Has Inflation Decreased Enough To Prevent Further Rate Hikes?

It’s becoming more and more clear that the Bank of Canada is nearing the top of its current rate hike cycle as the latest inflation print showed real signs of slowing, down 0.5% to 6.3%, a welcome reprieve considering the last 9 months. However that likely won’t change the outcome of next week’s rate hike which will almost certainly come in at 0.25% -  a number largely baked into today’s economy. 

We also take a look at some of the major headlines reported this week in real estate, including comments from the Deputy Head Economist of CMHC who feels "We've seen quite a large price decline but there's such a shortage of new construction of new houses in Canada that this inexorable rise in demand is just going to continue in the future," Iorwerth said. - "Don't know exactly when it's going to kick in again, but the shortage in supply means the prices can't go down too much further."

Even the Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted prices will fall another 6% from their peak in 2022 and level out throughout 2023. They were even so bold as to predicted sales volume will increase by 10.2% in 2024; however if the last two years has taught us anything, it’s that predicting two years into the future with any degree of accuracy is a very difficult thing to do, especially considering the geo-political environment the world finds itself in. Any abrupt changes to our supply chains, to energy, fuel, and labour supply could pose a serious threat to the rebound from which our economy recovers from.

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