June 3, 2025 • 14 mins
The true state of the property market often exists in a parallel universe to what's portrayed in mainstream media headlines. While evening news programs continue to peddle doom and gloom narratives about interest rates and market crashes, on-the-ground real estate professionals are witnessing a dramatically different reality.
This eye-opening discussion reveals the disconnect between media coverage and actual market behavior, particularly in what agents call the "essential" property segments. Unlike luxury or discretionary purchases, these essential transactions—first-home buyers entering the market, growing families upsizing, empty-nesters downsizing—continue to drive significant activity regardless of broader economic conditions. The evidence is compelling: a two-bedroom unit recently jumped nearly $100,000 in sale price within weeks as buyer numbers at open homes suddenly doubled. In Sydney's Northern Beaches, two-bedroom units that were available for $750,000 just 20 months ago are now pushing $950,000, representing substantial appreciation that contradicts prevailing narratives.
For savvy investors and homebuyers, understanding which market segments are truly "essential" provides crucial insight into where growth will occur next. The experts share a valuable 10-year rule to evaluate any property market: values should roughly double over a decade in healthy markets, with more than doubling suggesting an overheated market and less than 50% growth indicating potential upside. By focusing on essential market segments and applying this 10-year rule, you can cut through media noise and identify genuine opportunities as we head toward what appears to be strengthening market conditions through 2025 and into 2026. Speak with your local agent about how these patterns are playing out in your area and what it means for your property decisions.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
People seek the information of what the property
market is up to.
So much so every time us realestate agents meet people, they
will pick and pick and pick,trying to understand what the
property market is doing.
We're going to give you asummary that mainstream media is
never going to give you.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Stay tuned josh web shot.
(00:41):
Good morning mark.
How are?
How are you?
Yeah good, you yeah good good.
Excited to speak a little aboutthis one this morning.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Yeah, so you're out there, You're talking to
prospective commercial tenants,you're talking to prospective
buyers in residential.
You're sort of nicely stretchedacross all the markets in real
estate and you wanted to talkabout this topic this morning.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Yeah, I did.
I've had a lot of interestingconversations.
Obviously, if anyone didn'tknow, novak's a little different
.
Essentially, we have all agentsselling properties under the
banner, so I work with a lot ofbuyers a lot of the time as well
, and one of the main thingsI've had come back to me over
(01:29):
the last two weeks specificallyis what people are hearing on TV
or the media versus reality,and that being that they're
missing out on properties orproperties are going, or you
know, far exceeding theirexpectations in terms of price,
but when they're at home at 7o'clock for the 6 36 o'clock
(01:50):
news, it's, it's doom and gloom.
Oh, my god, you know what'sgonna happen interest rates,
this, that.
So I guess they're veryconfused because they hear one
thing from online news, allthose sources, and then they're
in amongst the the property, uh,buying journey and if they find
it to be quite different oh,you know, I like doom and boom
(02:16):
because you know you open uplike one, one thing and then,
like three days later you'rehaving something.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
You're like I thought , like you know the market's
gonna explode.
No, it's gonna.
It's, it's hard, um, and, andyou know what's different these
days I love the saying um, um,actually people when I say it
and they go how's, you know,how's the house, how's the
(02:42):
property market?
And I go look, it's been reallyreally good the last hundred
years and I think it'll beequally, you know, really really
good the next hundred years,and they're like that's not the,
it's not the answer people want, but it is the reality.
So you know, it's one of thosethings.
Where we are, we are, ourappetite for information on the
(03:07):
spot, straightaway, is fargreater than what it ever, ever,
ever, ever used to be.
So you know, people'sconsumption of it's almost like
checking your watch, checkingthe time.
It's like almost like theproperty market.
People used to just be a lotmore.
You know you'd get your dataquarterly, you know.
Or you know coming through frombanks and inflation.
(03:32):
Now we're getting our datadaily.
Um, it's, it's it.
It's not not the like.
People are like ice addictswith it.
But you know, people are justmore like what's happening,
what's happening, what'shappening on on the market, very
reactive, very reactive.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Um.
We're talking about a um, anexample um from from one of our
uh teammates in uh or colleagueswithin novak had a property on
market unit two beds, one bath,one car, lock up.
Elderly vendor there needed acertain amount of money to move
(04:11):
on to their, to their next, nextsteps or next journey.
So it'd been on market for fornumerous weeks.
Then all of a sudden, last lasttwo weeks open homes numbers
skyrocketed.
So from originally we werelooking at three to four, all of
a sudden you're getting doubledigits, nine tens and over.
