January 24, 2024 • 15 mins
Tune in to the latest Mortgage Mindset episode as we unpack the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. What's in store for interest rates and the real estate market? This episode is a crucial listen for realtors and mortgage professionals, offering expert insights on potential rate changes and their implications. Stay ahead of the curve in the property market with our analysis and actionable advice. Listen now for a clear understanding of how these decisions could affect your business and clients.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
good morning
good afternoon
good evening
wherever you are and whenever you're listening
I want to congratulate you
on taking steps to being the expert in your field
today we are talking about the Fed meeting
that's gonna happen on January 30th and 31st
I've got Chris Brazell
director of operations
what's going on Chris
hey hunter how you doing today
doing good man
doing good so uh
let's jump into it uh
(00:21):
the Fed is meeting next week uh
and uh we are going to
hear what their first announcement of the New Year is
I think every Fed meeting that happens this year
we're gonna have a lot of anticipation in the market
right now now
I don't think we're gonna see anything this time around
I think the bomb
markets currently pricing at 97.4% chance of no change
(00:45):
and a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point drop
so less than 3% of the market is saying you know
we're going to get a little bit of a cut here
not gambling numbers
uh Chris talk about what that kind of does when
when you have such a
high expectation of no change in the bond market
(01:05):
uh right now
what is that due to
rates you know
are we getting a better rates and a lot
we had a lot of extra pricing last year um
in in the rates just because everyone was terrified
what what are we seeing right now
yep so it's
you know and again
thanks for having me on this conversation
it's always exciting talking about the Fed
you know what I mean
(01:25):
come on everybody let's go
but it is interesting though
because it's
the typically Fed meetings
don't get as much publicity as they will this year
so we've been in a continuously up
swinging market for the past couple years
as we all know
interest rates have gone up to their highest
levels in 20
30 years um
and so with that
everybody's kind of excited this year
(01:47):
cause the back in December
they talked about a potential multiple Fed rate cuts um
starting at the beginning of the year
now they've kind of dialed back on that a little bit
with the fact that now they're anticipating
probably this month nothing
um it leave everything kind of unchanged
how that affects rates is
in the past
investors were hedging with the fact that rates
(02:08):
were gonna continuously go up you know
that's why prime interest rate has gone up like 5%
over the past couple years
with that mortgage interest rates have gone up
so that because the investors were hedging
every time they're anticipated a Fed rate hike
now with the fact that we're hoping for
Fed to cut rates this year
um that basically what it's doing right now
(02:29):
it's stagnating the rates a little bit
and what that means is
we're not going up as much as we were
over the past six months
now back in November
we were dang near an 8% interest rate
yes we were
which was painful
as we all was
seeing that 8
scared the bejesus out of everybody
I mean I sevens were scary enough
but seeing an 8 in front of something good Lord
there's a new article on Yahoo
(02:50):
every day back then of
are we gonna see double digit mortgage rates again
that was that
that was terrifying for me
that was horrible man
double digits
I couldn't even imagine
but with that being said
they have come down a little bit
because of the fact we're anticipating
rate cuts this year yeah
so the stagnation is from the initial
(03:10):
I don't wanna call it a knee jerk reaction
cause nothing in this industry moves overnight
but they did have a good reaction
to the anticipation of rate cuts back in December
now with like you said
the 97.4 chance of no change at this meeting
coming up at the end of the month
I think we'll see rates stagnate
meaning we're not gonna see the major fluctuations
like we have over the past few months
(03:31):
yeah hopefully
you know they stay where they are
if not you know
trend a little bit lower
a little bit higher
you know just slight
changes one way or the other
and not where you wake up one day
and it's a quarter to 3/8 higher
yeah well that
that can bring me some peace of mind
as well I mean
it's not as low as we want
but also there's peace of mind
knowing that you know
for the young ELOs out there
that are fighting for every deal
(03:52):
