April 9, 2025 • 26 mins
Trump addresses the 90-day tariff pause but not for China. Guest Seth Basham, Managing Director, Equity Research | Wedbush Securities.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is Gary and Shannon and you're listening to KFI
I Am six forty the Gary and Shannon Show on
demand on the iHeartRadio app. Would it be such a
big day in financial history if out of the gate
it was just us versus China?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
You know what I mean.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
I don't think that you'd see what happened on the
stock market rally to these levels and them be that
excited about it if that's what it was from go.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Yeah, that's a good point. Well, I mean your analogy,
as much as I wanted to not buy into it,
that it was kind of like the mean girls in
junior high thing, seeing who's going to be on your
side and then galvanizing everybody on your side against the
bad girl on the other side.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Yeah, that's what's happened.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
I mean, that's effectively what's happened is that we have
Granted China does have trade relations with some of these countries,
they don't have the same at this right now today,
I mean this hour. They don't have the same power
that the United States does of renegotiating those trade agreements
that we've got.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
This all comes again.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
It was just about two hours ago President Trump announced
a ninety day pause and lowered reciprocal taxes on trading
partners that have not retaliated against us when we announced
that they would go into effect.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Well, and here's the other thing. China's not offering anything
to those other countries. Trump's like, come over, we'll do
our makeup together, right, China's didn't even pick up the phone.
So they've isolated themselves, really.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
And we have increased the tariff level.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
As of midnight DC time, the tariff on Chinese goods
was at one hundred and four percent, the President said,
because they continued to retaliate, it's up now to one
hundred and twenty five percent.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Now.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
There are a couple of the reporter questions I thought
were interesting because they're trying to pin him down on Okay, well,
what happened. What happened between this morning, which was be cool,
This is a good time to get into the market,
buy low, sell high kind of stuff. It's going to be,
you know, we need to know what we're doing, and
we need to kind of stand together and go through this.
(02:02):
What happened between then and eleven fifteen when you posted
this social truth social post that said that you were
pausing it for ninety days, and he said that that
was the very first question. His first response was he
noticed that people were getting a bit yippy, and he
used that term a couple of times, that they were
being that they were yippy because everybody's freaking out because
(02:24):
a lot of people look at the stock market as
the bellweather for their future. There are a lot of
people who are invested in not everybody, that's the thing.
It's not everybody in the entire country, but the people
who do look at the Dow Jones Industrial average every
day are starting to look at it and go, that's
four awful days, Like four of the worst days we've
(02:45):
seen since two thousand and eight.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Charles Schwabmart's disass in there at eighty seven years old.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
I mean, you've got to believe that.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
It became a cacophony of people in the financial world
calling him and being like, Okay, the enough is enough.
You want to face off with China, face off with China,
but release the rest now. I wanted to touch on
a couple things the President mentioned because this did not
come out of nowhere.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
And he was right.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
He did go after China the first time around. His
first term was marched by tariffs, particularly against China.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
But it was a different cabinet.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
Why does the agenda feel so much more full steam
ahead this time? He had cabinet members last time that
challenged his views that are.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
No longer there.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
People that he has put in place in the cabinet
largely aligned with his worldview. There's a stronger economy right
now which can withstand the issues that we've just gone through.
Economists will disagree with that, but that was something probably
that was brought to the president his entire life, his
(03:53):
entire professional life, that we've seen play out in TV
interviews going back to the seventies. He's been talking about
this passionately.
Speaker 4 (03:59):
So, I mean, he warned in.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
The eighties about all of our critical industries at the
time moving to Japan, in particular the automotive industry is
what he was most passionate about.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
In his Art of the Deal book.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
He talked about how he learned all about his belief
in what should go down with the international economy when
he was doing apartment sales at Trump Tower. I said
Middle Eastern buyers came when the oil prices rose. South
American Mexican buyers were next. When their economies were strong
and the dollar was weak. Wall Street buyers surged with
(04:36):
the stock market. Japanese when their economy improved, he wrote
at the time in his book in the eighties, they
rarely smile, and they are so serious that they don't
make doing business fun. Fortunately, they have a lot of
money to spend, and they seem to like real estate.
But he went on to say, what's unfortunate is that
for decades now they've become wealthier in large measure by
(04:59):
screwing the United States with a self serving trade policy
that our political leaders have never been able to fully
understand or counteract, which goes back to our whole deal
with people in government not being business people.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
It's why we argued for Rick Caruso, it also goes
I mean culturally, Like he's talking about the cultural differences
there in China, the culture is very much about you
must be patient for the good of the culture, you
must be patient for the good of the country. And
they're willing to go through the hardships if in the
(05:35):
end they come out on top. In the United States,
we're less at least these days, we are less willing
to bring on personal uncomfortability or hardship in order for
the rest of the country to succeed. Now there are
some people out there give everything for the country, and
(05:56):
it's more power to you. And there were times in
this country World War two, for example, when everybody had
to give up stuff in order for our war effort
to succeed and for us to save the you know,
basically save ourselves and save Europe. So there are times
when it happens, but those times fluctuate in the United
(06:17):
States much more so than they do in a place
like China. You also mentioned the former cabinet. If you
look at the Department of Treasury Secretary Treasury back then
with Steve Minuchin for the entire first term, Secretary of
Commerce Wilbur Ross, those were two guys who were willing
to say no to the president in some instances. And
I don't know if Scott Besson and Howard Lutnick are
(06:40):
two guys that are willing to do that this time around.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Yeah, I mean, it is a fascinating conversation when you
get into and I mean his just reading further into
what he said on this topic in the art of
the Deal, saying, you know, Japan at the time that
was the thing. Japan and other nations have been taking
(07:06):
advantage of the United States, he wrote, complaining the American
military was taking care of military defenses while Japan got
to spend their money to build a strong, en vibrant
economy unprecedented surpluses at the time. He went on to say,
tax these wealthy nations, not America and our huge deficits.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Reduce our taxes.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
Let America's economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending
those who can easily afford to pay us for the
defense of their freedom. That quote alone makes me wonder
where he's headed with the EU and NATO and things
like that in terms of the cost of defense and
where that leads. I mean, that's another conversation altogether.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Well, part of one of the things that he's talking
about in terms of the negotiations that will take place
is encouraging these countries to increase their own defense spending
so that we don't have to cover their ass anymore.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Right, I do have some breaking news. Oh is this.
