December 20, 2023 • 16 mins
Matt Williamson and Tom Opferman discuss the upcoming matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the advanced scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
You do. It's called Indianapolis last Saturday, dropping their third
straight game of the year. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals, who
come to town on Saturday, have won three straight games.
Sinnati has been outscored by four points compared to a
minus fifty seven scoring differential for the Steelers this year.
(00:23):
Pittsburgh is five hundred at home and the Bengals are
five hundred on the road. So these are two teams
really going in opposite directions here, Matt.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
One hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
And just to pull the curtain back, I mean, we
record this after you and I do different stuff. And
I was there's about a five minute break where I
sit in the lobby here at the station and I
fiddle with my stats or whatever, and I found this
one right before we came in. I emailed it to
you probably have chances to get it in. But since
these teams played in Week twelve, which not that long ago, right,
(00:54):
the Bengals are sixth in the NFL in scoring on
forty eight point six percent of the drives.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Steelers are thirtieth.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
So you talk about teams going offsite directions since we've
seen them last. Browning is settled in the Steelers, haven't.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
I mean reminding people from the last time these teams met.
The Bengals had just ten first downs compared to twenty
two by the Steelers. Pittsburgh was eight of seventeen on
third downs compared to two of ten for Cincinnati. The
Steelers produced one hundred ninety nine more yards of offense.
They averaged six point two more yards per play. Are
they averaged six point two yards per play compared to
since he's five point four. They possessed the ball for
(01:30):
thirty seven minutes. I mean, they dominated the Bengals ever
since then. The Bengals offense is really woke up. It
It looks like what the Bengals offense was gonna like.
We assume the Bengals offense was gonna get on track
this year. We just tinkured number nine was going to
be pooling the strings and instead it's number six.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
So again, that was only week twelve, and that seems
like unrecognizable for both teams because Cincinnati's offense has been
extremely efficient, as you mentioned, they're on a winning streak.
Steelers have crumbled in all regard since then and are
on a losing streak. But I'm not trying to blow smoke,
But can't you reincarnate the Week twelve game?
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Maybe?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
I tone we're gonna take in this next you know,
twenty minutes or so doing this podcast, you know, you
kind of know the game plan to beat these guys.
Can you go out there and execute it again? And
it's not like it's the changeover between Canada and Faulkner Joels,
because this was Faulkner in sulivn's first game exactly against
the Bengals. Despite the Bengals, you know, being eight and six,
the Steelers seven and seven, still alive in the playoff race,
(02:28):
the Bengals more so than the Steelers, especially if they
win this game. Man, I kind of feel like both
these teams are gonna miss.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
You know.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
The Steelers faced LEA six, Yeah right, and they face
the leagu's sixth most difficult schedule the rest of the way,
while Cincinnati faces the eighth most difficult and the Bengals
are slated to face the most difficult run of opposing
defense is the rest of the way in the league.
So I think the Bengals. This is a great story.
They rallied. I thought they were gonna quitment bro got hurt,
and they didn't. They proved me wrong there. But I think,
like you said, tie breakers, they don't have them in
(02:53):
their back pocket and the schedules just too much of
a bear for them. I mean, the Steelers have just
dug themselves into a hole where they need a lot
of help.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
Now, I mean I was flat out wrong.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
But four or five weeks ago I buried the Bengals
on a lot of different media outlets.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
I need too.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
I thought they would quit.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Yeah, I mean I just looked at it and been
like and.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
The Steelers game, their first outing out there was proof
of that.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Yeah, I was like, boom. I mean, I'm right, it's
not their year. Unfortunately, they wasted a Borough year and
I was wrong. I mean they are I give back
to that organization a lot of credit and the reason
that they won't miss the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
I don't think we'll be browning, you know. To be
very honest with you, I mean.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
It's just they just dug too big a hole early
in the season with tie breakers.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
A quick reminder of the series history between these two
teams before we dig into the offense and defensive side
of the ball for the Bengals. The series began in
nineteen seventy and Pittsburgh leads the series sixty nine and
thirty nine all time. Two of those games occurred in
the postseason O six and in sixteen. Steelers won both
of those contests in memorable fashion. Cincinnati has won four
of the last six meetings, but the Steelers won in
(03:53):
Cincinnati Week twelve of this season. Like we mentioned before,
that Pittsburgh was won an eleven game winning streak. Cincinnati
has won thirteen of the forty nine games between these
divisional rivals that have been played in the two thousands.
