FantasyPros - 12 RISKY Fantasy Football Players You Should Think Twice About Before Drafting in 2025 (Ep. 1601) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today if I Derek Brown and by
Pat fitzbars Fellas. We are talking some risky players to
think twice about drafting from twenty to twenty five. Quick
reminder for everybody who's always All of our twenty twenty
five consensus rankings and tiers can be found a fantasypros
dot com slash rankings. That's where you can find ECR

(00:22):
or expert consensus rankings from around the league. You can also,
of course navigate to our staff rankings. You can see
where fits has these guy ranked. You can see where
Debra has these guys ranked, and get a little more
detail on that if you so choose. As we get
closer and closer to draft season, basically like a month
and a half away at this point, which is both
terrifying and exciting, let's go ahead and die right in.

Speaker 2 (00:44):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
We've got early round warnings, we've got kind of come
through some early round guys than mid round. Then maybe
look at some other guys that we are interested in drafting.
And these could necessarily be guys that we are still
willing to draft, but there are risks. We want to
think about it. Think twice I should say about whether
or not we're going to click draft on draft day.
Fits Let's start with you in the early round warnings.

(01:06):
Who do you have here? That's risky?

Speaker 2 (01:08):
Oh man?

Speaker 3 (01:08):
People are going to be mad at me for this one.
And I think this is someone people generally regard as
one of the least risky players. But I think there's
kind of a risk to taking Amen Ross Saint Brown.
He has become this sacred cow, and for good reason.
Like in PPR fantasy scoring, Amen Ross Saint Brown has
been wide receiver seven, wide receiver three, and wide receiver
three the last three years. But here's the thing. Am

(01:31):
and ROV's fantasy scoring was slightly down last year. He
went from twenty point seven PPR Fantasy points per game
in twenty twenty three to eighteen point six last year. Now,
that's still high level production, no doubt, but for Amen
Ross Saint Brown to get within two fantasy points per
game of where he was in twenty twenty three, he
needed to have a career high twelve touchdowns and catch

(01:53):
in outrageous eighty one point six percent of his targets.
His catch rate had been seventy two point six the
previous two seasons, so it was a spike of nine
percentage points. And it's because his targets fell off. Like
Aminra averaged ten point three targets per game in twenty
twenty three, only eight point three last year. I think
the emergence of Jamison Williams was a big reason for that,

(02:14):
and Jamo was here to stay. So it's hard to
see Amanrock getting back to ten targets a game. It's
also kind of hard to see him scoring another twelve touchdowns.
The Detroit Lions scored a league high seventy touchdowns last season.
No other team had more than sixty five, and without
Ben Johnson running the offense, are the Lions sniffing seventy
touchdowns again?

Speaker 2 (02:33):
No way. So it's not that I think Amanro Saint Brown.

Speaker 3 (02:37):
Is going to be a bust. Really, I think he's
absolutely a first round pick. I just think he should
go at the end of the first round rather than
in the middle.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
Which is where he usually goes.

Speaker 3 (02:46):
And not only am I taking Jamar Chase, Cede Lamb,
Justin Jefferson over Amanrah, mostly taking Brian Thomas Pukinaku and
Malik neighbors over Amanah.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
Dee, Bro, you have long been a huge fan of Amenra.
You think about when you hear Fits kind of laying
in this case, why he's actually a risk this year.

Speaker 4 (03:03):
I don't really disagree with him, man. I do think
the touchdowns are a little bit more replicable in the
sense that he was second in the NFL in red
zone target So I mean, maybe that goes down and
they're making less trips to the red zone because they're
less efficient. The other thing about this is, and I
know the departure of Aaron Glenn, but what if this
defense is healthier in twenty twenty five, What if they're

(03:25):
in less neutral game scripts, what they're actually leading I mean,
well behind a little bit more like what the defense
is actually better, because dude, they got decimated last year.
I mean their entire defensive line got hurt, cornerbacks were
in and out. If their defense is better, maybe they're
in positive game scripts more running. So I do understand
like where Fits is coming from. And I mean I'm

(03:45):
kind of with FITZI like, FITZI, where do you have
am Andron ranked? Because I've got a bit wide receiver
eight and people could be surprised by that. Like same,
I have Drake London and Nico Collins ahead of him.

Speaker 2 (03:55):
Yeah I don't.

Speaker 3 (03:56):
I don't have those two ahead of him, but like
I can standing the case for both guys.

Speaker 4 (04:02):
So but to your point, I also have Puke and
Brian Thomas Junior ahead of him too, So I'm I'm
absolutely with you on this one.

Speaker 1 (04:09):
I'm with you guys too. Deever, to what degree are
you discounting lines players in general because of the loss
of Ben Johnson? Like how much is that weighing on
your decision making when when laying out these rankings.

Speaker 4 (04:21):
Honestly, not a ton and only because I subscribe to that.
I think that people don't give Dan Campbell enough credit that,
like he is involved in those offensive meetings, he is
actually an offensive minded head coach if you go back
to it. Just because he's more of the raw ra
ra rub some dirt on it type, everybody's like, oh,
he must be a defensive minded guy. No, like you

(04:43):
played tight end, he was an offensive minded guy coming
up through the ranks. So I'm not as worried about
the Ben Johnson departure as everybody else is. I do
think all these guys are pricey because that's kind of
the price tag that comes with being one of the
best offenses, if not arguably the best offense in the NFL.
So those price tags are gonna come with these guys.

(05:04):
But I'm kind of at consensus are below on a
lot of them only because I see an easier path
and the reason that, like how picking drakeln and Nico Collins,
Brian Thomas Junior, those guys have an easier and more
likely path to being wide receiver one overall in the
range of outcomes than somebody like Amorra, which even when
everything went great for him over the last two years,

(05:25):
you're talking about a guy that topped out, and I'm
saying topped out because he was a freaking top five
wide receiver. He was wide receiver four in each of
the last two years and Fantasy points per game, So like,
those are really freaking good seasons. It's awesome. But does
he have a path, like a conceivable path to wide
receiver one overall? Probably not if all these guys stay healthy.

Speaker 1 (05:46):
Yeah, Nico is somebody I already had ahead of amen Ra,
and that the more you're talking about it, I think
I might have Drake London ahead of him too when
all of a sudden done. But like to your point,
Nico is a guy you can paint the picture for
if it goes well, he could be. Really it's harder
to paint that picture with Saint Brown. Let's go to
a guy who just was RB one and now we're

(06:07):
saying is risky. We've actually talked about Saquon Barkley a
couple of times on recent shows Debro. It's interesting to
see a name like this who just won people leagues
last year and yet some of the volume stuff, which
is what I assume you're gonna say, you can easily
paint the picture for. Why maybe he should be at
least some warning flags up as well? Saquon Barkley, why
is he risky? For you?

