September 27, 2024 • 36 mins
Colin reacts to the Dallas Cowboys ugly win over the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football!
He breaks down why things aren’t hopeless for the Giants, why they are a quarterback away from being competitive, why the Giants would be far better than the Cowboys if they traded quarterbacks and why the Giants are in prime position to draft their quarterback of the future next year (3:00).
Then Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice week 4 of the NFL season!
23:30 - Jets vs Broncos
25:30 - Steelers vs Colts
28:15 - Bears vs Rams
31:00 - Packers vs Vikings
33:15 - Seahawks vs Lions
35:00 - Bill vs Ravens
41:45 - Commanders vs Cardinals
45:30 - Jaguars vs Texans
46:30 - Chargers vs Chiefs
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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What time is it? Game Time? All right? Little instant
reaction on the Cowboys twenty fifteen Way and God that
(01:04):
was ugly. Dallas had eleven penalties. You know, I want
to start with the New York Giants because if I
said there's a team in the state of New York,
Brian dabols on the offensive side, Singletary's one of the
running backs, good left tackle, serviceable o line, one, great weapon,
(01:24):
really strong defensive front. No, that's not the Buffalo Bills.
That's the Giants. And if you gave Josh Allen to
the Giants, we would talk about them in the Super
Bowl bubble. The Giants have a lot of components that
Super Bowl teams have outside of quarterback. They need to
draft a running back. They need more juice in the backfield,
which the Bills did for years until they drafted James Cook.
(01:46):
They had Devin Singletary, who who doesn't didn't have a
lot of breakaway speed, but for years, you know, once
they got Stefon Diggs, it was good defensive front, capable coach,
dable in the room, Singletary at back, good left tackle,
serviceable ole line, excellent defensive front, one great weapon. So
I don't think the Giants are hopeless. They just Brian
(02:07):
Dabole is coaching his butt off. I mean, Daniel Jones.
Tonight they dominate time of possession. With no run game
and an average quarterback below average, they literally dominate time
of possession. Daniel Jones goes twenty nine to forty until
the very end, didn't have an interception, no touchdowns, He's
(02:29):
not throwing interceptions anymore. And they go against Dallas and
with no deep down the field thread, they're getting the
ball to neighbors. He had twelve catches. But the Giants,
with no run game and a mediocre quarterback dominate time
of possession against Dak Prescott, pretty good quarterback, and Mike McCarthy,
a super Bowl winning coach. I think Daboll is you
(02:52):
know he would never win like even honorable mentioned Coach
of the Year, but because their record won't be good.
But it's not like the Giants are hopeles. They're just
hopeless quarterback. And so that's where an owner interfered and
a general manager and a coach are doing the best
they can, but they're a little bit trapped because you
know they're gonna have dead cap money if they move off.
(03:13):
Daniel Jones, he is serviceable now. He could certainly on
the market. Somebody would come after him. Be serviceable. He
probably wouldn't be good elsewhere because he wouldn't have neighbors
and he wouldn't have Dable. But there's pieces of the
Giants that Super Bowl teams have really good defensively up front,
above average left tackle, great weapon Dable on the offensive
(03:35):
side if they had the quarterback right So people look
at the Giants and think they're hopeless. If it was
a great quarterback class. This is a six win team,
five win team, you'd get one of them. It's not
there's a couple of guys. Even the Georgia quarterback now
with Georgia's O line beat up, looks pretty average. Right
like against Kentucky couldn't move the ball. Quinn Ewers maybe
(03:58):
at number one can Ward? I like those two shouldar standers.
Worries me a little, you know, you know, I wish
he would be a little more chill. But he can play.
So you probably have three or four quarterbacks in the
first round. They probably have to draft one. If I
was a Giants, I would draft one because I don't
think they have a ton of needs. You can get
running backs. I was just talking to a general manager
(04:19):
last night. History tells you, analytics tell you the running
backs You can get your running backs third, fourth, fifth,
sixth rounds. Don't draft them in the first two rounds.
Unless you get like a Saquan or an Adrian Peterson
or a Ze you know you don't need to. So
it's you. Giants will draft a quarterback. They considered it
this year, and you know if the kids, you know,
(04:40):
the offensive line now is more than capable. But Brian
Dables excellent. He's doing a great job to dominate time
of possession and the until the end. Again, Daniel Jones
didn't have an interception. More than capable. I mean the
guy threw for you know, two hundred and some seventy five,
two hundred eighty yards with really no deep balls and
no run game. They just got to get the quarterback right.
(05:02):
And again, Quinn Ewers is an NFL quarterback. Shanor Sanders
is back from Georgia, and cam Ward, so you're gonna
have four first round quarterbacks. I think Riley Leonard late
first second. He's a little wild, you know, great athlete,
big size, not great in the accuracy. Can you teach
him to do that? You know NFL people probably could.
(05:22):
Josh Allen was wild. People still like Anthony Richardson and
he is forty nine completion percentage. So I know you
think that the Giants. I know Jmack probably thinks all
is lost with the Giants. They just got to get
the quarterback, right, stable, left tackle, neighbors, good defensive front.
They got pieces. They got pieces the Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile,
(05:47):
it was eleven penalties. Jesus, if you took Ceedee Lamb
out of this team, there is nothing there. I mean,
there's just and their fullback is like a weapon, you know.
I like their field goal kicker and missed one at
the end, damn it. But you know, neither team really
(06:07):
had a run game tonight. I just think, you know, again,
let's talk about this. Oh, if the New York Giants
hit on a quarterback next year, Let's say the Patriots
aren't going to draft the quarterback because they have Drake May.
Carolina probably would, right Tennessee, if they're bad, probably would.
(06:27):
Although I think they figure out a way to win
four or five six games. But a lot of the
bad teams have their quarterbacks, right, they're gonna give them
a shot. So the Giants win five games, you know
they're not going to be Dallas five or six wins.
They'll probably have the fifth, sixth pick, and a lot
of the bad teams just got their quarterback, so they're
gonna get one of these quarterbacks. I like their future.
(06:48):
I like Dable more than Mike McCarthy. I like the
Giants defensive line more than Dallas. I like their left
tackle more than Dallas. They both have good weapons. Owner,
I'll take the Giants. I guess the Giants just need
a quarterback and pick up a running back in the
fourth or fifth round. They've got a lot of components.
Dallas is kind of trapped. They're paying CD of fortune.
(07:10):
They'll pay Micah, who I like. I don't love a fortune.
They're paying dack of fortune. Owner vain more about, you know,
getting attention than and being remarkably interesting and talked about
more than I think really winning titles. Despite what he says,
(07:30):
their offensive line is just okay, no juice in the backfield,
average it tight end, very ced Lamb and he's great,
but very ced Lamb centric. I don't see this great future.
And they're stuck with Dak, who's good B Plus, it's
like having Kirk Cousins in his prime. It's good. Be plush.
We wouldn't get to the playoffs. But if the Giants
next year, let's say they have the fourth pick in
(07:52):
the draft, and you know, Travis Hunter from Colorado goes
number one, and let's say somebody likes cam Ward he
goes to and the Giants move up a spot, give
up some draft picks, and they get quinn Ewrs and
he's good. And Brian Dable is really good with quarterbacks.
He's made Daniel Jones now that he has one weapon
(08:12):
and a more serviceable old line capable, not special capable.