Mike Tomlin is twenty five and eleven vers Cincinnati, including
that playoff win in twenty sixteen. Over the past ten seasons,
Cincinnati is three and two if Joe Burrow is their
(04:14):
quarterback against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are two and thirteen
without Burrow in the series, and that includes Jake Browning. Yeah,
in a recent meeting just a few weeks back, Let's
take a look at this Bengals offense that has been
surging lately. You know, I'll give you these numbers but
they're kind of skewed because of how great they've been lately.
They're twenty first in the total of season.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
They've put a lot of stock in Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Yeah, thirteenth in passing yards. That's actually improved a lot
with Browning as well. Thirty first in rushing the football.
You know, that's a little deceiving too, Matt, because they're
running football a little bit better now and.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Their passing game has become an extension of the run
game where they're I know, Jamar Chase probably won't play
in this game, but they'll throw him a ball at
the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
You'll break three tackles.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
They're throwing the backs and tight ends a very high
percentage of the time, where they didn't ever with Burrow.
So it's much more of a ball control play it
close to the vest and he's been very accurate. But
still the running games far from great.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Well. One thing that's been consistent is they don't turn
the ball over. They have twelve giveaways and it's tied
for the fewest in the NFL, and that hasn't changed
since Browning has come in. He's protected the football.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Yeah, I mean, the Steelers for the year are right
there with the Bangals, But the Bengals have been phenomenal
in turnover stuff. Yeah, without question.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
For the season, Bengals offense average five point two yards
per play, but that's been up to six point three
yards per play over the past three games, which for context,
has put them in the category of elite offenses in
the NFL. Only the Commanders and Jets throw the ball
this season at a higher rate than Cincinnati. Those are
two weird teams to be throwing the.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Ball a lot losing a lot.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
That's true, they got it, they're chasing, But the Bengals
are only throwing the ball on fifty seven percent of
their snaps the past three weeks. They were losing a
lot against the Vikings on Saturday, so they had to
throw to get back into the game. But I think
that's what you were kind of just saying. You know,
they're using their running game a lot more to set
up the passing game. It's not just pass pass pass.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
It's just been very Browning friendly, I mean, and he's
very accurate, he's not bashful, and it's been efficiency is
a word I keep using, and you'll probably psyche this,
but I mean, of all the quarterbacks with at least
one hundred passing attempts. Browning is only second to Brock
Party in yards per attempt, in passer rating, and they're
(06:20):
not asking to do a lot of difficult stuff, but
it's just efficient, efficient, deficient.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
And to even expand on that, over the past three
games the offense has been in has put out eighty
fifth percentile, sixty fifth percentile, and seventy third percentile EPA
per play performances. Jake Browning he had a positive EPA
per play in each of those games. That he's second
amongst all quarterbacks during that time frame behind Rock Party,
Party Party. Who is I think if you're going to
(06:47):
give the award to a quarterback, which I think this
year more than ever, you might be able to give
MVP to someone not a quarterback. But if you're going
to give played last right but CMC two yea. But
if you're gonna give it to a quarterback, which they
usually default to these days, he's the frontrunner right now.
So this is the only guy that's been better than Browning.
He's the guy who's probably gonna win the MVP this year.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Yep, Yeah, I mean that's a historically great offense in
San Francisco. And it's only three weeks, but the Bengals
are doing some of that stuff now real quick. Jamar
Chase is still the scariest guy out there. He's their
best player, not Saturday.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
And if he's not going to be in the mix,
which seems.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Unlikely, yeah, it doesn't seem good.
Speaker 3 (07:23):
Everybody is asked to do a lot more, even if
they don't throw the balls once.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
They used to.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Browning threw for two hundred twenty seven yards his first
start against the Steelers in Week twelve, but last week
he threw for three hundred and thirty four yards against Minnesota.