Speaker 4 (06:26):
To me, it's not one or two things. It's the
sum of all of the parts. And I'm just gonna
lay this out, guys, And this comes down to pick
your flavor of regression, because there's so many different parts
of the Philadelphia Eagles offense to where we could point
to and say, okay, well this could regress, this could regress,
And I'll just lay out the case here, guys. One
that have the fewest passing attempts in the NFL. They

(06:48):
are going to throw more this year. The question is
not if it's how much. Second of all, they had
the most second most positive gamescript plays last year. And
I'm not telling you the defense is gonna be bottom
fed and that's gonna make them be so pass heavy.
But we do see defenses year in and year out
they ebb and flow. So are the Eagles going to

(07:09):
take a step back in that? And the reason I
bring up the positive game script stuff is because in
the second half of NFL games last year, this team
was leading the freaking NFL in second half rushing rate
with sixty point four percent. The next closest team was
Baltimore at fifty three percent. That is a wide chasm. Okay,
so we got those two different points, three different points. Also, yes, worm,

(07:33):
we can talk about the volume since twenty ten. Saquon
Barkley and this is including regular season in playoffs, just
finished with the second most touches in a season, behind
only DeMarco Murray. He had four hundred and eighty two
combined touches. Murray in that season at four ninety seven. Okay,
we know the history of high volume seasons at the

(07:55):
running back and how that usually turns out. It's usually efficiency, dip, underperforms,
or injury. I don't want to be forecasting injuries, but
that's usually how it works out. I'll point back to
CMC last year, and everybody hated that call when we
made it too. And again, the last thing I'm going
to say here is you are in a better spot
year over a year. If you expect a new RB

(08:17):
one to step forward, then asking the same thing to
happen that happened in the previous season, the likelihood of
that happening is really really slim. At running back and
wide receiver in fantasy. If you go back to twenty thirteen,
Todd Gurley was the only running back to replicate RB
one in fantasy points per game seasons in back to

(08:37):
back years in twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen. So since
twenty thirteen, he's the only running back. And if you
got that's only because I had that's all I could
pull the data as far back. If you go back
even farther, the trend still continues to repeat itself. I
think it's only Priest Holmes that did it two years
in a row. So again, no RB in that sample
size since twenty nineteen has repeated, as is the RB

(09:00):
one in Fantasy points per game. So I'm just saying,
with pick your spot of progression, one of these are
multiple spots of here is going to hit, and Saquan's
not going to be the RB one this year.

Speaker 1 (09:12):
So before I throw it at fits because I obviously
want to get his opinion as well, Debro, when you
lay out all of that at the end of the day,
where does that leave Saquon ranked for you both? I'm
curious in terms of amongst the running backs and in
terms of like where in the first round are you
considering drafting him.

Speaker 4 (09:29):
I've got him at RB four, I have b Jean Robinson,
Jamiir Gibbs, and actually Ashton Genty above him, and people
the biggest problem people have so far that I've heard
from the YouTube comments and stuff is Genty. Okay, I
just want Saquon Barkley at his rookie season and not
Saquon Barkley getting older. I've rather much rather than that.
And for overall, I've got Saquon. I mean, he's my

(09:50):
ninth overall player. I've got a ton of wide receivers
like I've got Jefferson Lamb, actually have Brian Thomas Junior
and Pukinnakua ahead of Jamiir Gibbs, Ashton gent T and
Saquon at the tail of the first round. So people
follow my ranks, they're not gonna get Saquon in mini drafts.

Speaker 1 (10:06):
If any amongst the running back Steve bro Christian McCaffrey
is one that stands out. Who's behind him? Would you
consider CMC ahead of Saquon If we're saying, like, you know,
things change every year. If CMC is now the healthy
one and Saquon coming off this workload, like is there
a case be made for that? Or maybe like a
Derek Henry who was almost as good as Saquon last
year and has been a guy who has been kind
of built different, like in Tennessee and now his first

(10:28):
year in Baltimore in terms of aging not really getting
to him. Is there a case for some of those
guys to knock Saquon even lower down the list, or
are you comfortable with him at four?

Speaker 4 (10:36):
I'm comfortable with him at four. There is a case
for CMC over him, And I think you're gonna see
maybe some ranking, Like, I've got Saquon in RB four
and I've got CMC at RB five. So if you're
telling me in training camp we're getting all the buzs
at CMC looks like he's seen C and stuff, I
wouldn't have a problem putting him above.

Speaker 1 (10:52):
Saquon fits on a show we did with you, me
and Erickson earlier this week, we'd kind of talked draft
or pass, and we talked about Saquon. He was somebody
that you were drafting as high as RB two. Do
you still feel that way. It's only been a few days,
but from the last time we did a show, do
you still feel that way?

Speaker 3 (11:07):
Yeah, I've got him at RB two and fourth overall,
And I'll sort of repeat my stance on Saquon, Like
I agree with a lot of what Debro is saying,
and the four hundred and eighty two touch thing like
really is terrifying. Like what if Saquon breaks down a
year after getting this ridiculous workload that you know only

(11:27):
DeMarco Murray has seen before. He maybe misses some games,
but I'm still pretty confident that as long as Saquon
is playing, he is going to produce big numbers. And
I agree with the bro like, yeah, he could regress
in some areas, although I do think the Eagles are
still going to be one of the run heavier teams
in the league, if not as crazily run heavy as

(11:50):
they were last season, So we could definitely get like
a lesser season from Saquon, but man, after a season
in which he had almost twenty three hundred yards from
scrimmage and fifteen touchdowns, we could fall back to like
seventeen hundred yards from scrimmage, ten or eleven touchdowns and
still be pretty content with that with an early first

(12:10):
round pick. So you know, I still feel pretty comfortable
with him. He's not my RB one B Jean Robinson is,
but I still feel okay about drafting Saquon early on.

Speaker 1 (12:23):
I feel like there's a lot of running backs in
the top eight or so who are terrifying to both
draft and pass. Like say, Quad, it's a little it's
scary right coming up the volume, but it's also kind
of scary to pass and say, this dude was winning
leagues last year and is in basically the same situation
I say, Christian McCaffrey, it's scary to pass on a

(12:43):
guy who now seems healthier and has been the number
one overall running back, but has this injury history. It's
it's scary to draft or pass on Devon ah Chan.
I think, like Penning on two his health like, It's
just there's a lot of guys where you can really
easily I think paint the picture of a very high
end season but also kind of falling off and really
hurting you if you took them early. Amongst the running

(13:04):
backs in this range. So Sekwon obviously the guy coming
off the best season of those, which is why he's
ranked where he is. Fits Let's go to your next
early round risky player.

Speaker 3 (13:14):
Yeah, it's Lad McConkie, and I don't think a lot
of people are going to see him as a risk either.
Ladd was undeniably awesome as a rookie, and his rookie
aar just kept getting better and better as it went on,
culminating in a one hundred and ninety seven yard game
in the Chargers wild card loss to the Texans. Here's

(13:34):
the thing, though, Lad McConkie had one hundred and twelve
targets last season, he ranked twenty sixth in targets and
only missed one game, So granted there was a target
uptick for him later in the season. If we break
his season in half, he was at six point five
targets per game over his first eight regular season game

(13:55):
seven point five.

Speaker 2 (13:56):
Over his last eight.

Speaker 3 (13:57):
But still, if we say Ladd is going to average
seven point five targets and not miss a game this season,
that works out to one hundred and twenty eight targets,
which would have ranked nineteenth last year, and he had
terrific efficiency numbers two point five to nine yards per
out run ten point three yards per target. He'll have
strong efficiency numbers again because he's a really good player,

(14:18):
But no wide receiver is maintaining two point five nine
yards per up run and ten point three yards per
target over the long haul. Well, okay, maybe one guy,
because Justin Jefferson has averaged two point six ozer yards
per rout run and ten point two yards per target
over his career. But Jamar Chase two point two to
three yards per rout run, nine point three yards per
target cd LAMB two point twenty five yards per run

(14:40):
eight point eight yards per target. Hard to keep up
the crazy efficiency that Ladd gave us last year. So
if he can't increase the efficiency numbers. And even with
those high efficiency numbers, he was wide receiver seventeen in
PPR points per game among receivers who played at least
eight games. So Lad would need more target volume to

(15:00):
give a solid wide receiver one stats. I don't know
if he's going to get a target pump this year.
Like the Chargers signed Naji Harrison, drafted O'maron Hampton, Jim Harbaugh,
and Greg Roman want to run the crap out of
the ball, and Chargers also drafted Trey Harris Deebro favorites,
and now they might have another credible pass catching threat,
maybe more if the Ronde Gadsten Junior Mini Camp pipe

(15:24):
is to be believed. So I'm seeing Ladd McConkie go
ahead of AJ Brown and Drake London and some basketball drafts,
and I just I think that's a bridge too far.
As much as I like Ladd, I'm kind of gently
fading him in my drafts this year.

