November 2, 2024 • 12 mins
There's only a few days remaining until the US election and the race is still neck-and-neck.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are holding duelling campaigns in the battleground states as the pair compete for the key to the White House.
Former US Ambassador to New Zealand Mark Gilbert says everyone was expecting a tight race ahead of the big day.
"Polls have been this tight before, but I don't think the race has been this tight before. Everybody thought the Mitt Romney-Barack Obama race in 2012 was this close - but internally, we have ourselves winning 10 of the 12 battleground states."
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
A huge week coming up in the US as Americans
head to the voting booths. The US election will be
held this Wednesday, New Zealand Time. The polls are showing
an incredibly tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
To talk us through the week ahead, I'm joined by
former US Ambassador to New Zealand, Mark Gilbert. Thanks so
much for your time. Make good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Now my pleasure. Good morning, Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
The polls are, as I mentioned, incredibly tight. Did you
expect the campaign to be this close?
Speaker 3 (00:44):
I believe everybody did. It's been a post race. The
polls have been pretty locked in for the last month
or so. But the good news is Kamala Harris is
in contention in all seven of the battleground states, and
we believe she has a slight lead in all seven
(01:06):
of them, and we hope our ground game and late
undecided voters breaking our way will be what she needs
to win the election.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Have you seen a race this type before?
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Pauls had been this type before, but I don't think
the race was this type before. Everybody thought the Mick
Romney Barack Obama race in twenty twelve was this close,
But internally we had ourselves winning at what at that
time ten of the twelve battleground states. One we thought
(01:43):
would be close, and back then we knew we were
going to lose the state in North Carolina. But we
feel we're in a good place in the seventh states,
and those are the seven states that count, and we
believe we're going to prevail. An election day time.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Is very precious. Which candidate do you think has used
at beisher over the last week?
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Interestingly, former President Trump has traveled to a number of
states that he cannot possibly win. There's some people who
believe he just wanted to go there for large crowds.
There are others who believe that he went there to
help with House. Our House of Representatives, all four hundred
and thirty five members are up for election. But Kamala
(02:31):
Harris has been in all the battleground states and one
big advantage our campaign as over his. He draws good
sized crowds to his events. Jd Vance, his running mate,
you know, much smaller crowds, but he's traveling the country.
He advantaged Kamala Haara Eris has is not only she
(02:53):
and Governor Tim Walls out campaigning, but she has both Obama's,
both Biden's, both Clinton's out campaigning, So an extra six
quality surrogates out hitting the pavement for.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Her do the next couple of days count mark? Are
people still making up their minds? Is there something that
one of these candidates could do to sort of separate
themselves in how closely this rice is?
Speaker 3 (03:25):
I think we're pretty locked in. We have seen movement
just in the past week. You may have seen about
the rally that former President Trump that is Madison Square
Garden where a comedian really insulted the Puerto Rican community,
and there have been major Puerto Rican elected officials, entertainers
(03:50):
who have come out and we've seen a dramatic swing
in the polls just in a few days in that
community and in many of the swing states. I'm currently
working in Pennsylvania. There are more than four hundred thousand
Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, and in my former home state
of Florida there are one point two million Puerto Ricans.
(04:11):
And we have Bill Clinton going to Orlando, Florida for US,
which is where the largest Puerto Rican community is in
Florida to help drive out the vote there.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Harris's campaign has been about ninety days, which is normally
unheard of. You know, a candidate would be preparing for
this election for you know, a good year or two.
How well do you think she's done.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
I think she's done great. She's actually run at a
fall less campaign over the last three months, and I
think there's been a big benefit for the campaign being
short for her. The only negative is that when we're
out talking to undecided voters, you know, we run across
a lot of people saying, oh, I can't vote for
(04:58):
Donald Trump again, but I don't know her yet. So
it's really been trying to introduce her to voters all
around the country, and I think she's doing a very
good job at.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Yeah, that was going to be my next question. Has
she been able to define herself enough?
