Week 15 @ Colts

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opferman.

Speaker 3 (00:05):
And Mac Williamson Dealers and Colts Saturday in Indianapolis. Both
teams have a seven and six record right now. The
Steelers are the sixth seed. The Colts would be the
seventh seed if the season were to end today. Viewers
on a two game losing streak and have been outscored
by forty points this season.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
They are three and two on the road, Colts are
just two and four.

Speaker 3 (00:24):
Though in Indianapolis, the Colts have won four of their
last five games, They've been outscored by sixteen points in
twenty twenty three. Over those past five games, Indianapolis only
outscored their opponents by eight points.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
But all that matter as mad as they've won the game.

Speaker 3 (00:37):
So the Colts are turning on and the Steelers are
going through their worst stretch of the season so far,
the only time they suffered back to back losses so
far this yeon.

Speaker 4 (00:44):
It's clearly the Steelers worst stretch of the season and
worst stretch in a while.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
Really, I mean they considering them.

Speaker 4 (00:50):
The nature of those two losses, the optimist would look
at it and say, okay, well, time to look yourself
in the mirror and be a tough minded football team
and have not nine days to prepare for this and
get healthy and go take you know, business in your
own hands, and you open the thing. But the show
by saying, you know, they're the fifth seed right now,
so they do have some control six I'm sorry, Yeah,

(01:11):
in the Cults are seven, so they do have some
control here. But considering the nature of the AFC, I
wonder if this is a loser leave time match, you
know last year, would really be damaging for either.

Speaker 3 (01:23):
Team, especially because per EEPA, including this game, Colts have
an easier schedule. Only three teams have an easier schedule
than the Colts the rest of the way.

Speaker 1 (01:33):
At the season. It's more important to Steelers one hundred percent.

Speaker 3 (01:35):
You got to take care of business against Indianapolis because
there's no guarantee that the other three teams that Indy
has on their schedule are going to.

Speaker 1 (01:40):
Do that for you. Sure, I agree with you.

Speaker 3 (01:43):
This does kind of le towards a loser leave town
type of match. But like you said, you're the sixth seed.
There's from six to eleven. Everybody's seven and six in
the AFC, you've got the upper hand on all of
those teams right now, which unbelievably after what you just
went through.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
But take advantage of it.

Speaker 4 (01:57):
Absolutely, And maybe it's not a loser leave town match
for the Colts. You know, we're not doing this through
the Colts eyes, but they could weather it better than
the Steelers, who you know, still have Baltimore and have
to travel Seattle, et cetera, and not the harp on it.
But just think of what great position you'd be in
if you got one of those two wins. I mean
to either one, especially New England, but I mean.

Speaker 3 (02:17):
Think enough said, I've been thinking about getting into DeLorean
a lot, especially after what happened last or on Sunday.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
Absolutely well, just.

Speaker 3 (02:25):
Everything fell in your lap injury for your own games exactly.

Speaker 4 (02:28):
He just went one of those two moonwalk into the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (02:32):
Quick series history on the Colts before we get into
this matchup. Beginning in nineteen fifty, these two franchises have
met thirty three times, but only two of those games
took place before nineteen sixty eight. Colts and Steelers split
their first four meetings, but the Steelers are twenty five
and four about that since and Overall, Pittsburgh leads the
series twenty seven to six. Overall, twelve of the games
have been the Steelers against the Baltimore Colts. Of course,

(02:53):
the Colts won just three of those dozen matchups. The
Colts have won just two games against Pittsburgh in the
two thousands, zero in the nineteen nineties, one in the eighties,
and two in the seventies. Steelers are currently on an
eight game winning streak against Indianapolis that have won five
in a row in Indy. The Colts and Steelers have
met five times in the postseason. Guess what Pittsburgh is five?

(03:14):
And oh, yow, you know that's I never really thought
of it, but this might be the steam Steelers owns
the most.

Speaker 4 (03:20):
Yeah, I had never thought of it either, So I'm like, boy,
that's true, that's true. Wow, Like zero wins in the
nineties or whatever that I mean, whatever those numbers were
breaking down by decade is unbelievable.

Speaker 2 (03:31):
I'm trying to think the two games in the two thousands.

