November 8, 2025 • 62 mins
Markets have a habit of choosing the path that hurts the most people, and this week they proved it. We open with a jolt: CarMax plunges 24%, the CEO is shown the door, and used‑car demand looks like a classic pull‑forward that left a hole in today’s sales. From there, we follow the thread across the macro tapestry: consumer sentiment hovering near crisis lows, layoffs announced at a pace that clashes with payroll prints, and a tech slide that turns “AI capex” from dream to doubt in a heartbeat.
I break down how cobweb dynamics and inventory timing errors ripple from toothpaste to autos, why tariffs distorted the clock on purchases, and where the data is more theatre than truth. China’s export picture adds another twist: a bilateral surplus that widens even as shipments to the US shrink, exposing the difference between volume and value in a tariff world. We dig into the money plumbing too, because it’s no longer just M2. Offshore dollar creation rides on the collateral of investment portfolios, trade invoices, rehypothecated claims that shape and form money in ways the Fed doesn’t fully map.
For investors, the practical edge is structure and levels. Options now mediate the market’s mood, turning volatility into potential income when used with care. Covered calls on quality after big drops can pay you to wait, but path risk matters. We map Meta’s gap fill and key Fibonacci retracements, and consider Oracle’s round‑trip as a reminder that narratives can outrun cash flows. The stance is clear: acknowledge the pullback, respect the signs of strain, and build selective shopping lists rather than chasing every bounce. Let the market pay you for patience, and let price confirm when the turn is real.
If this breakdown helps you navigate the noise, follow the show, share it with a friend who trades the headlines, and leave a quick review. Tell me what level you’re watching next. I’ll bring the charts.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:02):
The recording has started.
It is 9 33.
It is not Pi.
Not American Pi.
But perhaps Pi will revealitself.
Perhaps we will navigate a routethrough Pi.
What am I talking about?
(00:22):
Maybe Fibonacci.
I love Fibonacci.
We have not done enoughFibonacci.
We've done no Fibonacci.
Ladies Ladies and gentlemen.
It is I, Hugh Hendry, the AstroCapitalist, in the wonderful Zen
bars.
(00:44):
9.34 on a Friday night.
They owed me I'd be I'd be atBagatel.
I'd be drinking tequila.
But here I am.
And I'm no longer in Blanc Blue,and maybe my voice is is quiet
because I'm staying in the whatI call I'm staying in the what I
(01:08):
call the ghetto.
It's it is not the luxury of ofBlanc Blue.
I have neighbors.
Goldie, the 22-year-old blonde,beautiful Goldie, who is my
villa manager.
She's been staying here.
And when I got back, oh my god,it was it was so clean.
(01:30):
I thought I thought I was cleanliving, but clearly I'm I'm a
slob just as much as every otherguy.
Now I think I I'm I'm on thisthis new concoction called
StreamYard.
And it's got fun things that wecan do.
Well, not we, not collectively.
(01:51):
All we can do is I can talk, andmaybe if I'm very lucky, you can
listen.
But apparently I can play.
I can I can I can set us up.
Oh my god, what happened to it?
I had music, uh, it's letting medown.
Why do they do these things?
Because now it doesn't sound asif it's sound as if it's out of
(02:14):
control, damn.
But you know, I this was memeant to be.
This is what happens, never.
Uh there was this what is thatHollywood saying?
Never share a stage with dogs,pets, animals, and kids.
And then later on in the worldof finance they added, never
(02:37):
share a stage with Henry.
Let's do the introduction.
Where do you hear it?
Isn't it blessed?
Time for me to talk.
Let's start, my brothers andsisters, let's start at the very
(03:01):
beginning.
Because it's a very good placeto start.
When you read, you begin with AB C the alphabet of love.
SPEAKER_00 (03:12):
When you sing you begin with Dore Mi Do Re Mi Do
Re Me.
SPEAKER_01 (03:20):
Hmm, let's see if I can make this easier.
SPEAKER_00 (03:23):
Do a deer, a female deer, re a drop.
SPEAKER_01 (03:31):
Me! Let's make myself a long way to run.
A needle pulling thread.
La, a note to follow so tea, adrink, German bread.
SPEAKER_00 (03:46):
That will bring us back to shut up.
The sound of music.
I that came on.
I was driving a big car throughthe star via.
SPEAKER_01 (04:04):
And I've got a I mean, I'm like a carnival.
I have an external speaker thatjust boom, boom, boom,
broadcasts in the vicinity.
And it was normally it's kindarock music, but today it was
Dore Me, and I was like, I'mshading it with my brothers, my
(04:27):
brothers and sisters.
I do like this music.
You don't find it indulgent.
Um George Gammon.
George Garmin.
George Gammon and the economictheoretical theology, the
(04:51):
theologian.
Um, you know, it's odd like.
Carl Marx.
Carl Marx.
Carl Max.
I I was I'm learning new socialmedia tools.
I'm actually learning.
Oh, it stopped.
Goodbye.
(05:11):
That's the end of the show.
It was a quick one tonight.
No, there's more to go.
I've been talking for fiveminutes.
I can't.
I like so George was telling mehow I should really be talking
to girls.
I'm getting it all wrong.
Unlucky in love.
That's not true.
But he's also teaching me howyou communicate, like social
(05:33):
media is really like talking topretty girls.
I'm finding that fascinating.
Anyway, so I was setting up thispiece.
You know, he's got lots offollowers, him and Brent
Johnson.
Not like little old me.
And I'm like, hey, and and youknow, last weekend he was here.
(05:54):
And actually it reminds me of astory of my my one of my kids
had to do an essay.
A legal essay.
Can't quite remember thecontext.
And my ex-wife, an advocate, anadvocate, a lawyer, assisted and
kind of partly wrote the essay.
(06:15):
And the kid's score was uh-uh.
Actually, I've got more.
How do you read it?
Uh-uh.
I don't know.
You know, the kid's essay.
unknown (06:32):
What?
SPEAKER_01 (06:39):
I got a very forgive me, this is gonna be even more
annoying than usual.
I have to entertain myself.
Yeah, it got it got really poormarks.
Actually, it wasn't one of thekids, it was her sister who was
doing an MBA and had to write aLego essay.
Why?
(06:59):
What was I talking about thattook me into that?
Yes, George Gowan.
And and so um, I'm like, hey,what apparently I was like a
hedge fund guru.
Still, maybe it can be sometimesI can say intelligent things.
And he was telling me about hisCarmax and he was doing a Paris
(07:21):
trade, and we discussed this.
And I spent the weekend saying,George, oh my god, you're such
an amateur, you're the king ofsocial media, but that no one
does pairs trading because youknow, risk reduction, and
therefore, if we ever get kindof two or three Z-score type
days where the SP might mightfall 10%, you probably find that
(07:47):
your karma, you well, your longsomething is down 10%, not good,
and your short something whichwill probably rally, really not
good.
So I was beseeching him to tocover.
And uh and then I decided to puta little kind of thread out
there on on Twitter, likesaying, Oh, George, you know,
(08:10):
you're an amateur, I'm anexpert.
And and George is on WhatsAppand he's he's laughing his head
off.
He's like, oog, oog, huh, huh,huh, huh?
Check the monitor, check themonitor.
I'm like, what monitor?
My heart monitor?
Hold on a second.
Heart heart monitor?
I was like, I was thinking.
(08:33):
I'm loving this, hold on asecond.
I was like, George, what he'slike, yeah, no, no.
That is the sound of a DeathStar.
Carl Car Max was joining KarlMax Marx in the cemetery.
Oh my god, pull it together.
Stop having fun.
(08:55):
Car CarMax, the the UnitedStates, the largest retailer of
secondhand automobiles.
It tumbled.
Tumbled?
I don't think tumbled is theright adjective.
It collapsed 24% on Thursday.
Closing around about$30.
(09:15):
The shares are now down to theirlowest level in 15 years.
And no mercy, no mercy was shownto the the long-standing chief
executive.
None.
Bill Bill Nash Nash got slashed.
Been with the company for 30years, departure immediate.
(09:38):
They're like, slinger hook andget out of here.
Also, they they kicked him offthe board.
They're mighty beeved.
Company, it was it's it's nowcut its earnings per share, who
cares, to somewhere between 18and 36 cents, which means like
we don't know.
(09:59):
And the Wall Street consensushad been for 69, 69, no more.
What's going on?
The same store sales.
Now expected to decline, let'scall it 10%.
Where analysts have been like,yeah, they've been kind of
(10:20):
bearish, they've been lookingfor like a two and a half, three
percent decline.
Nope, 10, maybe 12.
What's going on?
And this can get that there isrelevance in this.
A pull forward, a poo.
We borrowed, we put our we wereached out and we pulled the
(10:40):
future into today overconsumption.
I mean, we're doing that withdebt.
We're pooling the debt capacityof the American economy over
decades, and we're pooling itvery selfishly, and we're
consuming that debt on lots ofcrazy shit.
(11:05):
Pooling from the future.
And what was happening wastariffs, tariffs, price.
I mean cars I am amazed.
Cars are really I have no ideaabout real life.
Cars are really, reallyexpensive.
(11:26):
And if you can hear a guggle,I'm I'm not gargling, but I'm
drinking I'm drinking water outof a glass glass bottle.
Yeah, like a shitty car, co ashitty brand new car cost you
like what, 20, 25,000?
(11:47):
A kind of run-of-the-mill familycar, 40,000?
And they all look the same.
But put a tariff on top of that,and that's a big deal.
So people were buying cars andbuying secondhand cars ahead of
the tariffs.
And so that confused things.
(12:09):
And actually, so uh this is thisis something which is
spontaneous.
Uh the cobweb theater uh runninga business is kind of
complicated.
Even the guys who manufacturetoothpaste, toothpaste, I'm
brush, I'm pretending to brushmy teeth to camera toothpaste.
(12:32):
I mean, you don't there are novariable lags or booms and busts
in toothpaste.
And yet, they tell me themanufacturing, the ordering and
the inventory, it's a complextask.
Back in the day when I worked inEdinburgh, of course, we had an
(12:53):
investment in at the time youcould invest directly in
independent whiskey companies.
And you were essentially, theywere wonderful, but they were
time capsules, you know, whiskeyheritage, and it's 10 years old.
But think of the complexity andthe demand curve, not the curve,
(13:14):
but the the theory there is thecobweb or the hog cycle, that
you're having to make decisionsin the here and now for a
product that you're going tosell in 10 years' time.