Speaker 4 (15:37):
Deebro.

Speaker 1 (15:38):
It feels like Ladd is one of those guys who
is very settled into his consensus ranking, like he's currently
eleventh in ECR, and I think maybe you could make
the case for oh I actually have him twelve or
maybe as high as ten. But I don't see a
ton of people making the case that he should be like, oh,
he's way undervalued, he should be up there at six,

(15:59):
or he's way over value, you should be down at eighteen.
It feels like his range of not outcomes, but of
where he's being ranked as a preseason draft prospect is
pretty solidified. That doesn't mean he can't be risky, but
it means there seems to be a lot of general
consensus around him. You have him, I think it's twelfth.
I don't know if you've updated these rankings this last
time I'm looking at them, but you also have him
in that range. How do you view lad McConkie in

(16:21):
terms of a risky guy to draft or not?

Speaker 4 (16:23):
I see some of the risk. Like my biggest thing
is what version of the Chargers offense do we get
this year? Because when we look at how the totality
of last year, I mean down the back half, so
Week seven through eighteen, they ranked eighth in neutral passing
rate and sixth and pass rate over expectation, And I
know there was a lot of injuries to the backfield.
They since like fortified the backfield to the draft of

(16:43):
free agency. I guess I'm kind of wondering where does
the pass ray go for Ladd McConkie this year in
this offense that and can he because as good as
he was and fits nailed it like, the efficiency was otherworldly,
which is a reflection of talent, and we should believe
in talent all that kind of stuff, even second year
wide receivers. My questions on Lad are twofold one. I

(17:05):
do have n't at wide receiver thirteen, so I'm slightly
blow consensus on him, but within striking distance depending on
where you know where he's falling in drafts, which so
people will get exposure to him. But my questions for
Ladd's outcome this year are with the pass rate, what
does that happen?

Speaker 1 (17:21):
Like?

Speaker 4 (17:22):
As long as the Chargers aren't a bottom five pass
rate team, I think there's still a path for Lad.
The other part about it is as good as he was,
he still only had a twenty two point nine percent
target share after Week seven. So can Ladd in his
second year bump up from the twenty two to twenty
three percent range. Can he get into that twenty five

(17:43):
to twenty seven percent range. Hell, can he get to
thirty percent? You know? Because I mean, look, as much
as I love Trey Harris, he's a rookie. Even if
he pops like Ladd should still be the clear leader
of this passing attack. And outside of him, who's a
high end target earner, a proven high end target earners.
So can he bump up the target rate and become

(18:04):
even more of a target hog? And what does the
pass rate look like? So I see the path for
lad out producing this ADP like in this ranking, but
not by a ton man like I think in the
best case in scenarios, like even during that stretch, he
was still what wide receiver eleven in Fantasy points per game?
So like we're all drafting him and saying, okay, repeat

(18:25):
what you do, Like is he a guy that you're
gonna draft? And you say he does have top five upside?
That's where it's like you really got to squint to
see it. And I don't know if I see top
five upside. To FITs' point, he kind of feels like
more of a guy we're asking to replicate what happened
last year. I think there's a path to do it,

(18:45):
but it's some things kind of go right and some
of these things. We just don't know what the Chargers
want to do.

Speaker 1 (18:51):
Fits if you had to guess, like if I told
you to put a number ranking to it, where do
you think the Chargers offense finishes this year in terms
of passing rate?

Speaker 2 (19:00):
Thirtieth thirtieth?

Speaker 1 (19:01):
Okay, so you do see them as definitely bottom five?

Speaker 3 (19:03):
Oh yeah, dude, Like, I mean, how much more could
they telegraph what they want to do on offense by
signing Najie Harrison drafting Omaron Hampton in the first round?
They are going to run the ball like crazy. And
it's Greg Roman.

Speaker 2 (19:15):
Worm.

Speaker 3 (19:16):
You're you're a Ravens fan, you should know what Greg
Roman wants to do.

Speaker 4 (19:19):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
The one thing I would say about Greg Roman is
that Herbert's the best passer he's ever coached. So I'm
not closed off to the possibility that he does he
does want to pass more now that he has a
great passer, Like his other stops had been largely with
great running quarterbacks. So Ellie, at least at that point
in his career where Lamar was when he was with Lamar,

(19:40):
and I wonder if the running back edition is more
just they don't want to be terrible there, Like what
kind of late season JK. Dobbins and Gus Edwards has washed?
And I wonder if it's more like we refuse to
be bad at this position as opposed to we're now
gonna run it, you know, the third most times in football.
But that's definitely on the table, Like, I don't that
with a degree of confidence.

Speaker 3 (20:01):
Greg Roman is a descendant of the prehistoric play callers
of the NFL. He draws his plays up on a
cave wall.

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Speaker 1 (21:31):
All right, debro, who's your next risky player?

Speaker 2 (21:34):
Oh?

Speaker 4 (21:34):
I know, if it's he's probably not gonna like this. One,
it's Jonathan Taylor. Man at the low hanging fruit here
is worry about the offensive ecosystem he's living in with
the quarterback situation, how often are they going to get
in the red zone? So, I mean, that's that's the
easy thing to sit here and pick apart here. But
for me, it also comes down to Jonathan Taylor just
at the player and the efficiency. Last year, we saw

(21:57):
he dropped off a map going from a guy that
I've had in that Nick Chubb type of file. Hum
As far as rushing efficiency tackle breaking, the explosive run
rate was still there for Jonathan Taylor last year, but
the tackle breaking was not. And yes, we can point
to is that some of Okay, he was hurt last
year and playing through an injury and stuff, but that's

(22:18):
kind of been Jonathan Taylor's game over the last few years.
But forty six qualifying running backs last year, Jonathan Taylor
forty second and miss tackles force per attempt forty fourth.
In yards of the contact per attempt, only Kareem Hunt
and Nick Chubb were worse than Jonathan Taylor in that
metric last year. And going back to the health, I mean,
dude has dealt with ankle injuries basically his entire career.

(22:41):
He's had so last year the high ankle's brain. He's
had ankle injuries in each of the last three seasons.
And the other part of this is is the passing game.
If if the efficiency dips, the volume the efficiency this
offense dips. Does JT have the runout to get pass
game usage or the efficiency that could save him if

(23:01):
those things go wrong. He hasn't, And I don't think
it's gonna change with regardless of whoever on that depth
chart is going to be playing quarterback this year. I
don't think that's gonna be there. And Jonathan Taylor last
year was thirty seventh in target chare and forty third
in yards per route run and first downs per route run.
So JT just feels like the sexier version of Kirine
Williams to me, And it's just not a player or

(23:23):
archetype that I'm really interested in.

Speaker 1 (23:26):
I think Fitz might be closer to Debro's stance on
this than Debro thinks, even despite interesting homer ism, just
based on where he's rank, because Fitz does have him
a couple spots below ECR.

Speaker 3 (23:38):
Yeah, I've got him at RB ten in half point PPR, yeah.

Speaker 1 (23:44):
RB eight in ECR.