Speaker 3 (03:33):
Is born in ninety four, so I obviously didn't see
any wins in my early early day, my first six
years on earth. But in the two thousands, I can't
really peg the second one. I know they got beat
by Peyton Manning in two thousand and five, but then
they went back to Indianapolis that year and got revenge
on Peyton Manner and those Colts. But other than that,
man I on that second one, yeah, exactly, there's Andrew

(03:54):
luck sprinkled in there your lifetime, like, yeah.

Speaker 4 (03:56):
I mean, you're Peyton Manning Andrew Luckiers and they've been crushed.

Speaker 3 (04:00):
One of my favorite memories, of course, from this series, though,
is the Antonio Brown jumping on the goalpost celebration.

Speaker 2 (04:05):
Okay, turn, who could forget that?

Speaker 1 (04:07):
I mean the Ben tackles the one that comes to
mind immediately, of course.

Speaker 3 (04:11):
Come on, jump, people make shoe string tackles to go
to the Super Bowl all the time. Jumping on a
goalpost to celebrate that's never been done before. All right,
let's talk about the Colts offense to get things started, Matt.
They're fourteenth in yards per game at three thirty seven,
they're seventeenth against the their seventeenth passing to twenty six
per game, sixteenth, rushing the ball at one hundred and
ten per game, eighth and scoring.

Speaker 2 (04:30):
Though, somehow, after all of.

Speaker 3 (04:31):
Those stats, I just gave you very middle of the
pack on yardage. They get the ball in the end
zone twenty four point two points per game twenty giveaways
is twelfth most in the league, and they allow two
point three sacks per game, which is eleventh best. The
average five point two yards per play for the season,
and that's the same number of their past three games.
An interesting stat that you noted here, Matt is their

(04:52):
usage of eleven personnel seventy nine point three percent of
their snaps, third highest in the league, and the Steelers
it's not really used to facing eleven per personnel. This year,
just fifty three point eight percent of their snaps have
come against eleven personnel and only two defenses co a
lower percentage than that. So this is gonna be a
little bit of a different feel for the Steelers against Indy.

Speaker 1 (05:11):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah, and they're a little bit of a lot of
offense in that if people probably remember they picked fourth
in the draft, took Richardson. This was gonna be a
rebuild year, new offensive minded head coach comes over from Philly,
and their O line was really bad last year, but
it looks much much better now. Playing a lot of
eleven downs. Is their slot guy pierces their deep ball

(05:33):
outside the numbers, dude, and Pittman gets.

Speaker 1 (05:36):
Like every target.

Speaker 4 (05:37):
I mean, he gets targeted like crazy. I'm sure he'll
see Porter in this game. They want Jonathan Taylor to
be the guy. He's probably not gonna play running games.

Speaker 1 (05:45):
They dried up. Yeah, running Zach kind of slowed down.

Speaker 4 (05:49):
Yeah, he's getting banged up and you know, this is
a bigger workload than he's used to and they, Yeah,
it looked great.

Speaker 1 (05:55):
I like him.

Speaker 4 (05:56):
I think he's he's certainly in a cold spell right
now and maybe that's, you know, just the riggers of
the season.

Speaker 3 (06:03):
I know this doesn't really matter for this matchup. We'll
get to the guy under center, Gardner Minshew in a second.
But what were your thoughts on Anthony Richardson in the
small sample size that you saw. You think that's something
that the Colts can be excited for in the future
or is still TBD.

Speaker 4 (06:14):
Very I mean, he's a work in progress. His completion
percentage was low. We knew those things coming in, but
we've seen a lot of quarterbacks like Josh Allen, you know,
Jordan Love that started out very inaccurate, and it used
to be something he'd never changed, but he has shown
a lot of signs.

Speaker 1 (06:31):
He looks like he's belonged.

Speaker 4 (06:33):
He can't finish games, I mean, he got knocked out
of like every game, you know, so hopefully durability doesn't
sidetrack him.

Speaker 1 (06:39):
But this is a pretty promising team going forward.

Speaker 2 (06:41):
Yeah, no doubt.

Speaker 3 (06:42):
I mean, Minshew steps in and there's still seven and
six disappointing loss. I think last week a though, they
had to go to Sincia and Jake Browning's playing better
than anybody could have ever dreamed of it. So it's
not like, I know, they got blown out, but still
it could be a lot worse than listening to the
six and sixteen. Now seven and sixteen to Cincinnati.