Bengals as a team have the lowest average depth of
target in the league by good margin. Their average pass
travels just six point four to three yards downfield. Kansas
City is next at six point eight three, But just
isolating on Browning, his average depth of target comes in
(07:50):
a little bit less than that, even at six point
three yards downfield. Over his past six games this year,
two very explosive offenses cited there, the Bengals and the
Chiefs just not really pushing the ball down the field
through the air.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
No again, it's just efficient, you know, And they're getting
stuff after the catch, spreading the ball around to four
tight ends like the Colts two running backs. We know
who the receivers are, and you know Higgins is healthy
finally too, which is a good thing, but Chase isn't.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Twelve different Bengals receivers were targeted last week, so Browning
is not shy at letting everybody get a bite of
this apple. You mentioned Jamar Sace. He has five hundred
and eighty one receiving yards. That's more than any other
Bengals player this season. But you know he's not looking
likely to play in this game. So that means to
Higgins slides up to that number one role, Tyler Boyd
slides up to that number two role. Both made massive
(08:35):
plays last week against the Vikings, Boyd to set up
the game winning field going overtime, and we all have
seen the Higgins play to get the game to over
at this point. And so there's still stud receivers that
you're dealing with.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
They are, they are, and I would imagine Porter will
see a lot of Higgins. Higgins hasn't been himself up
until very very recently, so looking at his cumulative stats
for the season, just aren't fair.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
You think that's a health related thing. Finally getting healthy
good for him too, because I mean, you know, ere agency,
he's gonna need to make some money in this offseason,
and you know, dealing with an injury. Proving that he's
not injured going into the offseason always helps.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
If he could finish strong, he'd be set up really nicely.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
That you mentioned they have four different tight ends this season,
and I've played between one hundred and seventy eight and
three hundred and sixty two offensive snaps. Are any of
them really weapons that you have to worry about sample
or of Smith? I mean, I guess if you're the
Steelers and you're so depleted at safety and inside linebacker,
anybody can play tight end, right, I'd be worried about.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
It, didn't We have this exact conversation actually called.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Some Milalley Cox strolling into the end zone.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
YEA mean, so all tight ends are scary. None of
them on paper are particularly scary. But they have four
that they use, much like Indianapolis, And who's to say
the Steelers can stop any of them with their linebackers
in safeties.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
And it's surprising, you know, for the season long to
see the Bengal struggling to run the football because Joe Mixon,
you know, is a pretty solid back. Stills are great
nose for the end zone though, Man, he still finds
you know, he's a good at anytime touchdown score Ben
if you want to put that part or that prop
bet down. He's getting a little bit more involved though
in the game plan a little bit, and Chase Brown
as well, especially out of the backfield in the passing game.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
One hundred percent. Again, it's ball control, it's efficiency. Brown
has fresh legs. I always like to look at rookie
running backs this time of year that have done very little.
They kind of burst on the scene with a lot
of vigor and fresh legs, and Brown qualifies for that.
Mixing is not quite what it used to be, but
very talented player.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Looking at the Bengals on the defensive side of the ball,
their thirtieth in total defense, thirte undern eightywo yards allowed
per game, twenty seventh against the pass, twenty eighth against
the run, their twentieth in points per game allowed, and
they were the defense that allowed the Steelers to end
a historic streak of not reaching four hundred yards earlier
this season. So you know about this defense. If you're
a Steelers fan, it can be had. It's not a
(10:42):
very strong defense. Their biggest threat is they can take
the ball away from you. But if you can play
you know, some ball control football, you should be able
to move it up and down the field. And you
should know that you should be able to move it
up and down the field, because you just did it
like five weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Yeah, and even then a couple of weeks ago. I
couldn't quite put my finger on why did this defense
go so much backwards from last year. I mean they
have two new safeties from a year ago, but a
highly respected defensive coordinator basically running it back and they
went from like a top ten defense to a bottom
three or four defense.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
But I like the personnel, Matt, Yeah, they're not. We
talked about this last time we did this. Guy Hubbard
and Hendrick sand and Jermaine Pratt and Logan Wilson is
an underrated inside linebacker, I mean.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Helping we know about the UKA and at all levels
they're not.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Dax Hill is a good pick. Yeah, not you know,
a bus by any stretch.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
They did lose DJ readers since then. That's a big
deal for them. He's a high quality interior player. And
the other stat I found in the lobby before we
hit record was they're allowing the most yards per play
on first downs and they're also allowing the most plays
per game of twenty or more yards. So that's killed
(11:50):
them too. You know, they're always behind the sticks and
they're allowing big chunk plays. Now that's not exactly the
Steelers forte, right, but if you could hit Pickens over
the top twice in this game or something along, if
they're vulnerable, maybe you pick at that scab.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
A little bit.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Yeah, No, defense is facing a higher average depth of
target nine point three nine yards on average than Cincinnati
this season, So yeah, teams like to attack this defense
down the field. Pat Fryremouth had the best game of
his season. I'll even venture to say the best game
of his career. Maybe Matt nine catches in one hundred
and twenty yards against the Bengals. Howd he get him
more involved into this game plan? Because he had that
(12:27):
great game against the Bengals and he pulled the Houdini act,
and you haven't really heard from him since it was that.
