Ep. #28 Is Jett Lawrence the Greatest Rookie Ever?

NOTE: The statistics in this show are relevant after the 2024 Indianapolis Supercross but before the 2024 Seattle Supercross. Check in at wewentfast.com for updated info.

It’s time to talk about this: we haven’t even reached the two-thirds point of the 2024 Monster Energy Supercross Championship and Jett Lawrence isn’t just in prime position to win the title; he’s in the hunt for the greatest rookie season of all-time.

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Episode Transcript

Brett Smith (00:03):
Welcome to We Went Fast. Thank you for listening.
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(00:26):
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Is Jett Lawrence the greatestrookie ever? It's time to talk

(00:49):
about this. We haven't evenreached the 2 thirds point of
the 2024 Monster EnergySupercross championship, and
Jett Lawrence isn't just inprime position to win the title.
He's in the hunt for thegreatest rookie season of all
time. Treason, you cry. Off withhis head, they chant. Those who

(01:12):
speak against Jeremy McGrath,the king of Supercross and the
reigning greatest Supercrossrookie of all time, do so at
their own peril. But this isn't10th century England, and anyone
who has halfway paid attentioncan see what Lawrence has
already done in 10 rounds andwho he's doing it against.

(01:35):
Let's flash back 31 years to1993. Here's what McGrath faced
at round 1 in Orlando. The fieldincluded just one former
champion, Jeff Stanton, and 4riders who had previously won a
Supercross. Total 4 50 s x racewin count, 37. Here's what lined

(01:57):
up at round 1 on January 6,2024.
Four former champions, 6 titlescombined, and 7 riders who had
previously hoisted a 4 50Supercross winners trophy over
their heads. Total career wincount, 122. For the fact

(02:20):
checkers, don't forgetMinneapolis 2008 winner, Josh
Hill. Hey. He made the nightshow.
With Lawrence getting his firstwin in his first try and Aaron
Plessinger winning his first 450 s x at round 3, we're up to 9
winners racing in 2024. Lookingat a chart that you can see at

(02:43):
wewentfast.com in the printversion of this story, we have
the most 4 50 rookie winners.Jeremy McGrath is at the top
with 10 wins. Chad Reed has 8,Ryan Dungey, 6, Damon Bradshaw,
5, and Jett Lawrence is tied for4th place in this category with
5 wins also. James Stewart, 3wins.

(03:05):
Trey Kennard, 3 wins also. Gosee these charts. There are
plenty of charts in this articleat wewentfast.com. Jett
Lawrence, gotta pinch yourself.After the wire to wire win in
Birmingham, Lawrence was askedif he had processed what he was
doing against this lineup ofchampions and winners.

(03:27):
In response, he shared memoriesof being a young teenager in
Europe, watching Eli Tomac, KenRoczen, and Cooper Webb racing
in America. When he came to theUnited States in 2019, he had
opportunities to be a juniortraining partner with a few of
those riders he now competesagainst. Those impressions stuck

(03:48):
with him. Now that I'm racingthese guys, it's kinda like, I
kinda forget who I am sometimes,said Lawrence, now 20 years old.
On the starting line, I'msitting next to Tomac and Kenny
or Cooper, and I'm saying tomyself, yeah, this is sick.
And then I go, oh, I need to doa job. You gotta kinda pinch

(04:09):
yourself. As a 22 year oldrookie, Jeremy McGrath said
something similar to himself.I'm going into the 93 season,
basically racing against myheroes. Then I'm like, these
guys are gods, he said from hishome in California.
They're unbeatable. Lawrence cannow stop pinching himself. In

(04:33):
just 3 weekends, he manhandledDaytona, dominated Birmingham,
and surgically controlled all 3races of the Indianapolis Triple
Crown. He's more than proven hisplace amongst the riders he once
idolized from afar. And now he'son pace to come close to, match,

(04:55):
even snatch the 4 50 Supercrossrookie season wins record.
Set in 1993, over a decadebefore Lawrence was born,
McGrath ended that year with 10wins in 16 races. At the time,
that was also the most races anyrider had ever won in a season,