you don't have to be terrified
that you lock your client tomorrow
and then the very next day
the bond drops 100 bases points
and you know
you're losing all those deals
um at the same time
you know agents who are talking to their clients
there's a little bit more um
consistency
as you know
Monday Tuesday
Wednesday goes so long
you can kind of give them the same rough numbers
(04:12):
if your clients are asking what rates are
because there's not as much swing
so that that is
there's piece of mind in that
that's correct
and also those agents that have
clients out there
that have been sitting on the fence
you know now
that they got so scared
that they're like
you know I don't wanna look now
cause when I find a house
my payments gonna be 50
hundred dollars higher
because rates have gone up
let's hope that this stabilization
(04:33):
to a certain
degree you know
barring any unforeseen
circumstances
that we can't predict
but let's hope this stabilization at least
comforts people to the fact
they can go out and start looking for houses
again that's it
that's good
yep yep um so
in December
we had higher income
or higher employment
numbers than
expected yep
and we know
(04:54):
we know that
the seasonal
seasonal employment
market is real
and January
does have the highest month
for layoffs
generally of the year
do you think the Fed
will you use that
or consider that information
the employment numbers
from December
when making their announcements
or do you think they're
(05:14):
they're pretty much
ready to wash 2023 of their hands
yeah I think
you're gonna see a marginal
reaction to that okay
because they do
there you know
even though they do base a lot of information
on unemployment figures
that it being at 3.7%
they predicted a slightly
higher number
it came in a little bit lower than
expectations
but guess what
they also revise
those numbers
too they do
(05:35):
so whenever they
initially come out
it used to be
low on employment
you're gonna see the rate spike
this time you know
it's not as much of
a dramatic change
just because of that
so they know
the seasonality of
December and then
like you said
January you're gonna see the
the layoffs
more people out in the job market
and what's gonna happen then
(05:56):
it won't have as much of a
hit then either
if the unemployment comes in higher
so they kind of wash
each other out
um and with that being said
you know it's kind of good
with the fact that they don't take it into
account as much
you know it's still
as a factor
you know unemployment
generally at a 3.7 number
is low you know
historically
(06:16):
speaking yeah
which is good
which usually drives
rates up um
but you know
there's other factors
involved in that you know
with the fact that
inflation is still
relatively high
compared to where they want it to be
and things like that
so they take it all into account
and so they're gonna wash their hands of it
we're gonna move on to 2024
and start using
I would say
February March
numbers are gonna have a more dramatic
(06:37):
impact than
December and January
yeah I think the Fed
predicted a 4.1%
average for unemployment 2024
so as you know
we see unemployment even just
just a little bit
I think that will help
inflationary numbers
as well yep
I agree with that
yeah and you know
the inflation
as we all know
they're still chasing that
2% inflation figure
(06:58):
which were not there
I don't think we're gonna get there
close to three
right yeah it's
sitting right around 3%
right now which is
it's better than we were
it's not where the Fed wants it
that's right
but you know
it is one of the factors that they still are using
to drive prime
interest rate yeah
so in the past
we really didn't hear much from the Fed
(07:20):
month to month
you know we would hear from
drone pal the
the Fed chair
at the end of the Fed meeting
but really that
that's all we got from the Fed
over the past
maybe even you know
in the last
last quarter of last year
we saw Atlanta Fed chair
Cleveland Fed chair
uh members come out and
(07:40):
and speak often times
opposing information
in the same week
and that would cause
a lot of turmoil
in the market
you would hear one
uh Fed chair
say you know
we're done cutting
uh we're done
increasing rates
and the other one
would say well
we need to be
considerate
and maybe there's gonna be one more
we just have to watch and react
slowly uh and
(08:01):
and you know
for someone who watches
the 10 year
bond man it
it would look like a mountain
range yo uh
why do you think
we're hearing
from the Fed
in between meetings now
what I feel like is
more than we have in
in years yeah
I think it I think
it has to go with the mixed
bag that we have in the economy
right now so
it's two fold
I think is what one
(08:21):
we're paying
attention a lot more
