Week 18 vs. Browns

Tom Opferman and Matt Williamson break down the Steelers upcoming opponent, the Cleveland Browns

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do. This is the Advanced
Scout with Tom Opferman and Matt Williams it. The Browns
are coming off a win against the Commanders. They are
seven and nine entering the season finale against Pittsburgh, who
was eight and eight and have won three straight and
five of their last six games. The Stealers are three
and four at home this year, so hoping to get

(00:21):
to five hundred with a win against the Browns there.
Cleveland is three and five on the road. Within the North,
Pittsburgh is two and three compared to the Browns three
and two, and both teams are four and seven within
the a f C. Matt I honestly thought the Browns
were a dead team watching them play that Saints game
last week or two weeks ago. Excuse me, they looked

(00:42):
like they wanted nothing to do with the season anymore.
And then they go out and they beat the Commanders. Now, yeah,
that might have been more on the Commanders side. Carson
Wentz throwing three bad picks had something to do with
that too. But one thing I would worry about a
little bit for Browns is like a Marity Cooper's come
out and said I hate the cold, and Watson has
never really played in the cold, like you're wrong town fellas,
and they kind of looked like it, you know, from

(01:03):
the South, like all their stars are not weathered. If
you're planning on having some home playoff games over the
next couple of years, it's yeah, before we get to
the Browns game, there's three things that need to go
the Steelers way for them to make the playoffs. Obviously,
beating the Browns is the one that they can control.
Will get to that a lot more in depth as
we work our way through the podcast, but just take

(01:24):
your timberature on the other two. The Jets need to
beat the Dolphins. The Bills need to beat the Patriots.
I thought the Bills beating the Patriots, if the Bills
lost last night, was gonna be or excuse me, if
the Bills one last night was going to be a
pretty easy task. Now with what's happening with Hamlin and
the state of the Bills, I know they're gonna play
all their starters against the Patriots. They have to win

(01:45):
the game still, I mean, we're recording this Tuesday night.
We don't know, you know, and we don't know how
the NFL is going to handle it with this game
just gonna evaporate Bengals, Bills, and as far as gambling
has been concerned, all the boards have taken this game
off the board, the Patriots and the Bills, so we
don't have a line for it. And not to mention,
the Chiefs play Saturday and influences things say they do

(02:06):
play it and all the stars, what's the mindset of
Buffalo out there? Like, how do you go out there
even seven days removed from that and try to play
a game and beat the Patriots? And things will change
between night and kickoff. I'm sure the NFL makes some
announcements on scheduling, and maybe they bump the playoffs back
a week. I don't know. I mean, honestly, if that
game would have been Bears Texans last night, they probably

(02:28):
say at that point, um, hopefully there's Hamlin news that's
positive by then too, and maybe you know, the team's
in a better mindset. And so I don't know how
to speak on that, but I guess worst case scenario
is the Bills backups challenge the Patriots that need it.

(02:50):
I mean, that's worst case scenario for the Steelers, you know.
I mean, I still think that game could be competitive jv.
Bills versus Spatriot starters agree with that ready on anybody,
you know? I mean, so he still got a shot.
And then the other one Dolphins Jets, Jets need to
be the Dolphins. Who's the Dolphins quarterback? I think it's
gonna be Scott Thompson. I think it's Hetty broke his

(03:10):
finger in that game, so I don't think he's gonna pinky,
But yes, that still sucks it brutal right, So they're
not even mentioned to his name at this point, right,
and Thompson can run a little bit as a quarterback
at em Yeah, a little bit so perspective. But then
on the other side of things, the Jets. You need
the Jets to win. Do the Jets want to win?
They're eliminated, they can't do anything. But I will say this,

(03:33):
it's a good thing for the Steelers. They're playing a
division rival and a team where they can say, hey,
if the Jets don't go to the playoffs, the Fish
ain't going to the playoffs either. Yeah. I think that's
one of the reasons that Week seventeen eighteen, these past
couple of weeks or years have been division games because
they're less likely to throw in the towel play spoiler. Yeah,
I mean the Browns could throw in the towel that
I don't think they want to, you know, right matter

(03:54):
with Steelers Ravens and never throw in the towel. So
I think that's a good thing the league league has done.
And then Jets specifically, I don't think so Law is
gonna say who's gonna rest? You know what I mean?
And they're trying to build something exactly, know what I mean.
They have a terrible taste in their mouth with how
the season and they've lost six straight games, five in
the row. So those in Miami, Yeah, so SLA is

