August 19, 2023 • 23 mins
The Phillies are fine! I REPEAT, THE PHILLIES ARE FINE!
Phillies Insider Luke Arcaini joins Mark Henry Jr. to talk about the #Phillies still holding the first Wild Card spot despite some recent losses, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Michael Lorenzen, Johan Rojas, and much, much more!
Again, the Phillies are fine.
Phillies Insider Luke Arcaini joins Mark Henry Jr. to talk about the #Phillies still holding the first Wild Card spot despite some recent losses, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Michael Lorenzen, Johan Rojas, and much, much more!
Again, the Phillies are fine.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:05):
Welcome back to the topcom radio showright here on the Gambler, talking Phills.
Coming up right here with Luke Rcineyin a couple of minutes. I
wanted to go through just kind ofa little rundown on what happened last night
in the MLB in terms of relevantto the Philadelphia Phillies and the wild card
race. You obviously had the Philslose one to the Nationals in terms of
(00:31):
really disappointing loss. Obviously six toone lead, you blow that. It's
an opportunity to really take more ofa strangle hold in the wild card.
But numbers still look pretty good interms of them making the playoffs and even
in terms of them securing a homeseries in the wild card round. They
obviously lost us like the Marlins didwin. They are now two and a
(00:54):
half games behind the Phillies and sittingin the third wild card spot as of
right now, you look at theNL Central, the Reds are kind of
coming back a little bit. Theybrought up a big time prospect today in
newelve Marte today as well, sixtyfour and fifty nine. They're also two
and a half back of the Fills. They're sitting in second place of the
Central two games back of the Brewers, the Brewers who are playing better baseball
(01:19):
as of late. And then youhave the Chicago Cubs in third place in
that division at sixty two and fiftynine. The models all love the Cubs,
I mean, the model, likeall the advanced models, all the
odds still think the Cubs are gonnawin that division. They're still three games
out. They still think the Cubshave a really good chance to get a
wild card even if they don't windivision. And they're I mean, how
many games behind us at this point, they are four games behind us right
(01:42):
now. They're from the watch theCubs. They have a lot of guys,
like, yeah, they don't haveany superstars. They don't have any
aces, they don't have any studs, I guess honestly, Justin Steele's pitching
like an ace this year, andMarcus Strumman was earlier this year. But
they just have like a one throughnine good lineup, a bunch of guys
who hit for a good amount ofpower. No one who's hitting fifty omers,
but like a bunch of guys whohit for some power, a bunch
of guys who run, a bunchof guys who field well. The Cubs
(02:04):
are good. I think the Cubsare probably the best team in that division.
It's just that they built themselves alittle bit of a hole earlier in
the year. They've been playing betteror at least at the same level of
baseball that the Brewers and Reds havefor a while. But yeah, I
mean, the playoff odds are stilllooking pretty good for them to make a
run. Giants have really taken adeep dive. They are three and nine
in their last twelve games, sixtyfour and fifty eight. Now they are
(02:29):
still two games behind us. Theyare still the second wild card. I'm
sitting there in the NL right now. The Phillies are first, Giants second,
two behind us, Marlins and Redsare tied in third, two and
a half behind us. The Cubsare four behind us, the Diamondbacks are
five behind us, and then thePadres are eight behind us. The Mets
(02:50):
are nine and a half behind us. I mean, we don't have to
really talk about them. So yeah, I just think that there's no real
reason to panic. There's there's appsno reason to think that the Phillies aren't
going to be fine, and tothink that the Phillies aren't going to make
the playoffs, but you can befrustrated with the loss. I totally understand
that. Yeah, and I'm excitedLuke Arcade he's about to be calling in
(03:10):
and talking with us. But hehad a tweet saying that this was the
worst loss of the season for thePhillies last night, which I was a
little surprised to come out of hisTwitter fingers there. So I'm curious to
get his thoughts on And here heis calling in now, so let me
bring Luke in here. Yeah,No, we're gonna talk to him about
that. I'm trying to search myTwitter right now because I've tweeted this is
the worst loss of the season acouple of times. I didn't think worst
(03:32):
loss of the season last night.Maybe maybe I'm being forgiving for Michael Lorenzi
because he had the no hitter,But I feel like, you know,
I was willing to have a kindof a clunker of a start for him
after two bad starts. As I'msitting here searching my searching my twitter,
what is what did I have?Is the worst loss? There was one?
Oh? I had to trade TurnerKnight where Yeah, obviously I think
(03:54):
yeah, where we turned around andobviously had the the stand. Oh and
because of the interview we gave afterthat game, that was definitely my the
I felt like that one was alittle worse than this one. But Luke
r Kaney, we have him onthe line. Here are insider for the
Phillies here at the Gambler. Youcould follow him at Arkney Luke on Twitter.
(04:16):
Luke, how you doing good?Guys? How are you? We're
hanging in there. We're you know, we're doing all right, you know,
Phillies. Twitter is another story,but but we're we're doing just fine
here. And I think that thatwe're it's nice when it's nice when we
bring you on, because it's alwayskind of we're both telling everyone like relax,
calm down, take it easy.And I think that's where we're at
(04:40):
right now. But I guess we'llstart right there. Since we were talking
about it, because we talked aboutit off air, you tweeted out that
you think it's the worst loss ofthe season, I would say the Trade
Turner loss where he had the errorin the tenth inning. I think there
was another another Marlin's loss this year, but it was pretty rough as well.