And I'm saying to you that theguy who sells toothpaste, I
mean, he's he's not struggling,but it's still a science to know
(13:37):
how much to produce the weekbefore, the month before.
Never mind 10 years before.
And and of course, they'reyou're constantly getting it
wrong, but with these huge timelags, which then create huge
price effects.
(13:58):
And so we saw a lot of that inCarmax, and it's very much at
the root of the debate on the USeconomy.
This is a macro show.
We are supposed, we, the royal,we, me, you, no, me, I'm
supposed to tell you about uhthe day's economic data.
What did we get?
(14:18):
We got the Michigan, theconsumer sentiment index, and
and actually is for November.
Remember, remember the 7th ofNovember or the 8th by the time
you hear this, Michigan consumerwas down at 50.
There's a decimal point inthere, but you would round it to
50.
And that was down from again,we're gonna round the decimal
(14:42):
point up a little bit.
So to fifth, it was 54 inOctober.
So 54 to 50.
Consensus had been 53.
Now, to make this more realisticto those of you listening in
your earbuds, the long-termaverage of the index is around
85.
(15:02):
And it hit, I mean, is thistrue?
So it hit a record low of 50 inJune 22 amid fears of the
pandemic inflation.
So it's pretty much on consumersentiment, it is on crisis
(15:22):
levels.
I am looking at the Universityof Michigan consumer sentiment,
and I am looking at it from youknow me, I like long, look
looking at lot as much data aspossible.
And it it was 50 back in 1980recession.
Very high interest rates, 16%interest rates.
(15:44):
Oh, sentiment would stink.
The highest reading ever was inthe yeah, in the year leading up
to uh the the tech bubble, uh,the end of the century, 1990,
party, like it's 1999.
It's as high as it's been, andit got to 110.
(16:06):
Interesting, the comparisonstoday.
You know, you can't read aninvestment report on tech
without the comparison of AI anddata centers to global crossing
and dark fiber, the exuberanceof the stock market.
Well, the exuberance of thestock market was being
(16:29):
disseminated and passed throughto consumer sentiment.
You know, the consumer is 70% ofthe economy.
So you had a double positivewhammy.
Stocks were up, the economy wasup, people felt good.
What you can categorically saytoday is I mean, my god, stocks
(16:50):
had been on it, stocks have beeneverywhere, but they've been
mostly up, but they did fall.
I mean, Nasdaq at one point thisyear was down 20% on the year,
the SP was down about over 10%on the year, and then the SP was
up 15%, and the Nasdaq was up20%, so we've had huge
(17:11):
movements, but the consumersentiment is on his ass.
It's a really, reallyinteresting, remarkable uh
chart.
I mean, it's not a remarkablechart, but it I didn't know
that.
I did not know that.
We are the levels of consumersentiment that we saw during the
(17:33):
exceptional period of the COVID.
In fact, we're below thoselevels.
I mean, you could argue we justkept going.
Like COVID wasn't good forsentiment.
The government spending or thethe inflation that it generated
wasn't good for sentiment.
(17:53):
And we're at levels that youassociate with 2008-2009.
We're at levels you associate infact we're lower than than the
savings and loan crisis in 1990.
And we're even lower when thanwhen the Fed was at 16% interest
rates in 1980.
(18:15):
So that's quite a that'sactually that I think that calls
for an intervention.
Heartbeat of I know what you'resaying, I become James James
Kramer and Jimmy Kramer, but youknow, but consumer sentiment.
I mean, I'm like I'm sorry.
(18:41):
Do you know that expression,Nick La Police?
Again, we're we're jumping off.
Do you know the biggest rapband, fantastic rap rap band, in
France?
I do not, do not, do not saythat's an oxymoron, because
there's some amazing uh Frenchrap.
(19:01):
But the biggest band, like goingback the last 30 years, is NTM.
And NTM is an acronym only inFrance.
Do you know what NTM stands for?
The French people are like,yeah.
Would you like to know?
You're like, no, okay, I'm gonnatell you.
And again, hold on a second.
SPEAKER_00 (19:27):
It means Nik Nick Niktapolit.
What Nik?
Oh Nik Tamer.
SPEAKER_01 (19:36):
Nique Tamer and Nik means fuck.
So it's fuck your mother is thename.
You can't make this shit up, isthe name of the biggest rap band
in France.
And actually it's quite a jovialterm.
Like, if you if something, if helike rather than go high five to
(19:58):
your friend, you go hey NiqueTamer.
I use it all the time, NickTamer, motherfucker.
Nick Tamer, how did we get ohyeah, we were talking about
consumer sentiment.
Oh, and uh La Haine, my kidCameron, he has La Haine.
He's a tattoo there.
Brilliant, amazing, amazingmovie that they created the star
(20:22):
of Vincent Cassell.
And they have a lot of like theyhave a lot of in the the suburbs
and you know those riots andpitchback and the cops and the
you know the youth, the youth oftoday.
Is there tequila in my water?
(20:42):
When I was younger, um look itup, the musical youth, the youth
of today, the oh, and they hadthis great song called Pass the
Duchy on the Left Hand Side.
And there was this program.
I mean, there are about I thinkI think 40% of the podcast is
called up by the citizens ofLondon.
(21:03):
So you'll know what I'm talkingabout.
There was a kid's show calledBlue Peter, very, very
respectable.
And they kind of they taught youorigami and it was boring as
hell, but they had the thelittle black London kids come on
and go, pass the duty on theleft hand side.
And and it was the Caribbeantradition where you've got to
pass the pass the joint to yourneighbor on the left hand side
(21:29):
and the blue peter.
The white folk were not aware ofit.
If they were aware of it.
Stop it, stop it, stop it, stopit.
Right.
What was I talking about?
Oh my god.
So consumer sentiment.
Uh notes.
I do have notes.
Come on, notes.
Note to self stop being afriggin' idiot.
(21:51):
But yeah, Michigan consumersentiment.
SPEAKER_00 (21:54):
Mmm.
Mmm.
Mmm.
SPEAKER_01 (21:57):
Then I think this shows why my what is my
recurring message?
Don't press your nose too closeto the window to look at the
economic data.
Take your time, ignore a lot ofit.
Just keep your eye on trend andprice.
(22:21):
Yesterday, all my troubles seemso far away.
Because we had the ADP privateuh sector report.
I now have neighbors and they'retalking.
I hope it's not messing with thesoundtrack.
I'll have to call the cops.
(22:41):
ADP was celebrated.
Today we got the Fletcher Grayreport.
Challenger, Fletcher, I don'tknow.
It's all grey.
And it reported 153,000announced job cuts.
ADP, on the other hand, we s wascelebrated.
(23:08):
And it was demonstrating 42,000new private sector jobs.
I'm hesitating.
If you could see me.
If you could see me, you wouldyou would sp out I'm like, this
is crazy.
So what's going on?
(23:29):
And which should we trust?
I don't trust any of them, butif I was to say something close
to being sensible, theChallenger report is kind of
more indicative of where we'regoing because it's announced
cuts, it's gross ADP's net.
So Challenger is going throughall public announcements from
(23:52):
companies, and actuallyChallenger is also picking up
public sector uh data.
And so some of these announcedlayoffs might not happen.
But right now, on the basis ofuh discourse from companies, the
intention is to lose 153,000.
(24:14):
Now again, statistics, damndamn, damn.
Statistics.
So and this title is calledChallenger, Grey and Christmas.
Challenger, Grey and Christmas?
Why'd you put Christmas inthere?
I know.
Those job cuts were 183% greaterthan the month before.
(24:39):
Or September.
Is this for November or October?
I think it may be October.
Now here's the bit.
It was the the worst.
Let me get this right.
It was October.
And it was the worst in terms ofbiggest job cut announcement for
(25:00):
the month of October in theChallenger Grey and Christmas
series since October 2003.
But here's how they mess withstatistics.
The headline.
(25:28):
Job layoffs start to two decadehigh.
It's not true.
Pants on fire.
I mean, I did say to you theother day that job cuts look as
if they're running at just undera million job cuts.
And that's up like I want to say50% from the year before.
(25:48):
But you've got to go back to2023, not 2003.
2023 no 2020, that impact yearof the pandemic.
And there it was over 2 million.
You see statistics.
I read something.
Does this happen to you?
(26:09):
Sometimes I st I stumble intowhat do they call it?
I'm now um I'm moving my screen.
Yeah.
Actually, not notifications, yougo to home and there are two
choices, for you or following.
And sometimes I it defaults foryou.
(26:32):
No, for you is crazy universe.
Lots of really, really fuckingcrazy things come up on that, on
that teleprompter.
Following, I've had a chance tokind of like even it out.
There was actually about asix-month period where I didn't
really I didn't know what hadhappened, and I was stuck on for
(26:53):
you, and I was just gettingcrazy, crazy batshit.
Alex Carp type stuff.
But anyway, so I was on thisdefault, and this thing came up
about I think it was rosemary,you know, the the herb, the
herb.
I really like rosemary on a on apotato.
I like it in a bush.
(27:13):
Rosemary is one of my favoritebushes.
Why am I laughing when I saybush?
Black forest gâteau.
Sorry where that came from.
Oh yeah, a rosemary.
And it was saying, wow, the thescience has discovered that the
(27:36):
this the odor of rosemary it itsets off something biologically
in in the blood, which you knowwhen we're getting older, like
we are not getting we're we'renot as good at like Pac-Man and
eating up the sentient.
Sentient means the dead cellsand they hang around better and
stuff like that.
It was like rosemary would wouldhelp as you begin you'd be
(28:01):
getting good cleansing,especially for the brain.
It's gonna keep you smarter.
And they had a a study whichrevealed that students who were
sniffing the rosemary wereoutperforming on memory tasks.
I thought, and it was like, hey,maybe you should you should have
you have a stick.
(28:22):
I mean, you should have a stickof rosemary with you all the
time, why not?
I mean, I mean I you can I Ithink I'm gonna do that.
Maybe in the next show I'll havea stick of rosemary.
Still coughing.
Now I've got dogs.
Hold on, hang on.
Hold on.
Can you I if you can hear thesound of dogs, then you
(28:44):
understand that we need I don'tknow if you're hearing that, but
I have shot the dogs.
Anyway, so I put into the thethinking, the pro aspect, the
pro part of Chat GPT, and it'slike, uh, is this real?
(29:08):
I don't know.
And you know, so it cannotcalculate compound annual growth
rates, but it's like this is acrock of shit.
First of all, the sample size ofthe study is 144 like elementary
school kids, and you're tryingto like extrapolate to the 8
(29:28):
billion people in the world.
