Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hello, this is Brad
Wiseman.
You're listening to Real Estateand you.
We are back here again.
Boy, it seems like we're here alot actually, but no, we're
back in the studio and we have ashow here.
This is definitely about realestate.
Last couple shows have been notabout real estate, so this
one's about real estate, andit's also.
our good friend, pete Heim, isback in the studio to give us
numbers, to crunch numbers, todecipher what in the heck is
(00:24):
going on in this market.
right, yeah, is that what youdo?
You have new glasses, or?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
something.
No, I actually have glasses.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
You have glasses, so
I have to stop squinting.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, you shoulduse them.
The crow's feet are gettingworse.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Yeah, is that what
those are?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Yeah, they might be
hawks feet by now.
They're eagle-tongued ones.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Wild turkey feet Did
you?
Speaker 1 (00:41):
ever see a wild
turkey's feet.
They're nasty man Like my auntin here.
I dated a girl who had feetlike that.
One time I'll tell you what manThat was over, took her socks
off.
I'm like, i'm out, i'm out.
It was nice knowing you Exactly.
They take your feet and go Allright.
What do you got for us, Pete?
They take your feet and go Allright.
What do you got for us?
Oh, hey ho, Let's talk somenumbers.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
So let's talk about
numbers, like we always like to
do So, brad, right before weturned this on.
We always like to talk numbersbecause there's a lot of
misinformation And I feel that,and we always talk about local
numbers being hyper-local Andthat's the necessary thing,
which is so true.
But really, we'll get into themedian thing.
(01:24):
But really, what I think weshould talk about today is
really what is going on withbuyers competing against buyers,
and why and what's causing thatAnd who's winning.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
I think we're kind of
winning.
Do you feel like we're kind oflike in a rut?
right now It's not reallychanging, like if there for a
while it seemed like we wouldhave inventory go up and we get
a little bit of relief And yourbuyers that were waiting for a
while would get a house finally,and then it would go back down
into being And it just seemslike we're in this 350 to 375
(01:55):
listings at any given time inthe county And it just sits
there.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Yeah, and there's a
reason for that.
Remember What's the reason.
Remember what it is.
What's that?
Over 65% of the mortgages rightnow have under 4% on their
mortgages.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
So why move?
Speaker 2 (02:09):
So why move?
And then there's a lot ofpeople thinking oh, you know
what, if we just renovate thisthing and if we do this or do
that, we're just going to stayput.
However, you and I both alwayspreach this.
I think we do it almost everymonth.
We talk about people movebecause they need to or they buy
because they need to.
Absolutely And if you don'tneed to right now.
It's not like a secondary.
Oh, let's just go ahead andsell it and see what we can do.
(02:31):
So inventory 357.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
It was yesterday 357
homes on the market in Brooks
County And, like I said, it'sjust floating in that 350 to 375
, 370 range And every day I getup and I look at it I'm thinking
, ah, come on, it's like winningthe lottery.
I'm like, come on, let's justsee 380 or 390.
That would get me excited.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Yeah, no, no, no, so
and it's for the reasons we just
talked about.
But the people who are winning?
I think there's a certaindemographic that's winning right
now And I just did a video onthis last week on downsizers.
Downsizers is, out of all theyears that you and I have been
doing this, it's probably thenumber one demographic that's
winning because they're the babyboomers mostly, mostly, and
(03:10):
they're equity rich And just,for example, ok, 38.7% of people
in America their houses arefree and clear 38.7%.
That's almost 40% where no onehas a loan against their house.
Wow, and those are boomers.
Mostly, that's amazing.
Yeah, 29.4% have more than 50%.
Wow, so you're talking, almost70% have like amazing equity,
(03:31):
amazing equity.
And those are the people thatare downsizing into homes, that
are competing with the firsttime home buyer.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Yeah, And that's
what's happening.
They sell theirs, they get cash.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
They take the cash
and then they compete against a
first time buyer that's tryingto buy something in the 250, 270
range.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
I actually know
somebody just like that actually
Do you?
Are they close by?
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Yes, very close by
Yes, no, but I know somebody.
I mean it's hard, man, it'stough, yeah, but you have to
stay in it.
I mean I tell Hugo this youhave to stay in it.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
You have to stay in
it.
You're never going to getanything.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
So otherwise it
becomes really depressing, of
course.