So it's like, who would have the better future if
you got quinn Ewers or back and you established pretty quickly.
Guy can play Little Bumpy for sure, guy can play
whose future? Do you like? Dabors Dable weapons? You can
get a running back every year, just draft them. They're
(08:33):
out there. I don't know's I know Dallas dominates this series,
and I know everybody thinks, you know, oh Dallas, Dax.
You know, the star in the hel butt is very influential.
But you know you're stuck with McCarthy at least for
the rest of this year. Eleven penalties, so he's always
been penalty plagued. I mean tonight, Mike has heard DeMarcus
(08:55):
Lawrence banged up. I don't know, maybe I'm being just
overly negative. Laker fans feel the same way, but this
I said this today on FS one. You know, family
owned and operated just felt better twenty years ago. I
think now as you're can have a deli like that,
But in tech I don't want a family owned and
operated tech giant.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
You know.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
Maybe that's what Larry Elison has with Oracle, maybe that's it.
But by and large, I like the staying kronkey of
the world. I like, you know, the Allen family in Seattle,
York family in San Francisco. I big money, something beyond
(09:39):
just the team. I don't think Dallas's future is bright.
I really don't. And it's not a shot at Dak.
I mean, God, if you put Daniel Jones on the
Cowboys and Dak on the Giants, Giant or playoff team,
absolutely Cowboys are bad, bad. I mean, you wouldn't even
have to get a great one quarterback With Dable and
(10:01):
the Giants defensive front neighbors and they're left tackle, you
wouldn't need a great quarterback. You'd need Dak. He'd be
a playoff team every year. Hell Eli Manning wasn't a
great regular season quarterback, but he was great, always arrived, Ohway,
was healthy, always playing two minute drill, and good in
the playoffs. Think about this, dak Is twenty four and
four against Washington and the New York Giants. That's not
(10:24):
going to continue. Davile's getting his quarterback next year. Washington
has there. It was like Big Ben for years eight
on Cincinnati and Cleveland. Then Burrow showed up, Baker showed
up and didn't feel the same. And so when you
get that eight nine year window with a big franchise
a Dallas or at Pittsburgh and you have the lesser
(10:44):
halves or the have nots in your division and you're
just dominating you for late nine years, you got to
get multiple playoff wins. You got to show up in
the conference championship. You got to show up in a
super Bowl. Pittsburgh did it. You know, Pittsburgh, Tomlin, they
get to a couple of Super Bowls. Okay, they be
in Arizona, they beat the Seattle, they got theirs. It
didn't end like you'd like in Pittsburgh, but they got theirs.
(11:06):
When Cincinnati and Cleveland were you know, not great, didn't
have star quarterbacks. Well, Washington and New York since Eli
left have been a mess. What's Dallas haveing a show
for it? Twenty four to four? It's just two and
Oho every year not in the show for it. They
beat the New York Giants last year by seventy two
combined points. The Cowboys did it tonight. They needed a
(11:28):
guy who can kick long field goals, so I and
and Dables getting his guy in this draft. They're going
to have a top six to seventh pick, and there's
four quarterbacks and Travis Hunter's going to be one of
the top guys taken. Will Johnson that corner for Michigan's
going to be one of the top guys taken. So
there's a tackle of Texas probably going to be one
of those guys taken. There's a defensive tackle for Kentucky's
(11:50):
probably going to be one of those guys taken. Giants
are getting a quarterback, maybe the second choice for Dable.
But they're getting somebody. So is that too negative? I
don't know. I you know, Dak has over forty percent
of his wins on the Giants and Washington. But now
(12:11):
that Jadeen Daniels is cooking, and he looks like he
can't really play now that Jade Daniels is cooking, and
the Eagles role is gonna have players With Harry Roseman,
I think, I think the days of getting fat on
Washington and the Giants are over, and the Giants are
gonna get into our quarterback next year. And Dable's really
good with quarterbacks. This was not Davie's quarterback. He wouldn't
(12:32):
have drafted him. He's not his guy. They didn't want
to give him the extension. Don't don't blame Dabel for this.
That's that's upstairs, that's Mara. He'll get the quarterback he
wants next year. Dabel and those quarterbacks, he'll have the influence,
he'll have the call with Joe Shane the GM they'll
get somebody. Cam Ward can play in the NFL. Quin
yours can play. Schador can play a little bit too
much personality for me, but he can play and back
(12:53):
at Georgia. So that's that's four. That's four guys, and
somebody will emerge over the next six to seven weeks.
And I know it. It's easy to beat up on
teams like the New York Giants right now. But I
see a lot of good pieces with Dallas. I see
a lot of big contracts and one great player in
CD lab. That's all I see. Blazing five tomorrow on
(13:17):
FS one. Let's listen to Chad Millman, Sharper Square, td
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Speaker 1 (14:52):
All Right Time for an utter edition of Sharper Square
Chadmilman CCO Action Network. All of our odds provided by DraftKings.
I don't have referendums or declarations very often, but officially
I will never bet Trevor Lawrence again for the rest
of my adult life, and I'm going to stick with
that one.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
The number of times I have made those kinds of
declarations and then the very next week gone on to
bet the exact team or player I said I would
never bet again, including by the way, last week when
I bet the Carolina Panthers because Andy Dollin was the
quarterback after I had sworn off the Carolina Panthers. So
(15:33):
be careful what you say, because you might have to
walk it back.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
All right, this is an interesting week, so I usually
feel first couple of weeks I'm kind of feeling it out.
I never used to feel that way, but because nobody
plays anybody in preseason, fewer padded practices, I kind of
feel like the Jets in Week one offensively or awful.
Then all of a sudden you watch them and you're like, wow,
they lead the NFL in third down percentage. Like stuff
(15:58):
happens fast because either Sean McVay, fewer padded practices, I'm
not going to play any starters, but I do feel
like I have. I kind of feel like I have.
I got my feet beneath me on the league. But
this is an instructive moment, and I'll tell you I
want to start with this because I part of why
I like doing Sharper Square. I liked teaching myself stuff
(16:20):
and the audience. So I really liked the Jets early
in the week at minus six and a half. I
think it's a bad spot for a rookie quarterback traveling
going back, I get a veteran extra rest. This is
a bad spot for bow Nicks. I thought Tampa I
picked them in that week it was a good spot.
And with rookie quarterbacks it's a lot of where you
land and how the schedule looks. Same with rookie coaches.
(16:42):
New England on a Thursday night, bad spot off an
overtime game. So I liked the Jets a lot. And
now it's seven and a half and I don't bet teams.
I bet numbers in this league. So now I like
Denver and just because of a point swing. So just
as a point of instruction, how do the wise guys
(17:02):
view that game?
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Well, they're going to bet Denver at seven and a half,
and that's sort of what they've been waiting for. What
you're doing, naturally, because you've been watching football and thinking
about this for a long time, is looking at the
number seven. It's a key number, right, and the key
numbers mean that's the number that's the delta of between
(17:28):
the two scores that a lot of games land on
in the NFL seven four three two. With the extra
point changes the past couple of years, those are now
the key numbers, and those are the ones that wise
guys want to get on the right side of. So
you liked New York at six and a half because
(17:48):
it was on the right side of that key number
of seven. You like Denver on the seven and a
half because now you're on the right side of seven
for Denver. So that is the delta, by the and
that is the very very thin line between success and failure.