and so when these people
when these people talk
in the past
it'd be like
you know whispering
in the woods
almost where
you know it's
like you know
if a tree falls
does anybody
really hear
it you know
cause nobody's paying attention
but the economy
is one of the
you know in a
2024 is an election year
the number one thing is gonna be the economy
when it comes to what
(08:42):
people care more about
care most about
with this election cycle
and with that
people are paying
attention to
what the Fed is saying
not just Jerome Powell
but also the local Fed chair
of the major
cities and so
when they talk
people are listening
and also they want to get their opinion out there
because it is such a
mix mix bag
on one hand
people are complaining
(09:02):
they're saying
why are interest
rates so high
why is prime
interest rate so high
why are my credit card
rates so high
and things like that
and they're coming out and saying
it's because of acts
it's because of why
you know inflation
employment you know
consumer sentiment
you know even though
it's up you know
it's not the best thing right now
where people are still
concerned about
the economy
people are paying more for groceries
(09:23):
that's you know
comes back to inflation
and so these chair
uh in all the
speakers of
particular cities
and major uh
Fed chairs they're
they're talking a lot more now
and the reason is
they wanna get their opinion out there
to show hey yeah
we've said that
we may have
a rate cuts
but if we don't do it
here's why you need
to know why
and here's what our
(09:44):
rationale is
I'm not cutting
rates as quickly
as you may want us to
and so they don't want
it to just be
a slap in the face
when they do
release their Fed
minutes after
the meeting
at the end of the month
yeah and Jerome pal
he's an attorney right
so he's gonna
be very cautious
on what he says um
at at the end of the meeting
and and yeah
it's it's just
been very interesting to me
to hear such a
(10:04):
posing viewpoints
in such a short timeline
and maybe you know
they're playing
local celebrity
and they want their
15 minutes of fame
sure but damn
does it rekill on the
on the market
oh it does whenever
somebody talks
and it does have to do with
the fact that
you know in
my 20+ career
in this business
this has been
the most volatile
(10:25):
market I've ever
seen you know
when somebody
sneezes the
the market has moved
in the past
over the past
year and a half
and it's just because
in all honesty
nobody's ever seen this before
we came from
historic low rates
during the pandemic now
and we've never seen
a fluctuation
go from you know
two and a half
two and three
quarter interest
rates up to
(10:45):
what we just talked
about 78% yep
in a relatively
short period of time
usually that's
fairly gradual
over you know
a five to ten year
span this time
it was two years
that we saw that
huge fluctuation
and so people are paying
attention to it more
any kind of
reaction to the market
from the people
that dictate the
prime interest
rate IE the Fed
we're gonna see
(11:05):
a reaction to this
to the tenure
Treasury note
to the bond market
and things like that
which directly
affect our mortgage
interest rates
and so that's why
we have seen that
that kind of knee
jerk reaction
like you said
the mountains uh
the mountains
and valleys
on the 10 year
Treasury note
in the bond market
and things like that
all right yeah
before we end
today I wanna
I wanna get your
opinion on this um
(11:26):
when will the
Fed cut rates
for the first
time this year
I feel like it's the
it's the big
big question right
like when we go
start seeing
some ease and
in these things
more than we've
already seen
what's your
predicting so
if you would
ask me this
in December
I would have
said by March
okay however
literally just
saw today that
everybody's
now saying that
March is pretty much
off the table
(11:47):
for the first
rate cut this year
so I'm gonna
be optimistic
and I'm gonna
hope for a rate
cut come April
okay that's my
that's my bold
prediction you know
if you got five bucks
put it on it
but you know
don't come to me
if it's wrong
I'm not putting
on April I'm
I'm putting on may
you're going
may okay I do
I think the
Fed is really
gonna try and
save some face
here I think
(12:08):
they're gonna ignore um
ignore economic
reports that come out
month over month
yep longer than
they should
in an effort to see
tell the tell
the markets
and tell the
world hey look
we didn't react
too harshly last year
we're gonna ease
out of this thing
we really wanna get it 2%
and my concern is
they're gonna
(12:28):
wait until may
and by the time
June and July hits
they're gonna
see that they
took it too far
they waited too long
they put too much
pressure and
too much tightening
on the market
and now we're going into
more recession