Speaker 3 (05:18):
I think she really has. She gave a speech on
the Ellipse, which is part of the White House Grounds,
same place Donald Trump gave his speech on January sixth,
back in twenty twenty one. More than seventy five thousand
people turned out to hear her speak. Ten two thousands
(05:40):
were turned away went back home to watch it. But
when I'm out talking to undecided voters, I tell them
to watch that speech. And I think what you saw
there was someone defining what her administration would look like,
that she would bring Republicans into her cabinet and part
(06:02):
of her administration. And I think for those people who
who are looking for bipartisanship, somebody who's going to try
to bring the country back together versus dividing it in hat,
I think they would have been very impressed by her speech.
And I thought it was pitch perfect, And I think
that will also help convince a number of voters to
(06:24):
come her way.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Make you're close to Kamala and Joe Biden, what is
the feeling in the Democratic camp.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
We're cautiously optimistic. We believe that we're in a very
good place. We're out doing the work. And one other
thing that I didn't mention earlier, which I think is
playing really well in certain communities that historically don't vote
for Democrats, is we've seen a number of former military
(06:57):
officials who normally do not participate in politics at all.
They say bipartisan, they don't talk about politics. But Donald
Trump's former Defense secretary chief of Staff, who is a
four star Marine general, national two National Security Advisors, Chairman
(07:22):
of the Joint Chiefs, plus the generals who ran special
operations and Afghanistan for US and Admiral mcgraven who is
a four star admiral who was in charge of our
special forces who led the raid on Osama Ben Laden
all came out within the last two weeks talking about
(07:43):
how dangerous a person Donald Trump is and why he
should be nowhere near the Oval office. So I think
that will play very well in certain communities. That was
one of the things that the Vice President has also
talked about on the campaign trail.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Mike Trump's campaign style is very similar to the style
that we've said him used in the past, and he's
really been trying to appeal to young meen. Was that
a good idea to young mean vote.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
I think being in New Zealand, remembering I was there
during the twenty sixteen campaign, we don't see the rhetoric
and the campaigning every single day you get clips, you know,
on the news. His campaigning has been very different, much
(08:41):
more aggressive, much more erratic, much more divisive than it
was in sixteen or in twenty. He's making this about
being a base election, really trying to appeal to his
base and actually turning away a lot of Republicans who
may have come home to them, such as Nicky Bailey,
(09:04):
Republicans or Republicans that you didn't favor him being the
candidate but would still come home. And I mean, we're
going to know on Tuesday, but to me, it feels
like he's turning more people away than he's bringing in.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
Mike, this is a campaign where we've seen two assassination
attempts and a third thought it on Donald Trump. Is
the concern around security and safety this week? Are both
camps being extra vigilant.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
The US Secret Service are in charge of that. I
think that security has been beefed up. As you know,
I served during the Obama administration and the number of
threats during his administration rose to an all time high,
(09:59):
but believe it or not, during the Trump administration, those
numbers more than double. It has been on the rise here,
you know, political violence here in the United States, and
I believe that comes from the terrible rhetoric that Donald
Trump and many people in the Republican Party are using.
(10:20):
Hopefully this Tuesday, Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump beats Trump ism,
and we can get back to having a two party
system that works together on behalf of the United States.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
And how quickly do you think we're going to have
a result.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
It's hard to tell, you know, when you have polls
swinging at the very end, which is something I don't
focus on, but we've seen some dramatic swings. And as
a matter of fact, in two and a half hours,
the poll out of Iowa will come out about what's
happening on the ground in Iowa. And we've seen in
(11:00):
a lot of these Midwest states that Trump may have
won by fifteen twenty points in twenty twenty, then supposedly
these have closed to five six eight point races. Not
that Kamala Harris would win, the fact that it's so
dramatically moved in her fashion that we may have some
(11:21):
surprises on election night. The states to focus on early. Virginia.
Virginia closes early. If they make an announcement right after
the polls close, that's a very positive sign for her.
If they come out Florida, although Florida is in two
time zones because of how big it is, but if
(11:43):
they come out in Florida and say the election's too
close to call. That's also a very good sign for
Kamala Harris. So we'll see how things play out on
election night. And you know, because of state like Pennsylvania,
whose Republican legislature changed how mail in ballots or counted,
(12:06):
they don't start counting them to the day of. It's
different than many other states where when the ballots come in,
they're loaded into the system and when the polls close,
you push a button you know the results. So Pennsylvania
has intentionally flowed the process. And because that's Pennsylvania is
the most important battleground state this time, that could take
(12:27):
some time to get a result.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Mike, really appreciate your time this morning. Thank you. That
was US Investador to New Zealand Mark Gilbert.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
For more from the Sunday session with friend Jessica Rutken.
