Punch A Hole, See What Happens: Mike Lyons Talks To Armstrong & Getty

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Military analyst Mike Clients, who served with various military organizations
both the US and Europe throughout his career, respected voice
on a number of networks publications. Mike, welcome, how are
you sir? Hey, guy's great to be back with you.
I saw how surprising was this, uh, the success of
this counter offensive and how successful was it? No, very surprising,
and it's clearly something that Ukraine had been planning for strategically.

(00:23):
It looks like they had some kind of faint that
went on in the south and care soon where Russia
can't lose. They can't I If they lose a battle
down there, then they start to lose Crimea, then they
lose some of the land that they had taken seven
or eight years ago. UM. But what they were able
to do is take an economy of force mission, which
means they put less people there in Carson from UH,
faked an offensive there and brought the majority of the

(00:45):
troops to the north in our Kiev, where they did
a classic pincer movement and we're able to you know,
route Russian soldiers that likely were withdrawing anyway, and they
were moving to to the east and to the south. UM.
But this is a real, real, tremendous moral victory for
Ukraine as they take back land that has been occupied

(01:06):
by Russia since March Um. I think, you know again,
this is a great day for them. They win a battle,
but the question still remains us whether or not they
can win the war or not. Yeah, A couple of
different dynamics in opposition to each other have got me interested.
Number One, I understand that some of the economics s
actions against Russia, limitations on exports and and that sort
of thing, are going to make it more and more

(01:28):
difficult for them to resupply their forces. On the other hand,
they still are a much larger country which with many
more young men they could call up. How do you
see that that kind of opposing dynamics working. So you
look in history and you find what what olgies there existing,
and you see that wars that start what they think
they're going to be over quick It's called the Allerle Battle.

(01:48):
The short war kind of mentality that which Russia had.
They thought this was going to be over very quickly
in a in a fast few days. But now two
d days later it's into this scalemate war. But Christian
and as history is shown the country that ends up
winning this kind of war, the ones that have the
higher industrial strength. Well, that's still Russia. Russia still has

(02:08):
this capacity, as you said, to put the troops and
material and men and into this fight, whereas Ukraine is
going to be somewhat limited. However, it now comes down
to the West. If the West does resupply, if the
West does provide material, we have the Germans that should
be providing pans or tanks and the like, but they
haven't haven't done them yet. Um. If the West stills
remains strong at this then they can possibly extend this out.

(02:32):
But but again history does show that that that you
still have to look at Russian So they have tremendous capability,
which is why we can't say that this is they
haven't They're losing, but they haven't lost yet. In Ukraine
is winning, but they haven't one yet either. How much
reinvolved in this counter offensive, do you have any idea
It's got to do with intelligence and the artillery systems

(02:52):
and the fact that we were able to deliver munitions
basically on time. If we're chasing the Russians on the
other side of the of the of the river, that
they all sort river. I think that, Um, you know,
we we were providing them the kind of information that
allowed the Ukraine military to attack where they knew that
Russia was weak, and they you know, kind of the

(03:12):
the old saying, kind of punch a hole in something
and see what happens. Well, every time they punched a
hole there, uh, they kept going further on further. That's
the only way I can see them doing this. I mean,
some of those Russian units left behind uh food, the
rations that were in in in uh in containers and
the like. I mean, we're treating armies to do things

(03:32):
that are crazy all the time. But the amount of convoys,
the prisoners of all all these things, the Russians couldn't
get out of there fast enough. And I just look
at that and say, you know, we we had the intel.
We gave them the intel to know where they could attack.
So they were likely had great optics. Russia was likely blinded,
didn't know what was going on, and allowed the Ukraine
forces to really route the Russian forces there. So what

(03:54):
you're saying about, you know, the bigger country, greater industrial output,
it's undeniable. Um, but I'm picturing what the next you know,
chapter of the Russian effort might look like and I'm
picturing worse supplies, even more antiquated arms and constcripts they've
called up. I mean, presumably the first wave of guys
was the best they had. Yeah, they're they're they're getting

(04:16):
their most of their conventional forces destroyed right now on
the field. Um, what does what does China do to
China allow its client state to be humiliated like this? Um,
we see that they're getting are totally shells from North Korea.
And that's because likely the things they had in stores
for the past twenty years that they they're pulling out
have been rusted and they can't use it. They can't,
they're not they're not able to um to fire them effectively.