I mean, 144 people! Like, whydon't you try 100,000 people?
And and then this is so I gotinto this code de sac because of
the media's use of thechallenger data, which was
statistically the worst or thelargest amount of layoffs since
(29:52):
2003.
But the headline was the worstlayoffs in 20 years.
No.
And they did the same trick.
here and I think they do this.
I'm pretty sure this is atechnique, social media
technique, when you've got somestupid you know, like chocolate
makes you I mean you know I wasgonna say makes you uh it's
(30:14):
healthy.
I mean I I do buy into that darkchocolate.
Uh but even then I've I'vestopped eating old chocolate.
But yeah the the technique forgetting attention is you put out
an announcement and you make afactual error which then gets
(30:34):
copied by someone else and andgets tweeted or whatever gets
disseminated.
And so the error becomes thefocal point.
And that's what happened here.
It was saying there was a thestudy revealed a 71 71%
improvement in memory butactually what had happened was
the report when it was sent outthe first newspaper to report on
(30:57):
it said the report was a 7.1%7.1 but it was reported by the
first newspaper there was a typoand I bet you they were paid for
the typo supposition by me evilsupposition you you kinda
underhand and you give thenewspaper a potovan is the
(31:21):
French say a bribe and they theytake 7.1 and they make a mistake
and it becomes 71 and then noone corrects it.
Just shocking what happensanyway we are I'm now into 30
(31:42):
minutes.
This has to be done in an hourso I didn't think I was going to
be singing to you tonight we'vedone consumer sentiment we've
done jobs oh yes the the exportsChina's exports in October
(32:09):
China's export figures theydisappointed tariffs again they
would they this time last yearthey were they were exceeding
expectations and now they'redisappointed and it shouldn't be
a very great surprise but youknow markets need drama and the
practitioners in the economicsfield are useless.
(32:32):
October Chinese exportscontracted they fell 1.1% year
over year the expectation wasmodest growth is the expectation
modest growth why was it modestgrowth and then the other
challenge and I can't get to thebottom of this so they
contracted 1.1% is that volumeor is that volume time times
(32:55):
price?
I think you know it's volume solike is it the nominal value or
is it the the number of units?
I think it's the nominal value.
And when you consider thetariffs ranging from 25 to 140%
on Chinese products direct tothe US economy since the what's
it called Independence Day orwhatever April 5th that's a big
(33:24):
deal because it should be up ifthe volume was the same and you
were paying like a tariff of 25%it should be up a lot but
instead it's actually down one1% if anyone's got the answer to
that let me know I cannot Ithink I'm right there but I'm I
cannot say hand on heartabsolutely exports I wrote the
(33:53):
uh the Chinese export figuresthat was globally and they were
the weakest in eight months andI believe I think it was exports
to the US actually sh shrank forthe first time in about 18
months was that U I'm a bitconfused what I'm saying there
(34:19):
but I did read somewhere I wroteI I I I don't like I like
writing little cryptic things.
But I did write Chinese exportsshrank for the first time in
about 18 months exports to theUS they did plunge 25% year over
year.
Again if that's volume timesprice that's a huge decline.
(34:43):
But here's a twist so again didyou read this this is this is
breaking news there was abreaking news asset where is it
drum roll applause heartbeatmore sounds breaking news I'm
sure I saw breaking newsbreaking news I can't see
breaking news but I do see nobreaking news don't see it what
(35:07):
would break news sound likedon't know this breaking news
yeah so I was saying to you thatChinese exports to the US down a
(35:34):
lot down a lot my friends down25% year over year.
But the American Chinese orChina's trade balance with the
US obviously it's the tradesurplus exports decline 25% the
(35:55):
trade surplus goes up goes up isthat I mean it doesn't go up a
lot like the Chinese are likeyou want to fuck with us we're
gonna fuck with you so they cutback on soya beans and the like
I mean they're tough cookiesanyway so that's data.
(36:22):
I think we can do this in inunder an hour pretty sure we can
that's 40 minutes stocks arefalling tech's falling what's
the front page of the of thecommie pink financial times tech
stocks suffer worse week sinceApril after 800 billion I mean
I'm surprised they didn't sayafter a trillion dollar AI
(36:46):
sell-off and again I think I wassuggesting to you that the
pernicious pernicious perniciousnature of stocks stocks are mean
(37:08):
stocks are mean the systems meanstocks will travel in the
direction what do people say ofleast resistance?
No stocks will go in thedirection which causes the
greatest consternation amongstthe most which is to say stocks
(37:33):
will go to the point whichpisses off the most number of
market participants.
That's where they go time andtime again they go there and
they go how are you feeling wediscussed that the other day I
was likening the pool theperiodic pullback in stock
prices pulling back meanreverting and stocks rise the
(37:55):
but it's a mean reversion meanreverting upward price series
but they revert and the reverseis very emotional and it
converts faith into denial andthis show is all about trying to
help you with that tough journeyand I would it was just the
(38:23):
other day Wednesday and I wassaying to you S B was down 10%
going into April on the year.
And then it was up betweensomewhere between 10 and 15% so
kind of 25% off the lows NASDAQhad a 40% reversal to the upside
and we were the it and it pulledthe one year which is the
(38:47):
tortoise the slow movingcreature was kind of up 12 13
1415 depending on the index andof course the spot price which
is the hair which runs very fastwas was up here and so the real
danger of a 20% 25% pullbackwe're seeing that now did I one
(39:09):
of the charts I saw was OracleOracle has round tripped it got
that great was it AI AI was itchat GPT that signed them that
deal and I'm I was watching theall in YouTube podcast show and
and they had that I don't knowwhat was it called Brad Setzer
(39:33):
the one who wrote the openletter to Meta saying hey you
know you want to get better youwant to you want to like
actually run the companyseriously and and he he he
picked he managed to capture agreat buying opportunity and and
he he got the mind of Zuckerbergor he got lucky same thing in
(39:56):
this business.
But I'd missed that he he'd beenon a on a show during the week
with Sam Altman I have said I doknow there's something about Sam
I don't like there's somethingabout the night about that man.
And anyway the investor who'sactually has a big lump of stock
(40:18):
in ChatGPT and and would ideallylike to own more of it he asked
a very relevant question likeSam can you just explain to the
wider world how a business withactual revenue of$13 billion is
signing deals for capitalexpenditure of$1.5 trillion
(40:40):
dollars.
That's one and a half millionmillions when the revenue is
$13,000 million.
1.5 million millions is thecapex they're signing and and
Altman was just nasty nasty andand and people are smart on Wall
(41:04):
Street and they're like why ishe nasty?
Why is he prickly what is what'swhat's in his head he's having a
bad he's having a bad day I'vegot to tell you I was having a
really bad day a really reallybad day I I'm telling you I I I
left I moved house last nightand I have a I have three
(41:30):
cleaning ladies from Colombiaand they do not speak English or
French just Spanish and and theyare devoid of intelligence.
Now it's not their role to beintelligent but when I say
devoid I mean we're talkingabout almost zero intelligence
(41:51):
so I go home now one of mypassions now if you're listening
to this you won't get this butone of my passions is my glasses
I I have about 12 pairs ofglasses sunglasses must be about
$15 to$20,000 worth of glassesand they were all out of their
(42:15):
cases at Blanc Bleu.
But you would surmise that theladies in packing my luggage
would have put the glasses inthe case in a bag and everything
would be fine and dandy they didnot they took all of my glasses
and they put it in a bag andthat bag got lost.
(42:37):
So I spent most of last nightand most of today thinking that
my like my my identity me whatit is with the glasses is I look
like my mother I have mymother's eyes being very honest
with you and my my mother diedjust under two years ago but she
(43:00):
I wish it was a blessing becauseshe's had dementia and so you
see that the awful awful awfuldecline she used to wear glasses
but then she didn't wear glassesand I would see those eyes those
dead eyes and I could see me andanyway my I don't know I'd been
wearing glasses well before shegot dementia so I was not a
(43:25):
happy chappie and I was heavensI mean they're getting fired
don't tell but they are gettingfired and and you know I was
talking about the blonde thegoldy the 22 year old turns out
she had them they were in thefridge anyway I got my glasses
(43:45):
back so that was a bad day.
What was Sam's bad day we don'tknow but that didn't help with
the sentiment in technologysocks and again Oracle
interesting chart trader Mike Imet with him in Eder Rock he
(44:06):
sent me a message gorgeous girlthe waitress what's her name I
was like oh my dear he's likeshe's asking after you where are
you I'll be there I'm coming I'mcoming and you know oh my god I
was talking she is so beautifuland she was like well and she
(44:27):
wasn't happy with me so I was inanother bar writing notes for
these shows the select barselect and this dream girl came
up and said she was veryfamiliar with talking away and I
had no idea who she was becauseshe was like wearing a bikini
(44:48):
whatever and um and um so one ofthe problems is I know she knows
me and I know that I know herand I want to kind of you know
ask her on a date for a coffeeor whatever but she knows that I
know her and so I should know ifshe has a boyfriend.
It's complicated you see this iswhy I need George Gammon the Car
Max short seller extraordinaireanyway I was talking with Mike
(45:13):
Trader Mike and Friday is whenhe's everything's expiring like
stocks crash people panic Mikerents the chaos with covered
calls and so I mean he's got oneposition riot and it's a special
(45:34):
set so he he just knows it sowell so this is not a great
great great company but he he'sa kind of a horse whisperer he's
the algo whisperer he knowswhere in the in the range the
algos push the price higher andlower and he just he writes he
(45:55):
writes his calls on on on theappropriate points in that cycle
and it's it's got very credibleactive investors who are pushing
to change it from the Bitcoinminer to data center.
(46:18):
But that'll take a while and soBitcoin data centers we are
talking about a humongous amountof volatility which is to say
the options because volatilityis the principal component of
options the what what is thatextrinsic extrinsic the you know
(46:40):
when it's so volatile that theso it's not whether the options
in the money at the money out ofthe money is like between now
and that period the end theexpiration period if it's very
volatile then the uncertainty isso great.
So if I am an options writer Iprotect myself by making it very
(47:02):
very expensive to cover beingrisky and volatile.
Now remember Mike's selling thevery very expensive he's selling
the options and so it's thebeginning of his week if you
will today and he has amassed anenormous position once more.