(04:16):
probably preaching like, let's get a win under our belts
to go into the off season on have a have
a good thing to reflect on as we build towards.
A little nugget for you too, no team in NFL
history has gone oh for December and gone to the playoffs.
Miami and Jets have not won a game in December.
The Jets are out of it. But you're right, serious
history in the Browns and the Steelers, this great series

(04:38):
started in nineteen fifty. Pittsburgh leads all time seventy seven,
sixty one and one. After losing to Cleveland in Week
three earlier this year, um Steelers did sweep Cleveland. Last year,
the Browns won the first eight meetings and sixteen of
the first eighteen games these two teams ever played. In fact,
of the first forty one games, Cleveland and the Steelers
played the Browns one thirty two of them. But then
the seventies came and the pendulum swung drastically in the

(04:59):
other direction. There was a stretch from December of nineteen
seventy two until October of eighty three that Pittsburgh was victorious,
and eighteen of twenty two games played after that, though
went back to Cleveland. Ten of the next twelve went
in the Browns favor. But then during a fifty game
period between January in October, basically, by the way, that's
basically the entire life of me. It's like two years

(05:22):
of me not living. Pittsburgh had a winning streaks during
that span of seven games, six games, twelve games, four games,
four games, and an eight game winning streak in which
the Browns were only able to muster up one tie
but no wins in that period. In those fifty games,
the Browns won just seven times, and they lost both
playoff meetings. They've had three players fifty games seven times

(05:45):
seven and forty three. Uh. And then and you're familiar
with you playing twice a year the second time round,
there should be no surprises. But Pittsburgh has won two
of the playoff meetings. The last one, of course, we
all remember the snap from pounds and going over Ben's
head in the end zone and it was all downhill
from there as the Browns beat the Steelers in the
post season, getting started with a quick on that you
just mentioned. Ben. One of my favorite Browns Ben thing

(06:08):
is it wasn't long ago where he had the most
wins in that stadium. I mean, that's ridiculous. Baker was
the one that right because he plays eight or nine
games there as opposed to one for years. Still took
him like a couple of years in the Bakers one
game in that building a year and he owned the
win title. Ridiculous. I think Brady had something like that

(06:30):
up in Buffalo too. At one time in the span
of Brady playing there had more wins than any quarterback
that Buffalo is us. It's just insane. Ben's ownage of
the Browns, especially when the Browns could have had him
all along local I was there. I was in Cleveland
working for the Browns. Ben's rookie year. All right, the

(06:50):
Browns offensively, they ranked fifteenth in e p A. They
are thirteen per drop pack in fifth in rushing e
p A. But those are the season long total. Deshaun
Watson to go over as Cleveland starting quarterback after serving
his suspension in week thirteen. From week thirteen to the
present day, the Browns offense is a So that's ten
spots in the wrong direction per dropback. They're flooring it

(07:15):
in the wrong direction as far as that's concerned. It's
sixteenth and rushing, so their rushing is taking a hit
as well. Everything about the offense has gone south since
Deshan's com the guy that doesn't get enough credit. And
if people watch the tape, I think there's teams out
there looking their chops on him right now. Yeah, I mean,
I think if you don't get car or Garoppolo, like

(07:35):
the Jets have him this year, right right, or maybe
Carolina or you know what I mean, or Indie or Washington,
you know, like he's a really nice consolation prize and
then maybe use a second round pick on a guy
or something. So precent really kept that thing afloat despite
some harsh circumstances. Uh. One thing I wanted to touch
about with the Steelers side of things on the defense.

(07:58):
E p A is not a huge fan of a run.
Their seventeenth as far as expected points added are concern
but the seventh best run defense traditional statistic wise in
the NFL. It's a bit of a weird discrepancy is
I don't exactly know why, to be honest with you,
you know, and you can, you can narrow it down
and there the obviously goes up post by if you
just look at ep A post by. But um, the

(08:20):
one thing I know that they're hard on the Steelers
season long is all the long completions, and it's been
a while since we've seen that. But they also have
a face to passing team, so I don't know what
to quite make of that. But some receivers lit them
up early in the season. Cleveland averages five points. Yeah,
we'll get to him in a second. Cleveland averages five
point three yards per play, but just four point five
over their past three weeks of Yeah, sixteenth in points

(08:44):
per game twenty one point seven, but that's gone down
in the Watson era to nineteen giveaways, which is the
ninth fewest in the NFL. They have ten picks and
nine fumbles. Uh. Sticking with the Shaan for just one
more second, he ranks thirty seven amongst all quarterbacks that
have played a hundred fifty plays or more in e
p A, is just ahead of Zack Wilson and just
behind Carson Wentz. I've seen Deshean play from time to time.