they've been
talking about
this whole soft
landing never
before done
in the history
of the United States
has there been
a soft landing
(12:48):
recession however
this Fed thinks
they figured
it out and I
I think they're
they're gonna
what what is it
off their nose
despite their face
yeah yeah I
feel really old
saying that
but like that
I feel like
that's what
they're gonna do
um and you know
and it goes
back to them
just not wanting
to be wrong
(13:09):
that's exactly right
which is it's
it's hurting us
absolutely but
they don't wanna
be wrong so
I hope that
they you know
take their heads out of
their proverbial
you know what
and and that's
why I'm hoping
for April but
you know who knows
you could be
right with may
if they don't
do it by may
though you know
it's good I think
it's gonna make for
unfortunately
not as good of a year
(13:30):
better than 2023
but I'm hoping
that they do it
sooner than later
because it's been
too long yeah
so that's good
yeah now it's
time for market
in a minute
this is where
we give you
an update on
the conditions
of the market
no matter the topic
of the show
this week we saw
conflicting
reports on whether
there will be
a recession
in 2024 or not
US leading Economy
index to climb
by point one %
(13:50):
in December
and that followed
a point five %
drop in November
and a point eight % drop in
October now
while 1.1% drop
in November
isn't a huge drop
and it's not
even as big
as the previous
months what
it does show is a
continued drop
even in the strong
economic month
like December
we're still
seeing that
month over month
decline and
that's really what
investors are
(14:10):
looking for
when they're
pricing in uh
potential score
or recessions
they are starting to begin
pricing recessions
as early as
second quarter
and in the third
quarter of 2024
that's right
in line for Fed
expectations
to begin dropping rates
so interesting time there
we've seen a ton
of activity
just in the
first three
weeks of 2024
tune in next week
(14:31):
we'll make sure
to give you
an update again
I will look
thank you for
listening today
this has been
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(14:53):
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(15:14):
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good morning
good afternoon
good evening
wherever you are and whenever you're listening
I want to congratulate you
on taking steps to being the expert in your field
today we are talking about the Fed meeting
that's gonna happen on January 30th and 31st
I've got Chris Brazell
director of operations
what's going on Chris
hey hunter how you doing today
doing good man
doing good so uh
let's jump into it uh
(00:21):
the Fed is meeting next week uh
and uh we are going to
hear what their first announcement of the New Year is
I think every Fed meeting that happens this year
we're gonna have a lot of anticipation in the market
right now now
I don't think we're gonna see anything this time around
I think the bomb
markets currently pricing at 97.4% chance of no change
(00:45):
and a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point drop
so less than 3% of the market is saying you know
we're going to get a little bit of a cut here
not gambling numbers
uh Chris talk about what that kind of does when
when you have such a
high expectation of no change in the bond market
(01:05):
uh right now
what is that due to
rates you know
are we getting a better rates and a lot
we had a lot of extra pricing last year um
in in the rates just because everyone was terrified
what what are we seeing right now
yep so it's
you know and again
thanks for having me on this conversation
it's always exciting talking about the Fed
you know what I mean
(01:25):
come on everybody let's go
but it is interesting though
because it's
the typically Fed meetings
don't get as much publicity as they will this year
so we've been in a continuously up
swinging market for the past couple years
as we all know
interest rates have gone up to their highest
levels in 20
30 years um
and so with that
everybody's kind of excited this year
(01:47):
cause the back in December
they talked about a potential multiple Fed rate cuts um
starting at the beginning of the year
now they've kind of dialed back on that a little bit
with the fact that now they're anticipating
probably this month nothing
um it leave everything kind of unchanged
how that affects rates is
in the past
investors were hedging with the fact that rates
(02:08):
were gonna continuously go up you know
that's why prime interest rate has gone up like 5%
over the past couple years
with that mortgage interest rates have gone up
so that because the investors were hedging
every time they're anticipated a Fed rate hike
now with the fact that we're hoping for
