CRE Deal Activity Surges—Will Recession Fears Drag Investors Down?

Markets whipsawed this week against a barrage of policy and economic headlines. Inflation cooled more than expected, which was welcome news, but investors grappled with trade war escalations sparking recession fears and a sharp selloff in equities. Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down how macro uncertainty is shaping investor sentiment, from rising bond yields to heightened volatility in the stock market. Despite the turbulence, the LightBox CRE Activity Index surged 19% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year, signaling continued strength in commercial real estate transactions. The team also unpacks the latest CMBS issuance surge, what Delta’s earnings reveal about business travel pullbacks, and why CRE investors remain focused on deal flow even as the economy wobbles. With CRE sentiment still resilient, the question remains: is this just a market correction, or are we edging closer to a recession? 

04:26 Interest Rates and Market Sentiment 

09:51 Uncertainty in Tariffs and Government Shutdown 

12:54 Lightbox CRE Activity Index Surges 

15:33 CRE Lending Trends and Market Sentiment 

22:19 Navigating the CMBS Landscape 

25:48 More Green Shoots in the Office Market 

28:57 San Francisco Shows Positive Signs 

31:19 Reflections on the Pandemic's Impact 

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to [e-mail]. 

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