Week 7 @ Rams

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Upperman and Mac
Williamsit Steelers are three and two and coming off there
bye week, the Rams beat the Cardinals to get back
to five hundred. They now sit at three and three,
and Matt, I'm a little surprised by the Rams being
three and three to start the season. I thought that
the bottom was going to completely fall out from under them. Yeah,
and I also think I doubted Matt Stafford's ability to

(00:24):
bounce back from his injury the way that he has,
but he's played pretty well. Yeah, and the team is
a five hundred team, But that's a three and three
record that features losses against the Bengals, the Niners, and
the Eagles, and there's a win against Seattle on the
road as part of their three wins. So that's a
strong three and three.

Speaker 1 (00:42):
Yeah. I agree one hundred percent. And I think it
goes to show that I think mcvays a big time
head coach, and you know, a coach quarterback combination is really, really,
really valuable. You know, they as long as that's in there,
they're going to be a competitive team. They're really straight build,
as I'm sure a lot of people know. I mean,

(01:02):
they haven't used the first round pick since Jared Goff.
I mean that's the last first round pick they've added,
and they won their Super Bowl and they went all in,
and I thought this year was going to be the
credit cards came due, and it's still might. I mean,
they have, you know, five or six really good players,
but other than that, there's no middle class to this team.
But with a coaching quarterback, you can compete. And they're
beating bad teams and losing the good teams.

Speaker 2 (01:24):
Well, you know, it's funny. They haven't had a first
round pick since Jared Goff, but they're still playing the
players that they do draft in the draft. I mean
a lot of their rookies get in. I mean, our
lads right now has four of their rookies listed as starters,
and then there's a couple more on the defensive side
of the ball that gets some action as well. So
despite the fact that they don't have high capitol picks,
they're using their draft picks and they're letting rookies play
and they're successful for the most part. I mean, put

(01:47):
Nakua at the very top of that list.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
Yeah, exactly. So Steve Avilia was their first pick. He's
a starting guard. He was an early second and he's
looks like a long time starter. A good pick. And
then they've made a ton of picks, you know, like
fifths and six and sevens galore just throwing a bunch
stuff a fan to see what sticks. And you're right,
Puka obviously sticking. And their defensive end Young is a

(02:11):
really good player too. So you make a lot of picks,
you're bound to hit on a few.

Speaker 2 (02:15):
Let's get our quick series history under our belts before
we move on to the Rams and scouting them for
this week. The Steelers and Rams have faced off twenty
seven times, including in Super Bowl fourteen. The Rams lead
this series fifteen to ten and two. This series started
way back in nineteen thirty.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
Eight, a little misleading on the series.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
When the Rams defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates thirteen to seven.
Between that game and their matchup in nineteen seventy eight,
the Rams record against Pittsburgh was twelve to one to two.
Since that point, the Steelers have dominated, going nine to three,
including the Super Bowl victory. Pittsburgh currently as a four
game winning streak against the Rams, with the most recent
matchup in twenty nineteen, going in the steelers favor seventeen
to twelve. So it's been a while since these two

(02:55):
teams have met.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
Back then, the Rams are super in my lifetime. The
Steelers are basically owned it. Yeah, pretty much, you know
what I mean.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
But it's been four years since they've seen each other,
and the teams are just completely different from what they
were back then.

Speaker 1 (03:08):
Absolutely.

Speaker 2 (03:09):
That was the year when Duck Odgers was playing for
the Steelers and Ben got injured and the Rams were
kind of hitting that peak as far as the before
they hit their big Super Bowl run.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
Besides Aaron Donald, there really is hardly as left.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
From that era Rams offense, because I think that's the
most formidable side of the ball for this team. It
averages five point six yards per play. Only five offenses
are better, and Pittsburgh defense gives up five point six
yards per play, so that should go really well. The
Rams are twelfth in points per game with twenty three,
their seventh in yards per game three hundred and sixty
seven yards per game, but towards the top in passing yardage,

(03:42):
and they're about middle of the pack in rushing offense,
and no team in the league uses single personnel more
than the Rams, Matt, You're only going to see one
tight end and one running back out there. They use
it about ninety four percent of the time.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
Yeah, So, as you said, I mean, there's not a
team or an offense in the entire league that is
in this personnel package more than the Rams are in
eleven with one back, one tight end, three receivers, and
those three receivers are now Puka top and two two
at well, Higbee's almost always the tight end. I mean,
the backup hardly even plays. And we'll get the running

(04:15):
back situation. But it's a complete mess right now. You know,
they made three running back moves today on Tuesday because
their top two guys are out and Evans looks like
the starter maybe, but he's only played six snaps. So
that's what you're gonna get.