But you'll find something,it'll happen.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
It will.
74% of people have quoted thatthey have over $100,000 of
equity And 20% say they haveover $300,000 equity.
That's amazing.
Ok, so there's a lot of equity,lot of equity, and there's what
did I say?
It was 23,.
The residential real estateworth net worth.
Yeah, did you see what thatnumber was?
No, it was $23 trillion.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Wow $23 trillion of
net worth.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
I said that to my
network group.
I said, hey guys, guess howmuch I think all residential
real estate in the United States, how much is it worth?
You heard $1 trillion, $3trillion.
I said no, it's $23.
I went wow.
Because, you know what?
Five years ago it probably was.
Yeah, absolutely.
That's incredible Think aboutthe amount of equity that's
based on these numbers.
That's amazing, and so theother problem is inventory again
(04:54):
.
So in April of 2022.
Yeah, in the nation.
Now, this is not micro.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
This is Mac, this is
national.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Okay.
497 844 listings on the marketin April of 2020.
Say it again.
What's the number?
497.
Just shy of 500,000.
Got it, okay, got it.
April of 23, 392.
Yeah, it's just right.
Yep, that's, that's 100,000less.
Yeah, yeah, in the nation Westill have an in 2022 was low.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Yeah, 2022 was.
Yeah, i think it was like amillion one or something.
You're going.
you're going down from what wasalready a low number.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Yeah, it's like it's
going half half Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Yeah, you know.
So, once again, you know, and Ijust had I was talking to Kevin
Tamishanko and he'll be on theshow at some point again, uh,
but I was just talking to himand he was talking about with
developing and he he keepssaying the big issue is, is
local?
local government is just reallymaking it tough to do
developments, to do well, to do,to build communities and, and
(05:52):
you know, unless we're going tostop having children or unless
we're going to close all of ourborders from anybody coming in,
we need housing.
Yeah, you know, we have to putpeople somewhere.
So until until the governmentboth federal, state and local
loosens up on things, yeah, youknow, we're not going to have
more houses.
No, you know, or we got to stoppeople coming in then at that
(06:15):
point, right, you know, we gotto find a place to let No, we
can't, You can't.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
That's not what we're
about, right.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
You know um.
You know, hugo wouldn't be hereif it wasn't for us.
We love you being friendly to,to immigrants and stuff.
So exactly You know.
So I just it's just an issueand we somehow we have to to
find a way around it.
Another situation that him andI have talked about apartments.
You know, i think there'srealtors out there that are like
anti apartment new apartmentsgoing in No way.
(06:40):
You know, i just got two newlistings because of Iroquois,
the, the new apartment place,going in.
I have two past customers thatwere looking for an easier way
to live on first floor, on onefloor.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Oh yeah, they
couldn't find the houses.
You know they did their rentingnow and they're happy as could
be.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
I got two new
listings.
Guess what those two newlistings does.
Somebody else comes in that waslooking for a home, so that
helps the housing situation.
You know it does So I think weshould see more of those bigger
complexes going out because itwould solve part of the problem.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Oh, it totally would
Give Kevin a a tip for me.
I will tell him we should buythe Berkshire mall and make it.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Oh, dude, and make it
what apartments that would.
That would solve a lot of thinkabout housing issues.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Oh my god, yeah,
that'd be awesome.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Yeah, that would be
amazing, it really would.
Yeah, yeah, it'd be really cool.
So anyway we'll have to.
I think he's already talkedabout that.
I'm sure he has.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Well, we're 10 steps
behind.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Yeah, i was going to
say, yeah, he's way ahead of us,
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
But anyway, median
price.
Let's just talk quick aboutmedian price.
It's a bad indicator of valueright now.
Okay, you know you, everythingyou read are here on this.
Oh, the median price is downand all that is okay.
Here's, here's why.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
And median, let me
see if I remember Okay, don't
you throw away the top one andthe bottom one, take Yep,
something like that.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
I'm going to give you
an example.
I'm never good at this.
It's the top half goes away.
Speaker 1 (07:58):
Yeah, the bottom half
goes away, okay Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
And the one that's in
the middle is what your house
is worth.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
Okay, so that's yeah.
So that's not the same asaverage.
Yeah, it's not good.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
So let's say you have
, let's say you have, three
coins, mm, hmm, you have a dime,and put them in order Dime,
dime, nickel.
