Week 18 @ Ravens

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Upperman and Mac Williamson.

Speaker 3 (00:08):
Stee was coming to the season finale in Baltimore, winning
two straight games nine and seven record. The Ravens last
week with a dominant win over the Dolphins clinch not
only the AFC North but also the top seed in
the AFC playoffs. Matt, They've won six straight games, It's
the longest in the NFL. Their plus two to ten
point differential is also tops in the league. Before we

(00:28):
get to this matchup and who's going to be in
who's going to be out for Baltimore? Are they clearly
the best team in your eyes, not just in the
AFC but in the NFL right now?

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Yes, But I do think if they played the Niners
one hundred and eleven times, it might be a pretty
even series like that was. They got some bounces early
in that game, some flukey interceptions, and then they just
ran away with it. Perdy also played his worst, So yes,
they beat up on the Niners pretty strongly. I think
those two stand alone, I guess, is my bottom line,

(01:00):
but that they're doing some remarkable things Baltimore this year.

Speaker 1 (01:02):
Yeah, they're scary good. I agree with you there.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
Those two seem to be separating from the rest of
the pack in the NFL. You know, you bring the
stat pack to me every week. It's published on Steelers
dot Com. Everybody can consume it later in the week.
It's got a lot of great stuff in it. But
we just don't know how valuable all this information is
going to be this week, Matt. Because we're recording this
Wednesday early afternoon, Harbus's probably not going to announce what

(01:25):
he's going to do until later in the week. You
don't expect them to play many of their regulars. But again,
it's just it's very up in the air at this point.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
Yeah, I mean, you know that they're going to play hard.
I think we know that they're going to try to
get out of this game as quickly as possible with
as few of injuries as possible. You wonder, you know,
Steelers Ravens has its own lifeblood, It has its incredible history.
Will Harbob be able to ignore that and really, you know,

(01:56):
be the smart coach and think big picture in Super Bowl?
My bet is he will. But who knows. It might
get chippy at the end and get a little crazy.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Well, here's what I was thinking, Matt.

Speaker 3 (02:08):
You know, as far as you know, players like Zay
Flowers are concerned, and other members of the defense at Clowney,
who knows what they're gonna do, how long they're gonna play,
if they're gonna play at all. For me, I think
you can assume number eight on offense is out. I
just there's no reason to toy with Lamar, and then
number zero on defense I would hold out too. I
just don't think you need broke one to be out
there at all. There's nothing he's going to gain from that.

(02:28):
You don't need him going injury either. Like those are
the two that are at the top of my mind. Like,
I would be shocked if they play a snap.

Speaker 2 (02:35):
Yeah, I think they don't dress, you know what I
mean to your point, So to pull back curtain, we're
recording this Wednesday morning. I've only seen one pseudo injury
report for the Ravens, but one wrench in the plan
is a lot of their depth guys that you would
think would play a lot in this game are currently
on the injury report like the guys, So if they

(02:57):
can't go, you might have to put some starters in
a little more than you think, so we'll see how
that goes. I do think there are some guys like
Ronnie Stanley's continually fighting an ankle for three years, you know, like,
don't play him. Maybe Morgan moses the other tackle, but
can you rest two tackles, right, you know? I mean

(03:18):
it makes it really difficult left the game.

Speaker 3 (03:21):
Yeah, earlier that the Dolphin game. Maybe he just doesn't go.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
Yeah, I was thinking him and Clowney. As you mentioned, Frankly,
there's no way Justin Mattabuque plays in this game. I
mean that's not a household name for people. He is
a absolute killer, breakout defensive tackle. And to put it
into context, only Watt and Nick Bosa have more quarterback
hits than Mattabuque this year, and he's a defensive tackle,

(03:46):
so he's too valuable. I think him and Rokuwan aren't
playing at all. I would think Kyle Hamilton probably doesn't
either because he's been injured in important and he's been injured.
I think Humphrey's fighting something as well. So there's probably
five stars you just don't dress. But what's interesting to
me is how do you handle the flow of the game,

(04:06):
Like I'm sure Gus Edwards Justice Hill both dress, but
I would pound Melvin Gordon into the line of scrimma
and over and over. Yeah exactly.

Speaker 1 (04:15):
You know you don't need the trend on those tires, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (04:18):
Right, right, get Charlie Kohler some touches, maybe throw the
ball to the lacron. Twed Credwell and Tyson Wallace, you know,
those type of guys. So easier said than done, but
I'm sure they're gonna try to shorten the game.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
And that's a good point.