(05:18):
period. With 5 wins in the first10 rounds and 7 races remaining
in 2024, Lawrence is now tiedwith Damon Bradshaw for 4th most
rookie season wins. One more winties in with Ryan Dungey. The
only rider on this chart belowthat Lawrence isn't already

(05:39):
outpacing for wins is McGrath.
And I'm looking at anotherchart. This is the 4 50 s x
rookie report cards through 10rounds. I'm not gonna read the
whole thing. It's quite lengthy.Go to wewentfast.com to read it.
But here are the categories, andI'll read you where Jett
Lawrence stands in 2024. Averagefinished position, 3.1

(06:02):
consecutive wins were up to 3after his win in Indy. Six
podiums on the season, 10 startsbecause we have 10 rounds. He's
in 1st with 210 points, 8 topfives, 5 wins, and we compare
him to McGrath, Reed, Dungey,Bradshaw, Trey Kennard, and
James Stewart for their rookieseasons. Again, go see that

(06:23):
chart at wewentfast.com whenyou're done listening.
Like McGrath, Lawrence is theonly other rookie to string
together 3 consecutive overallswithin the first 10 rounds.
Inside Lucas Oil's stadium lastweekend, his 3rd consecutive
victory happened in big redstamp fashion. In the indie

(06:46):
press conference, there was nolook at what you're doing
comments or questions. Lawrencetalked about comfort and rhythm
on a track that was anything butcomfortable or rhythmic. While
Roczen, the only other rider whoactually challenged Lawrence in
the Triple Crown answeredsurvival as his one word
response to how he manages atrack like that.

(07:09):
Roczen led the first 6 laps of tc 1 and t c 2 and the first 10
laps of t c 3. But every time heput some distance between he and
Lawrence, Lawrence figured out away to keep Kenny close. With a
21 point lead after 10 rounds,murmurs of it's over circulate

(07:30):
the between roundsconversations. And that isn't
exactly defeatist chatter. It'sreality.
In 50 years of Supercrosshistory, only 2 comebacks
greater than 17 points have everhappened after round 10. The
first was in 1983, which isfully detailed in a story that

(07:52):
you can find at wewentfast.com.And the second happened just
last year when Cooper Webbexited the season in Nashville,
and then Eli Tomac ruptured hisAchilles in Denver. We saw this
coming. Right?
January 6, 2024 seems like aneternity ago when the series and

(08:16):
fans greatly anticipatedwatching a new crop of rookies
go up against a powerful groupof champions and veterans.
Because of Lawrence's uniquepremier class entry, motocross,
supermotocross, then supercross,and then the way he dominated
pro motocross to the point ofperfection and then won the

(08:37):
inaugural Supermotocrosschampionship, winning right away
in Supercross was almostexpected. And if it wasn't
expected, it certainly wasn't asurprise when he did. This
wasn't so when Jeremy McGrathlined up in Orlando for the 1993
Supercross opener. In fact, hewas so unsure of his own ability

(09:02):
that he asked Honda torenegotiate his contract to pay
main event bonuses back to 5thplace because he couldn't see
himself getting on the podiumwhen his competition included
his teammate, defending championJeff Stanton, Damon Bradshaw,
who won 9 races the previousyear, Mike LaRocco and Mike

(09:23):
Kudrowski, who both madefrequent podium appearances, and
a handful of other riders thathe didn't see himself beating
often, if ever.
Hindsight is so crystal clear,however, and McGrath cost
himself a lot of money changingthat contract. Preseason 1993,

(09:44):
if you had written a previewthat suggested Damon Bradshaw
would win just 2 races, finishoff the podium more than on, and
end the season in 4th, and thatJeff Stanton would only get a
garbage time victory and end theseason in 3rd, and that a rookie
would set a new single seasonwin record, you would have been

(10:06):
accused of drinking too muchpremix. I was feeling apologetic
for beating Stanton, even forpassing him, McGrath said. But
from there, the confidence tookover. I was like, oh, I can do
that every week?
That's not that hard. And asthey say, the rest is history.