Speaker 4 (06:57):
I kind of feel like the Colts are playing with
house money. Yeah, I've been saying all week, like expectations.

Speaker 3 (07:02):
I kind of thought they would drop that game to
the Titans the week before. Yeah, maybe that's just you know,
the scales of the NFL balancing themselves having them dropped
the game against Cincinnati. WO. But Minshew steps in for
Anthony Richardson. After the four games that he started, he's
attempted at least thirty nine passes in three straight games,
Matt and he's done that in six games total this year.
So it ain't exactly like they're asking Minshew to go
in and be the game manager here.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
No, they're not.

Speaker 3 (07:24):
Eye popping. Only has eleven touchdowns. He does turn the
ball over a decent amount. He's got like eight nine interceptions.
It's up well over two thousand yards total in the season,
So I mean he's pushing them all.

Speaker 1 (07:35):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (07:35):
I've always compared him to Ryan Fitzpatrick, like, I think
that's the career he's going to have. He'll play for
eight different teams, be a spot starter guys, you know,
come off the bench, we come into the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (07:47):
Yeah, this is a year where he does that with
the Colts.

Speaker 4 (07:49):
Have some game he throws for four hundred yards and
just you know, everything's clicking, and then one game where
he throws six interceptions. You know, he's kind of a
wild stallion that has nothing to lose.

Speaker 2 (08:00):
Well, his favorite target is Michael Pittman.

Speaker 3 (08:02):
As you mentioned, he averages nine point eight targets per
game this season. He's gotten eleven or more in four
straight games, and over this four game stretch, Pittman has
thirty seven catches in three hundred and ninety one receiving yards.
He now is eight or more catches in six straight
games and ten of thirteen games this season. Michael Pittman Junr.
I'd like to introduce you to Joey Porter Junior. Yeah,

(08:22):
it seems that's what the Steelers are going to do here, Matt.
He looks like a guy that's gonna follow, and here's
a guy that definitely deserves being followed.

Speaker 4 (08:28):
And their style plays sort of similar to like I
would worry about Porter, you know, just a little unproven again, short,
little quick, tiny, you know, change direction, waterbug types. But
him and Pittman are going to bully it out. Yeah,
both their dads played in the league. I mean like
it's gonna be a fun matchup. And I think people
know Dale Lawliy and I do the drive every day more.

(08:49):
Today Dale kind of mentioned the offense is a lot
like end of career Roethlisberger where they it's a lot
of Pittman's of Deonte, you know, just a lot of short, quick,
They all high targets, you know, and he doesn't really
push the ball down the field unless he's going to
pierce outside the numbers, you know, he's kind of the
home run threat, but Pittman gets a ton of targets

(09:13):
and he's really really good.

Speaker 3 (09:14):
Tight Ends have burned the Steelers the past couple of weeks.
Trey McBride, Hunter Henry four different tight ends played between
seventeen and twenty four snaps last week. So it's really
a mixed bag in Indianapolis. But you'd have to expect
an offensive mind like Shane Steichen would see what these
past two teams have done despite having better personnel at
the position, and at least toy with attacking the middle
linebackers with the tight end you have to.

Speaker 4 (09:36):
I mean, as you mentioned, they live in eleven, so
there's a very high percentage of just one on the
field and it's one of four guys. It's not like
the blocking tight end, the receiving tight end. I'm sure.
I mean, of course the Steelers are studying this, but
there's probably tendencies like do you come into pass block,
do you come into run routes? I mean, there must

(09:57):
be tells there with how they're using these tight ends
because it's four of it's bizarre.

Speaker 3 (10:00):
Yea, Kylon Grantson, Drew Ogletree, Moley Cox and the rookie
Will Mallory. You'll see all of them. You'll see all
four of them at one point.

Speaker 1 (10:07):
And Jelanni Woods has hurt, he might be the best
of the group.

Speaker 3 (10:09):
And then as far as running the football on offense,
Zach Moss played fifty four of possible sixty four snaps
last week. He was tough for no gain on three
carries last week and took a loss on three more.
He had just three carries in that game that were
over three yards. Trey Sermon was the only other Colts
running back with a carry against Cincinnati. Moss has averaged
two point seven yards per carrier less than three of
his last four games.

Speaker 1 (10:30):
Moss was never.

