September 5, 2023 • 21 mins
Tom Opferman and Matt Williamson break down the Steelers upcoming opponent, the San Francisco 49ers
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do. This is the Advanced
Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson. Third year of
the Advanced Scout. Matt, I can't believe they brought us back. Well,
I believe they brought you back. I can't believe they
let a shlub like me come along again for a
third year. I thought I was on the chopping block.
But here we are again. If you're new to the
Advanced Scout podcast, tell you a little something about what
(00:22):
we do here. Matt and I take a look at
the Steelers' opponent of the upcoming week. You know, really
a behind the enemy lines kind of thing where we
focus on the Niners. Some Steelers takes might trickle in
there every once in a while, but it's a Niners
focused podcast. It's a focus on the team that's coming
up this week, which would be the Niners on Sunday. Matt,
Before we get into that, just a little thirty thousand
(00:43):
view of this matchup. Sant Franz finished the season at
thirteen and four, and once upon a time last year.
It might surprise people to remember Sanfrey was three and
four at one point this season, had a losing record,
quarterback and then ripped off ten straight wins, brought Perty emerged.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
And they crady for McCaffrey.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
They had the league's highest scoring differential plus one seventy three.
I mean, they were arguably one of the better teams,
if not maybe the second best team behind the Chiefs,
third best team behind the Eagles, two in the entire
NFL last year. And the Steelers, on the other hand,
slow start to the season like the Niners, finished hot
down the stretch to the Niners extent, but ended up
(01:22):
with a nine to eight record, of course, and their
point differential were outscored by their opponents. It was minus
thirty eight on the season. But the good news is
they were seven to two and then on the stretch
and they had a plus thirty nine point differential. Another
thing that was pretty interesting last year was the Niners
won a league high eleven games by more than one
score and only one team had a lead on the
Niners at halftime. That crazy in twenty twenty two, yeah, insane, I.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Mean even though they had four losses.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
I mean still, I was reading some of these stats
and it was like, I'd have to do a lot
more research into this, but this really could be maybe
one of the better teams that did not win a
Super Bowl. It didn't even make it too y.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Question and think about their winning streak going deep into
the playoffs, how it ended they didn't have any quarterbacks.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
No quarterback.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
I think they're on the road in Philly, and that
doesn't mean they'd have won with party, but they ran
out of quarterbacks, or maybe they'd still have a winning street.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Quick series history before we dive into the nitty gritty
of the Niners. The Steelers have been to the Super
Bowl eight times, winning six of them. Of course, San
Francisco has been to seven Super Bowls and they have
won five championships. Yet those two winning organizations have yet
to meet in that final game. It's kind of like
the greatest rivalry that never happened in the NFL, Like
they're always kind of running parallel to each other, just
never had that intersection. But Pittsburgh and the Niners have
(02:31):
met twenty two times in the regular season going back
to nineteen fifty one. The Niners have won a dozen
of those matchups. The Steelers only won two of the
first seven games played between the two franchises between nineteen
seventy three and nineteen eighty seven, Pittsburgh lost just one
of the six meetings. They didn't lose often in that
era here in Pittsburgh. Neither team has been able to
put a winning street together in this series over the
past seven games, with San Francisco winning the most recent
(02:53):
one back in twenty nineteen. So maybe that bodes well
for the Steelers. Looks like it's coming back in the
other direction. The Steelers will win this one. They keep alternating.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Yeah, I say, it doesn't seem like there's real streaks involved.
There's not a lot of real classic games, even though
these are two of the best and storied in winning
his franchises of our lifetimes, you know, best of mine.
I'm going back to the seventies. Maybe there's Super Bowls coming.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Up ticket and every other year quarterback. You know, that's
funny you just said that. This is coming off the
top of my head here. But I wonder if Pickett,
you know, I don't know if he's this kind of guy,
m but I wonder if he's sitting there going you know,
I was the first pick quarterback, and this is the
last last year. This guy's the last pick, and he
gets all the headlines and he gets all the buzz.
I wonder if there's a little extra chip on his
(03:37):
shoulder here, Like week one, he's coming into my dojo.
Let me show the world that I was the number
twenty overall pick not three hundred whatever.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
How could you not? And frankly, I get asked this
a lot, who dry that party? Your picket? I'm like, picket, picket.
It's it's really not that close, you know. And Party
did really really good things last year. He absolutely did.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Yeah, we'll get to party in the Niners offense in
just a little bit. Wanted to start on the defensive
side of the football though, because I I think that's
arguably one of the best defenses in the NFL. It
statistically was last year. They were first and yards allowed
per game. They were second in rushing yards allowed per game,
they were first in points allowed per game. I mean,
everywhere you look with the Niners defense, except for maybe
(04:15):
the past defense, it was elite status. And you know,
I mentioned fewest yards per game than any other defense
last year. One thing that's really jumped out for me
last year the defense forced a three and out situation
on forty PM, just half the time that you're out
on the field. You have three plays and you're done
against the forty nine ers. So I know we're not
(04:37):
going to bury the lead here. And a big part
of that defensive success last year was Nick Bosa. Eighteen
and a half sacks led the team. Asan Reddick, the
only player in the NFL that had more than Bosa
last year is the reigning defensive player of the year.