But you thought it was the firstloss of the season. Yeah,
(05:01):
I maybe not take the top ofthe throne, but I think it was
definitely up there, especially when youget an offensive breakout like you did in
Toronto at night too, and thebats look really good in the first few
innings with the big inning and thefourth and then obviously I think everyone kind
of knew Lorenzo was due for ablow up, but I wish it wasn't
(05:23):
in the situation where they had afive run lead. So definitely just a
loss that hurt because I think thisis really a weekend for them to really
get a lead in this wild Cardwith the Giants going up against the Braves
and then we have a big seriesstarting on Monday against the Giants. So
(05:43):
definitely not the way that I wantedthe Phillies to kick off the weekend.
But I mean it happens. Iguess not not great, but yeah,
yeah, obviously not great. Isaw, you know, I have a
couple of group chats with some peoplefrom what used to be the Painted Lines
now age of Philly sports, andthe one group chat, and it was
blowing up. I wasn't in itlast night, but I was checking it
(06:05):
this morning and they were all,you know, everyone is saying Michael Lorenzen
turned into a pumpkin, and nowlike, oh, can we rely on
him at all? And it's like, I mean, he had a three
two r A going into that game, he was an all star. He
is underlying numbers suggest that it's notfake even so, like he has performed
to that level all year long.Obviously, two great starts for the Phillies.
(06:26):
I don't think I'm not willing tosay, oh, this guy stinks
and he's not what we thought hewas at all after the third start,
but I'm willing to say, oh, yeah, he's not an ace.
Obviously. I think he's like anumber three number, maybe number two if
he's going right. But I stillfeel good about Lorenzen long term. And
you know, it's a frustrating laws, a frustrating start, but I still
feel good about that trade. Wouldyou agree with me there on Lorenzen?
(06:49):
Yeah, no, I mean he'she was never gonna be a number two
starter for you in the playoffs.Obviously, he had a great start with
us, and he was having agood season in Detroit. But the Phillies
have guys that would definitely be onthe hill before him come playoff time.
I think his stuff, his stuffdid look pretty good early in the game.
(07:09):
I just think the Nationals were kindof definitely playing last night with a
little bit of anger in them,probably from the last time that they faced
them. I think once they startedgetting to them, I think it was
pretty obvious. I also don't thinkthe error helped by by Rojas that that
definitely sparked that inning, which endedup at the time didn't feel like a
(07:30):
huge deal, but then when youlook back on it, definitely you could
say partially lost them the game forsharp. Yeah, It's definitely one of
those things that you can look backon as a sliding doors moment for sure.
But yeah, I think that Let'smove on to today. Let's talk
about today. Let's put talk toput yesterday in the past, and I
(07:53):
didn't I don't have the fields onmy gambling card today. I will say
I'm a little bit nervous about ChristopherSanchez just in terms of I'm a little
bit nervous about the regression that couldbe coming. And he didn't have his
best start against the Nationals recently,and if you look at the BVP numbers,
the Nationals have really hit him welland his time up in the big
leagues, and we have no experienceagainst Irvin. I do think the Philly
(08:16):
should win. They are favorite,sitting at around minus one sixty around even
in terms of the run line.But I wouldn't bet the run line.
I wouldn't bet the money line.If I was going to make a bet
in this game, it would beon Philly's team total over five and a
half. I think the offense haskind of caught fire here a little bit,
and I feel like a lot ofthe bats in the lineup I'm feeling
a lot better about than I wasearlier on in the season, and even
(08:39):
a week or two ago. Imean, Bryson Schober obviously seemed to have
found a little bit of their power. So I feel pretty good about the
offense right now. I think it'sgonna be a high scoring game tonight,
potentially. Do you have any whatdo you think about the game tonight from
a from a gambling aspect, Ido like the over a lot. I
do like what you said. Ithink it's going to be a pretty powerhouse
game in the night. If ifthere's player props you that you would want
(09:03):
to look for. I would probablylook towards Lane Thomas uh. He absolutely
crushes lefties this year. Yeah,and I would still continue to look at
Harper and Schwarber. I think onceSchwarber starts to really get going, I
think he's always a guy that hejust kind of needs to watch one go
in, uh and then and thenwhen it happened, he kind of goes
on a tear after that. SoI would look for Sharbron. I would
(09:26):
also look for Harper as well.He's been really left in the ball over
the last few weeks. Maybe evenlooking at a Harper home run versus old
team today. But I definitely dolike the over today is to play.
Yeah, it is funny how manyold team guys we could say that about
the national Schwarber, Harper, Trey, everybody. That's fun. But yeah,
(09:46):
Bryce's plus three thirty Schober plus twoseventy to homer. But I found
the prop that I liked in thisgame actually that I'm gonna be talking about
later on in the show. ButI I saw Schwarber is Shober's plus two
twelve money to home run obviously orplus two seventy to home run. Not
very great odds there but he's plusone forty to RBI. You have a
(10:07):
lot more opportunities there. You geta sac fly at double, potentially even
an RBI single in the right situation. Not that he hits a ton of
those, but I do think there'sthere's not a big enough gap there.
I do like the RBI there atplus one forty. So let's let's take
a look. I want to talka little bit broad picture here in the
in the NL. Obviously in thewild card race, you have the Giants
(10:30):
two behind us, the Marlins andthe Reds obviously three behind us, the
Cubs four behind us, Diamondbacks fivebehind us. Is there any teams out
of that? I think we allfeel like the Phillies is the best team
in that group, and probably thethird best team in the National League.