(10:28):
Here are 2 more rookies thatJett Lawrence is still chasing,
Chad Reed and Ryan Dungey. In2003, Chad Reed put in the
greatest rookie performance tonot win a title. He scored 360
points in a 16 race season, wonmore races than the champion,

(10:49):
Ricky Carmichael, and landed onthe podium 14 times.
His worst finish, 6th placetwice. On one hand, you could
argue that the field was weak.Just 3 riders qualified for all
16 main events. Or you couldlook at it this way, that
Carmichael and Reed were justthat good. In 2010, rookie Ryan

(11:15):
Dungey faced a brutal lineup.
He went up against 7 riders whohad won a race, including
defending champion JamesStewart, who won round 1, Dungey
was 2nd, and former 2 timechampion Reid, who finished 19th
at Anaheim 1. But by round 7,both of those riders were gone
from the series. And at round 14of 17, Dungey's last remaining

(11:39):
serious challenger, RyanVillapoto, was severely injured.
Like McGrath 17 years earlier,Dungey wrapped up the title 2
rounds early. Given Lawrence'sperformance so far on a 4 50,
he's on pace for a similar earlytitle chase conclusion.

(12:00):
Since May 2023, when he movedfull time to the 4 50 class,
he's won 18 of 24 overalls.That's 75%. And if we're
counting straight gate drops,motocross motors, SMX Moto main
events, and individual TripleCrown races, Lawrence has won 32

(12:23):
of 42, and he deliberately gaveone of those SMX Motors away in
a math problem gone sideways.And another chart called
tracking Jett Lawrence's 4 50career, I've already gone over
much of what is in this chart,but one thing that sticks out is
his 19 podiums in the 24 starts,which means 18 of his podiums

(12:47):
are wins. Only one of his career4 50 podiums is not a win.
Winning is never guaranteed, andyou never know when or if that
next one is coming. Eli Tomacknows that all too well right
about now, and 2024 is startingto feel very familiar. The

(13:09):
defending champion has one racewin and sits 3rd in points. The
guy who should have won thetitle the previous year, Tomac,
still has no wins, has been offthe podium more than on, and
sits forth in the standings.Feels like 1993 all over again.
Is history repeating itself? Weclose this article out with a

(13:36):
Jett Lawrence milestone tracker.With 7 rounds remaining, here
are rookie milestones that Jettcan challenge. Wins. He needs 6
wins in the remaining 7 races tobeat Jeremy McGrath's 1993
rookie season win record, whichstands at 10.
He needs 5 wins to tie the king.Podiums, these are already out

(13:58):
of reach. Chad Reed earned 14podiums in 2003. At this point,
Lawrence can reach 13 if hefinishes top 3 all the way
through Salt Lake City.Championships, McGrath, 1993,
and Dungey, 2010, are the onlyrookies to win the Supercross
championship.

(14:19):
Points. Jett needs to average 22points per race to beat Ryan
Dungey's rookie record of 363points. And Dungey had 17 rounds
just like Lawrence has today. Todo that specifically, obviously,
if you know the point system, hecould finish second at each of
the remaining 7 rounds. Singleseason.

(14:43):
If Lawrence, gasp, wins out,he'd rank 4th on the list for
most wins all time in a singleseason. Another chart, Jeremy
McGrath and Ricky Carmichael areat the top of the chart for most
single season wins with 14apiece. James Stewart had 13 and

(15:03):
7. Ricky Carmichael had 11 in2002. Jett Lawrence could get up
to 12 if he wins out.
McGrath, 1993 had 10, 10 in 95,10 in 2000. Ryan Villapoto got
10 in 2013. And then ending thechart is a group that won 9

(15:27):
races in a single season.Bradshaw was the 1st to do it in
92. McGrath did it in 94.
Filipoto did it in 2012. Dungeyin 2016. And Eli Tomac is the
most recent to do it in 2017.Thanks again for listening to
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(15:49):
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