(47:24):
I mean so he he he had been hehe he breathes he inhales he
exhales the acid breath wehaven't done that will save you
from the the shipping news butthe natural evolution of markets
(47:47):
when markets are when markets orsome of his stocks have become
excruciatingly weak then beingexcruciatingly weak so they've
fallen a lot then he is morewilling to to underwrite the
downside risk the more they'vefallen the more he's like yeah
(48:07):
okay I'll come in here I don't Iwas thinking about Solano Solano
being down about 40% and he'slike no okay and and and salt
the two times leverage so beingdown the best part of 80 and
he's like okay I mean if itfalls another 20 that's like 90%
and I'll I'll buy it anyway soI'll take that risk.
(48:31):
Anyway with riot Bitcoin minerinto data centers etter is part
of this if nothing happens andit goes sideways or it goes up
he's gonna make five and a halfpercent income in a week I wish
(48:54):
I'd done this earlier I'm gonnawrite it in what if I if I ask
it then it'll bust my recordingbut what is I don't know why I
am asking okay I'm gonna ask yousee who get get the number
faster and I bet your numberwill be better than mine my chat
GPT number but what is five anda half per percent per week and
(49:21):
you annualized return okay boomboom boom boom boom actually
let's let's make some noise whathave you got that is one
thousand five hundred and thirtysix percent maybe maybe that's
(49:43):
an hallucination but five and ahalf percent weekly if you can
compound it five and a halfpercent weekly your annual
return is going to be enormous Ican see why Kramer got tedious
and very annoying with thesethings so so five and a half
(50:05):
percent a week is a hell of alot but Mike's like I'm not I'm
not sure he he's he iscontemplative and ro and and
reflecting on where does themarket go from here like
everyone else so there's aninteresting is there at any
(50:27):
point there but these marketsseem different these markets
have changed these markets haveevolved these markets are
frankly much better um we'vealways had if you will automatic
(50:52):
stabilizers greed and fearNasdaq went from being down 20%
to up 20% on the year a 40% movein April five months and people
start getting fearful anenlightening position and
arguably sell would get sellerand prices reverse NASDAQ being
(51:17):
down 20% people get greedy theriot the the special sit that
Mike's playing the 5.5% is likeI'm kind of getting greedy so
what I want to say is it's notjust price declines it's not
just like the price earningsratio gets gets lower the
dividend yield gets higher theuh the valuation becomes a
(51:40):
compelling talking piece it isactually that with the
preponderance of of tradingthat's being conducted through
options there are some amazingopportun potential opportunities
lucrative opportunities thatemerge when prices fall a lot in
(52:03):
very volatile areas but here'swhere it is hard so the oracles
of in the substack I'm gonnaI'll do the essay of this and
push up the charts and Oraclelooks intriguing but remember
one of the caveats of Mike'sgreat strategy is he will buy
(52:27):
outstanding world classcompanies so that there's a
caveat there are not many ofthem and Oracle is arguably one
I have no argument with that butthen he goes on to say that a
fallen 60% and Oracle certainlyhas and it's just reversed some
of the blow of craziness fromthat last deal.
(52:53):
So he's not coming in to do thatdeal we were discussing doing
that with Bitcoin maybe you knowand he was going to tell me he
didn't come back to me I wouldsuspect you're probably looking
at three percent by doingcovered calls and I would say
(53:15):
three percent so let's put haveyou have you got the answer yet?
What is three percent per weekannualized return put that in I
think we've got to do the wegotta do the drum again three
(53:38):
hundred and thirty six percentsounds about right but how much
of being able to get about threepercent per week how much maybe
that protects you if Bitcoingoes from it was actually up
today from 102 what if it goesdown to 80 are you a buyer at 80
(53:59):
or are you going to be a buyerat 60?
You see that's these are the thedeliberations and they are
interesting deliberations I wantto wrap in the next uh five
minutes if I don't rap I amgoing to be screaming at myself
okay the didn't we talk aboutfractals?
(54:24):
Yeah so one of the other ones ismeta looking at my notes meta
meta meta meta meta so meta thisyear following in the footsteps
(54:46):
of Nasdaq being a principalcomponent of the movement in
Nasdaq went from 480 in April upto 800 I mean wow like that's
what over a trillion dollars ofmarket valuation expansion and
(55:08):
today it's 600 because the kidis just pumping he's like he
he's he's got it he's got thehe's got the the fever and his
capex is enormous and there's alot of kind of funky off balance
(55:28):
sheet opaque financing specialpurpose vehicles things that
bring back fears of otherperiods of excess and so it's
been dumped and 600 so when youhave so I want you to think of
(55:50):
meta being climbing climbing aspiral staircase to heaven and
sometimes the ascent to heavenyou come across obstacles and
(56:12):
you have to take a few stepsback can you can you hear me
because I'm back I'm okay I'mback to the computer.
You have to take a few of thosesteps back before you start
climbing the rotating rotunda toheaven Fibonacci retracement
lines are those steps back andthey're a fascination they're
(56:38):
kind of groovy it's nature andit's crowd psychology is it pop
culture or pop pop goes theweasel but those steps they're
(56:59):
particular levels fractals andthese fractals work so you can
put these charts in thesepatterns doesn't matter if it's
yearly monthly tick data hourlydata you'll get these patterns
and is it a placebo but tradersare drawn to that and they will
have trading orders congregatingaround these levels.
(57:23):
So 61.2 is one of the the bigFibonacci and that's where Meta
is trading having come down from800 to 600 another fun thing is
what I keep saying mind the gapMeta had a gap.
Meta there was a newsannouncement and it was so damn
(57:46):
exciting that the first stopprint the day after was actually
higher than the day before thatyou didn't have continuous price
that there was this interruptionand so if it closed at 520 the
day before the first print was525 as a gap gaps get filled
(58:10):
especially if I buy them aboveand there was a gap a gap in May
and the gap you don't need me totell you the gap it got filled
where was the gap so I'm justlook I'm looking at it now me
(58:32):
yeah the gap was around about550 or so so you're up at you're
at 800 some crazy supposed arebuying it at 800 they're buying
above the gap you're like comeon not gonna go back all the way
down there they did anyway Ishould have said so I'm
(58:58):
conscious we're we're on the twominutes to the hour mark R Max
consumer sentiment Chineseexports tariffs human trader
(59:19):
behavior we know there's goingto be a price hike as the tariff
we ordered before and we poo webring demand forward and we're
now in a period of deficit we'vecan the economy is weaker
(59:40):
because of that action and takeone step back further the last
three years Steve Merrin and theargument of we we we had we've
had a change in politicalideology very steep like a
handbrake turn and oneadministration in America was
saying hey come in get over thewall Oh, become a Democrat, vote
(01:00:01):
for us.
And unprecedented numbers camein and came in rapidly.
And they were buying used cars.
And then another administrationsaid, get out of here.
And these people I'mexaggerating, but they fled.
They left everything behind.
They left their apartments,their cars, their used cars.
(01:00:26):
And at the same time, I wassaying to you, this stock market
is different.
Everything evolves, it getsbetter.
The options and then the notionyou get drawdowns, but suddenly
the temptation, the greedtemptation, this is the point.
Mike is an amazing investor.
(01:00:46):
And he's getting greedy.
But he's just a little bit wearyabout where we are.
Why is he waiting?
He's waiting because of these ofthe evolution of innovation in
finance.
And we discussed this then.
Money.
Inflation is a monetaryphenomenon.
(01:01:09):
But but what is money?
And the Fed thinks it's M zeroand M2.
It thinks it's bank reserves,reserves captured within the
jurisdiction of the UnitedStates economy.
And as Michigan, as as theidiot, my my very I have all of
my listeners are very smart,very clever, very endearing,
(01:01:30):
very acid.
But as he was pointing out,evolution in in money, why would
you create dollars within thejurisdiction of the US and being
and being under thejurisprudence of the Federal
Reserve when you can do itoffshore, free of sanction, you
(01:01:52):
can leverage it as much as youwish.
It's unregulated.
It's very, very profitable.
And we're creating more dollarsthat way.
And it's dependent on so it'snot on bank reserves, but it's
on collateral.
We talked about how stockportfolios can be collateral.
You can pledge your portfolioand you'll be given credit.
(01:02:16):
It might be 50 eggs of what youpledged.
It might be five.
And then we were discussing anew fondness for using invoices
and trade invoices.
And we we've seen a lot oftrade.
(01:02:38):
This generation is defined bytrade, the immense emergent
trade of China with the rest ofthe world.
It's huge export trade with theUnited States.
And it's like, well, hold on asecond, let's facturize the
(01:03:00):
invoices between the US importerand the Chinese exporter, or
vice versa.
That's collateral.
And we'll create more moneyagain.
Trader Mike's thinking, and he'sseeing the signs.
UBS are closing not one fund,they're closing two funds.
BlackRock are closing a creditfund.
(01:03:22):
Regional banks are always kindof on the cusp of being needy.
Because who would be a regionalbank when I can be an
international money center bankand I can be printing dollars
offshore?
Why would I be in Cincinnati?
And they're kind of picking upstrain.
(01:03:44):
And then there's all sorts ofacronyms coming out of the
Federal Reserve and they'replumbing, and they're indicating
strain.
My instinct is I think where weare is a pullback.
I and I can't see things rushinghigher immediately.
(01:04:08):
And I certainly would be lookingfor buying opportunities, but
probably probably not rushing.
And I'm listening to Trader Mikefor the the smart ones which
give me protection.
That's where we are.
And I wanted to close.
(01:04:30):
I must play more music.
Hold on a second.
Um let's let me oh yeah.
I know what I can do.
I think it's time.
I am gonna leave you, ladies andgentlemen.
You'll be listening to this theweekend of the 8th and the 9th
of November.
And I truly, from the bottom ofmy heart, I hope you have one of
(01:04:52):
the best weekends ever.
I have clients staying in myhouse, and a couple are being
married tomorrow.
May it rain today.
May it not rain on their parade,may it not rain on you.
May your heart be full of joyfulsunshine.
And and and please allow me theindulgence of what is called the
(01:05:19):
green sunny soft.
Let me talk over it.
Um we sp I spoke to you aboutfeminine.
I spoke to you about thatspiraling staircase to heaven
and the retracements, the stepsbackwards.
I'm talking about pie.
(01:05:46):
We're talking about somethingvery dear to me.
The infinite flirt withmathematics.
Three spot one four one fivenine.
Do you know what?
I've been thinking, but I wantto get another two.
I'm gonna get three spot onefour one five nine.
(01:06:08):
Maybe I'm gonna get it one morefour.
Tell me what I should get.
Like maybe I should get it.
Well should get it.
Three split it between the arms.
Maybe I'll put it down my arm.
These digits, my fingers, I willdigits of high tumbling into
(01:06:32):
eternity.