Speaker 4 (08:03):
About Megan Markle.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Yeah, Oh, she's not gonna out loud.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
She's from She's a Canogian, She's from Canoga Park.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
Why does she seem so Canadian because.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
She was in Canadia when they filmed the suits. Ah,
but she's not Canadian. She's Californian. Ah, very Californian. And
the official comment, by the way, that she made in
terms of suggesting that we're in a recession, she said
that the selection of jams and honeys and flower sprinkles
from her new as Ever brand bring you joy during
(08:37):
potential difficult times. Her quote, officially as of Monday was,
I think during any time of recession, people still want
to find creature comforts, items that can bring them joy,
like jam in a jar that costs twenty four dollars.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Why do you know this? Why is this important to you?
Why are these words coming out of your mouth?
Speaker 2 (08:56):
I'm trying to add a little flavor and texture to.
Speaker 4 (08:59):
The with Megan Markley, we got it. Who's running to
her with a microphone wondering what she thinks about a potential.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Recession Fortune magazine?
Speaker 4 (09:07):
Why because of her brand?
Speaker 2 (09:09):
I guess?
Speaker 4 (09:11):
And why are you reading this and why are you
sharing it?
Speaker 3 (09:14):
To do something these days? I don't read good books
like you do. There's an opportunity for you to talk
about the book that you want.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Well, we don't have time now, not right now, but
you can do it on the other side.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Okay, Well we talk about what we're watching, we can
also talk about what we're reading. We are reading individuals.
I was so impressed with myself. I got the New
York Times crossword done in like record time this weekend.
And then I read the bio of the guy who
put it together and he was like an ESL guy,
total English second language.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Guy, and I was like nine year old.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Yeah, I was like perfect, That's exactly why I got it.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Gary and Shannon will continue.
Speaker 5 (09:54):
You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI
AM six forty.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
We've had a lot of breaking news today. Of course,
stock surging after President Trump said he would temporarily back
off the tariffs everything but China, at least the reciprocal
tariffs that we know I'm doubling down on China by
the way, raising him to one hundred and twenty five percent.
But stock market has been euphoric on this news, with
(10:23):
the Dow jumping something like twenty six twenty six hundred
points upwards of that NASDAK composite ten point three percent higher.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
So incredible news. But we will stay on.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Top of that.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
We're going to get a global trader on coming up
next TOOS. Spent a lot of time dealing with the markets,
and we'll talk to us about how this is going
to play out, what we can expect for tomorrow. But
we had a couple things we haven't gotten to because
of all the breaking news. Number one, your Jeopardy question.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
This is important. Women right on for one thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
A book of poetry by Rupee Kahure about the female
experience shares its name with this food and drink pair
from the Bible.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Food and drink pair.
Speaker 4 (11:19):
Yeah, think Megan.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
Merkle, Markle, what's her name whatever?
Speaker 6 (11:27):
Mark?
Speaker 4 (11:28):
Canadians milk and honey.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Oh, milk and honey. That makes sense.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
I didn't remember reading about milk and honey in the Bible,
only the water and the wine. We also got a
piece of mail that we didn't get to. Look how
cool this is from Washington State. It's a dungeness crab,
but it's three d Yeah. Did you know that the
average adult crab can weigh between two and three pounds?
Speaker 2 (11:51):
I did not.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
There you go, Gary and Shannon heard you enjoying your
male today, particularly postcards.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
So here's a fun one.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
I'm a born and raised so how girl moved to
Washington ten years ago?
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Love it?
Speaker 4 (12:02):
She halis like a hallmark.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
NWN even said it correctly. People from who've not been
to Washington don't know how to say that. Well, I mean,
there's a I know, but I'm saying there's a bunch
of people. They don't bunch of towns.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Haliskma sky coma squim.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
We're squim.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Anyway, Sherry sent us that. Thank you, Sherry.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
And then the other thing that I wanted to get
to today that I've been sitting on all week long
since Sunday.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Was White Lotus, Oh, White Lotus, go on. White Lotus
was a bunch of crap.
Speaker 5 (12:41):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
If had it not been for the brand HBO and
the brand the White Lotus, I would have bailed on
season three in like episode two. This was such a
waste of time, and the season finale proved that it
was a colossal waste of time because I watched the
whole damn thing.
Speaker 4 (12:59):
It was born. It was stupid.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
I wanted everybody on the show to die, not just
the couple that did. And it was just an awful season.