Speaker 3 (04:32):
You know, you would like to dress uh or dress
as few starters as you can, and you know, play
a lot of backups, but this is in preseason rosters,
you know. Yeah, right, you're just stuck with maybe having
a starter have to play, like maybe a Marcus Williams
has to be in the back of that defense for
the majority of this game, and you'd like to not
have him out there, but you're running out of body.
So that's definitely an interesting aspect to keep an eye

(04:55):
on when it comes to the Ravens.

Speaker 1 (04:57):
Before we get real quick, I bet.

Speaker 2 (04:58):
Tyler, I bet Tyler Bomb plays like I think he's
one of the best centers in the league. But he's young,
and you can't. You gotta put five capable offensive.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
He's young and he's healthy, So.

Speaker 2 (05:09):
Yeah, you might. He's gonna get two weeks. He's gonna
be a week off this week anyway.

Speaker 3 (05:12):
You know, quick look at the series history that I'm
sure everybody is well aware of between these two teams
before we get into the matchup. This outstanding rivalry started
in nineteen ninety six when the Ravens joined the NFL.
Since then, Pittsburgh leads the series thirty four to twenty five,
including four playoff matchups. In the playoffs, the Steelers have
lost just once against Baltimore. Pittsburgh won six of the
first seven meetings. They've also won six of the last

(05:34):
seven meetings, including the most recent matchup earlier this year,
a seventeen to ten victory in Week five. Steelers have
swept Baltimore in two of the past three seasons and
look to make that three of the past four. Tomlin
is ten or excuse me, Tomlin is twenty and sixteen
against the Ravens, while Harbaugh is fifteen and nineteen against
the Steelers. That kind of dominance for that long of
a stretch is so rare.

Speaker 1 (05:54):
For this rivalry, isn't it.

Speaker 2 (05:56):
Yeah, I mean it's almost hard to comprehend, you know,
like typing that is, Like.

Speaker 3 (06:01):
The Ravens haven't been bad, Matt. You could argue they've
been better than the Steelers over that stretch.

Speaker 2 (06:06):
Yeah, And some of it's just been timing, like end
of the year, Lamar's not in there, this type of game.
I mean, some of those things. And I wouldn't say, boy,
the Steelers are clearly the more dominant organization over that stretch,
but they do play the Ravens and the division really tight.
I mean both the Steelers are a better division record

(06:27):
than Baltimore and clearly Baltimore's the superior team.

Speaker 3 (06:31):
Let's start on the defensive side of the ball for
the Ravens only the Browns are better than Baltimore's four
point six yards per play allowed, but over the Ravens
last three weeks, they've allowed five point eight yards per
play Matt, So, like, what's going on there? And one
other trend that I've noticed earlier this year. I think
when we were doing this podcast around week five and
then weeks after, Ravens around the top three, top four

(06:53):
in rush defense, they're thirteenth in rush defense right now
in the NFL. Is something going wrong there for them?
And don't get you're wrong, that's good news for the Steelers.
I would like a less stiff running test against the
Ravens than you're used to.

Speaker 2 (07:06):
Yeah, I think some of it, without question, is they've
played unbelievably difficult teams lately.

Speaker 1 (07:13):
I'm good a running the football, yeah.

Speaker 2 (07:15):
Yeah, I mean the Niners, the Dolphins. I mean, they've
played the elite teams in the league of late, and
that's just, you know, that's the way it works. Of course,
I also think that they love the play in nickel
and I think you can get some bigger bodies on them,
and you know, when they're playing with the lead, they

(07:35):
don't mind so much. You know, they lead the league
in sacks. So yeah, they haven't been in many dog fights,
you know. But so I don't know if their run
defense is good, great or average. I know it's not terrible,
but I mean nothing about the team's terrible.

Speaker 3 (07:52):
I was just gonna say, we can nitpick the run
defense all we want and find some hole on the defense,
but the facts are they allow just sixteen point four
points per game. It's the best in the NFL. They're
also first in sacks, they're first and takeaways. They're second
in the league in red zone scoring, a touchdown percentage allowed,
they're fourth, and total yards allowed per game. They're sixth
in passing yards per game, and they allowed the third
best completion percentage allowed. And they're elite. They're an elite defense.

(08:14):
And I remember us talking before the season, Matt, and
we're saying, maybe that's the week for weakness for this
Ravens team. Maybe that defensive side of the ball is
what holds them back.

Speaker 1 (08:23):
Oh yeah, it's been.

