September 23, 2022 • 11 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
If you don't know why you're fighting, you don't fight
very hard. I think that's a piece of this war
that that we have to understand. UH, the Ukrainians don't
have the same weapons, they don't have the same numbers
as the Russian army, but they have the will to
fight because they're fighting for their homeland. When you listen
to these people being drafted, many say I'm not gonna
go fight, but those that do say they're gonna go fight,
(00:23):
they don't even they can't even explain why. So I
was wondering about that myself and I thought we'd ask
somebody who knows. Mike Lions military endless we love have
to have on the show with these matters. Went to
West Point, has an M B A um all kinds
of military background stuff that I can tell you about
in a little bit. Bronze STARFER'S ACTIONS IN COMBAT. Mike Clins,
(00:44):
welcome back to the Armstrong and getty show. Take good money, guys.
You know, I'm surprised at that take by a historian,
because you cannot dismiss this mobilization of these Russian troops
as really inconsequential. You look at every time in history.
The show at the larger industrial complex nation, even as
they lose battles along the way, wins these wars of attrition.
(01:06):
The Russia will figure out a way to get three
hundred thousand men to the front there to to reinforce,
and we'll talk about this in a second reinforce units
that are in real danger of being surrounded and almost
destroyed that they have there right now. But they'll figure
it out and they'll get them there and they'll be
fodder and they'll all die and, but, but that's what
they'll they'll do because that's what they've done historically for
(01:27):
the past thousand years. So it's not over by any
stretch of the imagination. Ukraine is going to have to
capitalize on this, the kind of lull on the Russian
side here in the next few months, hopefully during the wintertime,
in order for them to even try to gain some
kind of success. But it's going to still remain a
stalemate as long as as Russia is going to continue
to bring those kind of numbers to the to the front. Well,
(01:49):
that's one of the reasons we like to have you on,
because you're certainly not a guy that goes with just
whatever the conventional wisdom is on cable lows at the time.
I appreciate you saying that, because that's the opposite of
what I'm hearing most sleep. But to back up just
a second. We we've been playing this clip from David
petreus Um uh UH, who was on CNN a week
(02:11):
or so ago, and he said after, you know, the
big blitzkrieg from Ukraine driving the Russians out of a
bunch of different areas and the success they had over
that Um several day period, David Petrea said the outcome
is no longer in doubt. Ukraine will win. It's just
a matter of time. Pretty definitive statement. Do you do?
You agree with I don't know. You know again, what's
(02:33):
happened is this. The battle has now been been been
formed in the south and the elite Russian units are
they're trying to hold off what was initially the second
offense of of the Ukraine army and not not the
primary objective there, because Ukraine actually used that to the
to the east and to to take back land and
(02:54):
had lost before. What they ended up doing was dropping
all these bridges along the Dnepro river track, being those
elite Russian units now here's what will allow Ukraine to
win or claim more victory, and that is it's one
thing to see, you know, hundreds of soldiers that have
been surrendering ourselves, but you could see ten or twenty
thousand surrender in that part of the country and then
(03:16):
I'll change my mind and say, okay, then they have
a much better chance of winning. And that's possible because
right now we've created a kind of a battle of
the bulb situation where those troops are surrounded, won't be
able to get resupplied. Very simply, they need the men
to try to reassemble bridges and reassemble supply lines that
that have to come and if they don't get that
done in the next few months, especially, winner comes and
(03:38):
they're gonna starve and freeze to death. It'll it'll be
a tremendous advantage on the side of Ukraine. So, you know,
again I'm just surprised to hear fourth star make that
kind of comment, given the fact that Russia has tremendous
industrial superiority. As long as the West continues to support Ukraine,
then then there is some parody, at least on that side. Yeah,
(03:58):
you're talking about the history of Russia. I've read enough
history of whether they're fighting Napoleon or or Hitler, Russia
has always been willing to just feed human beings into
battle until they until they finally get their way. Um,
so I've heard. I've heard it said. You've probably seen
the videos of the lines at the border of Russia
and Georgia. I mean miles long, of of young men
(04:20):
trying to get out of the country. And you know,
the one way flights all sold out. We've all heard that.
And but they're loaded today, right now, they are loading
people on buses and heading them my guests. I don't
know where to train them up and put them in
a uniform. How long will it take before these guys
are actually in the field with a gun? I heard months,
but are you thinking it's gonna be faster? Not? Yeah,
probably months. Um, maybe some that are closer a little sooner.
