December 20, 2025 • 7 mins
New Zealand politics has been a whirlwind this year with RBNZ drama, Te Pati Māori's meltdown, the Treaty principles bill, and local body elections.
2026 will be another big year in New Zealand politics as parties gear up for the general election which will take place sometime in the second half of the year.
Political correspondent Thomas Coughlan share shares with Francesca Rudkin with predictions of strategies and successes.
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Edb Our, New Zealand. Hero Political editor Thomas Coglan joins
us now. Good morning, Thomas, good morning, Thank you for
being with us today on our final show. Yes, Merror
Christmas to you too. Of course, this last week has
brought us some good and bad economic news, and we
are heading into the election year with a bit of
a different sort of electoral system and a vastly different
(00:34):
political landscape to that of the last election. Polls have
been a little bit all over the place. It's hard
to tell how things are going to go in twenty
twenty six. I suppose my question to you is, I
feel like we're going to start the year in campaign mode.
I go to the Herald on my phone and I'm
getting National Party ads that look like campaign ads you've got.
(00:56):
You know, Chris Hipkins is very much in campaign mode
as well as are the other individual parties and part
of the coalition. We just we're going to start the
year sort of with a Hessena rahor. It's just not
going to stop until this election.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Yes, I think I think that's exactly what's going to happen.
You're going to the beginning of next year will be
the Caucus retreat, which is the same same way day
that the year begins every year, but obviously an election
in the year. There's a good chance at the National
Party Caucus retreat, which is in the in the week
of the twenty twentieth of January, that will be that
(01:30):
that that you're going to get an election date announcement
at that caucus retreat, which is where just in the
return did it in twenty twenty three. Of course she
also quick that day. Christoph Lutsin is not going to
do that. So basically, the first time Christal Bill Laxon
pops up in the new year's going to be sort
of giving you a speech saying here's why the government's great,
(01:50):
and also here's the election date. So the first time
you see him, it's going to be a campaigning kind
of event. And then here's the real bad news is
that most people think that the election date is going
to be quite late. Now then they can not call
that they can have an election all the way up
into early December. Most people think that they're going to
(02:12):
call it an election for sometime in November, which basically
means you've got most of the next year spent in
campaign mode and then those last few weeks before Christmas
and coalition negotiations with whoever wins. So it's going to
be a very very long, exhausting year New Zealand voters.
I'm afraid.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I hope you've got a good summer break planned, Thomas.
How does the coalition need to approach the new year though,
because there is they do need to balance the campaigning
with governing and getting things done.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
Yeah, I said, there is correct that they there is
a wee bit of legislation that they need to pass,
the RMA reforms they need to pass before the election,
and they're obviously quite that. They're quite fair that that
involves a lot of Select Committee work getting into the
details of what those changes mean, and so yeah, there
(03:05):
is a lot of governing you to do. There's a
budget to put together, so that's sort of in the
middle now. Nihilla Willis is in the middle of putting
together the budget, so she will be talking with ministers
about what they want to go into the budget. She'll
also be talking to the ministers about what she wants
to come out in terms of cuts, so this stuff
seateding and obviously the budget is made. There is sort
(03:25):
of a convention, an informal, a very informal convention that
after the budget is delivered in the past that the
parties go their own sort of separate ways in a
rhetorical sense, and and and they fight a little bit
more and get really into the business of campaigning. So
you'll probably see a bit of a shadow campaign at
(03:47):
the beginning of the year, and then after May when
the budget is introduced and released, and you might see
a bit more on, a bit more buffo even between
the coalition partners.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
What good news, Thomas Goods, thank you. You described Luckson's
sort of end of the year as a bit bumpy,
which is probably a good good description. How serious was
the leadership challenge against him?
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Yes, one of them been away bit you for missing
actually bumpy and retrospeaks. Yeah, it was. It was. I
think it was one of those leadership challenges where people
were just asking questions and and people were just saying, well, look,
you know, we could have a leadership change, and what
would you think of that? And so no one's actually
(04:25):
hitting the phone saying like right, it's on, will you
support me, But people are more just picking up the phone,
having a beer with someone and saying, well, what would
you think if we had a if we had a
bit of a change a changeover. So in that sense,
in that sense, it was real, but it wasn't advanced.
I think it's probably their way to put us and
(04:46):
I don't think it was either, for there was never
a sense that this was ready to go to caucus
to actually formally, formally formally do a changeover. So it
was it was in the it was in the realm
of hypothetical, but it was getting pretty real.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
To Patty, Mary have probably had the toughest year. Can
they pull it together in twenty twenty six?
