Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
Hey guys, how are you happy Friday?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Welcome into the latest episode of the Daily Juice podcast
with me Matt Perolt. You guys can follow me across
from all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and
we're back after a losing day, three straight losing days.
Now we went three and oh one Monday, so that
put us up three units, and since we have been
slowly chipping away with a one in two, one in two,
(00:39):
one in two mark. Only a unit yesterday down raise win.
Seattle got blanked for a second consecutive day. More on
that here in just one second, or Saint Louis got
blank brother and then Seattle got almost got blanked, I
mean Seattle got housed. Seattle lost ten to one. They
(01:01):
got killed by the twins. Those were the two bad
bets of the day. The good bet of the day
was the race on the money line. But a one
and two day down one unit, so we were up
about a half a unit yesterday, so now we're about
a door down a half a unit as we head
to Friday. Now I'm going to fire on baseball. I
got three plays in one parlay to give you. It's Friday,
(01:24):
so let's continue the bet. I'll give you a three
leg money line parlay here for baseball, which you can
fade all of these bets. You aren't going to make
me mad if you've faded me. The last three days.
You've been profitable, so not bad. We'll go into the
lab on Saturday for UFC three seventeen, which I'm going
to be there. I will not bet baseball tomorrow, and
then on Sunday we'll get kind of wonky.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
We'll go all over the place.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
It's time to look at NASCAR, it's time to look
at golf, it's time to look at all the exotics,
because well, I hate betting baseball for an entire week,
and you're seeing why, because baseball is very predictable at a
lot of times. I know I talked about betting more
player props for Major League Baseball this season. I just
(02:07):
have a hard time bringing myself around to it, Like
even with the prop bet cheat sheet, I just I'm
not I'm not confident in anything prop bet cheat sheet,
my own props, like really anything. We're six and seven
this year in Major League Baseball props, so that's not horrible.
We're down to half a unit for that, so maybe
we'll need to go back to that at some point.
(02:29):
But one of the problems I have with the prop
bet cheat sheet is that it's really good the day of,
but for like the NBA, when you bet overnight with
the prop bet cheat sheet, it has the data is
a little bit more in tune with what's going to
happen the next day. So I may need to bet
prop bet cheat sheet plays the day of, so stay
(02:53):
tuned for that next week. We very well might be
switching over to like I'll give you two plays on
the podcast, and then we'll give you two plays for
the prop bet cheat sheet the day of on the
Discord channel or on the Betting pros app, maybe on both.
That is how we used to do the NBA until
(03:13):
we got really the algorithm fine tuned, and the prop
bet cheat sheet was really good overnight for NBA. So
maybe we need to do what we did previously with
the NBA, which is bet day of with the prop
bet cheat sheet, fully having all the data who is in,
who's starting, you know, because we changed starting pitchers, everything's
out the window from a data standpoint. So that's part
(03:36):
of the problem when it comes to Major League Baseball
is the lineups. We don't know them overnight, so that
creates problems in terms of the algorithm in figuring out
what the most likely bets are. The best value, the
five star plays, the expected value plays, the hit probability,
all that stuff doesn't get calculated until you have a lineup.
(03:58):
So we need the lineup, which is of stuff. So
next week we'll probably bet more player props. But for today,
three bets, straight bets and one parlay.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
For you guys here on.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
A Friday, a reminder about the Paul Pierce jersey. If
you guys want to get that, it's easy. We're giving
this away next week. You're going to subscribe to the
Betting Pros YouTube channel. You're going to comment on a
daily Juice video this one or anyone, and that's it.
You are in and we will pull a name coming
up next week. Thanks to our friends at Pristine Auction
(04:31):
dot com for the autographed Paul Pierce Celtics jersey.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Okay, I'm gonna go right back to the well with
the rays. All right, The Rays are playing at the Orioles.
It's Ppo. I finally forget.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
I can say you guy's name, Ryan pepeo Ppo Saguna
is going for the Baltimore Orioles. This is the Friday
night game on Apple TV, so it is nationally televised,
and the Orioles are seventeen and twenty one at home
and the Rays are nineteen and twelve. The Rays of
one four game games in a row. The season series
is tied at two games a piece. But Tampa's been
(05:05):
playing and pitching so well. Back to back shutouts three
to nothing and four nothing of the k C Royals
in a five to one win in the first game.
They took two of three against the Tigers.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
They took.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
They split the four game series at home against the Orioles.
They just saw Baltimore, and now here we are with Ppo.