Speaker 2 (08:23):
Great, it's been great. I mean I was so foolish
to say right before the season started that the eight
units in the AFC North four defenses, four offenses. I
was most concerned about Baltimore's defense. I mean, just flat
out wrong. Extremely well coached, they're defensive coordinators on superstar
path to be a head guy. Guys like Clowney and

(08:46):
van Ney have been better here than any stop in
their career. And then how about this little nugget. I mean,
they faced the Dolphins, who are first in offensive points
per game, right, they faced the Niners who are and
the Lions who are fifth. They couldn't face the second
team because that's Baltimore.

Speaker 1 (09:06):
They face them in practice every week.

Speaker 2 (09:07):
They faced them in practice every week, and those three
games they won one hundred and twenty seven to forty four.
I mean, it's just one thing after another.

Speaker 1 (09:16):
They're dominating great teams.

Speaker 2 (09:17):
So dominating great teams.

Speaker 3 (09:20):
And you know, with Roquan being out, you know, I
don't want to talk about him too long, but what
a phenomenal player. And you know, when you think of ball,
I mean, you think of Pittsburgh. You can think of
linebackers too, but you really think of that middle linebacker
in Baltimore.

Speaker 1 (09:33):
That Ray Lewis.

Speaker 3 (09:34):
And earlier this year, I saw a piece on ESPN
with Lewis watching film with Roquan and kind of, you know,
sharing some wisdom with him. And you hate to admit
this as a Steelers fan, but and I'm not gonna
say Roquwan is going to be Ray Lewis, but they've
kind of found that similar art type of a player
in the middle of that defense.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
Now, yes, and if people don't know the timeline, it's
kind of interesting because the Bears traded their second round pick,
which became Joe Porter Junior, to the Steelers for Chase
Claypool and then traded the Steelers pick two. Wait, I
got to screwed up. Then they trade another second round

(10:10):
pick that I think they got from Carolina or whatever
in this like the same week for Roquan Smith or
they trade I got that all screwed up. They traded
for Claypool, they traded away roquand both for second round picks. Right,
you'd much rather have Roquand, you know what I mean.
It's the bottom line.

Speaker 3 (10:27):
Yeah, Yeah, Roquan is outstanding. You really would hope that
he's in the stremous league it it would help the
Steelers a lot. If he doesn't play, that's secondary.

Speaker 2 (10:36):
You know.

Speaker 3 (10:36):
Kyle Hamilton is great but banged up, probably won't play.
Marlon Humphrey's great but banged up, probably won't play. Brandon
Stevens is okay, won't play, probably because he's banged up.
Marcus Williams is a good safety. He might just be
forced to play. But they're gonna have their hands full
with George Pickens, who Matt has three hundred and twenty
six receiving yards over the past two weeks and is
averaging twenty nine point six yards per catch over his

(10:57):
last two with Rudolph as the starting quarterback in the
and this is just outstanding. This puts into perspective how
good of a season's Pickens is having, even if it's
kind of off the radar, or has been until the
past couple of weeks. Of all wide receivers with at
least fifty targets this season, Pickets Pickens ranks second in
routes run per team, drop back, fourth in yards per target,
second in yards perception, in sixth in yards after the

(11:18):
catch per reception. He's twelveth right now in the league,
with a chance to get into the top ten. As
far as just total receiving yards is concerned. With the
bad quarterback play all year for the Steelers save the
past couple of weeks, really a really remarkable season statistically
from Pickens.

Speaker 2 (11:33):
Without question, And you know we do this every week
and if people go back, I don't know, five six
weeks ago, there were some of the bullet points around
Pickens were Now he's only caught six passes in his
last three games, or you know, like there was down
stretches too, So just imagine if he could keep this
or you know, a high portion of it going for

(11:56):
a sustained stretch in you know, a better situation.

Speaker 3 (12:01):
Ravens have fifteen different defenders with the sack this season,
just to Matta Book. Gay leads the way with thirteen
come from that defensive tackle spot, which is so valuable,
followed by Jadeveon Clowney. Really one of the better years
from Clowne. Wouldn't you say, oh, yeah, he's been outstanding
for them. Kyle van Noy comes off his couch and
then he has eight sacks for the Ravens too, and
only two defenses blitz at a higher rate than Baltimore,

(12:21):
So there's still blitz in just as much. Wink Martin
Dill's not there anymore, and there's still just a blitz
heavy team on the defensive side of the ball. A
one last note on Roquan who will potentially be out
Him and Patrick Queen have missed just a combined fifty
three snaps this season.