I guess we'll find out if it was just so
matchup specific against Cincinnati, or if they really just struggle
utilizing tight ends in this offense.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
I don't have that answer. It frustrates me, to be
honest with you. I mean, Friar Moose's numbers are really
scary if you take that game out. I mean, I
think he had thirteen targets leading up to that game.
Has done very little since.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
But you see it. I mean, you've seen his career.
He's a good football player.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Like your scout's eye is telling you, like, this guy
can be a contributor and he's the starter in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
Yeah, and he saw it in that game, but only
that game, And that's frustrating to me.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Steelers ran for one hundred and fifty three yards against
Cincinnati earlier this season, the average two point eight yards
per carry in Indianapolis. That produced just seventy four rushing yards.
But the Bengals allow one hundred and forty three yards
on the ground to Minnesota last week. The Colts front
really impressed a lot of people. I think after the
Steeler game, it's not as formidable against the run in
(13:29):
Cincinnati as it no.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
And I will say the I sold the Colts front
seven short a week ago and we talked about him,
and they are a very athletic, active group. I don't
think this is as good, but we mentioned their players.
They're not bad in their front seven at all on paper.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
No, they're not. Trey Hendrickson I think leads the charge
with that for the Bengals. Yeah, fifteen sacks on the season,
He's only one sack behind TJ. Watt. I mean, he's great,
flirting with the league lead and winning that category this year.
No one else on the team has more than five sacks,
so Hendrickson is really, you know, the life blood when
it comes to sacking the quarterback. But they average two
(14:10):
point seven sacks per game. It's almost right around the
middle of the NFL, so I mean they can get
after the quarterback. It's a lot of one man show.
But still, with the Steelers giving up four sacks last
week to Indianapolis, that's something they got to be conscious of.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
No doubt.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
I thought the Steelers oh line played very poorly in
all facets, especially as the game went on, and the
right side in particular. But damn Moore, in a tough game,
you can't take this group lightly. You can't think anybody
lightly for where the Steelers was in.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
So the Steelers were so successful on third downs against
Cincinnati when they played in Week twelve. Since then, on
this three game losing streak, they are combined eleven for
thirty seven on third downs. I come in, I'm doing
all these podcasts after that Bengals game, and I'm like,
that's the one thing that I like the most of us.
Four hundred yards is great. I know they didn't score
that many points whatever, Maybe that comes later. Converting on
third down finally and it's just gone away. The well's
(14:58):
gone dry again.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Yeah, And since then they've turned the ball over a
lot more, and you know, all these things are going handed.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Like this is a team you can get a lot
of first downs.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Yeah exactly. I mean it's there for the taking if
you can do it.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
All right, let'shigh let some key matchups before we get
out of here. Bengals wide receiver to Higgins versus Steelers
corner Joey Porter Jr. I love this part of the
show pretty much every week now with us. It is
because it's just identifying who's Porter gonna follow this week,
and it's an exciting matchup. We're kind of robbed of
the Michael Pittman Joey Porter Junior matchup last week because
of the injury that Pittman suffered unfortunately. Yeah, how do
(15:30):
you think he did before that point? And then are
you excited to see him against you know, another bigger
body type receiver like Higgins.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
Yeah, Pittman put up really good numbers, and I will
say this is an Eagles thing that Stichan does. They're
really good at RPO stuff, rub routes, pick routes, stuff
like that that gave the Steelers trouble.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
In general, you know, and.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Like a good offensive mind. He's like, I'm not just
gonna let Joey Porter Junior take my guy out of it.
I'm gonna get Joey Porter Junior off of my guy.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
And they did a good job of that.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
I don't think Porter played poorly, although almost everyone the
team played poorly, right, but we didn't get to see
it start to finish, as you mentioned, But I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
I mean, I think.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
Body type style of play, this is a good matchup
for Porter.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
And then we mentioned the Steelers giving up four sacks
against that Colts front last week. A lot of players
on the Bengals side of the ball on defense that
can get after the quarterback. Dan Moore versus Trey Hendrickson
is definitely one to keep an eye on, especially because
Dan Moore in pass pro. I think he's kind of
taking a step backwards as the season's gone on.
Speaker 1 (16:30):
I agree.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
I mean, I thought he fared better than expected early
in the season against the Bosos and Garretts and Crosby.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
With all those thuds that they had.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Y yeah, yeah, I mean the whole team isn't playing
well as we know, but more in particular is playing
some of his worst football right now.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
Steelers and Bengals kick it off for the home finale
at Akrosurer Stadium four point thirty on Saturday afternoon. For
Matt Williamson, I'm Tom Opferman. Thanks has always for giving
us a listen, and we'll talk to you next week
on the Advance Scout
We got some work to do.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the advanced scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
You do. It's called Indianapolis last Saturday, dropping their third
straight game of the year. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals, who
come to town on Saturday, have won three straight games.