And all of a sudden thatnegotiations price level wise,
(04:37):
almost another 100,000 fromwhere the best offer was from
the previous six weeks, which,unit wise, is huge, almost 10
percent.
Um, so that factor of newbuyers entering the market, um,
I think we're speaking aboutthat two better under a mil is
the stock.
That seems to be going crazyright now.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Um, and that was one of the big uh examples we had
yeah, look and that, that coreunit market, that sort of you
know two bettors between 750 to950, that's a big market in the
northern beaches of sydney.
Um, it's sort of slightlytucked on, uh, around the first
(05:20):
home buyer market.
It's a huge, huge market andI've witnessed just in the last
20 months you could have putyour finger on a two better for
$750,000.
Quite comfortably.
Now we're from what we'reseeing like right up to now as
(05:43):
in today that figure's gettingmore towards 950.
That's a frightening.
The data wouldn't come throughon that for p, for you know rp
data or for banks and stuff likethat.
But I've got a feeling, guysand girls who are watching, um,
I've got a feeling guys andgirls who are watching, um, I've
got a feeling there's there's areal big rumble in that
affordable market for units andhouses big rumble yeah, I
(06:10):
definitely.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
You can definitely feel, um, you feel something's
coming.
You start to see it in thelittle things, um, you know, a
little bit faster in terms ofcommitment from buyers, your,
your numbers starting to stackup at open homes, um, and, and
it does really have that feel.
And then what we were talkingabout this morning, before we
got on, was that essentialmarket of your, you know, your
(06:35):
entry-level houses, yourentry-level units.
Well then, how does that affectthe rest of the market?
Um, and, and where does thatmoney, money flow on to?
Did you want to go through thatmark?
What we spoke about thismorning?
Speaker 1 (06:46):
yeah, look, I think it's interesting the word you
just used, essential um, the,the, the word that's coined
around by governments isaffordable um, and I think
everyone raises their theireyebrow to that, to that word,
because it's like how the hellcan affordable be?
Blah, blah, blah.
Rent or blah, blah, blah.
(07:06):
It's sort of, it's not sort ofone size fits all.
Um, it actually almost insultspeople using that word
affordable um, because it's likeman, how are you going to
afford a unit for a millionbucks?
That ain't affordable.
I love the word essentialbecause I think essential is one
of those, a section of themarket at the moment where the
(07:32):
business has got to be done.
You know it's an essential partof the market because they're
selling their one bedrooms andthey're going into two bedrooms.
That's essential.
It's an essential part of themarket because they're selling
their one bedrooms and they'regoing into two bedrooms.
That's essential.
The family's growing.
Or they're going out of the twobedroom into a three bedroom
townhouse can't afford a house.
That's essential.
Or they're going in from thetownhouse to the little house
that's essential.
Going from the five bedroomhome to the five bedroom
(07:55):
waterfront ain't nowhere nearessential.
So the parts of the marketsthat we can identify as agents
at the moment that are doingexceptionally well are the
essential parts of the market.
Now, the thing that I loveabout that is that's applicable
to all parts of Sydney.
You can say in any part ofSydney oh yes, that's an
(08:16):
essential type of price point orcategory of property that is
not essential.
Very easy to identify that way.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Yeah, wow.
And then, like you said, yougot that flow and effect of,
obviously, your smaller unitgoing to a bigger unit.
You're then your seller of thebigger unit going into an entry
level house, bigger unit goinginto an entry level house.
So it's almost like a foodchain of sorts.
But once it starts to beginfrom the start, from your first
home buyers, that shoulddefinitely follow through and it
(08:48):
sort of lines up with theirexpectations of a better growth
rate in 2026.
If we're starting to see thisnow, heading into the third
quarter of 2025, it definitelygives that time for that price
action to move up through theasset classes and makes 2026
look like a good year forproperty.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
Well, I think, on going out on that, I think if I
was to be punting, that's whatI'd exactly say Look, look, I
think we've got to be carefulhere.
When rates go down, you, youmark your economies sort of shit
the bed right, it's not.
(09:30):
It's not a good, it's not agood.
We all pray for the rates to godown, but we don't pray for the
economy to be crap.
So when they're trying tocorrect, they're trying to make
good and get people, you know,kicking, kicking along a little
bit more.
When they're bringing the ratesdown, normally when property
(09:50):
prices are absolutelyskyrocketing, that's when you'll
see them put rates up.
Um, so it's sort of like bereal careful what you wish for.
Because at the moment I dothink what you said part of me
saying, well, the economy's, youknow ain't, ain't that good
that they're bringing the ratesdown.
Then part of me saying, oh,market, the essential part of
(10:12):
the market's going to boom.