Speaker 1 (12:33):
So whether it's Queen kind.

Speaker 3 (12:34):
Of stepping up a little bit, or whether it's Deshaun
Phillips and the rookie Trent and Simpson playing a lot
more a lot of inexperience at that linebacker spot.

Speaker 1 (12:41):
If Queen's not out there.

Speaker 2 (12:43):
Yeah, yeah, and they're both. Queen is definitely you talked
up Roquan. Queen's having his best season, but he's definitely
Robin to Smith's batman.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
Turning our attention to the Ravens offensive side of the ball,
six yards per play is only behind the Niners and Dolphins,
and over the p three games they sit at six
point six yards per play. They average eight point nine
yards per play against Miami.

Speaker 1 (13:06):
As they ran it up on them.

Speaker 3 (13:08):
For the season, Baltimore's forty nine point four pass rate
is lowest in the league and two full percentage points
less than the thirty first ranked offense. In this regard,
I think a narrative around Lamar is he's passing the
ball a lot better this year, Matt, but the Ravens
offense is not necessarily, you know, throwing the ball like
they're Joe Burrow and the Bengals or the Vikings with
Kirk Cousins.

Speaker 2 (13:30):
Yeah, and this is kind of like our previous conversation.
I'm sure a lot of that has to do with
we're winning by thirty in the fourth quarter. You know
we're gonna run, shut it down, beat you up, bring
in Ricard an extra tight end and pound you into
the ground. But Lamar has been tremendous from the pocket.
I mean, we're not gonna see him, but he's going
to win his second MVP.

Speaker 3 (13:50):
I was just gonna ask you you think, yeah, that's
pretty much stun deal.

Speaker 2 (13:53):
Yeah. I don't know who could catch him at this point,
assuming he puts nothing else on tape. I think it's his.
He's the second youngest to win two ever, only behind
Jim Brown. You know, like he's going to the Hall
of Fame, Oh.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
No question about it.

Speaker 3 (14:08):
And I mean, yeah, the takes from his draft class
of all he's a running back. Oh, he can never
play quarterback. I mean, they just get worse, unbelievably, still
keep getting worse and worse and worse as we're further
removed from that moment and he continues to establish himself
in the NFL. Over the past two games, Jackson had
thrown for five hundred and seventy three yards and six touchdowns.
He's thrown just seven interceptions all season in four hundred
and fifty seven pass attempts. It took him just fifteen

(14:30):
games this year to set a new career high in
passing attempts fifty six more passing attempts than he has
had in a prior season.

Speaker 1 (14:37):
But it won't be Jackson.

Speaker 3 (14:39):
I know it hasn't been official, but I would just
be one of the most foolish things I could ever
see if they would start him.

Speaker 1 (14:44):
So Tyler Huntley's going to get the start.

Speaker 3 (14:45):
He started against the Steelers last year in Week seventeen,
twenty one passes attempted, completing fourteen for one hundred and
thirty yards with a touchdown and an interception. Huntley's not terrible,
but I kind of remember, you know, your sentiments for
him last year. You know, you think he was even
a little bit overrated in a lot of people's eyes.
As far as the quality backup.

Speaker 2 (15:04):
He is, yeah, I mean they don't have to change
their offense drastically. He's the same style as Lamar. That's great,
but he throws a lot of things horizontally, not a
real high degree of difficulty of throws, and he takes
a massive amount of sacks. So I think that's a
key here too, is assuming there's some backup lineman in there,

(15:25):
I think you should be able to sack him a lot.

Speaker 3 (15:28):
This is the best receiving corps that he's had Lamar.
I mean, oh, in his tenure in Baltimore, Zay Flowers
leads the Ravens and end zone targets as well as
targets on third and fourth downs. He's seeing forty two
percent of his targets coming off of play action. He's
been battling a calf injury, but he still ran a
route on just fifty four or so. He only ran
a round on fifty four percent of the dropbacks last week.
I mean, there it is again, Matt like, just a

(15:49):
nagging injury for a big time contributor on this offense.
But I mean, if you don't play Za Flowers and
you're not playing Obj, I mean you're left with Bateman
and then who else. So I mean he might just
have to go by default maybe.

Speaker 2 (16:01):
And maybe you shut him down as much as possible,
break glass in case you need him. You know that
type of thing. Just play your healthy guys as much
as well.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
Do you expect Bateman to kind of be the main
receiver on Saturday?