Listen live to News Talks it Be from nine am Sunday,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
A huge week coming up in the US as Americans
head to the voting booths. The US election will be
held this Wednesday, New Zealand Time. The polls are showing
an incredibly tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
To talk us through the week ahead, I'm joined by
former US Ambassador to New Zealand, Mark Gilbert. Thanks so
much for your time. Make good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Now my pleasure. Good morning, Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
The polls are, as I mentioned, incredibly tight. Did you
expect the campaign to be this close?
Speaker 3 (00:44):
I believe everybody did. It's been a post race. The
polls have been pretty locked in for the last month
or so. But the good news is Kamala Harris is
in contention in all seven of the battleground states, and
we believe she has a slight lead in all seven
(01:06):
of them, and we hope our ground game and late
undecided voters breaking our way will be what she needs
to win the election.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Have you seen a race this type before?
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Pauls had been this type before, but I don't think
the race was this type before. Everybody thought the Mick
Romney Barack Obama race in twenty twelve was this close,
But internally we had ourselves winning at what at that
time ten of the twelve battleground states. One we thought
(01:43):
would be close, and back then we knew we were
going to lose the state in North Carolina. But we
feel we're in a good place in the seventh states,
and those are the seven states that count, and we
believe we're going to prevail. An election day time.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Is very precious. Which candidate do you think has used
at beisher over the last week?
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Interestingly, former President Trump has traveled to a number of
states that he cannot possibly win. There's some people who
believe he just wanted to go there for large crowds.
There are others who believe that he went there to
help with House. Our House of Representatives, all four hundred
and thirty five members are up for election. But Kamala
(02:31):
Harris has been in all the battleground states and one
big advantage our campaign as over his. He draws good
sized crowds to his events. Jd Vance, his running mate,
you know, much smaller crowds, but he's traveling the country.
He advantaged Kamala Haara Eris has is not only she
(02:53):
and Governor Tim Walls out campaigning, but she has both Obama's,
both Biden's, both Clinton's out campaigning, So an extra six
quality surrogates out hitting the pavement for.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Her do the next couple of days count mark? Are
people still making up their minds? Is there something that
one of these candidates could do to sort of separate
themselves in how closely this rice is?
Speaker 3 (03:25):
I think we're pretty locked in. We have seen movement
just in the past week. You may have seen about
the rally that former President Trump that is Madison Square
Garden where a comedian really insulted the Puerto Rican community,
and there have been major Puerto Rican elected officials, entertainers
(03:50):
who have come out and we've seen a dramatic swing
in the polls just in a few days in that
community and in many of the swing states. I'm currently
working in Pennsylvania. There are more than four hundred thousand
Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, and in my former home state
of Florida there are one point two million Puerto Ricans.
(04:11):
And we have Bill Clinton going to Orlando, Florida for US,
which is where the largest Puerto Rican community is in
Florida to help drive out the vote there.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Harris's campaign has been about ninety days, which is normally
unheard of. You know, a candidate would be preparing for
this election for you know, a good year or two.
How well do you think she's done.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
I think she's done great. She's actually run at a
fall less campaign over the last three months, and I
think there's been a big benefit for the campaign being
short for her. The only negative is that when we're
out talking to undecided voters, you know, we run across
a lot of people saying, oh, I can't vote for
(04:58):
Donald Trump again, but I don't know her yet. So
it's really been trying to introduce her to voters all
around the country, and I think she's doing a very
good job at.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
Yeah, that was going to be my next question. Has
she been able to define herself enough?
Speaker 3 (05:18):
I think she really has. She gave a speech on
the Ellipse, which is part of the White House Grounds,
same place Donald Trump gave his speech on January sixth,
back in twenty twenty one. More than seventy five thousand
people turned out to hear her speak. Ten two thousands
(05:40):
were turned away went back home to watch it. But
when I'm out talking to undecided voters, I tell them
to watch that speech. And I think what you saw
there was someone defining what her administration would look like,
that she would bring Republicans into her cabinet and part
(06:02):
of her administration. And I think for those people who
who are looking for bipartisanship, somebody who's going to try
to bring the country back together versus dividing it in hat,
I think they would have been very impressed by her speech.