Is there any team that you'd wantto avoid in a in a postseason and
(10:50):
a three game match up in thewild card round, whether that be on
the road or at home, whetherthat be sanfran Miami, Cincinnati, Chicago,
Arizona, even Milwaukee. There anyof those teams that scare you a
little bit more than the others.So the only team that I'm really looking
at in the Wildcard is the Giants, and only really specifically in San Francisco.
(11:11):
I think it's really big for thePhillies to keep this top spot in
the Wildcard. We know the atmospherethat we get here once we get to
October, and I think the lessgames that the Phillies have to play on
the road the better. And they'vealso never really played great in San Francisco
and just the West Coast in general. They've never been a West Coast team,
(11:33):
and the Giants are definitely, Ithink a threat. I wouldn't say
a big threat, but they're definitelyI would say that the next best team
after the Phillies in this wild Cardhut right now. But they've been significantly
better at home than on the road. So if you can get maybe the
Giants to come into Philly for athree game series, I think that's a
(11:54):
pretty good spot for the Phillies tobe in. But if they do have
to go out to San fran andthey do let up this this one seed
in the wild Card by the endof the season, I would definitely be
a tad worried about that series.Yeah, yeah, the series I don't
want to see. As Milwaukee,I don't want to see Milwaukee. And
it's not even that I think Milwaukee'is that good. It's just in the
three game series five to see Burnsand Woodriff in two of those games,
(12:18):
it's just like that's brutal. AndI mean even Parolta as a number three,
it's so scared about their lineup.Would it would really it would really
be their staff. Yeah, andeven Williams in the ninth inning is is
they have some really good arms outin Milwaukee. Yeah, And I mean
you could make the same case withthe Giants. Two. Logan Webb's been
really good, al COV's been reallygood. So like the Giants do have
(12:39):
starters who have been well, Iguess I'm just more scared of Milwaukee's starters
there. Giants have a better lineupthan the Brewers do, even though both
lineups don't value there, so thatthat that's just a little bit of a
roundup in the NL there. Butsticking with the sticking with the pills,
I wanted to bring up Johann Rojasand obviously he had that that error last
night, so this is probably likean ill time segment and a little time
(13:00):
time to bring this up. Buthe's been unbelievable in the field, and
he's been truly like a difference makerat a you know, at a level
you don't really see in terms offielding in baseball. His war has been
out of this planet in terms ofwhat he's added to this team. Defensively.
Obviously, Brandon Marsh coming back offof rehab assignment, he looked really
good in Le High Valley, soyou imagine he and Alvarado will be up
(13:24):
anytimes. Now, what do youthink is is Jake Cave, who also
has kind of caught fire a littlebit. Is Jake Cave going to continue
to be a guy who gets aton of at bats? Or are we
going to move towards a lineup youthink where we have Rojas and Marsh and
there consistently in centerfield and left field. Yeah, so Marsh and Cashi are
(13:48):
both on their way back. Ibelieve they said Marsh could potentially be back
today, so they the Phillies aregoing to have some makes, some moves
to make by the end of theweekend. The big story definitely is with
Rojas. He can't go anywhere.He's He's been fantastic for the Phillies.
(14:09):
He's hitting around two ninety throughout hisfirst I'd say probably thirty games with the
Phillies. And obviously we know hisoffense can spark for US here and there,
but his defense has just been absolutelyincredible. If you take away what
happened last night, he has eightdefensive run saved since the All Star Break,
which he has eight defensive runs savedin his first however many games in
(14:35):
the league. He didn't start playingwith US until after the All Started break,
so he has just been on anabsolute tear in the outfield. He
covers so much ground. Uh,it feels like he just gets to every
ball. Last night was a bitof a different story. That was truly
just like that wasn't a lack ofskill, that wasn't anything that was truly
just a drop pop up. Imean, it's it's obviously they are professional
(14:58):
baseball players, but it just happenssometimes I think that you just dropped the
ball once in a while. Buthe's been fantastic. If if he qualified
for a certain amount of games,he would be running away with a gold
Glove in his rookie season without everplaying a one game in Triple if and
speaking of gold gloves, There's beensome buzz that I've seen for Bryson Stott,
(15:18):
who grades out really well defensively asa second baseman this year. So
do you think he's been a GoldGlove level fielder Bryson. And do you
think, like, oh, thismeans we should leave Bryson at second base
kind of forever as his permanent position, or do you think it means well,
if he's improved as much a secondbase, maybe he is a short
(15:41):
stop long term and maybe Trey willshift back, or what do you think
kind of the long term spot forBryson will be or And also do you
think he deserves kind of that goldGlove consideration. Yeah, I am fully
on the gold Glove train for BrysonStott. He's been incredible at second base.
I don't see Bryson stock ever movingfrom that position, probably for the
(16:02):
rest of his career. I thinkhe's I mean, he's always been that
at heart. He was That's wherehe always played throughout high school and college,
and then obviously with the tray thing, he was moved over to second,
which I still think is the rightmove. When you get a good
tray over at short I think heoffers you a lot more than Stock over
there on the left side of thefield, but I believe Bryson Stott is
(16:23):
towards the top and defensive run savedwhen it comes to that second based position,
and it just feels like it's almostlike a Rojas thing. It feels
like he just gets to every groundball, whether he's diving for it or
it seems like he's just so quickover in that spot. So he's he's
really been so comfortable there this yearand I don't believe there's a single reason
(16:45):
for him to ever move from there. And then I guess Kyle Schwarber is
a funny conversation, and there's beena lot of talk the last couple of
weeks about we go from Rohas andStpp to Kyle Schors. Yeah, it's
just shere, we're gonna go.Gloveber would get the I don't even know
what's the award for the least defensiverush. Yeah. Yeah, he is
(17:10):
brutal and left field is it isabsolutely brutal. But in terms of the
bat it's always a fun conversation becauseyou have have the people who think he
sucks and just look at the battingaverage and absolutely can't stand him. But
then you take a look at thepower, and you take a look at
the walks, and you take alook at everything like that, and it's
(17:32):
hard to deny what his impact ison the team. I mean, in
the last thirty days he has,he's he's batting one fifty in that thirty
days, he has a three eightyo BP, and he has thirty walks
in that thirty days. The nexthighest guy on our team in terms of
walks is Bryson Stott at twelve.Kyle Schwober has more than doubled the amount.