(09:07):
Like I mentioned, I watched that Saints game pretty much,
and it's entire I don't think it's just rust, to
be honest with yet, I don't know. He looks like
he's swimming out of his depth right now. Yes, it
was a little better against Washington. It wasn't embarrassing against
Washington before that has a bad description here. Before that, yeah,
he was very bad. And the opening game was against Houston,

(09:28):
the former team seven hundred days off. I mean it's
exactly seven hundred days off, so he didn't expect much.
But I expected him to be of the Texans Watson
that we saw, and he's not right now at all,
not even close. More juxtaposition between him and Brissette Brisetts
passes were completed. Only fifty six point seven percent of

(09:49):
Deshaun Watson's passes are finding the hands of his targets.
Um On average, the ball comes out of Watson's hands
three point two seconds, says, the highest number among all
qualifying quarterbacks. But he only throws the ball seven point
one yards down the field, so he holds onto it
forever and they dumps it off. Yeah, he has no timing,
he has no rhythm, he's not executing the plays as designed.
Then he's holding it double clutch in second, guessing himself,

(10:12):
and then not throwing accurately. You know. So none of
that's good now. And that's seven point one yards downfield
per target is tied for twenty four amongst quarterbacks in
the NFL. Browns had nine net passing yards at the
end of the first half last week. It's the Washington
Commanders miserable and it got a little better. I mean,
that's that's one completion nine total and a half is bad.

(10:34):
But they do have a pass catcher that hurts the Steelers.
At least he did in week three at over a
hundred yards. He's responsible Mary Cooper for thirty nine point
four percent of all the Browns air yards. Only five
pass catchers in the league are responsible for a higher
percentage of their team's air yards than a Marii Cooper.
So he's a true number one and he's good, but
he's not Davante Adams good, you know. I mean, he's
a he's a very good player. Um the joke who

(10:55):
has been hurt and that influences that a little bit.
He's been good for them. People's Jones is a decent player.
That is a maybe equality two would be a high
end three. But it's a little bit like the Raiders
where it's Cooper and shrub Jacobs and Adams, you know,
like many more guys to evolve you, no question. And
we've talked at nauseum on this podcast and anywhere that

(11:18):
you speak about the Steelers. They stink against number one
wide receivers and not just number one wide receivers. The
Coopers too, like they get him in the league, have
torn the Steelers up. They did a really good job
against Vante Adams just a couple weeks. Maybe that's the
sun peeking out over the horizon. Maybe that was the fluke.
Either way, I'm encouraged to see that be their last
heavy hitter that they went up against, and hopefully there's

(11:41):
improvement this week than Week three dealing with them Mark Yeah,
and really the second half of the season they haven't
dealt with many top tent like the only one that
really right. I mean, maybe you lump a lava in there.
It's a little world to put them there. But London,
they're too young yet, right, I mean, I can't do
Pittman can especially consider how the Colts are built right now.
It doesn't matter who there was, me e E d J. Moore,

(12:02):
but the Panthers are miserable right right right, So they
haven't been tested. But maybe that was flukey early in
the year. Who knows. It's probably something we'll figure out
next year. And you know how they addressed a corner
position in the off season. We mentioned Watson holding onto
the ball forever. He was sacked four times in Week seventeen.
Steelers blitz like crazy. It's it's almost officially blitzberg. I
think we can say only five defenses are blitzing at
a higher rate than the Steelers. I think that pressure

(12:23):
is gonna get home a lot against Deshaun Watson, just
what we were saying with him kind of being out
of his depth and just being out of his element
is timing being off. He's gonna look lost in that
pocket a lot against the Steelers pass tracts. I would
think so. And I know he's a good athlete. He
could be elusive and all those things. But again, he's
not playing on time, he's not playing comfortably, and the