I think you're right and Ithink, guys and girls, if you
want to, if you want to look, ifyou want to identify in your
marketplace, you know what youshould be buying and what's
going to perform.
Well, you know, essential wouldbe, it would be good, essential
, put your essential glasses onwhether you're an investor,
whether you're an owner,occupier.
(10:32):
Um, and let's face it, youain't going to be doing anything
luxury on a on a on a on a 10interest rate.
But you are going to be doinganything luxury on a on a, on a
on a 10 interest rate.
But you are going to be doingsomething luxury on a two
percent interest rate.
So we've come off anenvironment where money was you
know, it wasn't for free, but itwas almost for free and we're
in firmly in an environment nowwhere the rates are, you know,
(10:56):
above median, I wouldn't sayexpensive, but you know it, it
forces your hand to be a littlebit more conservative in
spending with property prices orinvesting bottom line I'm I
reckon we're gonna see.
Oh, I was with a bunch ofprivate bankers last night and
something that I thought wasvery, very interesting that we
(11:19):
were talking about was they werechatting, asking me pretty much
this question, and what I wassaying is in any of your markets
where you are, check if yourmarket is overcooked, check if
your market is undercooked.
That is going to identify whatyour property market's going to
(11:42):
be doing and the way you do thatand, josh, you probably hear me
rattle on about this all thetime is your rolling 10-year
average of capital growth.
If your property values thatyou're looking at have already
doubled over a 10-year period,then I would suggest you're on
track.
If they've more than doubledover the last 10 years, I would
(12:03):
suggest your market's overcookedand I wouldn't be buying that
asset.
If your market is 50% over thelast 10 years, I think you've
got some good room for growth.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
It is a great metric and probably something very
handy Mark for people to use.
Engage.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
Ask your local agent if you can't get your finger on
the data.
But CoreLogic and RP dataaggregates all that information,
ie houses in all the suburbsaround our area, 10 suburbs
they've all done in between 95to 105 percent.
They've doubled units.
(12:43):
They're the rolling 10 yearaverage.
The last last 10 years, 50 onbanking strata essential stuff
is going to do very well.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
On banking houses are going to level out a little bit
wow, I'd say I'd probably be uhon trend with you there.
I think units will continue todo well that aging population.
Um, we've got a couple of newsets coming out over at Casa Del
Mar, hamptons and Havana downin DY and yeah, they've been
(13:14):
snapped up quite well.
So I think it'll be interestingto see how these off-the-plan
projects perform heading into amarket in 18 months, 12 months'
time.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Yeah Well, those retirees that's essential,
Exactly.
They just can't do the houseany longer.
They've been there for 52 years.
They've got to get a unit.
They will go into that segmentof the market because it's an
essential move and they ain'tgot time.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Exactly right.
I think we covered that thismorning, Mark.
That was good info out forviewers.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Hopefully we helped some people that are scratching
their head.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
The property market can do that to you yeah, have a
great day, mate.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
Thank you so much no worries, thanks guys.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Have a great day, guys.
Cheers, bye.
I'm the ringleader.
People seek the information of what the property
market is up to.
So much so every time us realestate agents meet people, they
will pick and pick and pick,trying to understand what the
property market is doing.
We're going to give you asummary that mainstream media is
never going to give you.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Stay tuned josh web shot.
(00:41):
Good morning mark.
How are?
How are you?
Yeah good, you yeah good good.
Excited to speak a little aboutthis one this morning.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Yeah, so you're out there, You're talking to
prospective commercial tenants,you're talking to prospective
buyers in residential.
You're sort of nicely stretchedacross all the markets in real
estate and you wanted to talkabout this topic this morning.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Yeah, I did.
I've had a lot of interestingconversations.
Obviously, if anyone didn'tknow, novak's a little different
.
Essentially, we have all agentsselling properties under the
banner, so I work with a lot ofbuyers a lot of the time as well
, and one of the main thingsI've had come back to me over
(01:29):
the last two weeks specificallyis what people are hearing on TV
or the media versus reality,and that being that they're
missing out on properties orproperties are going, or you
know, far exceeding theirexpectations in terms of price,
but when they're at home at 7o'clock for the 6 36 o'clock
(01:50):
news, it's, it's doom and gloom.
Oh, my god, you know what'sgonna happen interest rates,
this, that.
So I guess they're veryconfused because they hear one
thing from online news, allthose sources, and then they're
in amongst the the property, uh,buying journey and if they find
it to be quite different oh,you know, I like doom and boom
(02:16):
because you know you open uplike one, one thing and then,
like three days later you'rehaving something.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
You're like I thought , like you know the market's
gonna explode.