We take this on Tuesday. It doesn't look like he's
going to be there available for the Niners. Doesn't seem
like a deal is imminent, and even if it is,
(04:58):
I mean, I can hardly expect him to be Nick
Bosa when he steps on the field on see. Yeah,
after missing all this time.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
So a couple things about how he's as important as TJ. Watt.
I mean, I think everyone's familiar or at least has
some clue about the Steelers defense with Watt versus not.
I mean, all the stats, any stat you look at
is drastically worse without And so they've played fifteen games
since he's been drafted. Without him, they're five and ten
in those games. Yeah, very watte ish. And another stat
(05:28):
I dug up just this morning was even last year,
the pass rush snaps when he was either sideline or
when he was not on the field, their pressure weight
would have been the lowest in the league. You know,
like he's a superstar. I mean, he's a Watt level
deserved defensive Player of the Year. And even if he's
(05:48):
signing a contract this as we're recording this, Yeah he'll play,
but he's not going to play eighty percent of snaps
or ninety percent of snaps. I mean, maybe he's only
a pass rush specialist if he's there at all. So
it's a great time to play.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
No, it's a huge break for the Steelers, and agreed
that they're not the same defense without Nick Bosa, but
there's still a lot of ams on that defense even
in his absence. I mean, you're gonna have to go
up against Derek Armstead, You're gonna have to go up
against our old buddy, Javon Hargrave, Clellon Farrell, kind of trying,
you know, to see if they his career after it
didn't work out well good Vegas. But exactly like I agree,
(06:23):
like I said, I agree that they're not as good
without Bosa, but they could probably survive a couple of
weeks without him.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
I think should the whole season.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
That's a different story. I mean, if they could get
to Week three and then he comes back, I think
they'll be a okay.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Yeah, I would think a better way of putting them,
maybe for me, would be there would be an average
to above average defense without him, a great with him.
And the guy that we have to mention too is
I think Fred Warner is the best linebacker in the league.
And even as a pairing, they have a great set
of active, do it all linebackers, so they don't go
(06:56):
to dime all that often. They don't rush three ever,
you know, they don't have to blitz a lot for pressure,
so they're really solid. I mean you kind of alluded
to this too. I think their corners are average. I
mean I think that's the weakness of the D. But
the front seven is really good, especially with Bosa of course,
and hard Grave was a big addition for him.
Speaker 1 (07:15):
And they only rush three defenders on just two point
seven percent of opposing backs issue, so they're coming after you.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
In San Francisco, for sure, they do.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
A new defensive coordinator. I don't expect major changes though.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
That's right, with their old defensive coordinator now manning the
helm in Houston, of course, getting a new bump up there. Yeah,
you'd mentioned Fred Warner before we get to him, because
I think he is all world status, maybe the best
inside linebacker in all of NFL. Like you mentioned the
rush defense, that's the thing that jumps out to me
the most for the Niners. I mean, you know how
(07:47):
to run the ball on offense, and they know how
to stop the run on defense. Just three point four
yards per rush attempt last year was tied for the
Titans as far as tops in the league was concerned,
and Titans were the only team that gave up less
rushing yards than the Niners did per game. Five point
nine percent of the rushing attempts last year against the
Niners gained ten plus yards, best in the NFL. They
(08:07):
also only allowed They also allowed the lowest percentage of
runs gaining at least twenty yards, and they didn't give
up a run over thirty yards all year long. Right,
You just don't hit home runs against them.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
And you know, the Steelers offense obviously is working on
creating explosives. I mean that's a huge theme for this
offseason because it was a real problem last year. Well,
doing it on the ground against these guys. Good luck,
you know.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Now, I know they played different positions, they different players,
But Fred Warner he's got a little Pala Malo in
him for me. Okay, there was a play last year
in the playoffs where it might have been the Seaton.
He's at the line of scrimmage. Yea, looks like he's
gonna rush. The passer, recognizes the play, high tails it
back into the secondary and he's there to break up
the pass on CD Lamb, an elite wide receiver in.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
The NFL, forty yards downfield.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
And again, like he's not the same position as Paula Malo.
It's unfair to put him in that box as is
such an all time great. But I saw that play
and it's just like that's what I used to see
forty three too for the Steelers. All the time, you
think he's rushing the passer and then you blink and
next thing you know, he's fifty yards downfield breaking up
the pass and he's running stride for stride with Ceedee.
Lambit's insane to watch.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
It is It really is, because he's an elite coverage linebacker,
an elite head for the game range like no few
others and kind of like the Paula Malu test. It's
if you put somebody in the stands that's never really
seen football or as new, they'd be like, who's that guy.