No pattern, no mercy.
The ratio is the ratio of acircle, circumference to its
diameter, circumference roundand remote, and the diameter is
the fastest as the crow fliesfrom one end to the other.
(01:06:53):
I this mathematical flirtation,the symbol the symbol of
everything humans can measure,but yet we never fully grasp.
Geometry waves probabilityheels.
The fingerprint of rotation, thefingerprint of rhythm itself,
(01:07:16):
eyes in the orbit of planets,the ripple of ponds, the bell
curve, the scores of clouds.
It's a whisper from the geometryof the universe, and it reminds
me at least that perfection.
Oh my god, perfection isendless.
(01:07:40):
And us we only ever trace itsshadow.
Good night to you all.
This is Hugh Hendry.
I am the acid capitalist, and Iam gonna have an amazing
weekend.
The recording has started.
It is 9 33.
It is not Pi.
Not American Pi.
But perhaps Pi will revealitself.
Perhaps we will navigate a routethrough Pi.
What am I talking about?
(00:22):
Maybe Fibonacci.
I love Fibonacci.
We have not done enoughFibonacci.
We've done no Fibonacci.
Ladies Ladies and gentlemen.
It is I, Hugh Hendry, the AstroCapitalist, in the wonderful Zen
bars.
(00:44):
9.34 on a Friday night.
They owed me I'd be I'd be atBagatel.
I'd be drinking tequila.
But here I am.
And I'm no longer in Blanc Blue,and maybe my voice is is quiet
because I'm staying in the whatI call I'm staying in the what I
(01:08):
call the ghetto.
It's it is not the luxury of ofBlanc Blue.
I have neighbors.
Goldie, the 22-year-old blonde,beautiful Goldie, who is my
villa manager.
She's been staying here.
And when I got back, oh my god,it was it was so clean.
(01:30):
I thought I thought I was cleanliving, but clearly I'm I'm a
slob just as much as every otherguy.
Now I think I I'm I'm on thisthis new concoction called
StreamYard.
And it's got fun things that wecan do.
Well, not we, not collectively.
(01:51):
All we can do is I can talk, andmaybe if I'm very lucky, you can
listen.
But apparently I can play.
I can I can I can set us up.
Oh my god, what happened to it?
I had music, uh, it's letting medown.
Why do they do these things?
Because now it doesn't sound asif it's sound as if it's out of
(02:14):
control, damn.
But you know, I this was memeant to be.
This is what happens, never.
Uh there was this what is thatHollywood saying?
Never share a stage with dogs,pets, animals, and kids.
And then later on in the worldof finance they added, never
(02:37):
share a stage with Henry.
Let's do the introduction.
Where do you hear it?
Isn't it blessed?
Time for me to talk.
Let's start, my brothers andsisters, let's start at the very
(03:01):
beginning.
Because it's a very good placeto start.
When you read, you begin with AB C the alphabet of love.
SPEAKER_00 (03:12):
When you sing you begin with Dore Mi Do Re Mi Do
Re Me.
SPEAKER_01 (03:20):
Hmm, let's see if I can make this easier.
SPEAKER_00 (03:23):
Do a deer, a female deer, re a drop.
SPEAKER_01 (03:31):
Me! Let's make myself a long way to run.
A needle pulling thread.
La, a note to follow so tea, adrink, German bread.
SPEAKER_00 (03:46):
That will bring us back to shut up.
The sound of music.
I that came on.
I was driving a big car throughthe star via.
SPEAKER_01 (04:04):
And I've got a I mean, I'm like a carnival.
I have an external speaker thatjust boom, boom, boom,
broadcasts in the vicinity.
And it was normally it's kindarock music, but today it was
Dore Me, and I was like, I'mshading it with my brothers, my
(04:27):
brothers and sisters.
I do like this music.
You don't find it indulgent.
Um George Gammon.
George Garmin.
George Gammon and the economictheoretical theology, the
(04:51):
theologian.
Um, you know, it's odd like.
Carl Marx.
Carl Marx.
Carl Max.
I I was I'm learning new socialmedia tools.
I'm actually learning.
Oh, it stopped.
Goodbye.
(05:11):
That's the end of the show.
It was a quick one tonight.
No, there's more to go.
I've been talking for fiveminutes.
I can't.
I like so George was telling mehow I should really be talking
to girls.
I'm getting it all wrong.
Unlucky in love.
That's not true.
But he's also teaching me howyou communicate, like social
(05:33):
media is really like talking topretty girls.
I'm finding that fascinating.
Anyway, so I was setting up thispiece.
You know, he's got lots offollowers, him and Brent
Johnson.
Not like little old me.
And I'm like, hey, and and youknow, last weekend he was here.
(05:54):
And actually it reminds me of astory of my my one of my kids
had to do an essay.
A legal essay.
Can't quite remember thecontext.
And my ex-wife, an advocate, anadvocate, a lawyer, assisted and
kind of partly wrote the essay.
(06:15):
And the kid's score was uh-uh.
Actually, I've got more.
How do you read it?
Uh-uh.
I don't know.
You know, the kid's essay.
unknown (06:32):
What?
SPEAKER_01 (06:39):
I got a very forgive me, this is gonna be even more
annoying than usual.
I have to entertain myself.
Yeah, it got it got really poormarks.
Actually, it wasn't one of thekids, it was her sister who was
doing an MBA and had to write aLego essay.
Why?
(06:59):
What was I talking about thattook me into that?
Yes, George Gowan.
And and so um, I'm like, hey,what apparently I was like a
hedge fund guru.
Still, maybe it can be sometimesI can say intelligent things.
And he was telling me about hisCarmax and he was doing a Paris
(07:21):
trade, and we discussed this.
And I spent the weekend saying,George, oh my god, you're such
an amateur, you're the king ofsocial media, but that no one
does pairs trading because youknow, risk reduction, and
therefore, if we ever get kindof two or three Z-score type
days where the SP might mightfall 10%, you probably find that
(07:47):
your karma, you well, your longsomething is down 10%, not good,
and your short something whichwill probably rally, really not
good.
So I was beseeching him to tocover.
And uh and then I decided to puta little kind of thread out
there on on Twitter, likesaying, Oh, George, you know,
(08:10):
you're an amateur, I'm anexpert.
And and George is on WhatsAppand he's he's laughing his head
off.
He's like, oog, oog, huh, huh,huh, huh?
Check the monitor, check themonitor.
I'm like, what monitor?
My heart monitor?
Hold on a second.
Heart heart monitor?
I was like, I was thinking.
(08:33):
I'm loving this, hold on asecond.
I was like, George, what he'slike, yeah, no, no.
That is the sound of a DeathStar.
Carl Car Max was joining KarlMax Marx in the cemetery.
Oh my god, pull it together.
Stop having fun.
(08:55):
Car CarMax, the the UnitedStates, the largest retailer of
secondhand automobiles.
It tumbled.
Tumbled?
I don't think tumbled is theright adjective.
It collapsed 24% on Thursday.
Closing around about$30.
(09:15):
The shares are now down to theirlowest level in 15 years.
And no mercy, no mercy was shownto the the long-standing chief
executive.
None.
Bill Bill Nash Nash got slashed.
Been with the company for 30years, departure immediate.
(09:38):
They're like, slinger hook andget out of here.
Also, they they kicked him offthe board.
They're mighty beeved.
Company, it was it's it's nowcut its earnings per share, who
cares, to somewhere between 18and 36 cents, which means like
we don't know.
(09:59):
And the Wall Street consensushad been for 69, 69, no more.
What's going on?
The same store sales.
Now expected to decline, let'scall it 10%.
Where analysts have been like,yeah, they've been kind of
(10:20):
bearish, they've been lookingfor like a two and a half, three
percent decline.
Nope, 10, maybe 12.
What's going on?
And this can get that there isrelevance in this.
A pull forward, a poo.
We borrowed, we put our we wereached out and we pulled the
(10:40):
future into today overconsumption.
I mean, we're doing that withdebt.
We're pooling the debt capacityof the American economy over
decades, and we're pooling itvery selfishly, and we're
consuming that debt on lots ofcrazy shit.
(11:05):
Pooling from the future.
And what was happening wastariffs, tariffs, price.
I mean cars I am amazed.
Cars are really I have no ideaabout real life.
Cars are really, reallyexpensive.
(11:26):
And if you can hear a guggle,I'm I'm not gargling, but I'm
drinking I'm drinking water outof a glass glass bottle.
Yeah, like a shitty car, co ashitty brand new car cost you
like what, 20, 25,000?
(11:47):
A kind of run-of-the-mill familycar, 40,000?
And they all look the same.
But put a tariff on top of that,and that's a big deal.
So people were buying cars andbuying secondhand cars ahead of
the tariffs.
And so that confused things.
(12:09):
And actually, so uh this is thisis something which is
spontaneous.
Uh the cobweb theater uh runninga business is kind of
complicated.
Even the guys who manufacturetoothpaste, toothpaste, I'm
brush, I'm pretending to brushmy teeth to camera toothpaste.
(12:32):
I mean, you don't there are novariable lags or booms and busts
in toothpaste.
And yet, they tell me themanufacturing, the ordering and
the inventory, it's a complextask.
Back in the day when I worked inEdinburgh, of course, we had an
(12:53):
investment in at the time youcould invest directly in
independent whiskey companies.
And you were essentially, theywere wonderful, but they were
time capsules, you know, whiskeyheritage, and it's 10 years old.
But think of the complexity andthe demand curve, not the curve,
(13:14):
but the the theory there is thecobweb or the hog cycle, that
you're having to make decisionsin the here and now for a
product that you're going tosell in 10 years' time.
And I'm saying to you that theguy who sells toothpaste, I
mean, he's he's not struggling,but it's still a science to know
(13:37):
how much to produce the weekbefore, the month before.
Never mind 10 years before.
And and of course, they'reyou're constantly getting it
wrong, but with these huge timelags, which then create huge
price effects.
(13:58):
And so we saw a lot of that inCarmax, and it's very much at
the root of the debate on the USeconomy.
This is a macro show.
We are supposed, we, the royal,we, me, you, no, me, I'm
supposed to tell you about uhthe day's economic data.
What did we get?
(14:18):
We got the Michigan, theconsumer sentiment index, and
and actually is for November.
Remember, remember the 7th ofNovember or the 8th by the time
you hear this, Michigan consumerwas down at 50.
There's a decimal point inthere, but you would round it to
50.
And that was down from again,we're gonna round the decimal
(14:42):
point up a little bit.