(17:55):
If you look at the last sevendays, last fifteen days, less
thirty days, less sixty days,he basically has doubled the amount of walks
as anyone else on our team inthose stretches of time. I don't think
people realize how valuable that is.He's seeing pitches, he's making pictures,
work throughout a game at the leadoffspot, and people just see the strikeouts,
People just see the average. Shouldwe even care about Cole Schwarber's average
(18:19):
or should we just look at thehome run percentage, look at the walk
percentage, look at the OVP andlook at the ops. Yeah, I
mean it's we're getting into a pointin baseball where batting average is kind of
a staff that's going downhill. Ithink it's up. It's misleading to me.
(18:40):
I don't love looking at batting average. Batting average only really tells you
all like the balls and play,and that that's not all of it.
Hitting is and Shorebert, while heis on pace for the most strikeouts of
his career, he's also on pacefor I believe, the second highest on
base percentage of his career or third. Uh. And it's he real estate.
(19:04):
When any when anyone brings up theSchwarber thing in leadoff, it's I.
I really just point them through thePhillies record when he's there, and
it's I get the stats, andI get people want to look at his
batting average and his strikeouts. Butit's pretty obvious that when Schwarbert hits in
the leadoff spot, he's strictly justa winner. And I think he's always
(19:27):
been a streaky guy. But I'venever seen people complain so much about a
guy who averages like forty home runsa year with this team like it.
It really blows my mind. Imean, he's the first Philly since Ryan
Howard to have back to back thirtyhome run seasons, and he's gonna be
the first Philly to have back toback forty homer seasons by time the season's
(19:47):
done. So I really just stoppedlooking at Swarber's batting average. I I
honestly haven't really looked at it.I couldn't even tell you what it's at
right now because I really just don'tcare. It's it's just not a stat
that I need to look after himwhen he's when he's out there working walks
and just crushing home runs. AndI get it, you want a guy
with speed and contacting the lead offspot. But the Phillies are like,
(20:11):
I think they're like sixty five andthirty When Kyle Sobber's in the leadoff spot,
like it just works. And itcomes to a point where everyone just
needs to stop looking at the statsand realize that he needs to be the
guy that spot. No, it'stotally true. And you look at his
walks. I mean, he hada great year last year in terms of
(20:32):
walking at the plate. I meanhe had two eighteen average, but three
twenty three in terms of OVP eighttwenty seven interms of ops and a lot
of that's because of his walks.He had eighty six walks in one hundred
and fifty five games. Well,here we are one hundred and twenty one
games in and he's got ninety walks. Like this guy is walking at an
ungodly Barry Bonds esque pace and peoplejust don't appreciate it. And oh yeah,
(20:55):
he's also on pace for over fortyhome runs, and oh yeah,
he's on pace for the same amountof doubles as he had last year,
and like, it's just he's havingthe same year he had last year,
basically, just a little bit lesssingles and a couple less triples basically,
so people are people are gonna gocrazy about it. If you didn't complain
about him being the leadoff in theWorld Series run last year, you shouldn't
(21:15):
complain now. Is basically what thedelight is. He's averaging three walks every
four games. Like it's it's disgusted, like I don't I don't understand it
too, like and people love to. I feel like there's people out there
that feel like he's like a Chasehitter and and he's he's absolutely the opposite
of that. He works counts,he gets deep and he just walks like
(21:40):
that is one of the biggest thingsthat you could have from a leadoff hitter.
Uh, just getting on base.And it doesn't matter how you get
on base. I don't if hewalked the hunter and fifty times, I
don't care if he's hitting one thirtyexactly. All you need to do in
the leadoff spot is get on base, and that's what he does. Yeah,
I see what he got. Itotally totally agree. And we're gonna
(22:02):
have plenty more time to talk aboutthe Fills and have Luke Arcini on the
show because fields are going into playoffs. Fils are gonna be just fine.
We're making a run. Oh definitely, Well, we'll definitely be talking in
October. I can guarantee that Ican't guarantee anything after the LDS against the
Braves because man, they are good. But I think the Fils might have
(22:23):
some magic eventually. Don't worry.I'm hoping, so wait till the cheating
scandal drops. Yeah. No,I mean, well, the cheating scandal
with the Brais is different than theAstros. It's the fact that they trick
these Latin American players into signing wableand market value contracts. That should be
the the that's the scandal that shouldcome around this time that the Braves are
I mean the Braves offenses a teamare beating every team from the steroid era.
(22:48):
They're being like, something's gotta begoing on. It's insane. There's
no way that reel. There's justno check their feeding metals and something.
He's unreal. Thanks so much forcoming on, Luke. Yes, sorry,
thank you guys. Of course,of course you can follow him on
Twitter at r Kaney Luke. Andwe're gonna go to the other side.