He's a little different than everybody else. And then there's
strong safety whofoon goes, you know, speaking to Paula Malu,
(09:36):
their buddies, they work out together. He shows up like
his hairs on fire too.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Yeah, that might be one of the best players on
this defense that no one knows about yet. And I
think you can apply that around the NFL too. He's
trending into the top tier as far as the safety
is concerned. And we mentioned their corners, you know, Tradevius
Ward from Kansas City to Sean Gibson from Chicago. They
went out of the organization to bring in other people
in secondary. A Fungal was a pick in the fifth
(10:02):
round in twenty twenty one, and he has and they
keep doing that too. I mean, I'm looking at Fred
Warner right now. He's a third round pick, fifth round
pick for Harfunga. I mean, they hit home runs late
in the draft and with the secondary maybe being that
weak link of the Niners defense, do you think Kufunga
is good enough to kind of keep that together enough
for them where that doesn't become their ultimate undoing.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Yes, but he's more strong than free you know, like
their third level, second levels awesome. Yeah, the second level
is phenomenal, maybe probably the best in the league. The
outside the numbers and deep middle, I think is where
they can be had if you can protect, of course,
and Bosa has a lot to do with that as well.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
We'll turning our attention to the Niners offense. I mean
there's a ton of talented names on the offense, you
know them all, Debo, Kittle, McCaffrey, even throw Ayuk into
that category. But I think the team's weakest link might
be on that side of the ball too, and we
mentioned it at the beginning. I just don't know if
brock Perty is very good at quarterback right now. I
know he seven to one last year, but I mean
Kyle Shanahan and the way that he runs the football,
(11:05):
I mean, he is a quarterback's best friend as far
as the coach is concerned. So I don't think it's
very odd that we've seen the Niners for his entire
tenure be super Bowl good and have that quarterback kind
of is he good enough to take you over the top,
But they keep getting to that mountaintop. Because of Shanahan's
offense and because of how quarterback friendly it is, it's
(11:25):
like hard to really tell what you got. And unfortunately
for Shanahan, I think the experiment has proven that it
can't all just be your system and an average to
slightly above average quarterback. You need to have that guy
in that next tier to really push you over the top.
And if Jimmy g wasn't that guy, I don't see
party beat.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
I agree with everything you said. I think it's the
most quarterback friendly offense in the league with the best
weapons in the league, including the Bengals, Okay, I mean
I think they're that good, and it's the same five
out there pretty much all the time. They all can
do so many things. They've led the league in yards
after the catch now for five straight years. I mean,
with so many different quarterbacks. That's Shanahan that's getting guys
(12:08):
that are great with the ball in their hands. Deebo
breaks tackles, and McCaffrey's as good as slot receivers in
the league, let alone. Running back Kittle does everything. So
I appreciate what Purdy did. I really do, but I
don't think he throws the football particularly well, and he's
coming off an arm injury and the mistakes he made
last year he was kind of fortunate not to pay for,
(12:31):
you know, I mean, he was kind of an overly
aggressive college player and he showed some of that, but
he didn't. It didn't bite him as much as it
will going forward if he plays that way. And to
your point, I know it didn't work out, but that's
why he gave up the farm for Trey Lance. Because
the jimmies and parties of the world aren't good enough
to get you over the top.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
This is going to be the guy, yeah, get you
out of the top. And now he's backing up back
and down right funny how that worked out for them.
But you talk about you know, Pardy and and you say, oh,
it's such a quarterback friendly offense, so what must be
very conservative then, right, they must not let him throw
the ball down the field. That wasn't the case. They
averaged eight yards per pass attempt last year. It was
the best in the NFL after the catch. But yes,
(13:12):
but I also think you see Ayuk run in with
no one near him within fifteen yards a lot against
this Niners defense. So yeah, party will push the ball
down the field. But I mean, is it really that
hard when you're making a twenty thirty yard pass and
there's not a defender within fifteen yards of the cat?
Speaker 2 (13:30):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (13:30):
I mean the scheme is just so unbelievable that you've
got guys running white like you'll see steelbody. You'll see
it on Sunday. No matter how great the Steelers defense plays,
there will be a play or two where ayuk debo,
yus check or wide open and you have no idea.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
How it happened. Yeap. He manipulates guys and puts linebackers
in conflict extremely well, and the opponents will always say, boy,
these two plays looked identical to me until one small
little wrinkle. You know two seconds into the play that
they just changed things up. He's phenomenal at it. He's
one of the best designers of offense and play callers
(14:08):
in the last twenty years or so. He's special that way,
and it makes him very very hard to play against.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
And you can expect them to run the ball a
lot too. They run it early as well. One of
the league leaders last year and running the ball on
first down. And Tomlin mentioned in his press conference that
he did earlier today on Tuesday Matt about the addition
of Christian McCaffrey and just how the offense, all the
weapons elsewhere Deebo and Ayu can Kittle really does run
through McCaffrey. And I think he mentioned something like the
(14:35):
points per game it's up by almost like ten since
he's been Well.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
The only game McCaffrey's lost in a Niner uniform was
that one when they didn't have a quarterback a chief right, Oh,
that was before McCaffrey showed. Their winning streak started when
he got there, not coincidentally.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
So it's amazing to see the points per game up
tick from McCaffrey, the winning nature of the team from McCaffrey.
I mean, I think you kind of got reminded that
when this dude's healthy, especially, he's maybe the best back
in the NFL. Yeah, because he does so much more
than a Henry does intense exactly.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
You nailed it, Like there's that theory out there running
backs don't matter, don't pay a running back. Well, he's
probably the best offensive weapon in the whole league.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
That's the guy I would point to if I was
an agent and say, you want to get paid as
a running back, you have to play like that. He's
throwing passes sometimes he does.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
Everything super smart. He can play every return if they.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Need a big play like it's there's no limit to
what he can do.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
So they don't go deep into their bench. In terms
of skill guys, I mean, you're gonna see Ayuk, Debo, Kittle, McCaffrey,
and us Check who if people aren't familiar with you, Check,
he's very important to them, like Condor Hayward is a
use Check want to be you know, can could develop
into that type of player, But sometimes they will pull
you Check out and they'll put Mitchell in, who's just
(15:47):
an old school running back zone runner, and then McCaffrey
becomes your slot receiver. You know, like, there's no great answer.