Speaker 2 (16:12):
I think so. And Agalar actually has been around the block,
is a you know he could fill a situation like this. Yeah, yeah,
maybe they used likely heavy a little bit heavily, but
he's important now too. With Mark Andrews out.

Speaker 3 (16:23):
That's exactly where I was going next Matt Mark Andrews
gets injured earlier in the season. I'm sitting I'm doing
podcasts with people. I'm saying, you know what, maybe kick
the tires on zach Ertz out of Arizona. Just get
somebody in here. Had him in house this entire time. Likely,
I'm not going to say he's better than Andrews, but
I think the stats say that he's playing better than

(16:44):
Andrews was this year.

Speaker 2 (16:47):
The stats are awesome. I mean, I don't know if
i'd go there, but I mean his stats are awesome.
He's a very talented player, young, he's just been blocked.
I mean, he'd have been starting since day one on
most teams.

Speaker 3 (16:59):
So you've been high on him. Disability from the jump.
Really it's just logjam by an all time great tight
end right now in the NFL. But again, it's twenty
three years old. And I mean that play on fourth down,
the one handed catch and then taking it to the
end zone. Maybe I got a little too excited saying
he's been better this year than Andrews. But the fact
it remains that this hole isn't a hole anymore, and

(17:19):
in fact, it's starting to become a bit of a
weapon that they're going to.

Speaker 2 (17:24):
They're a very tight end friendly offense and they have
two very good ones.

Speaker 3 (17:27):
And then as far as the running game is concerned,
like we said, it would probably be in their best
interest to just run the tires off of Melvin Gordon.
Don't really give Justice Hill and Gus Edwards that much
of a workload. But what another year without JK. Dobbins
for this team. I just don't think that's going to
work out for them. Injuries is just going to derail

(17:48):
that career. But Gus Edwards and Justice Hill have been
a pretty okay duo for them, haven't they.

Speaker 2 (17:53):
Yeah, they're they're fine. I mean they block one.

Speaker 1 (17:56):
As far as you go, probably, yeah.

Speaker 2 (17:59):
And Keaton Mitchell was a really exciting player that he
lost for the season. They may use a high pick
on a running back, you know.

Speaker 3 (18:06):
Could you see them using Huntley running the ball a
lot and a lot of design runs in this game,
just to you know, like we said, keep the clock moving,
keep the game moving on schedule, because you don't really
care it's hurt.

Speaker 2 (18:17):
Yeah, I guess that makes some sense. I mean, because
they do have Cunningham that they picked up from the Patriots.
You know, they plucked him off the prass room elite Cunningham.
Maybe they even get him involved just to see what
he does. I mean, they kind of know what Huntley is.
Maybe they'd be interested in seeing some of him.

Speaker 3 (18:34):
Yeah, and Cunningham same kind of player as Lamar Jackson
as far as style. So yeah, it could be a
good backup for them in years to come, a cheaper
one too. Key matchups to highlight before we get out
of here. We just talked about him, but Ravens tight
end Isaiah likely versus the Steelers. He may not play,
He might not play right, but again, Matt, I mean,
you got to play somebody, So it would be a

(18:56):
very tough matchup if he were to play for this.
Uh mash unit at safety for the Steelers. Still not
sure if Mak is going to be able to play
in this game.

Speaker 2 (19:03):
Yeah, hundred percent. So the matchups were hard for me
to do. I did put likely there, and you know,
we'll move ahead here. I put justin Mattabuke. But the
more I'm thinking.

Speaker 1 (19:12):
Of he's probably better not let him play it.

Speaker 2 (19:14):
They shouldn't let him play. He's too valuable, So coming
up with key matchups is really difficult.

Speaker 3 (19:19):
I'd still say it's pretty key for the offensive line
to get that same push they did in Seattle against Baltimore.

Speaker 2 (19:24):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (19:25):
Great, way, you know, create those lanes for Naj and
Jalen Warren and to have a successful running game again.
Steelers and Ravens. They kick off four thirty on Saturday.
Steelers get to win, then you get to kick back
and hope that the Titans beat the Jags or the
Dolphins beat the Bills on Sunday. For Matt Williamson on
Tom Offerman, thanks he has always for giving us a listen.
If the Steelers win and get in the playoffs, we'll

(19:46):
be back again next week to break down the wild
card matchup. If not, it has been a blast doing
this with you all your Matt, and I'm sure talk
to the people next year when the season starts in
twenty twenty four. Let's keep our fingers crossed for the
Steelers getting at least one more game on season, and
we'll be back again next week if that happens.

Speaker 1 (20:03):
On the Advanced Scout