November 3, 2023 • 29 mins
"The Great Reset" is a show about the future of finance. Money is power, and there is a historic fight to control the mechanisms of power. What people, groups, and nations will control the financial systems of the future? And what will be their medium of exchange?
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Morgan, we're gonna talk about the future of finance
with John Person, 39 yeartrading professional.
Co-founder of Jperson AssetManagement.
Tell me about all these centralbanks, all these central
bankers kind of repeating thesame line, the same speech
recently about how they did itor the inflation's in check.
(00:22):
It's what they're doing isworking.
They're almost done with theircampaign.
Give me your evaluation ofthose statements and how the
markets reacted.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Okay, great point.
And we all know that inflationhas been becoming, for the last
year and a half, a heavy weighton not just consumers but now
anyone that's invested in themarket, now the central bankers.
I wouldn't say that without adoubt they're in a concerted
(00:57):
effort in a one world economy tobe in concert together.
If we go back first, before Ianswer that question, we have a
lot of banks here.
The regional banks in theUnited States had a lot of
issues because rates went up alot faster and higher and a lot
of these banks felt that well,depositors don't wanna put their
money in anything.
(01:18):
We're not gonna offer any highrates for just parking their
money here.
So let's use that money andwe'll invest it into what's
known as swaps derivative swapswith a rate yield between the
United States Fed funds rate inthe European central bank set
rate.
So what happens in March when acouple people come into Silicon
(01:40):
Valley Bank and say we want ourmoney right now?
They made a draw on the bankand the bank couldn't cash out
those derivatives because theybought them here and they could
be safe if they held it tomaturity.
Maturity might be another yearout If someone says I want my
money today and you got 364 moredays that you have to hold,
that you got a problem and yougotta sell it a loss.
(02:00):
So the bank took this huge loss.
So that's one of the elementsof why higher interest rates,
and Jay Powell, who is the headof the Federal Reserve, and
Christine Lagarde, who's thehead of the European central
bank, and Bailey, who's head ofthe Bank of England, all
recently, we've had those threecentral banks all come out in
(02:22):
the last five business daysstating we're not gonna raise
interest rates for XYZ reasons.
And so what they're saying isone thing, but what the real
reason is?
They all raised rates too far,too fast to help rein in
inflation.
In the meantime, they've causedto solve one problem, they've
(02:43):
created multiple others.
So I think they're all inconcert together to pause, and
that's all we've gotten, andthey've all three mentioned.
There's the inflation is comingdown.
Well, we know egg prices aredown.
That's great.
But what we have seen which isinteresting, despite the war and
the terrible act that Hamas didagainst Israel and created
(03:08):
escalated tension in the MiddleEast, what we have seen is that
oil prices have not escalated.
That a lot of people thoughtwas Crude oil did not go to 100.
Reformulated blend gasoline thestuff we put in our car that
did not go to $3 on the futuresmarket.
In fact we're trading around220 right now.
We're down around 17% from lastmonth's prices.
(03:32):
So there is a trajectory ofcertain things creating a
detrend in inflation and thatgave them room to pause.
So, with that backdrop story,what does this mean?
I believe that all centralbankers, the three big heads
European central bank, the USand again the Bank of England
they all need to make sure thattheir interest rates are uneven
(03:55):
keel.
If one country goes up morethan the other, it's gonna cause
a distortion against moneyflows around the three big major
economies.
So therefore they part.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
What about how Japan's doing something
different, and what about whatis China doing?
Speaker 2 (04:12):
All right.
So in the Asian market,especially Japan, japan's been
in a zero interest rate policyfor, I guess, my whole lifetime.
That's a lot, because I gotgray hair right, john.
So they are talking up they'retalking up a potential change,
but they haven't really movedaggressively any way one way or
(04:34):
another on their interest ratepolicies.
They've been talking it up.
As far as China is concerned,with their massive lockdown
COVID policy that they had,their economy was at almost a
standstill to a degree.
So China, they're back into thebuilding up phase right now and
as they start to build up,that's gonna reaccelerate one of
(04:59):
two things In the next year,inflation could revamp higher,
or they're going to and this isthe tricky part.
I don't know where we're gonnastand with foreign government
relationships with China but ifthey revamp all their
manufacturing, theirproductivity goes up, producing
(05:21):
more goods and services at acheaper rate, thus supplying the
world with parts again, andthat reduces inflation.
So those are two concepts thatI'm not quite sure I haven't put
my finger on.
I just know that if youincrease productivity, if you
put out more goods and servicesat less energy and cost, that's
(05:43):
deflationary.
So China might be part of thestory that if they get their
manufacturing back in place andthe trade war starts to subside,
Remember, we've got currentPresident Biden saying we're not
selling you any semiconductorsand we don't like you
interfering with Taiwan, and sowe've got escalation of tensions
(06:05):
with China right now.
And so President Xi I mean he'spretty much in control over in
China and has some pretty goodpartners right now, if you think
about it, and so he doesn'tneed the maybe the US, because
he can trade with Russia, middleEast, india, they can go to
(06:25):
South America, for example.
Americans soil we still need,you know, barbie dolls and
things like that for Christmas.
So we do still need China'smanufacturing.
But, all in all, this is aworld market that things need to
.
If we escalate tensions amongstthe superpowers in that regards
(06:45):
, we're going to have moreissues.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Right and that presents a whole bunch of
investment opportunities for,for example, raw materials that
we were getting abroad thatmaybe we want to source
domestically, that kind of thing.
But so the markets reacted toall of these central bankers
pausing favorably.
(07:10):
We've had the indexes up around1%.
You've been trading doingpretty well.
The last week you said tell meabout some of the stocks that
you've been keeping your eye on,or some of the trades or
sectors or indexes that you'vebeen paying attention to.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Absolutely.
So a couple of things that Ilike is I liked again AMD.
Their earnings were a littlescary for me.
I was long AMD because Ibelieve in the artificial
intelligence super chip and Iwanted to hear about.