(23:11):
And on the other side we're talkingfootball. We're talking football. We're a
week away from college football where Ithink three weeks away from NFL John Jansen
peaked his head in he'll be hoppingin talking football. So on the other
side, right here on the Gamblertalking on the Tough Cover radio show
Welcome back to the topcom radio showright here on the Gambler, talking Phills.
Coming up right here with Luke Rcineyin a couple of minutes. I
wanted to go through just kind ofa little rundown on what happened last night
in the MLB in terms of relevantto the Philadelphia Phillies and the wild card
race. You obviously had the Philslose one to the Nationals in terms of
(00:31):
really disappointing loss. Obviously six toone lead, you blow that. It's
an opportunity to really take more ofa strangle hold in the wild card.
But numbers still look pretty good interms of them making the playoffs and even
in terms of them securing a homeseries in the wild card round. They
obviously lost us like the Marlins didwin. They are now two and a
(00:54):
half games behind the Phillies and sittingin the third wild card spot as of
right now, you look at theNL Central, the Reds are kind of
coming back a little bit. Theybrought up a big time prospect today in
newelve Marte today as well, sixtyfour and fifty nine. They're also two
and a half back of the Fills. They're sitting in second place of the
Central two games back of the Brewers, the Brewers who are playing better baseball
(01:19):
as of late. And then youhave the Chicago Cubs in third place in
that division at sixty two and fiftynine. The models all love the Cubs,
I mean, the model, likeall the advanced models, all the
odds still think the Cubs are gonnawin that division. They're still three games
out. They still think the Cubshave a really good chance to get a
wild card even if they don't windivision. And they're I mean, how
many games behind us at this point, they are four games behind us right
(01:42):
now. They're from the watch theCubs. They have a lot of guys,
like, yeah, they don't haveany superstars. They don't have any
aces, they don't have any studs, I guess honestly, Justin Steele's pitching
like an ace this year, andMarcus Strumman was earlier this year. But
they just have like a one throughnine good lineup, a bunch of guys
who hit for a good amount ofpower. No one who's hitting fifty omers,
but like a bunch of guys whohit for some power, a bunch
of guys who run, a bunchof guys who field well. The Cubs
(02:04):
are good. I think the Cubsare probably the best team in that division.
It's just that they built themselves alittle bit of a hole earlier in
the year. They've been playing betteror at least at the same level of
baseball that the Brewers and Reds havefor a while. But yeah, I
mean, the playoff odds are stilllooking pretty good for them to make a
run. Giants have really taken adeep dive. They are three and nine
in their last twelve games, sixtyfour and fifty eight. Now they are
(02:29):
still two games behind us. Theyare still the second wild card. I'm
sitting there in the NL right now. The Phillies are first, Giants second,
two behind us, Marlins and Redsare tied in third, two and
a half behind us. The Cubsare four behind us, the Diamondbacks are
five behind us, and then thePadres are eight behind us. The Mets
(02:50):
are nine and a half behind us. I mean, we don't have to
really talk about them. So yeah, I just think that there's no real
reason to panic. There's there's appsno reason to think that the Phillies aren't
going to be fine, and tothink that the Phillies aren't going to make
the playoffs, but you can befrustrated with the loss. I totally understand
that. Yeah, and I'm excitedLuke Arcade he's about to be calling in
(03:10):
and talking with us. But hehad a tweet saying that this was the
worst loss of the season for thePhillies last night, which I was a
little surprised to come out of hisTwitter fingers there. So I'm curious to
get his thoughts on And here heis calling in now, so let me
bring Luke in here. Yeah,No, we're gonna talk to him about
that. I'm trying to search myTwitter right now because I've tweeted this is
the worst loss of the season acouple of times. I didn't think worst
(03:32):
loss of the season last night.Maybe maybe I'm being forgiving for Michael Lorenzi
because he had the no hitter,But I feel like, you know,
I was willing to have a kindof a clunker of a start for him
after two bad starts. As I'msitting here searching my searching my twitter,
what is what did I have?Is the worst loss? There was one?
Oh? I had to trade TurnerKnight where Yeah, obviously I think
(03:54):
yeah, where we turned around andobviously had the the stand. Oh and
because of the interview we gave afterthat game, that was definitely my the
I felt like that one was alittle worse than this one. But Luke
r Kaney, we have him onthe line. Here are insider for the
Phillies here at the Gambler. Youcould follow him at Arkney Luke on Twitter.
(04:16):
Luke, how you doing good?Guys? How are you? We're
hanging in there. We're you know, we're doing all right, you know,
Phillies. Twitter is another story,but but we're we're doing just fine
here. And I think that thatwe're it's nice when it's nice when we
bring you on, because it's alwayskind of we're both telling everyone like relax,
calm down, take it easy.And I think that's where we're at
(04:40):
right now. But I guess we'llstart right there. Since we were talking
about it, because we talked aboutit off air, you tweeted out that
you think it's the worst loss ofthe season, I would say the Trade
Turner loss where he had the errorin the tenth inning. I think there
was another another Marlin's loss this year, but it was pretty rough as well.
But you thought it was the firstloss of the season. Yeah,
(05:01):
I maybe not take the top ofthe throne, but I think it was
definitely up there, especially when youget an offensive breakout like you did in
Toronto at night too, and thebats look really good in the first few
innings with the big inning and thefourth and then obviously I think everyone kind
of knew Lorenzo was due for ablow up, but I wish it wasn't
(05:23):
in the situation where they had afive run lead. So definitely just a
loss that hurt because I think thisis really a weekend for them to really
get a lead in this wild Cardwith the Giants going up against the Braves
and then we have a big seriesstarting on Monday against the Giants. So
(05:43):
definitely not the way that I wantedthe Phillies to kick off the weekend.