Speaker 4 (23:45):
Just I've got him at RB thirteen, So I mean
we were basically riding together then. Ft see, I'm surprised
by this.

Speaker 3 (23:51):
I'm trying not to be a Wisconsin Homer this year.
I think I'm belove in a census on both Jonathan
Taylor and Jake Ferguson. So yeah, I mean I've kind
of the same concerns. I do think a healthy Jonathan
Taylor is still one of the best peer runners in
the NFL. So, like the numbers the Debro sites, I
think would be better if he were fully healthy. But

(24:11):
the health is obviously a concern. I think, as Debro
mentioned the ankle thing, I remember arguing with Evan Silva
about this last year but before the season, and Evan
turned out to be right. He's like, I think the
ankle issues are chronic, and sure enough, like Taylor winds
up getting another ankle issue. So he's missed eight games

(24:33):
due to ankle problems over the last three years, ongoing concern.
He's also had fewer than twenty receptions each of the
last two years, and it's hard to see the reception
total spiking when the quarterbacks are Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones.
So yeah, I'm a little taping on JT as well.

Speaker 1 (24:52):
Where's the round fits that you're willing to draft Taylor? Like,
where in those early rounds would you say, okay, I'm
taking the swing.

Speaker 2 (24:58):
Yeah, like later second would be fine?

Speaker 1 (25:01):
Is it more early third for you?

Speaker 4 (25:02):
Debro He's a back into the third pick for me,
so probably not going to get him. I don't know
where where's he at an overall rinks worm nineteenth? Yeah?
So people, I'm like a round and a half behind
e c.

Speaker 2 (25:17):
R twenty two.

Speaker 1 (25:19):
His ADP for the record is aligned with ECR at
amongst the running backs at RB eight. So doesn't seem
like a guy that you guys will be getting much of.
I don't think I will be getting a lot of
Jonathan Taylor either. Let's go to your next player here, Fits,
we're moving to a tight end now.

Speaker 3 (25:34):
Yeah, hockey season is over, but deebro and I are
going to drop the gloves on this one. And spoiler alert,
I'm gonna pull his sweater over his head and start pumbling.

Speaker 2 (25:43):
Away at him.

Speaker 3 (25:45):
It's Trey McBride who has a late second round ADP.
I think he's a third round value, and I've got
him ranked behind Brock Powers and George Kittle. But Trey
McBride is is Deebro's tight end. One more on that minute.
So McBride is coming off a wonderful season one hundred
and eleven catches, eleven hundred and forty six yards two

(26:07):
point one to two yards per route run, which is
a really good number. He's a stud, no question. I'm
just not taking him ahead of JSN, Garrett Wilson, Chase Brown,
Kyron Williams, or George Kittle for that matter, all of
whom have lower ADPs than Trey McBride. I have two
issues with McBride relative to his cost. First Off, I

(26:29):
know people are waiting for him that better luck with touchdowns,
and I wouldn't be surprised if he put up a
good touchdown total this season. It's certainly reasonable to think
he'll beat his previous season best touchdown total, which is three.
But like the poor TD, totals are a chronic thing
for this guy, McBride has six touchdowns and forty nine
NFL games over three seasons. In his final college season

(26:51):
at Colorado State, ninety receptions, one touchdown, which by the way,
he didn't get until his last game of his college career.
Didn't have more than four touchdowns in any other college season,
so in his last seven years of organized football, his
high end touchdowns is four. Like, maybe Trey McBride is
just a guy who isn't going to give us many touchdowns.

(27:12):
The other thing, you have to think that Cardinals offensive
coordinator Drew Pettsing spent the offseason trying to figure out
ways to better utilize Marvin Harrison Junior. Like the number
four overall pick in the draft, MHJ had an average
depth of target of thirteen point four yards. Like he
was totally miscast as this vertical receiver. Something has to change.

(27:35):
And now, debro to your credit, you are consistent with
the story you tell with your rankings. You McBride is
the tight end one, and you're skeptical about Marvin Harrison Junior.
You've got him ranked as a wide receiver three. Now
I tend to think we get different usage and better
numbers for Marvin Harrison Junior in year two, which likely
means at least a slight haircut in targets and receptions

(27:57):
for Trey McBride. I do think Bride is really good,
and I can understand why most people have him ranked
ahead of George Kittle, even though I prefer Kittle. But
debro McBride over brock Bauers is batguano crazy man.

Speaker 2 (28:09):
And let me tell you why.

Speaker 4 (28:11):
It's really not nick. We'll get to it.

Speaker 3 (28:13):
McBride was a very good tight end prospect coming out
of college. Brock Bauers may have been the best tight
end prospect ever. McBride put in two seasons building towards
his one hundred and eleven catch eleven hundred yard breakout.
In year three, brock Bowers had one hundred and twelve
catches and eleven hundred yards as a rookie. Ours is
just on another level, man like he and Trey McBride

(28:35):
are not comparable.

Speaker 4 (28:37):
All right, Well, gloves are all right, fitsy, let's go
all right. So I do have Trey McBride, and we're
gonna talk about mar of an Erson Junior. Don't worry, people,
We're gonna talk about him later in this episode. So
McBride has and I want to be very clear when
I say this, McBride has league defining league winner upside

(29:00):
this year. If you look at how bad his touchdown
luck was last year, it wasn't because of usage. It's
straight up like sometimes players run bad and touchdowns. We
talk about this all the time. Touchdowns are the flukiest
thing every year. I'm old enough, FITZI where I lived
in a world once where we talked about George Kittle
can't score touchdowns. That's not a problem these days. We've

(29:21):
talked about that with other players. We talked about that.
We're all living in this world where we talked about
that at one point with Amara Sam Brown. That hasn't
been an issue the last two years because to beginning
his season he was born, that Keenan Allen Molden wasn't
scoring touchdowns. So McBride I think we were talking about
a player that it has been the ultimate run bad
with touchdowns. He was second in red zone targets amongst

(29:43):
tight ends last year, so the touchdowns are coming. But
also we're discussing a player that literally led as good
as Bowers was last year. Trey McBride amongst forty seven
qualifying tight ends first and target share second and receiving
yards per game, thirty yards per route run first and
first downs. He was top three in every single freaking
metric I can find, and the only thing that went

(30:04):
bad for him last year was touchdowns. Nothing has changed
in Arizona as far as the constitution of this offense.
Arizona is running it back, same dudes. So for me,
I have a hard time getting wrapping my head around
the rational coaching of Drew Petsing is not going to
do dumb stuff with the same exact players that he

(30:25):
had last year. And even if he does change up
Marvin Harrison Junior's route tree, which I think he should,
these two guys, I mean, they're the twin pillars of
this passing attack. They're both gonna soak up north of
twenty five twenty seven percent target shaars if everything goes right.
And Trey mc bride, and the reason I say he
has league defining upside last year, if the touchdowns were

(30:48):
where they should have been based off of his volume
and usage in everything, this guy was the he So
he scored fifteen point six Fantasy points per game last year,
his expected Fantasy points per game, and I know that
wasn't real, but based off of the volume, the expected
Fantasy points per game, he should have scored was nineteen
point two points. Boys, That is Travis kelcey first round

(31:13):
league defining type of production to where if you compare
him across other positions, that spot would have made Tran
McBride the wide receiver three in Fantasy points per game
last year and the RB five in Fantasy points per
game last year. That is a first round league defining
league winning player. The touchdowns happened this year, McBride will

(31:36):
win people leagues and tilt the math in his favor.