There's two companies, maybethree.
Intel is on the uptick andthey've got.
They're on the uptick in thesense that they haven't really
(07:53):
sold off.
Relative to comparing Nvidia amonth ago's price to Intel and
video went down, intel held up.
So Intel, I think, still has alot more upside in the next, say
, six months to 18 months.
Amd is on any computer you haveit's.
You've got AMD and you've gotNvidia.
(08:15):
So there's no way where else togo.
And I think AMD, which is intheir last quarterly report not
the one yesterday, but they werementioning their MI 300
processing chip and they did.
Mrs Sue did mention that in theconference call yesterday and
gave some positive guidancegoing forward.
(08:36):
So I think AMD's got strongpotential within the next six
months to maybe trade into the120.
So I'm long AMD for that reason.
Looking at other trades that Ihave, one today we noticed that
with where interest rates are,housing has not I mean new home
(08:57):
construction has gone up.
We know that.
Those are the numbers.
Everyone's buying a new homebecause no one's selling
existing homes.
If people are buying a new home, well they got to put something
in that home.
Are they going to lazy boy?
Are they going to?
Where are they buying theirfurniture from?
Is it Macy's home goods?
(09:17):
Is it home goods with TJ Maxx?
Is it Wayfair?
It could be a combination ofall things there, and so we did
get a bounce out of Wayfair.
One trade that I like is for theholidays and it had kind of a
bad earnings reaction thismorning, but it's bounced higher
is Etsy.
Etsy Now.
(09:37):
I just bought some of thattoday at 60.
I'm looking at my screen rightnow.
I bought just a little bit at$61.94.
So I think it's a low riskbecause they've already sucked
the, I think, a lot of risk outof that trade.
I also am on Google.
I'm also in for a seasonalholiday trade down here
(10:02):
Goodbatter and different Macy's,I think Macy's which owns,
again, federated Departmentstores Bloomingdale's I think
they may see an uptick out ofthis holiday season.
I bought some Morgan Stanley.
I think Morgan Stanley isanother one that, in the banking
sector, could do a lot betterin this environment.
(10:23):
They had pretty decent earningsin Q2.
And then, finally, nike.
There's just no chance that youcan't be long, nike with the
and I'm going to call it theTaylor Swift factor, and people
don't, maybe not like.
What does Nike have to do withTaylor Swift?
Well, she's dating a KansasCity chief and she wears that
(10:45):
jersey.
There's a lot of Swifties outthere that might want to flock.
He's the.
I think he was the fifthhighest selling jersey from the
NFL apparel, which is all madeby Nike.
So NFL authorized jerseys areall sold by, or created or made
by, manufactured by Nike.
Now, another thing is, I knowI'm just gonna say that Taylor
(11:07):
Swift factor, but you got thePhiladelphia Eagles, the New
York Jets.
There's a lot of jet fans outthere in mass quantity.
It would be, you know, insteadof like the, the, the Carolina
Panthers.
You know their base is not asgreat as New York.
So Jersey sales when your teambehind your team.
(11:29):
This is that time frame wherepeople will make more, maybe,
perhaps, purchases.
Then again, what else does Nikemake?
Let's see soccer shoes,football, baseballs we're
talking cleats and, and while Ithink there's a, there was a
discussion on a couple analyststhat Downplayed Nike, saying
their product was stale, andthen someone said that there's
(11:52):
another company called on cloudthat is stealing Market share
form.
I don't believe that's truewhatsoever.
On cloud, I think if you arefamiliar with this product, the
symbols, stock symbols, o, n andthey're made, you know, swiss
design.
They're a fashionable shoe,sneaker, running shoe, but it's
(12:14):
more for, I think, an oldercrowd.
They're more of an expensivesneaker that would maybe what?
Wear a driving shoe that wantsto look hip and cool.
An older guy Like me possibly,instead of wearing a dress shoe,
I could get away with an oncloud.
I wouldn't wear a Nike cleat orI wouldn't be wearing a Nike
running shoe or basketball hightop because I don't play those
(12:35):
sports.
I'm, you know, I'm more in theancient golf world now.
So, with that said, I thinkthere is a better On a global
scale.
I think there's a betteropportunity for Nike and if the
Federal Reserve can pause whichthey have around the globe and
pause on interest rates,bringing back a little bit of
confidence not forever, but justfor a little bit of confidence
(12:56):
for the next 30, 45 days as weenter in the holiday season,
this could incite Consumerconfidence and boost better
Christmas sales.
What are people gonna buy.
I don't think people are gonnabuy frivolous things.
People are not stupid withtheir money.
I think people are gonna lookfor deals and people are gonna
look for Necessities, so thereare gonna get.
(13:17):
Maybe they're gonna buy a messysoccer shirt, you know.
So Soccer is very popular and Ithink Nike is gonna have should
have a pretty good season thisholiday.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Anyway, that's my long Assertation that's
interesting, that's aninteresting analysis said, and I
live in Brazil.
I've lived in Brazil for almostsix years and it's given me a
different perspective on globalbrands, because I've never heard
of on cloud.
No one in Brazil wears on cloud.
But if you give Brazilians Fivethings that they want to buy,
(13:51):
they're gonna choose fivedifferent brands and they're all
global.
Brands are mostlyAmerican-based brands and I have
people coming up to me becauseI'm American and they know I go
to the United States and theysay when you go to the United
States, can you bring me back?
And then I can name the fivethings in one of them's Nike
sneakers.
Okay so so that type of brand isjust so strong globally and,
(14:13):
like you said, okay, they'regonna be other brands that come
and go, but until someone'smaking a basketball shoe that
competes with Jordans, then thenwe can look at market share.
You know, but on the cloud,fancy fashion shoes are not
competing with those Jordans,right?
Speaker 2 (14:33):
So yeah, okay, so that's that input.
I hope your listeners heardthat.
That is like I go to America.
I get a shopping list.
This is what I want.