But I mean it happens. Iguess not not great, but yeah,
yeah, obviously not great. Isaw, you know, I have a
couple of group chats with some peoplefrom what used to be the Painted Lines
now age of Philly sports, andthe one group chat, and it was
blowing up. I wasn't in itlast night, but I was checking it
(06:05):
this morning and they were all,you know, everyone is saying Michael Lorenzen
turned into a pumpkin, and nowlike, oh, can we rely on
him at all? And it's like, I mean, he had a three
two r A going into that game, he was an all star. He
is underlying numbers suggest that it's notfake even so, like he has performed
to that level all year long.Obviously, two great starts for the Phillies.
(06:26):
I don't think I'm not willing tosay, oh, this guy stinks
and he's not what we thought hewas at all after the third start,
but I'm willing to say, oh, yeah, he's not an ace.
Obviously. I think he's like anumber three number, maybe number two if
he's going right. But I stillfeel good about Lorenzen long term. And
you know, it's a frustrating laws, a frustrating start, but I still
feel good about that trade. Wouldyou agree with me there on Lorenzen?
(06:49):
Yeah, no, I mean he'she was never gonna be a number two
starter for you in the playoffs.Obviously, he had a great start with
us, and he was having agood season in Detroit. But the Phillies
have guys that would definitely be onthe hill before him come playoff time.
I think his stuff, his stuffdid look pretty good early in the game.
(07:09):
I just think the Nationals were kindof definitely playing last night with a
little bit of anger in them,probably from the last time that they faced
them. I think once they startedgetting to them, I think it was
pretty obvious. I also don't thinkthe error helped by by Rojas that that
definitely sparked that inning, which endedup at the time didn't feel like a
(07:30):
huge deal, but then when youlook back on it, definitely you could
say partially lost them the game forsharp. Yeah, It's definitely one of
those things that you can look backon as a sliding doors moment for sure.
But yeah, I think that Let'smove on to today. Let's talk
about today. Let's put talk toput yesterday in the past, and I
(07:53):
didn't I don't have the fields onmy gambling card today. I will say
I'm a little bit nervous about ChristopherSanchez just in terms of I'm a little
bit nervous about the regression that couldbe coming. And he didn't have his
best start against the Nationals recently,and if you look at the BVP numbers,
the Nationals have really hit him welland his time up in the big
leagues, and we have no experienceagainst Irvin. I do think the Philly
(08:16):
should win. They are favorite,sitting at around minus one sixty around even
in terms of the run line.But I wouldn't bet the run line.
I wouldn't bet the money line.If I was going to make a bet
in this game, it would beon Philly's team total over five and a
half. I think the offense haskind of caught fire here a little bit,
and I feel like a lot ofthe bats in the lineup I'm feeling
a lot better about than I wasearlier on in the season, and even
(08:39):
a week or two ago. Imean, Bryson Schober obviously seemed to have
found a little bit of their power. So I feel pretty good about the
offense right now. I think it'sgonna be a high scoring game tonight,
potentially. Do you have any whatdo you think about the game tonight from
a from a gambling aspect, Ido like the over a lot. I
do like what you said. Ithink it's going to be a pretty powerhouse
game in the night. If ifthere's player props you that you would want
(09:03):
to look for. I would probablylook towards Lane Thomas uh. He absolutely
crushes lefties this year. Yeah,and I would still continue to look at
Harper and Schwarber. I think onceSchwarber starts to really get going, I
think he's always a guy that hejust kind of needs to watch one go
in, uh and then and thenwhen it happened, he kind of goes
on a tear after that. SoI would look for Sharbron. I would
(09:26):
also look for Harper as well.He's been really left in the ball over
the last few weeks. Maybe evenlooking at a Harper home run versus old
team today. But I definitely dolike the over today is to play.
Yeah, it is funny how manyold team guys we could say that about
the national Schwarber, Harper, Trey, everybody. That's fun. But yeah,
(09:46):
Bryce's plus three thirty Schober plus twoseventy to homer. But I found
the prop that I liked in thisgame actually that I'm gonna be talking about
later on in the show. ButI I saw Schwarber is Shober's plus two
twelve money to home run obviously orplus two seventy to home run. Not
very great odds there but he's plusone forty to RBI. You have a
(10:07):
lot more opportunities there. You geta sac fly at double, potentially even
an RBI single in the right situation. Not that he hits a ton of
those, but I do think there'sthere's not a big enough gap there.
I do like the RBI there atplus one forty. So let's let's take
a look. I want to talka little bit broad picture here in the
in the NL. Obviously in thewild card race, you have the Giants
(10:30):
two behind us, the Marlins andthe Reds obviously three behind us, the
Cubs four behind us, Diamondbacks fivebehind us. Is there any teams out
of that? I think we allfeel like the Phillies is the best team
in that group, and probably thethird best team in the National League.
Is there any team that you'd wantto avoid in a in a postseason and
(10:50):
a three game match up in thewild card round, whether that be on
the road or at home, whetherthat be sanfran Miami, Cincinnati, Chicago,
Arizona, even Milwaukee. There anyof those teams that scare you a
little bit more than the others.So the only team that I'm really looking
at in the Wildcard is the Giants, and only really specifically in San Francisco.