We're talking about half a point in your logic, but
(18:11):
that is the difference between winning and losing in so
many of these games.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
So another point. I'm going to reflect on this because
this week I don't have as strong as a conviction
on games. But I'm fascinated by why a number is
so about. Once a week there is a number I
don't understand. Last week it was Seattle in Miami. I
had a winning week. I didn't get the number. Skyler
Thompson against Mike McDonald's defense. That felt like a blowout
to me. It's a hard place to play for TUA.
(18:38):
Miami doesn't play well West or North usually they're just
a different team. So the Steelers minus one and a
half going to be four to zero, best defense arguably
in the league against a quarterback who is in a
t bow level forty nine percent completion percentage. I talked
to one executive this week. He said his tapes as
bad as a thrower as anybody he remembers. So I
(19:00):
look at it and I think that number doesn't make sense.
It should be Steelers minus two to two and a
half to three. I would take Pittsburgh, but the market's
confusing me. Explain the line.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
The market is confusing you because the Steelers are undefeated.
They opened as two point favorites, and the line has
moved in the direction of the Indianapolis Colts. And what's more,
what you can see in a lot of places, and
most operators offer those DraftKings does as well. You can
(19:31):
usually see the betting tickets and the betting money. Tickets
means that the squares are coming in on a side.
Money means that the professionals are coming in on a side.
The delta on this game is squares on the Steelers,
money on the professionals. The line usually moves, I mean
(19:51):
money on the Colts. Professionals on the Colts, the line
usually moves in the direction of the money. That tells
you that what the professionals are doing. The reason that's
happening in this game is because a Mike Tomlin is
historically great as a road underdog and historically bad as
a road favorite. They are also not believing in Justin
(20:17):
Fields right now. They love the Steelers defense. They know
if the Steelers get up that TJ. Watt is going
to slam the door closed, and that's when he's amazing.
But it's not like they're dominating teams. And if you
even look at that Chargers game, it's ten to ten
with a one legged Justin Herbert and it doesn't become
(20:37):
a Steelers win until Justin Herbert is out of the game.
Now they're going on the road in a game that
should probably be pick based on the talent levels, and
the strength of the Colts is not going to be
Anthony Richardson throwing or trying to evade TJ. Watt. It's
going to be what this offensive line, which is one
(20:58):
of the top rated run blocking and top rated pass
blocking lines in the league, can do to get Jonathan
Taylor free in the open field. So that's why the
Wise guys like this matchup. They're getting a home underdog
and an overvalued favorite.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Okay, let's get into my picks this line. Initially I
felt like Chicago was to play. It's now up to
plus three. It's a coach quarterback league. It wasn't. The
Rams won this game basically on special teams, but now
they have both their tackles back. The interior offensive line
has now played together for three games, so have these receivers.
(21:36):
So the Niners were missing elements. But I don't trust
eber Flus or Shane Waldron. I'm not giving up a
field goal to just a winning culture to one that's
trying to find their way. Bears are getting better. But
I'll play the number Rams plus three Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Yeah, at three, it's sort of in the middle. We
just talked about key numbers. If this game gets up
to three and a half, the Wise guys will play
the Rams. But it opened at one and the Wise
guys played the one. The one and a half, the two,
the two and a half, and now it's at three.
And their logic here is very much by low Sell high. Right,
(22:18):
you just talked about last week. With four minutes and
fifty seven seconds left in that game against the Niners,
the Rams had a five percent chance to win that game.
They needed every single thing to go right in that game,
and it did. The Niners could not advance the ball
deeper into the Rams side of the field. They missed
(22:38):
a fifty five yard field goal. The Rams scored in
three straight plays. Play the next series, the forty nine
Ers can't advance the ball, they punt, The Rams get
a great punt return, They get three penalties on one play,
including a twenty eight yard pass interference. They win the game.
The Bearers, meanwhile, couldn't have played worse. Caleb Williams was
(23:00):
confusing Colts defenders for Bears receivers. They were truly terrible.
They had no running game right twenty five seconds left
in the third quarter, they're still down seven to three.
When the Colts score a touchdown to go fourteen to three.
Five minutes left in that game, they're still down fourteen
to nine. They had a chance to keep winning that game.
(23:21):
Their pass rush is elite. Their defense is getting better
and better. You have to assume in this game that
the Bears are not as bad as they were, which
is what the wise guys think, and the Rams cannot
replicate that kind of luck no matter who's back on
the field. All that said, your statement about Sean McVay
(23:43):
and Matthew Stafford versus ebra Flus and Caleb Williams is
the one reason I've talked about this game all week.
It is the one reason why I have heard wise
guys saying I'm kind of hesitating. Those who are in
are in, but those who are hesitating orre hesitating because
of that exactly way, all.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
Right, I'm going to take the Packers minus two and
a half at home against the Vikings. The Vikings are
playing really well, but they've always been a little better
at home than on the road. Also, Green Bay is
winning without Jordan Love. The team is gaining confidence. Jordan
Love is a massive step up. I also think Green
Bay this year, for the first time in recent memory,
(24:23):
is kind of a ball hawking defense that's creating turnovers.
Sam Darnold historically will give you opportunities. So at minus
two and a half, Green Bay at home. I don't
think people quite understand the coaching job. Winning with Malik
Willis and looking good with Malik Willis, these aren't fluke Wins.
I would swallow the two and a half take Green
(24:43):
Bay sharper square.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
Yeah, this is a really tricky one because there is
just universal split on this one. Wow, it went to two,
it was at two, it got at the two and
a half, it got up the three. The wise guys
took the three. Bet it down to two and a half.
You'll see it bouncing around back and forth. Everybody has
an opinion on this game, and they are very strongly
(25:05):
on Minnesota, very strongly on Green Bay. I can't give
you a definitive answer. You could be right. Whyse guys
could be right? What's interesting in this game? I agree
with you. Matt Lafleur has been a genius in this scenario,
and you have to credit what he has done with
Malik Willis. You also have to credit Kevin O'Connell what
(25:25):
he has done with Sam Darnold to make him look
like an MVP worthy quarterback to get his team undefeated.
You have to credit Brian Flores, whose team is number
one defensively in Dboa and make Brock Perdy and CJ.
Shroud look mediocre to bad in two upsets for this
team against quarterbacks who are really good against the Blitz.
(25:46):
Then there's one stat that keeps sticking in my craw
teams that are short home favorites in divisional games against
the spread since twenty sixteen. So I am completely torn
on this game. I lean Minnesota. I'm hoping it gets
(26:08):
back to three.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
I like Seattle plus three and a half at the Lions.
Lions are missing their top center, Byron Murphy, the really,
really good defensive tackle number one pick for the Seahawks,
has elevated a defensive front. I think one of the
things about Seattle, I think they're one of the best
coach teams in the league right now. On the defensive side,
I don't quite feel like they finally figured out their
(26:33):
offense last week with Detroit. Thirty five carries Montgomery and Gibbs,
but you're not going to run like that on Seattle.