That's cool.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
Right?
Well, I'll tell you the otherbrands too.
I mean Apple.
I mean they want iPhone.
The iPhone's the number oneproduct.
But there's other Appleproducts that they really like,
like Mac books and Apple watchand these other things.
But even some brands that thatwe think are a little bit passe
Are still really popular inBrazil, like Tommy Hilfiger and
(15:07):
gap and things that were popularin the 90s.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Houston is the name of this, the comp, the parent
company and the stock symbol.
The ticker symbols pvh.
Phillips van Houston is theparent company of Tommy Hilfiger
.
People in America won't wear aTommy Hilfiger, but you go to
South America, you go to LatinAmerica, I mean, and you go to
Europe.
It's interesting, even in Italy, in Rome, tommy Hilfiger is a
(15:33):
popular blunt brand, it'scorrect.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
It's pretty interesting and if you go to
Miami or you go to Florida,where there's a big Latin
community who they fly in toFlorida just to shop, and
they'll go to the Tommy HilfigerOutlets and the gap outlets,
you know, and buy everythingthere very yeah that is true,
yeah, so that's a as good of atrade.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Let me look at pvh.
While we're on the phone, whileyou're looking there, I'm gonna
.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
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Speaker 2 (16:32):
Well, that's interesting.
What are you?
Speaker 1 (16:34):
yeah, what is this?
It looks like Michael.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Blomberg on the bottom left.
Who could it be?
I was gonna say, well, I thinkI don't know who the upper left
is.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
I know who the bottom left is well, you'll never
guess who these two men are, whoare Destroying capitalism,
destroying America.
They have a very devious planand Porter Stansbury created a
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(17:10):
I know who the upper left isnow.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
Was I not supposed to give those names out?
Speaker 1 (17:16):
I think it'd be cool for people to discover for
themselves when they click onthe link below to find out.
Yeah, it was pretty obvious tome that one of them was Michael
Bloomberg.
You put a little square here.
You can still tell who he is.
Yeah, so what did you find whenyou were doing your research
there?
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Um, pvh.
I mean you know it doesn't.
I think there's probably somebetter upside.
I mean it's okay, but I I thinkthere's probably some better
upside on Uh, nike.
In my humble opinion, uh, nikelooks like it's probably got
another 20 25 percent to theupside between now and, say,
february, um it, and it mightcome sooner.
(17:56):
I also think that, uh, some ofthe department stores that will
capture Target, for example, wayundervalued.
Uh, I know they had an issue.
Uh, uh, a pr nightmare, let'scall it.
But bottom line is let's getthrough the pr nightmare.
What cures pr nightmares?
Well, budweiser just didsomething to get themselves out
(18:16):
of the hall, sort of speak withuh, that um, uh was an extreme
Uh mix martial arts or wworldwide wrestling sponsorship
and that had, you know, a boost.
What happens to brands whenthey fall out of favor?
That people like Not the brandbut the product.
(18:37):
Right, beer.
What solves a problem?
If you want to get back intoselling beer?
Lower your price and and and.
Put that out.
That'll cure any marketing thatyou need to spend, or apologies
, or anything like that.
Put lower prices out and you'regonna track the.
You know everyone will lookback and go Well, give me a pack
.
Especially christmas time withtarget and with target it's the
(19:00):
same story.
I mean target, I don't thinkyou know people want to say, gee
, I don't like what they did,but it's like I have to go to
walmart and I have to go hereand target's right there.
Ah, I'm going to target.
So I think consumers are kindof finicky.
They may say one thing, butthey still bet with their
wallets and if target comes out,they do another thing.
Here in america, for a lot ofpeople that Live maybe check to
(19:23):
check, and that's a big problemin america.
But despite that, there is theholidays and no matter how tough
times are, most people willhave something on the christmas
tree for their children.
And and target does somethingstill that maybe and not a lot
of the store is doing.
It's called layaway programs,so people can buy something and
put money down every week and inthe products there for them.
They may not be able to affordit right now, but you know,
(19:46):
whatever the, the, the cabbagepatch doll of 2023 is, for
example, whatever the, the toydu jour is, um, people can go
and say, here, hold this for me,here's a deposit and I'll pay
every week.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
And and and and that's something that is a very
Uh, there is some loyalty tothat type of program with target
people don't, maybe really thatthat, speaking of, uh you know,
comparing brazil to the us, uh,brazil's been has a layaway
economy where they they doeverything by by payment plans.
Anything that they cost morethan Uh $50 is going to be on a
(20:21):
payment plan here.
So so, uh, I know, if, if wages, if the wage situation, if the
wages aren't keeping up with theinflation, uh the prices of
things, then you're probablygoing to see more of this type
of uh Adjustment so that theconsumers can afford to pay for
things.
And I have seen that ine-commerce, when I buy things
(20:45):
from american sites, thatsometimes now they give me the
option to do payments.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
So I'm gonna, I'm gonna delve because I know we're
gonna run out of time and I'mgonna go.
What?
What makes sometimes my mindwork, which, according to my
wife, is a problem?
But, um, we know that there wehave a?
Um, a situation here incongress.
We have a president that wantsto give more money to ukraine,
more money to help supportisrael southern border, and is
(21:10):
asking for more money.
We now have a congress thatsays we're tired of giving money
out and there's going to be abattle.
But, either way, militaryspending will still happen.
And if we take tanks, or moneythat would be diverted to tanks,
and we're going to increasetank uh and or military Hardware
and send it to ukraine and sendit over to israel, um, there's
(21:34):
a couple things that we need.
We got steel that's gone up andit's you know, you could look
at prices of us steel, which hasbeen going higher.
But what goes in those tanksare our engines and diesel
engine.
We don't use teslas in tanksand military operations, right?
So Cummings is, cmi is a stockticker it's down a little bit
today, but they do make thediesel engines for military and
(21:57):
tanks.
So that's number one.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
Number two and, of course, all the construction
Machines.