On the mound, he's five and six for a three
point zero four ERA, but on the road he has
a two point eight three ERA, a one in three record,
but in opposing batting average of two oh four, just
nine earned runs given up in twenty eight and two
(05:40):
thirds innings worth of work, and the team has won
three of his last four starts eight three over Detroit
seven to one over these Baltimore Orioles. He lost at
the Red Sox in his last road start, and then
Texas a four to three win at home against the Rangers.
I'm going to ride this Tampa Bay Rays team for
(06:00):
a bit here. We've been betting them last two days.
Let's bet him for a third day in a row.
It's been the only bets them in getting right. Tampa
Bay money line and it's not expensive, which is awesome.
It's only minus one twenty to come in here and
bet the Tampa Bay Rays again on the road against
the Orioles. Tampa money line to beat Baltimore here today
for one point two units.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
All right? Have you been seeing what's going on in
Major League Baseball? For scores?
Speaker 2 (06:26):
I picked the wrong week to bet overs Tigers yesterday
ate nothing over the A's Blue Jays, yesterday six nothing
over the Guardians. The Phillies scored one, the Mariners scored one.
The Rays blanked the Royals for nothing, The Cubs blanked
the Cardinals for nothing. The Dodgers held the Rockies to
one run, and the Mets shut out the Braves for nothing.
(06:51):
Nobody's scoring. What is going on in Major League Baseball?
We're back to the offenses being gone. Is it just
going in sols? Is there something with the baseball like
what is going on right now? Because nobody is scoring
any runs. So let's talk about unders in which games
are we going to target to go and bet the under?
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Well?
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Have you seen the Texas Rangers at home this year?
From an over under perspective, it's pretty wild. The Texas
Rangers are twenty nine to ten to the under at
home this year. Hello, twenty nine to ten to the under.
And while I understand that the Mariners, we've been riding
(07:37):
the Mariners in terms of overs. Logan Gilbert's going here
two and two record with a three point one to
two eer up against Nathan Valdi and Logan Gilbert on
the road this year hasn't been great, but he's only
pitched one game nine point two stars, rather two games
nine point nine to two thirds innings worth of work,
(07:59):
six earned runs in fifteen six eern runs and nine
innings worth of work. It's too small of a sample
size for Logan Gilbert. His last start on the road
against the Cubs was bad. He gave up four earned runs,
the team scored fourteen. It was fourteen to six, and
that crazy game with the wind blowing out on Sunday,
it was like a softball game. That's, you know, a
(08:22):
typical for the start against Toronto, the game went to
twelve innings. It was an eight to four final because
it went to extras. Heal and gave up two earned
runs in four and two thirds inning worth work. Everything
else for Logan Gilbert was at home. Those are the
only two road starts he's had so far. Nathan Avaldi,
on the other side, at home, has a one point
seventy five ERA. He hasn't got a win yet, but
(08:44):
he's pitched twenty five and two thirds innings worth of work,
a one ninety one opposing batting average, five earned runs
and twenty five and two thirds innings worth of work
for Nathan Valdi under playing the Unders open at eight,
first bet was to seven and a half. You can
find an eight out there, I mean, jump on, but
we're gonna bet the under under four, the Mariners and
the Rangers under seven and a half here for today,
(09:08):
and the other bet we're gonna make from a total perspective,
we're going to look at the Dodgers on the road
at the Royals. This number is nine and a half
simply because of what the Dodgers might be able to score.
If you want to bet team total Royals under I
don't mind it, but I'd rather have the nine and
a half here for the Dodgers and the Royals. Noah
(09:30):
Cameron's going for the Royals. Noah Cameron at home as
a three point zero nine ERA, not great, but a
one point one one ERA on the road, one in two,
eight earned in twenty three innings worth of work, two
sixteen opposing batting average. His last home start a three
to two loss to the A's home start before that,
(09:51):
he gave up six earned runs to the Yankees. He
got tattooed against the Yankees, but the Royals only scored
two runs in that game. In his last three starts,
has received a whopping five runs of support from this
Royals offense. He does not get any run support on
the other side. You look at Dustin May, who hasn't
been great, but the Royals don't score, so.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
This could be a big bounce back spot.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Dustin May has a five point nine to four ERA
on the road, a one in three record and as
long as he doesn't get tattooed tonight, twenty two earned
runs and thirty three and a third innings worth of work.