Sinnati has been outscored by four points compared to a
minus fifty seven scoring differential for the Steelers this year.
(00:23):
Pittsburgh is five hundred at home and the Bengals are
five hundred on the road. So these are two teams
really going in opposite directions here, Matt.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
One hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
And just to pull the curtain back, I mean, we
record this after you and I do different stuff. And
I was there's about a five minute break where I
sit in the lobby here at the station and I
fiddle with my stats or whatever, and I found this
one right before we came in. I emailed it to
you probably have chances to get it in. But since
these teams played in Week twelve, which not that long ago, right,
(00:54):
the Bengals are sixth in the NFL in scoring on
forty eight point six percent of the drives.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Steelers are thirtieth.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
So you talk about teams going offsite directions since we've
seen them last. Browning is settled in the Steelers, haven't.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
I mean reminding people from the last time these teams met.
The Bengals had just ten first downs compared to twenty
two by the Steelers. Pittsburgh was eight of seventeen on
third downs compared to two of ten for Cincinnati. The
Steelers produced one hundred ninety nine more yards of offense.
They averaged six point two more yards per play. Are
they averaged six point two yards per play compared to
since he's five point four. They possessed the ball for
(01:30):
thirty seven minutes. I mean, they dominated the Bengals ever
since then. The Bengals offense is really woke up. It
It looks like what the Bengals offense was gonna like.
We assume the Bengals offense was gonna get on track
this year. We just tinkured number nine was going to
be pooling the strings and instead it's number six.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
So again, that was only week twelve, and that seems
like unrecognizable for both teams because Cincinnati's offense has been
extremely efficient, as you mentioned, they're on a winning streak.
Steelers have crumbled in all regard since then and are
on a losing streak. But I'm not trying to blow smoke,
But can't you reincarnate the Week twelve game?
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Maybe?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
I tone we're gonna take in this next you know,
twenty minutes or so doing this podcast, you know, you
kind of know the game plan to beat these guys.
Can you go out there and execute it again? And
it's not like it's the changeover between Canada and Faulkner Joels,
because this was Faulkner in sulivn's first game exactly against
the Bengals. Despite the Bengals, you know, being eight and six,
the Steelers seven and seven, still alive in the playoff race,
(02:28):
the Bengals more so than the Steelers, especially if they
win this game. Man, I kind of feel like both
these teams are gonna miss.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
You know.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
The Steelers faced LEA six, Yeah right, and they face
the leagu's sixth most difficult schedule the rest of the way,
while Cincinnati faces the eighth most difficult and the Bengals
are slated to face the most difficult run of opposing
defense is the rest of the way in the league.
So I think the Bengals. This is a great story.
They rallied. I thought they were gonna quitment bro got hurt,
and they didn't. They proved me wrong there. But I think,
like you said, tie breakers, they don't have them in
(02:53):
their back pocket and the schedules just too much of
a bear for them. I mean, the Steelers have just
dug themselves into a hole where they need a lot
of help.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
Now, I mean I was flat out wrong.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
But four or five weeks ago I buried the Bengals
on a lot of different media outlets.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
I need too.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
I thought they would quit.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Yeah, I mean I just looked at it and been
like and.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
The Steelers game, their first outing out there was proof
of that.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Yeah, I was like, boom. I mean, I'm right, it's
not their year. Unfortunately, they wasted a Borough year and
I was wrong. I mean they are I give back
to that organization a lot of credit and the reason
that they won't miss the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
I don't think we'll be browning, you know. To be
very honest with you, I mean.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
It's just they just dug too big a hole early
in the season with tie breakers.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
A quick reminder of the series history between these two
teams before we dig into the offense and defensive side
of the ball for the Bengals. The series began in
nineteen seventy and Pittsburgh leads the series sixty nine and
thirty nine all time. Two of those games occurred in
the postseason O six and in sixteen. Steelers won both
of those contests in memorable fashion. Cincinnati has won four
of the last six meetings, but the Steelers won in
(03:53):
Cincinnati Week twelve of this season. Like we mentioned before,
that Pittsburgh was won an eleven game winning streak. Cincinnati
has won thirteen of the forty nine games between these
divisional rivals that have been played in the two thousands.