Okay, take the dime away, takethe nickel away.
Your house is worth a dime,yeah, but that's not really
right.
Right, don't I have Dime,nickel, nickel.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
Yeah, now we're gonna
be worth a nickel away, dime
away.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
You're worth a nickel
It's.
That's how ridiculous meaningprice is sounds like you're a
magician.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Actually, i Would
just take them all yeah.
I'm taking all the change thatI see.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
Anyway, screw you.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
I love your I love
your analogy, give me the damn
money.
That's crazy.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
But no, that's what,
that's what you're hearing.
And then people are Affordingless, maybe because of hi just
rates, and they're going down alittle bit.
Yeah, they're saying now, yourhouse is gonna be worth less
because of that.
No no, no, that's not the wayto look at pricing of a house or
any property really.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
So I say you know
interestingly enough, is just on
the piggyback.
On that interesting, i'm doinga market analysis, just did one
this morning for a rancher in inShillington, you know, and what
was really what?
what agents and I think alsosellers need to look at.
They talk about there's there'smarketing price And there's
sales price Yep, which is whatit sold for.
The marketing price is whatit's listed at, basically Mm-hmm
(09:16):
.
Everybody always thinks thatthe marketing price is It's
always your, your sales price isalways gonna be less than that
or whatever, or that you have togo with the last sold price.
Okay, so it was interesting.
I'm looking at this propertyand in my mind I'm thinking it's
worth like two forty five, twofifty.
I Looked at the sales.
Currently the last solds inthat area same kind of house
(09:38):
They were 260.
I looked at what they werelisted at 235.
Both of them were listed at 235, 237.
Both of them.
The sold prices 260.
So you know, whenever you'relooking at marketer, when you're
looking at prices, you can'tjust go by what it sold for, you
have to also look what it, whatwas it marketed at?
Because I, because I told themlet's go where they did, so we
(10:02):
get multiple offers and get 260.
It's exactly because, if you goto 260, you might not get any
offer, you might not get whatyou want.
It's an interesting way Look at, but there was literally two
houses, same exact price, gotthe same result.
Yeah, it was over by 15 grand,right?
amazing.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
Yep, yeah, that's
called.
That's called unicorn pricing.
Yeah, right, right, becauseyou're pricing off of what we
just came through on unicorn.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
That's you know.
yeah, exactly, yep, you'reexactly right.
So it's just amazing to watchthat stuff.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
So where price is
going?
there will be a graphic.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
Yeah, i've been told
yep, There will be absolutely so
the estimated price there?
Speaker 2 (10:33):
I mean they're saying
it's gonna be negative point
three, seven this year.
All these experts, you know,you know you're talking to me,
freddie, fluctuating all year.
I don't see it here.
Locally I don't see it, butmaybe nationally, i don't know,
because you got to take in theshort points and stuff.
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
I think you're.
No, i think it, you're right, ithink it will be.
Nationally It will be pointnegative.
Point three, seven or or, orstead or steady, because I do
watch a lot.
I watched the ocean city,maryland short points, just
because I like that area, andtheir pricing is coming down,
sure, absolutely.
And I think it's because it'ssecond homes and things like
that I know.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Tampa is Tampa's come
a lot of Florida.
Florida has definitely gotten.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Their inventory is
going up.
So you know, the thing aboutFlorida that's different than us
is they can turn on the newconstruction switch.
Yeah, I mean right because they, they approve stuff in like
five months right So they can.
They can turn on the newconstruction switch.
All of a sudden, the buildersstart producing and then it,
then it levels off the marketand then when, when they see
(11:27):
stuff Getting back, they turn toswitch off and they wait smart.
Yeah, that's the way they do itaround here 18 months, two
years, three years, until youget any, any inventory, millions
and dollars of cost exactly.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Yeah, but I think
we're Going to be four.
I'm just my around here.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
my prediction Yeah, i
think you're about my
prediction, i think so I don'tknow, but then nationally 1.34.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
So this is something
for buyers to look at, because
we get the question Should wewait?
Yeah, um, no, because here'sthe pricing 1.2, 3.4 in 2024,
then 3.2 in 2025.
Now these are increases, theseare appreciation rates 4.1 in
226, 4.48.
So four and a half in 2027.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
And those are
national, national predictions.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
And we are usually a
little higher than national.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Yeah, the national
here is pretty conservative.