So do I play bass against that? Do I play nickel?
Do I play dime? There's no great answer because they
can pound you the rock if you're going to be
on a light front, or they can certainly exploit linebackers
with Kittle, McCaffrey, even use Check. I mean, they're really
(16:07):
hard to play against because those skill.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Guys Now, how's the offensive line look in your estimation?
Because I had someone was on the Mark Maddin Show.
I can't remember the name right now. I'm blanking a
national person and he said, you know he likes the Niners.
But I think I look at that offensive line and
it's Trent Williams, all pro superhero, potential Hall of Famer,
and it's just kind of a bunch of dudes, like
it's just no one special there. So could that be
(16:29):
their undoing this year? As well? They protected party pretty
well last year except for when it counted the most.
And how about that too, that little arrogance I think
from Shanahan and the Niners offense to put the backup
third string tight ends on Hassan Redick, the league leader
in sacks last year. You think he maybe learned a
little something about that and TJ. Watt won't see that
same favorable matchup come Sunday.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Well, here's their O line. You nailed it. Trent Williams
is the best offensive lineman on the Planet's still he's
up in age. That doesn't matter. With all respect to
high Smith, who's a great player, He's got a long
day ahead of him against Trent Williams on that side, right,
But the other four verse, what Hayward whomever, is probably
(17:10):
the Steelers' best advantage in this whole game to me.
And they do like to get four and five receivers out.
They don't like the max protect but they're gonna have to.
I mean, those four dudes are okay, they're not home,
no one even knows their names. Probably around here they're fine,
but it's a below average force them.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
And so you think the talk with Highsmith this week
might be, Dude, this might be a rough game for you.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
It's gonna be rough game for but if you.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
Do your job and occupy Trent Williams, I think you'll
free up all of your teammates to just dominate that
line of scrimmage. So I think rushing the passers in
their blood. So it's nothing. You know, we're not rewriting
the formula here, but I think that's a big way
that they win. And I know, I know you mentioned
that McCaffrey is just so dynamic that it goes beyond
just stopping the run to try to stop him. But
(17:57):
if you can really make them a one dimensional team,
if you can stop McCaffrey's damage, on the ground and
maybe limit him to only hurting you through the air.
You're making Party beat you, You're letting your pass Russ
get home. I think that's the formula to beat this offense.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
I do too. And his advanced stats when when pressured
aren't as good Party. I mean, no one's are, but
his are dramatically different clean pocket versus you know, under pressure.
And I really want I want him throwing down the field,
which means he's holding football a little bit longer and
outside the numbers and making arm strength throws. So to me,
(18:33):
Minka is critical in this game. I don't think you're
just gonna see him in the deep middle just playing
center field. I think he's going to be lurking in
the middle of the field. Maybe he's down in the
box or it's slot, or even playing man coverage on
McCaffrey or Kiddle. You're like, I think he's gonna be.
They may have the middle of the field open more
saying Brock, we want you to hold the ball, make
(18:54):
arm strength throws down the field, and if you get
us on one, fine, but we think we'll get home
three or four extra times and hit you know, hit
hit in the process.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
A lot Before we wrap up, we always like to
highlight some key matchups that you've noted for this game.
The first one forty nine Ers running back Christian McCaffrey,
who we've talked about a lot against the Steelers inside linebackers.
Three new faces for those inside linebacking unit, Kawan Alexander,
Alandon Robertson Cole Holcombe. Now in the fold you'll see
all three of them. Yeah, on the depth chart. That's
(19:24):
like an or. It's like Alandon Robins or Kwan Alexander.
So all three are considered starters by the Steelers, and
all three are gonna have their hands full with McCaffrey
for sure. But I mean you're gonna have Ayuk matched
up on you every once in a while. He's gost
Debo Kittle. So I'd say, yes, you're right on McAffrey
versus the inside linebackers. But in general, just inside linebackers
have a long day ahead of them.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
That's just where they feast. I mean, they feast in
the middle of the field. That's a Shanahan thing. That's
why he wants Debo, That's why he wanted McCaffrey. So
I thought inside linebackers a real weakness last year. They
got a whole new group. Obviously they agreed with me
to some degree, and they will be This will be
their stiffest test of the year.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
And Steelers passing game versus forty nine Ers linebacker Fred Warner,
who he mentioned as an all pro kind of player,
unbelievable in coverage. You know, I remember everybody calls on
the play in the Bills game Picket to Friarmouth where
he just completely zips the ball by Matt Mulano. And
Matt Malona is a great leader, but he's not as
(20:24):
good as Fred Warner. So this is an unbelievable You've
seen Picket make the throws in the middle of the
field during the preseason. Now do it against the best
of the side linebacker, especially coverage wise, that the NFL has.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
To offer is And the name we didn't mention is
green Law. Who's next to himy gen Law. Yeah, he's
one of the most underrated and he's always going to
be in Warner's shadow. People are starting to catch on
that Warner is an elite, elite player, but green Law
is no slouch either. They don't go to Nickel or
dime hardly at all because their linebackers are so good
in coverage.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Steelers and Niners this Sunday at Akershuer Stadium. Kickoff is
at one pm. The pregame starts at eleven on DVE.