Speaker 3 (10:31):
Supposed to be a feature back, because now I have
one of the better feature backs in the NFL when healthy.
Taylor not healthy at the beginning of the year, not
healthy now, Moss was great at the beginning of the year.
Tread like you said, just ran off attire.

Speaker 2 (10:43):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (10:43):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (10:44):
His numbers lately have been very pedestrian, So I think
they'll probably try to attack the Steelers through the air.

Speaker 1 (10:50):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (10:50):
And the Colts only mustard forty six rushing ards total
last week and just two point six yards per carry.
You just mentioned they'll try to attack through the year.
Here's an interesting stat to end on the Colts offense.
Eleven different Steelers defenders have an interception this year this season,
but no one has more than two. Yeah, Sharon the wealth.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
As far as turning the ball over in the second.

Speaker 4 (11:08):
Area, yeah, I mean like Walker got one last week
on a tip. And you know, unfortunately they've had to
play a lot of people with safety and especially linebackers.

Speaker 2 (11:15):
One guy does not have one though.

Speaker 1 (11:17):
Yeah, he's due thirty nine.

Speaker 3 (11:19):
Yeah, and he's got a big old cast that he
had to deal with the past couple of weeks too.
But yeah, it's very, very weird that he hasn't got one.
This defense he gets from by the end of the season,
and she does too. It might just be a pick
six as well. Matt knowing good be looking at the
Colts defense. They're twenty fifth in total d three hundred
and fifty seven yards allowed, seventeenth against the past two
twenty six allowed, twenty sixth against the run one thirty one,

(11:40):
and it's getting worse.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
It's get worse.

Speaker 3 (11:41):
Twenty ninth in scoring defense twenty five point four points
per game allowed, they're tied for fifth and takeaways though
twenty one, that's tied with the Steelers, and three point
two sacks per game is third most in the NFL.
So and they hemorrhad yards, they hemorrhaged points, but other
than that, they turn you over and they'll get after
the quarterback.

Speaker 4 (11:59):
Yeah, say, big play defense. I need to look into
this because I know I think they have a high
number of defensive and special teams. That's just for me
playing fantasy. And their defense right touchdowns this year, and
they're very splashy defense. They do rush the passer well,
They've invested a lot in their front four, a lot

(12:19):
of first round picks there, and they take the ball away.
But boy, their run defense has been really worrisome lately
and getting worse.

Speaker 3 (12:28):
The Colts allow five point two yards per play for
the season, but have allowed five point five over their
past three games. They allowed six point eight yards per
play last week to the Bengals, and they got ran
all over by the Bengals, but also gave up a
lot of receiving yards to running backs in Cincinnati last week.
There's a fifty four yard touchdown pass to Chase Brown,
but they were dumping off to Joe Mixon as well
throughout the game. So through the ground, through the air,

(12:51):
getting the running backs involved really worked for Cincinnati against Andy,
something the Steelers can duplicate.

Speaker 4 (12:55):
Yeah, and I would like to see Harris get more
involved as a pass catcher. We know Warren is superb
in that regard, and I know everyone's loves to give
mat Canada a hard time, but I don't like the
fact that since Canada was let go, Warren's role has decreased.

Speaker 1 (13:13):
I don't understand that at all.

Speaker 2 (13:15):
It's a good point, and no one's really been harping on.

Speaker 4 (13:17):
That, No, Right, It's a good three game stretch, and
question is the least usage over those three games of
the year.

Speaker 3 (13:23):
Over their past seven games, the Colts have given up
ony twenty nine rushing yards, which is one hundred and
forty seven per game, and for the season, only five
defenses are worse on an EPA standpoint EPA per rush
standpoint than the Colts. So running backs and running backs
and more running backs is a good game plan, Yeah,
a good place to start with your game plan.

Speaker 4 (13:40):
And they're seeing the high percentage of runs right exactly. Yeah,
people running and.

Speaker 3 (13:44):
He didn't record a sack last week. We did mention, though,
that they are third in the league for sacks per game.
Not only does Indianapolis have thirteen different defensive players with
at least one sack this season.

Speaker 2 (13:54):
But they have four with over five.

Speaker 3 (13:57):
Samson, Ebukam, Quitty pay, Deo ad Ying and DeForest Buckner
all over five sacks. They're also recording a sack on
eight point four percent of opposing dropbacks, which only three
defenses are better. So your tackles are going to be
tested a lot in this Yeah, your line in general
is going to be tested in pass protection.

