Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News Talks, EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
And Times Talk Local politics and joining me as New
Zealand Herald Deputy Political editor Thomas Cocklan. Good morning, Thomas,
good morning. Good to have you back with us. Are
two scene setters this week from Luxon and Hipkins. Luxon
State of the Nation Hipkins address at the Labor Caucus Retreat.
Both quite different vibes. One in a suit, one in
a pair of jandles.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Yes, so I was. I didn't make it up too
awten for Luckston State of the Nation's abby, but I
did get the farmers from north to see Chris Hopkins
and his jandles and it was certainly, certainly quite a sight.
But yes, I imagine Hopkins. We'll do a more formal sceneca
a bit later and later in the year. But last
and certainly got Tanus wagging about this, this idea of
(00:55):
growing for growth this year and improving our economy and
social services by begging it in. More economic growth, a
bit more foreign investment through the door, and as that
economy starts to grow, you you get a bit more,
a bit more text revenue Treasury said last year it
if we increase the increase the economic growth rate by
(01:16):
a single percentage point, which would be that'd be a
bit of a miracle. That's probably not going to happen.
But to give you an idea, if we increase the
economy economic growth by a finished point above what we're
forecasting now, it makes for one point two billion dollars
with a text revenue. So it's not not to be
sniffed at. So so you can see why they are
they are looking at it, whether or not they'll be successful.
(01:38):
These things take time and they're quite difficult. Everyone's trying
to grow their economies a bit faster at the moment,
and everyone's having trouble.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
I suppose wardrobe choices aside. If you were going to
compete the two speeches, you know, you relax and did
turn up and actually throw some ideas out, throw some
attitude out, throw some kind of you know, sort of
a plan. You know, he's mentioning mining and various other things.
And this whole idea about saying yes and not saying no,
not finding reasons why we can can't do things, but
(02:07):
finding reasons why we should do things. And how would
you compare that to you know, Hipkins address and him
looking forward to twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Yeah, Labour is certainly keeping its cards close to its chest,
which is which has obviously worked so far. They are
just ahead of National and the most recent Taxpayers Union
Caurier poll, but they are they have yet to sort
of come up with a policy platform for the next election.
You know, I don't really judge them too harshly on
that because because it's still a couple of years away
(02:42):
and parties tend to come out with policies closer to
the election. But certainly you'd be expecting this year to
have a few more concrete policy ideas. And obviously as
you come out with those policy ideas, which which labor
you know doesn't really have at the moment, then you
might see see some of that support either way, because
you know, it's it's you. You. You create policies and
(03:06):
they draw some people to You've got those same policies
push some people away. And as I said before, the
government's trying to get some get some money through the
door through economic growth and and labor for labor. That
they are pretty on the sense about some of those ideas.
They are shued in a slightly more restrictive foreign investment regime.
They're very they're very on the sense about mining, not
(03:28):
totally against mining, but they're against some some mining fossil
fuels in particular. And then of course there's this text
policy which will probably get some you know, we'll get
some updates on that throughout the year. I'm not sure
it will be released, but that that will obviously be
you know, planning a flag in the in the in
the sand, and and that will that will potentially put
(03:50):
some people off and attract other people. But that that's
the real big core for labor is where they land
on that text policy. And you know, we'll be waiting
with data.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Bread could could you argue at the.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Moment, when you look at those poles and those results,
it's not anything to do with what Labour's doing, it's
actually to do with what National is doing.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Yes, I think, I think that is that's almost essentially
exactly what's what's happening over a long period of time.
I think the most important leading indicator of where party
party political polling is going as right track, wrong track,
and how people feel about the economy. We're in a
(04:26):
very we've been through a very deep recession, and so
naturally the electorate is blaming that on the government. I
would imagine some of that will reverse out as interest
rate to continue to get cut this year and the
economy starts to grow again, just because you know, that's
what the Reserve Bank is trying to do. They try
to kill the economy to get inflation done, and now
they're trying to bring the economy back to life to
(04:49):
make sure we don't get this inflation. And as that
happens towards the end of this year, you're probably going
to see the government's poll ratings increase the game, because
that is just that just tends to be how the
way that politics and the economy reacts. Of course could
be wrong, but that's over the long term.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
That's so quickly. What did you make of David Seymour's
call to for privatization.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
Yeah, and that is very interesting. Very quickly. Obviously, the
government will Christpha Latson's ruled out that this term, but
you know John Key ruled it out effectively in his
first term and then campaigned on it in the second term.
So we could be seeing a pretty controversial policy that
will almost certainly be litigated in great detail on the
twenty twenty six campaign trail. So I think, I think
(05:31):
if this government will gets the second term, a debate
of a privatization will certainly be a part of the
coalition talks.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Thomas Cogland, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
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