Special Year in Review Edition: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly of 2025

It may be the season for a Santa Claus rally, but this week felt more Grinch than gift: a soft jobs report, 10-year Treasuries stuck above 4%, retail sales hinting at a more cautious consumer, and markets wobbling as investors rethink the AI trade. Manus and Dianne zoom out on the year that was: tariffs that didn’t trigger the hyperinflation many feared, rate cuts that arrived later and smaller than almost anyone predicted, and sentiment that swung quickly from optimism to anxiety in a series of “lane-departure warnings” rather than a clean soft landing. They unpack how Fed policy, shutdown-driven data distortions, equity market froth, and renewed securities buying are shaping the macro backdrop heading into 2026. 

On the CRE side, despite the bumpy ‘’market ride, the LightBox CRE Activity Index stayed in triple digits for 9 of the past 11 months, signaling a market that cooled and adjusted but never froze. Surprises included an office sector that didn’t collapse as the doomsayers predicted and even set leasing records in metros like New York and San Francisco, a multifamily recovery that’s taking longer to work through, and a data center land rush that turned once-ordinary parcels into $6 million-per-acre headlines.  

The episode closes on a human note, with Manus, Dianne, and first-time host Molly sharing their standout moments of 2025—from weddings and college milestones to first apartments and new roles. 

Don’t miss this clear-eyed debrief on what 2025 got right, what it got wrong, and what this bumpy year means for CRE heading into 2026. 

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to [e-mail]. 

 

Time Stamps 
00:00 Introduction and Technical Setup 
01:01 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 
03:02 Macro Environment Surprises of 2025 
08:29 Commercial Real Estate Insights 
17:39 Reflections on Personal Highlights of 2025 

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