Semiconductors - linchpin for growth and conflict

Last week Gordon Moore died.  In 1965 he wrote a paper saying the number of transistors on a chip would double every 2 years (at that time, to 65,000). That was not a new physics law, it was a trend. And it turned out to be a powerful trend – today powerful microprocessors have 114 billion transistors.  By seeing how manufacturing could improve, Moore helped others see that the future could be dominated by microprocessors – or computers.

This podcast looks at how big trends are affecting all businesses.   In chip production we have to be aware of a possible war with China over Taiwan, leading to the $280B the US government has allocated to build microprocessors in the USA.  Worries over a China partnership with Russia creates a very real threat to the US Dollar as the global currency, and in fact global dollar transactions have fallen from 85% of trade to only 60% of trade since 2010.  Because of these global worries Congress interrogated the CEO of Tik Tok, an entertainment app, and is likely to ban the app in the USA.  If Congress bans Tik Tok, what hardware or software will next be banned? What trade war will this spark?  How will it impact your business?

The big demographic trend has led Russia to kidnap over 16,000 Ukrainian children in an effort to bolster its population.  With the ICC issuing a warrant for Putin and his #2 for these kidnappings as war crimes, similar to the Nazis kidnapping Polish and other children in WWII.  

Thinking points:

• Are you looking at these big trends and evaluating how they will impact your future scenarios?
• Do you have a 5 and 10 year scenario plan?
• Do you keep your scenario plan updated as world events roll forward?
• Do you recognize your dependencies on products and services from outside the USA which could be impacted by global events?
• Are you overcoming your bias to the future looking like the past by challenging yourself to recognize and address your biases?