December 8, 2025 • 13 mins
Traditional business cases are slowing organisations down — and most of them were never telling the truth anyway.
They’re political documents dressed up as analysis, full of predictions nobody can validate and assumptions nobody ever checks.
In this episode, I break down why business cases have become relics, what modern companies are using instead, and how you can shift your organisation toward faster, clearer, evidence-driven decision making.
We cover:
• The five fatal flaws of traditional business cases
• Why companies like Amazon, Atlassian, and Spotify use lightweight decision tools
• What an Opportunity Canvas is and how it replaces months of “business casing”
• Real stories of failures caused by business cases… and wins created by canvases
• Practical steps BAs and leaders can take right now
If your organisation is still writing 30-page business cases, this episode will give you the tools — and the confidence — to push for a better way.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:01):
Business case is dead long with the opportunity canvas.
I know every PMO lead and traditional project manager just
felt a disturbance in the force.But here's the truth.
Business cases, as most organizations use them, are
(00:23):
relics, outdated, slow, political, and in my experience
usually written to justify decision someone has already
made. The Better Business Analysis
Institute presence, the Better Business Analysis podcast with
Kingsman Walsh. Welcome back to the Bit of
(00:48):
Business Analysis podcast with your host Benjamin Walsh.
And thanks for joining me today as we talk about the Opportunity
Canvas. That's right, we got a
breakdown. Why the traditional business
case is broken, why modern companies like think Amazon,
Asilion, Spotify, even some New Zealand based tech companies are
(01:10):
using it. What is the opportunity canvas?
Why is it taking over the business case?
How BASPMS and execs can adopt it without blowing up
governance, which is of course the main concern.
And I'll give you some practicalexamples about how you can apply
it straight away. Let's get into it.
(01:32):
So why are traditional business cases relics?
I'm in the middle of 1, a much smaller one than I did six
months ago, which was a government one, and this one's
much smaller. And I've tried different things
in terms of one page business cases, which this this topic
aligns with a little bit. But let's let's be honest with
(01:53):
ourselves. Traditional business cases
suffer from 5 fatal flaws #1 is that they've written too early,
usually before real analysis begins, before we've spoken to
customers, Before we know the actual problem.
So we lock ourselves into a solution.
(02:13):
Because that's most of the cost,by the way, and what we're
hanging up benefits on. Before we understand the true
demand or need. 2 They pretend that we can predict return on
investment with magic numbers. 10 year cost benefit models for
a problem we barely understand. Everyone gets obsessed with the
(02:34):
spreadsheet. This is fiction though, right?
And CFO approved fiction, but fiction nonetheless #3 is that
they take months, not days. By the time the business case is
approved, the market has moved, the technology has changed, all
the assumptions you based on areno longer true, or you don't
(02:57):
have those political team members that you thought you had
on board because they've changedpriorities #4 they reward
politics, not evidence. Whoever writes it better sells
it harder wins. Not the opinion that creates the
most value, right? Sorry, I shouldn't say opinion,
but the option that creates the most value and they assume
(03:21):
certainty makes the executive feel great.
Modern product development is uncertain by default.
Business cases pretend that uncertainty doesn't exist and
therefore they just stick up risks, right?
But no one ever really goes backto rewrite it.
It's really a 1990s artefact andwe're trying to solve for maybe
(03:43):
20-30. So what are modern companies
using instead? Let's take a look at some
organizations that have actuallyditched the business case,
right? Or heavily limited it and moved
on. So Amazon starts with a press
release, right? They do a press release and FAQ
(04:05):
before any solution is approved.The future press release they
call it doesn't actually go out to press, clarifies the customer
problem, what success will look like, why anyone would care, and
the risks. It's short shot and customer
driven. Asilian.
(04:26):
They make Jira and Confluence. They have the opportunity canvas
which I like the most. Their internal playbook uses the
opportunity canvas to explore and they're still developing
this in their product. By the way, the business
problem, the users current behaviours, hypotheses, I like
(04:47):
that one. Value metrics and bit sizing.
No business case required, just problem clarity which links
completely to what BAS do and value hypothesis, which is kind
of what BAS should be doing. Spotify, they do bits and
problem spaces. So Spotify doesn't fund
(05:08):
projects, they they have bettingrounds on prioritized problem
spaces. Teams pitch the value of
exploring a problem, not the guarantee of fixed return on
investment. Capital One replaced the 40 page
business case with A2 page problem briefs and Capital One
(05:29):
are huge. They do lean opportunity
assessments and they are involved in the startup world
and Silicon Valley in a huge way.
New Zealand companies like Air New Zealand Zero trade me
Datacom, they are using shorter,leaner evidence.
First, anything over two or three pages is treated with
(05:49):
suspicion and the tide is turned.