Speaker 2 (04:28):
Yeah, let's get to that right now. Actually, because three
games that the Rams won this year, they've ran the
ball a total of one hundred and four times, that's
thirty four points seven times per game, and their three
losses they run at just forty nine times sixteen point
three times per game, so almost half as much when
they lose. Are they not running the football, and Karen Williams,
he's been pacing the Rams running backs. He's played three

(04:49):
hundred and thirty seven snaps. Ronnie Rivers is next in line,
but he's only seen the field for forty plays this year.

Speaker 1 (04:54):
It's an the snaps for back that's like nausey rookie years.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
Kylon Willie Yeah, yeah, but both of them most like unavailable.
As you said, they just went out and they signed
a bunch.

Speaker 1 (05:03):
Of players like three running Yeah.

Speaker 2 (05:05):
Darryl Henderson who used to be a part of the
room there. So they're throwing stuff at the wall, like
you mentioned. And the reason why is because the projected
starter before today, and I'm sure he probably will still
probably get first crack out. I think maybe is Zach Evans,
but he's only played six snaps so far.

Speaker 1 (05:20):
He's a rookie.

Speaker 2 (05:21):
And so when the Rams win, they run the ball.
But yeah, who's going to run the ball for them
this week?

Speaker 1 (05:25):
And I think that's a really good stat about their
running versus you know, winning versus losing. Yeah, and that's
true for a lot of teams. You know, you close
teams out by running the ball. But last week was
really interesting too, in that they hardly ran the ball
at all in the first half. I think it was
like three cold runs something like that. And they go
into halftime with the lead, and then they called eight

(05:46):
runs in a row, almost all to william I think,
all to Williams to open the half and put the
Cardinals away, you know, so they can do both and
McVeigh really schemes it up well. But if you're one
of those believers of backs don't matter, it's gonna be
challenged this week. I mean, it could really matter.

Speaker 2 (06:05):
If it's just a plug and play kind of thing, right.

Speaker 1 (06:07):
Especially like in protection. I mean, this guy's a rookie,
he's played six snaps.

Speaker 2 (06:10):
Well, and Karen Williams, you know, it's not like just
some middle of the road back is out for the Rams.
Like you said, his workload is unbelievably. He's also the
fourth leading rusher in the NFL. Has been very effective
for them. So Steelers not only catch a break where
the Rams don't have anybody to kind of execute the
game plan that they want to offensively, but they also
are without a playmaker on an offensive side of the ball.

Speaker 1 (06:32):
And I mentioned protection. I think it's especially important because,
as you said, they live in eleven personnel, so those
three receivers aren't blocking anybody. They're going out on routes,
of course, but Higbee also goes out on routes a
very high percentage of the time and hasn't been getting
the football since cups back, but he's still not protecting.
So that leaves one of these backs either someone that

(06:54):
got there today or six snap rookie guy to help
chip on TJ. Smith, et cetera. And their line's not
very good.

Speaker 2 (07:02):
Higgey has run a round on eighty seven percent of
Stafford's dropbacks this year. He's only been taking number only
targeted fourteen percent of those routes, though, so I mean,
maybe you could sacrifice him going out for they're.

Speaker 1 (07:11):
Gonna have to change what they do either way.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
Yeah, if you're not going to throw the ball to him,
might as well cut back from eighty seven percent of
the time he runs a round. Stafford has sacked two
point seven times per game. That's the thirteenth most in
the league. So despite the offensive line not being the best,
it's not like they're abysmal and he's getting sacked at
the time he drops back to pass, it's not looking
like the New York Giants out there.

Speaker 1 (07:30):
No, And part of it's because he's been around the
block so much. He knows where things are coming. He's smart,
he's certainly tough and will hold the ball, but his
time to throw is not super high. And you know,
sacks can also be a quarterback stat well.

