S9 Ep54: Espresso Martini | Israel vs. Iran, Trump Wavers, and Moscow’s China Paranoia

This week, Chris and Matt dive into the war between Israel and Iran, now entering its second week, with President Trump weighing a direct US strike on Iran’s deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility. They unpack how the conflict began, Mossad’s covert sabotage campaign, the mounting civilian toll, and the split between Israeli and US intelligence over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. They also explore how Trump’s political coalition is fracturing over potential US military involvement, whether the Iranian regime can survive the assault, and what might come next. Then, they turn to leaked documents revealing how Russia’s FSB sees China as a serious espionage threat, despite public rhetoric of partnership. They wrap with thoughts on MI6’s new chief and the legacy of spy fiction giant Frederick Forsyth.

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Articles discussed in today’s episode

"Israel Built Its Case for War With Iran on New Intelligence. The U.S. Didn’t Buy It." by Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman & Dustin Volz | The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-built-its-case-for-war-with-iran-on-new-intelligence-the-u-s-didnt-buy-it-55592e81

"Exclusive: Inside the spy dossier that led Israel to war" | The Economist: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/06/18/exclusive-inside-the-spy-dossier-that-led-israel-to-war

"How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel" by Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti & Ronen Bergman | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/us/politics/trump-iran-israel-nuclear-talks.html

"This War Is Not Helping Us" by Arash Azizi | The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/06/iran-opposition-israel-war/683207/

"Hegseth defers to general on Pentagon’s plans for Iran" by Jack Detsch & Paul McLeary | Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/17/hegseth-erik-kurilla-iran-pentagon-response-00411007

"US Decision On Striking Iran To Be Made In 'Next Two Weeks’" by Thomas Newdick | The War Zone: https://www.twz.com/air/u-s-decision-on-striking-iran-to-be-made-in-next-two-weeks

"Israeli Airstrikes Blunt Iranian Long-Range Ballistic Missile Threat" by Howard Altman & Tyler Rogoway | The War Zone: https://www.twz.com/news-features/israeli-airstrikes-blunt-iranian-long-range-ballistic-missile-launch-capabilities

"Spike Missiles That Destroyed Air Defenses From Inside Iran Were Remotely Operated" by Howard Altman | The War Zone: https://www.twz.com/news-features/spike-missiles-that-destroyed-air-defenses-from-inside-iran-were-remotely-operated

"Secret Russian Inte