Yeah, we want to goconstruction.
It's gonna be a global Biggygot.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Diesel engines, it's Cummings, uh, caterpillar also,
but Cummings, um.
So that's one that I would bewatchful of.
But here's one that's a littleoff the chart kind of thinking
if you have a tank that'smilitary green but you're
sending it to the middle east,you're gonna have to paint it
and you're gonna go desert,desert flood Camouflage.
(22:29):
Right, you're not gonna gogreen Garden variety tank,
you're gonna have to camouflagethat and spray paint.
There's two companies thatactually have military Contracts
, which is really bizarre.
People don't realize it.
Small little company calledRust-Oleum a lot of people use
their spray paint.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
No, everyone should know Rust-Oleum.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
But the parent company is our PM, industries,
our PM.
I'll double check the shareprice today.
Now, this might not besomething that you get today,
because when you build a tank,you got to build the tank right
and then the next thing you gotto do is get the tank out there
(23:08):
and then, finally, you wouldpaint the tank.
Rpms around 94.
Still, it had a big update,unfortunately, today.
I thought I could give you acheap price for your listeners
today.
The other one is sure whenWilliams?
Shw is the stock symbol there.
Now, what's interesting aboutsure when Williams?
Not only do they have militarycontracts, they have government
contracts.
Now I don't want to soundDeceitious, but let's say, for
(23:31):
example, they have a governmentcontract and someone, let's say,
in Congress on Capital Hill,gets evicted out of their office
like a Nancy Pelosi and the newguy that comes in to take her
office, they, they want itrepainted.
They're gonna use, actually,sure, when Williams paint so the
White House, congress,government offices and as well
(23:52):
as military.
So sure when Williams, besideshousing, new home construction
Sure, when Williams, stocksymbol SHW there.
And today is the same story.
It's up a little bit off.
It's um, it's.
It was Back in July it was a283 dollars.
It actually is Not far off ofthat level.
(24:14):
We're 245.
So sure, when Williams and Idon't know if it's gonna be a
God send if interest rates areon starting on a decline that we
get the 30 year fix back down.
This might entice people to getout of homes.
You get out of homes or youstay in a home.
You might have to repaint thathome, but either way, paint,
whether it's from residential,military or Government.
(24:39):
Believe it or not, those twocompanies might be worthy of
some upside.
At least there might be someincreased demand in the next
year.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Right, and even when people don't have a lot of money
, the government seems to haveit and doesn't stop spending it
to the deficit spending, and sothey have basically a monopoly
on Government projects there gotto keep.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
That's a.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
That's a recession Proof kind of stock there.
I mean, I've heard that thereare certain stocks you know
there's still gonna be garbageday even if there's a recession,
so you can invest in wastemanagement, for example.
So we were talking before theshow We've got about two minutes
left here About what are somestocks that do well no matter
(25:24):
what happens in the next 90 days, and you were mentioning tech
stocks.
So why did you say that?
Speaker 2 (25:29):
Well, I think, either way, we still use technology
our lifestyle.
No one can live without.
You know, driving in a cartexting.
You know, here in America atleast, it's illegal but everyone
does it.
It's funny.
I've even seen state trooperstexting and in their phone,
while you know, going down I-95here in Florida.
So technology is one thecarriers have always made money.
(25:53):
But they borrowed Verizon and18t borrowed all boatload of
money to build out 5g rates godown.
Those stocks are starting tosee recovery.
18t people will still spendmoney and pay for their phone.
You just said it.
You come up here to Americapeople say get me an iPhone
because people are still gonnause that Communication and they
(26:15):
have to pay that bill beforethey go to McDonald's.
In my humble opinion, peoplewill pay right to upload to.
Speaker 1 (26:22):
Social media.
There's nothing of more of anecessity besides food and water
and housing.
Then your, your, your, your,basically it's your everything
device right.
It's your entertainment, it'syour communication, it's for
work, it's for everything.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
It's changed in.
In our lifetime, or my lifetimeas a kid, I could drive a bike
without a helmet.
Now kids have a cell phone andthey need that cell phone and
they have plans.
So what plan?
It's T-Mobile, it's 18t inVerizon and I think those
companies Maybe they don't go upto the moon and make a three,
four hundred percent return inthe next year.
However, I think it's a safetrade.
(26:57):
They pay a dividend and andit's I think at this point in
time it's a good trade to getback into you.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
And so you're saying that that's.
Two out of the big three hadborrowed a lot of money, so are
you saying there's one?
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Yeah, verizon certainly has a huge debt load
on their 5g built out AT&T.
You know they still hadstructural issues.
But I do believe that if youput a, if you put a gun to my
head as a new investor withlimited cash, at&t has a lower
share price than Verizon, a moreseasoned I, I would probably
(27:35):
prefer Verizon.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
You know, at this point, Okay, yeah, and, and I'm
interested in some thedisruptive Companies in that
space, but they're they're usingthose big threes networks.
So so you can't it's like theinfrastructure.
You can't get around the factthat even if you're investing in
some other company, they'reusing one of the big threes
(28:00):
networks, true, so so thank youfor coming on, john, really
appreciate it.
Where can people go to learnmore about you and your work?
Speaker 2 (28:09):
Well, if they go to, our website was designed for you
know we keep talking about Jperson as and it's a private
fund I run, but they go topersons planet calm.
We created a lot of differentindicators and studies on
various trading platforms,charles Schwab for one.
So, if you go to, you knowthese indicators are built on
(28:33):
tasty works, charles Schwab, wehave.
We have indicators onthinkorswim Trade station and so
basically, a lot of theindicators over the years that
I've developed to help stocktraders and traders in general,
those are on and you can findall of that information on
persons planet calm.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Persons with an S and we're gonna put that in the
description box below.
Thank you, john, for coming on,really appreciate your time.
Speaker 2 (28:59):
Thanks a lot, have a great, have a great week, man.
Thank you, sir, you.