Seattle has been playmakers. Detroit's ohwas susceptible if you can
block Hudgson. Detroit's ohways susceptible. The big plays. Three and
a half is too big of a number. Gino complete
seventy four percent of his throws. This is a highly
competent offense. Efficient, competent, and occasionally explosive. I don't trust
(26:57):
the Lions here, Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Yeah, whyse guys still like the Seahawks here. If you
can get the hook, that's what they're planning. The line
has moved in their direction, even though it's Detroit at
home inside when they are historically great against the spread.
It went from four and a half down to four.
Now it's at three and a half. All the things
you said, there is some sort of hesitation because who
(27:22):
of the Seahawks really beaten? Right, Like, they beat up
Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle, they beat up Jacoby Brissett,
and by the way, the pass played tough in that game,
and if you look at the spread, it was a push.
They beat up bo Nicks in his first game, and
by the way, the Broncos came back at the end
of that game, and it was a push. So I'm
(27:44):
not fully bought in on the Seahawks. They have been
one of those teams professional betters have liked since before
the season began. The number play is the Seahawks. But
it's not like a slam dump for me.
Speaker 1 (28:01):
There are games sometimes I just like to watch Bills
getting two and a half the Ravens Bills in a
short week. I said this, the Ravens are a toe
away from just having one really bad loss and crushing
Dallas and beating the Chiefs. I like Baltimore. They had
(28:26):
to replace coordinator and some offensive linemen. I think that stuff,
especially on the O line, takes time. I think the
Ravens cover here sharper.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Square totally sharp wise. Guys are on the Ravens. That's
the play. It's scary, right, you're going to be betting
against Josh Allen, who is wicked right now and is
now the odds on favorite to win the MVP after
what he did to the Jags on Monday Night. I mean,
he was fierce right, his passes were pinpoint. He was
(28:58):
running through the of that Jaguars line. But I do
think that the value is on Lamar Jackson, who's twenty
one and seven, as a short favorite or an underdog.
It's a really good spot for the Ravens. Their defensive
backline against the rush, they're getting a little bit better.
(29:20):
I think the big fear is like, what are they
going to do when Josh Allen is scrambling and improvising.
They haven't proven to be able to really defend against that.
Right now, we saw the Cowboys come back. But Ravens
are definitely the right side.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
Okay, we do this every week. I have a game.
I just want your opinion. So the Commander's plus three
and a half at Arizona, Commander's probably the side. But
I will say this, I don't think and I've had
this sourced, I don't think Kyler Murray watches a ton
of film. I think he's just sort of an instinctive
player that's really good. I think he can be beaten
(30:01):
by very good defensive coordinators or secondaries that manipulate him.
But against bad secondaries that you can coach up to
certain levels, he can embarrass them. Commanders are not good
in the back end. They're really really bad on the
back end. Back end, they're coming off a short week.
(30:22):
Arizona is one of the It's a little tougher to
play there than people give it credit for. Niners and
Rams will tell you Seahawks, it can be a tough
place to play. Kyler plays very well at home. I
know it's telling me to take the Commanders short week.
Rookie quarterback tend to be high and low in spots.
I think i'd like Arizona, But I know it's not
the play. What are they telling you?
Speaker 2 (30:43):
It actually is the play. Your instincts are right. It's
totally the sharp play. You said something really smart off
the top, which was because of the preseason and people
not playing, players not playing as often as they have
what used to be sort of the week three get
right spot for a lot of professional betters. Like that's
(31:04):
when you've got two games to see what teams are like.
You've got a pretty good read on what their system
is and their style. More importantly, you've got to read
on the psychological makeup of betters, so you know what
the bookmakers are trying to lure the betters into doing.
That's happening now after Week three and into week four,
and you have some key by low sell high spots.
(31:27):
This week we talked about the Rams and the Bears,
we're also talking about the Cardinals and the Commanders. This
is exactly This line was five and a half before
the Commander's game against the Bengals, twelve hours later it
was three and a half. That is because of what
they did in prime time. You of course want to
(31:49):
fade a rookie quarterback who goes bananas in prime time
and then is on a short week going on the
road against a team that actually, while their defense is no,
not very good, has been playing a lot better than
people are giving them credit for. They are a tough
out and this is a really good chance for them
to get a win and to put themselves, you know,
(32:11):
to have some momentum behind what they're doing as a
relatively short home favorite. So yeah, the right side here
is Arizona.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
Okay, so I instincts for right Okay. Now there's a game,
often an ugly one that I have missed completely that
you think is a strong play. It's usually involving Carolina
or some dreg hole that I have to watch some
just egregiously gross. Oh it's just awful, it's terrible.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
It's so it's I don't even like to talk about them,
Like what asking you to do these things? I could
say to you, Yes, you want to play the Jags
against the Houston Texans.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
Okay, so tell the audience the line. It's Houston favored
by six and a half, right instead is.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
Six and a half. The reason I'm not going to
tell you is because I do think this line could
get to seven. The Jags were so bad on Monday Night,
And because the Texans are becoming such a public team,
and again education for people. Public teams are the ones
that are so popular they get an outsized number of bets,
and bookmakers know they can make them bigger favorites because
(33:14):
people are going to bet them no matter what right
You're talking about teams today, it's the Texans, It's always
the Cowboys, it's always the Steelers. It's going to be
the Eagles, it's going to be the Chiefs right now.
It's going to be the Bills too. So you know,
the number on the Texans is going to be a
little bit higher. I think it might get to seven
by Sunday. If it gets there, you're going to see
(33:36):
a lot of wise guys coming in. The truth is, Colin,
you hit the games that I'm most excited about. The
game that I'm most excited about is the Colts and
the Steelers that just to me feels like the right
play on the right team, the culture.
Speaker 1 (33:52):
At home, and they're getting a point and a half.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
Yes, I want to play the home underdog in that spot.
I actually I don't want to play the Panthers this
week at all. Like to me, it feels a little trappy.
People do want to play the Panthers, they want to
play Andy Dalton, they want to fade the Bengals. That
one feels a little bit scary to me. I'm looking
at my notes right now, but like we basically hit
(34:17):
them all like Arizona Chicago. The one I will say,
and it's terrible. Los Angeles Chargers. Okay, seven people line,
seven and a half point underdogs at home against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
So the Chargers getting with a limpy Justin Herbert and
no offensive tackles seven and a half against case.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
Maybe wimpy Justin Herbert or maybe Taylor Heineke. Like we
don't even know, right, it could, We don't know what
it's going to be. But matchup wise, what the Chargers
really want to do is run the ball. We've seen
this with Jim Harball, Like this is his right Jim Harball.
The reason he can come in and turn teams around
(35:04):
so quickly is because he speaks to the primal nature
of all football players, which is we're going to go
beat the crap out of the opponent. And that is
what he gets these guys to be good at, really
really quickly, and he's got a preternatural gift for identifying
offensive line talent. So obviously there's challenges here because Joe
(35:25):
All is out, Rashaun Slater is out. But I do
think this team is going to be able to run
the ball against the Chiefs defense that just hasn't been
good against the run. And look, we saw that against
the Falcons right when the Falcons had all of their
alignment on the field, they were going to win that
game going away by running Bjon Robinson and then they
had to completely change their game plan. So I do
(35:46):
think the Chiefs are going to the Chargers going to
lean into the Chiefs running game, treats running defense and
try to keep this game the clock running and keep
it low scoring. And you do get an advantage when
you were playing a very large division underdog. And Patrick
Mahons because he's always a big favorite, Yeah, has a
(36:06):
hard time covering the spread when he's a big favorite.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Chad Millman, all of our lines, draft kings, fingers crossed,
good to see anybody.