Mike Tomlin is twenty five and eleven vers Cincinnati, including
that playoff win in twenty sixteen. Over the past ten seasons,
Cincinnati is three and two if Joe Burrow is their
(04:14):
quarterback against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are two and thirteen
without Burrow in the series, and that includes Jake Browning. Yeah,
in a recent meeting just a few weeks back, Let's
take a look at this Bengals offense that has been
surging lately. You know, I'll give you these numbers but
they're kind of skewed because of how great they've been lately.
They're twenty first in the total of season.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
They've put a lot of stock in Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Yeah, thirteenth in passing yards. That's actually improved a lot
with Browning as well. Thirty first in rushing the football.
You know, that's a little deceiving too, Matt, because they're
running football a little bit better now and.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Their passing game has become an extension of the run
game where they're I know, Jamar Chase probably won't play
in this game, but they'll throw him a ball at
the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
You'll break three tackles.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
They're throwing the backs and tight ends a very high
percentage of the time, where they didn't ever with Burrow.
So it's much more of a ball control play it
close to the vest and he's been very accurate. But
still the running games far from great.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Well. One thing that's been consistent is they don't turn
the ball over. They have twelve giveaways and it's tied
for the fewest in the NFL, and that hasn't changed
since Browning has come in. He's protected the football.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Yeah, I mean, the Steelers for the year are right
there with the Bangals, But the Bengals have been phenomenal
in turnover stuff. Yeah, without question.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
For the season, Bengals offense average five point two yards
per play, but that's been up to six point three
yards per play over the past three games, which for context,
has put them in the category of elite offenses in
the NFL. Only the Commanders and Jets throw the ball
this season at a higher rate than Cincinnati. Those are
two weird teams to be throwing the.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Ball a lot losing a lot.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
That's true, they got it, they're chasing, But the Bengals
are only throwing the ball on fifty seven percent of
their snaps the past three weeks. They were losing a
lot against the Vikings on Saturday, so they had to
throw to get back into the game. But I think
that's what you were kind of just saying. You know,
they're using their running game a lot more to set
up the passing game. It's not just pass pass pass.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
It's just been very Browning friendly, I mean, and he's
very accurate, he's not bashful, and it's been efficiency is
a word I keep using, and you'll probably psyche this,
but I mean, of all the quarterbacks with at least
one hundred passing attempts. Browning is only second to Brock
Party in yards per attempt, in passer rating, and they're
(06:20):
not asking to do a lot of difficult stuff, but
it's just efficient, efficient, deficient.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
And to even expand on that, over the past three
games the offense has been in has put out eighty
fifth percentile, sixty fifth percentile, and seventy third percentile EPA
per play performances. Jake Browning he had a positive EPA
per play in each of those games. That he's second
amongst all quarterbacks during that time frame behind Rock Party,
Party Party. Who is I think if you're going to
(06:47):
give the award to a quarterback, which I think this
year more than ever, you might be able to give
MVP to someone not a quarterback. But if you're going
to give played last right but CMC two yea. But
if you're gonna give it to a quarterback, which they
usually default to these days, he's the frontrunner right now.
So this is the only guy that's been better than Browning.
He's the guy who's probably gonna win the MVP this year.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
Yep, Yeah, I mean that's a historically great offense in
San Francisco. And it's only three weeks, but the Bengals
are doing some of that stuff now real quick. Jamar
Chase is still the scariest guy out there. He's their
best player, not Saturday.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
And if he's not going to be in the mix,
which seems.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Unlikely, yeah, it doesn't seem good.
Speaker 3 (07:23):
Everybody is asked to do a lot more, even if
they don't throw the balls once.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
They used to.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Browning threw for two hundred twenty seven yards his first
start against the Steelers in Week twelve, but last week
he threw for three hundred and thirty four yards against Minnesota.