Morgan, we're gonna talk about the future of finance
with John Person, 39 yeartrading professional.
Co-founder of Jperson AssetManagement.
Tell me about all these centralbanks, all these central
bankers kind of repeating thesame line, the same speech
recently about how they did itor the inflation's in check.
(00:22):
It's what they're doing isworking.
They're almost done with theircampaign.
Give me your evaluation ofthose statements and how the
markets reacted.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Okay, great point.
And we all know that inflationhas been becoming, for the last
year and a half, a heavy weighton not just consumers but now
anyone that's invested in themarket, now the central bankers.
I wouldn't say that without adoubt they're in a concerted
(00:57):
effort in a one world economy tobe in concert together.
If we go back first, before Ianswer that question, we have a
lot of banks here.
The regional banks in theUnited States had a lot of
issues because rates went up alot faster and higher and a lot
of these banks felt that well,depositors don't wanna put their
money in anything.
(01:18):
We're not gonna offer any highrates for just parking their
money here.
So let's use that money andwe'll invest it into what's
known as swaps derivative swapswith a rate yield between the
United States Fed funds rate inthe European central bank set
rate.
So what happens in March when acouple people come into Silicon
(01:40):
Valley Bank and say we want ourmoney right now?
They made a draw on the bankand the bank couldn't cash out
those derivatives because theybought them here and they could
be safe if they held it tomaturity.
Maturity might be another yearout If someone says I want my
money today and you got 364 moredays that you have to hold,
that you got a problem and yougotta sell it a loss.
(02:00):
So the bank took this huge loss.
So that's one of the elementsof why higher interest rates,
and Jay Powell, who is the headof the Federal Reserve, and
Christine Lagarde, who's thehead of the European central
bank, and Bailey, who's head ofthe Bank of England, all
recently, we've had those threecentral banks all come out in
(02:22):
the last five business daysstating we're not gonna raise
interest rates for XYZ reasons.
And so what they're saying isone thing, but what the real
reason is?
They all raised rates too far,too fast to help rein in
inflation.
In the meantime, they've causedto solve one problem, they've
(02:43):
created multiple others.
So I think they're all inconcert together to pause, and
that's all we've gotten, andthey've all three mentioned.
There's the inflation is comingdown.
Well, we know egg prices aredown.
That's great.
But what we have seen which isinteresting, despite the war and
the terrible act that Hamas didagainst Israel and created
(03:08):
escalated tension in the MiddleEast, what we have seen is that
oil prices have not escalated.
That a lot of people thoughtwas Crude oil did not go to 100.
Reformulated blend gasoline thestuff we put in our car that
did not go to $3 on the futuresmarket.
In fact we're trading around220 right now.
We're down around 17% from lastmonth's prices.
(03:32):
So there is a trajectory ofcertain things creating a
detrend in inflation and thatgave them room to pause.
So, with that backdrop story,what does this mean?
I believe that all centralbankers, the three big heads
European central bank, the USand again the Bank of England
they all need to make sure thattheir interest rates are uneven
(03:55):
keel.
If one country goes up morethan the other, it's gonna cause
a distortion against moneyflows around the three big major
economies.
So therefore they part.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
What about how Japan's doing something
different, and what about whatis China doing?
Speaker 2 (04:12):
All right.
So in the Asian market,especially Japan, japan's been
in a zero interest rate policyfor, I guess, my whole lifetime.
That's a lot, because I gotgray hair right, john.
So they are talking up they'retalking up a potential change,
but they haven't really movedaggressively any way one way or
(04:34):
another on their interest ratepolicies.
They've been talking it up.
As far as China is concerned,with their massive lockdown
COVID policy that they had,their economy was at almost a
standstill to a degree.
So China, they're back into thebuilding up phase right now and
as they start to build up,that's gonna reaccelerate one of
(04:59):
two things In the next year,inflation could revamp higher,
or they're going to and this isthe tricky part.
I don't know where we're gonnastand with foreign government
relationships with China but ifthey revamp all their
manufacturing, theirproductivity goes up, producing
(05:21):
more goods and services at acheaper rate, thus supplying the
world with parts again, andthat reduces inflation.
So those are two concepts thatI'm not quite sure I haven't put
my finger on.
I just know that if youincrease productivity, if you
put out more goods and servicesat less energy and cost, that's
(05:43):
deflationary.
So China might be part of thestory that if they get their
manufacturing back in place andthe trade war starts to subside,
Remember, we've got currentPresident Biden saying we're not
selling you any semiconductorsand we don't like you
interfering with Taiwan, and sowe've got escalation of tensions
(06:05):
with China right now.
And so President Xi I mean he'spretty much in control over in
China and has some pretty goodpartners right now, if you think
about it, and so he doesn'tneed the maybe the US, because
he can trade with Russia, middleEast, india, they can go to
(06:25):
South America, for example.
Americans soil we still need,you know, barbie dolls and
things like that for Christmas.
So we do still need China'smanufacturing.
But, all in all, this is aworld market that things need to
.
If we escalate tensions amongstthe superpowers in that regards
(06:45):
, we're going to have moreissues.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Right and that presents a whole bunch of
investment opportunities for,for example, raw materials that
we were getting abroad thatmaybe we want to source
domestically, that kind of thing.
But so the markets reacted toall of these central bankers
pausing favorably.
(07:10):
We've had the indexes up around1%.
You've been trading doingpretty well.
The last week you said tell meabout some of the stocks that
you've been keeping your eye on,or some of the trades or
sectors or indexes that you'vebeen paying attention to.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Absolutely.
So a couple of things that Ilike is I liked again AMD.
Their earnings were a littlescary for me.
I was long AMD because Ibelieve in the artificial
intelligence super chip and Iwanted to hear about.
There's two companies, maybethree.
Intel is on the uptick andthey've got.
They're on the uptick in thesense that they haven't really
(07:53):
sold off.
Relative to comparing Nvidia amonth ago's price to Intel and
video went down, intel held up.