Speaker 2 (07:41):
Off quarterbacks with at least fifty passing attempts. Only to
and Kirk Cousins are passing for more yards per game
than Matthew Stafford this year. Stafford's average depth of target
is the sixth highest in the league. Only thirty eight
point nine percent of Stafford's yardage has come after the catch,
which is the third lowest percentage in the league. Stafford
putting up a hundred yards so far this year. He's
just two yards behind Kirk Cousins for second in the NFL,

(08:05):
which is third in the league. And he only has
six touchdowns and five interceptions though, so touchdowns aren't really
translating for matt Staffords.

Speaker 1 (08:13):
No far, but he's dropped last week and I think
they're bound to. You know, he'll be fine. I mean,
in terms of the touchdown stuff, I think he's been
a little unlucky.

Speaker 2 (08:23):
Are you surprised at him being able to come back
after that injury and it kind of bounce back to
top ten form like he has.

Speaker 1 (08:29):
Yes, and I'll take it even a step further. I
mean I thought he might retire. I mean that that's.

Speaker 2 (08:33):
Called I won my Super Bowl. I'm done.

Speaker 1 (08:36):
I think his arm injury was really similar to Ben right,
you know, and he is a cannon like Ben did.
And he's still throwing it really really well. And part
of this is by default, but I think he's the
best quarterback in the NFC right now. I mean it's
Hurts and Dak and not much out. I mean, it's
a bad group, but he's still playing at a very
high level.

Speaker 2 (08:56):
Yeah. I mean there's not one person that comes to
my mind. I mean, satistically speaking, maybe Kirk, but maybe
wins just don't transit Stafford. Yeah, I'm sure you would.
So that's a good point, Matt. I think he probably
is at the top of that thround and he was
a couple of years ago when he won the Super Bowl.
So yeah, Stafford kind of forgotten about during his tree

(09:17):
is for sure, as well as the receivers that he's
thrown the ball to. Cooper Cuples back it was the
second game last week against the Cardinals, he received forty
three percent of Stafford's targets. UH. In that game, Cup
played one hundred percent of the snaps compared to ninety
six percent for the other wide receiver, Puka Nakua. Based
off EPA, Cup has the NFL's third best He was

(09:38):
the NFL's third best pass catcher in Week six. Poka
naku was targeted twenty five percent of the time last week.
For the season to Cou's team target chairs the fourth
highest in the NFL amongst all receivers that have run
at least seventy five routes, and he's still averaging ninety
nine point seven receiving yards per game, which is sixth
highest in the NFL. Steelers have had a lot of
trouble in their secondary Matt. This is the thing that

(09:59):
worries me the most about this matchup. We just talked
about Stafford and then these two wide receivers who have
been torching teams all year long. UH, Baltimore, do they
have a number one wide receiver? I don't know yet.
But other than that, other than that game, every number
one receiver that you could look at and say, oh,
that's a dude. I use to Cooper to Adams eight

(10:20):
against the Steelers secondary. Now you got Cooper Cup, who
when he was last healthy, had one of the best
historic seasons in the NFL. And now you got this
guy who looks like Cooper Cup part two, you know,
stealing a guy from a smaller school in the late rounds.
And now Pooka Naku has taken off and running. So
they've got two number one caliber receivers and Cooper Cup
is top three, top four in the league when he's healthy.

Speaker 1 (10:42):
Yeah, I do, I'm much to add, but it's definitely
the advantage that the best RAMS advantage for sure is
attacking the Steeler corners with both those guys. And if
I forget the number off the top of my head,
but people probably remember anyone plays fantasy football, remembers Nakula
is getting like twenty t it's a game while couples out.
I was crazy as a rookie burst on the scene,

(11:03):
and now cups them back. The coup is taking a
back seat, but it's still the two of them getting
every seventy percent of the target share. I mean, they're
throwing to those guys over and over them.

Speaker 2 (11:13):
Do you have to worry about like Scronic or at
Well at all, like the Factor album.

Speaker 1 (11:17):
In a while, at Well's the three and he's the burner.
He's very very small, but he's a big play waiting to.