(04:40):
Uh So again you lay this all over, but they
still have this induct industrial strength. Think North first, the
South in the Civil War, right as much as the
South fought admirably in certain places. I mean, you know,
July three, eighteen sixty three, if that day goes any different,
If pickets charged, um succeeds and the South gets to
the high watermark and the North loses that battle, we
have a completely different country. Well that's what's happening right

(05:02):
now there that Ukraine military is finding ferociously doing a
lot of things on support. But the bottom line has
never grinded down eventually by the North because it had
more industrial power. That's what's gonna take place here now.
It's not going to happen overnight, but that's what's gonna
happen over the next six months. Wow. See your referenced
that particular Civil war battle. Um, so that's the way
a big, big war can go, just that one that

(05:25):
one day, that one battle, that one decision. Huh yeah,
I think so. I think you look at things overnight saying,
like dd a June. There are certain times in history
we had that day gone differently, the world's completely changed.
I think that's the most significant day. That get it.
That day in Geinsburg was the most significant day in
the nineteenth century. I think. I think every teenager in

(05:45):
America should be paid to go to Gettysburg and see
the sacrifice that was made that day by Union soldiers
for those three days, and and in particular both sides,
both sides, both north and south, on the field that day.
Amen to that, you know, I was just rereading an
account of Gettysburg again, which they made clear that at
a couple of critical moments there was a literal foot
race for the high ground and guys who got their

(06:07):
three strides first one and and repelled the rebels. So
anyway to that point, Mike lyons military analysts on the line, Uh,
it's just one more note because I can't let it go.
What the hell's up with Germany? Why are they not delivering?
Is it their domestic politics or what it's it's it's annoying. Yeah, No,
it's hard to say domestic politics since you know, you

(06:28):
think about where Germany was eighty years ago and where
they are today, and there's you know, they have they
do have the largest GDP of all those European countries.
I think, for example, if they don't get in the game,
that you're gonna see the polls and you're gonna see
the Ukraine absolutely sabotage North Stream and North Dream to
those pipelines. Are gonna make sure that Germany doesn't get
anything from Russia. It's not coming from there at least,

(06:49):
I don't know. I think they everybody wants to wake
up one day and have it be February twenty one,
where this all just kind of goes away. Um, but
they own in those tanks, say old them, the artillery pieces,
air defense platforms. Germany has the most capability of those
of those NATO countries right now to make a difference.
And and right now they haven't been in The question

(07:10):
is that, you know what are they going to get
in again in the game. They won't because uh, they
still are hoping among hope that some deal can get
worked down. My final question the Wall Street Journal editorial
board today saying we need to be concerned about putting
using nuclear weapons? Is that still something we should concern
ourselves with? How much probably tactical nukes. I don't think that.

(07:31):
I think it escalates things, that it hurts both sides obviously,
but it also would require then, um, you know, Russian
citizens would get more involved because I know Ukraine doesn't
have these nukes. They can try to say they're coming
from NATO. But I think that we're still a little
bit of ways from that. I don't expect him to
to do that right now. You know, he's got he's

(07:51):
gonna probably try to wait this out for six months.
He's gonna try to freeze out Europe. He's going to
hope that Western ryance fails, and he hopes that two
years from now he'll be able to claim victory. But
right now he's he's really the Russian military isn't really
bad shape. Mike Clients, military analyst, Mike, always enlightening. Thanks
a million for the time. We appreciate it. So then

(08:13):
the political stuff that you're just talking about with Germany,
Ian Bremer, you know, he studies this sort of thing
for a living, but he doesn't think the European countries
are gonna cave on this energy commitment, that they're gonna
go ahead and really suck it up and have a
really harsh, difficult, expensive winter and are and are willing

(08:33):
to uh to sacrifice in a way that you know,
as is often the case, we as Americans aren't actually
having to sacrifice other than tax dollars um and we're
stealing those from our children as usual deficit spending. Right um,
the Europeans are gonna, they're gonna, they're gonna notice it
right away. They're gonna they're they're what it's gonna cost

(08:54):
to heat your home is just gonna be crazy if
you can at all. But Ian Bremer seems to think
that based on all the bowling and I saw some
of the other days what not, like eighties and ninety
percentile approval for continuing to support the Ukrainians, that they
aren't they in Europe, Yeah, that they aren't going to cave. Well,
sunny Spain and Portugal, in the south of France, they

(09:15):
need to take refugees from northern Europe at least for
the wintertime. A bunch of fat, pale Germans stretched out
on the beach there in Portugal, for instance, just just
to help out. I just think that could be a
big deal. I think I think Putin is counting on
here winners coming. That's when they cave, that's when they
all turn against it. And uh and I get my
big advantage. And if, if, if Europe survives the winter

(09:37):
with the population still being supportive of the war in Ukraine,
I think Putin's gonna have a long spring and summer. Yeah, yeah,
it could be. Well, Germany give him those tanks. What
is this? What is your story? Germany? So weak, big
promises and no delivery. Uh, Barre strong and Jetty