No, it's gonna.
It's, it's hard, um, and, andyou know what's different these
days I love the saying um, um,actually people when I say it
and they go how's, you know,how's the house, how's the
(02:42):
property market?
And I go look, it's been reallyreally good the last hundred
years and I think it'll beequally, you know, really really
good the next hundred years,and they're like that's not the,
it's not the answer people want, but it is the reality.
So you know, it's one of thosethings.
Where we are, we are, ourappetite for information on the
(03:07):
spot, straightaway, is fargreater than what it ever, ever,
ever, ever used to be.
So you know, people'sconsumption of it's almost like
checking your watch, checkingthe time.
It's like almost like theproperty market.
People used to just be a lotmore.
You know you'd get your dataquarterly, you know.
Or you know coming through frombanks and inflation.
(03:32):
Now we're getting our datadaily.
Um, it's, it's it.
It's not not the like.
People are like ice addictswith it.
But you know, people are justmore like what's happening,
what's happening, what'shappening on on the market, very
reactive, very reactive.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Um.
We're talking about a um, anexample um from from one of our
uh teammates in uh or colleagueswithin novak had a property on
market unit two beds, one bath,one car, lock up.
Elderly vendor there needed acertain amount of money to move
(04:11):
on to their, to their next, nextsteps or next journey.
So it'd been on market for fornumerous weeks.
Then all of a sudden, last lasttwo weeks open homes numbers
skyrocketed.
So from originally we werelooking at three to four, all of
a sudden you're getting doubledigits, nine tens and over.
And all of a sudden thatnegotiations price level wise,
(04:37):
almost another 100,000 fromwhere the best offer was from
the previous six weeks, which,unit wise, is huge, almost 10
percent.
Um, so that factor of newbuyers entering the market, um,
I think we're speaking aboutthat two better under a mil is
the stock.
That seems to be going crazyright now.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Um, and that was one of the big uh examples we had
yeah, look and that, that coreunit market, that sort of you
know two bettors between 750 to950, that's a big market in the
northern beaches of sydney.
Um, it's sort of slightlytucked on, uh, around the first
(05:20):
home buyer market.
It's a huge, huge market andI've witnessed just in the last
20 months you could have putyour finger on a two better for
$750,000.
Quite comfortably.
Now we're from what we'reseeing like right up to now as
(05:43):
in today that figure's gettingmore towards 950.
That's a frightening.
The data wouldn't come throughon that for p, for you know rp
data or for banks and stuff likethat.
But I've got a feeling, guysand girls who are watching, um,
I've got a feeling guys andgirls who are watching, um, I've
got a feeling there's there's areal big rumble in that
affordable market for units andhouses big rumble yeah, I
(06:10):
definitely.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
You can definitely feel, um, you feel something's
coming.
You start to see it in thelittle things, um, you know, a
little bit faster in terms ofcommitment from buyers, your,
your numbers starting to stackup at open homes, um, and, and
it does really have that feel.
And then what we were talkingabout this morning, before we
got on, was that essentialmarket of your, you know, your
(06:35):
entry-level houses, yourentry-level units.
Well then, how does that affectthe rest of the market?
Um, and, and where does thatmoney, money flow on to?
Did you want to go through thatmark?
What we spoke about thismorning?
Speaker 1 (06:46):
yeah, look, I think it's interesting the word you
just used, essential um, the,the, the word that's coined
around by governments isaffordable um, and I think
everyone raises their theireyebrow to that, to that word,
because it's like how the hellcan affordable be?
Blah, blah, blah.
Rent or blah, blah, blah.
(07:06):
It's sort of, it's not sort ofone size fits all.
Um, it actually almost insultspeople using that word
affordable um, because it's likeman, how are you going to
afford a unit for a millionbucks?
That ain't affordable.
I love the word essentialbecause I think essential is one
of those, a section of themarket at the moment where the
(07:32):
business has got to be done.
You know it's an essential partof the market because they're
selling their one bedrooms andthey're going into two bedrooms.
That's essential.
It's an essential part of themarket because they're selling
their one bedrooms and they'regoing into two bedrooms.
That's essential.
The family's growing.
Or they're going out of the twobedroom into a three bedroom
townhouse can't afford a house.
That's essential.
Or they're going in from thetownhouse to the little house
that's essential.
Going from the five bedroomhome to the five bedroom
(07:55):
waterfront ain't nowhere nearessential.
So the parts of the marketsthat we can identify as agents
at the moment that are doingexceptionally well are the
essential parts of the market.
Now, the thing that I loveabout that is that's applicable
to all parts of Sydney.