It wasn't funny, it wasn't clever, it wasn't cute, there
was nobody likable. It was just a wasted, crap, boring season.
And I may be completely alone in this.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
I don't know if this means anything. I didn't watch
a moment of it, but my wife and daughter were
talking about it, and my wife said that she thinks
that the Parker Posey character is going to get her,
is going to be continued for whatever Season four is like,
they're going to bring her back there.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
She was actually the shining light of the whole thing.
But even that she I means she's a hateable.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
You hate her.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
She's an awful character.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
She plays it really well, but what a complete waste
of time.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
The show that I know that you've just finished, that
I've been watching, We've been watching as well, of course,
is a love on the Spectrum season three.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
It just is the most lovable show.
Speaker 3 (14:00):
There's something so generically nice about people who are trying
to find relationships, regardless of whatever neurodivergent situation they find
themselves in.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
It's about there being no filter, no pretense, no boloney.
It's just I want to connect with someone in the
purest sense and it it feels really good to.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Watch it, and it's I think the biggest joy comes
from watching their close family members, yes, revel in their
the joy that their son, daughter, brother, sister, whatever is feeling.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Because in that moment, and it's so great.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
It's the depiction of real love in those family units
as the people are trying to look for love. It's
it's a wonderful, feel good show. I cannot say enough
about it.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
And it's amazing that through three seasons they've been able
to in some cases, you know they're in the first two.
There's some people you saw in the first season that
they carried over to the second. There's some people in
the second that they carried over to the third that
the even the new characters that they've introduced and aren't characters,
they're people. But the people that they've introduced are just
that likable.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
I will say that a dear friend of mine maintains
that two of the females are making it up Danny,
the one that loves sex, and the other one who's
been in the three year long relationship. I forget her name,
she says Abby.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
She maintains.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
My friend maintains that these two women, girls are making
up their autism.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
It makes it so much more fun to watch.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Watch it with that lens and just your eyes open
and it gets even better.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
All Right, we'll wrap up the show.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
We're going to finish out talking with smart people about
what's going on with these international tariffs.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
In this ninety day plot.
Speaker 5 (15:43):
You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI
AM six forty.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Well.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
President Trump earlier today said he's going to be pausing
his tariffs for ninety days on more than seventy five
different trading partners who did not retaliate in those hours
after they went into effect. A pretty I don't know
if stunning is the right word, but a pretty significant
reversal from the White House after days of what we've
seen in the markets, which has been incredibly volatile. The
(16:13):
Dow Jones Industrial Average as of right now is back
up in positive territory. It's now approaching almost three thousand
points to the positive, well over forty thousand against.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Seth Beacham is Managing director Equity Research Retail Hardlines that
web Bush Securities joins us now and Seth what can
we predict or what do we foresee as we continue
this week on Wall Street, o Arbe is.
Speaker 6 (16:38):
That volatilia will continue. This is an unprecedented period of
volatility in the stock market. The surge today at S
and P five hundred, up nine percent in the day
is just out of this world huge. So going forward,
Trump's policies remain uncertain. What happens with Paris will be
front and center. But the ninety day pause certainly is
(16:59):
a a good piece of news, and we'll be watching
very carefully how he responds with terrors in the future.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
But this doesn't necessarily end that volatility that has caused
such chaos so far.
Speaker 6 (17:13):
Right, Absolutely not. No, we'll still be waiting for a
final read on the terror situation. Right now, we're just
seeing a pause in terrors for ninety days. There are
civical tariffs that he announced last week, and in the
meantime there'll be negotiations between the US and other countries
to see if they can reduce some of those initially
(17:35):
planned terrors.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Was there any I don't want to use word panic,
It seems to I don't know, panicked.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
But what was the vibe?
Speaker 1 (17:42):
What was the feeling before the news hit in the
eleven o'clock hour, today here on the West Coast.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
Distress.
Speaker 6 (17:51):
The feeling was distress. There was a lot of distress
among investors as to when and if this was going
to end from a terror perspective, and quite honestly, if
we do see all these tarriffs implemented as planned, there's
a very good chance that our economy could fall into
or recession and a stock market can move into a
(18:11):
structural bear market. So definitely a lot of distress among investors.
And this is a sigh of relief, a major sigh
of relief.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
We're talking with Seth bashum As, Managing director of Equity
Research and Retail Hardlines web Bush Securities. Seth, can you
put it in context of the changing environment when it
comes to international trade? Obviously China is going to be
still stuck with these one hundred and twenty five percent
tariffs that the President had promised, but all these other
(18:41):
countries the White House has said would be coming to
the White House or at least in phone calls, trying
to renegotiate each of these individual trade deals. Treasury Secretary
said they would each be they would be bespoke, they'd
be unique to each situation. Is that a major reshuffling
of international trade as we know it.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Absolutely.
Speaker 6 (19:05):
What we're seeing right now is unperson precedented in the
history of international trade in terms of the level of
terrors ever proposed, and the amount of change is happening
between the US and so many different countries. So going forward,
we're expecting negotiations to eventually work in the favor of
(19:26):
the US, but hopefully at the same time not sink
the economy.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
You specialize in retail, and I'm wondering with this push
to bring manufacturing back to America, when it comes to
that industry, what you envision is it going to be
one of those things where you have to have patients.
Do anticipate people investing in retail as we see companies
(19:52):
move the manufacturing back, if indeed that's what's going to happen.
Speaker 6 (19:58):
Moving manufacturing from to the US is not an easy undertaking.