So to fifth, it was 54 inOctober.
So 54 to 50.
Consensus had been 53.
Now, to make this more realisticto those of you listening in
your earbuds, the long-termaverage of the index is around
85.
(15:02):
And it hit, I mean, is thistrue?
So it hit a record low of 50 inJune 22 amid fears of the
pandemic inflation.
So it's pretty much on consumersentiment, it is on crisis
(15:22):
levels.
I am looking at the Universityof Michigan consumer sentiment,
and I am looking at it from youknow me, I like long, look
looking at lot as much data aspossible.
And it it was 50 back in 1980recession.
Very high interest rates, 16%interest rates.
(15:44):
Oh, sentiment would stink.
The highest reading ever was inthe yeah, in the year leading up
to uh the the tech bubble, uh,the end of the century, 1990,
party, like it's 1999.
It's as high as it's been, andit got to 110.
(16:06):
Interesting, the comparisonstoday.
You know, you can't read aninvestment report on tech
without the comparison of AI anddata centers to global crossing
and dark fiber, the exuberanceof the stock market.
Well, the exuberance of thestock market was being
(16:29):
disseminated and passed throughto consumer sentiment.
You know, the consumer is 70% ofthe economy.
So you had a double positivewhammy.
Stocks were up, the economy wasup, people felt good.
What you can categorically saytoday is I mean, my god, stocks
(16:50):
had been on it, stocks have beeneverywhere, but they've been
mostly up, but they did fall.
I mean, Nasdaq at one point thisyear was down 20% on the year,
the SP was down about over 10%on the year, and then the SP was
up 15%, and the Nasdaq was up20%, so we've had huge
(17:11):
movements, but the consumersentiment is on his ass.
It's a really, reallyinteresting, remarkable uh
chart.
I mean, it's not a remarkablechart, but it I didn't know
that.
I did not know that.
We are the levels of consumersentiment that we saw during the
(17:33):
exceptional period of the COVID.
In fact, we're below thoselevels.
I mean, you could argue we justkept going.
Like COVID wasn't good forsentiment.
The government spending or thethe inflation that it generated
wasn't good for sentiment.
(17:53):
And we're at levels that youassociate with 2008-2009.
We're at levels you associate infact we're lower than than the
savings and loan crisis in 1990.
And we're even lower when thanwhen the Fed was at 16% interest
rates in 1980.
(18:15):
So that's quite a that'sactually that I think that calls
for an intervention.
Heartbeat of I know what you'resaying, I become James James
Kramer and Jimmy Kramer, but youknow, but consumer sentiment.
I mean, I'm like I'm sorry.
(18:41):
Do you know that expression,Nick La Police?
Again, we're we're jumping off.
Do you know the biggest rapband, fantastic rap rap band, in
France?
I do not, do not, do not saythat's an oxymoron, because
there's some amazing uh Frenchrap.
(19:01):
But the biggest band, like goingback the last 30 years, is NTM.
And NTM is an acronym only inFrance.
Do you know what NTM stands for?
The French people are like,yeah.
Would you like to know?
You're like, no, okay, I'm gonnatell you.
And again, hold on a second.
SPEAKER_00 (19:27):
It means Nik Nick Niktapolit.
What Nik?
Oh Nik Tamer.
SPEAKER_01 (19:36):
Nique Tamer and Nik means fuck.
So it's fuck your mother is thename.
You can't make this shit up, isthe name of the biggest rap band
in France.
And actually it's quite a jovialterm.
Like, if you if something, if helike rather than go high five to
(19:58):
your friend, you go hey NiqueTamer.
I use it all the time, NickTamer, motherfucker.
Nick Tamer, how did we get ohyeah, we were talking about
consumer sentiment.
Oh, and uh La Haine, my kidCameron, he has La Haine.
He's a tattoo there.
Brilliant, amazing, amazingmovie that they created the star
(20:22):
of Vincent Cassell.
And they have a lot of like theyhave a lot of in the the suburbs
and you know those riots andpitchback and the cops and the
you know the youth, the youth oftoday.
Is there tequila in my water?
(20:42):
When I was younger, um look itup, the musical youth, the youth
of today, the oh, and they hadthis great song called Pass the
Duchy on the Left Hand Side.
And there was this program.
I mean, there are about I thinkI think 40% of the podcast is
called up by the citizens ofLondon.
(21:03):
So you'll know what I'm talkingabout.
There was a kid's show calledBlue Peter, very, very
respectable.
And they kind of they taught youorigami and it was boring as
hell, but they had the thelittle black London kids come on
and go, pass the duty on theleft hand side.
And and it was the Caribbeantradition where you've got to
pass the pass the joint to yourneighbor on the left hand side
(21:29):
and the blue peter.
The white folk were not aware ofit.
If they were aware of it.
Stop it, stop it, stop it, stopit.
Right.
What was I talking about?
Oh my god.
So consumer sentiment.
Uh notes.
I do have notes.
Come on, notes.
Note to self stop being afriggin' idiot.
(21:51):
But yeah, Michigan consumersentiment.
SPEAKER_00 (21:54):
Mmm.
Mmm.
Mmm.
SPEAKER_01 (21:57):
Then I think this shows why my what is my
recurring message?
Don't press your nose too closeto the window to look at the
economic data.
Take your time, ignore a lot ofit.
Just keep your eye on trend andprice.
(22:21):
Yesterday, all my troubles seemso far away.
Because we had the ADP privateuh sector report.
I now have neighbors and they'retalking.
I hope it's not messing with thesoundtrack.
I'll have to call the cops.
(22:41):
ADP was celebrated.
Today we got the Fletcher Grayreport.
Challenger, Fletcher, I don'tknow.
It's all grey.
And it reported 153,000announced job cuts.
ADP, on the other hand, we s wascelebrated.
(23:08):
And it was demonstrating 42,000new private sector jobs.
I'm hesitating.
If you could see me.
If you could see me, you wouldyou would sp out I'm like, this
is crazy.
So what's going on?
(23:29):
And which should we trust?
I don't trust any of them, butif I was to say something close
to being sensible, theChallenger report is kind of
more indicative of where we'regoing because it's announced
cuts, it's gross ADP's net.
So Challenger is going throughall public announcements from
(23:52):
companies, and actuallyChallenger is also picking up
public sector uh data.
And so some of these announcedlayoffs might not happen.
But right now, on the basis ofuh discourse from companies, the
intention is to lose 153,000.
(24:14):
Now again, statistics, damndamn, damn.
Statistics.
So and this title is calledChallenger, Grey and Christmas.
Challenger, Grey and Christmas?
Why'd you put Christmas inthere?
I know.
Those job cuts were 183% greaterthan the month before.
(24:39):
Or September.
Is this for November or October?
I think it may be October.
Now here's the bit.
It was the the worst.
Let me get this right.
It was October.
And it was the worst in terms ofbiggest job cut announcement for
(25:00):
the month of October in theChallenger Grey and Christmas
series since October 2003.
But here's how they mess withstatistics.
The headline.
(25:28):
Job layoffs start to two decadehigh.
It's not true.
Pants on fire.
I mean, I did say to you theother day that job cuts look as
if they're running at just undera million job cuts.
And that's up like I want to say50% from the year before.
(25:48):
But you've got to go back to2023, not 2003.
2023 no 2020, that impact yearof the pandemic.
And there it was over 2 million.
You see statistics.
I read something.
Does this happen to you?
(26:09):
Sometimes I st I stumble intowhat do they call it?
I'm now um I'm moving my screen.
Yeah.
Actually, not notifications, yougo to home and there are two
choices, for you or following.
And sometimes I it defaults foryou.
(26:32):
No, for you is crazy universe.
Lots of really, really fuckingcrazy things come up on that, on
that teleprompter.
Following, I've had a chance tokind of like even it out.
There was actually about asix-month period where I didn't
really I didn't know what hadhappened, and I was stuck on for
(26:53):
you, and I was just gettingcrazy, crazy batshit.
Alex Carp type stuff.
But anyway, so I was on thisdefault, and this thing came up
about I think it was rosemary,you know, the the herb, the
herb.
I really like rosemary on a on apotato.
I like it in a bush.
(27:13):
Rosemary is one of my favoritebushes.
Why am I laughing when I saybush?
Black forest gâteau.
Sorry where that came from.
Oh yeah, a rosemary.
And it was saying, wow, the thescience has discovered that the
(27:36):
this the odor of rosemary it itsets off something biologically
in in the blood, which you knowwhen we're getting older, like
we are not getting we're we'renot as good at like Pac-Man and
eating up the sentient.
Sentient means the dead cellsand they hang around better and
stuff like that.
It was like rosemary would wouldhelp as you begin you'd be
(28:01):
getting good cleansing,especially for the brain.
It's gonna keep you smarter.
And they had a a study whichrevealed that students who were
sniffing the rosemary wereoutperforming on memory tasks.
I thought, and it was like, hey,maybe you should you should have
you have a stick.
(28:22):
I mean, you should have a stickof rosemary with you all the
time, why not?
I mean, I mean I you can I Ithink I'm gonna do that.
Maybe in the next show I'll havea stick of rosemary.
Still coughing.
Now I've got dogs.
Hold on, hang on.
Hold on.
Can you I if you can hear thesound of dogs, then you
(28:44):
understand that we need I don'tknow if you're hearing that, but
I have shot the dogs.
Anyway, so I put into the thethinking, the pro aspect, the
pro part of Chat GPT, and it'slike, uh, is this real?
(29:08):
I don't know.
And you know, so it cannotcalculate compound annual growth
rates, but it's like this is acrock of shit.
First of all, the sample size ofthe study is 144 like elementary
school kids, and you're tryingto like extrapolate to the 8
(29:28):
billion people in the world.
I mean, 144 people! Like, whydon't you try 100,000 people?
And and then this is so I gotinto this code de sac because of
the media's use of thechallenger data, which was
statistically the worst or thelargest amount of layoffs since
(29:52):
2003.
But the headline was the worstlayoffs in 20 years.
No.
And they did the same trick.
here and I think they do this.
I'm pretty sure this is atechnique, social media
technique, when you've got somestupid you know, like chocolate
makes you I mean you know I wasgonna say makes you uh it's
(30:14):
healthy.
I mean I I do buy into that darkchocolate.
Uh but even then I've I'vestopped eating old chocolate.
But yeah the the technique forgetting attention is you put out
an announcement and you make afactual error which then gets
(30:34):
copied by someone else and andgets tweeted or whatever gets
disseminated.
And so the error becomes thefocal point.
And that's what happened here.