Speaker 2 (11:24):
Happen now with I think a lot of people are
worried about who's going to cover Cooper Cup. It's not
really like that with the Steelers. If we said all that,
they're a left right team, so it's really up to McVeigh,
which is to decide who covers Cooper Cup, which.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
He's gonna pick and choose.

Speaker 2 (11:41):
So, like Matt, if you're a team like the Steelers
that has a left right philosophy we don't follow, do
you get tempted to kind of break that for a
scenario like this because I think back to again, I
don't know, right, yeah, but I mean just to let
the other coach kind of manipulate the chess pieces on
the board and dictate who's covering the best player on
the field that doesn't say well.

Speaker 1 (12:01):
No, especially considering how poorly, frankly the Steelers secondary is playing.
Not name Menka. And I'm not including Porter in that
because I have high hopes for him and I think
he'll play a lot. What you do know is because
they're an eleven personnel all the time, a fifth or
sixth defensive back is going to be on the field
all the time too. And I would assume that's Porter.

(12:23):
Like everyone's making a big fuss, Why is I'm Porter starting?
He might play ninety five percent.

Speaker 2 (12:27):
Of snap just because of the team that they're playing.

Speaker 1 (12:29):
Yeah, and so basically he probably will be the left
outside corner. But they're gonna test him. I mean, he's
still unproven. That is worrisome. But the Steelers defensive have
dealt with this forever. You know. You know that whether
it's McVeigh or whoever, they know where your corners are
at and they'll attack them accordingly. That doesn't mean you
don't help them.

Speaker 2 (12:50):
Let's turn the page and look at the Rams defense
as a defense that gives up five point two yards
per play. They're twelfth in the league in points per
game allowed with nineteen their middle of the pack in
yards per game allowed. They allowed two hundred and eight
yards through the air, that's thirteenth in the league. They
do allow one hundred and twenty two yards on the
ground so far, which is twenty second in the league,
and they only have five takeaways, three picks, two fumbles.

(13:11):
Two of those three picks are from our old friend
at Kello Witherspoon.

Speaker 1 (13:13):
No, yeah, and if.

Speaker 2 (13:14):
It wasn't for him playing here before that, he I
don't know if you could name a single other player
on this defense not named Aaron Donald. We get a
little cheat code here in Pittsburgh because we were familiar
with a Kello, but it is a nameless defense outside
of potentially the greatest player of all time in the
defensive side of the ball.

Speaker 1 (13:32):
Yeah, and you mentioned not a lot of big plays,
not a lot of sacks, not a lot of takeaways,
a lot of bend, but don't break because if I
just looked at their snap counts really recently, and there's
like twelve guys that are playing all the snaps and
then there's a big drop, so they're playing all the
same dudes, and they're rotating like one guy in and out.
And besides Donald, and trust me, I take pride in

(13:54):
knowing the league pretty darn well, there's maybe three or
four of those twelve that I can speak intelligently on
and not just say he's a six round pick that
is learning because That's what the whole defense is is
young dudes and they're trying to find answers. The one
guy did want to highlight though, is Young the edge roushers. Yeah,

(14:15):
he looks like I don't say he's the pooka the defense,
but he's a definite keeper rookie. And Jones the linebacker
is a high quality player that this doesn't get a
lot of name recognition, but I can assure you there's
not a snap I bet all year that Donald's not
getting doubled or yes, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (14:33):
Yeah, Kobe Turner another rookie that's playing on the front
along with Jonah Williams. Those are the helpers for Aaron
Donald right now in their defensive line. Yeah, it's just
not going to cut it. No, and no one's going
to be fearful of Kobe Turner yet, at least Jonah
Williams at all. So I'm sure that's the Steelers game
plan is the double triple, quadruple team. Aaron Donald, you
mentioned not that many sacks, only ten total for the

(14:56):
team through six games, and five and a half of
those are from Byron Young, who you highlighted and Aaron Donald. However,
last week Josh Jobs was deemed pressured on fifty percent
of his dropbacks. That was the Rams highest pressure rate
of any game this season. So hopefully they didn't figure
something out against the Cardinals.

Speaker 1 (15:13):
I think the Cardinals might just come back to Earth.