It takes years to complete, and some things are still
not appropriate to move in terms of the cost benefit analysis.
That's even with you know, fifty percent plus type terriffs.
So I think that there will be some shifts over
(20:20):
the next five years, but nothing happens quickly, and in
the meantime, companies retailers in the US. We're looking to
source products outside of China, and the countries that have
lower terriffs than China is likely to end up with.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
So I'm thinking the Indias and the Vietnams of the world,
at least initially.
Speaker 6 (20:42):
That's exactly right. Southeast Asia has been an improving and
increasing trading partner for the US, particularly for retailers, as
goods shifted out of manufactured good shifted out of China
back in the first Trump regime. So I think we'll
see continued movement in that direction, assuming that the teriff
(21:03):
rates on those countries end up being benign.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
So technically the tariffs that were in place were only
in place for what is that twelve fifteen hours or so,
did we actually see impact on brick and mortar stores here,
brick and mortar retailers here in the United States, just
even with that fifteen hours of the tariffs that were
in place.
Speaker 6 (21:28):
No, no major impact. The biggest impact is on consumer
sentiment right now when it comes to retail consumers are
holding onto their wallets, not sure what things are going
to cost in the future, especially when it comes to
discretioning items out of Asia. They're not purchasing those things
because they're going to have to afford necessities which are
(21:49):
likely to be more expensive if all these terrorfts go through.
So there has been some pullback in consumer spending, which
is impacting retail sales, but it's really transitory at this point.
What happens going for would be critical for the sector.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Do you think it was the I don't know if
you would even answer this, but do you think it
was people selling off the treasury bonds that led to
this or that that was that impact was felt overnight
after you saw China retaliate further with the bond sell off.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
That's quite possible.
Speaker 6 (22:22):
A bond sell off is definitely atypical, and the president
could be reacting to what was happening to the bond
market as well as the equity market, in addition to
trading partners coming to the table. So I think those
three factors were pretty critical in Trump's decision today to
(22:43):
put a pause on these tariffs.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Listen, I know you don't have a crystal ball. If
you did, you'd be a billionaire. What does July What
does the beginning of July look like? Do we get
a lot of these trade deals done and out of
the way before this ninety days is up, or are
we going to have to go through another period of
this uncomfortable volatility in the stock market.
Speaker 6 (23:05):
I do think that will get most of these deals done,
especially with important trading partners within the ninety day window.
That doesn't mean there won't be volatility in the market
because of the level of tariff and b the consumer
and how the economy reacts to them. So I think
that there'll be continua volatility in the market. And I'm
(23:28):
not a betting man as it relates to buying the indices,
but with the S and P five hundred back two
levels close to where it was before their ciple teriffs
were announced, I see I expect to see more volatility
of the downside before we see upside again.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Seth, thanks, thanks so much for your insight. Appreciate your time.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
We know it's a super busy day, the phone's ringing
off the hook and the like, so we appreciate the
time you spent with us.
Speaker 6 (23:53):
You bet, thank you.
Speaker 3 (23:55):
Seth Bosham there again, Managing director of Equity Research at
Retail Hardlines web Bush Secure.
Speaker 4 (24:01):
Do you know what any of those words mean?
Speaker 2 (24:03):
I know, Retail me too. That's it.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
What are your favorite animals? I like horses, and I
like zebras, and I like unicorns. But I mean unicorns
go underneath the umbrella of the mythical creatures. So I
guess if we're just sticking with creatures that could be
inside a barn, I would go with sheeps and goat
sheep and goats goats.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
I don't like pigs, picks some you don't like. I
love picks.
Speaker 4 (24:25):
Are you doing that? That's a lie?
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Like, all right, well, there you go.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
This was a very very significant day in terms of
in terms of the news that always terrupts us right
in the middle of having fun. So tomorrow we are
going to talk more about the fallout from all of it.
Feels like we've used that word a lot in the
last week. It will continue, because this is not over.
We got plenty of people plenty of feedback, people who
(24:52):
said that this is the worst thing that's going to happen,
and other people who said, hey, just just calm down,
everything's going to be fine.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
You're going to find a pin onions for whatever you're
looking for.
Speaker 4 (25:03):
It's just like the headlines.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
If you're gonna want to look for a headline that
says that Trump is ruining the world, you'll find it.
If you want a headline that says America is coming
back better and stronger than evert you'll find it.
Speaker 4 (25:13):
Happy Hunting. We'll be back tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (25:16):
We'll also talk about books tomorrow, because you didn't get
a chance to talk about your book.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
Oh yeah, okay, so the Hunter you're we'll do it tomorrow. Okay,
you just want to tell them what it is.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Yeah, I was just going to say The Hunger Game's
trilogy I burned through ten or twelve years ago. Whenever
it came out. I was soper addicted, could not stop reading.
And then Keana turned me on to the prequel, The
sun Rise and the Sunrise Okay, Sunrise on the Reaping.
I had tried the other one, the Thorn of the
Thumbthing of the Yeah, and I didn't like that. And
(25:48):
she said, this one's different, this one's just like the
previous three, and so I gave it a try and
I could not put this thing. I almost didn't come
into work today because I was so excited to read
this book. So you were reading, we are going to
read this altogether. The Sunrise of on the Repink.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
We do it Together, John Coe Belchill's coming up next.