Speaker 2 (36:17):
Good to see you two. Always fingers crossed.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Always the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've
enjoyed the podcast, take a moment rate and review
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What time is it? Game Time? All right? Little instant
reaction on the Cowboys twenty fifteen Way and God that
(01:04):
was ugly. Dallas had eleven penalties. You know, I want
to start with the New York Giants because if I
said there's a team in the state of New York,
Brian dabols on the offensive side, Singletary's one of the
running backs, good left tackle, serviceable o line, one, great weapon,
(01:24):
really strong defensive front. No, that's not the Buffalo Bills.
That's the Giants. And if you gave Josh Allen to
the Giants, we would talk about them in the Super
Bowl bubble. The Giants have a lot of components that
Super Bowl teams have outside of quarterback. They need to
draft a running back. They need more juice in the backfield,
which the Bills did for years until they drafted James Cook.
(01:46):
They had Devin Singletary, who who doesn't didn't have a
lot of breakaway speed, but for years, you know, once
they got Stefon Diggs, it was good defensive front, capable coach,
dable in the room, Singletary at back, good left tackle,
serviceable ole line, excellent defensive front, one great weapon. So
I don't think the Giants are hopeless. They just Brian
(02:07):
Dabole is coaching his butt off. I mean, Daniel Jones.
Tonight they dominate time of possession. With no run game
and an average quarterback below average, they literally dominate time
of possession. Daniel Jones goes twenty nine to forty until
the very end, didn't have an interception, no touchdowns, He's
(02:29):
not throwing interceptions anymore. And they go against Dallas and
with no deep down the field thread, they're getting the
ball to neighbors. He had twelve catches. But the Giants,
with no run game and a mediocre quarterback dominate time
of possession against Dak Prescott, pretty good quarterback, and Mike McCarthy,
a super Bowl winning coach. I think Daboll is you
(02:52):
know he would never win like even honorable mentioned Coach
of the Year, but because their record won't be good.
But it's not like the Giants are hopeles. They're just
hopeless quarterback. And so that's where an owner interfered and
a general manager and a coach are doing the best
they can, but they're a little bit trapped because you
know they're gonna have dead cap money if they move off.
(03:13):
Daniel Jones, he is serviceable now. He could certainly on
the market. Somebody would come after him. Be serviceable. He
probably wouldn't be good elsewhere because he wouldn't have neighbors
and he wouldn't have Dable. But there's pieces of the
Giants that Super Bowl teams have really good defensively up front,
above average left tackle, great weapon Dable on the offensive
(03:35):
side if they had the quarterback right So people look
at the Giants and think they're hopeless. If it was
a great quarterback class. This is a six win team,
five win team, you'd get one of them. It's not
there's a couple of guys. Even the Georgia quarterback now
with Georgia's O line beat up, looks pretty average. Right
like against Kentucky couldn't move the ball. Quinn Ewers maybe
(03:58):
at number one can Ward? I like those two shouldar standers.
Worries me a little, you know, you know, I wish
he would be a little more chill. But he can play.
So you probably have three or four quarterbacks in the
first round. They probably have to draft one. If I
was a Giants, I would draft one because I don't
think they have a ton of needs. You can get
running backs. I was just talking to a general manager
(04:19):
last night. History tells you, analytics tell you the running
backs You can get your running backs third, fourth, fifth,
sixth rounds. Don't draft them in the first two rounds.
Unless you get like a Saquan or an Adrian Peterson
or a Ze you know you don't need to. So
it's you. Giants will draft a quarterback. They considered it
this year, and you know if the kids, you know,
(04:40):
the offensive line now is more than capable. But Brian
Dables excellent. He's doing a great job to dominate time
of possession and the until the end. Again, Daniel Jones
didn't have an interception. More than capable. I mean the
guy threw for you know, two hundred and some seventy five,
two hundred eighty yards with really no deep balls and
no run game. They just got to get the quarterback right.
(05:02):
And again, Quinn Ewers is an NFL quarterback. Shanor Sanders
is back from Georgia, and cam Ward, so you're gonna
have four first round quarterbacks. I think Riley Leonard late
first second. He's a little wild, you know, great athlete,
big size, not great in the accuracy. Can you teach
him to do that? You know NFL people probably could.
(05:22):
Josh Allen was wild. People still like Anthony Richardson and
he is forty nine completion percentage. So I know you
think that the Giants. I know Jmack probably thinks all
is lost with the Giants. They just got to get
the quarterback, right, stable, left tackle, neighbors, good defensive front.
They got pieces. They got pieces the Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile,
(05:47):
it was eleven penalties. Jesus, if you took Ceedee Lamb
out of this team, there is nothing there. I mean,
there's just and their fullback is like a weapon, you know.
I like their field goal kicker and missed one at
the end, damn it. But you know, neither team really
(06:07):
had a run game tonight. I just think, you know, again,
let's talk about this. Oh, if the New York Giants
hit on a quarterback next year, Let's say the Patriots
aren't going to draft the quarterback because they have Drake May.
Carolina probably would, right Tennessee, if they're bad, probably would.
(06:27):
Although I think they figure out a way to win
four or five six games. But a lot of the
bad teams have their quarterbacks, right, they're gonna give them
a shot. So the Giants win five games, you know
they're not going to be Dallas five or six wins.
They'll probably have the fifth, sixth pick, and a lot
of the bad teams just got their quarterback, so they're
gonna get one of these quarterbacks. I like their future.
(06:48):
I like Dable more than Mike McCarthy. I like the
Giants defensive line more than Dallas. I like their left
tackle more than Dallas. They both have good weapons. Owner,
I'll take the Giants. I guess the Giants just need
a quarterback and pick up a running back in the
fourth or fifth round. They've got a lot of components.
Dallas is kind of trapped. They're paying CD of fortune.
(07:10):
They'll pay Micah, who I like. I don't love a fortune.
They're paying dack of fortune. Owner vain more about, you know,
getting attention than and being remarkably interesting and talked about
more than I think really winning titles. Despite what he says,
(07:30):
their offensive line is just okay, no juice in the backfield,
average it tight end, very ced Lamb and he's great,
but very ced Lamb centric. I don't see this great future.
And they're stuck with Dak, who's good B Plus, it's
like having Kirk Cousins in his prime. It's good. Be plush.
We wouldn't get to the playoffs. But if the Giants
next year, let's say they have the fourth pick in
(07:52):
the draft, and you know, Travis Hunter from Colorado goes
number one, and let's say somebody likes cam Ward he
goes to and the Giants move up a spot, give
up some draft picks, and they get quinn Ewrs and
he's good. And Brian Dable is really good with quarterbacks.
He's made Daniel Jones now that he has one weapon
(08:12):
and a more serviceable old line capable, not special capable.
So it's like, who would have the better future if
you got quinn Ewers or back and you established pretty quickly.
Guy can play Little Bumpy for sure, guy can play
whose future? Do you like? Dabors Dable weapons? You can
get a running back every year, just draft them. They're
(08:33):
out there. I don't know's I know Dallas dominates this series,
and I know everybody thinks, you know, oh Dallas, Dax.