(12:44):
ball is in his hands a long time, which is
probably gonna result in sacs. And I think t J
starting to really turn the corner. He hasn't been able
to rush the pass or times a game because the
teams they've played, but I think he could be an
explosion spot. Now. The identity of this Brown's offense to
me is clearly running the football. Nick Chubb one of
the best running backs, maybe the best running back in
the NFL. Only seven offenses throw the ball at a

(13:06):
lower percentage of their snaps than Cleveland. And I still
think they're not running the ball enough. Yeah, I mean
they need to just pant. Yeah, they need to be first, second,
or third run attempts are concerned voluminous running. And I
like to say, just even if Chubb has a series
where he doesn't get anything, and you have to punt
right back to the ground in the next game. And
I know Chubb's notice will be better than Hunt, but

(13:26):
Hunt doesn't see the field nearly enough. I mean, if
you were voluminously and creatively enough, yeah, right, if you're
voluminously running the ball with two backs and Chubb was
getting those behind a really good old line, it might
make Watson's life a little easier. I questioned the coach. Honestly,
there to be. I think his seat's pretty hot too.
I think it has to be, especially with just the
way that the team looked terrible when Watson came back,

(13:50):
and bad usage of guys like Kareem Hunt. He's not
utilizing the team like that they should be, which is
by feeding the number two leading rusher in the NFL.
With one thousand, four and forty eight yards. He got
the Steelers pretty good last time they played. He had
over five yards. He had about five yards per carry,
a couple of big runs there, and no one in
the league has more big runs than the Cleveland Browns.

(14:11):
Cleveland's twenty runs of twenty or more this year. They
hit the home but they don't use much in the
passing game. But you gotta be encouraged with how the
Steelers have played against the run this and especially against
the guy. They just met the league's leading rusher a
couple of weeks back in that Raiders game, and they
stimied him. So maybe the runner up can get stimmy
this time. Have some more familiarity. They got torched by

(14:32):
the Ravens on the ground the first meeting, they were
amazing against the second meeting. Maybe a similar rebound here
from the Brown's first meeting to this one. And it's
thought as bad as the Ravens passing attack where they
don't even use wide receivers, I'm sure they won't. I
bet they make the Sean beat them the way he's playing.
I think that's a sound game plan. One last thing,
The fourth quarter is gonna probably be pretty key here.

(14:54):
Pretty much has been all year for Steelers games, but
the Brown's average six point eight points scored per fourth
quarter of play on these seven teams are better. But
Pittsburgh gives up just four point nine points on average
in the fourth quarter of games, which is eighth best
in the NFL, So it'll be best on best when
it comes to the fourth quarter. There, Brown's offense for
a Steelers defense, and I think in this case in particular,

(15:14):
it comes a lot down to the Browns been running
on you, even running on you, and then Rubb starts,
you know, busting off where you see down. But the
Steelers are playing both these teams are high in time
of possession. I think that'll be key here. But it's
been rough one the Browns lately, because they're not getting
first down. Yeah, it's such a good point about Chubb
playing running back like that. It just wears you down
later in the games and you miss one tackle on

(15:35):
the fourth quarter and he takes into the house. I mean,
that's what's different about the Steelers running backs, you know.
I mean the Ravens got their ask kicked by Naji,
like they didn't want to tackle that. They didn't want
to tackle that dude in the fourth quarter last week.
He was a beast and Chubbs. If you had a
Chubb's breakaway ability, he probably would exactly flipping over to
the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland's defense comes in
at twenty two in e p A. The Browns are

(15:56):
eighth in defensive EPA. Per dropback, they are dead lad
fruit expected points added against the run, So there's a
clear blueprint there. Oh, very good against the past top
ten there abysmal. They're as bad as you were last
year against the run. Steelers like watching Steelers last year
of run defense, big chunk runs blown off the ball.