Speaker 3 (05:05):
I used, it's a very od question. I only don't
know the answer to it. And they have had a
pretty tough year, had a very good year to start
with with some and then a good year all the
way until September when they won the Tammick and Maccotto
by election, absolute thrashing, and that by election, and then
it all fell apart. And I really do wonder whether
they can whether they can pull it together, and I
(05:26):
think of it looks like they're going to be booted
out of parliament altogether, they might get a strong sympathy vote.
You recall in twenty seventeen, when some polls suggested that
the Greens might the Greens might disappear from parliament all together.
You had a lot of people sort of crowding around
the Greens and supporting them because they didn't really what
that you meet, Green voice to disappear from parliament. And
so you might see that with Party Mardy that people
(05:46):
and some electorates decide to swing in behind to Party
Mardi's candidate. They're just to ensure that that voice doesn't
disappear altogether. But there was a real chance that they
completely wipe out and lose all six of the seats
that've currently got or four and a bit, I guess
because of other two diffections.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
I suppose it in general, Thomas, if you take a
look at the other parties, if you look at National
Labor and Act in New Zealand first and things, the
Green seemed to have steady things as well. How have
they ended the year? Is everybody looking pretty steady to
head into twenty twenty six?
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Yeah, Like I think I think the Greens administers TODI
the ship they had they had some real wobbles earlier
this term and THEO they had probably one of the
most difficult parliamentary terms that I've ever had with MP
miss behavior, miss behavior and misconducts obviously that they traditionally
had one of their EMPs pass away and then then
they had another EMP, Benjamin Door come in and then
(06:43):
decided to quit a few months later. Yeah, not not
a great term from them, but they seem to stabilize things.
So I've got Kevin Hagen there is chief of Staff,
which will be will be a good thing for them
in terms of stability and influenced laters on the app
They're doing pretty well at the moment, very well and
a really good term from them for a first term
Opposition National obviously a bit of a problem there. They
(07:06):
have lost a lot of support in the last few months,
so they'll be looking to this year overall, I'd say
so they'll be looking to stable Lize Thames and Actors
had a good last few months because they had a
difficult middle of the year. They slunched, but now they're
back in New Zealand versus and polling well that that
had probably one of the best parliamentary terms they've ever
had when they've been in the government usually at this
point in the political in the political cycle, and they'd
(07:29):
be under five percent about piling pretty strong around accent
at the moment, so they're doing quite well.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
Thomas Cochlan enjoyed the rest and the break and the
summer and would look forward to catching up with you
in the new year, to New Christmas, Merry Christmas, Thomas.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rudkin, listen
live to News Talks they'd be from nine am Sunday,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Edb Our, New Zealand. Hero Political editor Thomas Coglan joins
us now. Good morning, Thomas, good morning, Thank you for
being with us today on our final show. Yes, Merror
Christmas to you too. Of course, this last week has
brought us some good and bad economic news, and we
are heading into the election year with a bit of
a different sort of electoral system and a vastly different
(00:34):
political landscape to that of the last election. Polls have
been a little bit all over the place. It's hard
to tell how things are going to go in twenty
twenty six. I suppose my question to you is, I
feel like we're going to start the year in campaign mode.
I go to the Herald on my phone and I'm
getting National Party ads that look like campaign ads you've got.
(00:56):
You know, Chris Hipkins is very much in campaign mode
as well as are the other individual parties and part
of the coalition. We just we're going to start the
year sort of with a Hessena rahor. It's just not
going to stop until this election.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Yes, I think I think that's exactly what's going to happen.
You're going to the beginning of next year will be
the Caucus retreat, which is the same same way day
that the year begins every year, but obviously an election
in the year. There's a good chance at the National
Party Caucus retreat, which is in the in the week
of the twenty twentieth of January, that will be that
(01:30):
that that you're going to get an election date announcement
at that caucus retreat, which is where just in the
return did it in twenty twenty three. Of course she
also quick that day. Christoph Lutsin is not going to
do that. So basically, the first time Christal Bill Laxon
pops up in the new year's going to be sort
of giving you a speech saying here's why the government's great,
(01:50):
and also here's the election date. So the first time
you see him, it's going to be a campaigning kind
of event. And then here's the real bad news is
that most people think that the election date is going
to be quite late. Now then they can not call
that they can have an election all the way up
into early December. Most people think that they're going to
(02:12):
call it an election for sometime in November, which basically
means you've got most of the next year spent in
campaign mode and then those last few weeks before Christmas
and coalition negotiations with whoever wins. So it's going to
be a very very long, exhausting year New Zealand voters.
I'm afraid.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I hope you've got a good summer break planned, Thomas.