So Intel, I think, still has alot more upside in the next, say
, six months to 18 months.
Amd is on any computer you haveit's.
You've got AMD and you've gotNvidia.
(08:15):
So there's no way where else togo.
And I think AMD, which is intheir last quarterly report not
the one yesterday, but they werementioning their MI 300
processing chip and they did.
Mrs Sue did mention that in theconference call yesterday and
gave some positive guidancegoing forward.
(08:36):
So I think AMD's got strongpotential within the next six
months to maybe trade into the120.
So I'm long AMD for that reason.
Looking at other trades that Ihave, one today we noticed that
with where interest rates are,housing has not I mean new home
(08:57):
construction has gone up.
We know that.
Those are the numbers.
Everyone's buying a new homebecause no one's selling
existing homes.
If people are buying a new home, well they got to put something
in that home.
Are they going to lazy boy?
Are they going to?
Where are they buying theirfurniture from?
Is it Macy's home goods?
(09:17):
Is it home goods with TJ Maxx?
Is it Wayfair?
It could be a combination ofall things there, and so we did
get a bounce out of Wayfair.
One trade that I like is for theholidays and it had kind of a
bad earnings reaction thismorning, but it's bounced higher
is Etsy.
Etsy Now.
(09:37):
I just bought some of thattoday at 60.
I'm looking at my screen rightnow.
I bought just a little bit at$61.94.
So I think it's a low riskbecause they've already sucked
the, I think, a lot of risk outof that trade.
I also am on Google.
I'm also in for a seasonalholiday trade down here
(10:02):
Goodbatter and different Macy's,I think Macy's which owns,
again, federated Departmentstores Bloomingdale's I think
they may see an uptick out ofthis holiday season.
I bought some Morgan Stanley.
I think Morgan Stanley isanother one that, in the banking
sector, could do a lot betterin this environment.
(10:23):
They had pretty decent earningsin Q2.
And then, finally, nike.
There's just no chance that youcan't be long, nike with the
and I'm going to call it theTaylor Swift factor, and people
don't, maybe not like.
What does Nike have to do withTaylor Swift?
Well, she's dating a KansasCity chief and she wears that
(10:45):
jersey.
There's a lot of Swifties outthere that might want to flock.
He's the.
I think he was the fifthhighest selling jersey from the
NFL apparel, which is all madeby Nike.
So NFL authorized jerseys areall sold by, or created or made
by, manufactured by Nike.
Now, another thing is, I knowI'm just gonna say that Taylor
(11:07):
Swift factor, but you got thePhiladelphia Eagles, the New
York Jets.
There's a lot of jet fans outthere in mass quantity.
It would be, you know, insteadof like the, the, the Carolina
Panthers.
You know their base is not asgreat as New York.
So Jersey sales when your teambehind your team.
(11:29):
This is that time frame wherepeople will make more, maybe,
perhaps, purchases.
Then again, what else does Nikemake?
Let's see soccer shoes,football, baseballs we're
talking cleats and, and while Ithink there's a, there was a
discussion on a couple analyststhat Downplayed Nike, saying
their product was stale, andthen someone said that there's
(11:52):
another company called on cloudthat is stealing Market share
form.
I don't believe that's truewhatsoever.
On cloud, I think if you arefamiliar with this product, the
symbols, stock symbols, o, n andthey're made, you know, swiss
design.
They're a fashionable shoe,sneaker, running shoe, but it's
(12:14):
more for, I think, an oldercrowd.
They're more of an expensivesneaker that would maybe what?
Wear a driving shoe that wantsto look hip and cool.
An older guy Like me possibly,instead of wearing a dress shoe,
I could get away with an oncloud.
I wouldn't wear a Nike cleat orI wouldn't be wearing a Nike
running shoe or basketball hightop because I don't play those
(12:35):
sports.
I'm, you know, I'm more in theancient golf world now.
So, with that said, I thinkthere is a better On a global
scale.
I think there's a betteropportunity for Nike and if the
Federal Reserve can pause whichthey have around the globe and
pause on interest rates,bringing back a little bit of
confidence not forever, but justfor a little bit of confidence
(12:56):
for the next 30, 45 days as weenter in the holiday season,
this could incite Consumerconfidence and boost better
Christmas sales.
What are people gonna buy.
I don't think people are gonnabuy frivolous things.
People are not stupid withtheir money.
I think people are gonna lookfor deals and people are gonna
look for Necessities, so thereare gonna get.
(13:17):
Maybe they're gonna buy a messysoccer shirt, you know.
So Soccer is very popular and Ithink Nike is gonna have should
have a pretty good season thisholiday.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Anyway, that's my long Assertation that's
interesting, that's aninteresting analysis said, and I
live in Brazil.
I've lived in Brazil for almostsix years and it's given me a
different perspective on globalbrands, because I've never heard
of on cloud.
No one in Brazil wears on cloud.
But if you give Brazilians Fivethings that they want to buy,
(13:51):
they're gonna choose fivedifferent brands and they're all
global.
Brands are mostlyAmerican-based brands and I have
people coming up to me becauseI'm American and they know I go
to the United States and theysay when you go to the United
States, can you bring me back?
And then I can name the fivethings in one of them's Nike
sneakers.
Okay so so that type of brand isjust so strong globally and,
(14:13):
like you said, okay, they'regonna be other brands that come
and go, but until someone'smaking a basketball shoe that
competes with Jordans, then thenwe can look at market share.
You know, but on the cloud,fancy fashion shoes are not
competing with those Jordans,right?
Speaker 2 (14:33):
So yeah, okay, so that's that input.
I hope your listeners heardthat.
That is like I go to America.
I get a shopping list.
This is what I want.
That's cool.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
Right?
Well, I'll tell you the otherbrands too.
I mean Apple.
I mean they want iPhone.
The iPhone's the number oneproduct.
But there's other Appleproducts that they really like,
like Mac books and Apple watchand these other things.