However, those bottom examples are what I'm used to is one page
business cases. But as we move to the Assilian
example and we look at the opportunity Canvas, it's
slightly different. And Spotify is probably on the
other end of the spectrum where they've got a product and it's
internally driven. Well, sorry, internally pitched
(06:10):
because I've got one product, but definitely driven by
customer insights. So let's explore the Opportunity
Canvas. The Opportunity Canvas is a
practical, modern replacement for a 40 page business case.
It's short, it's focused, it's grounded in customer problems,
not internal opinions, and it includes the problem statement,
(06:33):
plain language, no jargon, no politics, straight out of the BA
book problem statement. We've talked about it, listen to
the podcast, go on the course, problem statements, customer
segments. I love this stuff.
I'm doing some work in there at the moment.
Who actually has this problem ofall your segments?
Not everyone, Current behaviours.
(06:55):
What do people do today instead of using the solution you're
proposing? So current behaviours could be
viable alternatives or current alternatives and a kind of a
lean canvas. What is the value and impact?
So it's called impact and value.What good luck's like if we fix
it. So what is the impact and value?
(07:15):
So you have a, a matrix for thatactually a silly and has that
now in their in their customer discovery area risks and
constraints. So yes, we need to say where it
might blow up success measures. So true outcome measures, not
KPIs, not vanity KPIs, like truemeasures that actually matter.
(07:36):
So NPS score would be what high level approach, not a solution
yet, but problems 1st and then solution later.
So what are the five steps you're going to take?
Cost and effort ranges, not a forecast, just T-shirt sizing
and not fake precision. So that's small, medium, large
(07:56):
T-shirt sizing. And This is why companies adopt
it. They take one to two hours to do
it, not three months. They do it in A room, it works
in agile or project product LED environments.
It actually works if you've got a governance, wonderful
governance on top as well. It forces teams to confront the
problem, not just jump to solution.
It should be driven by the business, not by the tech team.
(08:19):
Easy for the execs to unders to digest.
And that's so important. It reduces bias, it cuts waste,
and it enables faster decision cycles, which is what we want.
It's the difference between approving a project and
improving the expiration of a problem space.
Say that again, you're not asking to approve a project,
(08:42):
you're asking to approve the expiration of a problem space.
And if you know my full P plus model, if you know about it,
then we always start with our people, right?
And then we talk about the processes now, and those
processes are the problems, they're the problem spaces.
You're doing that before you go to project.
This fits nicely with that modeland research.
(09:06):
What does the industry say? So Gartner, McKinsey, CBG,
product related org studies, IIBA surveys, they all point to
the same conclusion. Traditional business cases are
one of the top barriers to speed, innovation and delivering
value. 74% of approved business cases never deliver the
(09:29):
forecasted ROI, so a waste of time.
Project funding cycles are threetimes longer with a formal
business case is required. Organizations using lean
decision artifacts. So opportunity in this example
would be using the Opportunity canvas.
Well, they're 60% more likely todeliver measurable value within
(09:52):
six months. And executives trust problem
lead briefs more than return on investment lead pictures, right?
So the research backs what we already know in practice or what
you're gonna learn. OK, so there's some great
examples. New Zealand, a large retailer
(10:12):
has, the warehouse group have, have, have, have done that.
They've moved away from a huge business case, right, because
they had a problem with the traditional business case and a
38 page business case, right? And the business case assumed
efficiency lift, stable customerdemand, no change in staff
(10:37):
turnover and none of these were validated.
So six months into the build, demand shifted, staffing
crossroads, their own model collapsed after solution wasn't
needed anymore. And even though the business
case was technically approved, the logic inside it was built on
sand. And so that group, the warehouse
group, actually they've moved away from business casing
(10:57):
because they know about it, right.
And there's an example of and fintech, for example, where in
90 minutes, you know, the top pain point wasn't what they
thought it was. They identified some real data,
point real data at the head thatin the room and you know, they
(11:18):
were able to focus on exploring the real problems and finding
out exactly where they should invest.
So don't ask for a business case, ask for a problem canvas
or an opportunity canvas. If someone comes to you with I
need this feature, make them fill in a one page canvas and if
the ROI model has no customer evidence, throw it out 100%.
(11:44):
You can also ask. So it's really hard with an
experimentation. You just don't ask for full
funding. Say fund the first two weeks,
not full year. We'll fund us for six months.
It's a long time with with staffresources, but you can do it two
weeks to prove value. You need to make it visual.
You know, executives need to understand the the canvas.
(12:06):
They will understand it. You need to use ranges, not
false predictions, but don't make sure those ranges aren't
ridiculous. It's just contingency ranges.
And keep the canvas alive. It's a lot, it evolves.
It's not a signed off document. Right?
And you need to teach the organization the difference
between predicting value, discovering value, and measuring
(12:28):
value. Most companies skip the middle
step, which is discovering valueand why they deliver the wrong
thing. If your organization is still
writing 30 page business cases, here's my challenge for you.