Yep, yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
And then and then,
what are mortgage rates doing?
Well, if, what were they today,brad?
Speaker 1 (12:17):
That's 7.22 is what
it says, so 7.25.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
So, mr and Mrs
Homebuyer, they're going up.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Yeah, okay, i'm
hoping they come down.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
But so here's the
thing about waiting.
If you wait and they're for theinterest rates to come down,
the houses are going to go up,the price is going to go up.
If you wait, if you don't wait,while the rates are this high,
you're going to have, you'regoing to have a better
opportunity while the prices arestill staying somewhat, some
status quo.
Yeah, exactly, you know.
So you got to consider which.
Which poison you want to drink?
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Yeah, i think the
rates are going to come down,
hopefully a little bit soon, i'mhoping whether all the all
these experts are saying 20, 23,3 quarters going to be 6.3.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Yeah, and then 5.97
again.
That would be wonderful, right,and then 2024.
It's going to be in the highfives.
Yeah, i'm hoping that's whatthey're saying, but you know
what They also said it was goingto hit 3% last year and it
didn't.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
It's so true, yeah,
they, they don't.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
nobody really knows
what watch what inflation is
doing and the 10 year treasury.
If you just watch those twothings, you can predict for
yourself what interest rates aregoing to do.
Okay, so stay on top of that.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
And the other thing
is too you know, these are all
predictions.
These are all people that aremuch smarter than you and I.
Oh yeah, oh yeah.
And they are coming with thesepredictions, and if you watch
throughout the year orthroughout the time period, they
almost always are adjustingthem, yeah, as time goes on.
So the other thing that to me,is always a clear, clear, fact
(13:40):
based thing is the market rightnow, yeah right.
The interest rates right now.
The prices right now Yeah,those are the things we know.
Yeah, we never know what'sgoing on in front of us Exactly,
never.
You can predict.
You could be a Harvard gradthat's trying to tell us what
numbers are here.
Yep, yeah, it's it.
You don't know.
You just don't know.
(14:01):
We weren't supposed to haverain today too.
Yeah, oh, geez, exactly.
Oh, my God, seriously, yeah, Ifwe could all just be weathermen
, people weathermen, that wouldbe wonderful.
I mean, seriously in the crate,that is amazing.
We just do not know how topredict weather.
It's it.
We just don't.
And we don't know how topredict interest rates either.
No, and we don't know how topredict house prices either.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
No, we don't.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
You know what that
means.
We just talk.
All we know is what it's doingright now.
Right now, if it's, you know,it means seriously.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
I'll never forget
what Lou Ho Oh, wait, wait, wait
I do have my eight ball here,if you want to ask Oh yeah,
Shake it.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Yeah, let's just see.
You want to see if I ask if therates are going up.
Let's see, this will be a goodone, see if the rates are going
up.
We'll see.
See what it says.
Hold on, i have to get myglasses on for this.
Okay, our rates going up.
What's?
Speaker 2 (14:46):
this It says ask me
later.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
That's a political
eight ball right there, man,
holy mackerel.
So it said, ask me later.
So we'll ask it next time andwe'll see what it says, but
that's about as good as it is,oh yeah, it's about it, yeah,
yeah.
Yeah, so what else are we?
Speaker 2 (14:59):
talking about here.
What other charts do you got?
I'm just staying on charts forHugo, for him to do it.
You know, number one thingstill American dream is owning a
home.
Yeah, And then it goes downfrom there.
Able to retire, successfulcareer, college degree goes, it
goes down from there but what'sinteresting?
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Okay, this is really
interesting.
If you look at the the two topones that are on the screen,
owning a home, being able toretire, those two things are
pretty much hand in hand, that'sit.
If you own a home, you mostlikely will be able to retire
because of why.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Because of equity
because it's and it's your
wealth builder.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
But in that funny
Hugo, those two things right
there owning a home, being ableto retire.
So 74% say the.
The American dream is obviouslyowning a home.
The other part is being able toretire.
Those things should be tiedtogether.
They should be tied together,yeah.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
Yeah, i successful
career.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
That's before all
that All that successful career,
you need to buy a house too.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
And college degree,
obviously college degree.
Yeah, but then the last thing Ihave here was the supply of
homes and showing how low theystill are.