See you Tomorrow's day Drive. Everybody six you've
Speaker 3 (26:13):
Been listening to The Gary and Shannon Show, You can
always hear us live on KFI AM six forty nine
am to one pm every Monday through Friday, and anytime
on demand on the iHeartRadio app
This is Gary and Shannon and you're listening to KFI
I Am six forty the Gary and Shannon Show on
demand on the iHeartRadio app. Would it be such a
big day in financial history if out of the gate
it was just us versus China?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
You know what I mean.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
I don't think that you'd see what happened on the
stock market rally to these levels and them be that
excited about it if that's what it was from go.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Yeah, that's a good point. Well, I mean your analogy,
as much as I wanted to not buy into it,
that it was kind of like the mean girls in
junior high thing, seeing who's going to be on your
side and then galvanizing everybody on your side against the
bad girl on the other side.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Yeah, that's what's happened.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
I mean, that's effectively what's happened is that we have
Granted China does have trade relations with some of these countries,
they don't have the same at this right now today,
I mean this hour. They don't have the same power
that the United States does of renegotiating those trade agreements
that we've got.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
This all comes again.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
It was just about two hours ago President Trump announced
a ninety day pause and lowered reciprocal taxes on trading
partners that have not retaliated against us when we announced
that they would go into effect.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Well, and here's the other thing. China's not offering anything
to those other countries. Trump's like, come over, we'll do
our makeup together, right, China's didn't even pick up the phone.
So they've isolated themselves, really.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
And we have increased the tariff level.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
As of midnight DC time, the tariff on Chinese goods
was at one hundred and four percent, the President said,
because they continued to retaliate, it's up now to one
hundred and twenty five percent.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Now.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
There are a couple of the reporter questions I thought
were interesting because they're trying to pin him down on Okay, well,
what happened. What happened between this morning, which was be cool,
This is a good time to get into the market,
buy low, sell high kind of stuff. It's going to be,
you know, we need to know what we're doing, and
we need to kind of stand together and go through this.
(02:02):
What happened between then and eleven fifteen when you posted
this social truth social post that said that you were
pausing it for ninety days, and he said that that
was the very first question. His first response was he
noticed that people were getting a bit yippy, and he
used that term a couple of times, that they were
being that they were yippy because everybody's freaking out because
(02:24):
a lot of people look at the stock market as
the bellweather for their future. There are a lot of
people who are invested in not everybody, that's the thing.
It's not everybody in the entire country, but the people
who do look at the Dow Jones Industrial average every
day are starting to look at it and go, that's
four awful days, Like four of the worst days we've
(02:45):
seen since two thousand and eight.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Charles Schwabmart's disass in there at eighty seven years old.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
I mean, you've got to believe that.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
It became a cacophony of people in the financial world
calling him and being like, Okay, the enough is enough.
You want to face off with China, face off with China,
but release the rest now. I wanted to touch on
a couple things the President mentioned because this did not
come out of nowhere.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
And he was right.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
He did go after China the first time around. His
first term was marched by tariffs, particularly against China.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
But it was a different cabinet.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
Why does the agenda feel so much more full steam
ahead this time? He had cabinet members last time that
challenged his views that are.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
No longer there.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
People that he has put in place in the cabinet
largely aligned with his worldview. There's a stronger economy right
now which can withstand the issues that we've just gone through.
Economists will disagree with that, but that was something probably
that was brought to the president his entire life, his
(03:53):
entire professional life, that we've seen play out in TV
interviews going back to the seventies. He's been talking about
this passionately.
Speaker 4 (03:59):
So, I mean, he warned in.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
The eighties about all of our critical industries at the
time moving to Japan, in particular the automotive industry is
what he was most passionate about.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
In his Art of the Deal book.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
He talked about how he learned all about his belief
in what should go down with the international economy when
he was doing apartment sales at Trump Tower. I said
Middle Eastern buyers came when the oil prices rose. South
American Mexican buyers were next. When their economies were strong
and the dollar was weak. Wall Street buyers surged with
(04:36):
the stock market. Japanese when their economy improved, he wrote
at the time in his book in the eighties, they
rarely smile, and they are so serious that they don't
make doing business fun. Fortunately, they have a lot of
money to spend, and they seem to like real estate.
But he went on to say, what's unfortunate is that
for decades now they've become wealthier in large measure by
(04:59):
screwing the United States with a self serving trade policy
that our political leaders have never been able to fully
understand or counteract, which goes back to our whole deal
with people in government not being business people.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
It's why we argued for Rick Caruso, it also goes
I mean culturally, Like he's talking about the cultural differences
there in China, the culture is very much about you
must be patient for the good of the culture, you
must be patient for the good of the country. And
they're willing to go through the hardships if in the
(05:35):
end they come out on top. In the United States,
we're less at least these days, we are less willing
to bring on personal uncomfortability or hardship in order for
the rest of the country to succeed. Now there are
some people out there give everything for the country, and
(05:56):
it's more power to you. And there were times in
this country World War two, for example, when everybody had
to give up stuff in order for our war effort
to succeed and for us to save the you know,
basically save ourselves and save Europe. So there are times
when it happens, but those times fluctuate in the United
(06:17):
States much more so than they do in a place
like China. You also mentioned the former cabinet. If you
look at the Department of Treasury Secretary Treasury back then
with Steve Minuchin for the entire first term, Secretary of
Commerce Wilbur Ross, those were two guys who were willing
to say no to the president in some instances. And
I don't know if Scott Besson and Howard Lutnick are
(06:40):
two guys that are willing to do that this time around.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Yeah, I mean, it is a fascinating conversation when you
get into and I mean his just reading further into
what he said on this topic in the art of
the Deal, saying, you know, Japan at the time that
was the thing. Japan and other nations have been taking
(07:06):
advantage of the United States, he wrote, complaining the American
military was taking care of military defenses while Japan got
to spend their money to build a strong, en vibrant
economy unprecedented surpluses at the time. He went on to say,
tax these wealthy nations, not America and our huge deficits.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Reduce our taxes.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
Let America's economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending
those who can easily afford to pay us for the
defense of their freedom. That quote alone makes me wonder
where he's headed with the EU and NATO and things
like that in terms of the cost of defense and
where that leads. I mean, that's another conversation altogether.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Well, part of one of the things that he's talking
about in terms of the negotiations that will take place
is encouraging these countries to increase their own defense spending
so that we don't have to cover their ass anymore.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Right, I do have some breaking news. Oh is this.
