and I believe I'mgonna get chapters, so you can
(01:06:44):
just choose your chapters.
But I was saying that theprincipal issue is price is
about one eight eight movingaverage, one year is 127, 61
divided by 188.
I can all hear you saying it'sabout 30, 33 percent above its
one-year moving average, um, andit will pull back.
(01:07:04):
Palantir, meme or no meme, I'mvery confident in saying that
Palantir will have a 40 to 50percent drawdown and will
probably make new highs.
Boom.
Is Apple right?
Where'd that come from?
I put that in huge, unromantic,very, very high font size, so
(01:07:26):
I'd I would see it.
Is Apple right?
Again, this was kind ofsomething that Trader Mike was
just saying in passing.
What is Apple not doing?
It is not plowing hundreds ofbillions of dollars into opening
(01:07:46):
data centers.
It's just not there with AI.
SPEAKER_00 (01:07:49):
It's like, yeah, you you you want you we we will we
will partner with you.
You spend the money, we gotcustomers, we're over here.
Let us know how it works.
SPEAKER_01 (01:07:59):
No AI spend, let the others do it.
Is Apple right?
SPEAKER_00 (01:08:05):
I mean, I don't know, but I think that's an
interesting question, and thestock's kind of been flat this
year.
SPEAKER_01 (01:08:21):
Is Apple the new consumer?
What is what do we call thesethings?
Are they discretionary andnon-discretionary?
Staples.
Mr.
Levinson.
Was it Levinson or was it hisyoung progeny?
Was it was it Ben Ben Bray?
Um or maybe both sent me a Ychart a chart package, which was
(01:08:45):
a ratio of the XLP, which is theconsumer staples ETF, versus the
spider, the SP.
And this is, I mean, the XLP isone of those charts.
As I say this, I'm I mean, I'mnot proving it to myself, but
(01:09:07):
yeah, I'm spitting it in.
What was I saying about MartinMarietta materials?
What was I saying aboutanthenol?
What was I saying?
The definition of a wonderfulasset is you go, well, I go, I
move it from daily, I goquarterly, and I say, you know
(01:09:30):
what?
Show me everything, max it out,baby.
What have you got?
And you find that the the stockprice series goes from the
bottom left-hand side of the ofyour screen to the top right
hand side, and and XLP is one ofthem.
Um this goes back to 1999, itwas trading at call it 25.
(01:09:53):
And 25 years later, it's tradingat 75.
Being a three-bagger.
Another great one, which wentsideways for 12.
It went sideways for the bestpart of nearly 15 years.
You is as late as 2012, you werestill able to buy this thing for
(01:10:13):
like under 30 bucks, and thenyou know, ceiling becomes the
trampoline floor, and boom,you're up threefold.
Anyway, so consumer staples aretypically a rich rewarding area
if you're passively accumulatingstocks.
But when you get thesetechnology surges, the these
(01:10:39):
boring stocks get left behind.
And so it had a taught Torahtime in it, and it troffed
versus the SP in March 2000.
The the high in NASDAQ.
And and it had massiveoutperformance.
Like it went from a ratio of 0.1to a ratio of 0.25 in the course
(01:11:01):
of 10 years, and then in thecourse of the last 15 years,
it's gone from 0.25 back to 0.1.
And Mr.
Levinson was saying, I thinkhe's alluding to the notion it
double bottoms here, and it'smore evidence of a peak in US
equity prices.
Ah, I don't know.
I don't I don't think so.
(01:11:21):
I will be shading that chart anddiscussing that chart in the
Substack and the Patreon.
Again, I I I hope more of youwill join me there.
I did, didn't I?
I was meant I am meant to betalking about data and data
releases, and I did mention thisvery obtuse.
(01:11:44):
Oh my god, I was going to talkabout obtuse indicators again
and again, and I'm not going to.
Today, of course, we had the bigone was did we have ISM non-man
manufacturing?
I'm worried about hallucinationfrom the chat GPT.
I do know.
I do know we had an ADP, we hada private sector jobs report.
(01:12:07):
I know that it it beat, and Iknow we got a very robust,
better than expected, ISMservices expansion.
So I know those things are good.
I've been newly enjoying thework on Twitter.
I'm going to give him a goodshout out.
Look up Endgame Macro.
(01:12:29):
I think this kid, probably itcould be my father, I don't
know.
Could be my father, it could bemy son.
But he he is writing well, buthe was saying at the granula,
maybe that's something I'm meantto be providing.
The granular detail of theseeconomics, that's just that's
not something I do.
But the the release was ADPnon-farm employment for October,
(01:12:53):
and it printed 42,000 jobsadded.
The consensus was 32,000, so itwas a beat.
And we have to remember that inSeptember that was a negative.
That would job losses of 29,000.
But Mr.
Endgame Macro, I'm sure you'regetting a giggle for.
I hope you're you're listening.
(01:13:13):
Monsieur, well done.
But I was going through yourlittle threads, and excellent,
really, really good.
Most of the gains are comingfrom education, healthcare,
utilities, utilities created47,000.
Is that is that data centers?
I do not know.
But everything that signalshealthy, like discretionary
(01:13:37):
private sector demand,information.
I think information, well, thatwould be like data processing,
administration, down 17,000professional business services,
again, things that could beautomated with AI down 15,000.