(11:11):
I think it's really big for thePhillies to keep this top spot in
the Wildcard. We know the atmospherethat we get here once we get to
October, and I think the lessgames that the Phillies have to play on
the road the better. And they'vealso never really played great in San Francisco
and just the West Coast in general. They've never been a West Coast team,
(11:33):
and the Giants are definitely, Ithink a threat. I wouldn't say
a big threat, but they're definitelyI would say that the next best team
after the Phillies in this wild Cardhut right now. But they've been significantly
better at home than on the road. So if you can get maybe the
Giants to come into Philly for athree game series, I think that's a
(11:54):
pretty good spot for the Phillies tobe in. But if they do have
to go out to San fran andthey do let up this this one seed
in the wild Card by the endof the season, I would definitely be
a tad worried about that series.Yeah, yeah, the series I don't
want to see. As Milwaukee,I don't want to see Milwaukee. And
it's not even that I think Milwaukee'is that good. It's just in the
three game series five to see Burnsand Woodriff in two of those games,
(12:18):
it's just like that's brutal. AndI mean even Parolta as a number three,
it's so scared about their lineup.Would it would really it would really
be their staff. Yeah, andeven Williams in the ninth inning is is
they have some really good arms outin Milwaukee. Yeah, And I mean
you could make the same case withthe Giants. Two. Logan Webb's been
really good, al COV's been reallygood. So like the Giants do have
(12:39):
starters who have been well, Iguess I'm just more scared of Milwaukee's starters
there. Giants have a better lineupthan the Brewers do, even though both
lineups don't value there, so thatthat that's just a little bit of a
roundup in the NL there. Butsticking with the sticking with the pills,
I wanted to bring up Johann Rojasand obviously he had that that error last
night, so this is probably likean ill time segment and a little time
(13:00):
time to bring this up. Buthe's been unbelievable in the field, and
he's been truly like a difference makerat a you know, at a level
you don't really see in terms offielding in baseball. His war has been
out of this planet in terms ofwhat he's added to this team. Defensively.
Obviously, Brandon Marsh coming back offof rehab assignment, he looked really
good in Le High Valley, soyou imagine he and Alvarado will be up
(13:24):
anytimes. Now, what do youthink is is Jake Cave, who also
has kind of caught fire a littlebit. Is Jake Cave going to continue
to be a guy who gets aton of at bats? Or are we
going to move towards a lineup youthink where we have Rojas and Marsh and
there consistently in centerfield and left field. Yeah, so Marsh and Cashi are
(13:48):
both on their way back. Ibelieve they said Marsh could potentially be back
today, so they the Phillies aregoing to have some makes, some moves
to make by the end of theweekend. The big story definitely is with
Rojas. He can't go anywhere.He's He's been fantastic for the Phillies.
(14:09):
He's hitting around two ninety throughout hisfirst I'd say probably thirty games with the
Phillies. And obviously we know hisoffense can spark for US here and there,
but his defense has just been absolutelyincredible. If you take away what
happened last night, he has eightdefensive run saved since the All Star Break,
which he has eight defensive runs savedin his first however many games in
(14:35):
the league. He didn't start playingwith US until after the All Started break,
so he has just been on anabsolute tear in the outfield. He
covers so much ground. Uh,it feels like he just gets to every
ball. Last night was a bitof a different story. That was truly
just like that wasn't a lack ofskill, that wasn't anything that was truly
just a drop pop up. Imean, it's it's obviously they are professional
(14:58):
baseball players, but it just happenssometimes I think that you just dropped the
ball once in a while. Buthe's been fantastic. If if he qualified
for a certain amount of games,he would be running away with a gold
Glove in his rookie season without everplaying a one game in Triple if and
speaking of gold gloves, There's beensome buzz that I've seen for Bryson Stott,
(15:18):
who grades out really well defensively asa second baseman this year. So
do you think he's been a GoldGlove level fielder Bryson. And do you
think, like, oh, thismeans we should leave Bryson at second base
kind of forever as his permanent position, or do you think it means well,
if he's improved as much a secondbase, maybe he is a short
(15:41):
stop long term and maybe Trey willshift back, or what do you think
kind of the long term spot forBryson will be or And also do you
think he deserves kind of that goldGlove consideration. Yeah, I am fully
on the gold Glove train for BrysonStott. He's been incredible at second base.
I don't see Bryson stock ever movingfrom that position, probably for the
(16:02):
rest of his career. I thinkhe's I mean, he's always been that
at heart. He was That's wherehe always played throughout high school and college,
and then obviously with the tray thing, he was moved over to second,
which I still think is the rightmove. When you get a good
tray over at short I think heoffers you a lot more than Stock over
there on the left side of thefield, but I believe Bryson Stott is
(16:23):
towards the top and defensive run savedwhen it comes to that second based position,
and it just feels like it's almostlike a Rojas thing. It feels
like he just gets to every groundball, whether he's diving for it or
it seems like he's just so quickover in that spot. So he's he's
really been so comfortable there this yearand I don't believe there's a single reason
(16:45):
for him to ever move from there. And then I guess Kyle Schwarber is
a funny conversation, and there's beena lot of talk the last couple of
weeks about we go from Rohas andStpp to Kyle Schors. Yeah, it's
just shere, we're gonna go.Gloveber would get the I don't even know
what's the award for the least defensiverush. Yeah. Yeah, he is
(17:10):
brutal and left field is it isabsolutely brutal. But in terms of the
bat it's always a fun conversation becauseyou have have the people who think he
sucks and just look at the battingaverage and absolutely can't stand him. But
then you take a look at thepower, and you take a look at
the walks, and you take alook at everything like that, and it's
(17:32):
hard to deny what his impact ison the team. I mean, in
the last thirty days he has,he's he's batting one fifty in that thirty
days, he has a three eightyo BP, and he has thirty walks
in that thirty days. The nexthighest guy on our team in terms of
walks is Bryson Stott at twelve.Kyle Schwober has more than doubled the amount.