Speaker 4 (08:03):
About Megan Markle.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Yeah, Oh, she's not gonna out loud.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
She's from She's a Canogian, She's from Canoga Park.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
Why does she seem so Canadian because.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
She was in Canadia when they filmed the suits. Ah,
but she's not Canadian. She's Californian. Ah, very Californian. And
the official comment, by the way, that she made in
terms of suggesting that we're in a recession, she said
that the selection of jams and honeys and flower sprinkles
from her new as Ever brand bring you joy during
(08:37):
potential difficult times. Her quote, officially as of Monday was,
I think during any time of recession, people still want
to find creature comforts, items that can bring them joy,
like jam in a jar that costs twenty four dollars.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Why do you know this? Why is this important to you?
Why are these words coming out of your mouth?
Speaker 2 (08:56):
I'm trying to add a little flavor and texture to.
Speaker 4 (08:59):
The with Megan Markley, we got it. Who's running to
her with a microphone wondering what she thinks about a potential.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Recession Fortune magazine?
Speaker 4 (09:07):
Why because of her brand?
Speaker 2 (09:09):
I guess?
Speaker 4 (09:11):
And why are you reading this and why are you
sharing it?
Speaker 3 (09:14):
To do something these days? I don't read good books
like you do. There's an opportunity for you to talk
about the book that you want.
Speaker 4 (09:25):
Well, we don't have time now, not right now, but
you can do it on the other side.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Okay, Well we talk about what we're watching, we can
also talk about what we're reading. We are reading individuals.
I was so impressed with myself. I got the New
York Times crossword done in like record time this weekend.
And then I read the bio of the guy who
put it together and he was like an ESL guy,
total English second language.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Guy, and I was like nine year old.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Yeah, I was like perfect, That's exactly why I got it.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Gary and Shannon will continue.
Speaker 5 (09:54):
You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI
AM six forty.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
We've had a lot of breaking news today. Of course,
stock surging after President Trump said he would temporarily back
off the tariffs everything but China, at least the reciprocal
tariffs that we know I'm doubling down on China by
the way, raising him to one hundred and twenty five percent.
But stock market has been euphoric on this news, with
(10:23):
the Dow jumping something like twenty six twenty six hundred
points upwards of that NASDAK composite ten point three percent higher.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
So incredible news. But we will stay on.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Top of that.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
We're going to get a global trader on coming up
next TOOS. Spent a lot of time dealing with the markets,
and we'll talk to us about how this is going
to play out, what we can expect for tomorrow. But
we had a couple things we haven't gotten to because
of all the breaking news. Number one, your Jeopardy question.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
This is important. Women right on for one thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
A book of poetry by Rupee Kahure about the female
experience shares its name with this food and drink pair
from the Bible.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
Food and drink pair.
Speaker 4 (11:19):
Yeah, think Megan.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
Merkle, Markle, what's her name whatever?
Speaker 6 (11:27):
Mark?
Speaker 4 (11:28):
Canadians milk and honey.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Oh, milk and honey. That makes sense.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
I didn't remember reading about milk and honey in the Bible,
only the water and the wine. We also got a
piece of mail that we didn't get to. Look how
cool this is from Washington State. It's a dungeness crab,
but it's three d Yeah. Did you know that the
average adult crab can weigh between two and three pounds?
Speaker 2 (11:51):
I did not.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
There you go, Gary and Shannon heard you enjoying your
male today, particularly postcards.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
So here's a fun one.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
I'm a born and raised so how girl moved to
Washington ten years ago?
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Love it?
Speaker 4 (12:02):
She halis like a hallmark.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
NWN even said it correctly. People from who've not been
to Washington don't know how to say that. Well, I mean,
there's a I know, but I'm saying there's a bunch
of people. They don't bunch of towns.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Haliskma sky coma squim.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
We're squim.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Anyway, Sherry sent us that. Thank you, Sherry.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
And then the other thing that I wanted to get
to today that I've been sitting on all week long
since Sunday.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Was White Lotus, Oh, White Lotus, go on. White Lotus
was a bunch of crap.
Speaker 5 (12:41):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
If had it not been for the brand HBO and
the brand the White Lotus, I would have bailed on
season three in like episode two. This was such a
waste of time, and the season finale proved that it
was a colossal waste of time because I watched the
whole damn thing.
Speaker 4 (12:59):
It was born. It was stupid.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
I wanted everybody on the show to die, not just
the couple that did. And it was just an awful season.