Matt and I will be back again the next week
to give you the scout on the Cleveland Browns. But
until then, for Matt Williamson on tom OPROMN and this
has been the advanced Scout
We got some work to do. This is the Advanced
Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson. Third year of
the Advanced Scout. Matt, I can't believe they brought us back. Well,
I believe they brought you back. I can't believe they
let a shlub like me come along again for a
third year. I thought I was on the chopping block.
But here we are again. If you're new to the
Advanced Scout podcast, tell you a little something about what
(00:22):
we do here. Matt and I take a look at
the Steelers' opponent of the upcoming week. You know, really
a behind the enemy lines kind of thing where we
focus on the Niners. Some Steelers takes might trickle in
there every once in a while, but it's a Niners
focused podcast. It's a focus on the team that's coming
up this week, which would be the Niners on Sunday. Matt,
Before we get into that, just a little thirty thousand
(00:43):
view of this matchup. Sant Franz finished the season at
thirteen and four, and once upon a time last year.
It might surprise people to remember Sanfrey was three and
four at one point this season, had a losing record,
quarterback and then ripped off ten straight wins, brought Perty emerged.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
And they crady for McCaffrey.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
They had the league's highest scoring differential plus one seventy three.
I mean, they were arguably one of the better teams,
if not maybe the second best team behind the Chiefs,
third best team behind the Eagles, two in the entire
NFL last year. And the Steelers, on the other hand,
slow start to the season like the Niners, finished hot
down the stretch to the Niners extent, but ended up
(01:22):
with a nine to eight record, of course, and their
point differential were outscored by their opponents. It was minus
thirty eight on the season. But the good news is
they were seven to two and then on the stretch
and they had a plus thirty nine point differential. Another
thing that was pretty interesting last year was the Niners
won a league high eleven games by more than one
score and only one team had a lead on the
Niners at halftime. That crazy in twenty twenty two, yeah, insane, I.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Mean even though they had four losses.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
I mean still, I was reading some of these stats
and it was like, I'd have to do a lot
more research into this, but this really could be maybe
one of the better teams that did not win a
Super Bowl. It didn't even make it too y.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Question and think about their winning streak going deep into
the playoffs, how it ended they didn't have any quarterbacks.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
No quarterback.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
I think they're on the road in Philly, and that
doesn't mean they'd have won with party, but they ran
out of quarterbacks, or maybe they'd still have a winning street.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Quick series history before we dive into the nitty gritty
of the Niners. The Steelers have been to the Super
Bowl eight times, winning six of them. Of course, San
Francisco has been to seven Super Bowls and they have
won five championships. Yet those two winning organizations have yet
to meet in that final game. It's kind of like
the greatest rivalry that never happened in the NFL, Like
they're always kind of running parallel to each other, just
never had that intersection. But Pittsburgh and the Niners have
(02:31):
met twenty two times in the regular season going back
to nineteen fifty one. The Niners have won a dozen
of those matchups. The Steelers only won two of the
first seven games played between the two franchises between nineteen
seventy three and nineteen eighty seven, Pittsburgh lost just one
of the six meetings. They didn't lose often in that
era here in Pittsburgh. Neither team has been able to
put a winning street together in this series over the
past seven games, with San Francisco winning the most recent
(02:53):
one back in twenty nineteen. So maybe that bodes well
for the Steelers. Looks like it's coming back in the
other direction. The Steelers will win this one. They keep alternating.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Yeah, I say, it doesn't seem like there's real streaks involved.
There's not a lot of real classic games, even though
these are two of the best and storied in winning
his franchises of our lifetimes, you know, best of mine.
I'm going back to the seventies. Maybe there's Super Bowls coming.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Up ticket and every other year quarterback. You know, that's
funny you just said that. This is coming off the
top of my head here. But I wonder if Pickett,
you know, I don't know if he's this kind of guy,
m but I wonder if he's sitting there going you know,
I was the first pick quarterback, and this is the
last last year. This guy's the last pick, and he
gets all the headlines and he gets all the buzz.
I wonder if there's a little extra chip on his
(03:37):
shoulder here, Like week one, he's coming into my dojo.
Let me show the world that I was the number
twenty overall pick not three hundred whatever.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
How could you not? And frankly, I get asked this
a lot, who dry that party? Your picket? I'm like, picket, picket.
It's it's really not that close, you know. And Party
did really really good things last year. He absolutely did.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Yeah, we'll get to party in the Niners offense in
just a little bit. Wanted to start on the defensive
side of the football though, because I I think that's
arguably one of the best defenses in the NFL. It
statistically was last year. They were first and yards allowed
per game. They were second in rushing yards allowed per game,
they were first in points allowed per game. I mean,
everywhere you look with the Niners defense, except for maybe
(04:15):
the past defense, it was elite status. And you know,
I mentioned fewest yards per game than any other defense
last year. One thing that's really jumped out for me
last year the defense forced a three and out situation
on forty PM, just half the time that you're out
on the field. You have three plays and you're done
against the forty nine ers. So I know we're not
(04:37):
going to bury the lead here. And a big part
of that defensive success last year was Nick Bosa. Eighteen
and a half sacks led the team. Asan Reddick, the
only player in the NFL that had more than Bosa
last year is the reigning defensive player of the year.
We take this on Tuesday. It doesn't look like he's
going to be there available for the Niners. Doesn't seem
like a deal is imminent, and even if it is,
(04:58):
I mean, I can hardly expect him to be Nick
Bosa when he steps on the field on see. Yeah,
after missing all this time.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
So a couple things about how he's as important as TJ. Watt.