You know, the star in the hel butt is very influential.
But you know you're stuck with McCarthy at least for
the rest of this year. Eleven penalties, so he's always
been penalty plagued. I mean tonight, Mike has heard DeMarcus
(08:55):
Lawrence banged up. I don't know, maybe I'm being just
overly negative. Laker fans feel the same way, but this
I said this today on FS one. You know, family
owned and operated just felt better twenty years ago. I
think now as you're can have a deli like that,
But in tech I don't want a family owned and
operated tech giant.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
You know.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
Maybe that's what Larry Elison has with Oracle, maybe that's it.
But by and large, I like the staying kronkey of
the world. I like, you know, the Allen family in Seattle,
York family in San Francisco. I big money, something beyond
(09:39):
just the team. I don't think Dallas's future is bright.
I really don't. And it's not a shot at Dak.
I mean, God, if you put Daniel Jones on the
Cowboys and Dak on the Giants, Giant or playoff team,
absolutely Cowboys are bad, bad. I mean, you wouldn't even
have to get a great one quarterback With Dable and
(10:01):
the Giants defensive front neighbors and they're left tackle, you
wouldn't need a great quarterback. You'd need Dak. He'd be
a playoff team every year. Hell Eli Manning wasn't a
great regular season quarterback, but he was great, always arrived, Ohway,
was healthy, always playing two minute drill, and good in
the playoffs. Think about this, dak Is twenty four and
four against Washington and the New York Giants. That's not
(10:24):
going to continue. Davile's getting his quarterback next year. Washington
has there. It was like Big Ben for years eight
on Cincinnati and Cleveland. Then Burrow showed up, Baker showed
up and didn't feel the same. And so when you
get that eight nine year window with a big franchise
a Dallas or at Pittsburgh and you have the lesser
(10:44):
halves or the have nots in your division and you're
just dominating you for late nine years, you got to
get multiple playoff wins. You got to show up in
the conference championship. You got to show up in a
super Bowl. Pittsburgh did it. You know, Pittsburgh, Tomlin, they
get to a couple of Super Bowls. Okay, they be
in Arizona, they beat the Seattle, they got theirs. It
didn't end like you'd like in Pittsburgh, but they got theirs.
(11:06):
When Cincinnati and Cleveland were you know, not great, didn't
have star quarterbacks. Well, Washington and New York since Eli
left have been a mess. What's Dallas haveing a show
for it? Twenty four to four? It's just two and
Oho every year not in the show for it. They
beat the New York Giants last year by seventy two
combined points. The Cowboys did it tonight. They needed a
(11:28):
guy who can kick long field goals, so I and
and Dables getting his guy in this draft. They're going
to have a top six to seventh pick, and there's
four quarterbacks and Travis Hunter's going to be one of
the top guys taken. Will Johnson that corner for Michigan's
going to be one of the top guys taken. So
there's a tackle of Texas probably going to be one
of those guys taken. There's a defensive tackle for Kentucky's
(11:50):
probably going to be one of those guys taken. Giants
are getting a quarterback, maybe the second choice for Dable.
But they're getting somebody. So is that too negative? I
don't know. I you know, Dak has over forty percent
of his wins on the Giants and Washington. But now
(12:11):
that Jadeen Daniels is cooking, and he looks like he
can't really play now that Jade Daniels is cooking, and
the Eagles role is gonna have players With Harry Roseman,
I think, I think the days of getting fat on
Washington and the Giants are over, and the Giants are
gonna get into our quarterback next year. And Dable's really
good with quarterbacks. This was not Davie's quarterback. He wouldn't
(12:32):
have drafted him. He's not his guy. They didn't want
to give him the extension. Don't don't blame Dabel for this.
That's that's upstairs, that's Mara. He'll get the quarterback he
wants next year. Dabel and those quarterbacks, he'll have the influence,
he'll have the call with Joe Shane the GM they'll
get somebody. Cam Ward can play in the NFL. Quin
yours can play. Schador can play a little bit too
much personality for me, but he can play and back
(12:53):
at Georgia. So that's that's four. That's four guys, and
somebody will emerge over the next six to seven weeks.
And I know it. It's easy to beat up on
teams like the New York Giants right now. But I
see a lot of good pieces with Dallas. I see
a lot of big contracts and one great player in
CD lab. That's all I see. Blazing five tomorrow on
(13:17):
FS one. Let's listen to Chad Millman, Sharper Square, td
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Speaker 3 (14:10):
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Speaker 1 (14:52):
All Right Time for an utter edition of Sharper Square
Chadmilman CCO Action Network. All of our odds provided by DraftKings.
I don't have referendums or declarations very often, but officially
I will never bet Trevor Lawrence again for the rest
of my adult life, and I'm going to stick with
that one.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
The number of times I have made those kinds of
declarations and then the very next week gone on to
bet the exact team or player I said I would
never bet again, including by the way, last week when
I bet the Carolina Panthers because Andy Dollin was the
quarterback after I had sworn off the Carolina Panthers. So
(15:33):
be careful what you say, because you might have to
walk it back.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
All right, this is an interesting week, so I usually
feel first couple of weeks I'm kind of feeling it out.
I never used to feel that way, but because nobody
plays anybody in preseason, fewer padded practices, I kind of
feel like the Jets in Week one offensively or awful.
Then all of a sudden you watch them and you're like, wow,
they lead the NFL in third down percentage. Like stuff
(15:58):
happens fast because either Sean McVay, fewer padded practices, I'm
not going to play any starters, but I do feel
like I have. I kind of feel like I have.
I got my feet beneath me on the league. But
this is an instructive moment, and I'll tell you I
want to start with this because I part of why
I like doing Sharper Square. I liked teaching myself stuff
(16:20):
and the audience. So I really liked the Jets early
in the week at minus six and a half. I
think it's a bad spot for a rookie quarterback traveling
going back, I get a veteran extra rest. This is
a bad spot for bow Nicks. I thought Tampa I
picked them in that week it was a good spot.
And with rookie quarterbacks it's a lot of where you
land and how the schedule looks. Same with rookie coaches.
(16:42):
New England on a Thursday night, bad spot off an
overtime game. So I liked the Jets a lot. And
now it's seven and a half and I don't bet teams.
I bet numbers in this league. So now I like
Denver and just because of a point swing. So just
as a point of instruction, how do the wise guys
(17:02):
view that game?
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Well, they're going to bet Denver at seven and a half,
and that's sort of what they've been waiting for. What
you're doing, naturally, because you've been watching football and thinking
about this for a long time, is looking at the
number seven. It's a key number, right, and the key
numbers mean that's the number that's the delta of between
(17:28):
the two scores that a lot of games land on
in the NFL seven four three two. With the extra
point changes the past couple of years, those are now
the key numbers, and those are the ones that wise
guys want to get on the right side of. So
you liked New York at six and a half because
(17:48):
it was on the right side of that key number
of seven. You like Denver on the seven and a
half because now you're on the right side of seven
for Denver. So that is the delta, by the and
that is the very very thin line between success and failure.