Bengals as a team have the lowest average depth of
target in the league by good margin. Their average pass
travels just six point four to three yards downfield. Kansas
City is next at six point eight three, But just
isolating on Browning, his average depth of target comes in
(07:50):
a little bit less than that, even at six point
three yards downfield. Over his past six games this year,
two very explosive offenses cited there, the Bengals and the
Chiefs just not really pushing the ball down the field
through the air.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
No again, it's just efficient, you know, And they're getting
stuff after the catch, spreading the ball around to four
tight ends like the Colts two running backs. We know
who the receivers are, and you know Higgins is healthy
finally too, which is a good thing, but Chase isn't.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Twelve different Bengals receivers were targeted last week, so Browning
is not shy at letting everybody get a bite of
this apple. You mentioned Jamar Sace. He has five hundred
and eighty one receiving yards. That's more than any other
Bengals player this season. But you know he's not looking
likely to play in this game. So that means to
Higgins slides up to that number one role, Tyler Boyd
slides up to that number two role. Both made massive
(08:35):
plays last week against the Vikings, Boyd to set up
the game winning field going overtime, and we all have
seen the Higgins play to get the game to over
at this point. And so there's still stud receivers that
you're dealing with.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
They are, they are, and I would imagine Porter will
see a lot of Higgins. Higgins hasn't been himself up
until very very recently, so looking at his cumulative stats
for the season, just aren't fair.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
You think that's a health related thing. Finally getting healthy
good for him too, because I mean, you know, ere agency,
he's gonna need to make some money in this offseason,
and you know, dealing with an injury. Proving that he's
not injured going into the offseason always helps.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
If he could finish strong, he'd be set up really nicely.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
That you mentioned they have four different tight ends this season,
and I've played between one hundred and seventy eight and
three hundred and sixty two offensive snaps. Are any of
them really weapons that you have to worry about sample
or of Smith? I mean, I guess if you're the
Steelers and you're so depleted at safety and inside linebacker,
anybody can play tight end, right, I'd be worried about.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
It, didn't We have this exact conversation actually called.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Some Milalley Cox strolling into the end zone.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
YEA mean, so all tight ends are scary. None of
them on paper are particularly scary. But they have four
that they use, much like Indianapolis, And who's to say
the Steelers can stop any of them with their linebackers
in safeties.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
And it's surprising, you know, for the season long to
see the Bengal struggling to run the football because Joe Mixon,
you know, is a pretty solid back. Stills are great
nose for the end zone though, Man, he still finds
you know, he's a good at anytime touchdown score Ben
if you want to put that part or that prop
bet down. He's getting a little bit more involved though
in the game plan a little bit, and Chase Brown
as well, especially out of the backfield in the passing game.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
One hundred percent. Again, it's ball control, it's efficiency. Brown
has fresh legs. I always like to look at rookie
running backs this time of year that have done very little.
They kind of burst on the scene with a lot
of vigor and fresh legs, and Brown qualifies for that.
Mixing is not quite what it used to be, but
very talented player.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Looking at the Bengals on the defensive side of the ball,
their thirtieth in total defense, thirte undern eightywo yards allowed
per game, twenty seventh against the pass, twenty eighth against
the run, their twentieth in points per game allowed, and
they were the defense that allowed the Steelers to end
a historic streak of not reaching four hundred yards earlier
this season. So you know about this defense. If you're
a Steelers fan, it can be had. It's not a
(10:42):
very strong defense. Their biggest threat is they can take
the ball away from you. But if you can play
you know, some ball control football, you should be able
to move it up and down the field. And you
should know that you should be able to move it
up and down the field, because you just did it
like five weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Yeah, and even then a couple of weeks ago. I
couldn't quite put my finger on why did this defense
go so much backwards from last year. I mean they
have two new safeties from a year ago, but a
highly respected defensive coordinator basically running it back and they
went from like a top ten defense to a bottom
three or four defense.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
But I like the personnel, Matt, Yeah, they're not. We
talked about this last time we did this. Guy Hubbard
and Hendrick sand and Jermaine Pratt and Logan Wilson is
an underrated inside linebacker, I mean.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Helping we know about the UKA and at all levels
they're not.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
Dax Hill is a good pick. Yeah, not you know,
a bus by any stretch.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
They did lose DJ readers since then. That's a big
deal for them. He's a high quality interior player. And
the other stat I found in the lobby before we
hit record was they're allowing the most yards per play
on first downs and they're also allowing the most plays
per game of twenty or more yards. So that's killed
(11:50):
them too. You know, they're always behind the sticks and
they're allowing big chunk plays. Now that's not exactly the
Steelers forte, right, but if you could hit Pickens over
the top twice in this game or something along, if
they're vulnerable, maybe you pick at that scab.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
A little bit.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Yeah, No, defense is facing a higher average depth of
target nine point three nine yards on average than Cincinnati
this season, So yeah, teams like to attack this defense
down the field. Pat Fryremouth had the best game of
his season. I'll even venture to say the best game
of his career. Maybe Matt nine catches in one hundred
and twenty yards against the Bengals. Howd he get him
more involved into this game plan? Because he had that
(12:27):
great game against the Bengals and he pulled the Houdini act,
and you haven't really heard from him since it was that.
I guess we'll find out if it was just so
matchup specific against Cincinnati, or if they really just struggle
utilizing tight ends in this offense.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
I don't have that answer. It frustrates me, to be
honest with you. I mean, Friar Moose's numbers are really
scary if you take that game out. I mean, I
think he had thirteen targets leading up to that game.