(04:42):
But and the and the rest again doesn't care that
they're having low morale or they don't care that they
won't have great weapons. They'll just literally pick weapons off
off the ground from dead Russian soldiers that they keep,
that they leave on the battlefield. Um, they also have
eleven time zones to go and get troops from so.
So they have the manpower that the media is showing
(05:03):
just these kind of snippets of of these small protesters,
but for every one of those there's ten thousand that
are just lining up and going because they have written
no choice, because they'll get thrown the gulag if if
they don't go. So Um. So you know that this
is a country that doesn't care about things like emotional
intelligence and troop morale, all these things that are there
are factors in our military that you keep you hear
(05:23):
people talk about all the time. They don't care. All
all they need is bodies to show up at the
front to to to stem the tide of a potential
Ukrainian offense. UH, they care about destruction. That's the only
way that they project power. Yeah, that's interesting. You've probably
been on the field up against people that didn't necessarily
have a lot to fight for, but they find a
(05:45):
reason to fight. What's what's that all about? At some point?
Is it just survival or are you fighting for your friends? Yeah,
usually you go to war for the guide to left
to the right of you. You don't necessarily that's if
they don't fight for your country, so to speak, and
I do remember that. You know, I think we talked
about we saw, we heard stories, for example, of Russians
leaving behind food and mermaid cans. They're the same thing.
(06:06):
We saw that Desert Storm. We saw, uh, you know,
the enemy doesn't want to fight. But this, the difference
here is that this is Russia saying that this is
Russian land. Now, Vladimir Putin is telling you know they're
they're going to annex these regions. Here they think they're
fighting for their country, Um, but you put that on
the other side, the Ukraine military on the offensive is
(06:28):
fighting truly for something, getting back land they lost eight
years seven years ago, back when Russia took it back
in Um and. And if they keep going in the way,
in the way they're going, if they can threaten, for example, Crimea,
now Russia is really strategically hurt because that's probably their Alamo.
They can't lose Crimea. They have Sebastopol, they have the
(06:49):
only warm water port there. They were they were leasing
that land from Russia Prior Uh. They have to keep that.
So I think you'll see the majority of the mobilized
troops go to the south, go to Crimea go to
those areas to try to reinforce to keep mass effections
from taking place. So how much do you take the
nuclear threat seriously from Putin? I know we've been talking
(07:12):
about this for going on seven months now, but is
he any more likely than he was before to actually
go nuclear? I think that's the last thing he draws from.
It's going to depend how this mobilization goes. I think
that it's always on the table. It won't be as
UM devastating if he keeps it within the tactical nuke side,
as he'll just literally hit infrastructure go after civilians. It'll
(07:34):
fix the condensed force on the ground somewhat, but they'll
likely stay tucked up close to the Russian troops, knowing
that you can't fire a tactical nuke on Ukraine forces
there because of the of the fallout and the damage
could possibly hit Russian troops. But then I might be
wrong because he doesn't care about Russian troops anyway. You
know he's he's eliminated layers within his chain of command
(07:55):
and I think that's a lot to do with if
he does have to fire a nuclear weapon, he wants
to get it down to the execution phase as fast
as possible, because usually there's two man controlled any kind
of nuclear weapons. He doesn't want to get anybody in
between that order to all of a sudden decide, you
know what, we're not doing this. It's not the right
thing to do. That's not rush. Is Not about they're
not about the right thing. They're they're about doing what
(08:16):
I tell you to do. And so I think that's
why he's eliminated these these these impediments within the chain
of command because if he makes that order, he wants
to make sure to carry down. Wow, that is really interesting.
I gotta ask you because Joe Biden said something on
Sunday night that certainly got Joe and I his attention,
when he stated that US lives would be at stake
(08:40):
in Taiwan if China decided to invade Taiwan. How do
you feel about that? Yeah, we have to steer clear
from Taiwan. We we don't. What's the deterrence right now?
Is the only thing we can do to deter China
from doing anything in Taiwan? Isn't another kind of alliance
that doesn't seem to be being put together right now,
(09:02):
which it should be. It should be the g seven.