It wasn't funny, it wasn't clever, it wasn't cute, there
was nobody likable. It was just a wasted, crap, boring season.
And I may be completely alone in this.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
I don't know if this means anything. I didn't watch
a moment of it, but my wife and daughter were
talking about it, and my wife said that she thinks
that the Parker Posey character is going to get her,
is going to be continued for whatever Season four is like,
they're going to bring her back there.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
She was actually the shining light of the whole thing.
But even that she I means she's a hateable.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
You hate her.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
She's an awful character.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
She plays it really well, but what a complete waste
of time.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
The show that I know that you've just finished, that
I've been watching, We've been watching as well, of course,
is a love on the Spectrum season three.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
It just is the most lovable show.
Speaker 3 (14:00):
There's something so generically nice about people who are trying
to find relationships, regardless of whatever neurodivergent situation they find
themselves in.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
It's about there being no filter, no pretense, no boloney.
It's just I want to connect with someone in the
purest sense and it it feels really good to.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Watch it, and it's I think the biggest joy comes
from watching their close family members, yes, revel in their
the joy that their son, daughter, brother, sister, whatever is feeling.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Because in that moment, and it's so great.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
It's the depiction of real love in those family units
as the people are trying to look for love. It's
it's a wonderful, feel good show. I cannot say enough
about it.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
And it's amazing that through three seasons they've been able
to in some cases, you know they're in the first two.
There's some people you saw in the first season that
they carried over to the second. There's some people in
the second that they carried over to the third that
the even the new characters that they've introduced and aren't characters,
they're people. But the people that they've introduced are just
that likable.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
I will say that a dear friend of mine maintains
that two of the females are making it up Danny,
the one that loves sex, and the other one who's
been in the three year long relationship. I forget her name,
she says Abby.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
She maintains.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
My friend maintains that these two women, girls are making
up their autism.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
It makes it so much more fun to watch.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Watch it with that lens and just your eyes open
and it gets even better.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
All Right, we'll wrap up the show.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
We're going to finish out talking with smart people about
what's going on with these international tariffs.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
In this ninety day plot.
Speaker 5 (15:43):
You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI
AM six forty.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Well.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
President Trump earlier today said he's going to be pausing
his tariffs for ninety days on more than seventy five
different trading partners who did not retaliate in those hours
after they went into effect. A pretty I don't know
if stunning is the right word, but a pretty significant
reversal from the White House after days of what we've
seen in the markets, which has been incredibly volatile. The
(16:13):
Dow Jones Industrial Average as of right now is back
up in positive territory. It's now approaching almost three thousand
points to the positive, well over forty thousand against.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Seth Beacham is Managing director Equity Research Retail Hardlines that
web Bush Securities joins us now and Seth what can
we predict or what do we foresee as we continue
this week on Wall Street, o Arbe is.
Speaker 6 (16:38):
That volatilia will continue. This is an unprecedented period of
volatility in the stock market. The surge today at S
and P five hundred, up nine percent in the day
is just out of this world huge. So going forward,
Trump's policies remain uncertain. What happens with Paris will be
front and center. But the ninety day pause certainly is
(16:59):
a a good piece of news, and we'll be watching
very carefully how he responds with terrors in the future.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
But this doesn't necessarily end that volatility that has caused
such chaos so far.
Speaker 6 (17:13):
Right, Absolutely not. No, we'll still be waiting for a
final read on the terror situation. Right now, we're just
seeing a pause in terrors for ninety days. There are
civical tariffs that he announced last week, and in the
meantime there'll be negotiations between the US and other countries
to see if they can reduce some of those initially
(17:35):
planned terrors.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Was there any I don't want to use word panic,
It seems to I don't know, panicked.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
But what was the vibe?
Speaker 1 (17:42):
What was the feeling before the news hit in the
eleven o'clock hour, today here on the West Coast.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
Distress.
Speaker 6 (17:51):
The feeling was distress. There was a lot of distress
among investors as to when and if this was going
to end from a terror perspective, and quite honestly, if
we do see all these tarriffs implemented as planned, there's
a very good chance that our economy could fall into
or recession and a stock market can move into a
(18:11):
structural bear market. So definitely a lot of distress among investors.
And this is a sigh of relief, a major sigh
of relief.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
We're talking with Seth bashum As, Managing director of Equity
Research and Retail Hardlines web Bush Securities. Seth, can you
put it in context of the changing environment when it
comes to international trade? Obviously China is going to be
still stuck with these one hundred and twenty five percent
tariffs that the President had promised, but all these other
(18:41):
countries the White House has said would be coming to
the White House or at least in phone calls, trying
to renegotiate each of these individual trade deals. Treasury Secretary
said they would each be they would be bespoke, they'd
be unique to each situation. Is that a major reshuffling
of international trade as we know it.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Absolutely.
Speaker 6 (19:05):
What we're seeing right now is unperson precedented in the
history of international trade in terms of the level of
terrors ever proposed, and the amount of change is happening
between the US and so many different countries. So going forward,
we're expecting negotiations to eventually work in the favor of
(19:26):
the US, but hopefully at the same time not sink
the economy.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
You specialize in retail, and I'm wondering with this push
to bring manufacturing back to America, when it comes to
that industry, what you envision is it going to be
one of those things where you have to have patients.
Do anticipate people investing in retail as we see companies
(19:52):
move the manufacturing back, if indeed that's what's going to happen.
Speaker 6 (19:58):
Moving manufacturing from to the US is not an easy undertaking.