His last road start five earned runs and five innings
up against the Padres.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Against Cleveland, he went five innings, gave up three earn runs.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
As long as the Royals don't allow the Dodger offense
to score like seven runs, like this feels like a
seven to three final. If you want to talk about
how does this game look, it feels like a seven
to three final. If you want to bet the Dodgers
on the run line, I don't mind it. It's even
money simply because normally it could be three to two,
(10:55):
it could be four to three, just the way these
games normally go. The best bet in the games the
under one and a half, under nine and a half
Dodgers and the Royals. Royals don't give up a lot
of runs. They're a bullpen is good, but they don't
score a lot of runs. And whenever you see a
nine and a half with a Royal game at Kaufman, sorry,
I'm betting under under nine and a half for the
(11:17):
Dodgers and the Royals. Finally, we're gonna take a look
at a three leg money line parlay. That's a four
to one bet. The Astros are playing the Cubs. This
is the scary bet. This is the tough one. The
Astros have won four games in a row, and the
Astros at home this year have a ridiculous record of
(11:39):
thirty and thirteen. The Tigers have twenty eight wins at home.
They're twenty eight in thirteen, but nobody in the American
League has thirty wins at home. The Dodgers have thirty
wins at home, but they're thirty and fourteen. This is
the best record in Major League Baseball for the Houston Astros,
(12:00):
and they've won four games in a row. On the
other side, we're getna be a Cub team that isn't
awful on the road by any means. They're twenty three
and eighteen on the road. They took the last two
games of the series against the Cardinals three eight nothing,
back to back shutouts in Monaga. Was very sharp. I
(12:20):
thought he might be banged up. Nope, he was very
sharp against the Cardinals and a good start for them.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
They're throwing cad Horton. Cad Horton on the road.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
This year has a four point one to two ERA,
a two to one record, nine earned in nineteen and
two thirds innings worth of work, two to seventy eight
opposing batting average. Last start out, he gave up six runs,
three earned to the Mariners at home. His last road
start was a four to nothing loss, five innings, four
earned runs. He lost the game to the Detroit Tigers.
(12:53):
This is an Astros team the top. They beat the
Phillies two to one yesterday. They swept the Phillies, who
were really good. I mean, the Phillies were hot going
into that series and they got swept at Houston. I'm
gonna ride the streak Astro's money line. I'm gonna parlay
that with Dodgers' money line. Like I mentioned, I think
it's like a seven to three win for the Dodgers
(13:14):
up against the Royals, and then the Mets are on
the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates. And I'm sorry, I
just I can't back to beck wins for the Mets
seven to three and four nothing. They snapped out of
their streak and going to Pittsburgh is a perfect antidote
a team that is twenty and twenty one.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
The Mets lead the.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Season's series two games to one, four nothing in four
to three wins for the Mets at home two to one, sorry,
two to one, in four to four to three, a
four nothing win for the Pirates. The last time these
teams played on the fourteenth of May. Mitch Keller at home,
and it's always Mitch is always better at home.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Not this year.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
He's oh in seven at home this year four point
five to eight e er, which is awful, A two
seventy eight opposing batting average, twenty nine earned runs in
fifty seven innings worth of work for Mitch Keller. I
mean the team has lost five consecutive games with Mitch
Keller on the mound. In nine of ten the team
(14:14):
has lost in games started by Mitch Keller. I know
the Mets aren't great on the road, but give me
the Mets. David Peterson going for them on the road
a three point eighty six ERA. He's one in three,
so he's not great on the road, But I like
the Mets team here. He lost seven to one to
the Phillies last time out on the road in against
Atlanta five to four and extras. He went three innings, sorry,
(14:38):
seven innings, gave up three earned runs there. I just
I can't back the Pirates. Good spot on our Friday
night to back the Mets. Well bat the Mets back
the Mets Astros Dodgers Mets moneyline parlay is plus four two.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Let's put a.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
Half a unit down coming up on that for us
here tonight. All right, so our plays for today raise
money line at MIS one twenty Texas and Seattle under
seven and a half, Dodgers and the Royals under nine
and a half Astros Dodgers Mets moneyline parlay for a
half a unit at four to one.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
Fade away if you would like to do so. See
if we can snap out of this.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Three straight losing days, but we're just slightly down for
the week. A big day today kicks off the weekend,
gets us right into tomorrow for UFC three seventeen and
a chance to have a winning week and a winning
month as well. Here my name is Matt Parolti. You
guys can follow me across all of my socials at
Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
It is the Daily Juice