Speaker 2 (15:15):
Yeah, I agree with that as well. Only the Giants, Bears,
and Texans are sacking opposing quarterbacks on a lower percentage
of their dropbacks than the Rams are. The Rams didn't
allow a running back to run for more than forty
yards last week, which is also a little bit of
change in their trend because that has been the way
to attack the Rams defense. They have, like I said,
given up one hundred and twenty two yards per game

(15:35):
on the ground.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
And that's a little misleading too, because James Connor wasn't
there for Arizona and they're playing a bunch of backups
and trying kind of like what the Rams are doing
this week, they're piecing together their backfield. I think that's
more of a one off in terms of just winning
at the line of scrimmage in the run game and
pressuring doubs. They haven't done it the rest of the
season except for that.

Speaker 2 (15:54):
Game really, Steelers and Viking. So the only offense is
yet to score a rushing touchdown, and Pittsburgh has the
he was rushing attempts inside the five yard line of
any NFL offense. In fact, every play the Steelers have
run inside the five yard line so far this year
has been a called pass play. You got to change
that against this Rams team. Yeah, not to say that
the Rams are gonna to steal what you just said.
They don't have a bunch of chance. Bailey's out there

(16:16):
to cover you. You should be able to pass the ball
as well against them, But they're vulnerable on the ground.

Speaker 1 (16:20):
And that's that slightly misleading too. And this isn't a compliment.
Yours haven't been within the five yard line very much
as year either. It's hard to have a lot of
runs if you're not close to the goal line.

Speaker 2 (16:29):
Well, here's the stat will wrap up.

Speaker 1 (16:31):
The goal line'd be good before the.

Speaker 2 (16:32):
Key matchups, the stat will wrap up with That was
just a nightmare stat as far as I'm concerned. The
Steelers average offensive drive has just four point nine plays
run in it. It's really five plays you get to
see when the Steelers touch the ball. They give you
three six games or five games.

Speaker 1 (16:49):
For the Steelers so far this year they give you three.

Speaker 2 (16:52):
Yeah, you get three of them. Four point nine plays run.

Speaker 1 (16:58):
Isn't that hard to imagine?

Speaker 2 (17:00):
No, but it is hard to imagine. But the positive thing, Matt,
it has to get better from here. I don't know
how it can possibly get much worse.

Speaker 1 (17:07):
I mean, there is probably a drive or two. I
know there's like one drive at the end of a half.

Speaker 2 (17:11):
Where you kneeled, so that counts as one play. But
still this.

Speaker 1 (17:15):
Isn't one game sample size. I mean we're in the
middle of October now, you need to have drives more
than five plays.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
Our key matchups for this one rams wide receivers Cooper
Cup and Pooka and Akupa versus the Steelers cornerbacks. And
like we said, it's not a matter of Joey Porter Jr.
You take Pooka and Peterson, you take Cooper, You're gonna
have guys have to you know, Yeah, you're gonna have
to a bunch of guys across the board and that
defensive backfield are gonna have to contribute in stopping those two.

(17:42):
I'll be quite honest with you, I have my doubts
that they're gonna be able to stop those two, and
I think that's gonna be the reason why the Rams
end up winning the game.

Speaker 1 (17:49):
To me, the pass rush is gonna have I think
the Steelers pass rush has as big an advantage as
Cup McVeigh and the Kupa have into Steelers corners. So
can that be the difference or do they just slant
you to death and you can't get home on the
pass rush?

Speaker 2 (18:05):
We'll see and the other key matchup, who's gonna block
Aaron Donald? It's even possible.

Speaker 1 (18:10):
It's a challenge. I mean, it's gonna be more than one.
I can tell you that snap after snap, I mean,
he's still he might be. He might not be the
best I was gonna.

Speaker 2 (18:17):
Say, it's not the height of his powers anymore, but.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
He might be the seventh best defensive still record.

Speaker 2 (18:22):
Game, can still rec a game at his senior age,
and he's status in the league.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
Well.

Speaker 2 (18:27):
The Steelers and the Rams kick off at four to
oh five that game in Los Angeles. Our coverage on
DVE will start at noon with Tim Benz and yourself,
that's right, and then it will lead into the pregame
with Jerry, Bob Labriola and Mike Persuda formatt Williamson. I'm
Tom Opferman. Thanks always for giving us a listen. We'll
be back again next week with another edition of the

(18:47):
Advanced Scout