Fed to cut rates this year
um that basically what it's doing right now
(02:29):
it's stagnating the rates a little bit
and what that means is
we're not going up as much as we were
over the past six months
now back in November
we were dang near an 8% interest rate
yes we were
which was painful
as we all was
seeing that 8
scared the bejesus out of everybody
I mean I sevens were scary enough
but seeing an 8 in front of something good Lord
there's a new article on Yahoo
(02:50):
every day back then of
are we gonna see double digit mortgage rates again
that was that
that was terrifying for me
that was horrible man
double digits
I couldn't even imagine
but with that being said
they have come down a little bit
because of the fact we're anticipating
rate cuts this year yeah
so the stagnation is from the initial
(03:10):
I don't wanna call it a knee jerk reaction
cause nothing in this industry moves overnight
but they did have a good reaction
to the anticipation of rate cuts back in December
now with like you said
the 97.4 chance of no change at this meeting
coming up at the end of the month
I think we'll see rates stagnate
meaning we're not gonna see the major fluctuations
like we have over the past few months
(03:31):
yeah hopefully
you know they stay where they are
if not you know
trend a little bit lower
a little bit higher
you know just slight
changes one way or the other
and not where you wake up one day
and it's a quarter to 3/8 higher
yeah well that
that can bring me some peace of mind
as well I mean
it's not as low as we want
but also there's peace of mind
knowing that you know
for the young ELOs out there
that are fighting for every deal
(03:52):
you don't have to be terrified
that you lock your client tomorrow
and then the very next day
the bond drops 100 bases points
and you know
you're losing all those deals
um at the same time
you know agents who are talking to their clients
there's a little bit more um
consistency
as you know
Monday Tuesday
Wednesday goes so long
you can kind of give them the same rough numbers
(04:12):
if your clients are asking what rates are
because there's not as much swing
so that that is
there's piece of mind in that
that's correct
and also those agents that have
clients out there
that have been sitting on the fence
you know now
that they got so scared
that they're like
you know I don't wanna look now
cause when I find a house
my payments gonna be 50
hundred dollars higher
because rates have gone up
let's hope that this stabilization
(04:33):
to a certain
degree you know
barring any unforeseen
circumstances
that we can't predict
but let's hope this stabilization at least
comforts people to the fact
they can go out and start looking for houses
again that's it
that's good
yep yep um so
in December
we had higher income
or higher employment
numbers than
expected yep
and we know
(04:54):
we know that
the seasonal
seasonal employment
market is real
and January
does have the highest month
for layoffs
generally of the year
do you think the Fed
will you use that
or consider that information
the employment numbers
from December
when making their announcements
or do you think they're
(05:14):
they're pretty much
ready to wash 2023 of their hands
yeah I think
you're gonna see a marginal
reaction to that okay
because they do
there you know
even though they do base a lot of information
on unemployment figures
that it being at 3.7%
they predicted a slightly
higher number
it came in a little bit lower than
expectations
but guess what
they also revise
those numbers
too they do
(05:35):
so whenever they
initially come out
it used to be
low on employment
you're gonna see the rate spike
this time you know
it's not as much of
a dramatic change
just because of that
so they know
the seasonality of
December and then
like you said
January you're gonna see the
the layoffs
more people out in the job market
and what's gonna happen then
(05:56):
it won't have as much of a
hit then either
if the unemployment comes in higher
so they kind of wash
each other out
um and with that being said
you know it's kind of good
with the fact that they don't take it into
account as much
you know it's still
as a factor
you know unemployment
generally at a 3.7 number
is low you know
historically
(06:16):
speaking yeah
which is good
which usually drives
rates up um
but you know
there's other factors
involved in that you know
with the fact that
inflation is still
relatively high
compared to where they want it to be
and things like that
so they take it all into account
and so they're gonna wash their hands of it
we're gonna move on to 2024
and start using
I would say
February March
numbers are gonna have a more dramatic
(06:37):
impact than
December and January
yeah I think the Fed
predicted a 4.1%
average for unemployment 2024
