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February 7, 2024 • 14 mins
In Episode 6 of the Mortgage Mindset podcast, join Hunter and Sherry as they unpack the latest Federal Reserve update and dissect the recent jobs report. Discover why mortgage rates are on the move and the outcomes of the latest Fed meeting. This episode is a must-listen for realtors and real estate professionals looking for insights into the current financial landscape and strategies to navigate the evolving market. Tune in to stay informed and ahead in 2024!
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(00:03):
Goodmorning, good afternoon,
good evening.
Whereveryou are and whenever
you're listening,
Iwant to congratulate you on
taking steps towards betting
yourself and being the
professional in your field.
This is hunter Boyd on
mortgage mindset.
Weare here today with sherry,
Riano.What's up, sherry? Hey,
how's it going today?
Going good. It's going good.
Great week for us.
It's been wild.
We had our first fed up

(00:25):
date of the year,
and some surprising things.
Not so much today.
We'regoing to talk about what
we heard this week also talk
aboutwhat we think is going to
happenover the next 30 and 60
days. let's kick it off, though.
No change, no surprise.
So no drop in bond.
AndI don't think anymore was
expecting that we had a 97%
plus chance of no change.

(00:46):
AndI think investors got that
right.Obviously not till march.
That's exactly right.
That's exactly right.
Investors are still pricing in a
march change and at least
a 25 basis point drop.
ButJerome Powell actually came
out this week and said he
doesn't think March is likely.
Now,
whether that is because he's
trying to save face or he's

(01:07):
trying to look at a little bit
more inflationary data,
we'll see that over the next
month or so. Sherry,
what do you think?
whyare we seeing the kind of
catand mouse game for March?
I feel like a lot of investors
are still pricing it in,
but Jerome's really not
giving us much. Well,
welcome to our world. Yeah,

(01:27):
it's constantly that way.
And this time of year,
especiallywhen we've got that
potential to have a drop,
but not have a drop.
Look,
theydon't want to overcommit,
but Jerome Powell a couple
of months ago said, hey,
we're going to keep raising
rates. And it wasn't,
I don't even think,
two weeks later,
and we're dropping rates.
SoI'm not sure Jerome knows
what Jerome's doing,
but I could be wrong because

(01:48):
I don't have his job.
But I think they like to keep
themarkets. I think, you know,
in that.
That's why we feel this
turbulent up and down
with the know,
it looks like rates are
starting to go down.
We get a little comfort there,
andthen they like to come talk,
and then it stirs the
whole market up,
and that affects all of us.
I do think there's data
he's looking for.

(02:09):
and I'll let you talk a little
bitmore about what he believes
good data is.
Andthen I want to chime into
what I believe good data is.
Yeah,
so we're still seeing
inflation too high.
It's right now sitting at 3.4%.
The fed has continued to say
they want to see it at 2%.
And how to get there they
touched on a little bit this

(02:30):
week is they said they
were looking for,
quote unquote good data a
continuation of good data.
And what does that mean?
So I think what we're looking
for is prices to drop.
We're looking for the grocery
bill to be eased a little bit.
maybe some rent costs
starting to go down,
whichwe have seen over the last
sixmonths that started to drop,
but I think they want that

(02:51):
a little bit longer.
theyreally have harped on this
2% inflation or number
for a while,
andsome people don't think it's
a realistic expectation or a
realistic accomplishment,
but the fed seem to think so,
andthey seem to think they can
do it without a recession.
so continuing to look
for good data,
whetherit's an ease of the gas

(03:13):
pump,groceries, rent, whatever,
howlong do you think they need
tosee that for before they will
actually consider dropping?
I'm thinking they're going to
look for a good strong six
months of that happening.
gas prices have been going
down for a while.
We've noticed it at the tank.
But the reality is,
I don't know about you,
but I currently have a

(03:34):
family of two now,
because as you all will know,
Richard and are empty
nesters now.
And when we can spend $200
at the grocery store,
and I'm not talking about
getting the fillet
mignon people,
I'm talking about getting
chicken breast. Yeah.
And I'm rolling out of there
with $200 of just basic food
items. I look around and go,
how does a family of four

(03:55):
make this work for them?
You really got to have
either mom or Daddy,
whoeverhappens to be at home
raising the children.
Or if you're both working,
that's fine too.
Butsomebody's got that pencil
sharpened. Yeah.
Because otherwise you're not
getting to go do anything.
And that's hard on a,
knowthe fed let this inflation