So that's not so good.
And then he was saying, hey,look who's hiring large
companies.
They added 73,000.
(01:13:58):
So they're kind of they'rethey're oil tankers, they're
slower to turn.
And he was saying, butmedium-sized businesses that
don't have the luxury of holdingon, saying, Well, let's just
see.
Medium-sized businesses cut acombined 31,000.
And and wage growth, kind of thesame thing.
People are not really gettingpaid more.
(01:14:19):
Very small businesses betweenone less than 20 employees, two
and a half percent annual payrewards.
Yeah, well, what's he called?
Endgame mark.
What is the end game?
The end game is we look in themirror and we say, regardless of
how shitty today is, you say,you, you, my friend, I believe
(01:14:42):
in you.
SPEAKER_00 (01:14:42):
You got this.
SPEAKER_01 (01:14:45):
Where did that come from?
Oh, and I'm seeing more notesabout collateral.
Oh my god, I took lots of notes.
The uh some good chat might mayhave been from Mr.
Endgame Macro again.
But our question, are we in theare we in the early stages of a
collateral recession?
(01:15:07):
If so, then you're gonna behearing all these liquidity nut
jobs talking about theirliquidity indicator being
deteriorating.
When collateral dries up,leverage unwinds.
And it's not panic selling, it'sjust it's that kind of silent
(01:15:27):
tight.
I heard that the the amount ofcrypto that you can buy on
Argent is getting less and less.
I heard that the the the theleverage that they'll offer you
offer you if you if you cedeyour your Bitcoin to your bank.
And like if you present abillion dollars in Bitcoin,
you're like, hey, uh what willyou give me?
(01:15:49):
And like here's my equity, youknow, what kind of loan will you
give me?
It's getting less and less.
That could be a problem forstocks moving forward.
There was also a hallmark oftoday, or was it yesterday?
Or it was probably today, butcaused by yesterday's drop in in
share prices.
Was some really good articles,so um, some very compelling
(01:16:15):
arguments for why, like datacenters, dark fiber, that
there's a that it's railroadsthat we're building too much,
that the the implied profit isoverstated, that it's an arms
race between the US and theChinese, that it will require
(01:16:37):
fiscal deficits until the end ofmankind.
All I can say, and remember, Iam the idiot.
I need more water order.
All I can say to you is you willnot read.
(01:17:00):
I promise you.
You will not read the thenarrative that explains to you
why the stock in the bull marketwill end.
It will become known in theyears that follow.
(01:17:22):
It may be supposition in themonths and the years preceding
the high.
It will be dismissed or ignored.
It will even be dismissed andignored years after the peak in
equity prices.
(01:17:45):
That's all I'm saying.
Again, I'm reading you know,invoices, collateral, collateral
recession, tariffs, portactivity down ten to fifteen
percent, ten to fifteen.
I mean, it's either down ten orit's down fifteen.
These are big numbers, but Iwrote I I copied here down ten
(01:18:07):
to fifteen percent year overyear since late September.
What else have I got for you?
Oh my god, none of that.
Oh, I did have the Palantir.
Ooh, just had to go down andlook at your notes.
(01:18:27):
Yeah, market capitalizationpalantier, half a trillion
dollars.
Oh, it did make me giggle.
The French government.
I mean it gave it it gavepermission to this fashion, fast
fashion retailer, Shane Shine,S-H-E-I-N, gave it the right to
(01:18:48):
operate, to run its own bigdepartment store in Paris.
And they were just about toopen, like, ah, you can't open.
Why?
Because they discovered thatthey offer childlike sex tall
sex dolls on their third-partymarketplace.
I mean, I am not condoningchildlike sex dolls, but do we
(01:19:11):
care?
Uh, I mean, again, did I tell Idid tell you the the the Tokyo
bar that poisoned me, there'sthe strip bar, they did have
those two and they weren'tchildlike, they were very much
um very sexy, but like, youknow, over 20 years old um sex
dolls.
(01:19:31):
Um which I did I mean I Itouched the skin off.
And and the and they really didlook human.
Um apparently you can buy it.
Imagine my cleaning lady cominguh to make up the uh the uh to
make the bed and clean the floorin the master bedroom and and
being introduced to um Lucy theuh the sixth doll.
(01:19:54):
Don't think I can do that.
I found another motivationalquote of the day.
The privilege of a lifetime isto become who you truly are.
And I have to I have I'm I'mthanking you, ladies and
gentlemen, because you'relistening.
(01:20:15):
Um and I'm speaking.
I'm speaking too long.
What's the time though?
What's the time mister?
Oh my god, we're over an hour.
But you listen, I speak.
It's a great privilege.
You're allowing me to becometruly who I want to be.
Um I'm gonna leave you.
I am here, Henry.
(01:20:37):
I did forget to add the thewonderful music to Monday's
show.
Um I will add it tonight.
I'm gonna close before it's 10o'clock.
From the tropics where we haveno winter, to the normal
northern hemisphere where youwill see no light for six
(01:20:58):
months.
Take vitamin D pills.
Um, this is Hugh Henry.
This is Hugh Hendry, the assetcapitalist.
I am signing off.
Uh, until Friday, my friends, becareful.
Good night.
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