so as you know
we see unemployment even just
just a little bit
I think that will help
inflationary numbers
as well yep
I agree with that
yeah and you know
the inflation
as we all know
they're still chasing that
2% inflation figure
(06:58):
which were not there
I don't think we're gonna get there
close to three
right yeah it's
sitting right around 3%
right now which is
it's better than we were
it's not where the Fed wants it
that's right
but you know
it is one of the factors that they still are using
to drive prime
interest rate yeah
so in the past
we really didn't hear much from the Fed
(07:20):
month to month
you know we would hear from
drone pal the
the Fed chair
at the end of the Fed meeting
but really that
that's all we got from the Fed
over the past
maybe even you know
in the last
last quarter of last year
we saw Atlanta Fed chair
Cleveland Fed chair
uh members come out and
(07:40):
and speak often times
opposing information
in the same week
and that would cause
a lot of turmoil
in the market
you would hear one
uh Fed chair
say you know
we're done cutting
uh we're done
increasing rates
and the other one
would say well
we need to be
considerate
and maybe there's gonna be one more
we just have to watch and react
slowly uh and
(08:01):
and you know
for someone who watches
the 10 year
bond man it
it would look like a mountain
range yo uh
why do you think
we're hearing
from the Fed
in between meetings now
what I feel like is
more than we have in
in years yeah
I think it I think
it has to go with the mixed
bag that we have in the economy
right now so
it's two fold
I think is what one
(08:21):
we're paying
attention a lot more
and so when these people
when these people talk
in the past
it'd be like
you know whispering
in the woods
almost where
you know it's
like you know
if a tree falls
does anybody
really hear
it you know
cause nobody's paying attention
but the economy
is one of the
you know in a
2024 is an election year
the number one thing is gonna be the economy
when it comes to what
(08:42):
people care more about
care most about
with this election cycle
and with that
people are paying
attention to
what the Fed is saying
not just Jerome Powell
but also the local Fed chair
of the major
cities and so
when they talk
people are listening
and also they want to get their opinion out there
because it is such a
mix mix bag
on one hand
people are complaining
(09:02):
they're saying
why are interest
rates so high
why is prime
interest rate so high
why are my credit card
rates so high
and things like that
and they're coming out and saying
it's because of acts
it's because of why
you know inflation
employment you know
consumer sentiment
you know even though
it's up you know
it's not the best thing right now
where people are still
concerned about
the economy
people are paying more for groceries
(09:23):
that's you know
comes back to inflation
and so these chair
uh in all the
speakers of
particular cities
and major uh
Fed chairs they're
they're talking a lot more now
and the reason is
they wanna get their opinion out there
to show hey yeah
we've said that
we may have
a rate cuts
but if we don't do it
here's why you need
to know why
and here's what our
(09:44):
rationale is
I'm not cutting
rates as quickly
as you may want us to
and so they don't want
it to just be
a slap in the face
when they do
release their Fed
minutes after
the meeting
at the end of the month
yeah and Jerome pal
he's an attorney right
so he's gonna
be very cautious
on what he says um
at at the end of the meeting
and and yeah
it's it's just
been very interesting to me
to hear such a
(10:04):
posing viewpoints
in such a short timeline
and maybe you know
they're playing
local celebrity
and they want their
15 minutes of fame
sure but damn
does it rekill on the
on the market
oh it does whenever
somebody talks
and it does have to do with
the fact that
you know in
my 20+ career
in this business
this has been
the most volatile
(10:25):
market I've ever
seen you know
when somebody
sneezes the
the market has moved
in the past
over the past
year and a half
and it's just because
in all honesty
nobody's ever seen this before
we came from
historic low rates
during the pandemic now
and we've never seen
a fluctuation
go from you know
two and a half
two and three
quarter interest
rates up to
(10:45):
what we just talked
about 78% yep
in a relatively
short period of time
usually that's
fairly gradual
over you know
a five to ten year
span this time
it was two years
that we saw that
huge fluctuation
and so people are paying
attention to it more
any kind of
reaction to the market
from the people
that dictate the
prime interest
rate IE the Fed
we're gonna see
(11:05):
a reaction to this
to the tenure
Treasury note
to the bond market
and things like that