How does the coalition need to approach the new year though,
because there is they do need to balance the campaigning
with governing and getting things done.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
Yeah, I said, there is correct that they there is
a wee bit of legislation that they need to pass,
the RMA reforms they need to pass before the election,
and they're obviously quite that. They're quite fair that that
involves a lot of Select Committee work getting into the
details of what those changes mean, and so yeah, there
(03:05):
is a lot of governing you to do. There's a
budget to put together, so that's sort of in the
middle now. Nihilla Willis is in the middle of putting
together the budget, so she will be talking with ministers
about what they want to go into the budget. She'll
also be talking to the ministers about what she wants
to come out in terms of cuts, so this stuff
seateding and obviously the budget is made. There is sort
(03:25):
of a convention, an informal, a very informal convention that
after the budget is delivered in the past that the
parties go their own sort of separate ways in a
rhetorical sense, and and and they fight a little bit
more and get really into the business of campaigning. So
you'll probably see a bit of a shadow campaign at
(03:47):
the beginning of the year, and then after May when
the budget is introduced and released, and you might see
a bit more on, a bit more buffo even between
the coalition partners.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
What good news, Thomas Goods, thank you. You described Luckson's
sort of end of the year as a bit bumpy,
which is probably a good good description. How serious was
the leadership challenge against him?
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Yes, one of them been away bit you for missing
actually bumpy and retrospeaks. Yeah, it was. It was. I
think it was one of those leadership challenges where people
were just asking questions and and people were just saying, well, look,
you know, we could have a leadership change, and what
would you think of that? And so no one's actually
(04:25):
hitting the phone saying like right, it's on, will you
support me, But people are more just picking up the phone,
having a beer with someone and saying, well, what would
you think if we had a if we had a
bit of a change a changeover. So in that sense,
in that sense, it was real, but it wasn't advanced.
I think it's probably their way to put us and
(04:46):
I don't think it was either, for there was never
a sense that this was ready to go to caucus
to actually formally, formally formally do a changeover. So it
was it was in the it was in the realm
of hypothetical, but it was getting pretty real.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
To Patty, Mary have probably had the toughest year. Can
they pull it together in twenty twenty six?
Speaker 3 (05:05):
I used, it's a very od question. I only don't
know the answer to it. And they have had a
pretty tough year, had a very good year to start
with with some and then a good year all the
way until September when they won the Tammick and Maccotto
by election, absolute thrashing, and that by election, and then
it all fell apart. And I really do wonder whether
they can whether they can pull it together, and I
(05:26):
think of it looks like they're going to be booted
out of parliament altogether, they might get a strong sympathy vote.
You recall in twenty seventeen, when some polls suggested that
the Greens might the Greens might disappear from parliament all together.
You had a lot of people sort of crowding around
the Greens and supporting them because they didn't really what
that you meet, Green voice to disappear from parliament. And
so you might see that with Party Mardy that people
(05:46):
and some electorates decide to swing in behind to Party
Mardi's candidate. They're just to ensure that that voice doesn't
disappear altogether. But there was a real chance that they
completely wipe out and lose all six of the seats
that've currently got or four and a bit, I guess
because of other two diffections.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
I suppose it in general, Thomas, if you take a
look at the other parties, if you look at National
Labor and Act in New Zealand first and things, the
Green seemed to have steady things as well. How have
they ended the year? Is everybody looking pretty steady to
head into twenty twenty six?
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Yeah, Like I think I think the Greens administers TODI
the ship they had they had some real wobbles earlier
this term and THEO they had probably one of the
most difficult parliamentary terms that I've ever had with MP
miss behavior, miss behavior and misconducts obviously that they traditionally
had one of their EMPs pass away and then then
they had another EMP, Benjamin Door come in and then
(06:43):
decided to quit a few months later. Yeah, not not
a great term from them, but they seem to stabilize things.
So I've got Kevin Hagen there is chief of Staff,
which will be will be a good thing for them
in terms of stability and influenced laters on the app
They're doing pretty well at the moment, very well and
a really good term from them for a first term
Opposition National obviously a bit of a problem there. They
(07:06):
have lost a lot of support in the last few months,
so they'll be looking to this year overall, I'd say
so they'll be looking to stable Lize Thames and Actors
had a good last few months because they had a
difficult middle of the year. They slunched, but now they're
back in New Zealand versus and polling well that that
had probably one of the best parliamentary terms they've ever
had when they've been in the government usually at this
point in the political in the political cycle, and they'd
(07:29):
be under five percent about piling pretty strong around accent
at the moment, so they're doing quite well.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
Thomas Cochlan enjoyed the rest and the break and the
summer and would look forward to catching up with you
in the new year, to New Christmas, Merry Christmas, Thomas.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rudkin, listen
live to News Talks they'd be from nine am Sunday,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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