Speaker 4 (14:13):
I love Buckner. I mean he's kind of like their
cam Hayward kalagisk around, professional captain, high character, interior dude
that can do a lot, But none of their edge
guys are like i'd have high Smith over all their
edge guys just let alone watch. Yeah, they're all young
first round pick types on this team that are athletic,

(14:36):
and I should have mentioned this earlier. Like their front office,
it's very obvious what they covet is they this team
looks great coming off the bus. They're all tall, long arms,
they all test well the combine, and they're developmental players.
You know, they're trusting their coaches.

Speaker 2 (14:50):
In the development organization.

Speaker 1 (14:51):
Matt.

Speaker 3 (14:51):
I mean they, like you mentioned at the beginning of
the show, despite the Steelers success, they're always good, especially in.

Speaker 2 (14:55):
These two thousand eras.

Speaker 3 (14:56):
Yeah, yeah, and able to maneuver from Manning to Luck
to now this new host apocalyptic wasteland. And hopefully they
have their guy in Anthony Richardson. But they always have
those teams that look good on paper, they.

Speaker 4 (15:06):
Do and for whatever reason, they can't beat the Steelers.

Speaker 2 (15:09):
Hopefully that trend continues.

Speaker 3 (15:11):
Quit he pay with somebody that Tom mentioned in his
press conference this speak. Kenny Moore was also somebody that
he mentioned corner. But the guy he mentioned that I
want to talk about right now is Zire Franklin, who
I think what Tomlin said is Zayer's abilities has made
it easy for them to move on from Shaq Leonard
and such a great player when he started in this league.
I really hope injuries don't derail him completely because I

(15:34):
mean he was on a Fred Warner Luke esque trajectory. Uh,
and then the injuries happened, and now he's in Philadelphia
trying to find a second win. But the drop off
between it and Franklin's on an all pro trajectory.

Speaker 1 (15:47):
This year.

Speaker 2 (15:47):
He leads the league in tackles.

Speaker 1 (15:49):
Diddy, I didn't know that.

Speaker 4 (15:50):
I mean, he shows up consistently on film, and Leonard
was coming back from injury. But Franklin was the better
player in twenty twenty three. So I think you know
they Leonard became I don't say he became a distraction,
but you put a player like that on the bench,
or a rotational guy some kind of sometimes it kind
of messes with your locker room and your chemistry, and
so they thought they were better off without him.

Speaker 3 (16:11):
Seventh round pick in twenty eighteen. About that Franklin so
took him a while to catch on in five years,
but he finally looks like he's fifth year paying off
for him and probably do a big pay day.

Speaker 1 (16:21):
I mean they got some playmakers.

Speaker 3 (16:22):
Yeah, yeah, no doubt about it. Let's take a look
at some key matchups before we get out of here.
And we highlighted this already, but it's Michael Pittman junior first,
Joey Porter junior. Like you said, both fathers in the
NFL with successful NFL careers.

Speaker 2 (16:34):
Both of these got them.

Speaker 3 (16:35):
Pittman has a long track record of having a successful
career in the NFL. His best season can't start much
better than Joey Porter Junior has to his NFL's career either.

Speaker 2 (16:42):
So really excitable matchup. Yeah, and Pivotal one too.

Speaker 4 (16:46):
Yeah, I'm a much more to add to it. I
think it's a good matchup for Porter. Pittman's a great player,
but their style of play I think works pretty well
for Porter.

Speaker 1 (16:55):
It's gonna be a physical battle.

Speaker 2 (16:57):
And then you mentioned this guy to Forrest Buckner.

Speaker 3 (16:59):
There cam Steelers interior offensive line Mason Cole, James Daniel
see him, although how do they handle him?

Speaker 4 (17:04):
Yeah, and he hasn't been quite himself lately, but I
did think he was. I just have a lot of
respect for his game.

Speaker 3 (17:11):
Steelers and Colts four point thirty kickoff on Saturday this
week in Indianapolis. Steelers with a win can really help
improve their playoff chances.

Speaker 2 (17:20):
From Matt Williamson, I'm Tom Opferman.

Speaker 3 (17:21):
Thanks always for giving us a listen, and we'll talk
to you next week on the Advanced Scout