It takes years to complete, and some things are still
not appropriate to move in terms of the cost benefit analysis.
That's even with you know, fifty percent plus type terriffs.
So I think that there will be some shifts over
(20:20):
the next five years, but nothing happens quickly, and in
the meantime, companies retailers in the US. We're looking to
source products outside of China, and the countries that have
lower terriffs than China is likely to end up with.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
So I'm thinking the Indias and the Vietnams of the world,
at least initially.
Speaker 6 (20:42):
That's exactly right. Southeast Asia has been an improving and
increasing trading partner for the US, particularly for retailers, as
goods shifted out of manufactured good shifted out of China
back in the first Trump regime. So I think we'll
see continued movement in that direction, assuming that the teriff
(21:03):
rates on those countries end up being benign.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
So technically the tariffs that were in place were only
in place for what is that twelve fifteen hours or so,
did we actually see impact on brick and mortar stores here,
brick and mortar retailers here in the United States, just
even with that fifteen hours of the tariffs that were
in place.
Speaker 6 (21:28):
No, no major impact. The biggest impact is on consumer
sentiment right now when it comes to retail consumers are
holding onto their wallets, not sure what things are going
to cost in the future, especially when it comes to
discretioning items out of Asia. They're not purchasing those things
because they're going to have to afford necessities which are
(21:49):
likely to be more expensive if all these terrorfts go through.
So there has been some pullback in consumer spending, which
is impacting retail sales, but it's really transitory at this point.
What happens going for would be critical for the sector.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Do you think it was the I don't know if
you would even answer this, but do you think it
was people selling off the treasury bonds that led to
this or that that was that impact was felt overnight
after you saw China retaliate further with the bond sell off.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
That's quite possible.
Speaker 6 (22:22):
A bond sell off is definitely atypical, and the president
could be reacting to what was happening to the bond
market as well as the equity market, in addition to
trading partners coming to the table. So I think those
three factors were pretty critical in Trump's decision today to
(22:43):
put a pause on these tariffs.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Listen, I know you don't have a crystal ball. If
you did, you'd be a billionaire. What does July What
does the beginning of July look like? Do we get
a lot of these trade deals done and out of
the way before this ninety days is up, or are
we going to have to go through another period of
this uncomfortable volatility in the stock market.
Speaker 6 (23:05):
I do think that will get most of these deals done,
especially with important trading partners within the ninety day window.
That doesn't mean there won't be volatility in the market
because of the level of tariff and b the consumer
and how the economy reacts to them. So I think
that there'll be continua volatility in the market. And I'm
(23:28):
not a betting man as it relates to buying the indices,
but with the S and P five hundred back two
levels close to where it was before their ciple teriffs
were announced, I see I expect to see more volatility
of the downside before we see upside again.
Speaker 4 (23:43):
Seth, thanks, thanks so much for your insight. Appreciate your time.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
We know it's a super busy day, the phone's ringing
off the hook and the like, so we appreciate the
time you spent with us.
Speaker 6 (23:53):
You bet, thank you.
Speaker 3 (23:55):
Seth Bosham there again, Managing director of Equity Research at
Retail Hardlines web Bush Secure.
Speaker 4 (24:01):
Do you know what any of those words mean?
Speaker 2 (24:03):
I know, Retail me too. That's it.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
What are your favorite animals? I like horses, and I
like zebras, and I like unicorns. But I mean unicorns
go underneath the umbrella of the mythical creatures. So I
guess if we're just sticking with creatures that could be
inside a barn, I would go with sheeps and goat
sheep and goats goats.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
I don't like pigs, picks some you don't like. I
love picks.
Speaker 4 (24:25):
Are you doing that? That's a lie?
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Like, all right, well, there you go.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
This was a very very significant day in terms of
in terms of the news that always terrupts us right
in the middle of having fun. So tomorrow we are
going to talk more about the fallout from all of it.
Feels like we've used that word a lot in the
last week. It will continue, because this is not over.
We got plenty of people plenty of feedback, people who
(24:52):
said that this is the worst thing that's going to happen,
and other people who said, hey, just just calm down,
everything's going to be fine.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
You're going to find a pin onions for whatever you're
looking for.
Speaker 4 (25:03):
It's just like the headlines.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
If you're gonna want to look for a headline that
says that Trump is ruining the world, you'll find it.
If you want a headline that says America is coming
back better and stronger than evert you'll find it.
Speaker 4 (25:13):
Happy Hunting. We'll be back tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (25:16):
We'll also talk about books tomorrow, because you didn't get
a chance to talk about your book.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
Oh yeah, okay, so the Hunter you're we'll do it tomorrow. Okay,
you just want to tell them what it is.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Yeah, I was just going to say The Hunger Game's
trilogy I burned through ten or twelve years ago. Whenever
it came out. I was soper addicted, could not stop reading.
And then Keana turned me on to the prequel, The
sun Rise and the Sunrise Okay, Sunrise on the Reaping.
I had tried the other one, the Thorn of the
Thumbthing of the Yeah, and I didn't like that. And
(25:48):
she said, this one's different, this one's just like the
previous three, and so I gave it a try and
I could not put this thing. I almost didn't come
into work today because I was so excited to read
this book. So you were reading, we are going to
read this altogether. The Sunrise of on the Repink.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
We do it Together, John Coe Belchill's coming up next.
See you Tomorrow's day Drive. Everybody six you've
Speaker 3 (26:13):
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