I mean, I think everyone's familiar or at least has
some clue about the Steelers defense with Watt versus not.
I mean, all the stats, any stat you look at
is drastically worse without And so they've played fifteen games
since he's been drafted. Without him, they're five and ten
in those games. Yeah, very watte ish. And another stat
(05:28):
I dug up just this morning was even last year,
the pass rush snaps when he was either sideline or
when he was not on the field, their pressure weight
would have been the lowest in the league. You know,
like he's a superstar. I mean, he's a Watt level
deserved defensive Player of the Year. And even if he's
(05:48):
signing a contract this as we're recording this, Yeah he'll play,
but he's not going to play eighty percent of snaps
or ninety percent of snaps. I mean, maybe he's only
a pass rush specialist if he's there at all. So
it's a great time to play.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
No, it's a huge break for the Steelers, and agreed
that they're not the same defense without Nick Bosa, but
there's still a lot of ams on that defense even
in his absence. I mean, you're gonna have to go
up against Derek Armstead, You're gonna have to go up
against our old buddy, Javon Hargrave, Clellon Farrell, kind of trying,
you know, to see if they his career after it
didn't work out well good Vegas. But exactly like I agree,
(06:23):
like I said, I agree that they're not as good
without Bosa, but they could probably survive a couple of
weeks without him.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
I think should the whole season.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
That's a different story. I mean, if they could get
to Week three and then he comes back, I think
they'll be a okay.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Yeah, I would think a better way of putting them,
maybe for me, would be there would be an average
to above average defense without him, a great with him.
And the guy that we have to mention too is
I think Fred Warner is the best linebacker in the league.
And even as a pairing, they have a great set
of active, do it all linebackers, so they don't go
(06:56):
to dime all that often. They don't rush three ever,
you know, they don't have to blitz a lot for pressure,
so they're really solid. I mean you kind of alluded
to this too. I think their corners are average. I
mean I think that's the weakness of the D. But
the front seven is really good, especially with Bosa of course,
and hard Grave was a big addition for him.
Speaker 1 (07:15):
And they only rush three defenders on just two point
seven percent of opposing backs issue, so they're coming after you.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
In San Francisco, for sure, they do.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
A new defensive coordinator. I don't expect major changes though.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
That's right, with their old defensive coordinator now manning the
helm in Houston, of course, getting a new bump up there. Yeah,
you'd mentioned Fred Warner before we get to him, because
I think he is all world status, maybe the best
inside linebacker in all of NFL. Like you mentioned the
rush defense, that's the thing that jumps out to me
the most for the Niners. I mean, you know how
(07:47):
to run the ball on offense, and they know how
to stop the run on defense. Just three point four
yards per rush attempt last year was tied for the
Titans as far as tops in the league was concerned,
and Titans were the only team that gave up less
rushing yards than the Niners did per game. Five point
nine percent of the rushing attempts last year against the
Niners gained ten plus yards, best in the NFL. They
(08:07):
also only allowed They also allowed the lowest percentage of
runs gaining at least twenty yards, and they didn't give
up a run over thirty yards all year long. Right,
You just don't hit home runs against them.
Speaker 2 (08:16):
And you know, the Steelers offense obviously is working on
creating explosives. I mean that's a huge theme for this
offseason because it was a real problem last year. Well,
doing it on the ground against these guys. Good luck,
you know.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Now, I know they played different positions, they different players,
But Fred Warner he's got a little Pala Malo in
him for me. Okay, there was a play last year
in the playoffs where it might have been the Seaton.
He's at the line of scrimmage. Yea, looks like he's
gonna rush. The passer, recognizes the play, high tails it
back into the secondary and he's there to break up
the pass on CD Lamb, an elite wide receiver in.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
The NFL, forty yards downfield.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
And again, like he's not the same position as Paula Malo.
It's unfair to put him in that box as is
such an all time great. But I saw that play
and it's just like that's what I used to see
forty three too for the Steelers. All the time, you
think he's rushing the passer and then you blink and
next thing you know, he's fifty yards downfield breaking up
the pass and he's running stride for stride with Ceedee.
Lambit's insane to watch.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
It is It really is, because he's an elite coverage linebacker,
an elite head for the game range like no few
others and kind of like the Paula Malu test. It's
if you put somebody in the stands that's never really
seen football or as new, they'd be like, who's that guy.