It was saying there was a thestudy revealed a 71 71%
improvement in memory butactually what had happened was
the report when it was sent outthe first newspaper to report on
(30:57):
it said the report was a 7.1%7.1 but it was reported by the
first newspaper there was a typoand I bet you they were paid for
the typo supposition by me evilsupposition you you kinda
underhand and you give thenewspaper a potovan is the
(31:21):
French say a bribe and they theytake 7.1 and they make a mistake
and it becomes 71 and then noone corrects it.
Just shocking what happensanyway we are I'm now into 30
(31:42):
minutes.
This has to be done in an hourso I didn't think I was going to
be singing to you tonight we'vedone consumer sentiment we've
done jobs oh yes the the exportsChina's exports in October
(32:09):
China's export figures theydisappointed tariffs again they
would they this time last yearthey were they were exceeding
expectations and now they'redisappointed and it shouldn't be
a very great surprise but youknow markets need drama and the
practitioners in the economicsfield are useless.
(32:32):
October Chinese exportscontracted they fell 1.1% year
over year the expectation wasmodest growth is the expectation
modest growth why was it modestgrowth and then the other
challenge and I can't get to thebottom of this so they
contracted 1.1% is that volumeor is that volume time times
(32:55):
price?
I think you know it's volume solike is it the nominal value or
is it the the number of units?
I think it's the nominal value.
And when you consider thetariffs ranging from 25 to 140%
on Chinese products direct tothe US economy since the what's
it called Independence Day orwhatever April 5th that's a big
(33:24):
deal because it should be up ifthe volume was the same and you
were paying like a tariff of 25%it should be up a lot but
instead it's actually down one1% if anyone's got the answer to
that let me know I cannot Ithink I'm right there but I'm I
cannot say hand on heartabsolutely exports I wrote the
(33:53):
uh the Chinese export figuresthat was globally and they were
the weakest in eight months andI believe I think it was exports
to the US actually sh shrank forthe first time in about 18
months was that U I'm a bitconfused what I'm saying there
(34:19):
but I did read somewhere I wroteI I I I don't like I like
writing little cryptic things.
But I did write Chinese exportsshrank for the first time in
about 18 months exports to theUS they did plunge 25% year over
year.
Again if that's volume timesprice that's a huge decline.
(34:43):
But here's a twist so again didyou read this this is this is
breaking news there was abreaking news asset where is it
drum roll applause heartbeatmore sounds breaking news I'm
sure I saw breaking newsbreaking news I can't see
breaking news but I do see nobreaking news don't see it what
(35:07):
would break news sound likedon't know this breaking news
yeah so I was saying to you thatChinese exports to the US down a
(35:34):
lot down a lot my friends down25% year over year.
But the American Chinese orChina's trade balance with the
US obviously it's the tradesurplus exports decline 25% the
(35:55):
trade surplus goes up goes up isthat I mean it doesn't go up a
lot like the Chinese are likeyou want to fuck with us we're
gonna fuck with you so they cutback on soya beans and the like
I mean they're tough cookiesanyway so that's data.
(36:22):
I think we can do this in inunder an hour pretty sure we can
that's 40 minutes stocks arefalling tech's falling what's
the front page of the of thecommie pink financial times tech
stocks suffer worse week sinceApril after 800 billion I mean
I'm surprised they didn't sayafter a trillion dollar AI
(36:46):
sell-off and again I think I wassuggesting to you that the
pernicious pernicious perniciousnature of stocks stocks are mean
(37:08):
stocks are mean the systems meanstocks will travel in the
direction what do people say ofleast resistance?
No stocks will go in thedirection which causes the
greatest consternation amongstthe most which is to say stocks
(37:33):
will go to the point whichpisses off the most number of
market participants.
That's where they go time andtime again they go there and
they go how are you feeling wediscussed that the other day I
was likening the pool theperiodic pullback in stock
prices pulling back meanreverting and stocks rise the
(37:55):
but it's a mean reversion meanreverting upward price series
but they revert and the reverseis very emotional and it
converts faith into denial andthis show is all about trying to
help you with that tough journeyand I would it was just the
(38:23):
other day Wednesday and I wassaying to you S B was down 10%
going into April on the year.
And then it was up betweensomewhere between 10 and 15% so
kind of 25% off the lows NASDAQhad a 40% reversal to the upside
and we were the it and it pulledthe one year which is the
(38:47):
tortoise the slow movingcreature was kind of up 12 13
1415 depending on the index andof course the spot price which
is the hair which runs very fastwas was up here and so the real
danger of a 20% 25% pullbackwe're seeing that now did I one
(39:09):
of the charts I saw was OracleOracle has round tripped it got
that great was it AI AI was itchat GPT that signed them that
deal and I'm I was watching theall in YouTube podcast show and
and they had that I don't knowwhat was it called Brad Setzer
(39:33):
the one who wrote the openletter to Meta saying hey you
know you want to get better youwant to you want to like
actually run the companyseriously and and he he he
picked he managed to capture agreat buying opportunity and and
he he got the mind of Zuckerbergor he got lucky same thing in
(39:56):
this business.
But I'd missed that he he'd beenon a on a show during the week
with Sam Altman I have said I doknow there's something about Sam
I don't like there's somethingabout the night about that man.
And anyway the investor who'sactually has a big lump of stock
(40:18):
in ChatGPT and and would ideallylike to own more of it he asked
a very relevant question likeSam can you just explain to the
wider world how a business withactual revenue of$13 billion is
signing deals for capitalexpenditure of$1.5 trillion
(40:40):
dollars.
That's one and a half millionmillions when the revenue is
$13,000 million.
1.5 million millions is thecapex they're signing and and
Altman was just nasty nasty andand and people are smart on Wall
(41:04):
Street and they're like why ishe nasty?
Why is he prickly what is what'swhat's in his head he's having a
bad he's having a bad day I'vegot to tell you I was having a
really bad day a really reallybad day I I'm telling you I I I
left I moved house last nightand I have a I have three
(41:30):
cleaning ladies from Colombiaand they do not speak English or
French just Spanish and and theyare devoid of intelligence.
Now it's not their role to beintelligent but when I say
devoid I mean we're talkingabout almost zero intelligence
(41:51):
so I go home now one of mypassions now if you're listening
to this you won't get this butone of my passions is my glasses
I I have about 12 pairs ofglasses sunglasses must be about
$15 to$20,000 worth of glassesand they were all out of their
(42:15):
cases at Blanc Bleu.
But you would surmise that theladies in packing my luggage
would have put the glasses inthe case in a bag and everything
would be fine and dandy they didnot they took all of my glasses
and they put it in a bag andthat bag got lost.
(42:37):
So I spent most of last nightand most of today thinking that
my like my my identity me whatit is with the glasses is I look
like my mother I have mymother's eyes being very honest
with you and my my mother diedjust under two years ago but she
(43:00):
I wish it was a blessing becauseshe's had dementia and so you
see that the awful awful awfuldecline she used to wear glasses
but then she didn't wear glassesand I would see those eyes those
dead eyes and I could see me andanyway my I don't know I'd been
wearing glasses well before shegot dementia so I was not a
(43:25):
happy chappie and I was heavensI mean they're getting fired
don't tell but they are gettingfired and and you know I was
talking about the blonde thegoldy the 22 year old turns out
she had them they were in thefridge anyway I got my glasses
(43:45):
back so that was a bad day.
What was Sam's bad day we don'tknow but that didn't help with
the sentiment in technologysocks and again Oracle
interesting chart trader Mike Imet with him in Eder Rock he
(44:06):
sent me a message gorgeous girlthe waitress what's her name I
was like oh my dear he's likeshe's asking after you where are
you I'll be there I'm coming I'mcoming and you know oh my god I
was talking she is so beautifuland she was like well and she
(44:27):
wasn't happy with me so I was inanother bar writing notes for
these shows the select barselect and this dream girl came
up and said she was veryfamiliar with talking away and I
had no idea who she was becauseshe was like wearing a bikini
(44:48):
whatever and um and um so one ofthe problems is I know she knows
me and I know that I know herand I want to kind of you know
ask her on a date for a coffeeor whatever but she knows that I
know her and so I should know ifshe has a boyfriend.
It's complicated you see this iswhy I need George Gammon the Car
Max short seller extraordinaireanyway I was talking with Mike
(45:13):
Trader Mike and Friday is whenhe's everything's expiring like
stocks crash people panic Mikerents the chaos with covered
calls and so I mean he's got oneposition riot and it's a special
(45:34):
set so he he just knows it sowell so this is not a great
great great company but he he'sa kind of a horse whisperer he's
the algo whisperer he knowswhere in the in the range the
algos push the price higher andlower and he just he writes he
(45:55):
writes his calls on on on theappropriate points in that cycle
and it's it's got very credibleactive investors who are pushing
to change it from the Bitcoinminer to data center.
(46:18):
But that'll take a while and soBitcoin data centers we are
talking about a humongous amountof volatility which is to say
the options because volatilityis the principal component of
options the what what is thatextrinsic extrinsic the you know
(46:40):
when it's so volatile that theso it's not whether the options
in the money at the money out ofthe money is like between now
and that period the end theexpiration period if it's very
volatile then the uncertainty isso great.
So if I am an options writer Iprotect myself by making it very
(47:02):
very expensive to cover beingrisky and volatile.
Now remember Mike's selling thevery very expensive he's selling
the options and so it's thebeginning of his week if you
will today and he has amassed anenormous position once more.
(47:24):
I mean so he he he had been hehe he breathes he inhales he
exhales the acid breath wehaven't done that will save you
from the the shipping news butthe natural evolution of markets
(47:47):
when markets are when markets orsome of his stocks have become
excruciatingly weak then beingexcruciatingly weak so they've
fallen a lot then he is morewilling to to underwrite the
downside risk the more they'vefallen the more he's like yeah
(48:07):
okay I'll come in here I don't Iwas thinking about Solano Solano
being down about 40% and he'slike no okay and and and salt
the two times leverage so beingdown the best part of 80 and
he's like okay I mean if itfalls another 20 that's like 90%
and I'll I'll buy it anyway soI'll take that risk.