(04:16):
rate go way too. Yeah.
A lot of the economists were
pushingthe button way before
they had ever done
and it's amazing to me that,
that all of a sudden became
their concern when they let
inflation get up to 6%.
Right.
And I do think that's why
they've kind of left good data
slightly ambiguous as well.
Becausethey didn't give us an

(04:38):
indication on what they
were watching before,
andthey don't want to give us
an indication of what they're
watching for now,
because if they give us, hey,
look,
we need to see
gas prices, pre Covid,
or we need to see the cost of
thegrocery store dropped back
to pre Covid existence or
something along those lines,
then that is a barometer that

(04:59):
we can hold them to.
Whereas the Fed doesn't like
thatkind of barometer because
theywant to be able to kind of
easeand flow a little bit more
than the market really
is comfortable with.
I think
we'll see that in that March
April timeline where
expectations are.
We will start to see a drop.
They may hold it for

(05:19):
a month longer,
or two months even longer.
They'vealways said we're going
tokeep rates higher for longer.
so I think we will see
that more. Yeah,
I would tend to agree.
Andthen we got this beautiful
jobs number this morning.
That is not good data.
Oh, yeah.
I was driving in and I was
listening to squawk,
andI think I almost wrecked my

(05:40):
truck. It's good for America.
I mean, truly it is.
I mean, we hate to say it,
butthe jobs report guys came
in today, 353,000 new jobs.
That is not farming jobs.
That is outside of
that industry.
And I think the expectation
was like 180. We got 180.
Soalmost double the expected
new jobs for in January.

(06:00):
there was a general surprise
across the market
at this number.
You could see in the ten year.
I mean,
the ten year looked like they
werebuilding a wall. I looked.
Itwas up 14 basis points from.
Yesterday,
justskyrocketing this morning
as I was watching it.
And that's because
when the Fed says,
weare looking for a reflection

(06:22):
of this tightening that
we've put on America,
jobs is one of the items that
they're looking for.
They're looking for a higher
unemployment rate.
They're looking for less new
jobsto show that companies are
out there still spending
the way they have been.
And normally in January,
we see that because of all of
theseasonal layoffs that they
hadfrom having Christmas sales

(06:43):
and all the little part
time people, they add.
Andso you usually do see that.
Sothis was quite an interesting
surprise, I think,
foreverybody across the board.
Yeah,
January is one of the highest
monthsfor layoffs of the year.
And to see 353,000, man,
that just really kind
of shook the market.
I think over the next week,

(07:04):
you're going to see investors,
maybe start to price in the
first cut, more into April,
more into May.
If you were listening to
a couple weeks ago,
Chris Brazell and I were on,
and he was pricing in the
first cut at April,
I think more may timeline.
And a lot of that I think is
just the fed also trying
to save face. I mean,
you got to remember last

(07:24):
quarter of last year,
they were still talking about
potential rate hikes.
This month is the first time
they've officially said they
think they're done raising
rates. Up until this point,
theyhave considered another
hike in the market.
Whether they were really
going to or not,
we'll never know,
but at least that's what they
were telling the market.
Butlet me talk to you people.
This is an election year.

(07:45):
That's true.
So I'm going to put my bet on
March because if we
get it in March,
we'regoing to start feeling the
effects coming April. May.
You don't put it on until
April or May.
We don't feel the effects
to come into August.
Sothe housing is not going to
look so good going
into first ever.
Whoeveryou do or don't like is

(08:05):
not going to be looking
too good.
Andeverybody wants it to look
really nice at this point.
So just thought,
just my little random head,
but it's what I've seen in the
pastwhen we have gone through
election years,
I've always seen if we were
going to have a cut,
itseems like they would target
it around March. Yeah,
I agree with there.
I do think election year is
going to play a huge part in

(08:26):
this this year. Sherry,
whenyou talk about elections
and you talk about who's
potentially going to take the
helm next or retain the helm,
whatdo you think the market is
watching for when they
talk about this?
It's just
themarket was probably looking

(08:49):
for in our world,
theyalways like the republican
side because it's less
government. Right? Yeah.
Andso the market always kind
of likes to lean that way.
But then, of course,
theDemocrats have also helped
us with oversight.
when we went through 2008,
those guys stepped in
and gave a lot of,

(09:09):
we got a lot of layering
and laws now,
but we could have tapped
brakes a little bit.
But at the same time,
we needed that correction
because we were Yahoo.
And all over the I think,
you know,
themarket itself would love to
see a Republican back
in the office.
It just feels right.
We're getting ready to talk

(09:31):
about maybe cutting loose
conservatorship with
Fannie and Freddie.
Alot of people are ready to see
thathappen, even the investors.
and I think a lot of people
are keeping that in mind,
becauseunder democratic rule,
it's likely that we will not see
thatdissolved until we do get a
Republican back in the office.