He's a little different than everybody else. And then there's
strong safety whofoon goes, you know, speaking to Paula Malu,
(09:36):
their buddies, they work out together. He shows up like
his hairs on fire too.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Yeah, that might be one of the best players on
this defense that no one knows about yet. And I
think you can apply that around the NFL too. He's
trending into the top tier as far as the safety
is concerned. And we mentioned their corners, you know, Tradevius
Ward from Kansas City to Sean Gibson from Chicago. They
went out of the organization to bring in other people
in secondary. A Fungal was a pick in the fifth
(10:02):
round in twenty twenty one, and he has and they
keep doing that too. I mean, I'm looking at Fred
Warner right now. He's a third round pick, fifth round
pick for Harfunga. I mean, they hit home runs late
in the draft and with the secondary maybe being that
weak link of the Niners defense, do you think Kufunga
is good enough to kind of keep that together enough
for them where that doesn't become their ultimate undoing.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Yes, but he's more strong than free you know, like
their third level, second levels awesome. Yeah, the second level
is phenomenal, maybe probably the best in the league. The
outside the numbers and deep middle, I think is where
they can be had if you can protect, of course,
and Bosa has a lot to do with that as well.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
We'll turning our attention to the Niners offense. I mean
there's a ton of talented names on the offense, you
know them all, Debo, Kittle, McCaffrey, even throw Ayuk into
that category. But I think the team's weakest link might
be on that side of the ball too, and we
mentioned it at the beginning. I just don't know if
brock Perty is very good at quarterback right now. I
know he seven to one last year, but I mean
Kyle Shanahan and the way that he runs the football,
(11:05):
I mean, he is a quarterback's best friend as far
as the coach is concerned. So I don't think it's
very odd that we've seen the Niners for his entire
tenure be super Bowl good and have that quarterback kind
of is he good enough to take you over the top,
But they keep getting to that mountaintop. Because of Shanahan's
offense and because of how quarterback friendly it is, it's
(11:25):
like hard to really tell what you got. And unfortunately
for Shanahan, I think the experiment has proven that it
can't all just be your system and an average to
slightly above average quarterback. You need to have that guy
in that next tier to really push you over the top.
And if Jimmy g wasn't that guy, I don't see
party beat.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
I agree with everything you said. I think it's the
most quarterback friendly offense in the league with the best
weapons in the league, including the Bengals, Okay, I mean
I think they're that good, and it's the same five
out there pretty much all the time. They all can
do so many things. They've led the league in yards
after the catch now for five straight years. I mean,
with so many different quarterbacks. That's Shanahan that's getting guys
(12:08):
that are great with the ball in their hands. Deebo
breaks tackles, and McCaffrey's as good as slot receivers in
the league, let alone. Running back Kittle does everything. So
I appreciate what Purdy did. I really do, but I
don't think he throws the football particularly well, and he's
coming off an arm injury and the mistakes he made
last year he was kind of fortunate not to pay for,
(12:31):
you know, I mean, he was kind of an overly
aggressive college player and he showed some of that, but
he didn't. It didn't bite him as much as it
will going forward if he plays that way. And to
your point, I know it didn't work out, but that's
why he gave up the farm for Trey Lance. Because
the jimmies and parties of the world aren't good enough
to get you over the top.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
This is going to be the guy, yeah, get you
out of the top. And now he's backing up back
and down right funny how that worked out for them.
But you talk about you know, Pardy and and you say, oh,
it's such a quarterback friendly offense, so what must be
very conservative then, right, they must not let him throw
the ball down the field. That wasn't the case. They
averaged eight yards per pass attempt last year. It was
the best in the NFL after the catch. But yes,
(13:12):
but I also think you see Ayuk run in with
no one near him within fifteen yards a lot against
this Niners defense. So yeah, party will push the ball
down the field. But I mean, is it really that
hard when you're making a twenty thirty yard pass and
there's not a defender within fifteen yards of the cat?
Speaker 2 (13:30):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (13:30):
I mean the scheme is just so unbelievable that you've
got guys running white like you'll see steelbody. You'll see
it on Sunday. No matter how great the Steelers defense plays,
there will be a play or two where ayuk debo,
yus check or wide open and you have no idea.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
How it happened. Yeap. He manipulates guys and puts linebackers
in conflict extremely well, and the opponents will always say, boy,
these two plays looked identical to me until one small
little wrinkle. You know two seconds into the play that
they just changed things up. He's phenomenal at it. He's
one of the best designers of offense and play callers
(14:08):
in the last twenty years or so. He's special that way,
and it makes him very very hard to play against.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
And you can expect them to run the ball a
lot too. They run it early as well. One of
the league leaders last year and running the ball on
first down. And Tomlin mentioned in his press conference that
he did earlier today on Tuesday Matt about the addition
of Christian McCaffrey and just how the offense, all the
weapons elsewhere Deebo and Ayu can Kittle really does run
through McCaffrey. And I think he mentioned something like the
(14:35):
points per game it's up by almost like ten since
he's been Well.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
The only game McCaffrey's lost in a Niner uniform was
that one when they didn't have a quarterback a chief right, Oh,
that was before McCaffrey showed. Their winning streak started when
he got there, not coincidentally.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
So it's amazing to see the points per game up
tick from McCaffrey, the winning nature of the team from McCaffrey.
I mean, I think you kind of got reminded that
when this dude's healthy, especially, he's maybe the best back
in the NFL. Yeah, because he does so much more
than a Henry does intense exactly.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
You nailed it, Like there's that theory out there running
backs don't matter, don't pay a running back. Well, he's
probably the best offensive weapon in the whole league.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
That's the guy I would point to if I was
an agent and say, you want to get paid as
a running back, you have to play like that. He's
throwing passes sometimes he does.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
Everything super smart. He can play every return if they.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Need a big play like it's there's no limit to
what he can do.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
So they don't go deep into their bench. In terms
of skill guys, I mean, you're gonna see Ayuk, Debo, Kittle, McCaffrey,
and us Check who if people aren't familiar with you, Check,
he's very important to them, like Condor Hayward is a
use Check want to be you know, can could develop
into that type of player, But sometimes they will pull
you Check out and they'll put Mitchell in, who's just
(15:47):
an old school running back zone runner, and then McCaffrey
becomes your slot receiver. You know, like, there's no great answer.