Try the Opportunity Canvas on your next addition of doing
parallel. If you like, use it to replace
(12:49):
the 1st 90% of the work a business case pretends to do.
You'll move faster, you'll get clarity earlier, and you'll
deliver solutions customers actually care about.
Thanks for listening, I'll see you next week.
Business case is dead long with the opportunity canvas.
I know every PMO lead and traditional project manager just
felt a disturbance in the force.But here's the truth.
Business cases, as most organizations use them, are
(00:23):
relics, outdated, slow, political, and in my experience
usually written to justify decision someone has already
made. The Better Business Analysis
Institute presence, the Better Business Analysis podcast with
Kingsman Walsh. Welcome back to the Bit of
(00:48):
Business Analysis podcast with your host Benjamin Walsh.
And thanks for joining me today as we talk about the Opportunity
Canvas. That's right, we got a
breakdown. Why the traditional business
case is broken, why modern companies like think Amazon,
Asilion, Spotify, even some New Zealand based tech companies are
(01:10):
using it. What is the opportunity canvas?
Why is it taking over the business case?
How BASPMS and execs can adopt it without blowing up
governance, which is of course the main concern.
And I'll give you some practicalexamples about how you can apply
it straight away. Let's get into it.
(01:32):
So why are traditional business cases relics?
I'm in the middle of 1, a much smaller one than I did six
months ago, which was a government one, and this one's
much smaller. And I've tried different things
in terms of one page business cases, which this this topic
aligns with a little bit. But let's let's be honest with
(01:53):
ourselves. Traditional business cases
suffer from 5 fatal flaws #1 is that they've written too early,
usually before real analysis begins, before we've spoken to
customers, Before we know the actual problem.
So we lock ourselves into a solution.
(02:13):
Because that's most of the cost,by the way, and what we're
hanging up benefits on. Before we understand the true
demand or need. 2 They pretend that we can predict return on
investment with magic numbers. 10 year cost benefit models for
a problem we barely understand. Everyone gets obsessed with the
(02:34):
spreadsheet. This is fiction though, right?
And CFO approved fiction, but fiction nonetheless #3 is that
they take months, not days. By the time the business case is
approved, the market has moved, the technology has changed, all
the assumptions you based on areno longer true, or you don't
(02:57):
have those political team members that you thought you had
on board because they've changedpriorities #4 they reward
politics, not evidence. Whoever writes it better sells
it harder wins. Not the opinion that creates the
most value, right? Sorry, I shouldn't say opinion,
but the option that creates the most value and they assume
(03:21):
certainty makes the executive feel great.
Modern product development is uncertain by default.
Business cases pretend that uncertainty doesn't exist and
therefore they just stick up risks, right?
But no one ever really goes backto rewrite it.
It's really a 1990s artefact andwe're trying to solve for maybe
(03:43):
20-30. So what are modern companies
using instead? Let's take a look at some
organizations that have actuallyditched the business case,
right? Or heavily limited it and moved
on. So Amazon starts with a press
release, right? They do a press release and FAQ
(04:05):
before any solution is approved.The future press release they
call it doesn't actually go out to press, clarifies the customer
problem, what success will look like, why anyone would care, and
the risks. It's short shot and customer
driven. Asilian.
(04:26):
They make Jira and Confluence. They have the opportunity canvas
which I like the most. Their internal playbook uses the
opportunity canvas to explore and they're still developing
this in their product. By the way, the business
problem, the users current behaviours, hypotheses, I like
(04:47):
that one. Value metrics and bit sizing.
No business case required, just problem clarity which links
completely to what BAS do and value hypothesis, which is kind
of what BAS should be doing. Spotify, they do bits and
problem spaces. So Spotify doesn't fund
(05:08):
projects, they they have bettingrounds on prioritized problem
spaces. Teams pitch the value of
exploring a problem, not the guarantee of fixed return on
investment. Capital One replaced the 40 page
business case with A2 page problem briefs and Capital One
(05:29):
are huge. They do lean opportunity
assessments and they are involved in the startup world
and Silicon Valley in a huge way.
New Zealand companies like Air New Zealand Zero trade me
Datacom, they are using shorter,leaner evidence.
First, anything over two or three pages is treated with
(05:49):
suspicion and the tide is turned.
However, those bottom examples are what I'm used to is one page
business cases. But as we move to the Assilian
example and we look at the opportunity Canvas, it's
slightly different. And Spotify is probably on the
other end of the spectrum where they've got a product and it's
internally driven. Well, sorry, internally pitched
(06:10):
because I've got one product, but definitely driven by
customer insights. So let's explore the Opportunity
Canvas. The Opportunity Canvas is a
practical, modern replacement for a 40 page business case.