(09:51):
Another thing that I think is
big for this year and always
seemsto line up with election
years is the new child tax
creditand how that is putting
moremoney in families pockets
and things like that.
do you think that will
have any effect on
interest rates, the market?
I mean,
whenyou look at the market,
you're always looking for

(10:14):
when you're looking for
an interest rate drop,
you're looking for less
money in the market,
less people spending,
more people holding on
to funds and stuff,
saving up for those rainy
day funds and stuff.
Doyou think that an increase in
childtax credit could encourage
the fed to hold on longer
becausethere's more money in
America'spocket? Absolutely,
becausethere's more money being

(10:36):
spent. So without a doubt,
that's going to be something
to keep in mind.
Itreminds me very much of the
stimuluschecks that we received
a few years ago where
it was like it.
Was raining money when
it was Covid.
You just go to the mailbox
and there's money. Yeah.
Andthat money comes at a cost.
When you have that many,
much more people spending,
that's going to decrease the

(10:58):
expectation for the market
of a downturn. Right.
Andthat means there's going
to be more money in it.
There'speople going to try and
make more money off of it.
so,
really a tricky balance there.
agreed. Yeah.
There's a fine line to walk on,
whethergetting that approved or
not. Well, hey, real quickly,

(11:18):
becauseI'm going to jump into
something different here
with you today.
Talk about trigger leads.
Youwant to talk about them?
Let's do it. All right.
So,just to give people insight,
whenanyone pulls your credit
especially in the mortgage
industry
the credit bureaus love to
sell your information.

(11:38):
And if you've ever noticed,
if you've applied
for a mortgage,
all of a sudden you get 100
calls from 100 different
loan companies,
and all you can think of is,
where did you get
my information?
You can thank the credit
bureaus for that.
They're selling your
information. Now,
there is a new law that is
going to be proposed,
and it's going in front of
Congressthat would stop that.

(11:59):
So we're going to talk about
that more over the
next week or so.
I'mgoing to give you a lot more
details and where to go
to sign petitions,
because I think we all are
kind of over that.
It's just overkill.
andso just wanted to give you
a little insight on that.
And yeah,
that'smy two cent worth today.
Thanks for the plug.

(12:20):
And now it's time for
market in a minute.
This is where we give you an
update on the condition of
the market each week,
nomatter the topic of the show.
So you'realways getting current
information each week.
This week,
we didhave an unexpected report
fromthe Federal Reserve that
cautionedthat inflation could
fluctuate unpredictably
throughout the year.
andwhat that can do is that can
resultin a slower than desired

(12:40):
decreasein rates from the Fed.
If there's a concern that
inflation could go back up,
theymay not be as tempted to
drop rates as they once were.
I do think that this is just
a little bit of reactionary
reading from December,
where we saw inflation go up
from 3.1 in November to 3.4.
But it's also not considering

(13:01):
that December is a high
shopping month.
there's going to be a higher
rateof temporary employment
happening.
It's a hard month to gauge
a year off of.
I think that's really what
we're dealing here with.
Ithink as we go into January's
readings and February's
readings,
we continue to see a decline
month over month.
We'regoing to see the Fed begin

(13:21):
to really talk about dropping
those rates again,
significantly. Of course,
everytime they do talk about
it at a fed level,
you'regoing to see rates react.
Sowe want to make sure we're
monitoring our rates,
watching the ten year bonds.
We don't want to lock
clients in too soon.
We also don't want to lock
them in too late.
This has been a market
in a minute.
Tune in next week for the
next episode. Look,
thishas been mortgage mindset.
Hit that like button.

(13:42):
Hit that subscribe button.
We're here to help you
be the professional.
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you in your career.
tunein every week. Wednesdays.
We're here to share a little
bit more about the market.
We'll talk to you next week.
Themortgage Mindset podcast is
hosted by the Share Rihanna
team at Clear Mortgage,
poweredby city First Mortgage
Services, LlC.
Share Rihanna's NMLs
id is 71774.

(14:03):
Visit us at the
sharereanateam.comfor more
information about our team.
Theopinions expressed on this
show by the hosts and their
guestsare their own and do not
necessarily reflect the views
andopinions of clear mortgage
orcity first mortgage services.
Pleasenote that Clear mortgage
is powered by City First
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Idis three 1117 Clear mortgage
andcity first mortgage services
is not an agency of the

(14:23):
federal government,
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