(16:16):
Even when the season started, I thought their defensive tackle
group was about the worst in the league. And now
they've been hitting hard, really hard on the second level
of linebackers too, and the defense sees the six highest
percentage of run plays against them, So the books out
on them. Teams, you know, run the ball against Cleveland
and you'll be just fine. Script for Pittsburgh, Yeah, especially lately.
Nineteen takeaways is good for in the league. Eleven picks,

(16:39):
eight fumbles recovered their eighteenth and points per game allowed
with twenty two point one. In terms of net passing
yards per game, Steelers offense four and Cleveland's defense is seventh,
so you definitely probably want to avoid three this game.
It's the same formula you used to win the past
couple of weeks. I don't see why it should be
very complicated for the Steelers, and I don't think you

(17:00):
have to. You know, put Kenny in bubble rap and
so they don't do anything, you know. I mean, I
think he's passed that in his career. But the script
is pretty obvious as far as protecting. Can you pick
at the scripts pretty obvious as well. Find where number
is and make sure he doesn't get anywhere near your quarterback.
Fifteen sacks on the year from Miles Garrett fourth in
the NFL with one game left to play. No other
Brown has more than three sacks on the season. He's

(17:22):
one man show right now. And I know, people what
about Clowney. Clowney is not a real pass rusher, run stop,
slash disruptor. He makes a lot of mistakes, slash always
injured because you can never see the count on mercenary
team to team. But he can be disruptive. They can
line him all over the place. But he's not a
pure edge bender like people think he is. They're really

(17:44):
hurt him with Jokban out in the middle of that,
amongst others. But I think he is a bright future,
you know. I like his versatility. I was jealous when
they got him out of the draft. That was a
little jealous, but they got him in the second round. Yeah,
Steelers need an inside linebacker. They do we'll do that
on a different podcast that We're not gonna get too
into the weeds. They're, like we said, game plans really clear.
Steelers rush for a hundred nine yards last week against Baltimore.

(18:06):
Cleveland's defense is surrendering four point eight yards per Russia attempt.
Only six defenses are worse on the year, So you
know you can run against them. You're gonna pass. You
have to in the NFL selectively passed. And you know, right,
it's a pretty good secondary. I mean, I think Denzel
Ward is a really good corner and Newsome's a really
good compliment to him, and I like del Pitting. The
signing of Johnson a couple of years ago, I think

(18:28):
was a really good move for a team that's trying
to compete. Just hasn't panned out record wise for them,
But I really like what they have in the back end.
I do too, and they've invested in them heavily. There's
a lot of first and second round it's panning out,
and for people who don't know, the Browns, for better
or worse, are as hot as big of an analytics
driven organization as there is in the league right now.

(18:50):
Everybody's ivy league in that organization Harvard GM Penn for
the coach. I think I might have that backwards, but
I don't know that thought in my head. But you're right.
But where I was going it is analytics have driven
teams to stop the pass. Off the pass. Well, that's fine.
I mean, they they're invested in pass rushers and defensive backs,
but they're getting gouged on the ground. You know, like

(19:11):
the adjustment is going to go too far. You can
go too far. I think in the league in general too,
it's become such a pass happy league that there is
a market inefficiency where you can exploit on the ground
a lot of luminous You're seeing teams do that and
stay afloat and races like Panthers have no business playing
a week seventeen game to win their division. Giants shouldn't
be in the playoffs. But they run the hell out
of the ball and they run it down teams throats
that aren't really built to stop the run. Absolutely, And

(19:33):
we talked about this Atlanta week. I thought they were
the worst roster in the league coming in, but they're
still and they're still won games and kept it going
for a while. Key matchups the highlight four Browns and Steelers.
Brown's wide receiver a Marii Cooper versus Steelers cornerback Stealers
cornerbacks don't travel, so you won't you know, see a
particular match up. But he torched them last time through

(19:55):
the air. You got to shut them down because just
like the Raiders, if you can shut down Coop and
you can shut down Chubb, you'll be doing probably win right.
And then left tackle Dan Moore versus Brown's defensive end
Miles Scarrett. Just a broad lock Dan More. Yeah, that's
a problem. I mean, you're gonna see Gentry on that
side a lot. You're gonna see chips. Steelers backs are
good in protection too, so um, yeah, he's a problem.

(20:17):
But they're used to one o'clock kickoff at Acreshure Stadium
for the season finale, the Steelers taken on the Browns.
This is our probably our last podcast. Probably no stranger
things have happened. In fact, just last year, stranger things happen.
Then we need happen this week. But let's help something,
Let's help things come break in the right direction. Though
maybe we do one more together, but if not, it's

(20:39):
been a great year. I'm sure, we'll be back again
next year. Now you're getting a little ridiculously. Just beat
the Browns though on Sunday. You can only control what
you can control, and that's what the Steelers can do.
Go out there and get a win against Cleveland. From
Matt Williamson and Tom Offerman, As always, we appreciate you
guys listening to the Advanced Scout