You know, China needs imports as much as they export things. Right,
I mean obviously a three thousand walmarts in America go
broke if they're not getting stuff from China. But on
the other side, China needs wheat, they need things from
the United States and Um, it's going to have to
be a non military to turn in order for us
to keep China from doing that, and it's got to
(09:22):
be the whole g seven saying we're gonna put sanctions,
real sanctions, on China that will actually be a lot
worse than, you know, Donald Trump's uh trade tariffs that
were that were put on because because if they if
there are people start as China has those kinds of
internal problems and they have revolution and that's what it's
going to take there. So I think we've not done
a good job. We're talking tough and it's military about
(09:44):
China right now, but if you think about it, our
our diplomats need to be clearing their desks and working
on a non military deterrent solution, which I think is
the g seven. I think it's the major countries of
the world thaying you just can't do this, we're gonna
shut you off in a way that you've never been
shut off before. Yeah, so I was listening to uh,
one of my favorite pundits the other day, Satan we we, we, we.
(10:04):
We should do the same thing that we've done with
Russia and Ukraine. We and it's working. Worlds is rallied
on our side and not on Russia's side and over time,
you know, the right thing will happen. Probably do the
same thing with China. How would you feel about U
S marines in Taiwan fighting the Chinese? Not a good no,
(10:26):
it's not a good look. I think that they still
out numbers us there and China will have I still
think China is that declining power, and that's not necessarily
their military has not proven itself to actually, when it's
in the crucible of battle, whether they can do something.
But we have to get to a season. I go
back to Ukraine. Let's get to a season here in Ukraine,
because if the Germans and the Italians are freezing, they
might get weak in the knees and decide to back
(10:48):
out of that. That can happen. That can happen in China.
Go back to the age of that. We've got to
have Um that alliance put together beforehand. Let's let's try
to let's try to cut that problem off before, before
it comes an issue that the Chinese, if they decide
to do LURA battle, if they decide to go after
US carrier, sink a carrier, try to put you know,
try to get this one battle over very quickly. They'll
(11:11):
make a strategic mistake that that that, I think, will
really mean the downfall of China as well as we're
seeing almost the downfall of Russia to client states. Frankly,
they're both working together at this point. Mike Leons one
of a handful of follows man when something breaks, Military
Wise War wise, you're one of the twitter feeds I
go to because I always wonder what you think. Appreciate
you coming on today. Thanks for me Armstrong and getty.
If you don't know why you're fighting, you don't fight
very hard. I think that's a piece of this war
that that we have to understand. UH, the Ukrainians don't
have the same weapons, they don't have the same numbers
as the Russian army, but they have the will to
fight because they're fighting for their homeland. When you listen
to these people being drafted, many say I'm not gonna
go fight, but those that do say they're gonna go fight,
(00:23):
they don't even they can't even explain why. So I
was wondering about that myself and I thought we'd ask
somebody who knows. Mike Lions military endless we love have
to have on the show with these matters. Went to
West Point, has an M B A um all kinds
of military background stuff that I can tell you about
in a little bit. Bronze STARFER'S ACTIONS IN COMBAT. Mike Clins,
(00:44):
welcome back to the Armstrong and getty show. Take good money, guys.
You know, I'm surprised at that take by a historian,
because you cannot dismiss this mobilization of these Russian troops
as really inconsequential. You look at every time in history.
The show at the larger industrial complex nation, even as
they lose battles along the way, wins these wars of attrition.
(01:06):
The Russia will figure out a way to get three
hundred thousand men to the front there to to reinforce,
and we'll talk about this in a second reinforce units
that are in real danger of being surrounded and almost
destroyed that they have there right now. But they'll figure
it out and they'll get them there and they'll be
fodder and they'll all die and, but, but that's what
they'll they'll do because that's what they've done historically for
(01:27):
the past thousand years. So it's not over by any
stretch of the imagination. Ukraine is going to have to
capitalize on this, the kind of lull on the Russian
side here in the next few months, hopefully during the wintertime,
in order for them to even try to gain some
kind of success. But it's going to still remain a
stalemate as long as as Russia is going to continue
to bring those kind of numbers to the to the front. Well,
(01:49):
that's one of the reasons we like to have you on,
because you're certainly not a guy that goes with just
whatever the conventional wisdom is on cable lows at the time.
I appreciate you saying that, because that's the opposite of
what I'm hearing most sleep. But to back up just
a second. We we've been playing this clip from David
petreus Um uh UH, who was on CNN a week
(02:11):
or so ago, and he said after, you know, the
big blitzkrieg from Ukraine driving the Russians out of a
bunch of different areas and the success they had over
that Um several day period, David Petrea said the outcome
is no longer in doubt. Ukraine will win. It's just
a matter of time. Pretty definitive statement. Do you do?