(48:31):
Anyway with riot Bitcoin minerinto data centers etter is part
of this if nothing happens andit goes sideways or it goes up
he's gonna make five and a halfpercent income in a week I wish
(48:54):
I'd done this earlier I'm gonnawrite it in what if I if I ask
it then it'll bust my recordingbut what is I don't know why I
am asking okay I'm gonna ask yousee who get get the number
faster and I bet your numberwill be better than mine my chat
GPT number but what is five anda half per percent per week and
(49:21):
you annualized return okay boomboom boom boom boom actually
let's let's make some noise whathave you got that is one
thousand five hundred and thirtysix percent maybe maybe that's
(49:43):
an hallucination but five and ahalf percent weekly if you can
compound it five and a halfpercent weekly your annual
return is going to be enormous Ican see why Kramer got tedious
and very annoying with thesethings so so five and a half
(50:05):
percent a week is a hell of alot but Mike's like I'm not I'm
not sure he he's he iscontemplative and ro and and
reflecting on where does themarket go from here like
everyone else so there's aninteresting is there at any
(50:27):
point there but these marketsseem different these markets
have changed these markets haveevolved these markets are
frankly much better um we'vealways had if you will automatic
(50:52):
stabilizers greed and fearNasdaq went from being down 20%
to up 20% on the year a 40% movein April five months and people
start getting fearful anenlightening position and
arguably sell would get sellerand prices reverse NASDAQ being
(51:17):
down 20% people get greedy theriot the the special sit that
Mike's playing the 5.5% is likeI'm kind of getting greedy so
what I want to say is it's notjust price declines it's not
just like the price earningsratio gets gets lower the
dividend yield gets higher theuh the valuation becomes a
(51:40):
compelling talking piece it isactually that with the
preponderance of of tradingthat's being conducted through
options there are some amazingopportun potential opportunities
lucrative opportunities thatemerge when prices fall a lot in
(52:03):
very volatile areas but here'swhere it is hard so the oracles
of in the substack I'm gonnaI'll do the essay of this and
push up the charts and Oraclelooks intriguing but remember
one of the caveats of Mike'sgreat strategy is he will buy
(52:27):
outstanding world classcompanies so that there's a
caveat there are not many ofthem and Oracle is arguably one
I have no argument with that butthen he goes on to say that a
fallen 60% and Oracle certainlyhas and it's just reversed some
of the blow of craziness fromthat last deal.
(52:53):
So he's not coming in to do thatdeal we were discussing doing
that with Bitcoin maybe you knowand he was going to tell me he
didn't come back to me I wouldsuspect you're probably looking
at three percent by doingcovered calls and I would say
(53:15):
three percent so let's put haveyou have you got the answer yet?
What is three percent per weekannualized return put that in I
think we've got to do the wegotta do the drum again three
(53:38):
hundred and thirty six percentsounds about right but how much
of being able to get about threepercent per week how much maybe
that protects you if Bitcoingoes from it was actually up
today from 102 what if it goesdown to 80 are you a buyer at 80
(53:59):
or are you going to be a buyerat 60?
You see that's these are the thedeliberations and they are
interesting deliberations I wantto wrap in the next uh five
minutes if I don't rap I amgoing to be screaming at myself
okay the didn't we talk aboutfractals?
(54:24):
Yeah so one of the other ones ismeta looking at my notes meta
meta meta meta meta so meta thisyear following in the footsteps
(54:46):
of Nasdaq being a principalcomponent of the movement in
Nasdaq went from 480 in April upto 800 I mean wow like that's
what over a trillion dollars ofmarket valuation expansion and
(55:08):
today it's 600 because the kidis just pumping he's like he
he's he's got it he's got thehe's got the the fever and his
capex is enormous and there's alot of kind of funky off balance
(55:28):
sheet opaque financing specialpurpose vehicles things that
bring back fears of otherperiods of excess and so it's
been dumped and 600 so when youhave so I want you to think of
(55:50):
meta being climbing climbing aspiral staircase to heaven and
sometimes the ascent to heavenyou come across obstacles and
(56:12):
you have to take a few stepsback can you can you hear me
because I'm back I'm okay I'mback to the computer.
You have to take a few of thosesteps back before you start
climbing the rotating rotunda toheaven Fibonacci retracement
lines are those steps back andthey're a fascination they're
(56:38):
kind of groovy it's nature andit's crowd psychology is it pop
culture or pop pop goes theweasel but those steps they're
(56:59):
particular levels fractals andthese fractals work so you can
put these charts in thesepatterns doesn't matter if it's
yearly monthly tick data hourlydata you'll get these patterns
and is it a placebo but tradersare drawn to that and they will
have trading orders congregatingaround these levels.
(57:23):
So 61.2 is one of the the bigFibonacci and that's where Meta
is trading having come down from800 to 600 another fun thing is
what I keep saying mind the gapMeta had a gap.
Meta there was a newsannouncement and it was so damn
(57:46):
exciting that the first stopprint the day after was actually
higher than the day before thatyou didn't have continuous price
that there was this interruptionand so if it closed at 520 the
day before the first print was525 as a gap gaps get filled
(58:10):
especially if I buy them aboveand there was a gap a gap in May
and the gap you don't need me totell you the gap it got filled
where was the gap so I'm justlook I'm looking at it now me
(58:32):
yeah the gap was around about550 or so so you're up at you're
at 800 some crazy supposed arebuying it at 800 they're buying
above the gap you're like comeon not gonna go back all the way
down there they did anyway Ishould have said so I'm
(58:58):
conscious we're we're on the twominutes to the hour mark R Max
consumer sentiment Chineseexports tariffs human trader
(59:19):
behavior we know there's goingto be a price hike as the tariff
we ordered before and we poo webring demand forward and we're
now in a period of deficit we'vecan the economy is weaker
(59:40):
because of that action and takeone step back further the last
three years Steve Merrin and theargument of we we we had we've
had a change in politicalideology very steep like a
handbrake turn and oneadministration in America was
saying hey come in get over thewall Oh, become a Democrat, vote
(01:00:01):
for us.
And unprecedented numbers camein and came in rapidly.
And they were buying used cars.
And then another administrationsaid, get out of here.
And these people I'mexaggerating, but they fled.
They left everything behind.
They left their apartments,their cars, their used cars.
(01:00:26):
And at the same time, I wassaying to you, this stock market
is different.
Everything evolves, it getsbetter.
The options and then the notionyou get drawdowns, but suddenly
the temptation, the greedtemptation, this is the point.
Mike is an amazing investor.
(01:00:46):
And he's getting greedy.
But he's just a little bit wearyabout where we are.
Why is he waiting?
He's waiting because of these ofthe evolution of innovation in
finance.
And we discussed this then.
Money.
Inflation is a monetaryphenomenon.
(01:01:09):
But but what is money?
And the Fed thinks it's M zeroand M2.
It thinks it's bank reserves,reserves captured within the
jurisdiction of the UnitedStates economy.
And as Michigan, as as theidiot, my my very I have all of
my listeners are very smart,very clever, very endearing,
(01:01:30):
very acid.
But as he was pointing out,evolution in in money, why would
you create dollars within thejurisdiction of the US and being
and being under thejurisprudence of the Federal
Reserve when you can do itoffshore, free of sanction, you
(01:01:52):
can leverage it as much as youwish.
It's unregulated.
It's very, very profitable.
And we're creating more dollarsthat way.
And it's dependent on so it'snot on bank reserves, but it's
on collateral.
We talked about how stockportfolios can be collateral.
You can pledge your portfolioand you'll be given credit.
(01:02:16):
It might be 50 eggs of what youpledged.
It might be five.
And then we were discussing anew fondness for using invoices
and trade invoices.
And we we've seen a lot oftrade.
(01:02:38):
This generation is defined bytrade, the immense emergent
trade of China with the rest ofthe world.
It's huge export trade with theUnited States.
And it's like, well, hold on asecond, let's facturize the
(01:03:00):
invoices between the US importerand the Chinese exporter, or
vice versa.
That's collateral.
And we'll create more moneyagain.
Trader Mike's thinking, and he'sseeing the signs.
UBS are closing not one fund,they're closing two funds.
BlackRock are closing a creditfund.
(01:03:22):
Regional banks are always kindof on the cusp of being needy.
Because who would be a regionalbank when I can be an
international money center bankand I can be printing dollars
offshore?
Why would I be in Cincinnati?
And they're kind of picking upstrain.
(01:03:44):
And then there's all sorts ofacronyms coming out of the
Federal Reserve and they'replumbing, and they're indicating
strain.
My instinct is I think where weare is a pullback.
I and I can't see things rushinghigher immediately.
(01:04:08):
And I certainly would be lookingfor buying opportunities, but
probably probably not rushing.
And I'm listening to Trader Mikefor the the smart ones which
give me protection.
That's where we are.
And I wanted to close.
(01:04:30):
I must play more music.
Hold on a second.
Um let's let me oh yeah.
I know what I can do.
I think it's time.
I am gonna leave you, ladies andgentlemen.
You'll be listening to this theweekend of the 8th and the 9th
of November.
And I truly, from the bottom ofmy heart, I hope you have one of
(01:04:52):
the best weekends ever.
I have clients staying in myhouse, and a couple are being
married tomorrow.
May it rain today.
May it not rain on their parade,may it not rain on you.
May your heart be full of joyfulsunshine.
And and and please allow me theindulgence of what is called the
(01:05:19):
green sunny soft.
Let me talk over it.
Um we sp I spoke to you aboutfeminine.
I spoke to you about thatspiraling staircase to heaven
and the retracements, the stepsbackwards.
I'm talking about pie.
(01:05:46):
We're talking about somethingvery dear to me.
The infinite flirt withmathematics.
Three spot one four one fivenine.
Do you know what?
I've been thinking, but I wantto get another two.
I'm gonna get three spot onefour one five nine.
(01:06:08):
Maybe I'm gonna get it one morefour.
Tell me what I should get.
Like maybe I should get it.
Well should get it.
Three split it between the arms.
Maybe I'll put it down my arm.
These digits, my fingers, I willdigits of high tumbling into
(01:06:32):
eternity.
No pattern, no mercy.
The ratio is the ratio of acircle, circumference to its
diameter, circumference roundand remote, and the diameter is
the fastest as the crow fliesfrom one end to the other.
(01:06:53):
I this mathematical flirtation,the symbol the symbol of
everything humans can measure,but yet we never fully grasp.
Geometry waves probabilityheels.
The fingerprint of rotation, thefingerprint of rhythm itself,
(01:07:16):
eyes in the orbit of planets,the ripple of ponds, the bell
curve, the scores of clouds.
It's a whisper from the geometryof the universe, and it reminds
me at least that perfection.
Oh my god, perfection isendless.
(01:07:40):
And us we only ever trace itsshadow.
Good night to you all.
This is Hugh Hendry.
I am the acid capitalist, and Iam gonna have an amazing
weekend.
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