Speaker 1 (31:40):
Deebro, if you had to guess right now, like just
project how many touchdowns he's gonna have this year, what
number would you put it at? What range are we
thinking that you think will be not expected? But the
actual touchdown total this.

Speaker 4 (31:52):
Year seven to eight? Okay, I think he's gonna have
a big swing.

Speaker 1 (31:57):
I do to me, And I know this is a
little bit different for you Fits because you actually do
have Kittle ranked ahead. But for somebody like you Debro
to me, the biggest case for somebody like Kittle is
that if you have them close, and I think you
do because you are also high on George Kittle this year,
I am very hop he's going based on ECR as
an early fourth rounder, whereas Trey McBride is a late

(32:18):
second rounder. That's like a round and a half of
value for a guy that you think is also very
very good. To me, that's the case for you know,
not taking somebody like McBride is if you think you
can get kittle a little bit later. I do think
McBride should be ranked higher though, Like it's funny because
Debra heads trade McBride tight end one fits as and
tight end three. I've got him tight end two, which

(32:39):
I think is it's not. I think it is in
line with consensus, you know, behind only brock Bowers. But
I tend to lean closer to the Debro side of
this argument just in terms of the upside and how
excited I would be to have Trey McBride on my team.

Speaker 4 (32:54):
I guess.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
Let me ask you this, Fitz, how much of your
worry with Trey McBride and your argument again and it's
again it's not you have him buried in your rankings.
He's tight in three for you, But how much of you,
relatively speaking, fading McBride is strictly that touchdown your production
as opposed to all the other factors that you laid.

Speaker 3 (33:12):
Out that is maybe more than half the reason. But
I also like Deebur's underplaying the the Marvin Harrison junior thing.
I think like this is a mandate for Drew Patsing,
Like if he can't do it, fine, but then he's
gonna get fired after this year. They spent the number
four pick in the draft and.

Speaker 1 (33:31):
This guy that could happen.

Speaker 3 (33:32):
He could absolutely if he sucks again, like Patsing is gone,
because like it is the mandate of Drew Pettsing. And
you got to think he has spent some late nights
during this offseason trying to figure out how to best
utilize that Matjay so like, and maybe maybe it doesn't
happen and they lean heavily on Trey McBride again, and
Kyler just feels much more comfortable throwing these short little

(33:56):
passes to Trey. I get it, but you know, and
like we'll see on the touchdown thing, I could be wrong.
I do probably expect a new career high, although I
think it might be closer to like six than seven
or eight. You know, it's been a multi year run
of we'll find out if it's just like this multi
year run of bad touchdown luck or if this is

(34:16):
just like his thing where he is never going to
be a prolific touchdown score, that could go either way.

Speaker 4 (34:22):
The last thing I'll mention here before we transition worm
is one other thing about the Arizona Cardinals offense that
is not talked about enough is they leaned extremely pass
heavy towards the back half of last year, so the
volume for all these players could go up. Weeks twelve
through eighteen last year, Arizona was fourth in Neutral's crept

(34:43):
passing rate. The only teams that were higher were the Bengals,
the Chiefs, and the Texans.

Speaker 1 (34:47):
I think so the reason and we'll move off it
after this point. The reason fits that I asked about
how much the touchdown thing is weighing on your fading
of him here is because I think the better case
for being lower on streaming Bride is the anticipation of
Marvin Harrison Junior taking step forward. Because last year Dray
McBride had two receiving touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and he

(35:08):
was still he was tight end two in PPR, tight
end three and a half VPR. So even if the
tight ends, even if the touchdowns don't come, he's still
giving you, based on the usage last year, a top
three tight end floor. It's the idea that the usage
might not be the same. I think that is the
more if you're going to make the case of him
as risky, the one where you can see him actually
falling off and being a bad pick.

Speaker 3 (35:30):
Yeah, and like no question, there is a gigantic grand
Canyon type drop off from number three.

Speaker 2 (35:37):
However you want to order it the top three to
whoever's at number four.

Speaker 1 (35:41):
Yeah, agreed, All right, Deeve bro let's go to your
next early round risky player.

Speaker 4 (35:46):
Oh good lord. I don't know how anybody wants to
draft Tyreek Hill, but he's a back in ECR is
a top fifteen wide receiver. People are just saying, yep,
top five, sailing two is gonna stay healthy, Tyreek's not
gonna face Father Time. All these things are going to happen.
I'm just not there man aging wide receivers. Father Time
is undefeated. Tyreek is being ranked with a lot of

(36:08):
hopium and not near where his production was last year.
I mean, weeks eight through sixteen with two of back
wide receiver twenty four and fantasy points per game, which
is actually very generous. Considering he was outside the top
thirty wide receivers in target chair and yards per route run.
You look at one hundred and twelve qualifying wide receivers
last year, the per route metrics fell off guys twenty eighth,

(36:33):
in separation forty eighth and route win rate. That's not
a player that I want to be drafting inside of
the top twenty at wide receivers with all of that risk,
an aging, declining player. And we haven't even discussed like
the Tyreek just being Tyreek kind of stuff, like can
we not like talk about like it's a non zero

(36:54):
chance that he pulls off his jersey, pulls an A
B and says, screw you, guys, I'm out at halftime.
Have I Week eight or Mike McDaniels is fired, and
this entire team just goes into the freaking can. So, No,
I don't want to draft Tyreek Kill. No. I don't
think he has two thousand yard receiving upside. No, I
don't think he has top five wide receiver upside in fantasy.

(37:14):
I feel like this is one of the landmines of
fantasy draft season. I'm not drafting Tyreek Hill this year.

Speaker 1 (37:21):
I don't really have a lot to add on this
one because I like, totally agree he's just not somebody
at costs that I really have any interest in. There's
just too many. I think he's a prime example of
a very risky player and there's just too many risks
for me to be interested. Fits you're not like well
ahead of where Debra has him ranked, but you are
a couple spots higher than deebro on Hill in terms
of the wide receiver rankings.

Speaker 3 (37:40):
Yeah, wide receiver nineteen, so below consensus above where Deebro
has him, and you have to at least consider the
possibility that they restore some of the verticality to the
Miami passing game if they're confident they can, you know,
adequately protect Tua, which is not a given because I
do not like the Miami offensive line this year. So yeah,

(38:06):
I don't think we're seeing another seventeen hundred yard season
out of Tyreek. Maybe like twelve hundred is doable if
things get good again and maybe gets back to double
digit touchdowns. But I do, like Deebro, have concerns about
how well he ages with his game, Like I think
Mike Evans' game is probably going to age better than
Tyreek Hill's game, Yes, because Evans does not do it

(38:28):
with athleticism and speed. He does it by being a
superior rebounder. And like the contested catchability is not going
to disappear that quickly with age. So yeah, I'm kind
of drafting around Tyreek myself.

Speaker 4 (38:44):
Mike Evans and DeVante Adams should not be ranked behind
Tyreek Hill, and yet an ECR, this is what we're seeing.

Speaker 1 (38:51):
I was going to say, when I look at like
these names and if I want to throw like a
either or at you guys on the show, like Tyreek
Hill or so, and so if I look at our
staff rankings, he's around names where I'm a lot more
willing to make that. You know, oh, would you rather
take Tyre Killer Marvin Harrison Junior or Tyri Kill or
Ted McMillan, Tyra Killer Dk metcalf. I think those are

(39:11):
reasonable questions to ask. But if you look at ECR,
the names that he's around where you say, oh, would
rather have Tyreek Kill or it's Tyrey Killer, Garrett Wilson,
Tyry Killer, Mike Evans, Tyry Killer, t Higgen, Tyry Killer,
DeVante Adams, And to me, it's very easy not Tyreek
Hill in any of those scenarios, Like, I just don't
think he's in the range of the rankings that he
should be. It should be like five to eight spots lower,

(39:32):
and those are the names he should be near.