which directly
affect our mortgage
interest rates
and so that's why
we have seen that
that kind of knee
jerk reaction
like you said
the mountains uh
the mountains
and valleys
on the 10 year
Treasury note
in the bond market
and things like that
all right yeah
before we end
today I wanna
I wanna get your
opinion on this um
(11:26):
when will the
Fed cut rates
for the first
time this year
I feel like it's the
it's the big
big question right
like when we go
start seeing
some ease and
in these things
more than we've
already seen
what's your
predicting so
if you would
ask me this
in December
I would have
said by March
okay however
literally just
saw today that
everybody's
now saying that
March is pretty much
off the table
(11:47):
for the first
rate cut this year
so I'm gonna
be optimistic
and I'm gonna
hope for a rate
cut come April
okay that's my
that's my bold
prediction you know
if you got five bucks
put it on it
but you know
don't come to me
if it's wrong
I'm not putting
on April I'm
I'm putting on may
you're going
may okay I do
I think the
Fed is really
gonna try and
save some face
here I think
(12:08):
they're gonna ignore um
ignore economic
reports that come out
month over month
yep longer than
they should
in an effort to see
tell the tell
the markets
and tell the
world hey look
we didn't react
too harshly last year
we're gonna ease
out of this thing
we really wanna get it 2%
and my concern is
they're gonna
(12:28):
wait until may
and by the time
June and July hits
they're gonna
see that they
took it too far
they waited too long
they put too much
pressure and
too much tightening
on the market
and now we're going into
more recession
they've been
talking about
this whole soft
landing never
before done
in the history
of the United States
has there been
a soft landing
(12:48):
recession however
this Fed thinks
they figured
it out and I
I think they're
they're gonna
what what is it
off their nose
despite their face
yeah yeah I
feel really old
saying that
but like that
I feel like
that's what
they're gonna do
um and you know
and it goes
back to them
just not wanting
to be wrong
(13:09):
that's exactly right
which is it's
it's hurting us
absolutely but
they don't wanna
be wrong so
I hope that
they you know
take their heads out of
their proverbial
you know what
and and that's
why I'm hoping
for April but
you know who knows
you could be
right with may
if they don't
do it by may
though you know
it's good I think
it's gonna make for
unfortunately
not as good of a year
(13:30):
better than 2023
but I'm hoping
that they do it
sooner than later
because it's been
too long yeah
so that's good
yeah now it's
time for market
in a minute
this is where
we give you
an update on
the conditions
of the market
no matter the topic
of the show
this week we saw
conflicting
reports on whether
there will be
a recession
in 2024 or not
US leading Economy
index to climb
by point one %
(13:50):
in December
and that followed
a point five %
drop in November
and a point eight % drop in
October now
while 1.1% drop
in November
isn't a huge drop
and it's not
even as big
as the previous
months what
it does show is a
continued drop
even in the strong
economic month
like December
we're still
seeing that
month over month
decline and
that's really what
investors are
(14:10):
looking for
when they're
pricing in uh
potential score
or recessions
they are starting to begin
pricing recessions
as early as
second quarter
and in the third
quarter of 2024
that's right
in line for Fed
expectations
to begin dropping rates
so interesting time there
we've seen a ton
of activity
just in the
first three
weeks of 2024
tune in next week
(14:31):
we'll make sure
to give you
an update again
I will look
thank you for
listening today
this has been
mortgage mindset
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today we'll
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the Mortgage Mindset Podcast is hosted by The Sherry
Riano Team at Clear Mortgage
powered by City First Mortgage Services LLC
share Rihanna's NMLS ID 7 1 7 7 4
(14:53):
visit us at the share Rihanna team.com
for more information about our team
the opinions expressed on the show by the host
and their guests of their own
and do not necessarily
reflect the views and opinions of Clear Mortgage
or City First Mortgage Services
please note
that Clear Mortgage is powered by City First Mortgage
LLC and their analyst ID is 3 1 1 7
Clear Mortgage and City First Mortgage Services
is not an agency of the Federal Government
is not acting on behalf of
or the direction of HUD FHA
City First Mortgage Services is an Equal Housing Lender
programs rates
and terms subject to change without notice
(15:14):
underwriting terms and conditions apply
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