You agree with I don't know. You know again, what's
(02:33):
happened is this. The battle has now been been been
formed in the south and the elite Russian units are
they're trying to hold off what was initially the second
offense of of the Ukraine army and not not the
primary objective there, because Ukraine actually used that to the
to the east and to to take back land and
(02:54):
had lost before. What they ended up doing was dropping
all these bridges along the Dnepro river track, being those
elite Russian units now here's what will allow Ukraine to
win or claim more victory, and that is it's one
thing to see, you know, hundreds of soldiers that have
been surrendering ourselves, but you could see ten or twenty
thousand surrender in that part of the country and then
(03:16):
I'll change my mind and say, okay, then they have
a much better chance of winning. And that's possible because
right now we've created a kind of a battle of
the bulb situation where those troops are surrounded, won't be
able to get resupplied. Very simply, they need the men
to try to reassemble bridges and reassemble supply lines that
that have to come and if they don't get that
done in the next few months, especially, winner comes and
(03:38):
they're gonna starve and freeze to death. It'll it'll be
a tremendous advantage on the side of Ukraine. So, you know,
again I'm just surprised to hear fourth star make that
kind of comment, given the fact that Russia has tremendous
industrial superiority. As long as the West continues to support Ukraine,
then then there is some parody, at least on that side. Yeah,
(03:58):
you're talking about the history of Russia. I've read enough
history of whether they're fighting Napoleon or or Hitler, Russia
has always been willing to just feed human beings into
battle until they until they finally get their way. Um,
so I've heard. I've heard it said. You've probably seen
the videos of the lines at the border of Russia
and Georgia. I mean miles long, of of young men
(04:20):
trying to get out of the country. And you know,
the one way flights all sold out. We've all heard that.
And but they're loaded today, right now, they are loading
people on buses and heading them my guests. I don't
know where to train them up and put them in
a uniform. How long will it take before these guys
are actually in the field with a gun? I heard months,
but are you thinking it's gonna be faster? Not? Yeah,
probably months. Um, maybe some that are closer a little sooner.
(04:42):
But and the and the rest again doesn't care that
they're having low morale or they don't care that they
won't have great weapons. They'll just literally pick weapons off
off the ground from dead Russian soldiers that they keep,
that they leave on the battlefield. Um, they also have
eleven time zones to go and get troops from so.
So they have the manpower that the media is showing
(05:03):
just these kind of snippets of of these small protesters,
but for every one of those there's ten thousand that
are just lining up and going because they have written
no choice, because they'll get thrown the gulag if if
they don't go. So Um. So you know that this
is a country that doesn't care about things like emotional
intelligence and troop morale, all these things that are there
are factors in our military that you keep you hear
(05:23):
people talk about all the time. They don't care. All
all they need is bodies to show up at the
front to to to stem the tide of a potential
Ukrainian offense. UH, they care about destruction. That's the only
way that they project power. Yeah, that's interesting. You've probably
been on the field up against people that didn't necessarily
have a lot to fight for, but they find a
(05:45):
reason to fight. What's what's that all about? At some point?
Is it just survival or are you fighting for your friends? Yeah,
usually you go to war for the guide to left
to the right of you. You don't necessarily that's if
they don't fight for your country, so to speak, and
I do remember that. You know, I think we talked
about we saw, we heard stories, for example, of Russians
leaving behind food and mermaid cans. They're the same thing.
(06:06):
We saw that Desert Storm. We saw, uh, you know,
the enemy doesn't want to fight. But this, the difference
here is that this is Russia saying that this is
Russian land. Now, Vladimir Putin is telling you know they're
they're going to annex these regions. Here they think they're
fighting for their country, Um, but you put that on
the other side, the Ukraine military on the offensive is
(06:28):
fighting truly for something, getting back land they lost eight
years seven years ago, back when Russia took it back
in Um and. And if they keep going in the way,
in the way they're going, if they can threaten, for example, Crimea,
now Russia is really strategically hurt because that's probably their Alamo.
They can't lose Crimea. They have Sebastopol, they have the
(06:49):
only warm water port there. They were they were leasing
that land from Russia Prior Uh. They have to keep that.