Has done very little since.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
But you see it. I mean, you've seen his career.
He's a good football player.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Like your scout's eye is telling you, like, this guy
can be a contributor and he's the starter in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
Yeah, and he saw it in that game, but only
that game, And that's frustrating to me.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Steelers ran for one hundred and fifty three yards against
Cincinnati earlier this season, the average two point eight yards
per carry in Indianapolis. That produced just seventy four rushing yards.
But the Bengals allow one hundred and forty three yards
on the ground to Minnesota last week. The Colts front
really impressed a lot of people. I think after the
Steeler game, it's not as formidable against the run in
(13:29):
Cincinnati as it no.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
And I will say the I sold the Colts front
seven short a week ago and we talked about him,
and they are a very athletic, active group. I don't
think this is as good, but we mentioned their players.
They're not bad in their front seven at all on paper.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
No, they're not. Trey Hendrickson I think leads the charge
with that for the Bengals. Yeah, fifteen sacks on the season,
He's only one sack behind TJ. Watt. I mean, he's great,
flirting with the league lead and winning that category this year.
No one else on the team has more than five sacks,
so Hendrickson is really, you know, the life blood when
it comes to sacking the quarterback. But they average two
(14:10):
point seven sacks per game. It's almost right around the
middle of the NFL, so I mean they can get
after the quarterback. It's a lot of one man show.
But still, with the Steelers giving up four sacks last
week to Indianapolis, that's something they got to be conscious of.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
No doubt.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
I thought the Steelers oh line played very poorly in
all facets, especially as the game went on, and the
right side in particular. But damn Moore, in a tough game,
you can't take this group lightly. You can't think anybody
lightly for where the Steelers was in.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
So the Steelers were so successful on third downs against
Cincinnati when they played in Week twelve. Since then, on
this three game losing streak, they are combined eleven for
thirty seven on third downs. I come in, I'm doing
all these podcasts after that Bengals game, and I'm like,
that's the one thing that I like the most of us.
Four hundred yards is great. I know they didn't score
that many points whatever, Maybe that comes later. Converting on
third down finally and it's just gone away. The well's
(14:58):
gone dry again.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Yeah, And since then they've turned the ball over a
lot more, and you know, all these things are going handed.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Like this is a team you can get a lot
of first downs.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Yeah exactly. I mean it's there for the taking if
you can do it.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
All right, let'shigh let some key matchups before we get
out of here. Bengals wide receiver to Higgins versus Steelers
corner Joey Porter Jr. I love this part of the
show pretty much every week now with us. It is
because it's just identifying who's Porter gonna follow this week,
and it's an exciting matchup. We're kind of robbed of
the Michael Pittman Joey Porter Junior matchup last week because
of the injury that Pittman suffered unfortunately. Yeah, how do
(15:30):
you think he did before that point? And then are
you excited to see him against you know, another bigger
body type receiver like Higgins.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
Yeah, Pittman put up really good numbers, and I will
say this is an Eagles thing that Stichan does. They're
really good at RPO stuff, rub routes, pick routes, stuff
like that that gave the Steelers trouble.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
In general, you know, and.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Like a good offensive mind. He's like, I'm not just
gonna let Joey Porter Junior take my guy out of it.
I'm gonna get Joey Porter Junior off of my guy.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
And they did a good job of that.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
I don't think Porter played poorly, although almost everyone the
team played poorly, right, but we didn't get to see
it start to finish, as you mentioned, But I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
I mean, I think.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
Body type style of play, this is a good matchup
for Porter.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
And then we mentioned the Steelers giving up four sacks
against that Colts front last week. A lot of players
on the Bengals side of the ball on defense that
can get after the quarterback. Dan Moore versus Trey Hendrickson
is definitely one to keep an eye on, especially because
Dan Moore in pass pro. I think he's kind of
taking a step backwards as the season's gone on.
Speaker 1 (16:30):
I agree.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
I mean, I thought he fared better than expected early
in the season against the Bosos and Garretts and Crosby.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
With all those thuds that they had.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Y yeah, yeah, I mean the whole team isn't playing
well as we know, but more in particular is playing
some of his worst football right now.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
Steelers and Bengals kick it off for the home finale
at Akrosurer Stadium four point thirty on Saturday afternoon. For
Matt Williamson, I'm Tom Opferman. Thanks has always for giving
us a listen, and we'll talk to you next week
on the Advance Scout
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