We're talking about half a point in your logic, but
(18:11):
that is the difference between winning and losing in so
many of these games.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
So another point. I'm going to reflect on this because
this week I don't have as strong as a conviction
on games. But I'm fascinated by why a number is
so about. Once a week there is a number I
don't understand. Last week it was Seattle in Miami. I
had a winning week. I didn't get the number. Skyler
Thompson against Mike McDonald's defense. That felt like a blowout
to me. It's a hard place to play for TUA.
(18:38):
Miami doesn't play well West or North usually they're just
a different team. So the Steelers minus one and a
half going to be four to zero, best defense arguably
in the league against a quarterback who is in a
t bow level forty nine percent completion percentage. I talked
to one executive this week. He said his tapes as
bad as a thrower as anybody he remembers. So I
(19:00):
look at it and I think that number doesn't make sense.
It should be Steelers minus two to two and a
half to three. I would take Pittsburgh, but the market's
confusing me. Explain the line.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
The market is confusing you because the Steelers are undefeated.
They opened as two point favorites, and the line has
moved in the direction of the Indianapolis Colts. And what's more,
what you can see in a lot of places, and
most operators offer those DraftKings does as well. You can
(19:31):
usually see the betting tickets and the betting money. Tickets
means that the squares are coming in on a side.
Money means that the professionals are coming in on a side.
The delta on this game is squares on the Steelers,
money on the professionals. The line usually moves, I mean
(19:51):
money on the Colts. Professionals on the Colts, the line
usually moves in the direction of the money. That tells
you that what the professionals are doing. The reason that's
happening in this game is because a Mike Tomlin is
historically great as a road underdog and historically bad as
a road favorite. They are also not believing in Justin
(20:17):
Fields right now. They love the Steelers defense. They know
if the Steelers get up that TJ. Watt is going
to slam the door closed, and that's when he's amazing.
But it's not like they're dominating teams. And if you
even look at that Chargers game, it's ten to ten
with a one legged Justin Herbert and it doesn't become
(20:37):
a Steelers win until Justin Herbert is out of the game.
Now they're going on the road in a game that
should probably be pick based on the talent levels, and
the strength of the Colts is not going to be
Anthony Richardson throwing or trying to evade TJ. Watt. It's
going to be what this offensive line, which is one
(20:58):
of the top rated run blocking and top rated pass
blocking lines in the league, can do to get Jonathan
Taylor free in the open field. So that's why the
Wise guys like this matchup. They're getting a home underdog
and an overvalued favorite.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Okay, let's get into my picks this line. Initially I
felt like Chicago was to play. It's now up to
plus three. It's a coach quarterback league. It wasn't. The
Rams won this game basically on special teams, but now
they have both their tackles back. The interior offensive line
has now played together for three games, so have these receivers.
(21:36):
So the Niners were missing elements. But I don't trust
eber Flus or Shane Waldron. I'm not giving up a
field goal to just a winning culture to one that's
trying to find their way. Bears are getting better. But
I'll play the number Rams plus three Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Yeah, at three, it's sort of in the middle. We
just talked about key numbers. If this game gets up
to three and a half, the Wise guys will play
the Rams. But it opened at one and the Wise
guys played the one. The one and a half, the two,
the two and a half, and now it's at three.
And their logic here is very much by low Sell high. Right,
(22:18):
you just talked about last week. With four minutes and
fifty seven seconds left in that game against the Niners,
the Rams had a five percent chance to win that game.
They needed every single thing to go right in that game,
and it did. The Niners could not advance the ball
deeper into the Rams side of the field. They missed
(22:38):
a fifty five yard field goal. The Rams scored in
three straight plays. Play the next series, the forty nine
Ers can't advance the ball, they punt, The Rams get
a great punt return, They get three penalties on one play,
including a twenty eight yard pass interference. They win the game.
The Bearers, meanwhile, couldn't have played worse. Caleb Williams was
(23:00):
confusing Colts defenders for Bears receivers. They were truly terrible.
They had no running game right twenty five seconds left
in the third quarter, they're still down seven to three.
When the Colts score a touchdown to go fourteen to three.
Five minutes left in that game, they're still down fourteen
to nine. They had a chance to keep winning that game.
(23:21):
Their pass rush is elite. Their defense is getting better
and better. You have to assume in this game that
the Bears are not as bad as they were, which
is what the wise guys think, and the Rams cannot
replicate that kind of luck no matter who's back on
the field. All that said, your statement about Sean McVay
(23:43):
and Matthew Stafford versus ebra Flus and Caleb Williams is
the one reason I've talked about this game all week.
It is the one reason why I have heard wise
guys saying I'm kind of hesitating. Those who are in
are in, but those who are hesitating orre hesitating because
of that exactly way, all.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
Right, I'm going to take the Packers minus two and
a half at home against the Vikings. The Vikings are
playing really well, but they've always been a little better
at home than on the road. Also, Green Bay is
winning without Jordan Love. The team is gaining confidence. Jordan
Love is a massive step up. I also think Green
Bay this year, for the first time in recent memory,
(24:23):
is kind of a ball hawking defense that's creating turnovers.
Sam Darnold historically will give you opportunities. So at minus
two and a half, Green Bay at home. I don't
think people quite understand the coaching job. Winning with Malik
Willis and looking good with Malik Willis, these aren't fluke Wins.
I would swallow the two and a half take Green
(24:43):
Bay sharper square.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
Yeah, this is a really tricky one because there is
just universal split on this one. Wow, it went to two,
it was at two, it got at the two and
a half, it got up the three. The wise guys
took the three. Bet it down to two and a half.
You'll see it bouncing around back and forth. Everybody has
an opinion on this game, and they are very strongly
(25:05):
on Minnesota, very strongly on Green Bay. I can't give
you a definitive answer. You could be right. Whyse guys
could be right? What's interesting in this game? I agree
with you. Matt Lafleur has been a genius in this scenario,
and you have to credit what he has done with
Malik Willis. You also have to credit Kevin O'Connell what
(25:25):
he has done with Sam Darnold to make him look
like an MVP worthy quarterback to get his team undefeated.
You have to credit Brian Flores, whose team is number
one defensively in Dboa and make Brock Perdy and CJ.
Shroud look mediocre to bad in two upsets for this
team against quarterbacks who are really good against the Blitz.
(25:46):
Then there's one stat that keeps sticking in my craw
teams that are short home favorites in divisional games against
the spread since twenty sixteen. So I am completely torn
on this game. I lean Minnesota. I'm hoping it gets
(26:08):
back to three.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
I like Seattle plus three and a half at the Lions.
Lions are missing their top center, Byron Murphy, the really,
really good defensive tackle number one pick for the Seahawks,
has elevated a defensive front. I think one of the
things about Seattle, I think they're one of the best
coach teams in the league right now. On the defensive side,
I don't quite feel like they finally figured out their
(26:33):
offense last week with Detroit. Thirty five carries Montgomery and Gibbs,
but you're not going to run like that on Seattle.
Seattle has been playmakers. Detroit's ohwas susceptible if you can
block Hudgson. Detroit's ohways susceptible. The big plays. Three and
a half is too big of a number. Gino complete
seventy four percent of his throws. This is a highly
competent offense. Efficient, competent, and occasionally explosive. I don't trust
(26:57):
the Lions here, Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Yeah, whyse guys still like the Seahawks here. If you
can get the hook, that's what they're planning. The line
has moved in their direction, even though it's Detroit at
home inside when they are historically great against the spread.
It went from four and a half down to four.