You can say in any part ofSydney oh yes, that's an
(08:16):
essential type of price point orcategory of property that is
not essential.
Very easy to identify that way.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Yeah, wow.
And then, like you said, yougot that flow and effect of,
obviously, your smaller unitgoing to a bigger unit.
You're then your seller of thebigger unit going into an entry
level house, bigger unit goinginto an entry level house.
So it's almost like a foodchain of sorts.
But once it starts to beginfrom the start, from your first
home buyers, that shoulddefinitely follow through and it
(08:48):
sort of lines up with theirexpectations of a better growth
rate in 2026.
If we're starting to see thisnow, heading into the third
quarter of 2025, it definitelygives that time for that price
action to move up through theasset classes and makes 2026
look like a good year forproperty.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
Well, I think, on going out on that, I think if I
was to be punting, that's whatI'd exactly say Look, look, I
think we've got to be carefulhere.
When rates go down, you, youmark your economies sort of shit
the bed right, it's not.
(09:30):
It's not a good, it's not agood.
We all pray for the rates to godown, but we don't pray for the
economy to be crap.
So when they're trying tocorrect, they're trying to make
good and get people, you know,kicking, kicking along a little
bit more.
When they're bringing the ratesdown, normally when property
(09:50):
prices are absolutelyskyrocketing, that's when you'll
see them put rates up.
Um, so it's sort of like bereal careful what you wish for.
Because at the moment I dothink what you said part of me
saying, well, the economy's, youknow ain't, ain't that good
that they're bringing the ratesdown.
Then part of me saying, oh,market, the essential part of
(10:12):
the market's going to boom.
I think you're right and Ithink, guys and girls, if you
want to, if you want to look, ifyou want to identify in your
marketplace, you know what youshould be buying and what's
going to perform.
Well, you know, essential wouldbe, it would be good, essential
, put your essential glasses onwhether you're an investor,
whether you're an owner,occupier.
(10:32):
Um, and let's face it, youain't going to be doing anything
luxury on a on a on a on a 10interest rate.
But you are going to be doinganything luxury on a on a, on a
on a 10 interest rate.
But you are going to be doingsomething luxury on a two
percent interest rate.
So we've come off anenvironment where money was you
know, it wasn't for free, but itwas almost for free and we're
in firmly in an environment nowwhere the rates are, you know,
(10:56):
above median, I wouldn't sayexpensive, but you know it, it
forces your hand to be a littlebit more conservative in
spending with property prices orinvesting bottom line I'm I
reckon we're gonna see.
Oh, I was with a bunch ofprivate bankers last night and
something that I thought wasvery, very interesting that we
(11:19):
were talking about was they werechatting, asking me pretty much
this question, and what I wassaying is in any of your markets
where you are, check if yourmarket is overcooked, check if
your market is undercooked.
That is going to identify whatyour property market's going to
(11:42):
be doing and the way you do thatand, josh, you probably hear me
rattle on about this all thetime is your rolling 10-year
average of capital growth.
If your property values thatyou're looking at have already
doubled over a 10-year period,then I would suggest you're on
track.
If they've more than doubledover the last 10 years, I would
(12:03):
suggest your market's overcookedand I wouldn't be buying that
asset.
If your market is 50% over thelast 10 years, I think you've
got some good room for growth.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
It is a great metric and probably something very
handy Mark for people to use.
Engage.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
Ask your local agent if you can't get your finger on
the data.
But CoreLogic and RP dataaggregates all that information,
ie houses in all the suburbsaround our area, 10 suburbs
they've all done in between 95to 105 percent.
They've doubled units.
(12:43):
They're the rolling 10 yearaverage.
The last last 10 years, 50 onbanking strata essential stuff
is going to do very well.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
On banking houses are going to level out a little bit
wow, I'd say I'd probably be uhon trend with you there.
I think units will continue todo well that aging population.
Um, we've got a couple of newsets coming out over at Casa Del
Mar, hamptons and Havana downin DY and yeah, they've been
(13:14):
snapped up quite well.
So I think it'll be interestingto see how these off-the-plan
projects perform heading into amarket in 18 months, 12 months'
time.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Yeah Well, those retirees that's essential,
Exactly.
They just can't do the houseany longer.
They've been there for 52 years.
They've got to get a unit.
They will go into that segmentof the market because it's an
essential move and they ain'tgot time.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Exactly right.
I think we covered that thismorning, Mark.
That was good info out forviewers.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Hopefully we helped some people that are scratching
their head.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
The property market can do that to you yeah, have a
great day, mate.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
Thank you so much no worries, thanks guys.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Have a great day, guys.
Cheers, bye.
I'm the ringleader.
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