So do I play bass against that? Do I play nickel?
Do I play dime? There's no great answer because they
can pound you the rock if you're going to be
on a light front, or they can certainly exploit linebackers
with Kittle, McCaffrey, even use Check. I mean, they're really
(16:07):
hard to play against because those skill.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Guys Now, how's the offensive line look in your estimation?
Because I had someone was on the Mark Maddin Show.
I can't remember the name right now. I'm blanking a
national person and he said, you know he likes the Niners.
But I think I look at that offensive line and
it's Trent Williams, all pro superhero, potential Hall of Famer,
and it's just kind of a bunch of dudes, like
it's just no one special there. So could that be
(16:29):
their undoing this year? As well? They protected party pretty
well last year except for when it counted the most.
And how about that too, that little arrogance I think
from Shanahan and the Niners offense to put the backup
third string tight ends on Hassan Redick, the league leader
in sacks last year. You think he maybe learned a
little something about that and TJ. Watt won't see that
same favorable matchup come Sunday.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Well, here's their O line. You nailed it. Trent Williams
is the best offensive lineman on the Planet's still he's
up in age. That doesn't matter. With all respect to
high Smith, who's a great player, He's got a long
day ahead of him against Trent Williams on that side, right,
But the other four verse, what Hayward whomever, is probably
(17:10):
the Steelers' best advantage in this whole game to me.
And they do like to get four and five receivers out.
They don't like the max protect but they're gonna have to.
I mean, those four dudes are okay, they're not home,
no one even knows their names. Probably around here they're fine,
but it's a below average force them.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
And so you think the talk with Highsmith this week
might be, Dude, this might be a rough game for you.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
It's gonna be rough game for but if you.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
Do your job and occupy Trent Williams, I think you'll
free up all of your teammates to just dominate that
line of scrimmage. So I think rushing the passers in
their blood. So it's nothing. You know, we're not rewriting
the formula here, but I think that's a big way
that they win. And I know, I know you mentioned
that McCaffrey is just so dynamic that it goes beyond
just stopping the run to try to stop him. But
(17:57):
if you can really make them a one dimensional team,
if you can stop McCaffrey's damage, on the ground and
maybe limit him to only hurting you through the air.
You're making Party beat you, You're letting your pass Russ
get home. I think that's the formula to beat this offense.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
I do too. And his advanced stats when when pressured
aren't as good Party. I mean, no one's are, but
his are dramatically different clean pocket versus you know, under pressure.
And I really want I want him throwing down the field,
which means he's holding football a little bit longer and
outside the numbers and making arm strength throws. So to me,
(18:33):
Minka is critical in this game. I don't think you're
just gonna see him in the deep middle just playing
center field. I think he's going to be lurking in
the middle of the field. Maybe he's down in the
box or it's slot, or even playing man coverage on
McCaffrey or Kiddle. You're like, I think he's gonna be.
They may have the middle of the field open more
saying Brock, we want you to hold the ball, make
(18:54):
arm strength throws down the field, and if you get
us on one, fine, but we think we'll get home
three or four extra times and hit you know, hit
hit in the process.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
A lot Before we wrap up, we always like to
highlight some key matchups that you've noted for this game.
The first one forty nine Ers running back Christian McCaffrey,
who we've talked about a lot against the Steelers inside linebackers.
Three new faces for those inside linebacking unit, Kawan Alexander,
Alandon Robertson Cole Holcombe. Now in the fold you'll see
all three of them. Yeah, on the depth chart. That's
(19:24):
like an or. It's like Alandon Robins or Kwan Alexander.
So all three are considered starters by the Steelers, and
all three are gonna have their hands full with McCaffrey
for sure. But I mean you're gonna have Ayuk matched
up on you every once in a while. He's gost
Debo Kittle. So I'd say, yes, you're right on McAffrey
versus the inside linebackers. But in general, just inside linebackers
have a long day ahead of them.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
That's just where they feast. I mean, they feast in
the middle of the field. That's a Shanahan thing. That's
why he wants Debo, That's why he wanted McCaffrey. So
I thought inside linebackers a real weakness last year. They
got a whole new group. Obviously they agreed with me
to some degree, and they will be This will be
their stiffest test of the year.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
And Steelers passing game versus forty nine Ers linebacker Fred Warner,
who he mentioned as an all pro kind of player,
unbelievable in coverage. You know, I remember everybody calls on
the play in the Bills game Picket to Friarmouth where
he just completely zips the ball by Matt Mulano. And
Matt Malona is a great leader, but he's not as
(20:24):
good as Fred Warner. So this is an unbelievable You've
seen Picket make the throws in the middle of the
field during the preseason. Now do it against the best
of the side linebacker, especially coverage wise, that the NFL has.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
To offer is And the name we didn't mention is
green Law. Who's next to himy gen Law. Yeah, he's
one of the most underrated and he's always going to
be in Warner's shadow. People are starting to catch on
that Warner is an elite, elite player, but green Law
is no slouch either. They don't go to Nickel or
dime hardly at all because their linebackers are so good
in coverage.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Steelers and Niners this Sunday at Akershuer Stadium. Kickoff is
at one pm. The pregame starts at eleven on DVE.
Matt and I will be back again the next week
to give you the scout on the Cleveland Browns. But
until then, for Matt Williamson on tom OPROMN and this
has been the advanced Scout
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