But even some brands that thatwe think are a little bit passe
Are still really popular inBrazil, like Tommy Hilfiger and
(15:07):
gap and things that were popularin the 90s.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Houston is the name of this, the comp, the parent
company and the stock symbol.
The ticker symbols pvh.
Phillips van Houston is theparent company of Tommy Hilfiger
.
People in America won't wear aTommy Hilfiger, but you go to
South America, you go to LatinAmerica, I mean, and you go to
Europe.
It's interesting, even in Italy, in Rome, tommy Hilfiger is a
(15:33):
popular blunt brand, it'scorrect.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
It's pretty interesting and if you go to
Miami or you go to Florida,where there's a big Latin
community who they fly in toFlorida just to shop, and
they'll go to the Tommy HilfigerOutlets and the gap outlets,
you know, and buy everythingthere very yeah that is true,
yeah, so that's a as good of atrade.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Let me look at pvh.
While we're on the phone, whileyou're looking there, I'm gonna
.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
I'm gonna do a quick Word from our sponsor here, sure
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(16:22):
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Speaker 2 (16:32):
Well, that's interesting.
What are you?
Speaker 1 (16:34):
yeah, what is this?
It looks like Michael.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Blomberg on the bottom left.
Who could it be?
I was gonna say, well, I thinkI don't know who the upper left
is.
Speaker 1 (16:47):
I know who the bottom left is well, you'll never
guess who these two men are, whoare Destroying capitalism,
destroying America.
They have a very devious planand Porter Stansbury created a
documentary about these two menIs.
The name of the documentary isthe two men, and we have a link
to watch this free documentarybelow.
So check that, check out thatfree documentary the two men.
(17:10):
I know who the upper left isnow.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
Was I not supposed to give those names out?
Speaker 1 (17:16):
I think it'd be cool for people to discover for
themselves when they click onthe link below to find out.
Yeah, it was pretty obvious tome that one of them was Michael
Bloomberg.
You put a little square here.
You can still tell who he is.
Yeah, so what did you find whenyou were doing your research
there?
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Um, pvh.
I mean you know it doesn't.
I think there's probably somebetter upside.
I mean it's okay, but I I thinkthere's probably some better
upside on Uh, nike.
In my humble opinion, uh, nikelooks like it's probably got
another 20 25 percent to theupside between now and, say,
february, um it, and it mightcome sooner.
(17:56):
I also think that, uh, some ofthe department stores that will
capture Target, for example, wayundervalued.
Uh, I know they had an issue.
Uh, uh, a pr nightmare, let'scall it.
But bottom line is let's getthrough the pr nightmare.
What cures pr nightmares?
Well, budweiser just didsomething to get themselves out
(18:16):
of the hall, sort of speak withuh, that um, uh was an extreme
Uh mix martial arts or wworldwide wrestling sponsorship
and that had, you know, a boost.
What happens to brands whenthey fall out of favor?
That people like Not the brandbut the product.
(18:37):
Right, beer.
What solves a problem?
If you want to get back intoselling beer?
Lower your price and and and.
Put that out.
That'll cure any marketing thatyou need to spend, or apologies
, or anything like that.
Put lower prices out and you'regonna track the.
You know everyone will lookback and go Well, give me a pack
.
Especially christmas time withtarget and with target it's the
(19:00):
same story.
I mean target, I don't thinkyou know people want to say, gee
, I don't like what they did,but it's like I have to go to
walmart and I have to go hereand target's right there.
Ah, I'm going to target.
So I think consumers are kindof finicky.
They may say one thing, butthey still bet with their
wallets and if target comes out,they do another thing.
Here in america, for a lot ofpeople that Live maybe check to
(19:23):
check, and that's a big problemin america.
But despite that, there is theholidays and no matter how tough
times are, most people willhave something on the christmas
tree for their children.
And and target does somethingstill that maybe and not a lot
of the store is doing.
It's called layaway programs,so people can buy something and
put money down every week and inthe products there for them.
They may not be able to affordit right now, but you know,
(19:46):
whatever the, the, the cabbagepatch doll of 2023 is, for
example, whatever the, the toydu jour is, um, people can go
and say, here, hold this for me,here's a deposit and I'll pay
every week.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
And and and and that's something that is a very
Uh, there is some loyalty tothat type of program with target
people don't, maybe really thatthat, speaking of, uh you know,
comparing brazil to the us, uh,brazil's been has a layaway
economy where they they doeverything by by payment plans.
Anything that they cost morethan Uh $50 is going to be on a
(20:21):
payment plan here.
So so, uh, I know, if, if wages, if the wage situation, if the
wages aren't keeping up with theinflation, uh the prices of
things, then you're probablygoing to see more of this type
of uh Adjustment so that theconsumers can afford to pay for
things.
And I have seen that ine-commerce, when I buy things
(20:45):
from american sites, thatsometimes now they give me the
option to do payments.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
So I'm gonna, I'm gonna delve because I know we're
gonna run out of time and I'mgonna go.
What?
What makes sometimes my mindwork, which, according to my
wife, is a problem?
But, um, we know that there wehave a?
Um, a situation here incongress.
We have a president that wantsto give more money to ukraine,
more money to help supportisrael southern border, and is
(21:10):
asking for more money.
We now have a congress thatsays we're tired of giving money
out and there's going to be abattle.
But, either way, militaryspending will still happen.
And if we take tanks, or moneythat would be diverted to tanks,
and we're going to increasetank uh and or military Hardware
and send it to ukraine and sendit over to israel, um, there's
(21:34):
a couple things that we need.
We got steel that's gone up andit's you know, you could look
at prices of us steel, which hasbeen going higher.
But what goes in those tanksare our engines and diesel
engine.
We don't use teslas in tanksand military operations, right?
So Cummings is, cmi is a stockticker it's down a little bit
today, but they do make thediesel engines for military and
(21:57):
tanks.
So that's number one.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
Number two and, of course, all the construction
Machines.