Speaker 4 (39:34):
Adamantly agree, adamant.

Speaker 1 (39:38):
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(40:00):
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(40:21):
it to people to check that out. So again fantasypros
dot Com slash Intel. All right, let's go to some
of the mid round names here. If it's who you have,
and obviously there's inherently less risk the later into the
draft you get, so well, maybe go a little bit
quicker on these names. We just got four of them
here for you, But mid round names risky. Who you
got first?

Speaker 3 (40:37):
Yeah, A Lions fans already hate me, so I might
as well just lean into that. David Montgomery. Over the
last two years, Montgomery has scored twenty five touchdowns in
twenty eight regular season games, and as I mentioned in
my little soliloquy about I'm and around Saint Brown earlier
in the show, I'm not expecting another league high seventy
touchdowns out of the alliance. With Ben Jonson no longer around,

(41:01):
the Lions also had excellent veteran center Frank ragnow retire.
You have to wonder if that's going to affect Detroit's
inside running game, and man, you really have to wonder
how much longer it's going to be a near fifty
to fifty workload split between Jumior Gibbs and David Montgomery.
When Gibbs is one of the three best running backs
in the NFL. So I just see a number of

(41:21):
possible ways that Montgomery does not live up to his adp.

Speaker 1 (41:26):
Yeah, I've liked Montgomery for a long time, but it
feels like it was at a certain point the other
shoes get to drop here and it's going to be
more fully gives backfield. There's going to be fewer touchdown
scoring opportunities deeper. What do you think about Montgomery? Where
do you have them ranked?

Speaker 4 (41:40):
I've got him at RB twenty two, some right behind consensus.
I could make an easy case once we get into
training camp and roles are kind of getting solidified a
little bit, more guys are staying healthy, things like that,
where I can bump them down a little bit more.
And I do think that this his profile was incredibly
touchdown dependent. I mean, like weeks one through four team
and he was healthy, he was twenty first in rushing

(42:03):
arts per game. But this dude was second in the
NFL and rushing touchdowns behind only freaking Derek Henry through
the first fourteen games.

Speaker 2 (42:09):
So see anti Trey McBride de bro I know.

Speaker 4 (42:13):
That's good call FITSI Yeah, I mean, so's it's a
lot of touchdowns driven, So it really comes down to, like,
what do you think about Jamira Gibbs and his role,
and what do you think about the constitution of the
Lions offense this year? And if both of those things,
if you lean toward more towards Gibbs or you think
the Lions are going to regress some more, then Montgomery
needs to be low. But I mean, dude, like over
that spot because of the touchdowns. He was RB eleven

(42:35):
and Fantasy points per game, so honestly, compared to the production,
we're all kind of giving him the discount to a
certain extent. But I do think we can do it
a little bit more if like guys like Traveon Henderson
and some of these other guys, like if we do
get word that you know, like Aaron Jones is staying
healthy and all these are the parts and pieces. If

(42:56):
those things happen, I could see other players hopping him
in ranks before we get the week one.

Speaker 1 (43:00):
Do you think fits that there's maybe a case to
be made for Montgomery as a good investment because he
can be somebody that is like a low end flex
for you when everybody's healthy. But if Gibbs gets hurt,
he becomes a much more valuable starter.

Speaker 3 (43:14):
Yeah, I mean there there is that contingent up side
for sure, Like if Gibbs were to miss three or
four games, Montgomery could.

Speaker 1 (43:21):
I mean, he's getting ranked as a top twelve running
back in any week he gives us out right or
at least a lot.

Speaker 3 (43:25):
Yeah, at first, I mean that that is the one
path for Montgomery to out kick his ADP significantly.

Speaker 1 (43:33):
Yeah, deebra, who's your risky player here?

Speaker 4 (43:36):
All right, Well, we've we've ticked off a few fan bases.
I'm gonna tick off the Dejons and the Carolina Panthers
fan base here with Chuba Hubbard. I'm just not sold
on Chewba Hubbard. I feel like last year, if you
really put his full season under the microscope, there's a
lot of worries here. So Miles Sanders, I'm not telling
you that he's good, but he factored into this backfield.
He left week ten with an injury, mix missed weeks

(43:59):
ten through seven, And if you look at Hubbard's usage
at the very like the outset of the year and
how it progressed before Miles Sanders, there's a lot of
worries here, guys, where weeks one through nine with Hubbard
and Miles Sanders, Hubbard played fifty four to eighty three
percent of the snaps. He had four games in that
sample with sixty five percent lower the snaps if you

(44:20):
dial it in further, so, basically before Carolina figured out
that Miles Sanders was total dust in weeks one through three,
Hubbard and looking at his past game role, which we've
talked about pass game, and that's where it gives the
floor and the ceiling for these players in weeks one
through three, before the Carolina kind of figured up Miles
Sanders is not very good a football anymore. Chuba Hubbard

(44:41):
only had a thirty five point five percent route per
drop back rate. Sanders is zing into it too at
twenty seven percent. Their red zone role was basically split.
Hubbard had three rush red zone rushing attempt Sanders had two. Now,
if you look at after Sanders was out, Hubbard's route
per dropback rate skyrocketed to sixty four percent. He had

(45:02):
a twelve point four percent target chair and a lot
of that was just based out of necessity. They didn't
have illustrious pass catchers and so adding Tero McMillan some
of these guys being another year in the Carolina Panthers
passing offense and the system, Hubbard failed to eclipse one
point zero yards per route run or fifteen receiving yards
per game, regardless of whatever split you look at for

(45:25):
the season. So I think he could have issues in
the red zone if because they also signed Rico Dowd
in the offseason, and they drafted Trevor Eten, who was
a very good passing downback. So looking at Hubbard's runout
this year, I think Everybody's kind of expecting, Oh, he's
going to go back to being like basically Carolinas Kyvin Williams,
where he's getting all the work, and I don't know

(45:47):
if that happens. Guys like I think Rico, who played
really well last year, can eat into the red zone
role and the early down role. Trevor Etn if he
proves that he is competent on passing downs, can eat
into the passing game role. And I mean we already
saw this happen with Miles Sanders last year to begin
the year before Hubbard went on that just monstrous, like
eighty ninety ninety five percent of the snaps type of run.

(46:08):
So I think last year's role and production was based
out of necessity, not a reflection of like Hubbard's overall
talent and skill set as a true three down bell cow.
So Hubbard where he's being drafted, I just can't buy
into it. Man. I've got him as a low RB
two and my ranks right now, I've got him as
a RB twenty four, and that could be generous if

(46:31):
this becomes maybe a two or three way committee.

Speaker 1 (46:34):
Fitz, this is one where based on the rankings it
looks like you are higher on Tuba than Debro is.

Speaker 3 (46:39):
Yeah, RB seventeen, and I've kind of debated like moving
James Connor ahead of him, so it might be RB
eighteen by tomorrow. But so I don't dispute Debro's assessment
of Cuba's passing down roll. I wouldn't be surprised if
Cuba finished with fewer than the forty three catches he
had last year. I do think like Cuba would have

(47:00):
to be pretty bad and play himself out of the
lead gig to not be the lead guy. Like the
Panthers told us how they feel about their situation with
the contracts they handed out. They gave Cuba four years
thirty three million, sixteen and a half guaranteed. Rico Dowdle
got a one year, two point seventy five million dollar deal, So,
like Cuba is, Cuba is the guy. Rico is not

(47:22):
unseating him in the preseason. And Cuba was actually pretty
good as a runner last year, eighth in yards after
contact or attempt among all running backs with at least
one hundred carries. So I still think Cuba is pretty good.
And I like the trajectory of the offense under Dave
Kanalis in Carolina, and I think Carolina has one of

(47:43):
the better young offensive lines in the league.