Now it's at three and a half. All the things
you said, there is some sort of hesitation because who
(27:22):
of the Seahawks really beaten? Right, Like, they beat up
Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle, they beat up Jacoby Brissett,
and by the way, the pass played tough in that game,
and if you look at the spread, it was a push.
They beat up bo Nicks in his first game, and
by the way, the Broncos came back at the end
of that game, and it was a push. So I'm
(27:44):
not fully bought in on the Seahawks. They have been
one of those teams professional betters have liked since before
the season began. The number play is the Seahawks. But
it's not like a slam dump for me.
Speaker 1 (28:01):
There are games sometimes I just like to watch Bills
getting two and a half the Ravens Bills in a
short week. I said this, the Ravens are a toe
away from just having one really bad loss and crushing
Dallas and beating the Chiefs. I like Baltimore. They had
(28:26):
to replace coordinator and some offensive linemen. I think that stuff,
especially on the O line, takes time. I think the
Ravens cover here sharper.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Square totally sharp wise. Guys are on the Ravens. That's
the play. It's scary, right, you're going to be betting
against Josh Allen, who is wicked right now and is
now the odds on favorite to win the MVP after
what he did to the Jags on Monday Night. I mean,
he was fierce right, his passes were pinpoint. He was
(28:58):
running through the of that Jaguars line. But I do
think that the value is on Lamar Jackson, who's twenty
one and seven, as a short favorite or an underdog.
It's a really good spot for the Ravens. Their defensive
backline against the rush, they're getting a little bit better.
(29:20):
I think the big fear is like, what are they
going to do when Josh Allen is scrambling and improvising.
They haven't proven to be able to really defend against that.
Right now, we saw the Cowboys come back. But Ravens
are definitely the right side.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
Okay, we do this every week. I have a game.
I just want your opinion. So the Commander's plus three
and a half at Arizona, Commander's probably the side. But
I will say this, I don't think and I've had
this sourced, I don't think Kyler Murray watches a ton
of film. I think he's just sort of an instinctive
player that's really good. I think he can be beaten
(30:01):
by very good defensive coordinators or secondaries that manipulate him.
But against bad secondaries that you can coach up to
certain levels, he can embarrass them. Commanders are not good
in the back end. They're really really bad on the
back end. Back end, they're coming off a short week.
(30:22):
Arizona is one of the It's a little tougher to
play there than people give it credit for. Niners and
Rams will tell you Seahawks, it can be a tough
place to play. Kyler plays very well at home. I
know it's telling me to take the Commanders short week.
Rookie quarterback tend to be high and low in spots.
I think i'd like Arizona, But I know it's not
the play. What are they telling you?
Speaker 2 (30:43):
It actually is the play. Your instincts are right. It's
totally the sharp play. You said something really smart off
the top, which was because of the preseason and people
not playing, players not playing as often as they have
what used to be sort of the week three get
right spot for a lot of professional betters. Like that's
(31:04):
when you've got two games to see what teams are like.
You've got a pretty good read on what their system
is and their style. More importantly, you've got to read
on the psychological makeup of betters, so you know what
the bookmakers are trying to lure the betters into doing.
That's happening now after Week three and into week four,
and you have some key by low sell high spots.
(31:27):
This week we talked about the Rams and the Bears,
we're also talking about the Cardinals and the Commanders. This
is exactly This line was five and a half before
the Commander's game against the Bengals, twelve hours later it
was three and a half. That is because of what
they did in prime time. You of course want to
(31:49):
fade a rookie quarterback who goes bananas in prime time
and then is on a short week going on the
road against a team that actually, while their defense is no,
not very good, has been playing a lot better than
people are giving them credit for. They are a tough
out and this is a really good chance for them
to get a win and to put themselves, you know,
(32:11):
to have some momentum behind what they're doing as a
relatively short home favorite. So yeah, the right side here
is Arizona.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
Okay, so I instincts for right Okay. Now there's a game,
often an ugly one that I have missed completely that
you think is a strong play. It's usually involving Carolina
or some dreg hole that I have to watch some
just egregiously gross. Oh it's just awful, it's terrible.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
It's so it's I don't even like to talk about them,
Like what asking you to do these things? I could
say to you, Yes, you want to play the Jags
against the Houston Texans.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
Okay, so tell the audience the line. It's Houston favored
by six and a half, right instead is.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
Six and a half. The reason I'm not going to
tell you is because I do think this line could
get to seven. The Jags were so bad on Monday Night,
And because the Texans are becoming such a public team,
and again education for people. Public teams are the ones
that are so popular they get an outsized number of bets,
and bookmakers know they can make them bigger favorites because
(33:14):
people are going to bet them no matter what right
You're talking about teams today, it's the Texans, It's always
the Cowboys, it's always the Steelers. It's going to be
the Eagles, it's going to be the Chiefs right now.
It's going to be the Bills too. So you know,
the number on the Texans is going to be a
little bit higher. I think it might get to seven
by Sunday. If it gets there, you're going to see
(33:36):
a lot of wise guys coming in. The truth is, Colin,
you hit the games that I'm most excited about. The
game that I'm most excited about is the Colts and
the Steelers that just to me feels like the right
play on the right team, the culture.
Speaker 1 (33:52):
At home, and they're getting a point and a half.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
Yes, I want to play the home underdog in that spot.
I actually I don't want to play the Panthers this
week at all. Like to me, it feels a little trappy.
People do want to play the Panthers, they want to
play Andy Dalton, they want to fade the Bengals. That
one feels a little bit scary to me. I'm looking
at my notes right now, but like we basically hit
(34:17):
them all like Arizona Chicago. The one I will say,
and it's terrible. Los Angeles Chargers. Okay, seven people line,
seven and a half point underdogs at home against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
So the Chargers getting with a limpy Justin Herbert and
no offensive tackles seven and a half against case.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
Maybe wimpy Justin Herbert or maybe Taylor Heineke. Like we
don't even know, right, it could, We don't know what
it's going to be. But matchup wise, what the Chargers
really want to do is run the ball. We've seen
this with Jim Harball, Like this is his right Jim Harball.
The reason he can come in and turn teams around
(35:04):
so quickly is because he speaks to the primal nature
of all football players, which is we're going to go
beat the crap out of the opponent. And that is
what he gets these guys to be good at, really
really quickly, and he's got a preternatural gift for identifying
offensive line talent. So obviously there's challenges here because Joe
(35:25):
All is out, Rashaun Slater is out. But I do
think this team is going to be able to run
the ball against the Chiefs defense that just hasn't been
good against the run. And look, we saw that against
the Falcons right when the Falcons had all of their
alignment on the field, they were going to win that
game going away by running Bjon Robinson and then they
had to completely change their game plan. So I do
(35:46):
think the Chiefs are going to the Chargers going to
lean into the Chiefs running game, treats running defense and
try to keep this game the clock running and keep
it low scoring. And you do get an advantage when
you were playing a very large division underdog. And Patrick
Mahons because he's always a big favorite, Yeah, has a
(36:06):
hard time covering the spread when he's a big favorite.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
Chad Millman, all of our lines, draft kings, fingers crossed,
good to see anybody.
Speaker 2 (36:17):
Good to see you two. Always fingers crossed.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Always the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've
enjoyed the podcast, take a moment rate and review
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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