Yeah, we want to goconstruction.
It's gonna be a global Biggygot.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
Diesel engines, it's Cummings, uh, caterpillar also,
but Cummings, um.
So that's one that I would bewatchful of.
But here's one that's a littleoff the chart kind of thinking
if you have a tank that'smilitary green but you're
sending it to the middle east,you're gonna have to paint it
and you're gonna go desert,desert flood Camouflage.
(22:29):
Right, you're not gonna gogreen Garden variety tank,
you're gonna have to camouflagethat and spray paint.
There's two companies thatactually have military Contracts
, which is really bizarre.
People don't realize it.
Small little company calledRust-Oleum a lot of people use
their spray paint.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
No, everyone should know Rust-Oleum.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
But the parent company is our PM, industries,
our PM.
I'll double check the shareprice today.
Now, this might not besomething that you get today,
because when you build a tank,you got to build the tank right
and then the next thing you gotto do is get the tank out there
(23:08):
and then, finally, you wouldpaint the tank.
Rpms around 94.
Still, it had a big update,unfortunately, today.
I thought I could give you acheap price for your listeners
today.
The other one is sure whenWilliams?
Shw is the stock symbol there.
Now, what's interesting aboutsure when Williams?
Not only do they have militarycontracts, they have government
contracts.
Now I don't want to soundDeceitious, but let's say, for
(23:31):
example, they have a governmentcontract and someone, let's say,
in Congress on Capital Hill,gets evicted out of their office
like a Nancy Pelosi and the newguy that comes in to take her
office, they, they want itrepainted.
They're gonna use, actually,sure, when Williams paint so the
White House, congress,government offices and as well
(23:52):
as military.
So sure when Williams, besideshousing, new home construction
Sure, when Williams, stocksymbol SHW there.
And today is the same story.
It's up a little bit off.
It's um, it's.
It was Back in July it was a283 dollars.
It actually is Not far off ofthat level.
(24:14):
We're 245.
So sure, when Williams and Idon't know if it's gonna be a
God send if interest rates areon starting on a decline that we
get the 30 year fix back down.
This might entice people to getout of homes.
You get out of homes or youstay in a home.
You might have to repaint thathome, but either way, paint,
whether it's from residential,military or Government.
(24:39):
Believe it or not, those twocompanies might be worthy of
some upside.
At least there might be someincreased demand in the next
year.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Right, and even when people don't have a lot of money
, the government seems to haveit and doesn't stop spending it
to the deficit spending, and sothey have basically a monopoly
on Government projects there gotto keep.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
That's a.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
That's a recession Proof kind of stock there.
I mean, I've heard that thereare certain stocks you know
there's still gonna be garbageday even if there's a recession,
so you can invest in wastemanagement, for example.
So we were talking before theshow We've got about two minutes
left here About what are somestocks that do well no matter
(25:24):
what happens in the next 90 days, and you were mentioning tech
stocks.
So why did you say that?
Speaker 2 (25:29):
Well, I think, either way, we still use technology
our lifestyle.
No one can live without.
You know, driving in a cartexting.
You know, here in America atleast, it's illegal but everyone
does it.
It's funny.
I've even seen state trooperstexting and in their phone,
while you know, going down I-95here in Florida.
So technology is one thecarriers have always made money.
(25:53):
But they borrowed Verizon and18t borrowed all boatload of
money to build out 5g rates godown.
Those stocks are starting tosee recovery.
18t people will still spendmoney and pay for their phone.
You just said it.
You come up here to Americapeople say get me an iPhone
because people are still gonnause that Communication and they
(26:15):
have to pay that bill beforethey go to McDonald's.
In my humble opinion, peoplewill pay right to upload to.
Speaker 1 (26:22):
Social media.
There's nothing of more of anecessity besides food and water
and housing.
Then your, your, your, your,basically it's your everything
device right.
It's your entertainment, it'syour communication, it's for
work, it's for everything.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
It's changed in.
In our lifetime, or my lifetimeas a kid, I could drive a bike
without a helmet.
Now kids have a cell phone andthey need that cell phone and
they have plans.
So what plan?
It's T-Mobile, it's 18t inVerizon and I think those
companies Maybe they don't go upto the moon and make a three,
four hundred percent return inthe next year.
However, I think it's a safetrade.
(26:57):
They pay a dividend and andit's I think at this point in
time it's a good trade to getback into you.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
And so you're saying that that's.
Two out of the big three hadborrowed a lot of money, so are
you saying there's one?
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Yeah, verizon certainly has a huge debt load
on their 5g built out AT&T.
You know they still hadstructural issues.
But I do believe that if youput a, if you put a gun to my
head as a new investor withlimited cash, at&t has a lower
share price than Verizon, a moreseasoned I, I would probably
(27:35):
prefer Verizon.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
You know, at this point, Okay, yeah, and, and I'm
interested in some thedisruptive Companies in that
space, but they're they're usingthose big threes networks.
So so you can't it's like theinfrastructure.
You can't get around the factthat even if you're investing in
some other company, they'reusing one of the big threes
(28:00):
networks, true, so so thank youfor coming on, john, really
appreciate it.
Where can people go to learnmore about you and your work?
Speaker 2 (28:09):
Well, if they go to, our website was designed for you
know we keep talking about Jperson as and it's a private
fund I run, but they go topersons planet calm.
We created a lot of differentindicators and studies on
various trading platforms,charles Schwab for one.
So, if you go to, you knowthese indicators are built on
(28:33):
tasty works, charles Schwab, wehave.
We have indicators onthinkorswim Trade station and so
basically, a lot of theindicators over the years that
I've developed to help stocktraders and traders in general,
those are on and you can findall of that information on
persons planet calm.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Persons with an S and we're gonna put that in the
description box below.
Thank you, john, for coming on,really appreciate your time.
Speaker 2 (28:59):
Thanks a lot, have a great, have a great week, man.
Thank you, sir, you.
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