Speaker 4 (47:45):
I've also heard of a lot about the Cuba Hubber contract.
I just want to point it out there for people
that the Carolina Panthers can get out of his contract
after this season with only a four point five million
dead cap hit. Yeah, it's kind of funny money a
little bit too.

Speaker 3 (48:02):
Sixteen and a half million guaranteed is not nothing, though.
That is money that Chuba Hubbard is getting no matter
what faith.

Speaker 1 (48:09):
Let's go to your next risky player.

Speaker 3 (48:11):
It's Chris Godwin, and Godwin is actually pretty affordable right now.
His consensus ADP is fifty eighth overall, so he's a
late fifth rounder. People are going to think that's pretty
good value for a guy who was wide receiver one
in PPR scoring through the first six weeks of twenty
twenty four. But then he got hurt, and really that

(48:33):
is my concern, the health issue. Godwin dislocated his ankle
and fractured his fibula. It was a pretty gruesome injury
in that game against the Ravens. Worm and I just
have a hard time believing that Godwin is going to
be anywhere close to one hundred percent to start the season,
and frequent guest of the show, doctor d pak Jonah,

(48:54):
says he thinks Godwin is going to be more like
eighty percent to start the season, in ninety percent by
mid season. Factor in added target competition. I mean, Godwin
was already sharing targets with the great Mike Evans and
now here comes first round pick a Mecca a Buka.
So I'm just not that interested in rostering Chris Godwin
this season, even though I really like the player and

(49:16):
you know, got off to a flying start last year.

Speaker 2 (49:19):
I just don't think this year is gonna be anything
like last year.

Speaker 4 (49:22):
Debrow, where you at on Godwin, I'm actually lower than consent.
I got him at wide receiver thirty four. Consensus hasn't
as a wide receiver of twenty eight. So I'm with
Fitzy on this one. The other third part about Godwin
and if we just pop up in the hood of
last year, I mean, he didn't start out great out
out the gate when they had him playing more outside.

(49:43):
It was after towards the middle of the season whenever
he went back into the slot and they got force
fed all the design targets and stuff like that, where
we saw him just crushing. And so what do we
see is he gonna with with the arrival of a mecca?
A Buka is a Mecca Buca and Godwin gonna rotate
inside outside is a Mecca gonna play in the end side?
Is Godwin going to be healthy like I think at
this point of his career, Like these are a lot

(50:04):
of different questions, and when we're in this range of
the draft and stuff like that, I just find myself
continually picking other players in the draft, like you know
the ECR, like are we gonna go with Chris Godwin
to have one last ride? Or you want to pick
Jalen Waddle, you want to go with Tedoro McMillan, Like,
those are other guys that are at their cost and
where they're at versus Godwin. I would much rather draft

(50:26):
either one of.

Speaker 1 (50:27):
Them, Debro. Let's go to the last risky guy here.

Speaker 4 (50:30):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (50:31):
And this is some way that we've kind of alluded
to a lot already in the show talking about other players.
So I think we can go quicker on here.

Speaker 4 (50:36):
I mean, dude, everybody is forecasting that Marvin Harrison Junior
takes not only just a I mean like a ginormous step.
He was wide receiver thirty nine and Fantasy points per
game last year. He is being ranked in ECR as
Wide receiver twenty. So everybody is baking in an overly
So the second year leap for wide receivers that were
just expecting to happen, but yet Drew Petsing is still there.

(50:59):
Yet they didn't add any other wide receivers of different
archetypes that can do the role. That basically they shoved
the Marvin Harrison Junior into last year because if you
go weeks one through nine, this dude had had forty
nine percent of his routes were vertical breaking routes. Unfortunately
for Marvin Errison Junior, he ranked eighty fourth in separation
and fifty first in route win rate on vertical breaking routes.

(51:22):
Is this going to change this year? Everybody in ECR,
and everybody's telling us that that it is. I'm not
so sure with that. I'm not telling you that. I
believe in rational coaching and I believe that Drew Petsing
is magic going to roll out of bed in the
year twenty twenty five and do smarter things with Marvin
Errison Junior in a role that he was ill equipped

(51:43):
to perform in. And we all could talk about, Oh,
he looks really really good. He's all bulked up and
stuff like that. Hey what if that kind of works
against him? And he's the next David Boston And it's
not a wonderful thing that he added all the size
and strength fits.

Speaker 1 (51:56):
Do you have anything more you want add on Harrison
or we already talked about him earlier.

Speaker 3 (51:59):
Oh Man evoking the David Boston thing is pretty terrifying.
So his consensus ADP is wide receiver sixteen. I'm wide
receiver eighteen. Like I said, I think Drew Petsing is
going to try to fix the problems with Marvin Harrison Junior.
And I do believe in the talent. I just don't
know if he and Kyler Murrie are a good mix,
with Kyler clearly like not loving throwing over the middle

(52:22):
of the field, Like Kyler likes to throw to the edges.

Speaker 4 (52:26):
And you can't see the middle of the field FITSI,
you can't see over the offensive line exactly.

Speaker 1 (52:31):
I'm not like out on Harrison. I think I'm more
interested in him than certainly de Bro, maybe a little
more interested than Fits. But ADP of wide receiver sixteen
seems really high coming off to us, rich dude, like
that is like a lot of banking in.

Speaker 4 (52:45):
I've got him taking a step forward, like I've got
him ranked as a wide receiver three. That's better than
what he produced last year. But everybody else will say, no, no,
we gotta go.

Speaker 1 (52:53):
I would have more in wide receiver too, but like
back in wide receiver too, not like sixteenth is really high,
all right, So we've got kind of one little mini
segment here to wrap things up. It's kind of just
one more risky player that you guys might actually draft
at the spot. So kind of a player that does
carry some risk, but that you guys are maybe extra
interested in giving their current cost. Bit's who you have here.

Speaker 2 (53:14):
All right.

Speaker 3 (53:15):
I was eagerly drafting Chris a Lave when he was
going in the late second or early third round. You
better believe I'm going to be drafting him in at
least one or two leagues now that he's like wide
receiver thirty six or something and going in the sixth round.
Two thousand yard seasons to begin his career before last
year's injury shortened campaign. A Lave is a terrific route runner.

(53:37):
A Lave is big time speed. A Lave has averaged
two point two one yards per rout run for his career,
which is excellent. But people are going to be scared
away by the dual specters of his concussion issues and
his quarterback issues with either Spencer Ratler or Tyler Schuck
trying to.

Speaker 2 (53:53):
Get him the ball.

Speaker 3 (53:55):
I am willing to take the medical risk with the
Lave because of the potential rewards, and I do understand
the QB concerns, but look, even the very worst passing
offenses in the league every year get at least three
thousand passing yards.

Speaker 2 (54:09):
Well. The Patriots were six yards short of that last year,
But you get the idea.

Speaker 3 (54:15):
There is a certain baseline of production for even the
worst NFL passing attacks. No doubt, the Saints are going
to have one of the worst passing attacks in the league.

Speaker 2 (54:22):
It's going to be.

Speaker 3 (54:23):
A small pie, But the Saints don't have many other
credible pass catchers, So Chris o'lave is going to carve
himself off a pretty big chunk of that small pie.