So I think you'll see the majority of the mobilized
troops go to the south, go to Crimea go to
those areas to try to reinforce to keep mass effections
from taking place. So how much do you take the
nuclear threat seriously from Putin? I know we've been talking
(07:12):
about this for going on seven months now, but is
he any more likely than he was before to actually
go nuclear? I think that's the last thing he draws from.
It's going to depend how this mobilization goes. I think
that it's always on the table. It won't be as
UM devastating if he keeps it within the tactical nuke side,
as he'll just literally hit infrastructure go after civilians. It'll
(07:34):
fix the condensed force on the ground somewhat, but they'll
likely stay tucked up close to the Russian troops, knowing
that you can't fire a tactical nuke on Ukraine forces
there because of the of the fallout and the damage
could possibly hit Russian troops. But then I might be
wrong because he doesn't care about Russian troops anyway. You
know he's he's eliminated layers within his chain of command
(07:55):
and I think that's a lot to do with if
he does have to fire a nuclear weapon, he wants
to get it down to the execution phase as fast
as possible, because usually there's two man controlled any kind
of nuclear weapons. He doesn't want to get anybody in
between that order to all of a sudden decide, you
know what, we're not doing this. It's not the right
thing to do. That's not rush. Is Not about they're
not about the right thing. They're they're about doing what
(08:16):
I tell you to do. And so I think that's
why he's eliminated these these these impediments within the chain
of command because if he makes that order, he wants
to make sure to carry down. Wow, that is really interesting.
I gotta ask you because Joe Biden said something on
Sunday night that certainly got Joe and I his attention,
when he stated that US lives would be at stake
(08:40):
in Taiwan if China decided to invade Taiwan. How do
you feel about that? Yeah, we have to steer clear
from Taiwan. We we don't. What's the deterrence right now?
Is the only thing we can do to deter China
from doing anything in Taiwan? Isn't another kind of alliance
that doesn't seem to be being put together right now,
(09:02):
which it should be. It should be the g seven.
You know, China needs imports as much as they export things. Right,
I mean obviously a three thousand walmarts in America go
broke if they're not getting stuff from China. But on
the other side, China needs wheat, they need things from
the United States and Um, it's going to have to
be a non military to turn in order for us
to keep China from doing that, and it's got to
(09:22):
be the whole g seven saying we're gonna put sanctions,
real sanctions, on China that will actually be a lot
worse than, you know, Donald Trump's uh trade tariffs that
were that were put on because because if they if
there are people start as China has those kinds of
internal problems and they have revolution and that's what it's
going to take there. So I think we've not done
a good job. We're talking tough and it's military about
(09:44):
China right now, but if you think about it, our
our diplomats need to be clearing their desks and working
on a non military deterrent solution, which I think is
the g seven. I think it's the major countries of
the world thaying you just can't do this, we're gonna
shut you off in a way that you've never been
shut off before. Yeah, so I was listening to uh,
one of my favorite pundits the other day, Satan we we, we, we.
(10:04):
We should do the same thing that we've done with
Russia and Ukraine. We and it's working. Worlds is rallied
on our side and not on Russia's side and over time,
you know, the right thing will happen. Probably do the
same thing with China. How would you feel about U
S marines in Taiwan fighting the Chinese? Not a good no,
(10:26):
it's not a good look. I think that they still
out numbers us there and China will have I still
think China is that declining power, and that's not necessarily
their military has not proven itself to actually, when it's
in the crucible of battle, whether they can do something.
But we have to get to a season. I go
back to Ukraine. Let's get to a season here in Ukraine,
because if the Germans and the Italians are freezing, they
might get weak in the knees and decide to back
(10:48):
out of that. That can happen. That can happen in China.
Go back to the age of that. We've got to
have Um that alliance put together beforehand. Let's let's try
to let's try to cut that problem off before, before
it comes an issue that the Chinese, if they decide
to do LURA battle, if they decide to go after
US carrier, sink a carrier, try to put you know,
try to get this one battle over very quickly. They'll
(11:11):
make a strategic mistake that that that, I think, will
really mean the downfall of China as well as we're
seeing almost the downfall of Russia to client states. Frankly,
they're both working together at this point. Mike Leons one
of a handful of follows man when something breaks, Military
Wise War wise, you're one of the twitter feeds I
go to because I always wonder what you think. Appreciate
you coming on today. Thanks for me Armstrong and getty.
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