And I thought it was pitch perfect, And I think
that will also help convince a number of voters to
(06:24):
come her way.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Make you're close to Kamala and Joe Biden, what is
the feeling in the Democratic camp.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
We're cautiously optimistic. We believe that we're in a very
good place. We're out doing the work. And one other
thing that I didn't mention earlier, which I think is
playing really well in certain communities that historically don't vote
for Democrats, is we've seen a number of former military
(06:57):
officials who normally do not participate in politics at all.
They say bipartisan, they don't talk about politics. But Donald
Trump's former Defense secretary chief of Staff, who is a
four star Marine general, national two National Security Advisors, Chairman
(07:22):
of the Joint Chiefs, plus the generals who ran special
operations and Afghanistan for US and Admiral mcgraven who is
a four star admiral who was in charge of our
special forces who led the raid on Osama Ben Laden
all came out within the last two weeks talking about
(07:43):
how dangerous a person Donald Trump is and why he
should be nowhere near the Oval office. So I think
that will play very well in certain communities. That was
one of the things that the Vice President has also
talked about on the campaign trail.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Mike Trump's campaign style is very similar to the style
that we've said him used in the past, and he's
really been trying to appeal to young meen. Was that
a good idea to young mean vote.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
I think being in New Zealand, remembering I was there
during the twenty sixteen campaign, we don't see the rhetoric
and the campaigning every single day you get clips, you know,
on the news. His campaigning has been very different, much
(08:41):
more aggressive, much more erratic, much more divisive than it
was in sixteen or in twenty. He's making this about
being a base election, really trying to appeal to his
base and actually turning away a lot of Republicans who
may have come home to them, such as Nicky Bailey,
(09:04):
Republicans or Republicans that you didn't favor him being the
candidate but would still come home. And I mean, we're
going to know on Tuesday, but to me, it feels
like he's turning more people away than he's bringing in.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
Mike, this is a campaign where we've seen two assassination
attempts and a third thought it on Donald Trump. Is
the concern around security and safety this week? Are both
camps being extra vigilant.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
The US Secret Service are in charge of that. I
think that security has been beefed up. As you know,
I served during the Obama administration and the number of
threats during his administration rose to an all time high,
(09:59):
but believe it or not, during the Trump administration, those
numbers more than double. It has been on the rise here,
you know, political violence here in the United States, and
I believe that comes from the terrible rhetoric that Donald
Trump and many people in the Republican Party are using.
(10:20):
Hopefully this Tuesday, Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump beats Trump ism,
and we can get back to having a two party
system that works together on behalf of the United States.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
And how quickly do you think we're going to have
a result.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
It's hard to tell, you know, when you have polls
swinging at the very end, which is something I don't
focus on, but we've seen some dramatic swings. And as
a matter of fact, in two and a half hours,
the poll out of Iowa will come out about what's
happening on the ground in Iowa. And we've seen in
(11:00):
a lot of these Midwest states that Trump may have
won by fifteen twenty points in twenty twenty, then supposedly
these have closed to five six eight point races. Not
that Kamala Harris would win, the fact that it's so
dramatically moved in her fashion that we may have some
(11:21):
surprises on election night. The states to focus on early. Virginia.
Virginia closes early. If they make an announcement right after
the polls close, that's a very positive sign for her.
If they come out Florida, although Florida is in two
time zones because of how big it is, but if
(11:43):
they come out in Florida and say the election's too
close to call. That's also a very good sign for
Kamala Harris. So we'll see how things play out on
election night. And you know, because of state like Pennsylvania,
whose Republican legislature changed how mail in ballots or counted,
(12:06):
they don't start counting them to the day of. It's
different than many other states where when the ballots come in,
they're loaded into the system and when the polls close,
you push a button you know the results. So Pennsylvania
has intentionally flowed the process. And because that's Pennsylvania is
the most important battleground state this time, that could take
(12:27):
some time to get a result.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Mike, really appreciate your time this morning. Thank you. That
was US Investador to New Zealand Mark Gilbert.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
For more from the Sunday session with friend Jessica Rutken.
Listen live to News Talks it Be from nine am Sunday,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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