Speaker 1 (54:33):
Debro, you are the biggest, uh and or only Saints
fan that I know. What do you think about a
lave this year?

Speaker 4 (54:40):
Well, you must have missed the the memos historically Saints fan.
I guess I was going to say that that I
have disavowed my fandom. I'm no longer a Saints fan
until Mickey Loomis is gone and this team actually has
a real direction forward.

Speaker 6 (54:52):
And when at that day I would return to Saints
fanom hohodep baby. But until then, Nope, I'm basically with
consensus here. I've got Chris Alave as wide receiver thirty
in my ranks. I think he's gonna be a volume
driven wide receiver three. I hope that he can outproduce that.
For me, I'm not worried about the concussions and stuff
like that, Like I understand the worry with that. For me,

(55:15):
it just comes down to the constitution of this offense
and what does he get out of quarterback play?

Speaker 4 (55:20):
What does that do to affect his touchback touchdown expectations?
So could he outperform this based off of talent, based
off of if Tyler Shuck cannot just be horrible, if
Spencer Rattler cannot be just replacement of a quarterback, then yeah,
he can out produce this. I don't think it's a
talent thing. I think it's just for me. It's the quarterback.

Speaker 3 (55:38):
You have them ranked higher than I do. I think
I'm in wide receiver thirty two if you're at thirty.

Speaker 4 (55:43):
Yeah, I mean we're both behind consensus. What is consensus
in ECR At least when I'm looking at WORM, we're.

Speaker 2 (55:52):
ADP is thirty six.

Speaker 1 (55:54):
So ECR ECR is more more in line case is
where yeah? Actually yeah twenty nine. Yeah, his ECR is
at higher in PPR. He's wide receiver twenty six actually
in ECR.

Speaker 4 (56:08):
Yeah, So I mean, to be honest, like we could
see him to fits's point, then we're above ADP. We
could see him go the closer we get to training
camps week one and stuff like that. I won't be
surprised if ECR starts to mirror what ADP is already
doing to Chris A. Lave.

Speaker 3 (56:23):
Yeah, people are people are gonna be terrified by the
quarterback thing.

Speaker 2 (56:27):
They're gonna be.

Speaker 4 (56:27):
Uh yeah, I mean well, and then I mean, come on,
guys like Travis Hunter is gonna hop him in eighty
and ECR, Tedoro McMillan's gonna hop him in ECR, probably
Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, Jordan Addison. So I think a
Labve is probably gonna settle into that wide receiver thirty
five to wide receiver thirty nine kind of bucket. So
I agree, all.

Speaker 1 (56:47):
Right, Debro, who's our last risky player? This is somebody
that you might draft despite the risks?

Speaker 4 (56:51):
Yeah, man, I mean whether it's return from injury, suspension,
how the targets are divvied up, and the role that
he plays in this offense. I was out to begin
the offseason and I'm back in. Baby it's Rashie Rice,
and I'm curious how how much being fits he fight
about this one. I think Rachie Rice has an insane
upside just looking at how he started last year, and

(57:14):
even if he wanted to tackle on how he finished
the year previous, I mean, dude, weeks one through three,
he was on just a ridiculous pace, like thirty one
point five percent target share, three point six yards per
route run, a forty one point two percent first reach
here he was at point one point eight eight first
downs per route run. And I know that's a lot

(57:35):
of numbers for people, but just just to the hundred
foot view of that, that would have put him on
the overall season for all qualifying wide receivers. If he
kept up that type of insane pace, those were top
three numbers. He would have been ranked second, first, third,
in first in those four categories. Had he kept that up,
the twenty one point six points per game that he

(57:56):
scored in that stretch would have finished second behind only
freaking Jamar Chase last year. So I'm not telling you
that he he keeps up that type of pace, but
based off of where Rashi Rice is going, I don't
think Xavier Worthy takes the Rashi Rice role in this offense.
Because Worthy proved he can play the Rice role. I

(58:17):
don't think Rice can play the field stretching role that
they're gonna ask Worthy to go right back into this year.
So whether it's you know, all the injury, the suspension
still looming, we don't know. I'm willing to deal with
all the risk that comes to Rashi Rice right now
and draft him pretty aggressively.

Speaker 1 (58:34):
If it's what you think.

Speaker 3 (58:36):
Yeah, I'm pretty conflicted on Rice and the fact that
I am not you know, all gas no breaks like
a lot of other people are on Rashi Rice has
me pretty well behind consensus just because and and my
hesitation is related to Xavier Worthy, because yeah, when Rashi
Rice was just doing tremendous things twenty twenty three, in

(59:00):
early twenty twenty four, he was the only game in
town a wide receiver. The early twenty twenty four usage
of Xavier Worthy was very much just in a gadget role,
like he was a gadget guy for them those those
first few games until Rice got hurt. Then by the
end of the season, if you factor in playoff games,
Xavier Worthy had fifty receptions over his last eight games

(59:22):
so pro rated over a full season, that's one hundred
catch pace. Like, I don't think that Genie is going
back in the bottle man, and maybe Rashie Rice is
still like the leading leads the Chiefs and targets and receptions.

Speaker 2 (59:36):
I could totally understand that happening.

Speaker 3 (59:38):
But I don't think Worthy suddenly becomes a thirty catch
guy like he is going to be involved in this
offense because he is a good player. So I just
don't see Rashie Rice getting the same sort of target
load he had in twenty twenty three in early twenty
twenty four.

Speaker 1 (59:52):
Is there a chance that both those guys end up
being correct answers this year? And like Kelsey takes another
step back, but mahomes kind of you know, coming off
this blood in the Super Bowl, it almost is like
a bit of a revenge tour, Like, hey, we're still
the Chiefs and those two are just like one A
and one B in this offense. Can you see that
happening fits or do you think it's gonna be one

(01:00:12):
or the other?

Speaker 4 (01:00:13):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:00:13):
And I'm trying to be consistent with that. So I've
got like Rice ranked right now as a mid range
wide receiver two and Worthy as a backhand wide receiver.

Speaker 1 (01:00:21):
To Dee bro what do you think about you know,
I know you said that they don't really to play
the same role. Do you think there's room for both
of them to be really strong Fantasy contributors.

Speaker 4 (01:00:29):
I don't in the roles that they're that I'm forecasting
for them to play. I think Rice goes back into
the role that he was playing last year, which is
the same role he was playing in twenty twenty three.
I think Worthy, who was the Worthy, didn't break out
last year until he started playing the Rashi Rice role.
And I think that what's kind of get lost in

(01:00:49):
the saucer is Patrick Mahomes has been objectively a terrible
downfill passer over the last two years. So I think
there's a big divide here. I think that their offense
because I think a lot of people look at this
and say, okay, like they're gonna go back to chucking
it down the field and all the kind of things
Like I'm saying it with my ranks, Like, I don't
think that that happens because I don't know if Patrick
Mahomes still has that in his skill set to be

(01:01:12):
an electric deep ball passer, like because he hasn't. He's
been horrible over the last two years not just bad,
but like one of the worst deep ball passers in
the entire NFL. And because of the name Patrick Mahomes,
it just kind of gets lost in the conversation.

Speaker 1 (01:01:26):
We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. That was
a bunch of different risky players to think twice about
drafting a twenty twenty five plus a couple that we
are interested in drafting for debro and fits. Thanks everybody
for tennereday and I'm Ryan Warmley. We'll see again next time.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts

(01:01:48):
at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify. Follow
us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
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FantasyPros - 12 RISKY Fantasy Football Players You Should Think Twice About Before Drafting in 2025 (Ep. 1601)

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