(17:55):
If you look at the last sevendays, last fifteen days, less
thirty days, less sixty days,he basically has doubled the amount of walks
as anyone else on our team inthose stretches of time. I don't think
people realize how valuable that is.He's seeing pitches, he's making pictures,
work throughout a game at the leadoffspot, and people just see the strikeouts,
People just see the average. Shouldwe even care about Cole Schwarber's average
(18:19):
or should we just look at thehome run percentage, look at the walk
percentage, look at the OVP andlook at the ops. Yeah, I
mean it's we're getting into a pointin baseball where batting average is kind of
a staff that's going downhill. Ithink it's up. It's misleading to me.
(18:40):
I don't love looking at batting average. Batting average only really tells you
all like the balls and play,and that that's not all of it.
Hitting is and Shorebert, while heis on pace for the most strikeouts of
his career, he's also on pacefor I believe, the second highest on
base percentage of his career or third. Uh. And it's he real estate.
(19:04):
When any when anyone brings up theSchwarber thing in leadoff, it's I.
I really just point them through thePhillies record when he's there, and
it's I get the stats, andI get people want to look at his
batting average and his strikeouts. Butit's pretty obvious that when Schwarbert hits in
the leadoff spot, he's strictly justa winner. And I think he's always
(19:27):
been a streaky guy. But I'venever seen people complain so much about a
guy who averages like forty home runsa year with this team like it.
It really blows my mind. Imean, he's the first Philly since Ryan
Howard to have back to back thirtyhome run seasons, and he's gonna be
the first Philly to have back toback forty homer seasons by time the season's
(19:47):
done. So I really just stoppedlooking at Swarber's batting average. I I
honestly haven't really looked at it.I couldn't even tell you what it's at
right now because I really just don'tcare. It's it's just not a stat
that I need to look after himwhen he's when he's out there working walks
and just crushing home runs. AndI get it, you want a guy
with speed and contacting the lead offspot. But the Phillies are like,
(20:11):
I think they're like sixty five andthirty When Kyle Sobber's in the leadoff spot,
like it just works. And itcomes to a point where everyone just
needs to stop looking at the statsand realize that he needs to be the
guy that spot. No, it'stotally true. And you look at his
walks. I mean, he hada great year last year in terms of
(20:32):
walking at the plate. I meanhe had two eighteen average, but three
twenty three in terms of OVP eighttwenty seven interms of ops and a lot
of that's because of his walks.He had eighty six walks in one hundred
and fifty five games. Well,here we are one hundred and twenty one
games in and he's got ninety walks. Like this guy is walking at an
ungodly Barry Bonds esque pace and peoplejust don't appreciate it. And oh yeah,
(20:55):
he's also on pace for over fortyhome runs, and oh yeah,
he's on pace for the same amountof doubles as he had last year,
and like, it's just he's havingthe same year he had last year,
basically, just a little bit lesssingles and a couple less triples basically,
so people are people are gonna gocrazy about it. If you didn't complain
about him being the leadoff in theWorld Series run last year, you shouldn't
(21:15):
complain now. Is basically what thedelight is. He's averaging three walks every
four games. Like it's it's disgusted, like I don't I don't understand it
too, like and people love to. I feel like there's people out there
that feel like he's like a Chasehitter and and he's he's absolutely the opposite
of that. He works counts,he gets deep and he just walks like
(21:40):
that is one of the biggest thingsthat you could have from a leadoff hitter.
Uh, just getting on base.And it doesn't matter how you get
on base. I don't if hewalked the hunter and fifty times, I
don't care if he's hitting one thirtyexactly. All you need to do in
the leadoff spot is get on base, and that's what he does. Yeah,
I see what he got. Itotally totally agree. And we're gonna
(22:02):
have plenty more time to talk aboutthe Fills and have Luke Arcini on the
show because fields are going into playoffs. Fils are gonna be just fine.
We're making a run. Oh definitely, Well, we'll definitely be talking in
October. I can guarantee that Ican't guarantee anything after the LDS against the
Braves because man, they are good. But I think the Fils might have
(22:23):
some magic eventually. Don't worry.I'm hoping, so wait till the cheating
scandal drops. Yeah. No,I mean, well, the cheating scandal
with the Brais is different than theAstros. It's the fact that they trick
these Latin American players into signing wableand market value contracts. That should be
the the that's the scandal that shouldcome around this time that the Braves are
I mean the Braves offenses a teamare beating every team from the steroid era.
(22:48):
They're being like, something's gotta begoing on. It's insane. There's
no way that reel. There's justno check their feeding metals and something.
He's unreal. Thanks so much forcoming on, Luke. Yes, sorry,
thank you guys. Of course,of course you can follow him on
Twitter at r Kaney Luke. Andwe're gonna go to the other side.
(23:11):
And on the other side we're talkingfootball. We're talking football. We're a
week away from college football where Ithink three weeks away from NFL John Jansen
peaked his head in he'll be hoppingin talking football. So on the other
side, right here on the Gamblertalking on the Tough Cover radio show
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