There's a graph here that shows2017, 2018, 2019, and then 2023
.
Yeah, and it's half.
Yeah, it's half Yeah, basically, and so you'll.
You can see that graphic.
It just, it's just morereinforcement of our inventory
(16:12):
problem.
Average days on the market's 18still.
So 74% of homes coming on themarket are selling less than 30
days.
It's, it's So what should a?
buyer do So.
your buyer should not wait Okay.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
They should stay.
What should they do to help?
What can they do to make theiroffer the one?
Speaker 2 (16:27):
Well, they should
adjust their parameters a little
bit.
Okay, i should loosen those up.
That's the first thing.
Okay, maybe location, maybechange something.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
So don't get so
strict on your parameters.
Make the net bigger.
Yeah, right, yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Try to stay loose on
your parameters, because there
might be something in there youcan live with.
Yeah, right, got it.
That's the first tip, right,yeah.
The second tip is find haveyour agent educate you on what
the seller needs.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Yes.
True, And and see if you canaccommodate that one, very true,
that's like the biggest thing.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Yeah, right, what
will be?
an example of that?
Speaker 1 (16:58):
Like what the seller
needs, like allowing the
furniture to stay in the house.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Oh yeah, Exactly,
that's a good one.
We have experience with that,we have, we have experience.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
I love how he just
lights up when I I had I had one
with a cup.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
The seller needed to
find a house first before they,
before they settle on this one.
Yeah, yeah, my buyer waswilling to walk their dog and
watch their kids while they'relooking for homes, and that's
that could be there And theywant, and they want also
allowing them freedom with thesettlement date.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
If the seller is
needs freedom, the sell date,
the settlement date, as a buyeryou say look, you take the time
you need, we're here, we're here, we're not going to rush you
Now.
If they say the opposite andthis is the thing that I think
we this is what we do And thisis what I was doing for Hugo is
is you do have to connect withthe agent.
Yeah, have a conversation, Say,okay, what is it that your
(17:49):
seller needs?
What do they need?
Is it walking the dog?
Is it whatever?
it is?
Yeah, in in this situation itwas, there was a bunch of
furniture left in the house.
So the quiet that we said Fine,leave the furniture in the
house.
They didn't want to have toremove it.
So the seller said that wouldbe a bonus if you would just
take the furniture.
Well, that was something thatwe said.
Yeah, we'll do that, of course.
(18:09):
So those are things you can do.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
And the last thing
get your offer as close to cash
as you can.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
And that's not.
That's the hard ones.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
That's the hard one.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Right, That's what
appraisal gap coverage.
That's maybe paying theirtransfer tax, Maybe paying the
realtor commission.
I hate to say it, but I hate toalways bring a buyer into the
listing contract.
I don't think that's right.
But you can do that And thenget as close to cash as you can.
That's the best thing you cansay And your first time, buyers
are competing against theboomers who are equity rich, and
(18:39):
I hate to say it, but that'swhat's going on.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Yeah Well, hopefully
that will get to a point where
it starts to wind down a littlebit.
You know what I mean.
That will give opportunity fora lot of other buyers.
But don't give up.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
Oh I can say don't
give up, stay in it, you're
going to get it, and don't wait,no, don't wait.
Speaker 1 (18:54):
Yeah, there's no
reason to wait.
There's no reason.
It's like anything.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
If we thought you
should wait, we would tell you
It's the same thing.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
I say Yeah exactly To
a seller Back when the market
was the other way around.
They would say I'm just goingto take it off the market
because it's not going to sellanyway.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
And.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
I'd say well, guess
what?
I can guarantee you, guaranteeyou, it won't sell when it's off
the market.
That's a guarantee When it's onthe market, you have a good
chance of selling it right,right, so that's the same thing.
So you've got to be in themarket if you want to play this,
you've got to be there.
So all right, man, that was itAwesome, but we had some good
topics there.
Hugo got involved, so everybodyneeds to hope that Hugo can
(19:31):
find a house and get things done.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
all right, let's go
Hugo.
And once he gets a betterrealtor he'll be in much better
shape, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Yeah, you need to
talk around boy.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
All right, that's it
There.
It is Pete Hime back here forPete's point of view, and he's
here once a month And yeah,it'll be Thursday at 7 PM.
This will be out, and we lookforward to seeing you next week
too.
All right, see you there.