It's short, it's focused, it's grounded in customer problems,
not internal opinions, and it includes the problem statement,
(06:33):
plain language, no jargon, no politics, straight out of the BA
book problem statement. We've talked about it, listen to
the podcast, go on the course, problem statements, customer
segments. I love this stuff.
I'm doing some work in there at the moment.
Who actually has this problem ofall your segments?
Not everyone, Current behaviours.
(06:55):
What do people do today instead of using the solution you're
proposing? So current behaviours could be
viable alternatives or current alternatives and a kind of a
lean canvas. What is the value and impact?
So it's called impact and value.What good luck's like if we fix
it. So what is the impact and value?
(07:15):
So you have a, a matrix for thatactually a silly and has that
now in their in their customer discovery area risks and
constraints. So yes, we need to say where it
might blow up success measures. So true outcome measures, not
KPIs, not vanity KPIs, like truemeasures that actually matter.
(07:36):
So NPS score would be what high level approach, not a solution
yet, but problems 1st and then solution later.
So what are the five steps you're going to take?
Cost and effort ranges, not a forecast, just T-shirt sizing
and not fake precision. So that's small, medium, large
(07:56):
T-shirt sizing. And This is why companies adopt
it. They take one to two hours to do
it, not three months. They do it in A room, it works
in agile or project product LED environments.
It actually works if you've got a governance, wonderful
governance on top as well. It forces teams to confront the
problem, not just jump to solution.
It should be driven by the business, not by the tech team.
(08:19):
Easy for the execs to unders to digest.
And that's so important. It reduces bias, it cuts waste,
and it enables faster decision cycles, which is what we want.
It's the difference between approving a project and
improving the expiration of a problem space.
Say that again, you're not asking to approve a project,
(08:42):
you're asking to approve the expiration of a problem space.
And if you know my full P plus model, if you know about it,
then we always start with our people, right?
And then we talk about the processes now, and those
processes are the problems, they're the problem spaces.
You're doing that before you go to project.
This fits nicely with that modeland research.
(09:06):
What does the industry say? So Gartner, McKinsey, CBG,
product related org studies, IIBA surveys, they all point to
the same conclusion. Traditional business cases are
one of the top barriers to speed, innovation and delivering
value. 74% of approved business cases never deliver the
(09:29):
forecasted ROI, so a waste of time.
Project funding cycles are threetimes longer with a formal
business case is required. Organizations using lean
decision artifacts. So opportunity in this example
would be using the Opportunity canvas.
Well, they're 60% more likely todeliver measurable value within
(09:52):
six months. And executives trust problem
lead briefs more than return on investment lead pictures, right?
So the research backs what we already know in practice or what
you're gonna learn. OK, so there's some great
examples. New Zealand, a large retailer
(10:12):
has, the warehouse group have, have, have, have done that.
They've moved away from a huge business case, right, because
they had a problem with the traditional business case and a
38 page business case, right? And the business case assumed
efficiency lift, stable customerdemand, no change in staff
(10:37):
turnover and none of these were validated.
So six months into the build, demand shifted, staffing
crossroads, their own model collapsed after solution wasn't
needed anymore. And even though the business
case was technically approved, the logic inside it was built on
sand. And so that group, the warehouse
group, actually they've moved away from business casing
(10:57):
because they know about it, right.
And there's an example of and fintech, for example, where in
90 minutes, you know, the top pain point wasn't what they
thought it was. They identified some real data,
point real data at the head thatin the room and you know, they
(11:18):
were able to focus on exploring the real problems and finding
out exactly where they should invest.
So don't ask for a business case, ask for a problem canvas
or an opportunity canvas. If someone comes to you with I
need this feature, make them fill in a one page canvas and if
the ROI model has no customer evidence, throw it out 100%.
(11:44):
You can also ask. So it's really hard with an
experimentation. You just don't ask for full
funding. Say fund the first two weeks,
not full year. We'll fund us for six months.
It's a long time with with staffresources, but you can do it two
weeks to prove value. You need to make it visual.
You know, executives need to understand the the canvas.
(12:06):
They will understand it. You need to use ranges, not
false predictions, but don't make sure those ranges aren't
ridiculous. It's just contingency ranges.
And keep the canvas alive. It's a lot, it evolves.
It's not a signed off document. Right?
And you need to teach the organization the difference
between predicting value, discovering value, and measuring
(12:28):
value. Most companies skip the middle
step, which is discovering valueand why they deliver the wrong
thing. If your organization is still
writing 30 page business cases, here's my challenge for you.
Try the Opportunity Canvas on your next addition of doing
parallel. If you like, use it to replace
(12:49):
the 1st 90% of the work a business case pretends to do.
You'll move faster, you'll get clarity earlier, and you'll
deliver solutions customers actually care about.
Thanks for listening, I'll see you next week.
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